Catastrophic hydrothermal mudslide could last 100 years, say scientists
Pastor Dale Morgan
Catastrophic hydrothermal mudslide could last 100 years, say scientists*
· Land in East Java likely to collapse as thousands flee
· Attempts to seal channels will 'probably not succeed'
John Aglionby in Jakarta
Tuesday September 26, 2006
The Guardian
Mud, gas and boiling water that have been gushing out of the ground in
East Java since May, submerging half a dozen villages and 20 factories,
could continue for a century with "catastrophic consequences", European
experts said yesterday. Efforts to seal the channels through which the
mud is escaping are unlikely to succeed, and it is impossible to tell
how much fluid remains underground, according to a University of Oslo
geology team.
"It's unlikely to stop permanently for a long time," Adriano Mazzini
told a press conference in Jakarta. "It's hard to say when the
overpressure will have been fully released. It could be one, 10 or 100
years. But to seal it will be very, very difficult." According to Mr
Mazzini, unless the flow stops soon, the affected land, which has
already starting sinking, could subside significantly. "It will be
catastrophic," he said.
The mud started flowing on May 29, a couple of hundred metres from where
the gas company PT Lapindo Brantas was drilling an exploratory well
nearly two miles deep. It has been gushing up to 50,000 cubic metres a
day - or two large bathsfull a second - ever since.
At least four villages will almost certainly have to be destroyed, and
two others have been flooded. More than 11,000 people have evacuated
their homes.
On September 8, the central government, fearing a political disaster as
well as the environmental impact, took command of the operation to stem
the flow, control the flood (which now covers about 400 hectares (1,000
acres) and supervise the social programmes for the affected communities.
A spokesman for the government team told the Guardian the latest
findings were "useful and worrying". He said: "They show we still have a
lot of work to do."
Observers said the president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, had been wise to
intervene. "This could be the achilles heel of this government," said
Dennis Heffernan, a political and business consultant. "Unless more
resources are put to work, we're in danger of a catastrophe on the level
of the Exxon Valdez."
The Exxon Valdez was an oil tanker that sank in Alaska in 1989, causing
widespread environmental devastation.
All the expenses are being borne by Lapindo, which is controlled by the
family of Indonesia's senior welfare minister, Aburizal Bakrie.
Estimated costs are thought to be well over £70m, while the company's
insurance only covered £15m.
Mr Mazzini, whose team has studied mud volcanoes for more than a decade
and spent just under a week on site, said it was impossible to say
conclusively whether the drilling caused the disaster.
There has been speculation that the disaster was caused by Lapindo
failing to use a proper casing during drilling. Mr Mazzini said this was
unlikely. "This is a huge case of overpressure," he said. "A casing
would not have made any difference, I don't think. But I'm not a
drilling expert."
The mudflow is thought to have been caused by one of four possibilities:
gas-charged fluids breaching coral mounds on top of the limestone rock;
a magmatic reaction generating gas; a new-born mud volcano; or
hydrothermal fluids migrating from neighbouring areas.