US answer to global warming: smoke and giant space mirrors
Pastor Dale Morgan
US answer to global warming: smoke and giant space mirrors*
Washington urges scientists to develop ways to reflect sunlight as
'insurance'
David Adam, environment correspondent
Saturday January 27, 2007
The Guardian
Smog above Phoenix, Arizona
Smog above Phoenix, Arizona – US report suggests reflective dust could
reduce warming. Photograph: Deirdre Hamill/AP
The US government wants the world's scientists to develop technology to
block sunlight as a last-ditch way to halt global warming, the Guardian
has learned. It says research into techniques such as giant mirrors in
space or reflective dust pumped into the atmosphere would be "important
insurance" against rising emissions, and has lobbied for such a strategy
to be recommended by a major UN report on climate change, the first part
of which will be published on Friday.
The US has also attempted to steer the UN report, prepared by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), away from conclusions
that would support a new worldwide climate treaty based on binding
targets to reduce emissions - as sought by Tony Blair. It has demanded a
draft of the report be changed to emphasise the benefits of voluntary
agreements and to include criticisms of the Kyoto Protocol, the existing
treaty which the US administration opposes.
The final IPCC report, written by experts from across the world, will
underpin international negotiations to devise a new emissions treaty to
succeed Kyoto, the first phase of which expires in 2012. World
governments were given a draft of the report last year and invited to
comment.
The US response, a copy of which has been obtained by the Guardian, says
the idea of interfering with sunlight should be included in the summary
for policymakers, the prominent chapter at the front of each IPCC
report. It says: "Modifying solar radiance may be an important strategy
if mitigation of emissions fails. Doing the R&D to estimate the
consequences of applying such a strategy is important insurance that
should be taken out. This is a very important possibility that should be
considered."
Scientists have previously estimated that reflecting less than 1% of
sunlight back into space could compensate for the warming generated by
all greenhouse gases emitted since the industrial revolution. Possible
techniques include putting a giant screen into orbit, thousands of tiny,
shiny balloons, or microscopic sulphate droplets pumped into the high
atmosphere to mimic the cooling effects of a volcanic eruption. The IPCC
draft said such ideas were "speculative, uncosted and with potential
unknown side-effects".
The US submission is based on the views of dozens of government
officials and is accompanied by a letter signed by Harlan Watson, senior
climate negotiator at the US state department. It complains the IPCC
draft report is "Kyoto-centric" and it wants to include the work of
economists who have reported "the degree to which the Kyoto framework is
found wanting". It takes issue with a statement that "one weakness of
the [Kyoto] protocol, however, is its non-ratificiation by some
significant greenhouse gas emitters" and asks: "Is this the only
weakness worth mentioning? Are there others?"
It also insists the wording on the ineffectiveness of voluntary
agreements be altered to include "a number of them have had significant
impacts" and complains that overall "the report tends to overstate or
focus on the negative effects of climate change." It also wants more
emphasis on responsibilities of the developing world.
The IPCC report is made up of three sections. The first, on the science
of climate change, will be launched on Friday. Sections on the impact
and mitigation of climate change - in which the US wants to include
references to the sun-blocking technology - will follow later this year.
The likely contents of the report have been an open secret since the
Bush administration posted its draft copy on the internet in April. Next
week's science report will say there is a 90% chance that human activity
is warming the planet, and that global average temperatures will rise
another 1.5C to 5.8C this century depending on emissions. The US
response shows it accepts these statements, but it disagrees with a more
tentative conclusion that rising temperatures have made hurricanes more
powerful.