Food riots of the 21st century
Pastor Dale Morgan
Food riots of the 21st century*
Jonathan Watts
10 January 2008 11:59
The risks of food riots and malnutrition will surge in the next two
years as the global supply of grain comes under more pressure than at
any time in 50 years, according to one of the world’s leading
agricultural researchers.
Recent pasta protests in Italy, tortilla rallies in Mexico and onion
demonstrations in India are just the start of the social instability to
come unless there is a fundamental shift to boost production of staple
foods, warned Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food
Policy Research Institute.
The growing appetite of China and other fast-developing nations has
combined with the expansion of biofuel programmes in the United States
and Europe to transform the global food situation.
After decades of expanding crop yields and falling food prices, the past
year has seen a sharp rise in the cost of wheat, rice, corn, soya and
dairy products.
“Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it
produces for five years now. Stocks of grain and of rice, wheat and
maize are down at levels not seen since the early 1980s,” said Von
Braun, whose organisation is the world’s largest alliance of
agricultural researchers, economists and policy experts.
So far, crises have been averted because states have eaten into national
stocks, but this could be set to change because China, in particular,
has run down its supplies.
“Over the next 12 to 24 months we are in a fairly risky situation. Large
consuming nations, particularly China, will feel pressed to enter
international markets to bid up prices to unusual levels,” Von Braun
warned ahead of a speech to the institute’s AGM in Beijing.
Thanks to its manufacturing prowess China has huge foreign exchange
reserves and could buy the global food crop several times over. But its
consumers are already feeling the cost of food inflation. According to
the local media three shoppers died last month in a stampede at a
supermarket in Chongqing that was offering cheap rapeseed oil. The
threat of instability has prompted Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to make the
fight against food price rises one of his government’s priorities. So
far it seems a losing battle.
Economic growth -- estimated at 11,5% in the first nine months of the
year -- has made Chinese consumers wealthier, while urbanisation and
globalisation has changed their diet. In October the government
announced pork prices were up more than 50%, vegetables 30% and cooking
oil 34% compared with the year before.
The knock-on is felt across the world. In rich nations it means a few
more cents for breakfast cereal in the short term and a slightly higher
cost for toys, clothes and other Chinese goods. But for the world’s
poorest communities the rises will have a potentially devastating effect.
Bangladesh has had to ask for half a million tons of food aid -- a
severe blow to the pride of a country that had been trying to wean
itself off international assistance. Bangladeshi officials say the price
of cooking oil, of which it imports 1,2-million tons a year, has almost
tripled in the past two years because it is now valued as an alternative
to diesel oil. More worryingly, their main staple of rice is hard to buy
at any price because India, Vietnam and Ukraine have cut exports.
Added to this are the pressures caused by global warming, which have
been blamed for the droughts that damaged crops in Australia this year.
The social tensions caused by rising food prices are already evident,
says Von Braun. “The first sign was the tortilla riot in Mexico city,
where 70 000 took to the streets. I think that was only the beginning --
there will be more,” said Von Braun.
“For a year or two countries can stabilise with stocks. But the risk
comes in the next 12 to 24 months. The countries that cannot afford to
buy will be the losers, while those with huge foreign exchange reserves
will bid up the world market.”
Von Braun called on Europe to reconsider its biofuel policies, to
provide more aid to poor nations, to keep markets open and to boost
production. -- © Guardian News & Media Ltd 2007