Britain 'facing energy shortfall'
Pastor Dale Morgan
Britain 'facing energy shortfall'*
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website
Power lines could have too little to carry in five years, the report warns
Britain is likely to face a shortfall in electricity generation within
five to seven years, a report concludes.
Energy and environment consultancy firm Inenco says that the number of
nuclear and coal plants coming out of service over the period makes
shortages likely. Old coal plants, whose operating hours are limited
under European legislation, have been running more than expected because
of higher gas prices.
But other analysts say new plants can be built quickly and shortages
avoided.
Earlier this month, the government announced it was prepared to approve
applications to build new nuclear reactors, but anticipates it would be
10 years before they came on stream.
For black-outs to occur, pretty much everything would have to go wrong
Rob Gross, UKERC
"With the recent announcement about new nuclear stations, there seemed
to be a collective sigh of relief," said Inenco's deputy managing
director Michael Abbott.
"We believe that demand overtakes supply somewhere between 2012 and
2015, creating a serious 'generation gap'."
In its report, to be released later this week, Inenco warns that in the
extreme case, shortages could materialise around the time of the London
Olympics in 2012.
Burning hours
By that time, the last of the ageing fleet of Magnox nuclear reactors
will have closed.
More importantly, a number of older coal-fired stations may also have
closed.
Under the European Large Combustion Plants Directive (LCPD), aimed at
curbing pollutants such as sulphur dioxide, power units built before
1987 must either be modified with modern emissions control equipment, or
operate only for a total of 20,000 hours between 2008 and 2015, when
they must come out of service completely.
Control room of 1960s nuclear power station. Image: PA
UK: Back to the nuclear future
When the legislation was drawn up in 2001, it was assumed that the old,
unmodified plants would operate only at times of high demand.
But recent rapid hikes in the price of gas have induced companies to run
them for longer periods.
Government figures show a 25% rise in coal burning for electricity
generation between 2000 and 2006.
If the trend continues, the unmodified plants are likely to use up their
permitted hours much sooner than expected, and have to close.
Inenco calculates that the capacity of coal and nuclear units likely to
come out of service before 2012 totals more than 10 gigawatts (GW).
That would eliminate about one-seventh of Britain's total capacity. The
first closures of Britain's second generation of nuclear stations, the
advanced gas-cooled reactors (AGRs), and the demise of the remaining
large oil-fired stations would be due within a further three years.
Small options
The most obvious way to fill this "energy gap" would be to build new
gas-fired power stations; but Inenco doubts this will happen quickly enough.
"For the plants to be operational by 2012, they would have to be given
the go-ahead immediately and suffer no delays - a highly unlikely
scenario considering we would need between eight and 10 of them," said
Mr Abbott.
"The other point to consider is that it is unlikely energy producers
will be keen to invest in a technology that they know is going to be
second best when the new nuclear plants come on line."
Wind turbines add capacity, but can provide intermittent power
Rob Gross from Imperial College London, head of policy and technology
assessment at the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), believes Inenco is
presenting a worst-case scenario.
"For black-outs to occur, pretty much everything would have to go
wrong," he said.
"It's important to remember that during the 'dash for gas', between
around 1992 and 2000, around 25GW of new capacity was built, so there is
no reason to expect that new gas plant cannot be constructed quickly."
Currently, he said, gas plants with a combined capacity of about 7GW are
going through the consent procedure. About 6GW of wind capacity is
either in construction or approved, according to the British Wind Energy
Association (BWEA).
"Perhaps studies such as this will help issue a 'wake up' call that
makes new build and other measures happen more quickly," observed Dr Gross.
Other options for filling the energy gap would include making greater
use of the large number of small generators that the National Grid can
call on in time of shortage, and extending the use of contracts that
allow the grid to interrupt supply to industrial customers at peak periods.
Even if the gap is plugged, Inenco predicts the price of electricity in
the years ahead will be higher and more variable than at present.