How bad is climate change really?

[Pastor Dale Morgan]

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Perilous Times

How bad is climate change really? *

15 May 2007 17:56:00 GMT
Nina Brenjo

How bad is climate change really? Can we expect endless droughts and
catastrophic floods or will rising temperatures lead to higher crop
yields and more tourism in many places, asks Der Spiegel's Olaf Stampf.

He believes the truth is somewhere in between. There will be losers, but
some nations stand to gain from climate change.

Most importantly, the end of this world age is getting near, sooner then
we might think, judging by the dire warnings in the media, Stampf says.

The temperatures have fluctuated in both directions in the past and a
rising number of studies by palaeontologists and geologists show this,
he argues.

Granted, the countries in the north - Russia and Canada, for example -
can expect more abundant harvests and more income from tourism. As
Stampf comments, the only negative consequence for Scandinavians is "the
guilty conscience that could come with benefiting from global warming".

But to claim that all developing countries will be devastated by global
warming is simply not correct, he says. The rainfall in Africa is not
expected to decrease much, if at all, except in the south. And contrary
to widespread belief, it's good news for Sahel: the forecasts show that
it will become wetter, not plagued by drought.

Stampf's thoughts could not be further removed from those of British
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett.

The Darfur crisis is a prime example of a place where resources are
dwindling because of climate change, according to Beckett, quoted in
Britain's Guardian newspaper.

According to Beckett, the Nile stands to lose 80 per cent of its flow in
Egypt and, as a consequence, 2 million people could end up displaced by
flooding.

Nobel peace laureate Desmond Tutu agrees. While the "cushioned and
cosseted" of the developed world have so far only felt climate change in
the form of extended summers, the poor of the world are the ones exposed
to the reality of climate change every day, according to Tutu, also
writing in the Guardian.

The snow melting on Kilimanjaro mountain and increasing competition for
grazing lands and water are proof.

Tutu advises those living in the northern hemisphere to think about the
problems the South is facing "next time they reach for the thermostat
switch".

"They should realise that while the problems of the Mozambican farmer
might seem far away, it may not be long before their troubles wash up on
their shores," he writes.

2 responses to “Is climate change a disaster?”

Please note that comments should not be regarded as the views of Reuters.

1. Brad Arnold says:
14 May 2007 12:35:06 GMT

There is about 400 billion tons of methane hydrate in permafrost and
10,000 billion tons under the ocean.

These have partially melted before with catastrophic results. A sudden
release of less than 30 billion tons of methane is like doubling the CO2
in the air.

That is the true danger of global warming.

2. Brad Arnold says:
14 May 2007 12:36:22 GMT

Unless you know about "methane hydrate" (also known as "clathrate" or
"fire-ice"), you don't understand the true threat of global warming.

Methane hydrate is ice that contains more carbon than all fossil fuels
combined! Unlike fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gas when burned,
methane hydrate emits when melted!!