Malaria surge in Kenya tied to global warming
Pastor Dale Morgan
Malaria surge in Kenya tied to global warming*
NAIROBI, Nov 7 (AFP) Nov 07, 2006
Warmer temperatures linked to global warming may be responsible for
surge in malaria cases in Kenya's highlands, once largely free of the
mosquitos that carry the disease, scientists said Tuesday.
Amid continuing debate over the health consequences of climate change,
specifically the spread of vector-borne afflictions like malaria,
scientists reported growing cases in the highlands that correspond to
higher temperatures.
"Malaria is the most climate-sensitive, vector-borne disease affecting
most of the African population," said Andrew Githeko, a researcher with
Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI).
"Both global warming and increased climate variability can increase
malaria transmission," he told AFP on the sidelines of the 12th UN
conference of parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) in Nairobi.
At least 15 Kenyan highland districts, compared to three in 1998, are
now malaria-prone, with the most affected being Nandi Hills in the Rift
Valley, Kisii in western Kenya and the central Mount Kenya region,
according to KEMRI.
The first cases of malaria in these districts, prevously free of the
disease as cooler weather at higher altitude kept malaria-carrying
mosquitos away, occurred in the 1980s and have steadily increased over
the years, it said.
"We have started to experience malaria outside the usual prevalence
area," said Grace Akumu, director of Climate Network Africa, a local
non-governmental organisation.
In 1997, authorities reported a 250-percent surge in cases in the
highland districts at the height of the 1997-1998 El Nino-associated
rains that pummelled the country.
In 2002, a malaria epidemic killed 800 people in Kisii alone and 2,000
others in neighbouring districts, a situation compounded by the fact
that highland residents having weaker immunity because unlike their
lowland cousins they have not usually been exposed to the malaria parasite.
The outbreaks, that even saw malaria break out last year during Kenya's
coldest June to August season, corresponds to the latter stages of a 0.5
degree Celsius rise in highland temperatures over the past 20 years,
they said.
"With global warming, people in the highlands are mostly affected," said
John Githure, head of human health division of the International Centre
for Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE).
"These highlands continue to have higher and higher temperatures," he
told AFP. "We are very worried about what is going to happen if the
average temperature increases further."
"It is the areas where transmission is currently low, such as the
highlands that are most affected," he added.
But theory is not universally accepted and some scientists have sought
to debunk any causal link between malaria and global warming, blaming
the increase on changes in human behaviour and the dynamics of the
spread of the disease.
"I am not a defender of the link between malaria and climate change,"
said Francois Omlin, another ICIPE scientist, attributing it to "the
influence of people towards shaping their environment and the changing
behaviour of mosquitoes."
Among other possible simple causes, he said basic human activity, such
as brickmakers in Kisii who leave open trenches that collect water
during rainy season and provide breeding grounds for the malaria
mosquitos could be blamed.
Omlin and other naysayers insist that statistics to back up a climate
change-malaria link are scant and point to factors such as drug and
pesticide resistance that cannot be ruled out.
Still, the number of malaria cases in the Kenyan highlands is steadily
rising and experts believe the current October to November short rain
season, which forecasters say may extend to early January, combined with
warm December temperatures, is likely to spark another surge.
"We expect an increase of between 50 to 100 percent of malaria cases
from the end of November," said Githeko.