Over Three Million Burmese Severely Affected By Cyclone
Pastor Dale Morgan
Over Three Million Burmese Severely Affected By Cyclone*
The United Nations estimates that as many as 220,000 are missing
following the cyclone and that 63,000 to 101,000 people were killed.
by Staff Writers
Baltimore MD (SPX) May 19, 2008
As many as 3.2 million Burmese are estimated to be seriously affected by
the devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis, according to geographic risk
models developed by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School
of Public Health and Lehman College, CUNY.
Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the researchers calculated
the likely distribution of the population of Burma (also known as
Myanmar) and developed maps of the regions at greatest risk from the
storm's effects.
"We estimate that 20 percent of the population in the four affected
administrative divisions could be affected by Cyclone Nargis," said
Shannon Doocy, PhD, an assistant professor with the Center for Refugee
and Disaster Response, who developed the vulnerability estimates with
colleagues from the Bloomberg School's Center for Public Health and
Human Rights, and from Lehman College.
"These are rough estimates, but our calculations could be of great help
to relief agencies that are trying to provide aid on the ground."
According to the calculations, the Ayeyarwady region was hardest hit,
with 1.8 million people affected; another 1.1 million were potentially
affected in the Yangon administrative division. At least 100,000 people
in both the Bago East and Mon divisions were also affected.
The United Nations estimates that as many as 220,000 are missing
following the cyclone and that 63,000 to 101,000 people were killed.
Major health threats for cyclone survivors include waterborne diseases
such as typhoid, which has already been reported in some areas and
potential outbreaks of dysentery from cholera and E. coli. Measles
outbreaks, which are common in settings of mass displacement, are a
concern for children and a possible threat. Mosquito-borne diseases,
particularly malaria and dengue fever, are prevalent in Burma and are
also significant health risks.
"Right now, the risk of disease outbreaks in Burma is especially
high-much more so than we've typically seen with tropical cyclones in
past decades-because the humanitarian assistance so far has been delayed
and woefully inadequate in scale," said Chris Beyrer, MD, MPH, director
of the Center for Public Health and Human Rights.
"The military regime continues to rebuff offers of assistance from the
international community more than a week after the storm, and they
continue to restrict visas, limit international observers, and insist
upon relying solely on its own response, which by all accounts, is
markedly inadequate."
Beyrer added that international guidelines on human rights and natural
disasters cite the right of all affected populations to evacuation and
other lifesaving measures, protection against negative impacts of
natural hazards, and access to adequate food, water, shelter, sanitation
and health services.
In addition to estimating the population vulnerability, the Bloomberg
School is working with its partners based in the region to provide
assistance to the Burmese people. Eight, five-person relief teams are
working in Rangoon, Burma's largest city, and in the country's delta region.
These teams, which are trained by Hopkins personnel in rapid assessment
and response, are assisting with water purification and the distribution
of food, clothing, medicines and other essentials.
The researchers were supported by a grant from the Human and Social
Dynamics Program at the National Science Foundation.