Cut C02 or Australia will burn: researcher
Pastor Dale Morgan
*Cut C02 or Australia will burn: researcher*
By Julian Drape
May 31, 2007 05:29pm
Article from: AAP
UNLESS action is taken now to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, Australia
will be unable to manage future catastrophic bushfires, leading climate
scientists have warned.
The co-director of the University of New South Wales's climate change
research centre, Andy Pitman, says there will be a 100 to 200 per cent
increase in bushfire risk by 2100 if Australia continues on its path of
high emissions.
Professor Pitman said the nation's governments would be at a loss to
adapt to such a scenario.
But if Australia was able to meet the low emission guidelines set by the
inter-governmental panel on climate change, the increase in bushfire
risk would be just 20 to 30 per cent by 2100, he said.
Prof Pitman told the Bushfire in a Heating World Conference in Sydney
today the low emission regime would allow governments to adapt to the
increased risk by introducing new planning regulations, building codes
and education programs.
"However, if we continue to track a high emissions future I don't
believe the increase in bushfire risk would be adaptable to," he said.
Prof Pitman warned it was now "certain" global warming would cause
temperatures to rise and it was "very likely" it would result in a drier
environment.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist or even a climate scientist to
figure out that those two things together would drive increased
likelihood of severe bushfires," he said.
Bushfires would also contribute, in a vicious cycle, to global warming
by burning trees and releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Prof Pitman said it was a "very open question" as to whether governments
understood the scale of the risk, and he was eagerly awaiting the
release of the Federal Government's carbon emission targets tonight.
Nature Conservation Council of NSW vice-chair Rob Pallin said people in
Australia's major cities, especially on the urban fringes, would be
affected by the increase in severe bushfires – not just rural dwellers.
Mr Pallin said by 2100 Sydney could face 30 to 60 days of extreme fire
danger every year, compared to the current five or six days of very high
fire danger.
"So the risk of someone dropping a match and starting a fire is much
higher, and therefore the risk to development on the fringes is much
higher," he said.