Australian Drought Turns To Flood As California Dries Out
Pastor Dale Morgan
Australian Drought Turns To Flood As California Dries Out*
Parched California has driest 'rainy season' on record
Los Angeles (AFP) Jul 02 - Los Angeles suffered through the driest rainy
season on record in 2007, marking the least amount of precipitation here
in the 130 years rainfall has been measured, weather officials said
Sunday. There were just 8.15 centimeters (3.2 inches) of rain in Los
Angeles between January 1 and June 30 -- barely a fifth of the annual
average rainfall of 38.3 centimeters (15 inches). "This was the driest
rain season ever in downtown Los Angeles and at many other locations in
southwestern California," the National Weather Service said in a
statement. Most California rains fall in the first half of the year,
particularly between January and March. The National Weather Service
began compiling precipitation statistics in 1877. Los Angeles residents
saw very heavy rains from late 2005 into early 2006, but officials
warned that water rationing is possible by next winter if drought
conditions persist.
by Neil Sands
Sydney (AFP) July 1, 2007
As severe water restrictions take effect in Australia's major
agricultural area, experts say there are signs the country's worst
drought in a century may finally be coming to an end. Torrential rain
last week flooded parts of Victoria state, just weeks after a deluge hit
New South Wales and left nine people dead.
The rains helped replenish dwindling dam levels in some of Australia's
major cities but they were not widespread enough to prevent the
government proceeding with a plan to cut water supplies to irrigators in
the Murray-Darling Basin.
The restrictions, which take effect on Sunday, are expected to have a
major impact on a region that grows 40 percent of Australia's
agricultural produce and is regarded as the country's food basket.
"We must recognise that there are still many parts of the country that
are still suffering from drought that haven't received enough rain yet,"
Deputy Prime Minister Mark Vaile said.
Vaile welcomed predictions from meteorologists that the "El Nino"
weather cycle blamed for the drought was coming to an end, saying he
hoped the recent rains were a harbinger of things to come.
"Now all we can do is hope and pray that that continues," he said.
"It's certainly a significant change from what we've had over the last
four or five years."
The official rural forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and
Resource Economics (ABARE), this month predicted the winter crop would
increase more than 130 percent after timely rains in agricultural areas.
"Widespread autumn rainfall across the majority of New South Wales,
Victoria and South Australia has provided an ideal start to the 2007-08
winter cropping season," it said.
However, ABARE has declined to say whether the drought was over after
declaring a premature end to the Big Dry in 2003 -- only for it to
continue for another four years.
A key rainfall indicator, the Southern Oscillation Index, hit a 13-month
high last week after the rains in the southeast of the country.
While it needs to stay high for at least another few months before the
drought can be declared over, forecasters said it was a promising sign.
A separate Bureau of Meteorology report also released last week said
that international models showed there was a good chance of that a
drought-breaking La Nina weather pattern could soon form.
"After stalling for around a month, there are renewed signs from the
Pacific Basin which are consistent with the early stages of a La Nina
event," the report said.
"Furthermore, computer models have been unwavering in their predictions
of a La Nina forming during winter."
The bureau said all major meteorological models was showing the same signs.
"The fact that all major international coupled models show further
cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean over the coming months suggests
there is a distinct likelihood of a La Nina event occurring in 2007."
El Nino is an occasional warming of the central and eastern Pacific
Ocean that typically happens every four to seven years and disrupts
weather patterns from the western seaboard of Latin America to East
Africa for 12-18 months.
It is often followed by a La Nina weather pattern, which occurs when the
Pacific cools, increasing rainfall.
earlier related report
*
Australian towns could be cut off for days by floods*
Sydney (AFP) July 1 - Flooding in southeastern Australia could leave
hundreds of people stranded inside their homes for the next three days
until the water recedes, officials said Sunday.
Victoria state's Gippsland region, which earlier this month was
suffering drought and the after-affects of fierce summer bushfires, has
been innundated by days of heavy rain.
Scores of Gippsland residents have so far evacuated and some 350 more
could be house-bound for three days until the flood waters recede, State
Emergency Service (SES) officials said.
SES state operations director Trevor White said while no major rain was
predicted for the next few days, the area was not yet in the clear.
"Unlike fires, the path of a flood can be very unpredictable," White said.
"Water levels will continue to rise and fall, so people need to stay on
their toes until the water drains out.
"If flood waters don't subside by lunchtime today then the people who
chose to remain behind may need to settle down for the next few days."
A combination of swollen rivers and a high tide caused by Saturday
night's full moon resulted in the water peaking, in one area at 1.33
metres (more than four feet) above normal levels. But the water was now
slowly receding, White added.
One Gippsland resident who has been stranded inside her house since
Friday with only her cat for company said she felt inconvenienced but
not threatened by her isolation.
Rhonda Curley, who lives on Burrabogie Island which is connected to the
mainland by a man-made canal, said her pier was under 60 centimetres
(two feet) of water.
"There's just water, lots of water," she told Australian Associated Press.
earlier related report
*
Australian grape glut dries up as drought bites*
by Madeleine Coorey
Orange Australia (AFP) June 29 - A year ago, Australia was awash in
wine. But thanks to the worst drought in a century, the 2007 vintage
will be one of the leanest in years and the grape glut is drying up
fast. For winemakers like Terry Dolle, who has a small vineyard near the
cool-climate town of Orange west of Sydney, the past year has been a
"series of disasters".
"We got a really big frost in November. Then it was so dry we couldn't
keep any moisture on the vines. Then, because there was not a blade of
grass anywhere, the kangaroos came. Then we couldn't keep the birds off
them.
"We are down 100 percent. We've got nothing," he told AFP.
Fellow vigneron Justin Jarrett has a similar story; in some parts of his
Orange property the ground is so dry it would be useless to plant vines
while in others the drought has left plants stunted and fruitless.
"If the drought just continues as is, we are going to see vines that are
struggling to produce fruit at all," he told AFP.
He too has been hit by capricious weather. "In February we had 80
millimetres (3.2 inches) of rain and we lost 100,000 dollars (84,000 US)
worth of crop because it came with a hail storm," he shrugs.
Orange, with an average annual rainfall of more than 800 millimetres, is
always one of the last places in Australia to be hit by drought and one
of the first to recover.
But the prolonged dry has slashed rainfall and wine production in the
pretty township this year will be down by about half. -- Vineyards in
drought's grip -- It is a story replicated in vineyards around the
country, most of which remain in the grip of the six-year drought.
In Australia's agricultural heartland further south, the Murray-Darling
River region which is home to about 65 percent of the country's
viticulture, grape growers labour under severe water restrictions.
"Even if we have got rain, production in the Murray Darling Basin is
going to be down," said Stephen Strachan, of the Winemakers' Federation
of Australia.
And while recent soaking rains have delighted wineries in the Hunter
Valley north of Sydney, most of the country's other vineyards are parched.
Strachan said 2007 has been a horror year for the country's 2,000 grape
growers who have had to discount heavily because of the estimated 500
million-litre (110 million-gallon) wine glut.
They are now faced with drastic cuts to production due to the drought
while a soaring Australian currency is hurting export earnings.
"They have had low prices and low yields -- it's plenty tough," said
Strachan, conceding conditions will force some wineries out of business.
Strachan said national production will be down about 25 percent to 1.42
million tonnes in 2007 due to drought and frost -- the lowest yielding
vintage for more than a decade.
The Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation has forecast the drought,
coupled with rising export demand, will bring the national wine supply
back into balance by 2008-2009, two years earlier than originally
expected. -- Cold climate some comfort -- While Strachan can content
himself with the knowledge that a reduction in the wine glut will raise
prices, the winemakers of Orange take comfort in thinking they may be
the future of an industry worth 4.8 billion dollars in annual sales.
Orange, near Mount Canobolas some 200 kilometres (124 miles) northwest
of Sydney, does not have the viticulture history of the Hunter Valley,
South Australia's Barossa Valley or the Margaret River in Western Australia.
But farmers here believe its reputation as a premium wine producing
region will build as grape growers take advantage of heavier rainfall
and cooler climate amid the threat of climate change.
Jarrett said there were many unknowns when it came to the impact of
global warming on the region which only began seriously producing wine
in the late 1980s.
"But what we do know is that by 2030-2050 we will be six degrees warmer
than it is. If we go up by six degrees, your vines are going to need
more water.
"What's going to happen in time is that vines are going to have to go
further up the hill."
Dolle believes Orange's cool climate, soil and altitude make it a good
place to produce wines, particularly whites.
"If there is a lack of water around Australia and an abundance of water
here from rainfall, then theoretically we should benefit from that," he
said.
Peter Robson, who runs Ross Hill, one of Orange's pioneering vineyards,
said rising global temperatures could hurt wine production in warmer
parts of the country.
"If these trends continue, the hot areas are not going to be able to
grow white grapes," he said. "They are going to be buttery rubbish. Some
of the reds are going to be iffy (questionable)."
But Strachan is circumspect, saying assessing the impact of climate
change is a major priority for the industry but one which will only be
done once a comprehensive research programme has been completed.
"Climate change is going to have a profound impact on our industry but
just because you're in a hot region doesn't mean you won't be able to
produce grapes."
Source: Agence France-Presse