Murky Raid Heats Up Syria-Israel Tension
Pastor Dale Morgan
Sep 13, 3:18 PM EDT
*Murky Raid Heats Up Syria-Israel Tension*
By SAM F. GHATTAS
Associated Press Writer
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) -- Syria and Israel last turned their guns on each
other in all-out war a quarter century ago, but tensions are sky high
after a mysterious Israeli airstrike deep into Syrian territory last week.
America says the target was Iranian missiles, while others have raised
questions of possible North Korean links. Israel, however, hasn't even
acknowledged anything happened, and Syria has said very little beyond
announcing the incursion and complaining to the United Nations.
Still, neither side appears eager for an escalation. Israel put its
troops on high alert along the Golan Heights frontier and Syria
discreetly called up some air defense reservists, but the crisis has
seemed more a war of nerves than preparation for hostilities.
"The picture is still foggy," said Christopher Pang, head of the Middle
East and North Africa program at the Royal United Services Institute in
London.
Most information has come from outside: A U.S. official confirmed this
week that Israeli warplanes had staged a strike. The official, who would
not speak publicly, said the target was Iranian-made weapons stored in
northeastern Syria and destined for Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
The Washington Post reported Thursday, however, that Israel had gathered
satellite imagery showing possible North Korean cooperation with Syria
on a nuclear facility. It cited an unidentified former Israeli official
as saying the airstrike was aimed at a site capable of making
unconventional weapons.
Syrian's U.N. envoy denied the country had weapons for Hezbollah. And
its information minister, Mohsen Bilal, told the Saudi newspaper Asharq
al-Awsat on Thursday that the accusations of North Korean nuclear help
were a "new American spin to cover up" for Israel.
Other theories abound.
One possibility is the Israeli planes simply made an
intelligence-gathering reconnaissance flight, said David Hartwell,
Middle East and North Africa editor for Jane's Country Risk.
Others speculate Israel's military was testing Syrian air defenses or
perhaps scouting an air corridor for a possible strike against Iran.
Either way, the incursion probably served at least one main purpose - as
a warning, experts said.
"In terms of deterrence, the effect was clear, by invading Syrian
airspace, by showing that Israel is not only able, but willing, to still
launch strikes against Syrian targets," Pang said.
North Korea piqued interest when it condemned the Israeli air incursion.
The communist state has a long alliance with Syria, and Israeli experts
say North Korea and Iran both have been major suppliers of missiles to
Syria. But many experts, including Hartwell, said they found the idea of
North Korean nuclear help to Syria unlikely, in part because Syria's
weak economy leaves it hard-pressed to afford nuclear technology.
Israel's silence has been among the most curious things about the incident.
In the past, Israel often was swift to announce such operations, while
Syria was slow to comment. This time, Israel has said nothing and Syria
was the one to announce that its air space had been entered and that
Israeli aircraft had "dropped munitions."
Despite that, Syria didn't ask the U.N. Security Council to meet over
the incident or to condemn the act. It merely asked for its complaint to
be circulated.
The location and timing of the strike also are puzzling.
Some experts think it unlikely that Syria would put sensitive projects
in its northeast near the border with Turkey, which is friendly with
Israel as well as with Syria. Syria's main strategic military
installations are believed to be in its central desert.
Others note Syria has long been thought to be a transit point for moving
weapons to Hezbollah, with which Israel fought an inclusive war last
year, and question why Israel would strike now.
"My assessment is that there is a very complex security picture that I
think is potentially driving these events," said Pang, but he added: "If
I had to pin down to the most likely ... to me the Hezbollah-Iranian
connection seems the most plausible."
Syria and Israel fought each other during both the 1967 and 1973 Mideast
wars. Their last military confrontation was in neighboring Lebanon in
1982, when Israel's air force shot down dozens of Syrian warplanes and
Israeli forces destroyed Syrian tanks.
That history of conflict keeps the region jittery about the possibility
of a new war, and Syria's deputy foreign minister, Faysal Mekdad, made
clear Thursday that the latest faceoff has the potential for a new blowup.
"Syria will respond to any Israeli acts, now and in the future," he said.