Revolution, flashmobs, and brain chips. A grim vision of the future
Pastor Dale Morgan
Revolution, flashmobs, and brain chips. A grim vision of the future*
Richard Norton-Taylor
Monday April 9, 2007
The Guardian
Information chips implanted in the brain. Electromagnetic pulse weapons.
The middle classes becoming revolutionary, taking on the role of Marx's
proletariat. The population of countries in the Middle East increasing
by 132%, while Europe's drops as fertility falls. "Flashmobs" - groups
rapidly mobilised by criminal gangs or terrorists groups.
This is the world in 30 years' time envisaged by a Ministry of Defence
team responsible for painting a picture of the "future strategic
context" likely to face Britain's armed forces. It includes an "analysis
of the key risks and shocks". Rear Admiral Chris Parry, head of the
MoD's Development, Concepts & Doctrine Centre which drew up the report,
describes the assessments as "probability-based, rather than predictive".
The 90-page report comments on widely discussed issues such as the
growing economic importance of India and China, the militarisation of
space, and even what it calls "declining news quality" with the rise of
"internet-enabled, citizen-journalists" and pressure to release stories
"at the expense of facts". It includes other, some frightening, some
reassuring, potential developments that are not so often discussed.
New weapons
An electromagnetic pulse will probably become operational by 2035 able
to destroy all communications systems in a selected area or be used
against a "world city" such as an international business service hub.
The development of neutron weapons which destroy living organs but not
buildings "might make a weapon of choice for extreme ethnic cleansing in
an increasingly populated world". The use of unmanned weapons platforms
would enable the "application of lethal force without human
intervention, raising consequential legal and ethical issues". The
"explicit use" of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear
weapons and devices delivered by unmanned vehicles or missiles.
Technology
By 2035, an implantable "information chip" could be wired directly to
the brain. A growing pervasiveness of information communications
technology will enable states, terrorists or criminals, to mobilise
"flashmobs", challenging security forces to match this potential agility
coupled with an ability to concentrate forces quickly in a small area.
Marxism
"The middle classes could become a revolutionary class, taking the role
envisaged for the proletariat by Marx," says the report. The thesis is
based on a growing gap between the middle classes and the super-rich on
one hand and an urban under-class threatening social order: "The world's
middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and
skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest".
Marxism could also be revived, it says, because of global inequality. An
increased trend towards moral relativism and pragmatic values will
encourage people to seek the "sanctuary provided by more rigid belief
systems, including religious orthodoxy and doctrinaire political
ideologies, such as popularism and Marxism".
Pressures leading to social unrest
By 2010 more than 50% of the world's population will be living in urban
rather than rural environments, leading to social deprivation and "new
instability risks", and the growth of shanty towns. By 2035, that figure
will rise to 60%. Migration will increase. Globalisation may lead to
levels of international integration that effectively bring inter-state
warfare to an end. But it may lead to "inter-communal conflict" -
communities with shared interests transcending national boundaries and
resorting to the use of violence.
Population and Resources
The global population is likely to grow to 8.5bn in 2035, with less
developed countries accounting for 98% of that. Some 87% of people under
the age of 25 live in the developing world. Demographic trends, which
will exacerbate economic and social tensions, have serious implications
for the environment - including the provision of clean water and other
resources - and for international relations. The population of
sub-Saharan Africa will increase over the period by 81%, and that of
Middle Eastern countries by 132%.
The Middle East
The massive population growth will mean the Middle East, and to a lesser
extent north Africa, will remain highly unstable, says the report. It
singles out Saudi Arabia, the most lucrative market for British arms,
with unemployment levels of 20% and a "youth bulge" in a state whose
population has risen from 7 million to 27 million since 1980. "The
expectations of growing numbers of young people [in the whole region]
many of whom will be confronted by the prospect of endemic unemployment
... are unlikely to be met," says the report.
Islamic militancy
Resentment among young people in the face of unrepresentative regimes
"will find outlets in political militancy, including radical political
Islam whose concept of Umma, the global Islamic community, and
resistance to capitalism may lie uneasily in an international system
based on nation-states and global market forces", the report warns. The
effects of such resentment will be expressed through the migration of
youth populations and global communications, encouraging contacts
between diaspora communities and their countries of origin.
Tension between the Islamic world and the west will remain, and may
increasingly be targeted at China "whose new-found materialism, economic
vibrancy, and institutionalised atheism, will be an anathema to orthodox
Islam".
Iran
Iran will steadily grow in economic and demographic strength and its
energy reserves and geographic location will give it substantial
strategic leverage. However, its government could be transformed. "From
the middle of the period," says the report, "the country, especially its
high proportion of younger people, will want to benefit from increased
access to globalisation and diversity, and it may be that Iran
progressively, but unevenly, transforms...into a vibrant democracy."
Terrorism
Casualties and the amount of damage inflicted by terrorism will stay low
compared to other forms of coercion and conflict. But acts of extreme
violence, supported by elements within Islamist states, with media
exploitation to maximise the impact of the "theatre of violence" will
persist. A "terrorist coalition", the report says, including a wide
range of reactionary and revolutionary rejectionists such as
ultra-nationalists, religious groupings and even extreme
environmentalists, might conduct a global campaign of greater intensity".
Climate change
There is "compelling evidence" to indicate that climate change is
occurring and that the atmosphere will continue to warm at an
unprecedented rate throughout the 21st century. It could lead to a
reduction in north Atlantic salinity by increasing the freshwater runoff
from the Arctic. This could affect the natural circulation of the north
Atlantic by diminishing the warming effect of ocean currents on western
Europe. "The drop in temperature might exceed that of the miniature ice
age of the 17th and 18th centuries."