Study questions bird-flu paranoia
Steve Dufour
http://www.washingtontimes.com
Study questions bird-flu paranoia
By Joyce Howard Price
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Published January 10, 2006
A study suggests that most people exposed to avian flu do not become
seriously ill and recover in a few days, even as a surge in suspected
human bird-flu cases is raising alarm in Turkey.
The Swedish study, published yesterday in Archives of Internal
Medicine, said a survey of Vietnamese showed that most people who
handled dead or sick poultry reported mild flulike symptoms but did not
have the severe reaction health officials said could sweep the globe.
Dr. Anna Thorson of the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm, who led
the study, said that although survey subjects were not tested for the
H5N1 avian-flu virus, researchers think the participants had it.
Researchers also said concern about a pandemic has been fueled by the
fact that only the worst human cases have been reported to health
officials since the 2003 outbreak in Asia.
"The verified human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in
Vietnam may represent only a selection of the most severely ill
patients," the study says.
But Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said yesterday that he has
reservations about the study. He said that without blood tests it is
impossible to know whether the people had influenza, much less avian
influenza.
"There isn't enough sufficient specific data to draw any
conclusions as to the prevalence of bird flu in that community," Dr.
Fauci said.
Dr. William Schaffner, chairman of the Department of Preventive
Medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, called the study
"terribly imprecise."
"There need to be more studies like this, but with laboratory
confirmation," the Nashville specialist said.
H5N1, which primarily affects birds, has epidemiologists concerned
because about 50 percent of humans who develop avian flu as a result
die, according to World Health Organization (WHO) data. By comparison,
about 0.5 percent of the U.S. population that gets flu dies in an
average season.
Specialists fear the H5N1 virus will mutate and become easily
contagious between humans.
If the Swedish findings prove to be correct, Dr. Schaffner said,
mortality from bird flu would be "more consistent" with that of other
infectious diseases. "But at this point, there is no way to tell," he
added.
The dispute over the study comes as the number of suspected and
confirmed bird-flu cases in Turkey continues to grow. Wire reports
yesterday indicated five new cases of positive tests for H5N1, bringing
the number of suspected human cases in that country to 14.
But WHO said it knows of only four laboratory-confirmed cases. Two
Turkish siblings have died, the organization said, and the possibility
of a third sibling death from H5N1 in the family is being investigated.
Yesterday, a crowd mobbed a health minister in the remote town of
Dogubeyazit in rural eastern Turkey, where the first bird-flu deaths
outside East Asia occurred last week.
The reported new cases involve youths in four provinces, raising
concerns that bird flu is spreading westward across Turkey toward
Europe. Dr. Guenael Rodier, a senior WHO official for communicable
diseases, said the human infections seem to have resulted from direct
contact with infected domestic birds.
Because all but one of the 14 suspected bird-flu cases in Turkey
involved children or youth, Turkish authorities warned parents
yesterday against letting their children handle body parts of dead
poultry.
The Swedish researchers studied a population in a rural province of
Vietnam, the Asian country with the largest number of confirmed human
cases (93) and deaths (42) from avian flu. Vietnam also is one of 16
nations in which the H5N1 strain has ravaged poultry flocks.
Out of a random sample of nearly 45,500 residents in Ha Tay
province near Hanoi, the researchers found 8,149 persons who reported
flulike symptoms. Most described the symptoms as mild.
Dr. Gregory Poland, a flu specialist at the Mayo Clinic, told
Associated Press that the Swedish report could demonstrate the true
incidence and effect of bird flu in humans.