Tuesday AfricaDigest (12/07): Ivory Coast update and background info
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Ivory Coast deadlock: Food shortages and price rises
There are shortages of basic goods in Ivory Coast, while the price of
others - including cocoa - has risen, as the election deadlock
continues.
Meat, fish, petrol and cooking gas are running short, with many
warehouses closed due to security fears.
Ivory Coast is the world's largest cocoa producer and prices have
reportedly hit a four-month high.
West Africa's regional bloc Ecowas is to hold crisis talks, as world
leaders urge Laurent Gbagbo to cede power.
They say opposition leader Alassane Ouattara won the 28 November poll.
As tensions mount, the UN is moving non-essential staff out of the
country.
On Monday the African Union mediator, former South African President
Thabo Mbeki, left Ivory Coast after two days of talks with the rival
sides failed to end the deadlock.
Both Mr Gbagbo and Mr Ouattara have been sworn in as president and
have each named cabinets.
The leader of the New Forces rebels is Mr Ouattara's prime minister
but the government security forces are loyal to Mr Gbagbo, raising
fears of renewed conflict.
Ivory Coast has been divided since a 2002 civil war. It used to be
seen as a haven of peace and prosperity in West Africa.
The BBC's John James in the main city Abidjan says the election that
was supposed to lead to an Ivorian renaissance is starting to look
like a simple extension of the last 10-plus years of political
instability.
Cocoa staff leave
A survey by the Ivorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry found
shortages of meat and fish, while our reporter says it is hard to find
bottles of cooking gas.
The price of sugar has apparently tripled in price in some areas,
while our reporter says beef and potatoes have risen by 25% and 60%
respectively in local markets.
Reuters news agency reports that cocoa prices hit a four-month high on
Monday.
The World Bank and African Development Bank have said Ivory Coast had
to resolve its political crisis or face having its aid frozen.
Overseas companies like French Telecom and many of the cocoa exporters
have also pulled out non-essential staff.
Some of Mr Ouattara's supporters have staged protests in Abidjan,
burning tyres in the streets, while Mr Gbagbo has extended a curfew
until 13 December.
'Real tragedy'
As he left, Mr Mbeki said he would report to the African Union.
"Cote d'Ivoire [Ivory Coast] needs peace and needs democracy... We
indeed hope that the leadership of this country will do all that it
can to ensure peace is maintained," he said.
Neither Mr Gbagbo nor Mr Ouattara have been invited to Tuesday's
emergency Ecowas meeting in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, to discuss
the crisis.
Ecowas, the US and former colonial power France have all said Mr
Ouattara won the election.
Initial results issued by the electoral commission gave him a clear
victory over Mr Gbagbo.
But the results were later overturned by the country's Constitutional
Council, which awarded the victory to the incumbent, annulling a large
number of votes from the rebel-held north, where Mr Ouattara is
popular.
Earlier, Botswana's President Khama Ian Khama urged African heads of
state to strongly condemn what was happening.
He also told the BBC that Mr Gbagbo should step down, saying it was
clear a majority of people had voted for Mr Ouattara.
Mr Khama described the situation as a "real tragedy" and urged all
African leaders to condemn what is happening.
He also urged the international community not to broker a power-
sharing agreement, as it did in Kenya and Zimbabwe.
"Elections there were hijacked by the ruling party and if that's going
to happen every time someone wants to dispute an election result and
then may stay in power by default through a mechanism of power sharing
- it's wrong!" he told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme.
The UN continues to have around 10,000 peacekeepers, some of whom are
protecting Mr Ouattara and his self-declared government, which is
holed up in an Abidjan hotel.
Several Western countries have also advised their citizens not to
travel to the country, while Belgium has said it has deployed special
forces personnel to protect its embassy.
Ivory Coast was split in two during a civil war in 2002.
This year's presidential election was the culmination of years of
peace talks between the government and the rebel movement which
largely controlled the north of the country.
Mr Gbagbo is a southerner and is popular in Abidjan; Mr Ouattara draws
most of his support from the north.
----------------
Q&A: Ivory Coast election crisis
There is chaos and confusion in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa
producer, after a disputed election resulted in both of the main
candidates - Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara - being sworn in as
president.
What is the background to all this?
A decade ago, Ivory Coast was seen as a haven of peace and prosperity
in West Africa.
But under the surface, the country has long been deeply divided along
ethnic, religious and economic lines.
Its thriving cocoa industry meant living standards in Ivory Coast were
far higher than its neighbours, so people from some of the world's
poorest countries, such as Mali and Burkina Faso, moved there to earn
their living.
Some of these people shared ethnic ties to those living in northern
Ivory Coast and like them were mostly Muslim.
Some southerners, egged on by populist politicians, started to resent
the influx and demanded action to protect the country's "Ivoirite
(Ivoirie-ness)".
So why is the country divided in two?
The northerners then started to complain that they were being
discriminated against and were told they were not true Ivorians.
For example, Mr Ouattara, a Muslim, was banned from standing for
president in previous elections because it was said his parents came
from Burkina Faso. He had already served as the country's prime
minister.
Similarly, many northerners said they were being refused national
identity cards and the right to vote.
In 2002, some northern soldiers mutinied and marched on Abidjan. They
were on the verge of seizing the whole country when they were stopped
by French troops. The country has been divided into north and south
ever since.
So was the vote in the north free and fair?
That is the key question.
Under a peace deal which led to this election, a new voters' roll was
drawn up and many northerners registered. They largely voted for Mr
Ouattara.
But Mr Gbagbo's supporters say the New Forces rebels helped rig the
vote in favour of Mr Ouattara in the areas they still control.
The Constitutional Council, headed by a Gbagbo ally, agreed and
annulled the votes from the north, leaving Mr Gbagbo with a slender
overall majority.
The UN observer mission says that there was violence in parts of the
north, as well as in Mr Gbagbo's home region in the west, but that
overall, the vote was democratic and peaceful.
So what happens next?
The international community will be doing all it can to prevent a
return to civil war.
There are about 8,000 UN peacekeepers in the country, while former
colonial power France still has a military base there. It has already
said it might intervene to protect its considerable economic interests
there, along with the sizeable French community.
In previous bouts of unrest, they have been targeted by Mr Gbagbo's
supporters, who accused France of favouring the rebels.
Is violence inevitable?
Not necessarily. Even during the civil war, there were never large-
scale hostilities, rather the odd skirmish and riots in cities such as
Abidjan, the commercial capital and a stronghold of Mr Gbagbo, which
saw attacks on foreigners, Muslims and northerners.
Some sort of power-sharing deal may be arranged, as has happened in
several Africa countries after election disputes.
In fact, the outgoing government was a coalition of Mr Gbagbo's
supporters and the former rebels, which was brokered by Burkina Faso
President Blaise Compaore.
This time former South African President Thabo Mbeki has been drafted
in to negotiate a deal.
But maybe the division of the country into separate areas - north and
south - may last a while longer until a long-term solution can be
found.
Of course, it has the potential to turn into a horrific conflict, with
the New Forces taking up their arms once more and battling the pro-
Gbagbo security forces.
We could once more see ethnic riots in cities such as Abidjan, leading
huge numbers of people to flee the country - and the cocoa industry
taking yet another big hit.
---------------
Cocoa farmers: A mirror to Ivory Coast's divisions
By John James
BBC News, Gagnoa
Ivory Coast's cocoa farmers hold the country's future in their hands
in Sunday's presidential run-off.
The preferred candidate of the central Baoule ethnic group was
eliminated in the first round of voting, leaving the farmers playing
the role of king makers.
Tension is high in the centre-west region where many of the Baoule
farmers live as migrant workers, currently harvesting cocoa for
chocolate.
Meanwhile leaflets calling for migrants to be driven off the land have
been widely circulated - inflaming tensions after the first round of
voting on 31 October.
"To vote, it's not easy at all," said Ahoutro Kouassi, a Baoule tribal
chief in the town of Gagnoa, the home town of President Laurent
Gbagbo.
"If you haven't accepted to vote how they say, they beat you up around
the corner."
Rural rivalry
Sunday's vote sees Mr Gbagbo take on former IMF economist Alassane
Ouattara, in a run-off intended to reunite the country eight years
after a civil war.
The stakes are high and the contest is getting personal with each side
accusing the other of being responsible for the coups and conflicts of
the past 11 years, which left the New Forces rebel group in control of
the north.
Sunday's battle between Mr Ouattara and Mr Gbagbo has strong fault
lines; respectively, north v south, Muslim v Christian, economist v
historian, liberal v socialist and technocrat v populist.
Disputed elections could see the emergence of the violent street
protests seen at the height of the civil war.
But a peaceful outcome would pave the way for resurgence in economic
growth, in a country that was once known as the economic miracle of
West Africa.
The central Baoule farmers - from the country's largest ethnic group -
voted massively for one of their own in the first round - former
President Henri Konan Bedie.
But he came in third with 25% of the vote and is now calling on his
supporters to vote for Mr Ouattara.
In the centre-west, Baoule cocoa farmers work alongside northerners
and foreigners, who have all migrated to the area to farm land
traditionally owned by the original inhabitants of the area, Mr
Gbagbo's Bete ethnic group.
This creates tensions as migrant communities are likely to support Mr
Ouattara, who hails from the north, and the original inhabitants of
the area who generally vote for President Gbagbo.
There is little protection in the rural villages far from the eyes of
the Ivorian police and the 8,000-plus UN peacekeepers in the country.
Footballers urge peace
"We need to ask people to be calm and not to make any threats so that
things can be more peaceful," said Emile Kambou, who works for Ivorian
Human Rights Movement (MIDH) in Gagnoa.
They are calling on the authorities to beef up security in the cocoa
belt for this weekend's election.
For now, intimidation has mainly been verbal, but MIDH confirm two
Baoule farmers were beaten up and needed to be hospitalised. The
farmers have since fled to their home region.
"I hope that both presidential candidates will encourage their
supporters to respect the right of all Ivorians to choose their leader
without fear of intimidation or reprisal," said former Ghanaian
President John Kufuor, who heads an election mission from the Carter
Center.
Ivory Coast's football stars have also got involved, with Didier
Drogba, Yaya and Kolo Toure and Gervinho calling for peaceful
elections.
The Baoule make up around 23% of the population and their traditional
region lies in the centre of the country, particularly around the
Ivorian capital Yamoussoukro.
Ivory Coast's first President Felix Houphouet-Boigny was a cocoa-
farming Baoule chief who made Yamoussoukro, his home town, the capital
in 1983.
After Houphouet-Boigny's death in 1993, Mr Bedie, also a Baoule,
became president until he was overthrown in a coup in 1999.
Mr Ouattara promises that if he is elected president on Sunday, Mr
Bedie, 76, would be his "boss" and that he would immediately start
governing from Yamoussoukro, until now a capital in name only.
Both candidates are fighting hard to secure the Baoule vote.
In the last couple of weeks, Mr Ouattara held a political rally in the
capital with about 2,000 Baoule chiefs and paid his respects at the
tomb of Houphouet-Boigny.
Mr Gbagbo followed with a political rally in Sakassou, home to the
Baoule's traditional queen mother, along with 2,500 tribal chiefs from
the Akan people, a larger ethnic grouping that encompasses the Baoule.
"Each side is trying to gain the Baoule camp for their own," said
George Kouame, a Baoule man shopping at one of the main markets in
Yamoussoukro.
"We don't have a problem with Bedie calling on us to vote Ouattara,
but this a democracy and everyone will chose for themselves," he said.
-------------
Country profile: Ivory Coast
Once hailed as a model of stability, Ivory Coast has slipped into the
kind of internal strife that has plagued many African countries.
An armed rebellion in 2002 split the nation in two. Since then, peace
deals have alternated with renewed violence as the country has slowly
edged its way towards a political resolution of the conflict.
For more than three decades after independence under the leadership of
its first president, Felix Houphouet-Boigny, Ivory Coast was
conspicuous for its religious and ethnic harmony and its well-
developed economy.
All this ended when the late Robert Guei led a coup which toppled
Felix Houphouet-Boigny's successor, Henri Bedie, in 1999.
Mr Bedie fled, but not before planting the seeds of ethnic discord by
trying to stir up xenophobia against Muslim northerners, including his
main rival, Alassane Ouattara.
AT-A-GLANCE
Politics: Civil war in 2002 split country between rebel-held north and
government-controlled south; under terms of 2007 power-sharing deal,
rebel leader became prime minister
Economy: Ivory Coast is world's leading cocoa producer; UN sanctions
imposed in 2004 include an arms embargo and a ban on diamond exports
This theme was also adopted by Mr Guei, who had Alassane Ouattara
banned from the presidential election in 2000 because of his foreign
parentage, and by the only serious contender allowed to run against Mr
Guei, Laurent Gbagbo.
When Mr Gbagbo replaced Robert Guei after he was deposed in a popular
uprising in 2000, violence replaced xenophobia. Scores of Mr
Ouattara's supporters were killed after their leader called for new
elections.
In September 2002 a troop mutiny escalated into a full-scale
rebellion, voicing the ongoing discontent of northern Muslims who felt
they were being discriminated against in Ivorian politics. Thousands
were killed in the conflict.
Although the fighting has stopped, Ivory Coast is tense and divided.
French and UN peacekeepers patrolled the buffer zone which separated
the north, held by rebels known as the New Forces, and the government-
controlled south.
Full name: The Republic of Ivory Coast
Population: 21.6 million (UN, 2010)
Capital: Yamoussoukro
Largest city: Abidjan
Area: 322,462 sq km (124,503 sq miles)
Major languages: French, indigenous languages
Major religions: Islam, Christianity, indigenous beliefs
Life expectancy: 58 years (men), 61 years (women) (UN)
Monetary unit: 1 CFA (Communaute Financiere Africaine) franc = 100
centimes
Main exports: Cocoa, coffee, tropical woods, petroleum, cotton,
bananas, pineapples, palm oil, fish
GNI per capita: US $1,060 (World Bank, 2009)
Internet domain: .ci
International dialling code: +225
President: Laurent Gbagbo
Veteran politician Laurent Gbagbo, who was elected president in 2000
for a five-year mandate, was given a seventh successive year in power
in November 2006 under a UN plan to find lasting peace.
The opposition and New Forces rebels said they did not want him back
in office but a UN Security Council resolution, proposed by the
African Union, allowed him to keep his job for a final year.
Mr Gbagbo then adopted a variety of ruses in order to postpone
elections repeatedly, and managed to put off facing the electorate
until late 2010.
When the presidential election finally took place on 31 October 2010,
it failed to produce an outright winner, and a run-off was held on 28
November.
Tension mounted as the Constitutional Council, the country's highest
court run by the president's allies, declared Gbagbo the winner, while
his rival, Alassane Ouattara, also claimed victory.
A historian by profession, Laurent Gbagbo is a former trade union
activist who, since the 1980s, has taken a strongly nationalist
stance, espousing the concept of pure Ivorian parentage. His party
took steps to exclude Ivorians of foreign descent from the electoral
roll.
He spent two years in prison in the early 1970s for "subversive"
teaching and eight years in exile in France in the 1980s, before
returning in 1988 to campaign for multi-party democracy.
Amid an uprising against his predecessor, he proclaimed himself
president in October 2000, at the age of 55.
He derives much of his support from the mostly Christian south and
west.
Prime minister: Guillaume Soro
The president appointed rebel leader Guillaume Soro prime minister in
March 2007 weeks after the former arch rivals signed a power-sharing
peace deal that guaranteed Mr Soro's New Forces a role in a
transitional government.
The deal envisaged that elections would be held within 10 months.
However, after lengthy delays they were held in October and November
2010.
The transitional unity government formed by Mr Soro in 2007 was
dissolved by President Gbagbo in February 2010 after violent protests
at the government's handling of the process of voter registration.
Several weeks later, Mr Soro announced a new transitional unity
government including both main opposition parties. However, 11 of the
27 ministerial posts remained vacant after President Gbagbo rejected
the names proposed by several opposition parties.
Mr Soro, a former student leader, came to the fore during the 2002
rebellion that led to the country's division. He served in the
reconciliation government of his predecessor, Charles Konan Banny.
Radio is Ivory Coast's most popular medium. There is a tier of low-
power, non-commercial community radio stations, including some run by
the Catholic Church.
There are no private terrestrial TV stations, although pay-TV services
are provided by Canal Satellite Horizons.
Rebels in the centre of the country use state radio and TV facilities
in Bouake for their own broadcasts.
The Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders says Ivory
Coast is "one of Africa's most dangerous countries for both local and
foreign media".
In 2004, amid attacks on rebels in the north, the government used the
media under its control, particularly state broadcaster Radiodiffusion
Television Ivoirienne (RTI), as a powerful tool in the crisis. In 2006
members of the Young Patriots militia - loyal to President Gbagbo -
invaded RTI headquarters.
In 2007 UN peacekeepers decried "the growing number of inflammatory
articles in the press" as well as an increasing number of violent
attacks against publications.
The peacekeepers launched their own radio station, Onuci FM, in 2005.
Initially available in Abidjan, the station extended its reach to
cover rebel-held towns in the north.
BBC World Service broadcasts on FM in Abidjan (94.3), Yamoussoukro
(97.7) and Bouake (93.9).
The press
Fraternité Matin - state-owned daily
Notre Voie - daily, owned by ruling party
Le Patriote - opposition daily
Soir Info - private daily
Le Nouveau Reveil - private daily
Le Jour - private daily
24 Heures - private daily
Le Front - private daily
L'Inter - private daily
Television
Radiodiffusion Television Ivoirienne (RTI) - state-run, operates La
Premiere and TV2
Radio
Radiodiffusion Television Ivoirienne (RTI) - state-run, operates La
Chaine Nationale and Frequence 2
Nostalgie - private, Abidjan FM station
Africa No1 - relay of Gabon-based pan-African station, with some local
programming
Radio Espoir - Abidjan Catholic station
Radio Paix Sanwi - Aboisso Catholic station
Onuci FM - run by UN peacekeepers
News agency
Agence Ivoirienne de Presse (AIP) - state-owned
-----------------
It is easy in the world to live after the world's opinion, it is easy
in solitude to live after your own; but the great man is he who, in
the midst of the world, keeps with perfect sweetness the independence
of solitude. -Ralph Waldo Emerson, writer and philosopher (1803-1882)
-----------------
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There are shortages of basic goods in Ivory Coast, while the price of
others - including cocoa - has risen, as the election deadlock
continues.
Meat, fish, petrol and cooking gas are running short, with many
warehouses closed due to security fears.
Ivory Coast is the world's largest cocoa producer and prices have
reportedly hit a four-month high.
West Africa's regional bloc Ecowas is to hold crisis talks, as world
leaders urge Laurent Gbagbo to cede power.
They say opposition leader Alassane Ouattara won the 28 November poll.
As tensions mount, the UN is moving non-essential staff out of the
country.
On Monday the African Union mediator, former South African President
Thabo Mbeki, left Ivory Coast after two days of talks with the rival
sides failed to end the deadlock.
Both Mr Gbagbo and Mr Ouattara have been sworn in as president and
have each named cabinets.
The leader of the New Forces rebels is Mr Ouattara's prime minister
but the government security forces are loyal to Mr Gbagbo, raising
fears of renewed conflict.
Ivory Coast has been divided since a 2002 civil war. It used to be
seen as a haven of peace and prosperity in West Africa.
The BBC's John James in the main city Abidjan says the election that
was supposed to lead to an Ivorian renaissance is starting to look
like a simple extension of the last 10-plus years of political
instability.
Cocoa staff leave
A survey by the Ivorian Chamber of Commerce and Industry found
shortages of meat and fish, while our reporter says it is hard to find
bottles of cooking gas.
The price of sugar has apparently tripled in price in some areas,
while our reporter says beef and potatoes have risen by 25% and 60%
respectively in local markets.
Reuters news agency reports that cocoa prices hit a four-month high on
Monday.
The World Bank and African Development Bank have said Ivory Coast had
to resolve its political crisis or face having its aid frozen.
Overseas companies like French Telecom and many of the cocoa exporters
have also pulled out non-essential staff.
Some of Mr Ouattara's supporters have staged protests in Abidjan,
burning tyres in the streets, while Mr Gbagbo has extended a curfew
until 13 December.
'Real tragedy'
As he left, Mr Mbeki said he would report to the African Union.
"Cote d'Ivoire [Ivory Coast] needs peace and needs democracy... We
indeed hope that the leadership of this country will do all that it
can to ensure peace is maintained," he said.
Neither Mr Gbagbo nor Mr Ouattara have been invited to Tuesday's
emergency Ecowas meeting in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, to discuss
the crisis.
Ecowas, the US and former colonial power France have all said Mr
Ouattara won the election.
Initial results issued by the electoral commission gave him a clear
victory over Mr Gbagbo.
But the results were later overturned by the country's Constitutional
Council, which awarded the victory to the incumbent, annulling a large
number of votes from the rebel-held north, where Mr Ouattara is
popular.
Earlier, Botswana's President Khama Ian Khama urged African heads of
state to strongly condemn what was happening.
He also told the BBC that Mr Gbagbo should step down, saying it was
clear a majority of people had voted for Mr Ouattara.
Mr Khama described the situation as a "real tragedy" and urged all
African leaders to condemn what is happening.
He also urged the international community not to broker a power-
sharing agreement, as it did in Kenya and Zimbabwe.
"Elections there were hijacked by the ruling party and if that's going
to happen every time someone wants to dispute an election result and
then may stay in power by default through a mechanism of power sharing
- it's wrong!" he told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme.
The UN continues to have around 10,000 peacekeepers, some of whom are
protecting Mr Ouattara and his self-declared government, which is
holed up in an Abidjan hotel.
Several Western countries have also advised their citizens not to
travel to the country, while Belgium has said it has deployed special
forces personnel to protect its embassy.
Ivory Coast was split in two during a civil war in 2002.
This year's presidential election was the culmination of years of
peace talks between the government and the rebel movement which
largely controlled the north of the country.
Mr Gbagbo is a southerner and is popular in Abidjan; Mr Ouattara draws
most of his support from the north.
----------------
Q&A: Ivory Coast election crisis
There is chaos and confusion in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa
producer, after a disputed election resulted in both of the main
candidates - Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara - being sworn in as
president.
What is the background to all this?
A decade ago, Ivory Coast was seen as a haven of peace and prosperity
in West Africa.
But under the surface, the country has long been deeply divided along
ethnic, religious and economic lines.
Its thriving cocoa industry meant living standards in Ivory Coast were
far higher than its neighbours, so people from some of the world's
poorest countries, such as Mali and Burkina Faso, moved there to earn
their living.
Some of these people shared ethnic ties to those living in northern
Ivory Coast and like them were mostly Muslim.
Some southerners, egged on by populist politicians, started to resent
the influx and demanded action to protect the country's "Ivoirite
(Ivoirie-ness)".
So why is the country divided in two?
The northerners then started to complain that they were being
discriminated against and were told they were not true Ivorians.
For example, Mr Ouattara, a Muslim, was banned from standing for
president in previous elections because it was said his parents came
from Burkina Faso. He had already served as the country's prime
minister.
Similarly, many northerners said they were being refused national
identity cards and the right to vote.
In 2002, some northern soldiers mutinied and marched on Abidjan. They
were on the verge of seizing the whole country when they were stopped
by French troops. The country has been divided into north and south
ever since.
So was the vote in the north free and fair?
That is the key question.
Under a peace deal which led to this election, a new voters' roll was
drawn up and many northerners registered. They largely voted for Mr
Ouattara.
But Mr Gbagbo's supporters say the New Forces rebels helped rig the
vote in favour of Mr Ouattara in the areas they still control.
The Constitutional Council, headed by a Gbagbo ally, agreed and
annulled the votes from the north, leaving Mr Gbagbo with a slender
overall majority.
The UN observer mission says that there was violence in parts of the
north, as well as in Mr Gbagbo's home region in the west, but that
overall, the vote was democratic and peaceful.
So what happens next?
The international community will be doing all it can to prevent a
return to civil war.
There are about 8,000 UN peacekeepers in the country, while former
colonial power France still has a military base there. It has already
said it might intervene to protect its considerable economic interests
there, along with the sizeable French community.
In previous bouts of unrest, they have been targeted by Mr Gbagbo's
supporters, who accused France of favouring the rebels.
Is violence inevitable?
Not necessarily. Even during the civil war, there were never large-
scale hostilities, rather the odd skirmish and riots in cities such as
Abidjan, the commercial capital and a stronghold of Mr Gbagbo, which
saw attacks on foreigners, Muslims and northerners.
Some sort of power-sharing deal may be arranged, as has happened in
several Africa countries after election disputes.
In fact, the outgoing government was a coalition of Mr Gbagbo's
supporters and the former rebels, which was brokered by Burkina Faso
President Blaise Compaore.
This time former South African President Thabo Mbeki has been drafted
in to negotiate a deal.
But maybe the division of the country into separate areas - north and
south - may last a while longer until a long-term solution can be
found.
Of course, it has the potential to turn into a horrific conflict, with
the New Forces taking up their arms once more and battling the pro-
Gbagbo security forces.
We could once more see ethnic riots in cities such as Abidjan, leading
huge numbers of people to flee the country - and the cocoa industry
taking yet another big hit.
---------------
Cocoa farmers: A mirror to Ivory Coast's divisions
By John James
BBC News, Gagnoa
Ivory Coast's cocoa farmers hold the country's future in their hands
in Sunday's presidential run-off.
The preferred candidate of the central Baoule ethnic group was
eliminated in the first round of voting, leaving the farmers playing
the role of king makers.
Tension is high in the centre-west region where many of the Baoule
farmers live as migrant workers, currently harvesting cocoa for
chocolate.
Meanwhile leaflets calling for migrants to be driven off the land have
been widely circulated - inflaming tensions after the first round of
voting on 31 October.
"To vote, it's not easy at all," said Ahoutro Kouassi, a Baoule tribal
chief in the town of Gagnoa, the home town of President Laurent
Gbagbo.
"If you haven't accepted to vote how they say, they beat you up around
the corner."
Rural rivalry
Sunday's vote sees Mr Gbagbo take on former IMF economist Alassane
Ouattara, in a run-off intended to reunite the country eight years
after a civil war.
The stakes are high and the contest is getting personal with each side
accusing the other of being responsible for the coups and conflicts of
the past 11 years, which left the New Forces rebel group in control of
the north.
Sunday's battle between Mr Ouattara and Mr Gbagbo has strong fault
lines; respectively, north v south, Muslim v Christian, economist v
historian, liberal v socialist and technocrat v populist.
Disputed elections could see the emergence of the violent street
protests seen at the height of the civil war.
But a peaceful outcome would pave the way for resurgence in economic
growth, in a country that was once known as the economic miracle of
West Africa.
The central Baoule farmers - from the country's largest ethnic group -
voted massively for one of their own in the first round - former
President Henri Konan Bedie.
But he came in third with 25% of the vote and is now calling on his
supporters to vote for Mr Ouattara.
In the centre-west, Baoule cocoa farmers work alongside northerners
and foreigners, who have all migrated to the area to farm land
traditionally owned by the original inhabitants of the area, Mr
Gbagbo's Bete ethnic group.
This creates tensions as migrant communities are likely to support Mr
Ouattara, who hails from the north, and the original inhabitants of
the area who generally vote for President Gbagbo.
There is little protection in the rural villages far from the eyes of
the Ivorian police and the 8,000-plus UN peacekeepers in the country.
Footballers urge peace
"We need to ask people to be calm and not to make any threats so that
things can be more peaceful," said Emile Kambou, who works for Ivorian
Human Rights Movement (MIDH) in Gagnoa.
They are calling on the authorities to beef up security in the cocoa
belt for this weekend's election.
For now, intimidation has mainly been verbal, but MIDH confirm two
Baoule farmers were beaten up and needed to be hospitalised. The
farmers have since fled to their home region.
"I hope that both presidential candidates will encourage their
supporters to respect the right of all Ivorians to choose their leader
without fear of intimidation or reprisal," said former Ghanaian
President John Kufuor, who heads an election mission from the Carter
Center.
Ivory Coast's football stars have also got involved, with Didier
Drogba, Yaya and Kolo Toure and Gervinho calling for peaceful
elections.
The Baoule make up around 23% of the population and their traditional
region lies in the centre of the country, particularly around the
Ivorian capital Yamoussoukro.
Ivory Coast's first President Felix Houphouet-Boigny was a cocoa-
farming Baoule chief who made Yamoussoukro, his home town, the capital
in 1983.
After Houphouet-Boigny's death in 1993, Mr Bedie, also a Baoule,
became president until he was overthrown in a coup in 1999.
Mr Ouattara promises that if he is elected president on Sunday, Mr
Bedie, 76, would be his "boss" and that he would immediately start
governing from Yamoussoukro, until now a capital in name only.
Both candidates are fighting hard to secure the Baoule vote.
In the last couple of weeks, Mr Ouattara held a political rally in the
capital with about 2,000 Baoule chiefs and paid his respects at the
tomb of Houphouet-Boigny.
Mr Gbagbo followed with a political rally in Sakassou, home to the
Baoule's traditional queen mother, along with 2,500 tribal chiefs from
the Akan people, a larger ethnic grouping that encompasses the Baoule.
"Each side is trying to gain the Baoule camp for their own," said
George Kouame, a Baoule man shopping at one of the main markets in
Yamoussoukro.
"We don't have a problem with Bedie calling on us to vote Ouattara,
but this a democracy and everyone will chose for themselves," he said.
-------------
Country profile: Ivory Coast
Once hailed as a model of stability, Ivory Coast has slipped into the
kind of internal strife that has plagued many African countries.
An armed rebellion in 2002 split the nation in two. Since then, peace
deals have alternated with renewed violence as the country has slowly
edged its way towards a political resolution of the conflict.
For more than three decades after independence under the leadership of
its first president, Felix Houphouet-Boigny, Ivory Coast was
conspicuous for its religious and ethnic harmony and its well-
developed economy.
All this ended when the late Robert Guei led a coup which toppled
Felix Houphouet-Boigny's successor, Henri Bedie, in 1999.
Mr Bedie fled, but not before planting the seeds of ethnic discord by
trying to stir up xenophobia against Muslim northerners, including his
main rival, Alassane Ouattara.
AT-A-GLANCE
Politics: Civil war in 2002 split country between rebel-held north and
government-controlled south; under terms of 2007 power-sharing deal,
rebel leader became prime minister
Economy: Ivory Coast is world's leading cocoa producer; UN sanctions
imposed in 2004 include an arms embargo and a ban on diamond exports
This theme was also adopted by Mr Guei, who had Alassane Ouattara
banned from the presidential election in 2000 because of his foreign
parentage, and by the only serious contender allowed to run against Mr
Guei, Laurent Gbagbo.
When Mr Gbagbo replaced Robert Guei after he was deposed in a popular
uprising in 2000, violence replaced xenophobia. Scores of Mr
Ouattara's supporters were killed after their leader called for new
elections.
In September 2002 a troop mutiny escalated into a full-scale
rebellion, voicing the ongoing discontent of northern Muslims who felt
they were being discriminated against in Ivorian politics. Thousands
were killed in the conflict.
Although the fighting has stopped, Ivory Coast is tense and divided.
French and UN peacekeepers patrolled the buffer zone which separated
the north, held by rebels known as the New Forces, and the government-
controlled south.
Full name: The Republic of Ivory Coast
Population: 21.6 million (UN, 2010)
Capital: Yamoussoukro
Largest city: Abidjan
Area: 322,462 sq km (124,503 sq miles)
Major languages: French, indigenous languages
Major religions: Islam, Christianity, indigenous beliefs
Life expectancy: 58 years (men), 61 years (women) (UN)
Monetary unit: 1 CFA (Communaute Financiere Africaine) franc = 100
centimes
Main exports: Cocoa, coffee, tropical woods, petroleum, cotton,
bananas, pineapples, palm oil, fish
GNI per capita: US $1,060 (World Bank, 2009)
Internet domain: .ci
International dialling code: +225
President: Laurent Gbagbo
Veteran politician Laurent Gbagbo, who was elected president in 2000
for a five-year mandate, was given a seventh successive year in power
in November 2006 under a UN plan to find lasting peace.
The opposition and New Forces rebels said they did not want him back
in office but a UN Security Council resolution, proposed by the
African Union, allowed him to keep his job for a final year.
Mr Gbagbo then adopted a variety of ruses in order to postpone
elections repeatedly, and managed to put off facing the electorate
until late 2010.
When the presidential election finally took place on 31 October 2010,
it failed to produce an outright winner, and a run-off was held on 28
November.
Tension mounted as the Constitutional Council, the country's highest
court run by the president's allies, declared Gbagbo the winner, while
his rival, Alassane Ouattara, also claimed victory.
A historian by profession, Laurent Gbagbo is a former trade union
activist who, since the 1980s, has taken a strongly nationalist
stance, espousing the concept of pure Ivorian parentage. His party
took steps to exclude Ivorians of foreign descent from the electoral
roll.
He spent two years in prison in the early 1970s for "subversive"
teaching and eight years in exile in France in the 1980s, before
returning in 1988 to campaign for multi-party democracy.
Amid an uprising against his predecessor, he proclaimed himself
president in October 2000, at the age of 55.
He derives much of his support from the mostly Christian south and
west.
Prime minister: Guillaume Soro
The president appointed rebel leader Guillaume Soro prime minister in
March 2007 weeks after the former arch rivals signed a power-sharing
peace deal that guaranteed Mr Soro's New Forces a role in a
transitional government.
The deal envisaged that elections would be held within 10 months.
However, after lengthy delays they were held in October and November
2010.
The transitional unity government formed by Mr Soro in 2007 was
dissolved by President Gbagbo in February 2010 after violent protests
at the government's handling of the process of voter registration.
Several weeks later, Mr Soro announced a new transitional unity
government including both main opposition parties. However, 11 of the
27 ministerial posts remained vacant after President Gbagbo rejected
the names proposed by several opposition parties.
Mr Soro, a former student leader, came to the fore during the 2002
rebellion that led to the country's division. He served in the
reconciliation government of his predecessor, Charles Konan Banny.
Radio is Ivory Coast's most popular medium. There is a tier of low-
power, non-commercial community radio stations, including some run by
the Catholic Church.
There are no private terrestrial TV stations, although pay-TV services
are provided by Canal Satellite Horizons.
Rebels in the centre of the country use state radio and TV facilities
in Bouake for their own broadcasts.
The Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders says Ivory
Coast is "one of Africa's most dangerous countries for both local and
foreign media".
In 2004, amid attacks on rebels in the north, the government used the
media under its control, particularly state broadcaster Radiodiffusion
Television Ivoirienne (RTI), as a powerful tool in the crisis. In 2006
members of the Young Patriots militia - loyal to President Gbagbo -
invaded RTI headquarters.
In 2007 UN peacekeepers decried "the growing number of inflammatory
articles in the press" as well as an increasing number of violent
attacks against publications.
The peacekeepers launched their own radio station, Onuci FM, in 2005.
Initially available in Abidjan, the station extended its reach to
cover rebel-held towns in the north.
BBC World Service broadcasts on FM in Abidjan (94.3), Yamoussoukro
(97.7) and Bouake (93.9).
The press
Fraternité Matin - state-owned daily
Notre Voie - daily, owned by ruling party
Le Patriote - opposition daily
Soir Info - private daily
Le Nouveau Reveil - private daily
Le Jour - private daily
24 Heures - private daily
Le Front - private daily
L'Inter - private daily
Television
Radiodiffusion Television Ivoirienne (RTI) - state-run, operates La
Premiere and TV2
Radio
Radiodiffusion Television Ivoirienne (RTI) - state-run, operates La
Chaine Nationale and Frequence 2
Nostalgie - private, Abidjan FM station
Africa No1 - relay of Gabon-based pan-African station, with some local
programming
Radio Espoir - Abidjan Catholic station
Radio Paix Sanwi - Aboisso Catholic station
Onuci FM - run by UN peacekeepers
News agency
Agence Ivoirienne de Presse (AIP) - state-owned
-----------------
It is easy in the world to live after the world's opinion, it is easy
in solitude to live after your own; but the great man is he who, in
the midst of the world, keeps with perfect sweetness the independence
of solitude. -Ralph Waldo Emerson, writer and philosopher (1803-1882)
-----------------
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