80k supporter update - made our targets

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Benjamin Todd

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Nov 11, 2017, 4:04:58 PM11/11/17
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Hi everyone,


Here’s our update for the last 2 weeks, and the end of the last bout of 2017.


Summary metrics


Cash reserves/£ (approx, end Oct-17)

1,265,543

Costs last month/£ (approx, end Oct-17)

42,408

Cash reserves divided by spending last month

30

Months’ runway (rough estimate based on expansion budget, including commitments to donate, end Oct-17)

10.5

# of salaried employees (FTE, excluding freelancers)

6.1

Freelancers

8 (2.3 FTE)

Morale (on a scale of 1-10, full-time staff average)

8.6



Primary growth metric

Value 10 plan changes


Period

Month on month (using 3 month average)

Monthly compound rate

Over 1 month (5-Nov)

17%


Over 6 months

300%

26%

Over 1 year

300%

12%

Over 2 years

1678%

13%

Over 3 years

1600%

8%




Monthly growth chart - new “value 10” plan changes per month



Progress in 2 sentences


We made our targets. For the next month, we’ll be focused on our annual review.



-----------------------Full update -----------------------



Plan change update


Michael Page, one of our plan changes from last year, became Policy and Ethics Advisor at OpenAI, which could be a key position in the new field of long-term AI strategy.



Weekly lag targets - value 10 plan changes


Value 10 plan changes

New 10s

Running total

Target

Difference

Week ending 5 Nov

2

38

35.2

2.8

Week ending 29 Oct

1

36

34

2

Week ending 22 Oct

2

35

32.8

2.2


Note that we had missed two plan changes in earlier weeks due to an incorrect date, so the figures from previous weeks have increased by 2.



What were the plan changes last week?


  • One person with a math PhD who is planning to switch from math research to AI safety or global priorities research.

  • Another person who took an important support role at a top AI org.



How did we make the targets?


  • Most of the plan changes are by people we’ve coached over the last year, and followed up with recently.

  • This vindicates previous efforts, but shows that there’s a significant lag on when they pay off. Many plan changes only become clear 3-24 months after coaching.

  • Almost all the plan changes involved a combination of (i) reading content about top paths, (ii) community introductions & connections in these paths, and (iii) one-on-one advice (we’ve spoken to all of them in-person). All these elements are complementary.

  • We’re excited by these results, since it suggests we have a scalable machine to produce more value 10 plan changes. We just need to keep improving each aspect: better online content, a better selection process, improving the coaching offering, and so on. We have lots of ideas, and we’ll go into more depth in the annual review.



Weekly lead metric targets


Lead metric scoreboard

At end of most recent period

Target

Difference

Tier 1 coaching backlog (in weeks)

4.5

1

3.5

Hours spent coaching

33

15.0

18.0

New significant content releases running total

15

15.0

0.0

New tier 1s per content release within a month

1.6

4

-2.4


We made all our targets, except the last one (which we’ve discussed in previous updates).


We did lots of coaching at EAG, we’ve continued to attract tier 1 leads, so have a large coaching backlog, and we released the following content:


Content released in the last two weeks




Other key progress


  • 5 of us attended EAG London last weekend, where we gave several talks, ran 3 mixers, did 15 user interviews about the coaching landing page, recorded 4 podcasts, and coached about 15 people.

  • We released an updated version of our coaching application form, which should make it easier to spot the people we want to coach, while speeding the process up for our readers.

  • Started on our annual review - sketched it out, made a timeline of achievements, and asked some donors for feedback on what to include.

  • Finished a huge article making the case for a focus on extinction risks, but which hasn’t yet been publicly promoted. Since we already have a large coaching backlog, we intend to promote it in Jan.




The plan


Our main focus for the next month will be our annual review. We’ll evaluate progress over the year, come up with plans for 2018, and write them up. In Dec, we’ll do our annual fundraise. Spare time will go into more coaching and content.


We probably won’t write another update until after the annual review, so till then,



Ben



--

Benjamin Todd | CEO & co-founder  | 80,000 Hours
www.80000hours.org    |    b...@80000hours.org

80,000 Hours is part of the Centre for Effective Altruism, a registered charity in England and Wales, Registered Charity Number 1149828
Centre for Effective Altruism, Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics, Littlegate House, St Ebbes Street, Oxford OX1 1PT, UK

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