Future predictions:Future predictions: Effects of Climate Change on urban areas Effects of Climate Change on urban areas
Alex S
Due to the IPCC report climate change causes global warming by also attaching atmospheric temperature. The concept of “urban heat island” can cause a further increase of temperature in urban areas making them even more vulnerable. According to the study represented in the article urban heat island will perhaps be equivalent to about half the warming caused by climate change by the year 2050. In consequence additional to 2 degrees warming from climate change there would be a warming of one more degree in cities. Depending the location some cities can experience more or less additional warming. But an increase by double of the global warming impact is also possible.
How do urban heat island work and develop?
Figure 1: Urban Heat Islands
Statistical models based on projections for future urban expansion show the importance to complement these projections in the IPCC reports as they are not considered yet. According to these models by 2050 2/3 of the world population will live in an urban area implicating the growing importance of building up future adaptation strategies.
The combination of increasing urbanisation, growing global warming and the additional urban heating sets out a risk for more intense and longer lasting heat waves. This puts human being’s health on high risk. The danger of long-lasting heatwaves was experienced in the European heatwave of 2003 with a death toll of at least 30,000 creating one of the deadliest natural disaster in the last century. Even though people suffered all over Europe the cities were set out to a higher degree of temperatures as to be seen in Paris. Despite the future prediction’s cities must prepare and think about adaptation strategies not to underestimate the threat of heat waves and their growing impact due to climate change.
Key Literature:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/urban-heat-islands-mean-warming-will-be-worse-in-cities/