Rawles Calls Major Bottom in Silver Price

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Rawles Calls Major Bottom in Silver Price jwra...@my-deja.com 2/8/01 12:40 PM
I have come to the conclusion that the long term bear trend in the price
of silver has finally come to an end.  Silver touched $4.55 earlier
today. (Feb. 8, 2001.)   If it closes in N.Y. at over $4.75 anytime in
the next few weeks, that would be a strong bullish indicator. Look at
the six month and ten year silver charts at www.kitco.com for the "big
picture." Once there is a strong bullish indication, don't hesitate to
buy a good chunk of silver, pronto. FWIW, I just made another silver
purchase to take advantage of the recent dip. (I’d rather buy early than
late.)

For those of you living in these united States, I recommend buying
silver in the form of  pre-1965 mint date circulated U.S. silver coinage
(dimes, quarters, and half dollars.) That is the best for barter
purposes, and unlike bullion rounds/bars is less likely to be subject to
government confiscation. See the free FAQs at my web site for details:
www.rawles.to

For the market fundamentals on silver, see:
http://www.silver-investor.com/
(Some interesting observations on the lack of silver to meet demand.)

And for general information and analysis on precious metals, see:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/
 (Note: I am not affiliated in any way with either of these sites.)

I anticipate that the next 50 basis point cut by the Fed FOMC  (expected
in the next quarter) will prove to be ineffective at rallying the stock
market, turning the economy around, or even in flattening the bond yield
curve. (Austrian school economists call it: "Pushing on a string.") The
bond yield curve is still highly inverted. With the economy slowing this
quickly, it would probably take ANOTHER 100 basis points to flatten the
yield curve. And even more of a cut to push it back into its
historically normal shape.

In my estimation, there will NOT be a soft landing for our economy! Look
for interest rates to continue to be artificially ratcheted down, the
dollar to go down versus the individual European currencies and the
Euro, the NASDAQ and Dow to continue their bear cycles, and virtually
all commodities (including the precious metals) to go up by at least 30%
in the next nine months. (Except for the platinum-palladium group which
has *already* jumped.) The smart money will not be headed to America, or
anything that is U.S. dollar denominated. Not when there will be much
higher rates of return available in Euro-land.

I may not have called the bottom perfectly, (silver may sag down to
$4.25 before it rallies), but beyond that, IMHO  the downside risk is
minimal.

And what about gold, you may ask?  In my opinion, silver is much more
likely to double than gold.  This is much like buying penny stocks.
(Which is more likely double--XYZ Corp. at 58 cents a share, or IBM at
$108.00 a share?)

Just my (pre-1965) $.10 worth!

James Wesley, Rawles
author of the survivalist novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming
Collapse."
http://www.rawles.to

Disclaimer:  I am not a registered financial planner, a broker, or a
dealer.  I'm just an individual contrarian investor. My main interest is
survival. Buy your beans, bullets, and band-aids before you invest in
anything else! Precious metals investing is one way to protect your
wealth AFTER you have your logistics squared away.


Sent via Deja.com
http://www.deja.com/

Rawles Calls Major Bottom in Silver Price Oframe45 2/8/01 4:30 PM
Silver and gold compliment the stock market (lag).  Therefore  if and
additional 100 basis points are needed then, you have more bottom movement to
go.

Both gold and silver are effected by the use of drug trafficers as a way to
launder money.  This is a major reason that the prices are suppresed below
production cost.

Platinum has a better long term upside.

Rawles Calls Major Bottom in Silver Price A.T. Hagan 2/9/01 7:18 AM
On Thu, 08 Feb 2001 20:28:16 GMT, jwra...@my-deja.com wrote:

>I have come to the conclusion that the long term bear trend in the price
>of silver has finally come to an end.  Silver touched $4.55 earlier
>today. (Feb. 8, 2001.)   If it closes in N.Y. at over $4.75 anytime in
>the next few weeks, that would be a strong bullish indicator. Look at
>the six month and ten year silver charts at www.kitco.com for the "big
>picture." Once there is a strong bullish indication, don't hesitate to
>buy a good chunk of silver, pronto. FWIW, I just made another silver
>purchase to take advantage of the recent dip. (I’d rather buy early than
>late.)

Now I do think that everyone ought to have some precious metals on
hand, AFTER they've gotten more important preps squared away first
but as far investing in precious metals is concerned I think it's
still likely a no-go.

Seems like we've been hearing from the gold (and silver) bugs for
years how the price of bullion was going to skyrocket "any time now"
and so far it's been mighty lackluster (to be charitable about it).
I'm *still* behind on the silver I bought eight years ago.

A certain amount of money that clinks, most especially in the form
of U.S. coinage, can be a very good thing to have because there are
circumstances where nothing else will serve better (like maybe
bribing a shrimp boat captain or some such) but that's for keeping
you from losing everything, not for making a killing.

>James Wesley, Rawles
>author of the survivalist novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming
>Collapse."
>http://www.rawles.to

A good story.  Any idea where I can get an electronic copy of the
earlier versions of your stories from?  My last equipment upgrade
trashed a bunch of files to include your stories and I miss them.

...............Alan.


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From the House at Cat's Green  - Alan T. Hagan -  NRA Life Member

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