KickSat decay prediction

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KickSat decay prediction Jon 4/27/14 10:21 AM
Today's predictions set the decay at: May 14 at 22h 47' UTC +- 2 days.


Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction michael.eugene.turner 4/27/14 10:43 PM
On Mon, Apr 28, 2014 at 2:21 AM, Jon Mikel <jonm...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Today's predictions set the decay at: May 14 at 22h 47' UTC +- 2 days.

What are you using for orbit prediction? I'd like to have a basis of
comparison for SpriteOrbits

  https://github.com/ProjectPersephone/SpriteOrbits


Regards,
Michael Turner
Executive Director
Project Persephone
K-1 bldg 3F
7-2-6 Nishishinjuku
Shinjuku-ku Tokyo 160-0023
Tel: +81 (3) 6890-1140
Fax: +81 (3) 6890-1158
Mobile: +81 (90) 5203-8682
tur...@projectpersephone.org
http://www.projectpersephone.org/

"Love does not consist in gazing at each other, but in looking outward
together in the same direction." -- Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

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Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 4/28/14 10:46 AM
Hello Michael;


And for orbit predictions I use softwares made from the visual amateur satellite tracking, not difficult to find (only for windows). I find Orekit very interesting, thanks for sharing it. Will try it later.

Today something changed on drag terms of the Kicksat orbits and the decay is set now to: 2014 May 19 @ 19h 43' UTC, +- 5 days (accuracy is again of 5 days due to the uncertainty of this change). 2 days before re-enter I will start giving more data, like the ground track of the decay orbit with predicted re-enter site, predicted TLEs and altitude graphics. The KickSat decay prediction will change suddenly after the Sprites deployment, and it will re-enter before of those predictions.

For Michael: Those softwares have not special value if there are not TLEs avaiable for the object. But the prediction of decay of the kicksat is a good reference to see when are going to re-enter the Sprites. Anyway they should re-enter before than KickSat, due to a less relation of mass/volume.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Mike Rupprecht 4/28/14 11:26 AM
I would say in the morning hours of the 15th May (SatEvo and the given 10.8cm flux (122) of today 

73 Mike
DK3WN



Am Sonntag, 27. April 2014 19:21:27 UTC+2 schrieb Jon Mikel:
Today's predictions set the decay at: May 14 at 22h 47' UTC +- 2 days.


Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 4/28/14 11:31 AM
Hello Mike, where did you get the 122 10.8 cm flux? Today was at 151 p/cm3. 
Re: KickSat decay prediction Mike Rupprecht 4/28/14 1:15 PM
Hi Jon


Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2014:04:28

Julian Day Number                            : 2456776.197
Carrington Rotation Number                   : 2149.792
Observed Flux Density                        : 120.3
Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U.             : 121.9

73 Mike


Am Sonntag, 27. April 2014 19:21:27 UTC+2 schrieb Jon Mikel:
Today's predictions set the decay at: May 14 at 22h 47' UTC +- 2 days.


Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 4/28/14 1:28 PM
Thanks Mike. Hoewer a flux of 121 looks me too low. Will ask it.

My experience says that to make an average of past days data is better, or at this epoch of the solar cicle the density is about 151 p/cm3.
Time will say it.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 4/29/14 1:11 PM
Hi all;

Today's KickSat decay prediction is: 2014 may 16 @ 15h 38' +- 2 days.

The 2 days accuracy comes because last 4 TLEs are indication that re-entry will be this day. Hoewer this could change, specially after the Sprites deployment.


Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 4/30/14 2:26 AM
Hi all;

Today's decay prediction is not good cause a not good TLE drag terms. Prediction is for may 18 at ~22:00 UTC. Later hopelly will post another prediction if another TLE is posted.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/2/14 2:45 AM
Hi all;

Sad news. As other sources expected, KickSat will decay before than my predictions. Today's prediction set the re-entry to may 10 @ 12h 2' UTC +- 2 days. But I would not be surprised if the re-entry is the 9th of may. As I post in the previous messages the re-entry prediction can change after the deploy of the Sprites.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Bryan Foster 5/2/14 12:02 PM
Does this mean its going to be pretty much over by the 9th of may 2014? dang that was short lived! i wolnt even get my equipment in the mail before this happens :(
Re: KickSat decay prediction Dave Webb 5/2/14 12:09 PM

Bryan,

There are plenty of other satellites to listen to.  There are also the NOAA weather satellites that you can receive the picture from http://www.rtlsdr.com/2013/07/how-to-receive-noaa-satellite-images/

Dave-KB1PVH

Sent from my Verizon Wireless Droid RAZR

Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/2/14 3:10 PM
Hi All;

Zac says that Sprites will be deployed tomorrow 4th of apr UTC. Current decay prediction is: may 10 @ 20h 34' UTC +-40 hours. The prediction accuracy increased a lot today because last elsets have very stable values for orbital evolution. Tomorrow after deployment the drag values will change so predictions will become little bit mad. Hopely in 1 or 2 days the drag values will be enough stabilized again for be able to make accurate decay predictions.

Days before re-entry I will start to post here and on twitter more data, like the orbital evolution output from different softwares, ground track of predicted decay orbit, altitude graphics etc.

Jon. (@Itzalpean).
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/3/14 8:58 AM
Something is happening on KickSat's orbit. The predictions are totally crazy.

Now KickSat deacy prediction is set to: may 14 @ 9h 58' UTC. I do not dare to give accuracy. Updates soon. Hopely this prediction is mantained, to give more time to Zac to send telemetry.

All support to the project managers because of the system reset :(

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/3/14 9:08 AM
Here altitude graphic + orbit evolution prediction. Red line is apogee and blue perigee height.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/3/14 9:51 AM
Hi all again;

I'm really sorry for too many messages. I set bad the data for TLE retrieving and I downloaded all orbits except today's. With today's orbits the KickSat reentry prediction its better: may 16 @ 15h 33' UTC. I do not dare to give accuracy limits.
In this case the Sprites would be deployed only few hours before reentry. Sadly the reentry prediction is too unestable to make any good prediction. Lets see what surprises comes with next TLEs. 

Other decay prediction sources are not reporting decay prediction for this satellite. I think its due to the unestable predictions. The USPACECOM's last prediction is too old (about 2 days after the Kicksat deployment) to be accurate.


Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Zac Manchester 5/3/14 11:09 AM
Thanks Jon. I appreciate you keeping our reentry predictions updated. Our best chance for a Sprite deployment now is to have KickSat stay in orbit until the 16th.

- Zac


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Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/3/14 4:08 PM
Tanks to you Zac, for giving me the chance to post here my predictions.

I dont want to give false hopes, and the following information can change: A new orbit of KickSat is avaiable, and with that the prediction is: may 17 @ 1h 54'UTC (+- 3 days?)

With this the decay curve would be like the attached one.

(Image and all this data is public domain)


P.D: I write on my blog an article about the problem: http://itzalgune.blogspot.com.es/2014/05/el-cubesat-kicksat-en-problemas.html 
Its writed on spanish, but Google translator works well with spanish-english translations.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/4/14 2:16 AM
Hi all;

Sad news: Current KickSat decay prediction is: may 16 @ 4h 12' UTC (+- 3 days?). About 20 hours before than the last prediction.

Attached the decay curve:

When an object is near of decay the USPACECOM starts to publish more TLEs per day than a normal LEO satelite. A normal LEO satellite orbit is updated 1 time per day or 1 per 2 days. An object near reentry can have 4 TLEs per day or more. So when KickSat is about to decay they (hopely) will start giving more data, increasing the accuracy of decay predictions.

Methods and softwares used explained at: https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/kicksat-gs/dragon/kicksat-gs/IKCfh2CrnIU/PzuOGL9wNrgJ

Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/4/14 11:04 AM
Hi all;

As Janos said, the decay prediction is stablised to 15-16 of may. But we never know.

A TLE is just published, so the prediction now is: may 16 @ 1h 38' UTC (+- 3 days?).

Again the decay curve:


Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/4/14 3:35 PM
A fast update:

A new TLE sets the decay prediction to: may 15 @ 2h 22' UTC  (+- 3 days?).

Tomorrow more.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction michael.eugene.turner 5/4/14 5:32 PM
I've been socked in with work and family matters, and haven't been paying much attention. In particular, and haven't gotten back to SpriteOrbits since the Tokyo International Space Apps Challenge, where my team won a prize thanks to my management style, which consisted largely of shrugging and saying "that sounds good" (even when the suggested idea was in Japanese I couldn't quite understand) and "anyone want more ice cream?"

Let me issue another plea for help. SpriteOrbits is based on Orekit, a fairly mature open source orbital dynamics library. It features some atmospheric models with heritage in ESA mission support. SpriteOrbits might help clear up some of the uncertainties around orbital decay prediction.


I'd hoped that SpriteOrbits could be used in KickSat mission support. More recently, that hope has diminished to the idea of using it for post-mission analysis: try to fit its results to (fuzzy) individual Sprite orbit observations. Maybe something could be learned on both sides.

But if it's not too late for the mission support problem, please weigh in and tell me what you'd like to see in SpriteOrbits, and what you might be able to contribute.


Regards,
Michael Turner
Executive Director
Project Persephone
K-1 bldg 3F
7-2-6 Nishishinjuku
Shinjuku-ku Tokyo 160-0023
Tel: +81 (3) 6890-1140
Fax: +81 (3) 6890-1158
Mobile: +81 (90) 5203-8682
tur...@projectpersephone.org
http://www.projectpersephone.org/

"Love does not consist in gazing at each other, but in looking outward together in the same direction." -- Antoine de Saint-Exupéry


Re: KickSat decay prediction Rick Mann 5/4/14 8:22 PM

On May 4, 2014, at 17:32 , Michael Turner <michael.eu...@gmail.com> wrote:

> where my team won a prize thanks to my management style, which consisted largely of shrugging and saying "that sounds good"

:-)

--
Rick



Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/5/14 1:03 PM
Hi Michael;

I can´t run Orekit. I am using windows now, I'm planning to install Xubuntu soon. If I understand well, Orekit can run in any OS with Java, but i dont know what is going on with my computer and I cant run in. Hoewer after the end of KickSat mission I will investigate it. Now I'm too busy.
Thanks a lot for the info.

Next decay prediction coming in some minutes.


Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/5/14 1:42 PM
Hi Michael;

I can´t run Orekit. I am using windows now, I'm planning to install Xubuntu soon. If I understand well, Orekit can run in any OS with Java, but i dont know what is going on with my computer and I cant run in. Hoewer after the end of KickSat mission I will investigate it. Now I'm too busy.
Thanks a lot for the info.

UPDATE: Current KickSat decay prediction is: may 14 @ 13h 58'UTC (+-3 days?).



Jon.

El lunes, 5 de mayo de 2014 05:22:33 UTC+2, Rick Mann escribió:
Re: KickSat decay prediction Zac Manchester 5/5/14 6:02 PM
Thanks for the update Jon. Still hoping it's +3 rather than -3 ;-)

- Zac


On Mon, May 5, 2014 at 4:42 PM, Jon Mikel <jonm...@gmail.com> wrote:
Hi Michael;

I can´t run Orekit. I am using windows now, I'm planning to install Xubuntu soon. If I understand well, Orekit can run in any OS with Java, but i dont know what is going on with my computer and I cant run in. Hoewer after the end of KickSat mission I will investigate it. Now I'm too busy.
Thanks a lot for the info.

UPDATE: Current KickSat decay prediction is: may 14 @ 13h 58'UTC (+-3 days?).



Jon.

El lunes, 5 de mayo de 2014 05:22:33 UTC+2, Rick Mann escribió:

On May 4, 2014, at 17:32 , Michael Turner <michael.eu...@gmail.com> wrote:

> where my team won a prize thanks to my management style, which consisted largely of shrugging and saying "that sounds good"

:-)

--
Rick



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Re: KickSat decay prediction Rick Mann 5/5/14 6:43 PM
Zac, what was the reasoning behind needing 8 V to allow RF commands?
--
Rick



Re: KickSat decay prediction Zac Manchester 5/5/14 7:04 PM
Hi Rick,

8V is the threshold "turn on" voltage for the main flight computer (smart phone) which interfaces with the S-band transceiver. All of this stuff was turned on when the spacecraft first launched, but most of the subsystems get turned off when the batteries get below 7V to save power. They don't turn back on again until the batteries get back up to 8V.

- Zac
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/6/14 6:54 AM
Hi all;

Sorry Zac, bad news :( 

Current prediction is: may 13 @ 17h 30' UTC +- 3 days.

The predictions are making like a wave. First they are retarding progresivelly and then bringing forward. The good new is that now the prediction is now bringing foroward, but if this "wave curve" is still happening, we are going to start delaying the decay when the decay date is bringing near. Of course this could not happen. Decay predictions are very uncertain... 
I'd love to bring you good news but the TLEs are not allowing me this honor :(

Jon.


Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/6/14 7:59 AM
Hi all;

A new TLE is just released minutes ago. 

The decay prediction its a little bit better now: may 14 @ 3h 36' UTC

The decay curve is:

Reentry predicted after 404 orbits since deployment.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/7/14 9:44 AM
Hi all;

Just a fast update.
The KickSat decay prediction is starting to stabilize for may 14 :(. Current decat prediction is: may 14 @ 12h 21' UTC +- 3days. Lets see, because the decay curve start falling too early for me. My experience says that it would be a little bit later of may 14, but I dont know if enough for reach may 16.

As ever, software used is SatEvo/(SatAna), made by Alan Pickup.


Jon.

El martes, 6 de mayo de 2014 16:59:55 UTC+2, Jon Mikel escribió:
Hi all;

A new TLE is just released minutes ago. 

The decay prediction its a little bit better now: may 14 @ 3h 36' UTC

The decay curve is:

Reentry predicted after 404 orbits since deployment.

Jon.

El martes, 6 de mayo de 2014 15:54:04 UTC+2, Jon Mikel escribió:
Hi all;

Sorry Zac, bad news :( 

Current prediction is: may 13 @ 17h 30' UTC +- 3 days.

The predictions are making like a wave. First they are retarding progresivelly and then bringing forward. The good new is that now the prediction is now bringing foroward, but if this "wave curve" is still happening, we are going to start delaying the decay when the decay date is bringing near. Of course this could not happen. Decay predictions are very uncertain... 
I'd love to bring you good news but the TLEs are not allowing me this honor :(

Jon.


Jon.

El martes, 6 de mayo de 2014 04:04:48 UTC+2, Zac Manchester escribió:
Hi Rick,

8V is the threshold "turn on" voltage for the main flight computer (smart phone) which interfaces with the S-band transceiver. All of this stuff was turned on when the spacecraft first launched, but most of the subsystems get turned off when the batteries get below 7V to save power. They don't turn back on again until the batteries get back up to 8V.

- Zac
Re: KickSat decay prediction Zac Manchester 5/7/14 10:08 AM
Thanks again for keeping us updated Jon.

- Zac


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Re: KickSat decay prediction S marie Johnson 5/7/14 10:10 AM
Hi everyone,
I have eternal optimism and believe that we will make the 16th of May.
Shelley :) 


On Wed, May 7, 2014 at 12:44 PM, Jon Mikel <jonm...@gmail.com> wrote:

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Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/7/14 2:37 PM
Hi all;

USPACECOM published their first decay prediction. They set the decay may 10, in about 3 days. I think it could be possible, but new orbits have to confirm it. 

When I saw the "may 10" prediction I started to compute with other methods new and different decay predictions. But they are not moving it from may 14. 
This situation is very unusual. Normally SatEvo predictions does not differ more than 1 day on such a short period of time.

Lets see if the USPACECOM can be wrong. Its their first recent decay message, so maybe they dont "point" well. This is my guess.
At now KickSat entered the 16 rev/day orbit. This is a very very low altitude (270x244 km) but it should survive more than only 3 days. Seeing the mean motion, it ups about 0.02 rev/day per day, but this will change soon. KickSat will re-enter when the mean motion is about 16.3 to 16.4 rev/day.


Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/7/14 2:45 PM
Hi again;

Seeing the altitude graphics I dare to say that a may 10 decay has no sense. Its too early.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction michael.eugene.turner 5/7/14 11:27 PM
I don't know if it would be much of a life-extender, or if it's possible (or even whether it has already been thought of and attempted), but how about this:

If you can at least command the magnetorquers, reduce drag by telling them to orient KickSat so that it maintains a lengthwise tangent relationship (or however you say that in engineeringese) to its own orbit. Then its drag would be that of a 1U, give or take.

I guess this tactic could endanger adequate battery charging, depending on how the solar panels are arranged. Among other trade-offs I probably can't begin to imagine.

My apologies if this idea has already appeared somewhere, even on this list -- I mostly scrape the ground-station reports into a folder for later analysis.


Regards,
Michael Turner
Executive Director
Project Persephone
K-1 bldg 3F
7-2-6 Nishishinjuku
Shinjuku-ku Tokyo 160-0023
Tel: +81 (3) 6890-1140
Fax: +81 (3) 6890-1158
Mobile: +81 (90) 5203-8682
tur...@projectpersephone.org
http://www.projectpersephone.org/

"Love does not consist in gazing at each other, but in looking outward together in the same direction." -- Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/8/14 12:02 AM
Hi all;

Just a fast update.
A new TLE is avaiable, and current decay prediction is: may 14 @ 17h 33' UTC +- 2 days. Looks that USPACECOM prediction was wrong, but I would prefer to wait to new TLEs to be sure.

As allways, predictions are made with SatEvo, by Alan Pickup.


Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Zac Manchester 5/8/14 6:04 AM
Hi Michael,

This is definitely a good idea as far as the physics goes. Unfortunately, we don't have the ability to command anything at the moment. The uplink radio on KickSat has been switched off ever since the battery voltage dropped below 7V.

- Zac



On Thu, May 8, 2014 at 2:27 AM, Michael Turner <michael.eu...@gmail.com> wrote:
I don't know if it would be much of a life-extender, or if it's possible (or even whether it has already been thought of and attempted), but how about this:

If you can at least command the magnetorquers, reduce drag by telling them to orient KickSat so that it maintains a lengthwise tangent relationship (or however you say that in engineeringese) to its own orbit. Then its drag would be that of a 1U, give or take.

I guess this tactic could endanger adequate battery charging, depending on how the solar panels are arranged. Among other trade-offs I probably can't begin to imagine.

My apologies if this idea has already appeared somewhere, even on this list -- I mostly scrape the ground-station reports into a folder for later analysis.


Regards,
Michael Turner
Executive Director
Project Persephone
K-1 bldg 3F
7-2-6 Nishishinjuku
Shinjuku-ku Tokyo 160-0023
Tel: +81 (3) 6890-1140
Fax: +81 (3) 6890-1158
Mobile: +81 (90) 5203-8682
tur...@projectpersephone.org
http://www.projectpersephone.org/

"Love does not consist in gazing at each other, but in looking outward together in the same direction." -- Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/8/14 6:32 AM
Hi all;

2 new TLEs are avaiable. Second one is not good, a drag term is missing, but it fits good with the decay and with mean motion. So I can say that USPACECOM yesterday's prediction was wrong.

This morning I spent some hours trying to improve the prediction. So now Im using different coeficients and other variable values. This fits better and residuals are lower now, so the accuracy should be better now.

My current decay prediction is: may 14 @ 12h 52' UTC +- 2 days. The decay looks definetively stabilized on may 14 :(.

Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction michael.eugene.turner 5/8/14 7:45 AM
On Thu, May 8, 2014 at 10:04 PM, Zac Manchester <kic...@gmail.com> wrote:

> This is definitely a good idea as far as the physics goes. Unfortunately, we
> don't have the ability to command anything at the moment.

In early e-mail you mentioned that "there is still some hope that the
batteries may recharge sufficiently to command the satellite." If they
get to 7 volts before the 16 days elapse, you still can't release the
Sprites, right? But you can still try this possible life-extension
maneuver? Or did I miss something? Is the entire command uplink gated
to that timer, or just the Sprite release?
Re: KickSat decay prediction daniela daniela 5/8/14 9:34 AM
Problem is radioreceiver is on the mainboard (the modified smartphone)
which is down, not because of the watchdog timer but because, if I
understand correctly, it's set up to be off when battery voltage is
low. Thus no one can call kicksat and tell it to switch on attitude
control and do this and that, nor, for what is worth, to release
sprites in 4, 3, 2, 1, boom! It's unusual for a satellite to be
non-listening, but so it is.
I think threshold is 8V - with 7V I would have more hope.

Daniela
Re: KickSat decay prediction Zac Manchester 5/8/14 10:13 AM
>> This is definitely a good idea as far as the physics goes. Unfortunately, we
>> don't have the ability to command anything at the moment.
>
> In early e-mail you mentioned that "there is still some hope that the
> batteries may recharge sufficiently to command the satellite." If they
> get to 7 volts before the 16 days elapse, you still can't release the
> Sprites, right? But you can still try this possible life-extension
> maneuver? Or did I miss something? Is the entire command uplink gated
> to that timer, or just the Sprite release?

We can bypass the timer and command a deployment from the ground if we can achieve a radio uplink. The problem is that the main flight computer (smart phone) and S-band radio are both needed for this, and both were switched off when the batteries went below 7 volts. There is some hysteresis in the battery management so that the radio and flight computer won't switch back on until the batteries reach 8V, which seems unlikely at this point.

- Zac
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/8/14 12:28 PM
Hi all;

2 news TLEs are avaiable.

Current KickSat decay prediction is: may 14 @ 9h 53' UTC +- 2 days.

As always, predictions were made using SatEvo by Alan Pickup.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/8/14 2:20 PM
Hello all;

A new very strange TLE is published (there is some data wrong). If this TLE orbital values are true, KickSat could re-enter may 12. At now this is uncertain. Tomorrow with more TLEs will post a better analysis.

The reason is the very high increase of mean motion only 0.1 days. See the graphic for more info:



Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/9/14 8:07 AM
Hi all;

A new TLE is just released.

Current decay prediction for KickSat is: may 13 @ 12h 1' UTC +- 2 days. Still 2 day accuracy because the high changing mean motion and drag values.

As allways, I used SatEvo/SatAna by Alan Pickup
Thanks to Bob Christy, satellite analyst and mantainer of zarya.info for his help.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/9/14 10:54 AM
Hi All;

New TLE and fast made prediction (not the best accuracy) puts KickSat reentry may 13 @ 3h 10' UTC +- 2 days.

Later will make better analysis. 

Hopely tomorrow will start providing more data on every message, like derived TLEs, altitude, period etc. graphics, ground track of predicted decay orbits, etc. The reason for not make it since I started making decay predictions is the longer time needed for make every analysis.

As always, predictions are made using SatEvo by Alan Pickup. Thanks again to Bob Christy, analyst of Zarya.info for yesterday's tips.

Jon.


Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/10/14 3:03 AM
Hello to all;

USPACECOM has his own prediction: may 13 @ 23:31 UTC. I think now they are correct. May 10 prediction was clearly wrong.

I changed again the variables that allows SatEvo, so the accuracy is starting to increase.
My prediction sets KickSat reentry may 13 @ 21h 58' UTC +- 30 hours, so KickSat would complete 400 orbits before reentry. Hoewer in case of re-entry stabilization the accuracy would be bigger.

As promised, today I will start providing more data. The final TLEs output of SatEvo is attached. It contains all orbits to decay one by one updated the drag elements for the best accuracy.

The ground track and decay position is:

The position of KickSat is the predicted decay site. Thiw will change surely.

The classic apogee/perigee curve:


Here the period:


Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/11/14 6:02 AM
Hi all;

Just a very fast update.

USPACECOM predicts Kicksat reentry may 14 @ 12h 14' UTC. 

My prediction puts KickSat reentry may 14 may 14 @ 10h 44' UTC +- 24h

Good to see that my prediction is very close to USPACECOM's prediction. Lets see the solar wind speed and other factors.

More data and better analysis later.
As always, the softwares used are SatEvo/SatAna by Alan Pickup. Zarya.info puts reentry may 14 too.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/11/14 2:44 PM
Hi all;

2 news TLEs are avaiable. Current USPACECOM prediction is: 2014-05-14 @12:14 UTC
My prediction sets the KickSat reentry: may 14 @ 3h 5' UTC +- 24 hours. It has not the best accuracy due to the publishment of 2 elsets with practically the same epoch. So today no more detailed data.
As always, the preedictions are made with SatEvo by Alan Pickup.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/12/14 1:55 AM
Hi all;

The USPACECOM has not published new decay predictions yet.

A very fast analysis puts my reentry prediction may 14 @ 1h 49' UTC.

Later I will post more info and will refine the variables for more accaurate predictions.

As always, predictions are made using SatEvo by Alan Pickup.

Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/12/14 6:11 AM
Hi all;
Another fast update.


The USPACECOM has a new prediction and TLEs. Their prediction sets KickSat decay may 14 @ 7h 56' UTC.

My prediction sets KickSat decay may 14 @ 5h4' UTC +-20 hours.

Later better analysis and more data to radio amateurs, like the output TLEs and others.

As always, the predictions are made with SatEvo, by Alan Pickup.

Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Zac Manchester 5/12/14 6:19 AM
Thank you again Jon.

- Zac
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/12/14 2:41 PM
Thanks to you Zac, for giving me the opportunity to post my predictions here.

USPACECOM has not a new prediction yet. Tomorrow most surely they will start giving them every 6 hours.

A new TLE is avaiabale. So my prediction of KickSat re-entry is: may 14 @ 1h 59' UTC +- 15 hours. The accuracy can change if something strange happens.

Attached the final orbital evolution output of SatEvo, by Alan Pickup. every TLE represents a orbit of KickSat with position and drag values updated. See the TLE epoch to choose the correct elset for every orbit.

The decay curve would be:

Feel free to share it.


Period curve is:

And the predicted ground track at decay epoch:


If the re-entry occurs on this time span, the observers of south america and western europe could watch the KickSat reenter. 

More fast updates tomorrow at european morning. This time likely with ground tracks.


Jon.


El lunes, 12 de mayo de 2014 15:19:20 UTC+2, Zac Manchester escribió:
Thank you again Jon.

- Zac
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 1:14 AM
Hi all;

There are no new TLEs avaiable, but thw USPACECOM has updated his prediction: may 14 @ 4h 42' UTC.

Will post new predictions when recent TLEs are avaiable.

Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 5:24 AM
Hi all;

A new (maybe wrong) TLE is avaiable.

Please be carefull with this prediction: may 13 @ 23h 21'UTC +- 7 hours.

I need one orbit more to be sure. Later I will post a better analysis.

Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 5:32 AM
Forgot to mention:

The great analyser Joseph Remis is publishing his own predictions and propagated elements here:

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/reentrywatch

I will update my prediction when new TLEs are avaiable.

Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 7:55 AM
Hi all;

Another fast update.

Happy that the USPACECOM newest prediction comes closer to my last prediction:

The new USPACECOM decay prediction is: may 14 @ 2h 21'UTC.

My new prediction with the most recent 7 TLEs is: may 13 @ 23h 44' UTC +- 5 hours. About 2 hours before than prediction of the USPACECOM. Hoewer I did not make my final analysis, that will include data refine for very low altitudes. No Ground Track and graphics avaiable yet, Im not at home.

More updates in some hours.

Maybe I will make the coverage for final orbits posting here some data of USPACECOM to see if KickSat is still in orbit every half revolution.

Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 10:03 AM
Some data:

SatEvo output:

-----------------------------
        SatEvo v0.51
       by Alan Pickup
 (download SatEvo if you want to have Alan's email)
-----------------------------

Orbital evolution for object 14022F  

Decays after    0.4340 days on date = 14133.9889 (2014 May 13)

  10.8 cm flux = 151.200000

 (OTHER CONTROL FLAGS REMOVED FROM THIS TEXT)

  Transition region: base  86.81; mid 101.40; top 112.44 km

KICKSAT                                          191 x 171 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.55495828  .09265562  49136-1  12178-2 0 90820
2 39685  51.6478 262.3169 0014726 320.6601  39.2330 16.34369149  3954
KICKSAT                                          187 x 169 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.61607966  .10268594  63467-1  11908-2 0 90828
2 39685  51.6475 261.9740 0013965 320.9157  38.9834 16.35560506  3961
KICKSAT                                          183 x 166 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.67715404  .11709324  96940-1  11745-2 0 90824
2 39685  51.6471 261.6307 0013133 321.1716  38.7340 16.36896092  3978
KICKSAT                                          178 x 162 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.73817493  .13826171  14199+0  11641-2 0 90823
2 39685  51.6467 261.2870 0012189 321.4278  38.4850 16.38445958  3987
KICKSAT                                          172 x 158 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.79913276  .17105006  23122+0  11539-2 0 90828
2 39685  51.6462 260.9428 0011081 321.6844  38.2367 16.40314881  3993
KICKSAT                                          165 x 152 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.86001249  .23080537  47334+0  10027-2 0 90824
2 39685  51.6455 260.5981 0009707 321.9415  37.9898 16.42716360  4002
KICKSAT                                          154 x 144 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.92078581  .38374390  14578+1  81416-3 0 90829
2 39685  51.6446 260.2525 0007777 322.1991  37.7461 16.46272472  4010
KICKSAT                                          126 x 121 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.98136514 2.73278605  50000+2  12235-2 0 90822
2 39685  51.6432 259.9053 0003390 322.4580  37.5181 16.56021443  4029

Final decay at 14133.988919
(may 13 @ 23h 44' UTC)

Classic perigee/apogee graphic:

Feel free to share it.

The ground track should be:


Joseph Remis send me by private an email with the result of the current propagation:

KICKSAT 
1 39685U 14022F   14133.67718299  .08431061  48922-1  91684-3 0 00004
2 39685  51.6473 261.6309 0013527 321.1715  38.7313 16.36161783  3970

I speaked with Simone Corbellini, the owner of satflare.com, an online satellite tracking page for entering the propagated orbits on his tracker for have accurate data for be able to reveive the downlink of KickSat. A so low altitude satellite can win tenths of seconds every orbit. Sadly he is not avaiable, but Joseph Remis has the permission of Simone to enter the propagated orbits into the online tracker. If you want to have accurate orbital data, position on sky etc. visit this page:


You can log in for have the sky chart for your position. Please reload the page every half of hour for have the most accurate data possible.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Ben 5/13/14 10:37 AM
Thanks for all the predictions and updates Jon, it is fascinating.


On Wednesday, May 14, 2014 3:03:29 AM UTC+10, Jon Mikel wrote:

Maybe I will make the coverage for final orbits posting here some data of USPACECOM to see if KickSat is still in orbit every half revolution.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Janos Tolgyesi 5/13/14 11:29 AM
This is only a small idea:
on the Simone,s satflare.com page you can extend the tracking window wijh another satellites. I propose to add to the Kicksat traking the ISS itself.
It has a little, maybe very little chance, there will be some parts of the orbits, when they will flying near, or close each others.
If you have a little lucky, maybe you can see the Kickast reentry, from the ISS HDEV camera, from here:
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/HDEV/
Ofcourse the distance between the orbit of the ISS and the Kicksat are signiphicant, and we dont know whewre will be happened this event, but, hopefully it has a little chance.
t.janos
Re: KickSat decay prediction daniela daniela 5/13/14 11:42 AM
Unlikely to see such a tiny object reentry from up there, i think, but should be visibile from the ground if it's night.  

We wont know reentry until the very end with such a small satellite. I trust the window but for the final orbit, let alone ground track, i think we need to have more patience. 

Remember to update TLE frequently from now on! And if someone has good passes and equipment, telemetry just before reentry is very interesting to have. 
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Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 11:57 AM
Great idea, Janos!

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Janos Tolgyesi 5/13/14 12:30 PM

Daniela,
I think so too. But if we dont try it, we havenot chance to see anything.
This new 4 japan HD camera, more or less permanetly on-line on the ISS has some really nice features and challenges.
I spent time in the last days, try to see some reflexions, and other lights. I have recorded screenshots about condense lines of aeroplains, some lightening strikes, some short sunshine reflexions on small lakes.
We are waiting to the predicted comet,s generated meteorite,s shower at 24 maj, maybe we have chance to see something on this camera.
I put here a really interesting screenshot:
the "real visible" parts of it is the narrow line of the Earth at the middle of the picture, and the details of the ISS itself. The other elements are light reflexions only, the visible lines of the sunshines, the small balls anf points, maybe can interpret, as spreading the light on small drops (?). The most nice reflexion comes from a "half-mirror" surface, and reflected the objective of the camera from opposite direction...
So: we havenot too much chance to pick up our nice sat, but try to hunting, it has challenges.
t.janos

Re: KickSat decay prediction daniela daniela 5/13/14 12:56 PM
Janos i agree if we dont try, we will surely fail. But question is, is camera (and parameters) fixed? If Yes, then we can do analysis in a week if decay is in the field (and night time, and no megalopolis below). If no, we have to try and arrange someone to explain to decision makers why is important to do something, even a little think such as switch on. But we could not do and insist, until we have reliable predictions in a few hours. 

It is maybe possibile to find on the image if we know where it is, but i think it'd take some image processing. Real time, i dont think there is and chance. 

I think camera is fixed which is lucky, as no decision maker involved :) 

Apologies, i am writing from phone with a stupid autocorrector, and i also look forward to seeing the beautiful photo later on a decent monitor

Daniela



On Tuesday, May 13, 2014, Janos Tolgyesi <hg5...@gmail.com> wrote:
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Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 2:40 PM
Hi all;

A new TLE is avaiable.

I had a conversation with Joseph Remis minutes ago about the orbital evolution of KickSat. I had different results than Joseph and the USPACECOM, so I made again another different analysis. I think I could be wrong in this case, and thanks to Joseph I noticed it before sending the message to this mailist.

My first decay prediction (I still without knowing why its wrong) puts KickSat re-enter may 13 @ 23h 55' UTC.
Joseph's prediction sets KickSat re-entry may 14 @ 2h 46' UTC +-3h. His last propagated elset of this result is:

KICKSAT
1 39685U 14022F   14133.86021629  .12667789  12412+0  89866-3 0 00004
2 39685  51.6462 260.5996 0011268 321.9403  37.9800 16.39902360  4004

USPACECOM last TIP message puts KickSat re-enter may 14 @ 2h 21' UTC
And my new analysis sets KickSat reentry may 14 @ 3h 1' UTC.

Those are lot of predictions and lot of time difference. So my guess is that my second prediction is better than my first one (this would give about 3 hours more of life to KickSat), and Joseph's prediction is ideal. I messed so much myself that I've made 3 different decay curves in the same graphic. One of my first prediction, another one with an aproximation to Joseph's curve and third my last prediction:

With zoom and explanation:

The ground track would be:

If the prediction is correct, Africa will be the site for watch to the KickSat reentry. Lets see if someone its lucky.

The result of the last SatEvo propagation is:

-----------------------------
        SatEvo v0.51
       by Alan Pickup
   ((----------------------))
-----------------------------

Orbital evolution for object 14022F  

Decays after    0.3263 days on date = 14134.1256 (2014 May 14)

  10.8 cm flux = 151.100000
 
(OTHER CONTROL FLAGS REMOVED FROM THE TEXT)



  Transition region: base  86.81; mid 101.40; top 112.44 km

KICKSAT                                          175 x 160 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.79914986  .10227838  82165-1  76425-3 0 90839
2 39685  51.6478 260.9438 0011365 321.6781  38.2412 16.39476199  3996
KICKSAT                                          171 x 157 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.86007809  .11977791  11824+0  76011-3 0 90838
2 39685  51.6474 260.5994 0010590 321.9348  37.9904 16.40822814  4002
KICKSAT                                          166 x 153 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.92095192  .14688411  19547+0  68305-3 0 90835
2 39685  51.6470 260.2546 0009688 322.1918  37.7401 16.42432049  4010
KICKSAT                                          160 x 148 km
1 39685U 14022F   14133.98175899  .19434049  36895+0  58674-3 0 90838
2 39685  51.6464 259.9093 0008581 322.4492  37.4908 16.44476550  4023
KICKSAT                                          151 x 142 km
1 39685U 14022F   14134.04247720  .30073284  99413+0  52229-3 0 90837
2 39685  51.6456 259.5633 0007081 322.7072  37.2436 16.47376202  4032
KICKSAT                                          134 x 128 km
1 39685U 14022F   14134.10305173  .87772211  11573+2  59555-3 0 90831
2 39685  51.6443 259.2162 0004440 322.9660  37.0033 16.53115967  4041

Final decay at 14134.125561
may 14 @ 3h 1' UTC
I made propagation with other softwares but they are useless. SatEvo is the best public domain software for this. And maybe between the private ones too.

Please visit http://www.satflare.com/track.asp?q=39685#TOP for track KickSat accurately. You will have the chance to listen it minutes before reentry ;)

As response to Janos:

This is the position of the ISS at KickSat reentry time:

So it will be impossible to watch the KickSat reentry from the station's camera :(


Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 2:50 PM
Sorry, forgot to attach:

The classic decay curve assuming my second prediction is well:

Looks that it will re-enter on the orbit #404.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 3:03 PM
Hi again;

sorry for too many messages.

The USPACECOM just have made public another TIP Message: KickSat reentry: may 14 @ 1h 36' UTC. Curiously, my "wrong" (I still thinking why it could be wrong) prediction is closer than the "good" one. Lets see the final orbits. At now I have total uncertainty of what could happen in next minutes.

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 6:06 PM
There are no new TLEs, no new TIP messages. The KickSat can reenter in any moment. 
Time to bed;

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/13/14 10:36 PM
Hi all;

Sorry for no update the decay. I need to sleep :)

Looks that KickSat is between us now. The reentry time at now is uncertain. There are no last orbits and no USPACECOM TIP messages. Later I will post my estimation of reentry. Maybe the USPACECOM will post the decay place, but it looks unlikeable right now.

My estimations were more or less right, and I can say that KickSat reentered between may 14 @ 1:00 and may 14 @ 2:30 UTC.

Thanks for reading my messages, later I will post my last analysis;


Jon.

Re: KickSat decay prediction Janos Tolgyesi 5/14/14 12:14 AM
Jon,
I would like to express my personal thanks to you for your hard work, to make continuously prediction analysis to the last time, days and hours of our Kicsat.
Such a work has its own hardness and beauties, but mainly have many unceirtain steps, factors, but it is so important and close part of the life of a satellite. Here, in Hungary we have a 1U cubesat, this is Masat-1, it is in orbit more than 2 years, working well, and its decay predicted now around november, this year. I would like to ask you personaly, help me, us to improve our works around this process.

It was very impressive to see, how many people dealing very carefully with the "life" of this nice small sat, Kicksat, received and decoded the telemetry, for evaluation and discussion. It was really a close, community works. Jurij,s proposed table, data-set was a really usefull tool to follow in collective way the important process on the sat,s board.

Finally I can notice, the NASA,s 4 HD camera on ISS have the challenge -in my opinion the first time -, to try to observe from the outside view the existence of such a small objects. This publicly available real time video feed has its own "circumstances", limitations too, but to observe a satellite reentry on the ground level it is rare event too. With this camera assembly, we have a new one opportunity.

If you didnot find the published details of this camera system, I propose to look at into this page:
High Definition Earth Viewing (HDEV) - 04.30.14
ISS Science for Everyone
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/917.html
It seems, the used 4 HD camera have far better picture resolution, as we can see online, hope, at NASA they recorded the majority of the feeds.
It is a rational decision, to reduce signiphycantly the resolution and sizes of the video frames, before to push it to the internet, time-to time for 10-30 tausend visitors. But for us, it would be important to access to the original sequences.
This camera-box was design for minimal human/manual intervention, and control on board, but it has an operational team at the ground station, can use some commands to switch between each camera, change or modify the time frame for each camera, and so.
You can read this:
"The majority of HDEV operations are performed by student teams through the life of the project. "
My personal opinion is, this experiment more important, to leave this student team alone to decided what is important in time-to time from this point of view. We, at amator satellite followers communities, need to try to make contact with this team, and can try to explain our opinions about this.
Here is a link to a picture, inside the box of this camera collection:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/experiments/HDEV7.jpg
You can see at the top left corner the camera, pointed forward to the ISS direction, on bottom side there is the small, Toshiba camera, pointed directly to the Earth, I think, this has the most better picture quality, and at the right side there are two camera looking back, and we can see in them pictures the parts of the ISS.
In the box there are some electronics, mainly power unit, converters, and at the bottom right side is the switching unit, schedule automatically the camera feeds to the download communication link.
This camera experiment has really big popularity, at the start of it, now has more than 16 million visitors.
----
Sorry if this details are OFF TOPIC here, my personal belief is, this topics have emerging importance and maybe, popularity.
best:
t.janos
Re: KickSat decay prediction daniela daniela 5/14/14 3:20 AM
I dont know if the general public (maybe Zac and the team was told, but maybe he can't disclose) will even know the precise time of reentry. 

Various agencies in various countries know it within 10min or so, both the time it went below 100km and the time of disintegration. But such data is not public. Much more so with a small object which would tell us a lot about capabilities of the other party and allow to refine our own analysis. 

Also for the full res and original captures of the hi-res cams on ISS, I would be delighted if the general public can get access to the original video raws, which then the community can process - and find lots of meteors and man-made objects reentering - but i expect we will receive excuses. Even when the data is deemed to be worthless for military purposes, it takes time, do you recall how long it took to get the Voyager raws? 
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Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/14/14 5:10 AM
Hello Janos and Daniela.

Thanks for the comments.
Would be an honour to help you with your cubesat. It was launched on the qualification travel of Vega rocket? If the answer is yes, we will have to have a lot of care with the predictions, satellites in polar orbits are very different. I think I have time to see some analysis and refining my tecniques till november. Of course you can contact with me via email when you want.

At now Im out of home, so I will make my final analysis at european night.

Jon.

unk...@googlegroups.com 5/14/14 1:26 PM <This message has been deleted.>
Re: KickSat decay prediction Jon 5/14/14 2:05 PM
Hi all; sorry for the deleted message, I press the "send" button by error.

I've made again another analysis, but I didnt achieve to increase the accuracy.

The radio amateurs of this mailist failed to listen it in the last moments of life:

Tetsu (JA0CAW) did not hear it may 14 @ 1h 28'. This can be because the very high drag, the orbit ok KickSat was some minutes earlyer that 100 minutes before.
If I make again the decay curve modifying some parameters, it makes possible but the curve is very forced, so my guess is that Tetsu failed pointing due the drag :(

Some other radio amateurs didnt hear KickSat at 4:13 UTC, like r4uab (Sorry for the copy paste).

I've revised my yesterday's analysis and looks that they were more probabilities to occur the reentry on the perigee of the orbit. The perigee was in the middle of africa on the orbit #404, 
the orbit with most probabilities of reentry:

Sorry for made it with paint. The red circle shows the zone of most probabilites of re-entry. The red lines shows the perigee of the possible re-entry orbit and one orbit before and after. 

Sadly I think we will never know when and where did Kicksat touch the floor.


---

I want to thank to everybody for watching my predictions, specially to Zac for giving me the chance to publish my things here. I want to say that I've learned a lot about radio amateurs these days and I started to like this word. Thanks too to all who commented in this subject.
Lets see if we have a KickSat2.

You can contact me via email. 

Jon.
Re: KickSat decay prediction Janos Tolgyesi 5/15/14 4:23 AM
Speculations:
It seems, the Kicksat reentry happened somewhere over south part of Africa, maybe in a desert or forest area?
I have the feeling, there was any small chance for the parts of Sprite sats, to survive the reentry process itself. Specially can we imagine the situation, if in the last burning process the Sprite PCB-s become free, and start to make finish their own reentry processes.
It is not a good circumstances, to fall down on a desert area or in a big forest, where live only wild animals around.
To find such small, possible survived parts for people, havenot attentions to this things, another bad circumstances.
t.janos
Re: KickSat decay prediction Юрий Мироненко 5/15/14 4:36 AM
By the way, pocketspacecraft project going to make sprites analogue (they call it "scouts"), which intended to survive reentry and fall down to earth not only without burning, but in working order.

четверг, 15 мая 2014 г., 15:23:15 UTC+4 пользователь Janos Tolgyesi написал:
Re: KickSat decay prediction Zac Manchester 5/15/14 6:07 AM
On Thursday, May 15, 2014 7:36:49 AM UTC-4, Юрий Мироненко wrote:
By the way, pocketspacecraft project going to make sprites analogue (they call it "scouts"), which intended to survive reentry and fall down to earth not only without burning, but in working order.

The Sprite non-ablative reentry stuff is actually research out of our lab at Cornell from a few years ago:


The technology for actually doing it is still years away.

- Zac

Re: KickSat decay prediction Юрий Мироненко 5/15/14 8:46 AM
They reference this one.

I'm not (yet?) read their paper in details (neither yours), but fast (and dirty) comparision shows their are very close to each other, lot of same references in same order, same "keywords", even same pictures (thought with different variable names). Well, same university and 2 of 3 same authors :)

As far as I understand both concludes that reentry possible for some thin plate. Well, it's what they pretend to do: thin-film analogue of sprite. Don't know technology problems involved, of course.

четверг, 15 мая 2014 г., 17:07:04 UTC+4 пользователь Zac Manchester написал:
Re: KickSat decay prediction Zac Manchester 5/15/14 8:56 AM

They reference this one.

I'm not (yet?) read their paper in details (neither yours), but fast (and dirty) comparision shows their are very close to each other, lot of same references in same order, same "keywords", even same pictures (thought with different variable names). Well, same university and 2 of 3 same authors :)

Yes, that paper is also from our lab and covers much of the same stuff. We've been working in this area for a while. My point is that the pocket spacecraft people are not on any of the papers ;-).
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