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Re: What the handful of economists who predicted the Crash said about it in 2008

Euwe Apr 11, 2012 11:47 AM
Posted in group: Political Forum
I can predict that lightning will not strike my house during the next storm. Or I can predict lightning will strike during the next storm. Your pick.

On Wednesday, April 11, 2012 7:44:19 AM UTC-5, Rebel wrote:
I can predict were lightning will strike, Just give me time....

On Tuesday, April 10, 2012 2:05:33 AM UTC-7, poc wrote:

There are only a handful of economists who predicted this financial crisis, or at least its severity.

This is what some of them said about it in its immediate aftermath. 

How accurate have they been - so far?

Peter Schiff and Ron Paul

Schiff, the manager of over $1 billion dollars in investments, says the U.S. will enter a long period which could be worse than the Great Depression.

Schiff also thinks that the economic crisis might lead to martial law.

He thinks that Asia and Europe, after a period of economic downturn, will "decouple" from the U.S., eventually enjoying great prosperity long before the U.S. recovers.

Schiff has admitted that he did not foresee the current rally in the dollar, and his investors - long in Asian and European stocks - are way down.

Schiff was Ron Paul's chief economic advisor during his campaign. Paul has himself predicted the crisis for many years, and has warned that America is spending more than it can afford. Paul has also repeatedly warned of martial law.

Nouriel Roubini

Roubini, the PhD economist, thinks we are going to have what he calls "stag-deflation", meaning severe stagnation and deflation. Basically, he thinks that we're heading into a depression without extreme government action.

He's also warning of possible food riots.

Marc Faber

PhD economist Faber, who called both the 1987 crash and the current crisis, believes that there will be a bear rally for a couple of months, and then a further crash.

He is convinced the U.S. will go bankrupt sooner or later.

Faber also thinks that the crisis may spell and end for the traditional American form of government, to be replaced by martial law or some other unsavory form of government.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Economist, highly-regarded investment advisor, and one of the world's foremost authorities on derivatives Nassim Nicholas Taleb, thinks that "capitalism I" is over, and things will get very bad before we get to a new form of "capitalism II", where banks will act like utilities instead of money-making pirates.

Taleb has warned that supermarkets may shut down. While he wouldn't directly tell Charlie Rose how bad he thinks things will get, he did say he thinks things will be worse than Roubini is predicting.

Antal E. Fekete and Darryl Schoon

Professor Emeritus of Mathematics Antal E. Fekete and author Darryl Schoon think that our entire modern society will crash and break down (gold bugs, they believe all assets will crater except gold).