This seems right to me, though I don't think it's necessarily going
to not have an impact on the .org product. One of the big features
they're promoting for the new .com is improved ability to manage all
your self-hosted .org sites through the .com interface. I could
imagine a future where they continue in that direction and the
self-hosted product just becomes a thinner and thinner presentation
layer for work that's actually being done more and more in the
centralized service. Maybe the content even stops living in the
self-hosted instance entirely and lives at
wordpress.com instead.
That would actually strengthen the "easy install anywhere" pitch for
the self-hosted product, since the more responsibilities they
offload to the centralized service the fewer features would be
needed on the web host to run the self-hosted software. If your
content actually lives at the .com, for instance, they could drop
MySQL as a dependency completely, which would make setup even easier
and eliminate a whole category of common install/maintenance
problems. At the furthest extreme, the hosting requirements for what
is essentially an API-connected embed code are pretty minimal.
That approach would also make it easier for them to keep the entire
WordPress community's software up to date in a world where people
don't run updates, since they could just update the centralized
service and be done with it. This would be similar to the way that
Google has been loading more and more of what used to be thought of
as Android into Google Play Services, so they can update it directly
without having to push an update through the carriers.
The big downside of course would be that your "self-hosted" software
now has gigantic dependencies on a centralized remote service you
have no control over, which would mean fun times if/when that
service ever get slow or goes down. But that's only a downside if
you care about such things, and in my experience most people don't.
And of course the more of the WordPress world they can move into the
.com, the more the value of the .com goes up and the more
opportunities they have to monetize you; which, yuck.
(/me removes tinfoil hat)
-- Jason