Political winners and losers from the Trump tax-cut bill

[Leroy N. Soetoro]

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/365837-political-winners-and-
losers-from-the-trump-tax-cut-bill

The Republican tax plan won congressional approval on Wednesday and will
soon be signed by President Trump.

The law’s thicket of new provisions will affect families and businesses
across the nation, in ways The Hill has previously reported upon.

But, when it comes to the politics of the bill, who notched a victory and
who took a hit?

Winners

President Trump

Trump badly needed a win on tax reform after the ignominious failure of
the attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also
known as ObamaCare. He faced the very real risk of having no major
legislative achievement by the end of his first calendar year in power.

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That has changed at a stroke, with Trump and his party colleagues in
Congress boasting that they have delivered a Christmas present to the
American people.

The overall political ramifications of the bill are not so clear. A raft
of recent polls — from NBC News, CNN, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac
University, among others — all suggest a plurality of Americans dislike
the new law.

Still if the tax bill strengthens Trump’s claim that he deserves credit
for a robust economy, that could be a substantial political asset in next
year’s midterms and beyond.

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)

Passage of the tax-reform bill was a huge win for Ryan for two reasons.
Firstly, tax reform has been his signature issue since he rose to
prominence as one of the GOP’s so-called “young guns” around the start of
the decade. Secondly, plenty of people in Trump’s orbit pinned blame on
Ryan for the failure of the push on health care, and this is a powerful
counter to accusations that he lacks strategic skill.

Critics insist that the law could end up hurting Republicans, but there is
no doubt this was a major victory for him. The exuberance with which Ryan
gaveled a critical vote to a close on Tuesday showed that he knows it.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas)

On Capitol Hill, Brady was identified with the push for tax reform at
least as much as Ryan. He was a tireless advocate for the effort,
insisting since Republicans took hold of a unified government in January
that action would happen.

Brady gave a host of media interviews defending the plan, but his behind-
the-scenes actions were even more important in pushing it to the finish
line.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)

McConnell’s relationship with Trump has been even more volatile than
Ryan's.

But he piloted the reform push through the Senate with remarkably few
problems. In the end, not a single Republican in the upper chamber voted
against the final plan — a stark contrast to the ObamaCare push, which was
capsized by opposition from Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa
Murkowski (Alaska) and John McCain (Ariz.).

Trump tweeted on Thursday that McConnell had “done a fantastic job both
strategically and politically.”

McConnell for his part, cited tax reform, the appointment of Neil Gorsuch
to the Supreme Court and deregulation, when he told The Hill on Tuesday,
“by any objective standard it’s been one heck of a good year for us.”

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)

Murkowski, a longtime advocate for energy drilling rights in her home
state, got a victory with this bill. The legislation opens up the Arctic
National Wildlife Refuge for limited drilling.

While such a move is fervently opposed by environmentalists, Murkowski
insisted during a Senate floor speech on Tuesday that any new efforts
would be conducted “with a care and concern for the environment.”

Murkowski also argues that the change will create significant new wealth
in her home state.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and chief economic adviser to President
Trump, Gary Cohn

Mnuchin and Cohn were the two members of the administration most closely
associated with this effort. As such, it is a validation for both.

During the summer, there were persistent media reports that Cohn wanted to
quit the White House after Trump’s deeply controversial remarks about
white supremacist violence in Charlottesville. Va., but was persuaded to
stay on to try to see the tax push through.

To that extent at least, his mission has been accomplished. And on
Wednesday, Cohn insisted, “I’m staying” at the White House.



Losers

Democrats

The opposition party could yet have the last laugh, if the tax measure
remains as unpopular as polls suggest.

But the primary goal of any opposition is to prevent things that it
regards as harmful from getting done. To that extent, the Democrats failed
here, in part because — despite its apparent unpopularity — the effort to
derail the GOP tax plan did not attract such visceral or vocal opposition
as the push to get rid of the ACA.

The Democrats can fairly counter that they simply don’t have the votes to
stop Republican measures unless some in the GOP cross the aisle. But they
were able to persuade three senators to do just that on health care, and
failed to do so this time.

Former President Obama

The ACA is Obama’s signature achievement and it survived the full-frontal
assault earlier this year.

But it will be seriously undermined by the passage of tax reform, since
the legislation does away with the mandate that is so central to the ACA’s
funding.

The measure may save the government money, since it will have fewer
people’s health care to subsidize, but by some estimates 13 million more
people could end up without health coverage. That will also raise premiums
overall, and raise the risk of ObamaCare facing the dreaded “death
spiral.”

It’s entirely possible that the worst projections could prove overdone.
But this is a big blow.

Deficit hawks

The GOP’s purported aversion to increasing the deficit — a clarion call
during Obama’s eight years in office — was oddly muted with Trump in the
White House.

Even if the individual tax cuts in the legislation are not renewed — and
Ryan, among others, has suggested they will be— the bill will add around
$1.4 trillion to the deficit over a decade.

Republicans say the bill will spark enough growth to bring down that cost
— but, by most estimates, the best possible outcome is a deficit increase
of around $1 trillion. If the personal tax cuts are made permanent, it
could spiral to double that amount.

Blue-state Republicans

A dozen Republicans bucked the party line on what they thought was the
final House vote on the bill — a revote had to be taken later for
procedural reasons — and there is no secret about why.

The lawmakers in question were all from New York, New Jersey or
California, three of the states that will likely be hit hardest by the
capping of deductions for state and local taxes at $10,000.

Rep. Pete King (R-N.Y.), one of those "no" votes, said last month that an
earlier version of the plan would mean that hard-working people “get
screwed.”

Republicans from all of the three states will have some explaining to do
to their constituents, regardless of how they personally voted.

Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.)

Corker, who has emerged as a strident critic of the president in recent
months, surprised many people on Capitol Hill when he announced he would
support the bill. Corker had voted against a previous version because of
concern that it would add substantially to the deficit. He had pushed,
unsuccessfully, for revenue-raising measures to be added. He had told
Chuck Todd on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he was not going to be “OK with”
any plan “adding one penny to the deficit.”

Corker’s late conversion to the bill spurred accusations — which he
adamantly denies — that he had been bought off by a late change that would
make it easier for real estate interests to take advantage of lower “pass-
through” tax rates. Corker told The New York Times that the accusation was
“disheartening,” adding, “There’s nothing to buy me off with.”

Still, Corker’s late switch undercut the idea of him as a dissenting voice
of principle.

The difficulty was deepened by a strange and contentious interview with
CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Tuesday. Corker sardonically praised Blitzer for
“having a great time with this interview” when the CNN anchor pressed him
on the reversal of his position. “It’s your responsibility to answer these
questions,” Blitzer shot back.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine)

Collins won some amendments on the tax bill preserving certain breaks, but
the bigger issue for her was the promise of action to stabilize the
Affordable Care Act.

Pence and McConnell promised Collins that they would include the ObamaCare
measures in a spending bill to be passed by Congress before the new year,
but on Thursday it became clear that wouldn’t happen.

As a result, Collins ended up backing the tax bill on a promise that, at
least so far, hasn’t been delivered by her party’s leaders. It’s also a
bill that repeals ObamaCare’s individual mandate, a fact that makes worse
the failure of Collins to win funds meant to stabilize premiums.

Collins on Thursday said she wasn’t worried, and despite strong opposition
to the ObamaCare language among House conservatives, it’s possible her
demands will be met in January when Congress again must vote to fund the
government.

In a joint statement with Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), she said that
she had asked McConnell to hold off on trying to move the ObamaCare-
related bill this week because it has “become clear that Congress will
only be able to pass another short-term extension to prevent a government
shutdown and to continue a few essential programs.”

That Collins is set to leave the Senate for Christmas without her promised
gifts means she is a loser for now on the tax bill.

If the promises are kept in January, however, she’d be a winner in the
end.


--
Donald J. Trump, 304 electoral votes to 227, defeated compulsive liar in
denial Hillary Rodham Clinton on December 19th, 2016. The clown car
parade of the democrat party has run out of gas.

Congratulations President Trump. Thank you for ending the disaster of the
Obama presidency.

Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp.

ObamaCare is a total 100% failure and no lie that can be put forth by its
supporters can dispute that.

Obama jobs, the result of ObamaCare. 12-15 working hours a week at minimum
wage, no benefits and the primary revenue stream for ObamaCare. It can't
be funded with money people don't have, yet liberals lie about how great
it is.

Obama increased total debt from $10 trillion to $20 trillion in the eight
years he was in office, and sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood queer
liberal democrat donors.