The Official Labour Target List - 1997 General Election
David Boothroyd
[Please be careful with followups. Only retain uk.politics.electoral if
it is DIRECTLY RELEVANT to what you are adding]
The latest issue of the Labour Party's members magazine, 'New Labour New
Britain', contains on the back cover enough detail to construct the
full list of the 90 seats selected by the Labour Party in early 1995 as
Target seats for the 1997 election.
These seats were selected by David Gardner, then the Local Government
Officer of the Labour Party who masterminded the Party's successful
Boundaries review team. David Gardner reported to the PLP on 5th April
1995 that 14 seats with current Conservative MPs would have Labour
majorities on the new boundaries, and these together with the 55 most
marginal seats (this being the number required to win a majority) and
a 'comfort zone' of about 20 extra seats were being designated as
targets - 90 in all.
Evidently it has been decided not to add any more 'in light of the
forthcoming [1995] local elections' as was speculated in April 1995;
and the Labour Party must have taken a risk by publishing enough
details to reconstruct the list, which was explicitly ruled out 16
months ago.
There are some surprises on the list. Aberdeen North (Lab notional
majority 11.3%) is there, presumably because of worries over North
East Scotland's prosperity. The old Aberdeen North had the largest
swing to the Conservatives in 1992 that was not caused by clearly
exceptional factors. Bolton North East (sitting Conservative MP defected
to the Liberal Democrats, Lab notional majority 5.4%) is absent.
Battersea (C majority 9.1%) has presumably been written off to the
yuppified Wandsworth Tories, but The Wrekin (C notional majority 15.9%)
is deemed winnable. One surprise is Halifax (Lab majority 0.8%) is on
the list, presumably because it swung to the Conservatives in 1992.
Halifax MP Alice Mahon reportedly (Gay Times) resented her inclusion
on the OutRage! Queer The Vote list of marginals, despite her impeccable
record of supporting gay rights.
(see http://www.outrage.cygnet.co.uk/qtvote.htm)
Other seats narrowly gained by Labour in 1992, such as Rossendale and
Darwen, Ipswich and Cambridge, are evidently considered safe enough to
leave alone now. Coventry South is the only notional Conservative seat
not on the list because it is a surefire Labour seat - it is only
notionally Conservative because of the split in the Labour vote caused
by Dave Nellist's candidature in 1992.
Labour seem confident of defending Birmingham Yardley from a further
Liberal Democrat advance, but not confident of gaining North Southwark
and Bermondsey. There are only two targets from the Liberal Democrats -
the four-way marginal in Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber, and Rochdale
which is made that little bit easier by boundary changes). The latter's
next door neighbour Oldham East and Saddleworth, the heir to the byelection
seat of Littleborough and Saddleworth where there was a bitter battle
between the two parties in summer 1995, is also targetted with a sitting
Liberal Democrat MP, but a notional Conservative majority.
Only two Cabinet Ministers need be troubled by being on Labour's list -
Michael Forsyth, the Scottish Secretary with a very slim majority to
defend in Stirling, and Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind in Edinburgh
Pentlands. All but one Welsh Conservative seat is on the list, saying
a lot more about Conservative prospects in the Principality than about
Labour's tactics.
LONDON - BOROUGHS
Bexley and Greenwich, Eltham
Cities of London and Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea, Regent's
Park and Kensington North*
Croydon, Croydon North**
Enfield, Edmonton
Hillingdon, Hayes and Harlington
Hounslow, Brentford and Isleworth
Merton, Mitcham and Morden
Redbridge and Waltham Forest, Ilford South**
ENGLAND - BOROUGHS
Basildon
Batley and Spen
Bedford
Birmingham, Edgbaston
Birmingham, Hall Green
Blackpool, North and Fleetwood
Blackpool, South
Brighton, Pavilion
Bury, North
Bury, South
Crawley
Derby, North
Dudley, South* **
Exeter
Gloucester
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Halifax*
Leeds, North East
Lincoln*
Luton, North
Luton, South
Milton Keynes, South West
Northampton, North
Norwich, North
Peterborough
Plymouth, Sutton
Redditch
Slough*
Southampton, Test*
Stockton, South
Stourbridge
Tynemouth
Warrington, South*
Wolverhampton, South West
Worcester
ENGLAND - COUNTIES
Avon, Kingswood**
Cheshire, City of Chester
Cleveland, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Cornwall, Falmouth and Camborne
Derbyshire, Amber Valley
Derbyshire, Erewash
Derbyshire, High Peak
Derbyshire, South Derbyshire
Essex, Harlow
Gloucestershire, Forest of Dean*
Greater Manchester, Bolton West
Greater Manchester, Oldham East and Saddleworth
Greater Manchester, Rochdale***
Hertfordshire, Stevenage
Hertfordshire, Welwyn Hatfield
Humberside, Cleethorpes
Kent, Dover
Kent, Gravesham
Lancashire, Chorley
Leicestershire, Loughborough
Leicestershire, North West Leicestershire
Norfolk, Great Yarmouth
Northamptonshire, Corby
Shropshire, The Wrekin
Staffordshire, Burton
Staffordshire, Staffordshire Moorlands*
Staffordshire, Tamworth**
Suffolk, Waveney
West Yorkshire, Calder Valley
West Yorkshire, Colne Valley
West Yorkshire, Elmet
West Yorkshire, Keighley
Wiltshire, North Swindon*
WALES - BOROUGH
Cardiff, North
WALES - COUNTIES
Clwyd, Vale of Clwyd
Dyfed, Preseli Pembrokeshire**
Gwent, Monmouth
Gwynedd, Conwy
Powys, Brecon and Radnor
South Glamorgan, Vale of Glamorgan
SCOTLAND - BURGHS
Aberdeen, North* **
Aberdeen, South
Edinburgh, Pentlands
SCOTLAND - COUNTIES
Central and Tayside, Stirling
Dumfries and Galloway, Dumfries
Highland, Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber***
Strathclyde, Ayr*
* - Notional Labour seat, Rallings and Thrasher
** - Sitting Labour MP for base seat, not necessarily the candidate
in the new seat
*** - Targetted from Liberal Democrats
--
\/ David Boothroyd-Psephologist, Libertarian socialist.Custodi Civitatem Domine
British Elections and Politics at http://www.qmw.ac.uk/~laws/election/home.html
I wish I was in North Dakota. Next General Election must be before 22nd May '97
The House of Commons now : C 324, Lab 271, L Dem 26, UU 9, PC 4, SDLP 4, SNP 4,
UDUP 3, Ind UU 1, Spkrs 4, Vac 1. Government majority = 2. Telephone Tate 6125.
M J Drew
David Boothroyd (da...@election.demon.co.uk) wrote:
:
: [Please be careful with followups. Only retain uk.politics.electoral if
:
<snip>
: ENGLAND - BOROUGHS
:
: Basildon
: Batley and Spen
: Bedford
: Birmingham, Edgbaston
: Birmingham, Hall Green
: Blackpool, North and Fleetwood
: Blackpool, South
: Brighton, Pavilion
: Bury, North
: Bury, South
: Crawley
: ENGLAND - COUNTIES
:
: Avon, Kingswood**
<snip>
What no Bristol Northwest. Tory majority of 37 and notional Labour
majority (due to very favourable boundary changes) of over 3,000.?
: * - Notional Labour seat, Rallings and Thrasher
: ** - Sitting Labour MP for base seat, not necessarily the candidate
: in the new seat
: *** - Targetted from Liberal Democrats
:
: --
: \/ David Boothroyd-Psephologist, Libertarian socialist.Custodi Civitatem Domine
: British Elections and Politics at http://www.qmw.ac.uk/~laws/election/home.html
: I wish I was in North Dakota. Next General Election must be before 22nd May '97
: The House of Commons now : C 324, Lab 271, L Dem 26, UU 9, PC 4, SDLP 4, SNP 4,
: UDUP 3, Ind UU 1, Spkrs 4, Vac 1. Government majority = 2. Telephone Tate 6125.
--
Mike Drew
South Gloucestershire Unitary Council:Lab 31, Lib Dem 30, Con 8, Ind 1
Yate Town Council: Lab 1, Lib Dem 20
Northavon Constituency S. Glos Councillors (Lab 2, Lib Dem 25, Con 4)
John Kovacs
David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>The latest issue of the Labour Party's members magazine, 'New Labour New
>Britain', contains on the back cover enough detail to construct the
>full list of the 90 seats selected by the Labour Party in early 1995 as
>Target seats for the 1997 election.
>
>These seats were selected by David Gardner, then the Local Government
>Officer of the Labour Party who masterminded the Party's successful
>Boundaries review team. David Gardner reported to the PLP on 5th April
>1995 that 14 seats with current Conservative MPs would have Labour
>majorities on the new boundaries, and these together with the 55 most
>marginal seats (this being the number required to win a majority) and
>a 'comfort zone' of about 20 extra seats were being designated as
>targets - 90 in all.
<snip>
Thanks for posting this interesting information.
One question I have is about the inclusion of the following
constituencies:
>ENGLAND - BOROUGHS
>Luton, North
>Luton, South
Luton South is obviously being targetted because Graham Bright had a
small majority in 1992 - 799 votes (1.3%) over Labour.
But what could the reasoning be behind Luton North's inclusion on the
list? Here, John Carlisle had a majority of 13,094 (20.7%) in the last
General Election. Are there any special local factors that have led to
this seat being targetted? Or is it merely convenient because the other
Luton constituency is a target seat?
Any ideas would be welcome.
John
Matthew Huntbach
David Boothroyd (da...@election.demon.co.uk) wrote:
...
: Blackpool, South
: Brighton, Pavilion
: Bury, North
...
Why Brighton Pavilion, but not Brighton Kemp Town? The latter has always been
the most marginal Sussex constituency, with Andrew Bowden forced to be the
only Sussex MP who had to maintain a reasonable constituency record in order
to be sure of hanging on (none of the others could give a toss for their
constituents, as they've all assumed they'll always be elected).
Matthew Huntbach
Stephen Goddard
Wot, no Liverpool, Wavertree? Presumably this is because Labour think
it's a foregone conclusion (i.e. safe for them), not because they think they
can't possibly win it?
Steve.
David Boothroyd
In article <557jif$9...@yama.mcc.ac.uk>, John Kovacs writes:
> David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
> >The latest issue of the Labour Party's members magazine, 'New Labour New
> >Britain', contains on the back cover enough detail to construct the
> >full list of the 90 seats selected by the Labour Party in early 1995 as
> >Target seats for the 1997 election.
>
> Thanks for posting this interesting information.
>
> One question I have is about the inclusion of the following
> constituencies:
>
> >ENGLAND - BOROUGHS
>
> >Luton, North
> >Luton, South
>
> Luton South is obviously being targetted because Graham Bright had a
> small majority in 1992 - 799 votes (1.3%) over Labour.
>
> But what could the reasoning be behind Luton North's inclusion on the
> list? Here, John Carlisle had a majority of 13,094 (20.7%) in the last
> General Election. Are there any special local factors that have led to
> this seat being targetted? Or is it merely convenient because the other
> Luton constituency is a target seat?
Theere have been boundary changes in Luton, North (Luton, South has not
been changed significantly). The notional 1992 election on the new
boundaries in Luton, North is 14.0%, so it would fall on a 7% swing.
David Boothroyd
Not on the new boundaries. Now, Brighton Kemptown (the Boundary Commission
hasn't noticed that the locals write it as two words) has a Conservative
majority of 20.2%, since it extends down the coast to Peacehaven. Labour now
consider it out of reach (10% swings not common). Brighton, Pavilion has a
Conservative majority of 5.1% and is very much within reach.
Notional figures, of course.
David Boothroyd
In article <E036q...@fsa.bris.ac.uk>, M J Drew writes:
>
> What no Bristol Northwest. Tory majority of 37 and notional Labour
> majority (due to very favourable boundary changes) of over 3,000.?
The new Bristol, North West has a Labour majority of 6.5% and presumably
is counted as a certain win - certain enough to concentrate Bristol
Labour attention on Kingswood (Conservative majority 5.2%).
John
David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>- certain enough to concentrate Bristol
>Labour attention on Kingswood (Conservative majority 5.2%).
Are you sure that Kingswood is not already Labour (current MP Roger
Berry)?
--
Will (guest of OPOMAN)
John
John
David Boothroyd
In article <Pine.OSF.3.91.96103...@sable.ox.ac.uk>, Stephen
The notional 1992 figures have it going Labour by 6.6%, but with loss of
Liberal Democrat incumbency Labour should take some of the Lib Dem vote
back (and some will return to the Conservatives). There will also be a
return of most of the 1992 Terry Fields vote to Labour.
It's possible that Liverpool Mossley Hill would have been gained by Labour
anyway if there hadn't been any boundary changes.
M J Drew
John (opo...@netcomuk.co.uk) wrote:
: David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
:
: >- certain enough to concentrate Bristol
: >Labour attention on Kingswood (Conservative majority 5.2%).
:
: Are you sure that Kingswood is not already Labour (current MP Roger
: Berry)?
It is Labour on the 92 boundaries but is notionally Tory on the new
boundaries. It 25% of the old Kingswood goes to Bristol East and it 26.6%
of the new Kingswood comes from the old Wansdyke constituency.
: --
: Will (guest of OPOMAN)
:
Iain Bowen
In article <55dn3n$1...@morgana.netcom.net.uk>,
John <opo...@netcomuk.co.uk> wrote:
>David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>
>>- certain enough to concentrate Bristol
>>Labour attention on Kingswood (Conservative majority 5.2%).
>
>Are you sure that Kingswood is not already Labour (current MP Roger
>Berry)?
>
"Old" Kingswood is, "New" Kingswood isn't. There have been a set of fairly
major boundary changes and some of the new seats at the next election will
have the same name but different notional ownerships - Kingswood is one of
these with a Conservative majority of 5.2%.
--
\/ Iain Bowen is ala...@harlech.demon.co.uk. Red Ribbon, Blue Ribbon
"In your dreams whatever they be, dream a little dream of me"
Dull Web Page: http://www.harlech.demon.co.uk\ PGP Public Key on request
UK-VOTING web pages: http://www.harlech.demon.co.uk\ukvoting.htm
David Boothroyd
In article <55dn1r$1...@morgana.netcom.net.uk>, John writes:
> David Boothroyd <da...@election.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> >- certain enough to concentrate Bristol Labour attention on Kingswood
> >- (Conservative majority 5.2%).
>
> Are you sure that Kingswood is not already Labour (current MP Roger
> Berry)?
Roger Berry was elected on the old boundaries in 1992. The boundary
changes have removed two Labour wards (St. George East and St. George West)
and added some rural Conservative territory. The effect is to create a
seat with a notional Conservative majority.
Brian Jarvis jnr
David Boothroyd (da...@election.demon.co.uk) wrote:
:
: [Please be careful with followups. Only retain uk.politics.electoral if
The boundary changes in Rochdale should not harm the Lib Dem's. Two wards
have been taken out (Castleton, which is marginal and NordenW/Bamford which
is Tory) and two wards have been added from Lttleborough and Saddleworth
(Littlebourgh (now LD and Wardle which is still Tory). With the new voters
coming from a LD/Tory marginal, they offer little hope for the Labour Party.
Brian
: next door neighbour Oldham East and Saddleworth, the heir to the byelection
: seat of Littleborough and Saddleworth where there was a bitter battle
: between the two parties in summer 1995, is also targetted with a sitting
: Liberal Democrat MP, but a notional Conservative majority.
:
: Only two Cabinet Ministers need be troubled by being on Labour's list -
: Michael Forsyth, the Scottish Secretary with a very slim majority to
: defend in Stirling, and Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind in Edinburgh
: Pentlands.
Malcolm Rifkind should hold on next time. Even in the disasterous elections
of 1995, The Torys still held on to most of their seats within the
Edingbourgh Pentlands constituency. Colinton, Fairmilehead, Currie and
Balerno all remained in the Tory fold.
Brian
:
Why are so many Labour seats and notional Labour seats on the target list ?
Are they that unsure about their success at the next General Election ?
Brian
: --
: \/ David Boothroyd-Psephologist, Libertarian socialist.Custodi Civitatem Domine
: British Elections and Politics at http://www.qmw.ac.uk/~laws/election/home.html
: I wish I was in North Dakota. Next General Election must be before 22nd May '97
: The House of Commons now : C 324, Lab 271, L Dem 26, UU 9, PC 4, SDLP 4, SNP 4,
: UDUP 3, Ind UU 1, Spkrs 4, Vac 1. Government majority = 2. Telephone Tate 6125.
--
I'm Brian, the little elf.
David Boothroyd
In article <569vb6$q...@gerry.cc.keele.ac.uk>, Brian Jarvis jnr writes:
> David Boothroyd (da...@election.demon.co.uk) wrote:
> :
> : Labour seem confident of defending Birmingham Yardley from a further
> : Liberal Democrat advance, but not confident of gaining North Southwark
> : and Bermondsey. There are only two targets from the Liberal Democrats -
> : the four-way marginal in Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber, and Rochdale
> : which is made that little bit easier by boundary changes).
>
> The boundary changes in Rochdale should not harm the Lib Dem's. Two wards
> have been taken out (Castleton, which is marginal and NordenW/Bamford which
> is Tory) and two wards have been added from Lttleborough and Saddleworth
> (Littlebourgh (now LD and Wardle which is still Tory). With the new voters
> coming from a LD/Tory marginal, they offer little hope for the Labour Party.
Not true. The notional Liberal Democrat majority over Labour in the new
seat is a massive 36 votes. Some analyses have put the seat as notional
Labour.
> Why are so many Labour seats and notional Labour seats on the target list ?
> Are they that unsure about their success at the next General Election ?
The point for Labour is incumbency. All but one of the Labour seats on the
list are Conservative held at the moment, but with notional Labour majorities
on new boundaries. There is only one current Labour seat with no boundary
changes on the list, and the identification of this seat is left as an
exercise for the reader (though it's fairly easy because I told you which
one it was).
--
\/ David Boothroyd - Psephologist, Libertarian socialist. Millbank on 28/11/96.
British Elections and Politics at http://www.qmw.ac.uk/~laws/election/home.html
I wish I was in North Dakota. Next General Election must be before 22nd May '97
The House of Commons now : C 323, Lab 271, L Dem 26, UU 9, PC 4, SDLP 4, SNP 4,
UDUP 3, Ind UU 1, Spkrs 4, Vac 2. Government majority = 1. Telephone Tate 6125.