Perhaps some actual users should chime in here, but from my perspective, probably the best way is to have a "pre-connect" script (see
Using Scripts) in you
.tblk configuration. If it exits with a non-zero status, the connection will be considered to have failed.
Make sure not to have "Keep Connected" checked on the "Advanced" settings window, otherwise Tunnelblick will see the failure and retry. (The corresponding preference name is AAA-keepConnected where AAA is the name of the configuration.)