Watchmen movie acceptance - Speculation

[sh...@onceuponageek.com]

I'm sort of hijacking Cary's thread on Nick Fury to address his comments on Watchmen.  Here is what I think will happen with Watchmen the movie...

 

I think geeks everywhere will praise this movie.  I think the general American public either won't care and won't see it, or won't "get it" when the do watch it.  With all the marketing and merchandising, I'm afraid the general public is expecting the next Batman or Spider-Man.  As we all know, it certainly won't be that.  Also, I think the general public will struggle to reconcile the spandex outfits with the heavy subject matter.

 

I'm expecting box office sales similar to Daredevil.

 

With all that said, I hope I'm wrong.  I hope this movie is a HUGE success, but my gut tells me it won't be.

 

The Irredeemable Shag

http://firestormfan.com

http://onceuponageek.com

 

 

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [The Unique Geek] Samuel Jackson signs to play Nick Fury
From: Cary Preston <cwpr...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, February 26, 2009 8:32 am
To: Unique Geek Google Group <theuni...@googlegroups.com>


In nine upcoming films:

http://www.aintitcool.com/node/40241

I'm guessing these aren't movies featuring his character, just
appearances in movies (like in Iron Man). Still, good news; I'd hate
to see that character turned over to someone else.

In other news, Watchmen is at 92% now. I'm swimming in rabid
anticipation of both the movie and our resident naysayer's trashing of
it.

[Cary Preston]

Hopefully not. While there's been a mass geek-gasm over the early
showings of the film, some of the early hype has come from everyday
movie critics. The only negative review so far was from a tabloid
(since when does News of the World review movies?) so I've discounted
that. 300 benefited from having next to no expectations- no one of
note outside of comicsdom had ever heard of it.
As for the heavy subject matter, the last Batman movie had some pretty
dark themes to it and benefited from it. I really don't think it's a
liability- if anything it insures that the film is viewed differently
than your standard popcorn superhero flick (Fantastic Four, Superman,
etc).

[Rave...@aol.com]

Caw,

 

Didn't Daredevil make a lot of money?  Like over $100 million?  I think they'll be very happy with that for a March movie.  Daredevil was the reason for Ghost Rider and stuff, like they were like, "comics are hot!  let's crank 'em out" and not "Spider-Man was good, let's make more good movies,"

 

The Watchmen graphic novel is selling through the roof, like crazy sales, and it's hard to think that it's all the same people who bought it twenty years ago, it's new people who have heard it makes you smart, and want to see what the hype is about.  They will probably see the movie. 

 

I think the movie looks like shit, so I want it to fail, but it's looking like it wont.  So, to follow up on Shag's "thesis" it will probably make Daredevil money.  Don't think you meant that as a positive, but there you go.

It will also KILL on DVD, because it will have extras people care about (the animated boat sequence, the "real" ending with the squid, etc.)

 

Hate the costumes, hate the way they make NiteOwl yell, hate Dr. Manhattan as Jar Jar Binks, hate the slow motion, but...all signs point to success.  Weird to put it out in March, the graveyard of films.

 

I will say, that though there is buzz, there is no real catchphrase or moment in the trailer people are quoting or talking about.  Folks were yelling, "THIS IS SPARTA!" for weeks before the movie. 

 

I think they are hoping for a carryover audience from Dark Knight.

 

We could have a box office contest on the site, maybe?  See who guesses closest for opening weekend and overall finish?

 

 

 

---

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[Holly Elliott]

Yeah, about “normals” buying and reading the graphic novel.  There was a regular kid (not one of the geeky ones) in one of the classes I teach reading it, and I see regular kids reading it all over the place on campus.  So, yeah, they seem really into it.  I think it will do well, especially as it has nothing else to compete with, really.  That may have been the idea for the March release—nothing else exciting is out!

 

Holly

[Erika]

I think the biggest problem is that the average moviegoer (who hasn't
read the novel) may not understand what it is or what it's about. But
given all the hype around it, the curiosity factor might be enough to
draw people in. We'll find out soon enough.

[Cary Preston]

Raven was right- Daredevil grossed $179,179,718 worldwide, over $100
million domestically. That's eye popping for such a sub-par movie.

[Shag]

I think Daredevil is still a good example. It grossed $179 million, $101 of
which was profit. That's pretty good. However, it certainly didn't do
nearly as well as other comic book properties...

Dark Knight - $997 million gross; $812 million profit
Spider-Man 3 - $890 million gross; $632 million profit
Spider-Man - $821 million gross; $682 million profit
Spider-Man 2 - $783 million gross; $583 million profit
Iron Man - $571 million gross; $431 million profit
Fantastic Four - $330 million gross; $230 million profit

Even Ghost Rider made $220 million and that was CRAP!

Hellboy II is an interesting example. I think it's fair to say that Hellboy
II had more advertising/merchandise out there than Watchmen does right now.

Hellboy II - $99 million gross; $14 million profit margin

So between the Daredevil and Hellboy II examples, I think Watchmen will be
lucky to make the same $179 million that Daredevil did. Also, rumor is that
Watchmen cost over $100 million to make. And how much will Warner Brothers
have to pay Fox when it's all said and done?

Here is a link for some more data on Superhero movie revenues.
http://max-bro.net/2008/09/09/what-are-the-most-profitable-superhero-movie-f
ranchises/

The Irredeemable Shag
http://onceuponageek.com

-----Original Message-----
From: theuni...@googlegroups.com [mailto:theuni...@googlegroups.com]
On Behalf Of Cary Preston
Sent: Thursday, February 26, 2009 3:42 PM
To: theuni...@googlegroups.com
Subject: [The Unique Geek] Re: Watchmen movie acceptance - Speculation

[rave...@aol.com]

So...it's a bad example, since it had a much lower budget and more potential for profit.  Watchmen may make the same box office numbers as Daredevil, but it won't make as high a profit.  I'm glad thinking about Daredevil helped you find some research, but you must now concede it is against your point!  You're as blind as old Matt Murdock himself!

It's like saying traffic cones are like oranges.  They're both similar in color, but there's no vitamin c in a pylon, shag!  There's no vitamin c in a pylon!

Hellboy II is probably a better example.  Like, there's a movie that did fair to middlin based on a tiny core fanbase.  Mom and dad didn't come out to see it.  In your link-guy's analysis, it was only made due to the fierce will of the director, but he doesn't mention the truth!  It was made because Pan's Labyrinth was so huge.  It was almost advertised as a sequel to PL more than Hellboy.

All of these movies that did well had some kind of popular momentum leading up to them, mostly hot Spider-Man movies.  300 had a GREAT marketing campaign (and looked like nothing else). Those commercials and posters were everywhere. Some of the movies have star power and legs, like Iron Man's big deal was that it stuck around.  It had week after week of big box because of good word of mouth.  It was fun and cool.  Most of these movies had big openings and dropped.
 
What does Watchmen have going for it?  There's no star, there's no star dying just before the movie (what luck that was!), there's no character anyone's heard of, there's no catch-phrase in the marketing campaign, there's no unique look.  The preview is just ok.  Kind of confusing and looks like a "gritty" music video.

It's "momentum" comes from nerds hailing it as the work that gives comics "literary merit," and, WB hopes, from Dark Knight doing so well.  But I don't think the Batman crowd are into it.  Like, moms and dads and high school kids haven't been dressing up as Rorshach for Halloween for seventy years.

The GN is selling huge, and that is hard to discount, but I think many of the people who bought the GN do not like it and don't see what the big deal is.   I think the movie will confuse and disappoint and won't have legs or word of mouth.  The open will be decent, $45?  Less?  and then it will drop off.  Maybe it will do better overseas, since they are into "art" over there, but ma and pa Olive Garden are going to dislike it.  I think the enthusiasm of comics people is driving normals away!

Maybe I am not taking the power of Wil Wheaton's killer review into account.

So, Shag and I are of the same opinion, he just chose a weak example at first.


-----Original Message-----From: Shag <sh...@onceuponageek.com>

To: theuni...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thu, 26 Feb 2009 9:06 pm

[Jason Service]

I kind of agree with Raven here. I think the movie will have a great opening, maybe closer to $60M but it will then die off quickly. The only legs it will have is the nerdcore/geekcore getting seconds and thirds, but even then, this will deteriorate. I see HUGE bank in the DVD release and they will do the typical and release like 10 versions over the next 10 years so just be ready to buy it again. and again. and again.