On Wed, 13 Jul 2016 07:35:41 -0700 (PDT), bigdog wrote:
>On Monday, July 11, 2016 at 10:12:21 PM UTC-4, Governor Swill wrote:
>As Jesse Ventura astutely pointed out, we have just two
>significant parties in this country. That's just one more than they
>had in the Soviet Union.
Looked at another way, it's *twice as many* as the USSR had. :) But
yes, you are quite right.
>> That's because they see it as a horse race and hope to be on the
>> winning side so they can crow about it the day after the election.
>> They don't understand that the vote is our VOICE. If our VOICE
>> shouts, "I don't like any of the choices" loudly enough, the choices
>> might get better.
>I always bristle when I hear people complain about third party
>candidates taking votes away from one or the other major party
>candidate. This happens on the left and the right. You can't take
>something away from someone who didn't own it in the first place. My
>vote belongs to me, not any candidate. I cast itr for whom I choose.
And if you choose the third party candidate who cannot possibly win
instead of your second choice, you have deprived that second choice of
your vote.
>I don't owe it to anybody. Some on this board have chastised me for
>choosing to vote for Gary Johnson instead of Trump. They tell me a
>vote for Johnson is a vote for Hillary. No it isn't. A vote for
>Hillary is a vote for Hillary. By giving it to neither major party
>candidate I am playing no favorites. If they want to complain, they
>should complain about their primary voters who chose to nominate
>a dick.
A small dick. I hate to say it but after over forty years of voting
across party lines, in 2012 I voted my first straight party ticket in
support of Obama, who I actually liked. But now, I have to do it
again. The more I listen to conservatives, the more I see of their
real political positions, the more I'm driven away from my original
party of choice.
>> Not Cruz. Too religious.
>>
>As a firm believer in separation of church and state,
>I too was turned off by that aspect of Cruz but I was
>all in with him on reducing government spending so
>I would have overlooked that.
You drank his koolaid too? Except on certain social issues,
Republicans haven't been conservative since Jan 20, 1981. Reagan
campaigned on smaller government, low taxes and balanced budgets but
it was all a sham.
"“No amount of budget reductions, even if they had been politically
palatable, could have balanced California’s budget in 1967. The
cornerstone of Governor Reagan’s economic program was not the
ballyhooed budget reductions but a sweeping tax package four times
larger than the previous record California tax increase obtained by
Governor Brown in 1959. Reagan’s proposal had the distinction of being
the largest tax hike ever proposed by any governor in the history of
the United States.”[1]"
<
http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/bruce-bartlett/2154/reagans-forgotten-tax-record>
>I think legal precedence
>would have prevented him from enacting a pro-Christianity agenda.
I wasn't worried about a Christian Agenda, I was worried about
Christian judgmentalism affecting his political philosophy and the
Supreme Court appointments he would try to make.
>You are correct. I thought he had lost it in the 1982 midterm
>but I checked and it was in the 1986 midterm that happened.
>
>Reagan never had a Republican House and that is where spending bills originate.
Um, per the Constitution, *tax* bills must originate in the House.
Spending can originate from House, Senate or, as is most often the
case, the Executive.
>> > with control of both houses for 4 of his eight years couldn't
>> >push SS privatization through.
>>
>> The voters soundly rejected it. And three years after Bush's
>> "Privatization Tour" ended, they were proved right. Wall Street
>> tanked and nearly took the whole planet with it.
>>
>I think the voters never understood it.
They understood it right enough.
>The proposals I saw would
>have allowed people to choose if they wanted a portion of the
>their SS funds invested in the market.
Which tanked three years later.
>Anyone who didn't choose to
>could have stayed with the system as it was. Democrats
>convinced them that privatization meant gambling
> everyone's trust fund in the market. That wasn't
>the case at all.
Doesn't matter whether it was 40% or 30% or 5%. The voters were too
savvy to risk their SS funds in unstable private sector markets. SS
is what it is precisely because it's guaranteed to be there. That's a
guarantee the investment houses and markets couldn't make and three
years later, we saw why.
I have wondered if the administration saw 2008 coming and maybe, just
maybe, Bush was trying to funnel some capital into the markets to
delay the inevitable.
>The Dems are still playing that card in
>the Ohio Senate race running ads pointing out that as a Congressman
>Rob Portman supported privatization. They imply that would have meant
>gambling people's retirement in the market. Not the case at all.
It is exactly the case, but let's be specific here. People are
already gambling much, if not most, of their retirement in the
markets. SS is the one part of that future income that isn't a
gamble. You know it'll be there. Even if the Great Depression came
back and your entire investment portfolio lost 80% of its value, you'd
still have that dependable base.
THAT was what the voters feared risking, that one little bit of
guaranteed retirement income.
>> >> Republicans campaign endlessly about smaller government and balanced
>> >> budgets, but every time a Republican gets into the White House, debt
>> >> growth explodes, and Reagan grew government faster than any President
>> >> in half a century.
>> >>
>> >Again, that was the Democrat Congress at work.
>>
>> Sure, right. No matter how much power the GOP has, everything is the
>> Dems' fault.
>
>Kind of like when the Dems still blame Bush.
Like when Republicans still blame Clinton?
Different animal. The point is, a Republican President and Republican
Congresses made decisions that didn't pan out and now try to blame on
a Democrat minority they did everything in their power to minimize at
the time. Reagan added almost twice as much to the existing debt as
all other previous Presidents COMBINED. Blaming the minority party
won't work. Reagan could have vetoed any spending he wished and it's
unlikely the Dems could have overridden.
It wasn't the Dems jacking up military spending or crashing tax
revenues with massive, temporary tax cuts, it was Reagan. Did he have
to grease Dem palms with legislative concessions and spending they
wanted, of course! But the point is he only had to do that because of
the massive amounts he wanted to spend.
Why else did debt growth jump up so high when the GOP took over two
thirds of the government? Jimmy Carter was a Democrat and so were his
Congresses. One of them had a filibuster proof Senate and his
deficits and debt were nowhere near Reagan's.
And the debt kept piling up until a Democrat got back into the White
House. Then the debt growth rate slowed dramatically. Clinton put
less on the debt in 8 years than Bush 41 did in just 4. And that
doesn't even take inflation into account. Clinton put less on the
debt than Reagan did without even adjusting for inflation.
Federal taxes remained at lower rates than under Carter. Clinton also
restrained spending even as Republicans fought tooth and nail to spend
every penny they could and gut his fiscal restraint policy. Why would
they do that? Because a Democrat was keeping a Republican promise to
be fiscally responsible.
Republicans love to claim it was the GOP in Congress who cut that
spending growth but that's just an outright lie. Consider this proof:
As soon as the White House went GOP in 2001, all that massive debt
growth came rushing back with the GOP still in charge in Congress!
>> Reagan, that great, modern conservative, with the help of Republican
>> Senates for six of his eight years, grew the government payroll by 66%
>> and tripled the national debt. Unless you're willing to admit the GOP
>> is a collection of ineffectual wimps who couldn't even run a paper
>> route, you'll have to stop blaming the Dems. Then again, as long as
>> you're blaming them for all that government expansion, you might as
>> well credit them for the economic boom and the collapse of the Soviet
>> Union.
>>
>I have no problem admitting the GOP is largely a collection of
>ineffectual wimps which is why I left the GOP 20 years ago.
>The fact is money is appropriated by the House and the Senate
>and President either accept or reject what they enact.
In theory. Bills aren't passed in a vacuum and handed blind to the
Executive. In reality, they negotiate back and forth continually.
When a President is on record as stating he WILL veto such-and-such a
bill under certain conditions, Congress doesn't bother sending it to
him unless they have an override majority, or can attach something
else the President wants really, REALLY, badly to it.
>Republicans in the House and Senate aren't really interested
>in smaller government. For all their talk about limited government,
>they want to hand out goodies to buy votes and contributions
>just as much as the Dems.
Exactly. But of the four Presidents preceding Obama, the only one to
actually shrink the government was Clinton who cut the number of
federal employees by 22%. He was also the only one to cut cap gains
over the course of his Presidency.
http://reagan.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=004090
>> Iow, the buck stops here.
>>
>Reagan's priority was getting tax cuts and to get those he
>had to compromise on spending.
I'm sure he did, but not to the tune of nearly 2trillion dollars. His
defense spending alone doubled and that *was* a Reagan imperative.
http://reagan.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=004090
The revenue loss was the biggest problem with the deficits. He cut
too deep in 1981 and spent the rest of his Presidency raising taxes a
bit at a time trying to deal with it. Of course he didn't call them
"tax increases". Oh no! The White House described them as "revenue
enhancements" - as big a pile of government doublespeak as any
Democrat ever uttered.
>Perhaps is greatest lasting
>legacy was indexing tax brackets to inflation which killed
>what was effectively an automatic tax increase every year.
Which Reagan delayed for four years after its passage.
"There were 11 major tax increases during his administration. And this
doesn’t count the fact that Reagan intentionally delayed the start of
tax indexing, which was part of the 1981 tax bill, until 1985 so as to
capture a lot of anticipated bracket-creep for the Treasury. In fact,
it was the failure of inflation to come in as fast as White House
economists expected that created much of the deficit problem."
http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/bruce-bartlett/2154/reagans-forgotten-tax-record
>And Obama has doubled the debt again.
No, no he hasn't. He was handed a 12T debt and will leave behind a
20T number. Under Bush, the debt went up 123%. Under Obama, it will
come in at about a 60% increase. That's a reduction in debt growth of
roughly 50%.
>And continues the wars.
""In Tampa, the Republican argument against the president's
re-election was actually pretty simple - pretty snappy.
It went something like this: We left him a total mess.
He hasn't cleaned it up fast enough.
So fire him and put us back in." -- Bill Clinton"
Bush started those wars with no clear idea of where they were headed
or what might happen. Like the proverbial bull in a china shop, in
2006 his party got it's ass kicked ending a ten year streak of
Congressional control and he had to confront what he'd done. So he
stood there like a deer in headlights and said, "mistakes were made."
Well, DUH.
>> >> The list of Republican betrayals of their promises is even longer than
>> >> the Dems' and far more visible.
>> >>
>> >You don't need to tell me that. It's way I left them 20 years ago.
>> >George Will recently followed suit.
One of the few Republicans who wasn't a wild eyed shill for every
radical and special interest group willing to stuff a little cash into
his wallet. I left the GOP in 1992. The debt had exploded and wasn't
slowing down, the 91 recession hit me very hard and I saw the power of
the Church increase dramatically. I haven't voted for a Rep President
since though I have voted GOP for other offices.
>> It's going to be interesting to see if, after November, the GOP is a
>> regional party or a national one.
>>
>I would like to see it blown up and a new coalition party put together from the remnants.
Dramatic and emotionally satisfying, yes. But far more likely it will
split with the main wing siphoning conservative and socially
conservative Dems off into a more centrist party (resembling the
Nixon/Eisenhower GOP) leaving the Dems with the hard left and hanging
the hard right out to flap in the breeze with the Libertarians.
>> Agreed, but this year is special. Both candidates terrify pretty much
>> everybody and more than at any other time, the populace is going to
>> turn out to vote against the one they fear most.
>>
>Two bad they won't turn out to vote for someone other the the D and the R.
I'll be paying attention. There are conditions under which I'd vote
for Johnson. For example, if Trump weakens or ever trails Hillary in
my state near the end or if it appears the Senate (maybe even the
House) is going to switch parties again.
But rule #1 remains, "NEVER TRUMP".
>> The Trumpsters are hoping to keep Johnson from doing as little damage
>> as possible while the Dems are hoping libertarian minded Republicans
>> who're disenchanted with the mainstream and hate Trump and Clinton too
>> much to vote for either, will bleed votes off Trump and leave her in
>> the White House.
>>
>Polls indicate Johnson at this point is getting a significant number
>of Sanders supporters as well. Earlier this year in a LP debated
>hosted by John Stossel, Johnson went so far as to say of all the
>candidates still running in the two major parties, he found himself
>more closely aligned with Sanders. I'm betting the feeling with a lot
> of Sanders votes might prove to be mutual.
Wishful thinking. More Sanders voters have turned to Hillary than
Hillary voters had turned to Obama at this point in 2008.
>It's a long shot but I would love to see Johnson win enough
>electoral votes to deny either Clinton or Trump a majority.
>I wonder how many states he would have a realistic chance.
Zero. Ok, maybe NM if they REALLY liked his governorship there.
>I think likely places would be states that have a history of
>electing independents in statewide races. Off the top of my
>head that would be a few New England states and Minnesota.
Not enough to win EC votes. Remember, with rare exceptions, you have
to take 50%+ of the vote in a state to get that state's EC. Do you
foresee any states giving him that many votes?