On 26/03/2018 16:11, Peter Nyikos wrote:
> On Saturday, March 24, 2018 at 9:55:03 AM UTC-4, Ernest Major wrote:
>> On 21/03/2018 22:00, Peter Nyikos wrote:
>>> On Wednesday, March 21, 2018 at 10:35:04 AM UTC-4, Ernest Major wrote:
>>>> On 08/03/2018 21:42, Peter Nyikos wrote:
>>>>> Martin Harran is in the same boat. Confronted with the complete
>>>>> inability of even the best minds to figure out an evolutionary
>>>>> pathway, even a hypothetical one, that could culminate in Hox genes,
>>>>> all he can do is regurgitate a claim that this is all just an argument
>>>>> from personal incredulity.
>>>>
>>>> I haven't seen any "design" argument about HOX genes that is more than
>>>> an argument from incredulity.
>>>
>>> That may be because the ID theorists you have read arguments from are
>>> too much in sympathy with classical creationist nonsense, rather
>>> than sophisticated alternatives like that presented by a widely
>>> read agnostic:
>>>
>>> Perhaps there also, among rotting fish heads and blue,
>>> night-burning bog lights, moved the eternal mystery,
>>> the careful finger of God. The increase was not much.
>>> It was two bubbles, two thin-walled little balloons at the
>>> end of the Snout's small brain. The cerebral hemispheres
>>> had appeared.
>>> --Loren Eiseley_The Immense Journey_
>>>
>>> The idea is that evolutionary change could have been effected
>>> by judicious "creation" of mutations at key places in earth history.
>>> By that I mean mutations that are just a little like "hopeful monsters"
>>> but not so drastic as to be outside the ability of species on our
>>> level of intelligence.
>>>
>>
>> I don't know what meaning Eiseley intended - a cursory google didn't
>> turn up a copy of the source. For all I know he, like Dawkins, was
>> cursed with a gift for metaphor. For all I know he was no more a
>> creationist than Einstein.
>
> I think it is pretty well established that he was an agnostic.
> Not that it really matters. The quotation stands on its own
> merits -- an eloquent alternative to both mindless evolution
> and poofing animals into existence. The latter practically
> defines "creationist" in the way it is used by the vast
> majority in talk.origins, AFAIK. Of course that includes
> both OECs and YECs and near-YECs like Martinez who seems
> amenable to a 100 million year old earth, but not much more.
I define creationism as "the religiously motivated rejection of the
substantial proportion of the scientific consensus, especially as it
relates to biology, geology, and cosmology, or the promotion thereof".
That last clause avoids the problem of telling whether someone is a
sincere believer - it captures people who believe, people who are in it
for the money, people with think creationism is a useful instrument of
social control, and people whose motivations are a combination of those
and other motives.
The definition includes Tony Pagano's geocentrism - whether or not he
realises it (he's currently arguing against Newton's Laws of Motion) he
throws away most of physics. It includes Vedic Creationism, even though
it's very different from Abrahamic Creationism. It doesn't include the
rejection of a particular carbon date (such as that of the Turin Shroud,
becauses that's not a substantial proportion of the scientific consensus.)
I could have added "with deliberate intent" to that definition, but that
gets us back to reading people's minds. It is conceivable that someone
could accidently promote creationism from a combination of
Dunning-Kruger syndrome, reflective contrarianism, and bothsidesism - if
one is ignorant of evolutionary biology it easier to treat creationism
with more credibility that it deserves.
Eloquence doesn't entail sophistication. From the viewpoint of
philosophy of science poofing a new allele or a new gene into existence
is no different from poofing a new animal into existence.
And it may not be as far from Ray's beliefs as you think. Ray has stated
that his "created from a clay-like ground" was metaphor. Ray has claimed
that there are "no natural processes" - this would make him an
occasionalist, or possible a Manichaean occasionalist. Since he's coy
about what he thinks actually happened for all I know he could be an
occasionalist-evolutionist (everything happened as science thinks it
did, but God did it). Or if you note his inconsistency about the
existence of natural processes he could be a omphalic progressive
creationist of some form, with God created new species with the
appearance of having evolved. This could be poofing new animals into
existence, but it could be a case of poofing new embryos into existence,
so that for example, a lion gives birth to a tiger, or just changing the
genomes of embryos, by which point the difference from Eiseley is that
Ray would have happening often, and Eiseley rarely. Or it might be that
Ray has no coherent concept of creation, other than evolution is
athiestic and wrong, and trying to infer his beliefs is a fool's errand.
>
>
>> But I don't see on what criteria you identify
>> this as more sophisticated. In some senses ID is more sophisticated - it
>> says that the designer isn't necessarily God, nudge, nudge, wink, wink.
>
> Sorry, I don't indulge in "nudge, nudge, wink, wink." My ID comes
> in two very explicit forms: (1) purely naturalistic in the case of
> directed panspermia (DP) with a confidence approaching 50% in that
> hypothesis, and (2) exemplified by that quote from Eiseley with a
> confidence less than 10%. IOW, (2) a possibility, but not one
> into which I put much stock.
>
Directed panspermia, among other hypotheses, is an alternative to
spontaneous abiogenesis in situ as an origin for life on earth. But it
is not ID. Your models also seem to include directed abiogenesis ex
situ, which would fit the etymology of intelligent design, but for some
reason you deemphasise the directed abiogenesis parts of the model.
Perhaps I shouldn't complain, with my expansive definition of
creationism above, but I don't care for expansive definitions of
Intelligent Design - it refers to a particular movement, and adding
other things that fit the etymology (such as roundup resistant soya or
JCVI-syn3.0) is helpful.
>
>> But you present the interpretation that is on the cusp between theistic
>> evolutionism and progressive creationism.
>
> Yes, "theistic" evolutionism is more aptly named "neo-deistic"
> evolutionism: the attitude that God created the universe
> and then had a hands-off policy until historical Biblical
> times. ["Historical" means roughly the time of Abraham, as
> opposed to prehistorical events like whatever the Noahide flood
> actually referred to originally.]
>
> And your word "present" is very well chosen. I am laying the
> hypothesis out for consideration, without having much confidence
> in its truth. But I am passionately interested in the truth,
> and so I try to cover all reasonable bases.
Ah, but's what's reasonable? Omphalism? Occasionalism? Simulationism?
Individual or Social Solipsism?
>
>
>> You don't come out and say
>> that natural processes couldn't have produced the same mutations - the
>> creationst end of theistic evolution says that evolution could have
>> produced a biota of equivalent complexity, but God intervened to select
>> a particular path among the stochastic choices, while theistic
>> evolutionist end of progressive creationism claims that natural
>> processes are incapable of producing the observed results.
>
> I think like a scientist *qua* scientist about these things, and hence am
> in suspended judgment about them. I do not confuse the currently
> accepted methodology of science with the thinking of flesh
> and blood scientists.
>
>
>> I don't know how to describe the former (an argument from credulity? -
>> "God could have done it"), but is unfalsifiable and a religious rather
>> than a scientific position.
>
> So is something that seems to be the be-all and end-all of the
> majority of anti-ID participants:
>
> Darwin of the Gaps
>
> This is the default, one-size-fits-all, totally unfalsifiable
> naturalistic explanation for any and all biological phenomena:
>
> "Well, it's natural selection, y'know. The __________ that did/could/
> are __________ had a survival advantage over the ones that didn't/
> couldn't/weren't and so they are the ones we see today."
>
> Fortunately, you yourself have a lot more going for you than this
> analogue of "god of the gaps."
>
I think that is a false equivalence. God of the gaps refers to the
argument that we don't know how something happens, therefore God did it,
therefore God totally exists. Note that God is the conclusion.
What you disparage as "Darwin of the gaps" is that we know that
evolutionary processes exist, and we know of no reason why they couldn't
have achieved the observed results, so we provisionally infer that they
did achieve them. Occam's Razor applies. Note that no-one is using this
as an argument for the existence of natural selection - we have more
direct evidence.
You've also managed to repeat a couple of mistakes that creationists
often make. Firstly evolutionary processes are not restricted to
mutation and natural selection. The precise number of processes is open
to terminological issues - is allopolyploidy mutation or gene flow or
something else? is recombination included in mutation? is sexual
selection different from natural selection? is population isolation an
evolutionary process? Secondly it's reproductive advantage, not survival
advantage.
>
>
>> I would appeal to Occam's Razor to discount
>> it. (When I included interuniversal transfer among a list of imaginable
>> origins of life of earth you commented that was going too far, so you do
>> accept that principle that we don't need to consider all ideas
>> seriously.)
>
> I try to stay within the bounds of our current understanding
> of physics. Even the "careful finger of God" could be mimicked
> by extraterrestrials on a level of intelligence comparable
> to ours, but the possibilities are just too speculative.
>
> I tried to do the best I could in my latest reply to Öö Tiib,
> but my imaginative scenario turned out to be another case of
> a "beautiful theory killed by a brutal gang of cold facts"
> about globular clusters. I found that out over the weekend
> by reading Chapter 14 in a great book by planetary scientist
> John L. Lewis, _Worlds_Without_End.
>
>
>> The latter is in principle testable - it predicts a bias in
>> mutations - but in practice it can be made resistant to falsification by
>> making the bias vanishingly small, or by banishing it to the past (now
>> we have the pinnacle of creation it's not needed any more), but it's
>> just as much an argument from incredulity as the appeal to Hox genes as
>> evidence of design.
>
> Whereas Darwin of the Gaps is an argument from personal credulity.
>
>
>> In either case, one wonders why God didn't choose to or was unable to
>> create an evolutionary process that didn't require intervention.
>
> Because a God of that magnitude strains even the possibilities
> of a multiverse with infinitely many physical universes. I could
> never arrive at a 10% confidence -- or even a 0.01% confidence --
> in a hypothesis that rested in such a God. The various
> forms of the Ontological Argument for an infinite God are just
> too fallacious.
Cosmological Argument?
>
>
>> (Note that as a species we're probably better at producing gross changes
>> than subtle ones. For example we could knock out a plant homeobox gene
>> to produce a flower with a grossly different structure.
>
> Plants are one thing, animals are another. Scroll down to the
> bottom of the following blog, and read the last few posts,
> about the difficulties of tampering with the geomes of mice
> to give them the ability to fly with bat-like wings.
>
>
http://scienceblogs.com/tetrapodzoology/2011/03/05/visualising-protobats/
>
>
>> What we do more
>> often is move traits from one species to another - for example replacing
>> a crop 5-enolpyruvoyl-shikimate-3-phosphate synthetase with one from
>> Agrobacterium - or introducing insulin synthesis into a bacterium, or
>> extending a plant secondary metabolite chain to produce a new pigment.)
>
> Child's play compared to a mice-to-batlike-rodents change.
>
I thought that Eiseley was proposing subtle changes - small swellings in
the brain which eventually became the cerebral hemispheres. If you're
suggesting saltational change instead your "sophisticated" alternative
looks more like creationism.
>
> Remainder deleted, to be replied to later, perhaps only tomorrow.
> I have back-to-back classes to teach in less than an hour.
>
>
> Peter Nyikos
> Professor, Department of Math. -- standard disclaimer --
> U. of South Carolina at Columbia
>
http://www.math.sc.edu/~nyikos/
>
--
alias Ernest Major