On Friday, 20 January 2017 06:34:59 UTC, Don Cates wrote:
> On 2017-01-19 6:07 PM, RSNorman wrote:
> > On Thu, 19 Jan 2017 18:43:50 -0500, jillery <
69jp...@gmail.com>
> > wrote:
> >
> >> On Thu, 19 Jan 2017 15:24:09 -0600, Don Cates
> >> <cate...@hotmail.com.invalid> wrote:
> >>
> >>> On 2017-01-18 10:58 PM, RSNorman wrote:
> >>>> On Wed, 18 Jan 2017 23:22:03 -0500, jillery <
69jp...@gmail.com>
> >>>> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>> Apparently Jerry Coyne has a fetish for equines in striped pajamas.
> >>>>> This is his 4th article on the topic:
> >>>>>
> >>>>> <
https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2017/01/18/the-secret-of-zebra-stripes-solved-or-so-scientists-say/>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> <
http://tinyurl.com/hsvzpez>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Short version: stripes help keep away biting flies.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I hope this article satisfies Larry Moran's lust for disproving the
> >>>>> null hypothesis, that zebra stripes are due to drift.
> >>>>
> >>>> The biting fly hypothesis has been around for almost three years now.
> >>>> This is nothing new, although the book about it ("Zebra Stripes" by
> >>>> Tim Caro) is.
> >>>>
> >>>> My question, though, is where Larry Moran ever wrote that zebra
> >>>> stripes are due to drift. I did very recently start a thread,
> >>>> "Against adaptationism in evolution" which cited a paper that argued
> >>>> that the null hypothesis for any discussion of evolution of genomes
> >>>> should be neutral evolution or drift. I also argued that discussing
> >>>> evolution of phenotypes in living, breathing organisms was something
> >>>> quite different. Still, drift as a null hypothesis for everything can
> >>>> be very useful. It is just that I can't believe anybody, and that
> >>>> includes Larry Moran, would say seriously that fully formed, clearly
> >>>> demarcated, zebra stripes are due to drift even if some early mottled
> >>>> sort-of stripey coloration pattern was indeed due to drift.
> >>>>
> >>> Is there any convincing evidence that it is *not* due to drift?
> >>
> >>
> >> What do you think such evidence should look like?
> >>
> [piggybacking]
>
> Evidence of differential reproductive success linked to the genetically
> determined phenotype.
>
> >>
> >>> Assume
> >>> that the conclusions in the paper about the flies and stripes is true,
> >>> where is the evidence that this has an influence on reproductive
> >>> success? That step seems to be missing from most (all?) of the zebra
> >>> stripe adaptive explanations.
> >>
> >>
> >> My impression is biting flies carry parasitic diseases, suck
> >> significant fractions of animals' blood volume, and distract animals
> >> to the point they can't eat. I would be surprised if biting flies
> >> didn't also reduce reproductive success.
> >>
>
> And yet there are many other herding herbivores that inhabit the same
> environment as zebras, often adjacent to or even mingled with them that
> seem to be doing quite well. Some even have faint striping. Unless it
> can be shown that the effects you describe are particularly a problem
> for equids as opposed to these other animals, I don't find the argument
> compelling.
>
> >> The cited book is new, so my guess is you haven't read it. I haven't
> >> either, so don't you think it would be wise for neither of us to
> >> speculate about what is or isn't in it?
> >
> > Don Cates' comment is exactly when demonstrating that some
> > characteristic is adaptive is so difficult. Your comments about the
> > effect that biting flies has certainly does sound reasonable so that
> > the adaptive hypothesis has tremendous credibility. So much so that
> > this kind of "arm-waving" argument is generally accepted as "as good
> > as we can do." However your surprise or lack thereof is not the kind
> > of thing that produces definitive results.
> >
> > No, I have not read the book. But I have read Tim Caro's published
> > papers and I have noted several seemingly rather thorough descriptions
> > of the major comments in the book. Had Caro actually demonstrated
> > that striped zebras outreproduce unstriped ones over a number of
> > generations (or even over one generation) then I believe it would
> > certainly have been mentioned in those book reviews, not to mention it
> > would certainly have been a publication of major importance.
> >
> I understand that strong evidence for adaptation is very difficult to
> obtain in this case (and many others) and so some kind of proxy may be
> the best we can do. But absent knowing how biting flies affect zebra
> reproductive success, I don't think this proxy is a strong as it seems
> to some people. The idea that such a striking colouration *must* be
> adaptive has meant that the question being asked is '*why* (what
> adaptive pressure) does the zebra have stripes' rather that 'are the
> zebras' stripes adaptive'.
Down at my level:
Zebras are so strongly, and relatively uniquely
striped, that there "must" be a "reason" for it.
Presumably you could breed non-striped zebras
if they were inclined to cooperate. It seems to
be difficult to breed stripes into animals that
don't have them. So the stripe genes are
difficult to produce.
If the null hypothesis is that there isn't a
reason for zebras to have stripes, just "drift",
then it doesn't seem likely.
On the other hand, nature doesn't guarantee
that scientists can find out the reason.
Reasons may be several and complicated.
Nature makes you guess. Then you do an experiment
to tell if you guessed right.
If you can't think of a reason and prove it, then...
nature wins, you lose, I suppose.
And it seems to be not yet perfectly clear whether
this is a black animal that has white stripes, or
a white animal that has black stripes?