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‘Metrics to track progress’ seems to be the application of a measure that is meaningful (even if very difficult to really do) in engineering to science. Measuring progress in actual projects in real time is fraught with difficulty, especially with projects that have ambitious goals. Joe Kasser used to refer to the rapid progress of projects to about 80-90% complete and then seeming to take as long to get to 100%. (Actually a bit like the progress bar in Microsoft installation and file transfer indicators.) Would the project progress measure be better reported if the provider got given a budget to finish based on current expenditure and reported progress – thereby encouraging more conservative reports of progress?
But in science the goal is understanding of the world. While early work along a certain line of reasoning may appear to be converging on a good explanation of reality there are cases where continued work only seems to keep on opening up more questions which can be approached as refining the current construct, and result in more and more complex theory which is structured like a patchwork, when one looks at the detail. At such a time a paradigm shift is needed, where a whole new explanatory theory is needed.
Examples:
1. The failing of classical physics of the 19th century to cope with electromagnetism, which resulted in the discovery of relativity. But now there might be a need for something fundamentally different that unifies relativity and quantum mechanics – etc.
2. The phlogiston theory of chemistry – which at least superficially sounds a bit like the electrical engineer’s joke that stuff runs on smoke and when the smoke comes out it stops working.
Dr Tim Ferris
From: syss...@googlegroups.com [mailto:syss...@googlegroups.com]
On Behalf Of joseph simpson
Sent: Sunday, 21 August 2016 3:14 PM
To: Sys Sci <syss...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [SysSciWG] Eigenbehavior
Aleksandar:
System structure and system behavior are two different, interrelated concepts.
Similar conceptual tools (mathematics) may be used to analyze, explore and communicate information about any specific system.
Common metrics are needed to track progress.
It is not clear to me that a set of common metrics for this area of human endeavor exists at this time.
Have fun,
Joe
On Sun, Aug 21, 2016 at 12:15 AM, Aleksandar Malečić <ljma...@gmail.com> wrote:
I appreciate the response.
What I find interesting about it is that, regardless of whether people use eigenbehavior or some other neologism or terminology, it looks like someone familiar with natural science and engineering talking about individual and collective consciousness and behavio(u)r. It's an important work but very difficult/nearly impossible to track progress. Insights from "many moons ago" are just as relevant as the latest research, whatever that might be. If I am for instance having a peaceful and civilized communication, it looks pretty much as I'm doing nothing. It doesn't make the news.
Aleksandar
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--Joe Simpson“Reasonable people adapt themselves to the world.
Unreasonable people attempt to adapt the world to themselves.
All progress, therefore, depends on unreasonable people.”
George Bernard Shaw
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I read the portion you quoted but clearly took a different thread of interpretation. I got hooked on the idea of a measure of completeness of the theory.
I may have thrown in a red herring to that discussion.
Dr Tim Ferris
From: syss...@googlegroups.com [mailto:syss...@googlegroups.com]
On Behalf Of joseph simpson
Sent: Monday, 22 August 2016 12:35 AM
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Subject: Re: [SysSciWG] Eigenbehavior
Tim:
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That is a measure of ‘situation complexity’. That is, a measure related to some manifestation, and the description of that manifestation. It is likely useful to create such a measure, which will be helpful so long as the theory associated with its constituent aspects remains accepted.
As such it is a measure of something very different than a measure of the completeness of a theory.
Dr Tim Ferris
I read the portion you quoted but clearly took a different thread of interpretation. I got hooked on the idea of a measure of completeness of the theory.
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I believe that there is no way to confirm a theory is complete since there is always the possibility of the observation that falsifies – like the Einstein quote.
All we can really hope for is a theory which is capable of explaining all observations of which we currently know and which is predictively useful when we set up situations relying on the theoretically predicted outcome of a situation. (This latter effect is the foundation of engineering and anything like engineering.)
Therefore, until something happens to convince me to the contrary, I do not believe that the notion of measuring completeness of a theory is meaningful.
Dr Tim Ferris
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If there is diversity of interpretation or view among participants in a field it would suggest to me that at the present time the field is still developing. The result of this situation will play out in the social and intellectual climate of the field. Eventually for either social or success reasons it is likely that the number of contending views will decrease.
The long-term success of a field may well be connected to whether scientific truth or the social power of participants was the factor that drove the acceptance of theories. (See for instance some of the commentary about operations research by Russell Ackoff.) The social factor is a reason why advancing theory through a paradigm shift may take a long time and meet with much resistance.
Your theory seems to me to be quite constrained, as in about a particular point. This contrasts with a broad theory, such as how to specify systems ensuring that nothing that matters is left out of the analysis (including the NOT items that are the subject of your current theory). As such it is possible to be much more confident of completeness because the breadth of claim for coverage is constrained.
In addition, this specific theory has an interesting characteristic – since it is about things which are absences rather than present.
This gets into another issue with negation which has several aspects.
1. The mind works reasonably well with things that are present, can be observed, and the like.
2. The mind is poor at recognising something that is absent in the presence of many things that are present. Therefore, in selecting a product one may be carried away by the features of a product on offer, but without a formal selection criteria, forget that some feature which may be important for the intended application is absent. (Feature could also refer to some other property.)
3. Negation of something is potentially a huge space. A product which is x (matches a set of criteria that could be written as requirements) is something specific. Everything else that exists (or could exist), fits under ‘not x’ and is therefore hard to comprehend.
4. So ensuring that one specifies what a system will not do is a huge challenge that asks one to think of all manner of things which will be nowhere near the front of mind when thinking about a system for a particular purpose.
5. And there is the verification problem: how can one verify that a system does not do something under any set of conditions?
More concretely, if designing a system for a particular purpose, using a certain type of technology and physical phenomena, will one consider effects from a different physical phenomenon. For example, if designing a mechanical element, would one consider the impact of EMC effects? There would be some circumstances in which it may be relevant.
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I believe that there is no way to confirm a theory is complete since there is always the possibility of the observation that falsifies – like the Einstein quote.
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On Aug 22, 2016, at 8:05 PM, joseph simpson <jjs...@gmail.com> wrote:
Jack:
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On Aug 28, 2016, at 6:44 AM, Aleksandar Malečić <ljma...@gmail.com> wrote:
I'm glad we had this discussion. That call for papers can be found at http://www.univie.ac.at/constructivism/journal/special/eigen. I submitted an abstract today under the title "What Does Constructor Theory Construct?: Knowledge as a Physical Property".Aleksandar
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I'm glad we had this discussion. That call for papers can be found at http://www.univie.ac.at/constructivism/journal/special/eigen. I submitted an abstract today under the title "What Does Constructor Theory Construct?: Knowledge as a Physical Property".Aleksandar
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