The purpose of using asteroid-derived propellant in the orbital propellant
depots was to reduce the cost of the large amounts of propellant required
for Mars missions.
However, if reusable launchers become available then we would be able to
launch the Mars missions directly from Earth. Here's a video of a reusable
Falcon Heavy:
Falcon Heavy | Flight Animation - YouTube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ca6x4QbpoM
It shows the 3 cores being returned to the launch site. To estimate how much
the cost to orbit can be reduced, SpaceX has quoted a price of $125 million
for the Falcon Heavy. Elon Musk has also said the cost of the F9 is about
3/4ths first stage and 1/4th upper stage.
Then to find an estimate for the price of a core on the FH solve:
(3 + 1/3)X =$125,000,000, or X = $125,000,000/(3 + 1/3) = $37,500,000. And
the cost of the upper stage would 1/3rd of this to be $12,500,000.
On an "Ask Me Anything" Reddit, Elon suggested the Merlin 1D can do 40
reuses:
Elon Musk
reddit AMA - January 2015
http://interviewly.com/i/elon-musk-jan-2015-reddit
Then the cost for the Falcon Heavy using the 3 cores for 40 uses and the
upper stage for 1 use would be:
3*37,500,000/40 + 12,500,000 = $15,300,000. And the cost per kilo for the
53,000 kg payload cross-feed version would be 15,300,000/53,000 = $290 per
kilo.
In the blog post:
I suggested an Ariane 5 core at 168 metric ton(mT) gross mass could get a 6
mT habitat to Mars in 35 days. However, that was launching from cislunar
space where we could use the Oberth effect to boost our speed. However, when
launching from Earth orbit we'll need another 3.1 km/s delta-v for escape
velocity. A rule of thumb is that with hydrolox stages the same amount in
propellant mass as payload mass can get that payload to escape velocity. So
we need to double the mass to be delivered to orbit to 2*174 = 348 metric
tons. That is for the flight to Mars. We need the same for the return
flight, so another 348 mT for the return.
We also need a lander. A Centaur at ca. 20 mT gross mass can provide as a
singe stage sufficient delta-v to bring a 2 mT landing crew module to and
from the Mars surface to Mars orbit. So call the total mass that needs to be
delivered to Earth orbit for the mission 770 mT. But at a price of only $300
per kilo this would only be $231 million for the launch cost to LEO.
We need also to price the in-space stages. The full Ariane 5 cost is about
$200 million. Without the 2 side boosters and upper stage call the core
stage $100 million. We need 4 of these, to call it $400 million. A Centaur
for the lander costs $30 million. So estimate the total cost as $761
million.
I didn't include the costs of the habitats and crew module. As these will be
reusable their cost will likely be less than a few hundred million as well.
Bob Clark
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A mission to Europa could result in the most important scientific advance in
human history, dwarfing even the Apollo missions,
to discover life on another world. By commercial space, launch and
spacecraft costs can be slashed by a factor of 10 or more.
This would be a cost that could be financed privately. And at costs this low
it can even be done at a profit:
Low cost Europa lander missions.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2015/02/low-cost-europa-lander-missions.html
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"Robert Clark" wrote in message news:mr81da$pbv$1...@dont-email.me...