There Is No Observed Trend To More Extreme Weather Since 1871
hillrbal
The latest research belies the idea that storms are getting more extreme..
The project's initial findings, published last month, show no evidence of an
intensifying weather trend.
Researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over
the period from 1871 to the present, contrary to what the models predict.
Feb 10 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130300992126630.html
QUOTE:
Global-warming alarmists insist that economic activity is the problem, when
the available evidence shows it to be part of the solution.
QUOTE:
The London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation charges that British
authorities are so committed to the notion that Britain's future will be
warmer that they have failed to plan for winter storms that have hit the
country three years running.
Last week a severe storm froze Dallas under a sheet of ice, just in time to
disrupt the plans of the tens of thousands of American football fans
descending on the city for the Super Bowl.
On the other side of the globe, Cyclone Yasi slammed northeastern Australia,
destroying homes and crops and displacing hundreds of thousands of people.
Some climate alarmists would have us believe that these storms are yet
another baleful consequence of man-made CO2 emissions.
In addition to the latest weather events, they also point to recent cyclones
in Burma, last winter's fatal chills in Nepal and Bangladesh, December's
blizzards in Britain, and every other drought, typhoon and unseasonable heat
wave around the world.
But is it true?
To answer that question, you need to understand whether recent weather
trends are extreme by historical standards.
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project is the latest attempt to find out,
using super-computers to generate a dataset of global atmospheric
circulation from 1871 to the present.
As it happens, the project's initial findings, published last month, show no
evidence of an intensifying weather trend. "In the climate models, the
extremes get more extreme as we move into a doubled CO2 world in 100 years,"
atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project,
tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. "So we were
surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that
we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871."
In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme
weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict.
"There's no data-driven answer yet to the question of how human activity has
affected extreme weather," adds Roger Pielke Jr., another University of
Colorado climate researcher.
Some climate alarmists claim that cyclones, such as Cyclone Yasi, are a
result of man-made CO2 emissions.
We do know that carbon dioxide and other gases trap and re-radiate heat. We
also know that humans have emitted ever-more of these gases since the
Industrial Revolution.
What we don't know is exactly how sensitive the climate is to increases in
these gases versus other possible factors-solar variability, oceanic
currents, Pacific heating and cooling cycles, planets' gravitational and
magnetic oscillations, and so on.
Given the unknowns, it's possible that even if we spend trillions of
dollars, and forgo trillions more in future economic growth, to cut carbon
emissions to pre-industrial levels, the climate will continue to change-as
it always has.
That's not to say we're helpless.
There is at least one climate lesson that we can draw from the recent
weather: Whatever happens, prosperity and preparedness help.
North Texas's ice storm wreaked havoc and left hundreds of football fans
stranded, cold, and angry. But thanks to modern infrastructure, 21st century
health care, and stockpiles of magnesium chloride and snow plows, the storm
caused no reported deaths and Dallas managed to host the big game on Sunday.
Compare that outcome to the 55 people who reportedly died of pneumonia,
respiratory problems and other cold-related illnesses in Bangladesh and
Nepal when temperatures dropped to just above freezing last winter.
Even rich countries can be caught off guard:
Witness the thousands stranded when Heathrow skimped on de-icing supplies
and let five inches of snow ground flights for two days before Christmas.
Britain's GDP shrank by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2010, for which the
Office of National Statistics mostly blames "the bad weather."
The London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation charges that British
authorities are so committed to the notion that Britain's future will be
warmer that they have failed to plan for winter storms that have hit the
country three years running.
A sliver of the billions that British taxpayers spend on trying to control
their climes could have bought them more of the supplies that helped Dallas
recover more quickly. And, with a fraction of that sliver of prosperity,
more Bangladeshis and Nepalis could have acquired the antibiotics and
respirators to survive their cold spell.
A comparison of cyclones Yasi and Nargis tells a similar story: As
devastating as Yasi has been, Australia's infrastructure, medicine, and
emergency protocols meant the Category 5 storm has killed only one person so
far. Australians are now mulling all the ways they could have better
protected their property and economy.
But if they feel like counting their blessings, they need only look to the
similar cyclone that hit the Irrawaddy Delta in 2008. Burma's military
regime hadn't allowed for much of an economy before the cyclone, but Nargis
destroyed nearly all the Delta had. Afterwards, the junta blocked foreign
aid workers from delivering needed water purification and medical supplies.
In the end, the government let Nargis kill more than 130,000 people.
Global-warming alarmists insist that economic activity is the problem, when
the available evidence show it to be part of the solution.
We may not be able to do anything about the weather, extreme or otherwise.
But we can make sure we have the resources to deal with it when it comes.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130300992126630.html
EXTRACT FROM ABSTRACT:
Some surprising results are already evident.
For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North
Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the
Pacific-North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period
of record.
The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation
also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the
twentieth century.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.776/full
http://www.rmets.org/news/detail.php?ID=932
Warmest Regards
B0nz0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author
"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics
"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."
Bertrand Russell
k...@kymhorsell.com
> There Is No Observed Trend To More Extreme Weather Since 1871
The mark of a professional kook -- repeated negative claims each previously
shown to be false.
--
>Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?
Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100
hillrbal
<k...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
news:4d54b0e3$0$22472$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> In sci.skeptic hillrbal <b...@ccc.com> wrote:
>> There Is No Observed Trend To More Extreme Weather Since 1871
> ...
>
> The mark of a professional kook -- repeated negative claims each
> previously
> shown to be false.
>
"The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems
to be telling us."
Kerry Emanuel, Hurricane Researcher, MIT
1 Dec 2009
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=513997
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Standards. New homes were built in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina hit the
Gulf Coast in 2005. Now, as 100-year storms become 10-year storms, we may need
new building codes.
Elisabeth Rosenthal
Feb 12, 2011
NY Times
Under the weight of record snows, roofs across the Northeast have been
buckling this winter, raining debris on children skating in ice rinks,
crushing cows and tractors in farmers' barns and even flattening a garage full
of antique cars. In Dec, nearly 18 inches of new heavy snow brought down
the roof of the Metrodome in Minneapolis, forcing the Vikings to temporarily
relocate to Detroit.
And it was not just American infrastructure that appeared to be under the
weather, so to speak. In Brisbane, Australia, Jan storms ripped apart a
riverside boardwalk -- turning a concrete section 150 yards long into a
waterborne torpedo that threatened downstream bridges. The wall of a
Hungarian reservoir holding toxic red sludge crumbled in Oct after wk of
downpours, sending the waste into nearby villages. The litany of extreme
weather events has often left local officials scrambling to respond to each
new crisis, looking -- by turns pathetic and heroic -- like the little Dutch
boy with his finger in the dike, trying to fend off nature's monumental forces.
Global warming is most likely responsible, at least in part, for the rising
frequency and severity of extreme weather events -- like floods, storms and
droughts -- since warmer surface temperatures tend to produce more violent
weather patterns, scientists say. And the damage these events have caused is a
sign that the safety factors that engineers, architects and planners have
previously built into structures are becoming inadequate for the changing climat
e.
Dikes, buildings and bridges are often built to withstand a "hundred-year
storm" -- an event so epic that there is a 1% chance it will happen in
a given year. But what happens when 100-year storms are seen every 10 years,
and 10-year storms become regular events? How many structures will reach their
limits?
Engineers and insurers are already facing these questions. Munich Re, one of
the world's largest insurance companies, says climate-related events serious
enough to cause property damage have risen significantly since 1980: extreme
floods tripled and extreme windstorms nearly so. (The number of damaging
earthquakes -- which are not thought to be influenced by climate change --
have remained stable.) Statistics show that the frequency of days with heavy
precipitation is up in S America, N America and parts of Europe.
"Your own perception that there are more storms and more flooding causing
damage -- that is extremely well documented," said Peter Hoeppe, a
meteorologist who is the head of Munich Re's Corporate Climate Center. "There
is definitely a plausible link to climate change."
For insurers, the challenge has been how to insure structures against the
vicissitudes of increasingly extreme and severe weather. For engineers, new
weather raises difficult questions about what kinds of safety factors should
be built into designs and whether old structures need retrofitting or
reinforcing.
"As we get more extreme events, that absolutely changes how we design," said
D. Wayne Klotz, president of the American Society of Civil Engineers, who has
raised the topic repeatedly at the society's meetings. "We could stick our
heads in the ground and say nothing is changing. But it is."
Mr. Klotz, a water engineer in Houston, said his professional colleagues look
carefully at the changing statistics about factors like weather, and over time
alter building methods and plans accordingly. Engineers design for the
biggest flood or highest winds that seem plausible at a given time. The
drainage systems Mr Klotz builds now are different from those he engineered 20
y ago, because he knows that the Gulf Coast now has much heavier storms.
Unfortunately, he said, the municipal building codes that govern minimum
standards for many structures often lag behind "what is happening in the real
world," because of the slow pace of lawmaking. At the same time, a bad economy
makes countries, companies and individuals disinclined to invest in higher
levels of protection.
Individual engineers are "really aware of the predictions" about climate and
might, for example, suggest altering a design to accommodate a future sea
level rise, he said. But raising foundations or building higher dikes has a
cost, and owners often have a short-term view.
"I'd like to tell you there is a vigorous forum where we've locked arms and
are trying to scientifically figure out how to respond to the predictions,"
said Mr Klotz. "But there is not yet a concerted effort to change design codes
to accommodate them."
Widely varying predictions about climate change make it especially hard for
engineers to build for the future -- or for insurers to guard against
weather-related losses. Indeed, scientists do not entirely understand the
complex ways in which warmer temperatures influence weather.
Last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 2010
had tied for the warmest y on record in terms of land and sea surface
temperatures. At the simplest level, a warmer ocean surface means more
evaporation into the atmosphere -- and all that extra water has to come down
somewhere, probably accounting for more frequent and severe storms. But it is
not easy to predict which places will suffer snow or rain and which will
experience drought.
Munich Re is already tailoring its offerings to a world of more extreme
weather. It is a matter of financial survival: In 2008, heavy snows in China
resulted in the collapse of 223k homes, according to Chinese government
statistics, including $1 bn in insured losses, Dr Hoeppe said.
Homes built to resist higher winds will qualify for lower premiums.
Floodplains need to be wider than in the past, and Munich Re will not cover
structures built in overly risk-prone areas.
In most parts of the developed world, people will probably make the necessary
adjustments. This winter, travelers were stranded for days at airports in
parts of Europe and the United States, as severe snowstorms interrupted
flights. But, Dr Hoeppe noted, air traffic continued almost normally in places
like Helsinki, Finland, which is used to heavy snows. "Perhaps we'll have to
learn to deal with more snowfall -- extreme snowfall," he said. "We'll have to
get used to that."
But as engineers and architects sit down at their drafting tables to design
structures for the next 100 years, they want to know how extreme is extreme
when it comes to weather. "There's not enough money to design for every
eventuality," said Mr Klotz. "You try to design for the worst-case
scenario. But the question now is, what you can expect?"
[91 more news items]
---
[Call me kook:]
>A scientist cites a data point that is consistent with a trend and
>says "This data is consistent with the trend; no surprise".
>A kook cites a data point inconsistent with the trend and says "Surprise!
>The trend is Wrong Wrong Wrong!".
Sorry but 1917 invalidates the trend.
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 7 Feb 2011 13:29 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Agencia de Noticias Inter Press Service
Pavol Stracansky
Prague, Jan 22, 2011 (IPS) - Half of the Czech Republics population could face
water shortages because of climate change, a top climate change expert has warne
d.
The country has become one of the driest in the EU, according to local media,
and climatologists say the land, and crucial underground water supplies, are
drying up.
Prof Michal Marek, head of the EU-funded CzechGlobe climate change research
project, told IPS: "The Czech Republic is already seeing the effects of climate
change in more frequent extreme weather events and changes in biodiversity.
"But possibly the most important change is in the increasing drying out of the
landscape as drier periods get longer and are followed by bursts of intense
rainfall which the dry soil cannot absorb. This has a very significant effect
on underground water supplies."
Climatologists and meteorologists in central Europe have said that the region
is seeing more and more extreme weather including long periods of dry and hot
weather in the summer, severe flooding and bitter winter weather.
While not all parts of central and Eastern Europe will necessarily have the
same problems as the Czech Republic with underground water supplies because of
local geological conditions and other factors, heavy rains falling on ground
dried out by long periods of hot weather and unable to absorb water can
increase the risk of flooding.
Poland, The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria and Germany have all
been hit by devastating floods in the last 2 years.
Summer and winter temperature records have also regularly been broken over the
last decade.
Weathermen in Slovakia have begun speculating that weather zones which cover
the region are moving steadily north: that the climate seen typically in
northern Italy including long, hot, dry summers and bursts of heavy rains -
will move a few 100 km N to cover much of Austria, Slovakia and parts of the
Czech Republic.
In turn the climate associated with those countries will move and bring with
it different weather to parts of Germany and Poland.
With these changes rainfall patterns will also be different and in the Czech
Republic, hydrologists say that such changes are already being observed.
Climatologists warn that such change could pose a dramatic problem for the
countrys water resources.
In 2006 the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute said research indicated that
by the middle of this century some of the countrys rivers could have dried out
completely.
Some local ecological groups say that by 2050 there may not be enough water to
meet the populations basic needs.
Some Czech towns highly dependent on underground sources for water supplies
say that they are already feeling the effects of depleted resources.
In towns in the southwest of the country residents and local officials say
that in recent y they have been faced with water shortages after just a few wk
of dry weather, and some smaller settlements have to rely on water brought in
from other parts of the country.
The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, which monitors underground water
sources, has identified areas across the N and S of the country which are also
suffering from falling underground water levels. Local firms drilling outdoor
wells for homes have said that 30 y ago they would not need to drill more
than eight metres into the ground to find water, but that now they regularly
need to go to depths of 30 metres.
While experts say that water levels in underground water sources depend on a
variety of factors including local geological conditions and other water
flows, rainfall plays a significant role in replenishing underground supplies.
"It is one factor affecting underground supply of water but it is terribly
important," said Professor Marek.
Hydrologists say that there has been a marked change in rainfall patterns in
recent y with overall rainfall levels being similar to the long-term past but
precipitation being less frequent and, therefore, more intense.
Anna Hrabankova, a hydrologist at the T. G. Masaryk Water Research Institute
in Prague, told IPS: "Climate change is a reality. Rainfall is spread
differently throughout the y now. The rhythms of rainfall here have changed."
The Czech Republic, like neighbouring Poland and Slovakia, suffered severe
flooding nationwide last year. It was the countrys 3rd period of devastating
floods over the last 13 years.
Climate change experts say that rising global temperatures will, in some
places, lead to more intense rainfall over short periods.
"Extreme weather, such as flooding and big summer storms, is becoming more
frequent and this, I think, is a sign of the effects of climate change in the
Czech Republic," Professor Marek told IPS.
The situation with underground water sources in the Czech Republic is unlikely
to improve in the near future. The Czech Hydrometeorological Institutes
climate change department is predicting more weather extremes in the coming y
with longer periods of hot weather followed by sudden heavy rainfall.
Professor Marek said that he was pessimistic about the future effects of
climate change on the country, especially water supplies.
A report in Czech media this wk claimed that 50% of Czechs the proportion of
the population reliant on underground water supplies were facing water
shortages because of falling underground water levels. Some hydrologists
questioned the claim as being alarmist but Professor Marek told IPS: "I
absolutely agree with this figure. It is completely realistic from my point of
view, even though it would, of course, be a terrible situation.
"Problems with water supplies will only get worse and will be the single
biggest problem posed by climate change to affect the Czech Republic in the
future, worse than changes to biodiversity or anything else."
Ecological groups such as the Czech branch of Friends of the Earth, say that
measures must be taken to ensure that water is not lost, such as reversing
river courses which, over decades, have been artificially straightened and has
left them less able to retain water.
Professor Marek added: "The solution is landscape planning to prevent water
running off the land such as changing the use of land, agricultural practices
and natural features that help retain water."
[86 more news items]
---
[A]ll science is lies and the only thing we can trust is right wing rhetoric.
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Reuters
Feb 13, 2011
A Russian-led expedition aims to make the first-ever crossing from Russia's
Arctic shore into Canada over the N Pole, a months-long voyage over precarious
shifting ice floes.
The expedition, set to begin on Thu, will serve for some of the 1st tests of
Russia's GLONASS satellite navigation technol-ogy, Moscow's bid to challenge
the dominant US global positioning system.
The 8,000-km voyage is expected to reach Canada by the end of May and
finish by June 22, he said.
Eight explorers will set out in 2 specially designed vehicles with
overinflated tires that allow for travel over the snowdrifts and dangerous
Arctic ice cap, where above-freezing temperatures in the summer m can cause
the ice to break up.
The group, including 2 Russian-born Canadian citizens, plans to observe polar
bear populations at the pole and test for climate change and signs of global
warming, the results of which Chukov said the team would share later with
scientists.
[85 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[something]
Reported tornado hits St. Louis airport
[For trends in tornados hitting in the St Louis area see
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/stlouis-torn-num.gif>
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/stlouis-torn-num-smooth.gif> ].
CNN
HIGHLIGHTS
* The St. Louis mayor says the airport is closed indefinitely
* "The plane was rocking back and forth," one witness says
* CNN affiliate KSDK: The tornado ripped off part of a roof at one concourse
* Passengers are hit with flying glass and debris, KSDK says
(CNN) -- Heavy winds from a severe storm caused significant damage, shattered
windows and sent debris raining down on passengers at an airport in St. Louis
Fri night.
The Lambert-St. Louis International Airport is closed indefinitely while
officials investigate the damage, St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay told reporters.
"There was a reported sighting of a tornado. Although that has not been
confirmed, that storm caused significant damage to the airport," he said.
The reported tornado twisted metal and blew out plate-glass windows in the
airport's main terminal, CNN affiliate KSDK reported.
Four people were transported to nearby hospitals with injuries, Slay said.
Passengers were hit with flying glass and debris as winds ripped off part of
the roof in the airport's C concourse, the station reported.
One witness described a chaotic scene outside the terminal as officials
evacuated passengers from at least one aircraft.
"The plane was rocking back and forth," said Brett Knewitz of Albuquerque, New
Mexico, who was on a plane that was about to take off from the airport when
the storm hit.
Initially officials did not allow evacuated passengers into the airport, he
said, because of concerns that the building's roof would collapse.Once he was
allowed inside, Knewitz said he saw an injured gate agent.
"She was bleeding like crazy," he said.
Concourse C is used by American Airlines, AirTran and Cape Air, airport
spokesman Jeff Lea said.
The National Weather Service said witnesses believe a tornado was on the
ground for several miles and observed the twister from a tower at the airport.
KSDK reported that the storm also blew the steeple off a church and forced
authorities to close highways.
MYREF: 20110423170001 msg2011042312430
[132 more news items]
---
Of course "global temperature are rising" [...]
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[something]
Climate Change And Extreme Weather Events
Stephen Wilde
Irish Weather Online
Apr 22, 1:50 pm
It is commonly said that weather and climate are entirely separate so that
global temperature trends cannot be discerned from day to day weather, writes
Stephen Wilde.
Against that we all know that as soon as an exceptional event occurs there are
those who cannot resist announcing that it is a sign of global
warming. Indeed, it has been suggested that global warming results in more
extremes of every kind including exceptional cold spells.
Starting with 1st principles it does seem likely that something as significant
as a change in global temperature TREND really ought to be discernible somehow
on a day to day basis. After all, weather continuing over time IS climate. The
difficulty lies in deciding which weather indicators are useful and which are no
t.
Extremes are not particularly helpful. Whether the underlying temperature
trend is up or down extremes will always occur and are, in fact, frequent
events. Every day an extreme record is broken in many places and in part that
is a consequence of the short history of weather recording and the sheer
number of locations where humans are now available to observe weather events
that would have gone unnoticed a few decades ago. Add to that the huge number
of possible weather variables and their combinations together with the
enhanced awareness arising from current climate concerns and it is hardly
surprising that we are nowadays inundated with reports of extremes and
exceptional events. However there is no ready comparator between the number
and severity of extremes occurring now and those that occurred in the past.
The actual temperature at any given time is not much help either. When one
considers the available temperature range between absolute zero and the
boiling point of water the fact is that an average change of a couple of
degrees centigrade is not physically noticeable and there is a possibility
that of the upward temperature change observed in ground based recording sites
at least a portion of that change could be attributable to changes in the site
characteristics over time.
Increased building development and general urbanisation around and near sites
is a prime candidate. That will be why the more recent satellite based
recording systems do not fully reflect the observed ground based
rise. Satellites are still not as accurate as we would like them to be though
and even they require adjustment from time to time and sensible interpretation
of their readings. However for present purposes I do not intend to dispute
that there was some apparent warming during the 20th Century and especially
from 1975 to 1998. So far there has been no warming in the 21st Century.
To link day to day weather to climate over time requires a less specific and
more flexible indicator so to choose one it is necessary to ignore the obvious
and look at basic principles.
If the globe as a whole is warming it seems logical that there should be some
noticeable difference in weather patterns compared to times when the globe as
a whole is cooling.
Generally, heat arrives from the sun and is, over time, radiated to
space. Although radiation to space occurs over the whole planet there is a
general movement of heat from equator to poles via the oceans and
atmosphere. On average there is a net gain in heat in equatorial regions and a
net loss at the poles.
Unfortunately we know too little about the flow of ocean currents and the
thermal behaviour of the oceans to be able to draw any helpful conclusions
from oceanic features. I have my own theory on that point which I've expressed
in my earlier articles so that it may be possible to use the more recently
discovered decadal oceanic oscillations as a diagnostic tool but this article
is about weather so I will leave the oceans to one side in this article.
We have to look at the flow of air in the atmosphere to see if we can find
anything that helps.
The most noticeable airflow phenomenon in the atmosphere is the jet stream. It
guides the movement of mid latitude depressions and effectively marks an
interface between warmer equatorial air and colder polar air. The intensity of
the flow affects the depth and speed of the depressions and the speeds of the
winds around them.
It is very important to be aware that coolness or warmth in themselves do NOT
affect the severity and strength of weather systems overall. It is often said
that global warming will result in greater extremes of storminess but that is
in my opinion fear mongering nonsense. What matters in the creation of
extremes of storminess is temperature differential not absolute temperature or
amount of water vapour being carried by the air (warmer air can carry more
water vapour). Warm humid air will not dump it's load unless it is cooled down
so if the globe warms evenly or cools evenly there will be no change in the
frequency or severity of storms. In practice any temperature change either up
or down will be increasing or decreasing differentials depending on the
temperature regime at the commencement of a new trend. Neither warming nor
cooling is any different in that respect. So, extremes of storminess are not a
useful indicator either way. They just indicate that changes are occurring but
are neutral as regards the direction of change.
Logically a warming spell must be evidenced by more warmth coming in at the
equator than is lost to space by radiation. A cooling spell must be evidenced
by more heat being lost to space than is coming in at the equator. The
question is whether those 2 scenarios produce different weather signals and I
believe they do.
It only needs tiny differences either way to switch the globe from net cooling
to net warming and as I've said in my previous articles my belief is that the
influence of the sun combined with the heat storage capacity of the oceans is
so large and overwhelming that the greenhouse effect would have little effect
on the switches from net cooling to net warming or vice versa. The importance
of the greenhouse effect lies in it's contribution to overall temperature so
that with it the world is warmer than it otherwise would have been but that
cannot override the hugely greater effect of the sun and oceans in controlling
the switches between warming and cooling trends. The only effect it could have
would be to delay or bring forward the date of the changes between the two
modes. In fact it may be that the oceans set the global atmospheric
temperature and not the atmospheric greenhouse effect but I will deal with
that in my next article.
So, what weather indicator might suggest we are in either a cooling mode or a
warming mode?
Overall cloudiness globally could be a useful indicator but it's so hard to
measure reliably that I'm inclined not to use it. Whilst on the subject I
should consider the apparent correlations between cloudiness and cosmic rays
or cloudiness and geomagnetic changes. After consideration I believe they are
secondary correlations of no predictive significance. I believe that what
happens is that in periods of solar induced cooling the atmosphere in the
process of cooling becomes unable to hold as much water vapour so that overall
cloudiness increases. It is quite true that when the sun is less active there
are more cosmic rays hitting the Earth and there are geomagnetic changes but I
see no present need to include those processes in an explanation of any
increased cloudiness.
As always one should start with the simplest explanation namely that the Earth
gets cloudier when the atmosphere is cooling and less cloudy when the
atmosphere is warming because warmer air holds more water in vapour form than
does cooler air. All we need to explain cloudiness changes is temperature
changes. It follows that more global precipitation is a sign of cooling
whereas less global precipitation is a sign of warming but for the purposes of
this article I am looking for a more consistent weather indicator of global
temperature trend.
It is noteworthy that there do seem to have been more severe precipitation
events since the global temperature trend started to turn downwards recently
but I still see suggestions from committed alarmists that that is a
consequence of warming rather than cooling. I strongly disagree with such people
.
My submission is that one needs only to observe whether the net movement of
air over the entire globe at the surface is either from poles to equator or
vice versa.
If the net surface flow is towards the poles we are warming. If the net
surface flow is towards the equator we are cooling. Naturally, air circulates
so any net flow in one direction has to return to source from the opposite
direction at a higher level in the atmosphere so the concept of a net flow in
any particular direction can be confusing.
Perhaps better to regard it as similar to the difference between clockwise and
counter clockwise movement and if one takes a lateral cross section of the
atmosphere it is easier to envisage with the lower level winds effecting the
primary warming or cooling process and returning back to source at higher
levels. If one stands at 45 degrees latitude and faces W then a warming flow
will be in the form of a counter clockwise rotation and clockwise for a
cooling flow. It will never be that obvious of course because we are
considering a net average effect over time but the mental image may be helpful.
The problem then lies in knowing how to tell the difference in a three
dimensional mixture of gases such as the atmosphere which has many chaotic
movements at all levels.
I like to keep things simple and to rely on real world observations. I have
observed the cooling of the 60's to mid 70's, the subsequent warming, the
stall in warming that followed and now possibly a move towards cooling.
There is a noticeable difference in day to day weather patterns which over
time indicates one trend or the other but it is too rough and ready to
diagnose the scale of either. For present purposes however we need only
discern the trend. The scale of any trend will require other diagnostic methods.
Simply put, are areas around the 45 degree latitude getting winds mostly from
a southerly point or mostly from a northerly point? Could it really be that simp
le?
When I refer to northerly or southerly winds I mean any flow of air with a
component from one direction or the other, not just direct northerly or
southerly flows.
To decide whether I am talking nonsense or not all one needs to do is consider
the movement of the jet streams in conjunction with the main high pressure syste
ms.
If jet streams, on average, are further S then the high pressure systems to
the N of them predominate and the globe is cooling. If, on average, they are
further N then high pressure to the S of them predominates and the globe is warm
ing.
I'll leave it to others to check it out but I'll just give an illustration.
Snow in Lancashire in 1963
I well remember the very cold winter of 1962/63. The UK persistently had high
pressure over Greenland and Northern Europe giving a primary flow of air from
the north. That feature was not just for the duration of that
winter. Throughout the cooling trend up to 1975 or thereabouts winds with a
northerly component were much more common than they were during the subsequent
warming trend.
During the warming trend from 1975 to 1998 there were very few northerly flows
of air in Western Europe. The hot summer of 1976 had the main area of
high pressure over Southern Europe bringing a steady flow of hot equatorial
air northwards. From 1998 to date there has been a shift away from the more
frequent southerly flows and since 2007 the tendency for a polar component to
wind flows at 45 degrees latitude in both hemispheres has increased
further. In the spring and early summer of 2008 N America has been plagued by
regular incursions of air from the N and Western Europe has been cooler than
average due to many days of winds with a northerly component.
It is not a clear and tidy situation because the weather patterns change
greatly from y to y and season to season despite the underlying warming or
cooling trend and local variations can hide the underlying trend unless one
looks at the whole hemisphere. Cold plunges over N America in winter give warm
plumes over Europe which is what happened last winter (2007/2008) so despite a
global cooling tendency Europe was anomalously warm.
My conclusion is that a careful observation of weather patterns over the
entire globe and, in particular, ascertaining whether there is a net average
surface movement of air towards the poles or towards the equator should reveal
whether there is an overall global warming or cooling trend at any particular
time. The best place to make the observation would be at 45 degrees latitude
in each hemisphere because the halfway point between equator and pole is
likely to be the point of balance if the global temperature were to be steady
(which never actually happens).
In relation to CO2 the question is whether the influence of CO2 is strong
enough to completely disrupt the operation of the switch from warming to
cooling and vice versa in the face of what would have happened anyway due to
other (probably Solar and Oceanic) influences or whether it just has a minor
modulating effect. That is a matter that is the subject of much debate but it
seems to me that if that were possible it would have happened many times in
the past at times of much higher CO2 levels than the present day so that the
risk would be readily apparent in the historical record but it is not. CO2
levels always seem to have followed warming and never to have caused it.
I have heard it said that periods of severe volcanic activity in the
geological past increased global temperatures by emitting substantial volumes
of greenhouse gases. That may be so but is not necessarily an indication that
CO2 caused the warming. Volcanic activity puts a great number of gaseous
materials into the atmosphere so any warming as a result of severe volcanic
events would be more likely a result of increasing overall atmospheric density
rather than just being attributable to CO2 emissions. As Venus shows us, a
denser atmosphere results in a stronger greenhouse phenomenon. The thinner
atmosphere of Mars shows the opposite scenario.
In fact, atmospheric density is far more important than the proportion of CO2
in dictating the strength of a planet's atmospheric greenhouse effect. It
hardly matters if CO2 creates a warming influence during a natural cooling
period. If anything it is helpful to planetary life by mitigating the adverse
effects of the natural cooling.
If CO2 adds to a natural warming trend then it is only going to have a
significant effect at or around the peak of the natural trend and so will only
be a temporary phenomenon and highly unlikely to cross any `tipping' point.
Additionally a serious cooling period from natural causes is likely to
increase oceanic CO2 absorption and so dampen down any CO2 effect in the
subsequent natural upturn although the length of lag is uncertain and may be
as long as 800 years.
So, climate shifts of as broad a type as a shift from overall warming to
overall cooling should be capable of being spotted at a very early stage by
careful observation of global weather systems.
Climate is only weather that continues over time. A change in the general
pattern can be discerned over and above the daily chaos.
In fact the weather change (which could either be sudden or gradual) is the
1st available indication that a climate change is under way provided it is
observed globally in the way I suggest rather than locally or regionally.
No doubt false alarms are likely but over time a new pattern becomes gradually
clearer.
MYREF: 20110423180001 msg2011042322051
[131 more news items]
---
[It's not "land" warming -- it's just "ocean" warming!]
QUOTE: Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has
occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather
than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases over land.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 14 Dec 2010 10:35 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[something]
Global warming will toast Wisconsin, report warns
[For trends in Australia's extreme weather see
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/aus-extreme.html> ].
Heavy rains in June 2008 caused a dam failure that drained all water from Lake
Delton, leaving boats stranded and resorts closed.
Mike Ivey
The Capital Times
Sat, April 23, 2011 5:00 am
Rising temperatures could have a devastating impact on Wisconsin's economy
over the next decades, from a shrinkage in agricultural production to a
meltdown of the American Birkebeiner ski marathon, according to a national
report pegged to Earth Week.
In fact, the report predicts winter temperatures here will rise 6 to 11
degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, with summer temps climbing 8 to
18 degrees higher.
And because of its reliance on dairy farming, forestry and tourism, Wisconsin
would face more significant effects than other states. By 2050, Wisconsin
could face a loss of $6.2 bn in gross domestic product and nearly 39k jobs.
The report was written by the American Security Project, a nonprofit,
bipartisan public policy organization working on a range of issues. The group
is chaired by former Sen. Gary Hart and includes both military and political lea
ders.
Professor Don Waller, a botanist at UW-Madison, reviewed the report for Biz
Beat and says it's accurate and raises some important questions.
"We sometimes assume that building our economy and creating jobs demands that
we sacrifice concerns for clean air and water and a healthier
environment. That's a false dichotomy. In fact, it's downright wrong." Waller sa
ys.
"The careful studies that this report is based on make clear that we benefit
-- in jobs and in economic growth -- when we embrace the future. Businessmen
in China are getting rich building wind turbines and solar cells. Why aren't
we?" he asks.
The report references in particular the rainy Wisconsin summer of 2008. In
one day, roughly 6 inches of rain fell across parts of south-central
Wisconsin, causing a failure of the Lake Delton dam and battering the
Wisconsin Dells' billion-dollar tourism sector. Farmers also lost millions due
to destroyed crops, reduced yields and the inability to plant at the
appropriate time.
Going forward, severe weather will have a devastating impact on the state
agricultural scene, according to the report. In 2008, Wisconsin had about 78k
farms, with income totaling almost $10 billion, roughly two-thirds from
livestock, dairy and poultry.
"The quality of milk will likely suffer as a result of warmer winters and less
snow cover, which could reduce the quantity and quality of spring forage," the
report warns.
In particular, extreme heat poses a significant threat to dairy cattle as milk
production declines with higher temperatures. Higher temps also pose a threat
to cash grain crops such as corn or soybeans.
The report makes special note of the impact on northern Wisconsin's forests,
which account for about $18 bn in revenues and 74k jobs. A hotter climate
could threaten natural ecosystems, likely causing spruce, hemlock and fir
forests to shrink and other species to spread northward.
"Perhaps the greatest economic loss for the forestry industry in the Great
Lakes region would be experienced by the virgin pulping/wood fiber industry,"
the report says. "A shift toward oak and hickory trees (hardwoods) would
completely eliminate the softwood pulp industry and create difficulty for
forest product industries that rely predominately on softwood feedstocks."
Wisconsin's $7 bn tourism and recreation industries are also at risk, the
report says, noting the impact of global warming on water levels and animal
habitat. Hunting, fishing and wildlife viewing are credited with attracting
over 4 mn tourists to the state annually.
"Winter sports -- including the famous American Birkebeiner ski race -- are
also threatened by climate change," the report predicts. "Businesses
associated with skiing, snowmobiling and ice fishing could be hampered by
lesser amounts of snow and diminishing levels of ice cover on the state's lakes.
"
Still, the report notes that Wisconsin could reduce the impact of global
warming by shifting to a cleaner energy economy. Since the state has no oil,
goal or gas reserves of its own, it sends $20 bn out of state annually to
purchase fossil fuels, which contribute to global warming emissions.
The Clean Energy Jobs Act, which was championed by former Gov. Jim Doyle but
failed to clear the Legislature last year, was predicted to save $1.9 bn by
2025 by requiring the state to generate 25% of its electricity from
renewable sources like wind, solar or hydropower.
In addition to reducing global warming emissions, the Clean Energy Jobs Act
was expected to generate 16k new Wisconsin jobs.
"The important point this report brings out is that it is not jobs vs. the
environment," says UW's Waller. "In fact, it's quite the opposite. We benefit
economically as well as environmentally if we begin moving faster towards
newer and more efficient technologies."
A separate report issued Thu also notes the opportunities and challenges for
the Midwest regarding clean energy.
The report from the National Wildlife Foundation -- Unfinished Business: What
the Midwest Needs to Do to Lead in the Clean Energy Economy -- gives the
Midwest mediocre grades as a region for its progress toward building a clean
energy economy.
"Wisconsin helped lead the effort to establish a clean energy roadmap for the
Midwest, but is now slowing the region's progress," says Keith Reopelle,
senior policy director at Clean Wisconsin. "With Gov. Walker's recent
rejection of high-speed rail funds and attacks on wind energy, our state has
gone from being a clean energy honor student to the back of the class."
Indeed. Walker to date has shown little interest in alternative energy. His
proposed 2011-13 budget eliminates the state Office of Energy Independence and
nixes any requirements that state vehicles use less gasoline.
The state vehicle fleet has also been operating under a directive that by 2015
it reduce gasoline use by at least 50% from 2006 levels. Walker wants to
eliminate the requirement and drop the reduction goal to 20 percent.
Along those lines, Walker wants to do away with any requirements regarding use
of hybrid-electric vehicles or alternative fuels in state-owned vehicles.
The proposed budget also deletes a rule that the state consider energy use in
the purchase of new appliances, lighting or heating systems costing under $5,000
.
Instead, Walker wants the Department of Administration to develop a
"cost-effective, balanced, reliable, and environmentally responsible energy
strategy to promote economic growth."
Walker's office did not respond to a request for comment on the American
Security Project report.
MYREF: 20110424210001 msg2011042424959
[131 more news items]
---
[On knowing your constituents:]
I always thought faremers were a gullible bunch!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 9 Feb 2011 12:09 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Conditions ripe for severe weather this summer [Canada]
A tornado was spotted in Manitoba Sat, and Environment Canada's senior
climatologist says Canadians could see more extreme weather this summer.
CTV
Sun May 29, 08:37 PM
The twister was spotted near the Manitoba town of St. Adolphe, and was such a
brief encounter, many in the town only learned of it the next day.
Hail also came down in other parts of the province.
Environment Canada's David Phillips says a wet spring could be the catalyst
for severe summer weather across the country.
"When you get all that water, water that will be evaporated under warm
temperatures, it will create some of the fuel you need to create thunderstorms
and hail storms and windstorms," he told CTV News.
"And with it being warmer than normal (this summer), I think there is the
potential there for severe weather."
Phillips says Canadian summers are generally full of severe weather. Canada
is the second-most tornado prone country and has about three-million lightning
hits a year.
"Canadians should recognize that we do get extreme weather but that shouldn't
ruin the kind of summer we do have," he said.
<http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_3_0_t&bvm=grid&topic=blende
d&usg=AFQjCNEXL1Is0Iq-GHf9H8HWPQfX7xWOyg&did=281d64d975619646&sig2=Hbo_xJlBw1cNR
Wy2xsqBKQ&cid=8797703951583&ei=qlXjTdjuF8n1lAX435qBAw&rt=HOMEPAGE&vm=STANDARD&ur
l=http%3A%2F%2Fm.ctv.ca%2Ftopstories%2F20110529%2Fextreme-weather-110529.html>
MYREF: 20110530210001 msg2011053024062
[222 more news items]
---
The global warming Mormons of NASA are so disturbed by public perception
that this winter is verging on the chilly across the northern hemisphere
that they have produced a map showing areas where they claim alarmingly high
temperatures are prevailing, such as the middle of the Arctic Ocean.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 29 Dec 2010 15:46 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Hail, Heat, Droughts, Tornadoes: Why the Increase in Extreme Weather?
The flip side of our constant partly/partly weather is an increase in the
number of extreme, short-term weather occurrences.
Robert J Riccio
Hybla Valley Patch
May 30 2011
Over the past few months--spanning the m of March, April and May--we have had
everything from snow and temperatures in the 90s, lightning strikes that have
knocked out power and rain storms that have resulted in flash flooding. In
addition, we had several tornado watches, a warning, single days wherein the
temperature swung 30-40 degrees between dawn and dusk, and 2 instances of golf
ball-sized hail in Rose Hill.
We have all heard about global warming and the effect it is having on our
global weather. The 2 warmest y in our globe's weather tracking history (1998
and 2005) have taken place within the lifespan of any child currently 13 y
old. Much of the seasonal extremes (such as the large temperature fluctuations
and above average precipitation) can be attributed to factors related to that
warming, and the temperature increases in near-surface air and in our planet's
oceans. What many of us had not realized is what impact this trend is having
upon our local living conditions.
On July 26, 2010, CNN reported: July's brutal onslaught of record heat
continued in the eastern United States, with more than 220k Pepco customers in
the DC area without air-conditioning. Last night's violent thunderstorm
resulted in 270 downed trees, more than 20 damaged traffic signals [lights]
according to VDOT [Virginia Department of Transportation]. The heat wave is
expected to continue with the heat index forecasted to exceed 105 degrees.
The Rose Hill Shopping Center's McDonald's was without power for 4 hours
that day and the traffic light at Franconia and Rose Hill Drive was out for
the entire Mon morning rush hour.
On August 5, 2010 Arlington's Fairlington neighborhood experienced a
"microburst" which snapped dozens, perhaps 100s of trees, uprooting huge older
trees and left the area with tree crews working for days.
On Oct. 31, 2010, Halloween revelers along Rose Hill Drive bundled up as if
trick or treating in mid-winter. The temperature they had gone to school with
(66 degrees F) had since dropped 30 degrees to rest at 36 degrees F for the
duration of the candy grab. The following 2 weeks, absences due to illness
(mostly colds and flu) increased at several area schools and at many local
businesses with employees who were parents of young children.
On a cold winter day, Jan. 28, the Government of the City of Alexandria posted
a FAQ (http://alexandriava.gov/SnowFAQ), following a very heavy snowfall,
due to the number of annoyed communications citizens bestowed upon the city's
government as street snow removal lingered. 6 wk later, heavy spring rains
caused flooding throughout the Northern Virginia area on March 11.
The rain water flowing down Franconia Road, west-to-east, at Craft, across
from the Mark Twain Middle School, caused flood damage to many of the homes in
the Sunny Ridge Estates neighborhood stretch between Franconia and Picot Roads
that spring. That middle school, sitting on a ridge, a bit higher than the
homes, was spared, but gym classes were curtailed as their track and athletic
fields were unusable for most of that week.
As of late, in small and large ways, our "partly sunny/partly cloudy" weather
has been neither, instead it has been extreme to the point of affecting many
of our daily life routines.
Note: A great source of information on DC-region-wide weather, but also
providing some partially localized forecasts, is:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang.
MYREF: 20110531110001 msg201105317104
[225 more news items]
---
[I am Luddite!]
You whackos just keep changing your "predictions" to suit reality!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 16 Feb 2011 15:57 +1100
lutonorge
"Mr Posting Robot" <ro...@kymhorsell.dyndns.org> wrote in message
news:4de43e05$0$13390$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
>
> BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>>[coal lobby spin]
>
> Hail, Heat, Droughts, Tornadoes: Why the Increase in Extreme Weather?
>
> The flip side of our constant partly/partly weather is an increase in the
> number of extreme, short-term weather occurrences.
LEFTIST/WARMIST RUBBISH!
There Is No Observed Trend To More Extreme Weather Since 1871
The latest research belies the idea that storms are getting more extreme..
Feb 10 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130300992126630.html
QUOTE:
QUOTE:
But is it true?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704422204576130300992126630.html
EXTRACT FROM ABSTRACT:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.776/full
http://www.rmets.org/news/detail.php?ID=932
Warmest Regards
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Extreme spring weather could put a chill on summer
Jane M Wolkowicz
Medill Reports [Chicago, Northwestern University]
May 27, 2011
Tornados in the Midwest are just one example of this season's extreme weather.
It might be May, but Chicago commuters are still wearing heavy coats and hats
due to chilly temperatures.
Devastating tornados in Alabama and Missouri, flooding along the Mississippi
River and an unseasonably cold spring here in Chicago. All things considered,
it's a season of extreme weather. And Mayor Rahm Emanuel, visiting Chicago's
911 Emergency Response Center this week, said the city needs to prepare.
"It is clear from the blizzard, the tornadoes, the hurricane and the flooding
that what we assumed in the past to be abnormal weather patterns are becoming
now normal weather patterns," he said.
But experts warn that, although extreme weather may continue into the summer,
it's too early to attribute it to climate change. Climate change models do
predict extreme variations in weather as well as more rain and flooding in the
Midwest and drought in other areas.
However, parts of the country, including the Midwest, are more directly under
the influence of La Nina, said Richard Castro, a meteorologist at the National
Weather Service forecast office in Romeoville.
La Nina, or "the girl," causes colder than usual weather due to atmospheric
cooling and lower sea temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. (In
contrast, El Nino, or "the child," causes the weather to be warmer than
normal.)
"Obviously temperatures this spring felt cooler than normal," he said.
"Although overall average temperatures haven't been that far below normal,
we've still had frequent precipitation and plenty of cold days here [in
Chicago]."
And Castro said that these cold spring days could unfortunately mean a cooler
than normal summer ahead.
"Considering what I've been looking at, I would think that it will probably be
cooler than last summer," he said. "Right now the Climate Prediction Center
(in Maryland) is predicting a 40% chance of below average temperatures for the
upcoming months."
Emile Okal, a professor in the earth and planetary sciences department at
Northwestern University, said cold weather across the country has also
contributed to tornados forming across the Midwest.
"Spring is the height of tornado season," he said. "But considering this is a
late spring that is colder than usual, it's not surprising that there could be
a rash of tornados and we are experiencing their furor."
A devastating tornado that devastated Joplin, Mo, on Sun has killed more than
125 people and more than 200 are still missing.
Okal said, although there might be more tornados in the upcoming weeks, he
doesn't expect them to continue into summer once the atmosphere warms up.
Somnath Roy, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at University of
Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said that is because La Nina and the cooler air in
the atmosphere are on their way out.
"I would say that the worst is over," he said. "Flooding is still going to be
a concern but, with La Nina weakening, I don't expect us to have problems
except for some relatively weak effects lingering into summer but not all the
way to fall."
Increasing rainfall and flooding in the Midwest with drought in other areas
are already apparent and are associated with climate change models.
But Roy cautions people to be wary about attributing the spring's extreme
weather trends to climate change.
"I can see how, with all the deaths and devastation people would want to
attribute the weather to some prophecy like global warning," he said. "But
let's not do that because it's too early."
Okal echoed that statement.
"There has been flooding before and there will be flooding again the future,"
he said. "This is more of a manifestation of the situation with the weather
that moves faster than anything, and it could take centuries before the
effects of global warming are felt."
Chicago is already preparing. The city has its own climate adaption plan in
place for a predicted temperature hike that would make this area feel more
like the Deep S by the end of the century due to global warming.
Larry Merritt with Chicago's Department of the Environment said the city will
do more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as examine what types of
trees can be planted to mitigate temperatures and how buildings can be made
more energy efficient with green roofs or other materials.
"The sciences have shown that climate change is taking place and if we don't
do anything to reduce emissions, temperatures are inevitably expected to rise
in cities," he said.
MYREF: 20110531170001 msg201105316761
[223 more news items]
---
[Something about "warm bath in sanctimony"]
Pop over to Tim Blair's for a look.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 14 Feb 2011 14:39 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Extreme Weather May Be New Norm
Lab News Daily
May 31, 2011
Swings between the 2 climatic extremes El Niño and La Niña appear to have
occurred more frequently in the past than previously thought and may increase
in regularity in the future.
Researchers say El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the sloshing of the
warmest waters on the planet from the W Pacific towards the E Pacific every
2-7 years, continued during the Earth's last great warm period, the Pliocene.
It is these extreme ENSO events that cause droughts, forest fires, and
flooding--like that in Pakistan last y and in Queensland, Australia this year,
as well as changes in fishery production.
Reporting in the journal Paleoceanography, researchers use the Pliocene as a
past analog and predictor of the workings of Earth's future climate.
The Pliocene (which lasted from 5 to 3 mn y ago) had CO2 levels
similar to the present day, with global mean temperatures about 2-3ºC higher,
so it is a useful test-ground for climate research.
"We know from previous studies that the mean state of the Pacific during the
warm Pliocene was similar to the climate patterns observed during a typical El
Niño event that we see today," says Nick Scroxton from the Univ. of Oxford.
"However, until recently it was believed that a warmer Pacific would reduce
the climate swings that cause the dramatic weather extremes throughout the
region leading to a permanent state of El Niño. What we didn't expect was that
climatic variability would remain strong under these warmer conditions."
MYREF: 20110601113002 msg2011060130176
[227 more news items]
---
Check the dates and times when Bozo posts. It's a 5 day Monday-Friday 8
hour working week.
-- Tom P, 26 Nov 2008
actserbar
>
> BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>>[coal lobby spin]
>
> Extreme Weather May Be New Norm
>
> Lab News Daily
> May 31, 2011
>
> Swings between the 2 climatic extremes El Niño and La Niña appear to have
> occurred more frequently in the past than previously thought and may
> increase
> in regularity in the future.
>
ROTFLMAO
THE WARMIST WHACKOS JUST KEEP CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO SUIT THE FACTS!
This is the scaremongering claptrap they were spouting not so long ago ....
El Nino Upon El Nino
"It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos
are going to become more frequent, and they're going to become more intense
and in a few years, or a decade or so, we'll go into a permanent El Nino. So
instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we'll have El Nino
upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you'll have an El Nino,
that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years," Dr. Russ Schnell, a
"scientist" doing atmospheric research at Mauna Loa Observatory. - BBC, Nov.
7, 1997
Mr Posting Robot
...
> "actserbar" <t...@tak.com> wrote:
> "Mr Posting Robot" <ro...@kymhorsell.dyndns.org> wrote in message
> news:4de5968b$0$22471$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> THE WARMIST WHACKOS JUST KEEP CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO SUIT THE FACTS!
Changes In Weather Patterns Creates More Severe Storms
A Kansas State University climate expert attributes the increase in the number
and severity of tornadoes and severe storms in 2011 to a change in weather patte
rns.
KAKE
May 31, 2011
A Kansas State University climate expert attributes the increase in the number
and severity of tornadoes and severe storms in 2011 to a change in weather patte
rns.
John Harrington Jr., professor of geography, is a synoptic climatologist who
examines the factors behind distinctive weather events. He credits the
increased tornado production this y to jet stream patterns in the upper
atmosphere. The patterns have created synoptic events such as the April
tornado outbreak in Alabama and recent tornado in Joplin, Mo. While these
events are not unprecedented, they are significant, he said.
"To put them in all in one year, that's what has people talking about this
stuff," Harrington said. "The fact that this is happening all in one y and in
a relatively short time frame is unusual."
Special circumstances are necessary for the creation of tornadoes in the Great
Plains, Harrington said. A humid atmosphere with moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico and the right jet stream pattern coupled with surface convergence help
to spawn a thunderstorm. Uplift from the jet stream helps to create the
towering clouds associated with severe thunderstorms. Add a wind pattern set
up with air filtering into the storm from the S at low levels, from the
southwest at mid-levels and the northwest at higher levels, rotation of the
thunderstorm cloud begins and its possible for a tornado to form.
"Unfortunately in terms of death and destruction, we've had too many of those
events this year," Harrington said.
Forecasting tornadoes far ahead of time differs from the more advanced
hurricane and weather prediction methods. The National Weather Service's
Climate Prediction Center does not predict tornadoes, rather it attempts to
predict jet stream patterns a m or so in the future.
In the wintertime the jet stream tends to flow above the southern United
States. It migrates northward by the summertime. The area receiving the most
tornadoes tends to shift with jet stream location as well. Oklahoma usually
has a higher frequency of tornadoes in April, while Kansas experiences most of
its tornadoes in May, Harrington said.
Synoptic patterns are different in autumn as the jet stream migrates back
south, with much drier air across much of the US While this does not preclude
fall tornadoes from occurring, they are rare events. Connecting the surface
conditions with the jet stream flow pattern helps a weather forecaster
understand the likelihood for severe storms.
"That's pretty important in terms of understanding the kind of environment
that will produce the necessary thunderstorms that rotate," Harrington said.
Extreme examples of weather have not been isolated to tornadoes. Heat waves,
blizzards and severe storms have been increasingly more frequent or more
severe according to US data, Harrington said. These changes can be attributed
to changes in the climate system.
The increase in severe weather events is drawing attention, he said.
"We have these good historical precedents for specific synoptic events, but
they're starting to come more frequently together. That's what is very
interesting, is that this weather system seems to be getting more variable."
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---
You would think that we'd know the Earth's `climate sensitivity' by
now, but it has been surprisingly difficult to determine. How
atmospheric processes like clouds and precipitation systems respond to
warming is critical, as they are either amplifying the warming, or
reducing it.
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming", 2008
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Conditions ripe for severe weather this summer
CTV News [Canada]
Sun May 29, 08:37 PM
A tornado was spotted in Manitoba Sat, and Environment Canada's senior
climatologist says Canadians could see more extreme weather this summer.
The twister was spotted near the Manitoba town of St. Adolphe, and was such a
brief encounter, many in the town only learned of it the next day.
Hail also came down in other parts of the province.
Environment Canada's David Phillips says a wet spring could be the catalyst
for severe summer weather across the country.
"When you get all that water, water that will be evaporated under warm
temperatures, it will create some of the fuel you need to create thunderstorms
and hail storms and windstorms," he told CTV News.
"And with it being warmer than normal (this summer), I think there is the
potential there for severe weather."
Phillips says Canadian summers are generally full of severe weather. Canada
is the second-most tornado prone country and has about three-million lightning
hits a year.
"Canadians should recognize that we do get extreme weather but that shouldn't
ruin the kind of summer we do have," he said.
<http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_17_0_t&usg=AFQjCNEXL1Is0Iq-
GHf9H8HWPQfX7xWOyg&did=281d64d975619646&sig2=FkZ3Fajk-pU_sDgcY9wpeg&cid=17593899
176892&ei=Sr_mTdD2Mcn1lAWry-VU&rt=SECTION&vm=STANDARD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fm.ctv.ca%
2Ftopstories%2F20110529%2Fextreme-weather-110529.html>
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[A]ll science is lies and the only thing we can trust is right wing rhetoric.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Australia's Kakadu wetlands 'under climate threat'
Jun 3 2011
Sydney (AFP) -- Rising sea levels linked to global warming will endanger
Australia's World Heritage-listed Kakadu wetlands, according to a government
report released Thu as part of the campaign for a carbon tax.
Prepared for the climate change department, the study found Kakadu was "one of
Australia's natural ecosystems most vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change", with higher oceans a "serious risk" to its ecosystem.
Monsoon rainforests, mangroves and woodlands would suffer and unique turtle,
fish, crab, crocodile and bird species would decline, said the report, which
mapped impacts based on international climate projections for 2030 and 2070.
Some culturally significant sites for the local indigenous Bininj tribe would
become impossible to access, while sources of income and "bush tucker" --
traditional wild food -- were likely to be compromised, it added.
Kakadu National Park is a World Heritage site of cultural and natural
importance sprawling across some 20k square km (8k square miles) from coast to
hinterland in Australia's tropical north.
The Bininj are believed to have hunted and lived there for some 60k years.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the report was a "stark reminder of the
ongoing challenge Australia faces to protect its magnificent natural assets"
and sounded "yet another warning bell about the dangers of climate change."
"The report shows why it is critically important to take action now to combat
climate change," Gillard said.
The PM has been intensifying her push to tax polluters from next July in a bid
to tackle carbon emissions blamed for global warming.
Australia is among the world's worst per capita emitters, relying heavily on
coal-fired power and exporting millions of tonnes of the fuel to Asian
steelmakers and electricity firms every year.
Gillard wants to introduce a fixed-price levy on emissions for 3 to 5 y
which will transition to a cap-and-trade scheme, where the government will set
a national limit on pollution and sell permits to firms.
But she is facing stiff opposition from her political opponents and big
business, particularly the heavyweight mining industry, which claims
investment will be lost offshore and the economy will suffer.
Oscar-winning actress Cate Blanchett came out in support of a carbon tax this
week, fronting a television campaign advocating action on climate change.
Gillard's cause was also bolstered by the final report of Ross Garnaut, the
government's top climate adviser, who on Tue recommended a levy of Aus$26
($28) -per-tonne on carbon emissions and shift to a trading scheme by 2015.
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---
[Before the flood:]
The recent Murray Darling run-off since the floods would have provided
enought irrigation water to last at least 15 years.
Instead it has all run out to sea!
Crazy anti-dam greenies!
-- "BONZO"@27.32.240.172 [100 nyms and counting], 12 Nov 2010 14:05 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Extreme Weather to Fuel Food Inflation: Analyst
CNBC.com
June 02, 2011
Extreme weather conditions can push food prices, already on a high in Asia,
further north. In 2011 food inflation could be close to 5% in Asia,
provided there is no sudden spike in the year.
If there is a sudden spurt say of 10 percent, then the overall figure for raw
food inflation could touch 5.5% in 2011. This compares with 4.5% in 2010.
Already, reports of higher fruit and vegetable prices are emerging from China,
especially in provinces hit hardest by the drought. Higher electricity prices
are likely to pass into prepared food prices, which have been rising strongly
in the past few months.
Prepared food has a large weightage in most Asian CPI baskets. On average, we
estimate that prepared food accounts for more than 40% of food
inflation in emerging Asia.
The share of prepared food is especially high in Singapore, S Korea and Hong
Kong, reflecting their "eating out" culture. This means the pass-through from
higher raw food prices into prepared food in these economies is usually rapid,
especially in an environment of elevated energy costs.
<http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_5_0_t&bvm=grid&topic=blende
d&usg=AFQjCNEu9w5zsaPwuCIbICAV2wh_znuhUw&did=fe854fd9de41932e&sig2=xpZuos_xOwRkF
KEQnGycww&cid=17593900780356&ei=MDLoTeDaAcn1lAXz4oiEAQ&rt=HOMEPAGE&vm=STANDARD&u
rl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2Fid%2F43247436>
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[Irony 101:]
[By my count BONZO has called people whacko 137 times; fool 26; idiot
22 times; twit 17 times; moron 14 times in just the past 4 wks. There
is a 10+-year history, however].
Warmist Abuse Shows They're Losing
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 16 Feb 2011 17:15 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Extreme Weather Week on The Weather Channel - details
April MacIntyre
Monsters & Critics
Jun 3, 2011, 21:16 GMT
Tornadoes in Massachusetts, crazy hot humid weather from Maine to Miami, the
weather gets more bizarre every day.
Tune into the Weather Channel on Mon, June 6 Thu, June 9 at 8 p.m. ET with
encore presentations at 11 p.m. ET Viewers can visit weather.com to vote on
the Top 5 Worst Weather for Fris show.
2011 has been a record-breaking y with severe weather ranging from extreme
snow to the flooding of areas around the Mississippi River and many
catastrophic tornado outbreaks.
TWC's severe weather experts will review the science behind these events and
many historical extreme weather events during Extreme Weather Week.
Tune in as The Weather Channel counts down the top 5 extreme weather events of
2011 as well as the top 5 hurricanes, tornadoes and the worst weather of all
time. Each night - during this special-themed week, extreme weather events
will be highlighted during 4 half-hour shows, which are listed below.
Top 5 Extreme Weather Events of 2011 Mon, June 6 and Thu, June 9
Top 5 Hurricanes Tue, June 7
Top 5 Tornadoes Wed, June 8
Top 5 Worst Weather Fri, June 10
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---
[Cause and effect:]
>[explanations for climate change]
You left out "emerging from an ice age"!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 12:40 +1100
Ed
wrote:
> BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
> >[coal lobby spin]
>
> Extreme Weather Week on The Weather Channel - details
>
because the weather channel never seems to know that the weather will
be 8 months from now when I have my Tee time on vacation. He's
obviously a liar who is culpable in the great Al Gore global warming
scam.
It's all part of the big weather conspiracy. That's why I trust the
Farmer's Almanac.
They say that rabbit turds are smelling better this year, which
portends to a great Spring, which means the spiders won't attack
Sydney and kill dingos until December.
Since I'm an investor and you're just another socialist Sydney
cosmopolite, I'm betting on the rabbits. But who doesn't these days?
Donald Trump and Sarah Palin had rabbit turds on that pizza they ate
in Times Square the other day.
.
Mr Posting Robot
...
> Ed <ed.car...@ymail.com> wrote:
> On Jun 3, 7:00=A0pm, "Mr Posting Robot" <ro...@kymhorsell.dyndns.org>
> wrote:
> It's all part of the big weather conspiracy. That's why I trust the
> Farmer's Almanac.
Climate Change: Does it affect the Farmers' Almanac Forecast?
Caleb Weatherbee
Mon, September 14th, 2009
Farmers' Almanac
There's a chill in the air. Fall is around the corner, the Farmers' Almanac
has released its winter outlook, and the leaves are starting to turn
color. Yet a question remains hot- does the Farmers' Almanac alter its
long-range weather formula to take climate change and global warming into
consideration?
Here are some questions and answers that were recently posed to Caleb
Weatherbee, the Farmers' Almanac Weather Prognosticator and the only keeper of
the well-guarded and top-secret weather formula the Almanac has been using for
192 years:
Q: Does the climate change we're experiencing or global warming make your job
harder with the forecasting? Is it changing the way you formulate the
predictions?
Except for short-term events that could alter our long-range forecast, such as
a major volcanic eruption or a very significant El Nino (as was the case
during the winter of 1997-98), we pretty much stick to the same methodology in
our issuance of our long-range weather outlook. And even in the wake of a
major volcanic eruption or El Nino, we would not alter our forecast, but we
might caution our readers that thanks to the short-term effects of such
phenomena, it could upset our published predictions to a certain degree.
Q: What are the major factors the Almanac considers when making weather
prognostications from y to year?
The Farmers' Almanac predictions are based on a very old but effective formula
that takes a variety of factors into consideration. This formula is
top-secret, but has proven to be accurate almost 80-85% of the time. This
isn't to say we haven't refined the formula at all, but we do not really alter
it based on climate changes or global warming.
For any given year, the major factors we look at closely can vary. Sunspots,
for example, occur on a general 11-year cycle. So while for one specific y the
forecast might lean heavily on the number of sunspots (or lack of any spots),
that could be much less of a weather factor 5 or 6 y later when solar activity
might be significantly different. We closely monitor the changing distance of
the Moon relative to Earth, as well certain lunar cycles. And lastly, we
follow a list of rules developed by David Young, the 1st editor of the
Farmers' Almanac, who called them his "weather canon." This canon might be
regarded as our famous and closely guarded "secret formula" that dates back
nearly 200 years
Q: Does the Farmers' Almanac notice any effects of climate change in weather
patterns?
Surprisingly, we really haven't noticed any effects of climate change, at
least from the standpoint of our issuance of annual forecasts. We have,
however, noted over the long-term the seemingly short-term memory of many in
regard to weather events. You want to talk about wild weather?
Look back on the decade of the 1930s when it seemed like weather records were
being broken almost every other wk across the US That was the decade of the
great dust bowl in the Plains States; the decade where New York saw their
temperature drop to their all-time low of 15 below zero in 1934, and then
climb to their all time high of 106 less than 2 y later in July, 1936!
How about the decade of the 1950s, which was noteworthy for being
exceptionally hot with major hurricanes in the heavily populated Northeast in
1954 (Carol and Edna), 1955 (Diane), and 1960 (Donna)?
In the 1960s, a number of reputable scientists were writing papers in science
journals speculating that we were possibly headed toward another ice age . . .
Through it all, we here at the Farmers' Almanac have just continued to keep
doing what we always have been doing. To us, we recognize that some of our
human behavior should be more responsible when it comes to this planet we're
living on, but overall, the theories of climate change and global warming have
not affected the way we make our forecasts.
Caleb WeatherbeeCaleb Weatherbee is the official forecaster for the Farmers'
Almanac. His name is actually a pseudonym that has been passed down through
generations of Almanac prognosticators and has been used to conceal the true
identity of the men and women behind our predictions.
---
Everyone agrees that the climate is changing, but there are violently
diverging opinions about the causes of change, about the consequences of
change, and about possible remedies.
-- Freeman Dyson, "Many Colored Glass: Reflections on the Place of Life in the
Universe", 2007.
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Changes in weather patterns creating more severe storms
John Harrington Jr
June 1, 2011
[Provided by Kansas State University].
(PhysOrg.com) -- A Kansas State University climate expert attributes the
increase in the number and severity of tornadoes and severe storms in 2011 to
a change in weather patterns.
John Harrington Jr, professor of geography, is a synoptic climatologist who
MYREF: 20110605023002 msg2011060528810
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[Non-performance. BONZO posted a dozen quotes before "discovering"
Freeman Dyson accepted man-made climate change as real]
>Dyson accepts AGW.
Huh?
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], Mar 1 16:00 EST 2011
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Temperature reaches 97, breaks 29-year record
Adam Harringa
Austin Daily Herald
June 3, 2011
Break out the shorts, Austin.
Temperatures soared to a record-high 97 degrees in Austin Fri, breaking the
previous record of 91 set on June 3, 1972.
Zack Taylor, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in La Crosse,
Wis, said a high pressure system from the Gulf of Mexico made for
unseasonably warm weather.
"We had a ridge of high pressure, allowing a warm, humid air mass to surge
through, and today, temperatures kind of soared," he said.
Yesterday's high was 78, and the maximum is expected to be around 81
tomorrow. But another system could bump the temperature into the 90s early
next week.
"We'll be down to more seasonal temperatures this weekend, but we are showing
a similar pattern next week, so high temperatures could be in the 90s Tue and
Wed," Taylor said.
There is a 20% chance of thunderstorms and showers on Sat, and a 30% chance on
Sun night and Mon.
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Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Wet weekend will shatter rain records
Victoria Colliver
San Francisco Chronicle/AP
Fri, June 3, 2011
This NOAA satellite image taken Fri, June 3, 2011 at 8 AM PDT shows thick
clouds off the coast of California associated with a low pressure system. This
system will bring scattered showers into Northern California as it advances E.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/object/article?f=/c/a/2011/06/03/BA1I1JPBLO.DTL&ob
ject=%2Fc%2Fpictures%2F2011%2F06%2F03%2Fba-NOAA_WEST_0503568035.jpg
San Francisco -- The last time it rained this much in June, the Summer of Love
was just beginning. And it might even be as wet as it was 127 y ago when
residents were driving horse-and-buggies and the big social phenomenon of the
moment was the Industrial Revolution.
The amount of rain expected over the just next 2 days in San Francisco is
almost certain to exceed the 1.4 inches that fell during the whole m in 1967 -
and it may be even break the all-time record of 2.57 inches going back to June 1
884.
"All rainfall records will be broken over the next 2 days," said Steve
Anderson, forecaster for the National Weather Service, emphasizing that these
monthlong records will be shattered in just the 1st few days of this month.
The city's one-day rainfall record for June 4 was set back in 1934 when half
an inch fell. That will be easily obliterated Sat, Anderson said.
Forecasters predict San Francisco will receive one to 2 inches through the
weekend with the bulk of the rain hitting tonight and continuing through Sat
afternoon. Sprinkles could fall Sun and early next week.
The parts of the Bay Area to receive the most rain will likely be in Marin
County - Kentfield and Mount Tamalpais - where as much as 3 or 4 inches is
expected. Even more may fall in the Big Sur region as well as the Santa Cruz
Mountains, Anderson said.
The entire country seems to be experiencing a wild ride of wacky weather in
recent weeks. Deadly tornadoes have blown through the Midwestern states and
even Massachusetts, while other parts of the country and E Coast have been swelt
ering.
It turns out the W Coast rain, which is expected to reach as far S as
Santa Barbara, is connected to those weather patterns.
Large areas of high pressure in the middle part of the country are preventing
the low-pressure areas spinning out of the Gulf of Alaska from moving east,
Anderson explained.
"That high pressure is like a big mountain not allowing the storms that come
in from the W to travel eastward," he said.
Forecasters say the rain will taper off Sun and normal dry conditions could
return by mid-week. Yet even then temperatures are only expected to reach
highs in the mid-60s and mid-70s.
Anderson said the unusual influx of rain can't be blamed on global warming, El
Niño or some other larger weather phenomenon. "We would love to pin it on
something or point to a source of origin, but you can't do that with one
storm,' he said.
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Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
More schools request waivers to cut school y short because of severe weather
Sixth-grade teacher Beth Hewlett, a 17-year veteran with Cambridge Elementary
School, said she was shocked when she tried to go to work the day flooding
shut down Vermont 15 and several other roads in town.
Molly Walsh
Burlington Free Press
Jun 4 2011
At least a dozen Vermont public schools have received waivers from the state
granting permission to cut the school y short of the 175-minimum student days
required under state law in the wake of spring flooding and heavy winter snows
that forced many school day cancellations.
Cambridge Elementary School is among the waiver recipients. School officials
had pushed the last day of school from June 9 to June 15 due to snow-related
disruptions. Then a whopper spring flood hit Lamoille County on April 27,
making it impossible for teachers, staff and the schools 350 students to get
to the building and forcing another school closure.
Literally you could not get to the school that day, which hasnt happened in
the 10 y since Ive been there, principal Mary Anderson said.
Fortunately the water did not enter or damage the school but it did a number
on a calendar chock full of events. With much of the school y over, it
would have been difficult to change the dates of year-end celebrations and
field trips, Anderson said. Nor would it be productive in her opinion to add a
day in mid-June when the potential for high temperatures makes it difficult
for children to focus, she said. Our building heats up like a furnace. It can
be 90 degrees in some of the rooms when its 80 outside.
Other schools in Lamoille N Supervisory Union were in similar straits and the
superintendent of schools sought and received a one-day waiver for all 7
schools in the system from the Vermont Education Board. The board also granted
a one day waiver to St. Johnsbury School, a two-day waiver for graduating
seniors at Fair Haven Union High School (which had many snow day closings);
and waivers for several schools in N Country Supervisory Union. Several
other requests are pending, according to the Vermont Education Department.
Education Commissioner Armando Vilaseca said he normally sees one or two
waiver requests a y making this y highly unusual. Asking schools that have
already added make-up days to add more is problematic, he said. Changing
long-set dates for graduation when schools have rented spaces or paid for
services is burdensome, and extensions can also create problems for families,
faculty and staff who have booked vacations, signed up for summer courses or
made other commitments. For us to say no, you have to go another day, it would
really wreak havoc with families and schools, Vilaseca said.
Along with setting the 175-day minimum, state law requires school calendars to
include a minimum of 5 contingency days beyond that.
The minimums are an attempt to ensure that Vermont students spend sufficient
time on tasks and learning. That goal, though, needs to be balanced against
other factors, including natural disasters such as floods, school officials say.
This y severe weather took a toll on some Vermont schools and the Vermont
Education Board needed to recognize that, Vilaseca said. You have to give
those people a break.
Around Chittenden County, the last day of school for most students arrives in
mid-June June 17 in Burlington and S Burlington but some schools will be in
session longer. The public schools in Bolton, Jericho, Huntington, Richmond
and Underhill will run until June 23.
This school y Mother Nature doled out a vicious downslope windstorm in Dec,
heavy snow all winter, and rain that flooded roads several times. Richmond
Elementary had closures due to the weather, in addition to a water service
problem, said Michael Berry, principal. This y we had such extreme weather condi
tions.
Students are anticipating the end of the school year, but June will be full of
great programming and the last day of school will come along soon enough, said
Berry. We have fun and we all get to that summer point.
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Of course "global temperature are rising", we're emerging from an ICE AGE!!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
The new normal
Climate change is no longer a theoretical idea. It is already here, and
government has been forced to respond.
The Times Argus [VT]
June 5, 2011
The floods that swept through central and northeastern Vermont 9 days ago
were a unique weather event and by themselves are not evidence of a changing
climate. But the floods fit the pattern of extreme weather that experts have
been observing and point to a larger problem. For the past decade, every y
seems to have set a record as the hottest or been nearly the hottest. And hot
weather does several things.
In some places it produces drought, as it has in Russia and Australia,
resulting in devastating, crop-destroying wildfires. Hot weather also causes
more rapid evaporation, which puts a greater quantity of water into the
atmosphere, producing more snowfall and rainfall.
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was just one of the extreme events that have caught
the attention of scientists who have perceived a greater frequency of extreme
events. This y an unusually high number of tornadoes have caused severe
damage, not just in places where tornadoes are expected, such as Missouri, but
in Springfield, Mass.
This winter in Vermont was one of the snowiest ever. The spring that followed
was the wettest. So when a heavy downpour fell in the area from Montpelier to
St. Johnsbury on the night of May 26, the ground was already saturated and the
rain could only rush into already swollen rivers, which overtopped their banks
and damaged numerous businesses and homes, including the press in Barre that
prints The Times Argus and Rutland Herald.
No one weather event signals climate change. Put it all together, and it
becomes hard not to see that something larger is going on.
State officials have noticed. We are in a mode of responding to emergencies
and recovering, said Sue Minter, deputy secretary of transportation. But as we
look to the future we have to at least envision or assess if this will become
the new normal and be prepared for that. It does change the way we think and
plan. Or it should.
The Agency of Transportation is already considering how it might have to adapt
to increased flows of water as it builds or repairs the states culverts and
bridges. Transportation officials from around the country are considering the
possible effects of climate change, and officials in Vermont are trying to
learn what ought to be done.
The scientific evidence is mounting. A recent report from The Nature
Conservancy found that the Lake Champlain basin could receive 10 to 15 percent
more precipitation by the end of the 21st century, raising the level of Lake
Champlain by 4 to 6 inches.
Gov. Peter Shumlin has long sought to raise awareness of the climate crisis,
and lately he has named a climate Cabinet of officials to focus on its many
effects. The wild weather caused by climate change impacts the state at many
levels, he said, including increased snowfalls and flooding, unpredictable
storms and more.
It is one thing to respond to the effects of climate change by modifying our
culverts. It is another to address the causes of climate change, and Shumlin
is seeking to do that, too. His efforts are not without controversy, however.
Shumlins support for the large wind project proposed for the Lowell Mountains
ridgeline has drawn harsh criticism from those who do not view the gains in
sustainable energy as worth the environmental devastation on the
mountaintops. Green Mountain Power has proposed placing 20 wind turbines, each
more than 400 feet tall, along more than 3 miles of ridge, and the project
won approval of the Public Service Board last week. Lowell residents approved
the project, with some financial sweeteners from GMP, but many residents in
Lowell and nearby towns say the project represents major construction
inappropriate for the remote, pristine area.
Shumlin and other supporters would not be so enthusiastic about wind were it
not for the climate crisis, which demands that we pursue a wide range of
energy solutions to replace energy produced by fossil fuels. Opponents say
Vermonts power mix relies little on fossil fuels as it is. Supporters say that
every kilowatt produced sustainably is a kilowatt that doesnt have to be
produced using fossil fuels.
It is clear the climate crisis is not just washing out roads. It is eroding
the environmental consensus in Vermont. Critics of the Lowell project say it
is profit-driven and will leave a vast road network atop a devastated wild
landscape for little clean energy gain. And yet we are in a new era, searching
for a new normal, grasping at a way to achieve the progress needed to address
not just the effects, but also the causes of the changing climate.
MYREF: 20110606010002 msg201106066117
[219 more news items]
---
The "Holy Grail": Climate Sensitivity Figuring out how much past
warming is due to mankind, and how much more we can expect in the
future, depends upon something called "climate sensitivity". This is
the temperature response of the Earth to a given amount of `radiative
forcing', of which there are two kinds: a change in either the amount
of sunlight absorbed by the Earth, or in the infrared energy the Earth
emits to outer space.
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Is Climate Change Causing the Record-Breaking Tornadoes & Floods?
[For trends in Australia "extreme weather" (as defined by the BoM) see
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/aus-extreme.html> ].
Twister central: The United States is home to roughly 85% of the world's
tornadoes, but even by US standards this tornado season has been tragically acti
ve.
Natalie Wolchover
LiveScience/Life's Little Mysteries
26 May 2011 Time: 12:17 PM ET
Already this year, nearly 1,200 tornadoes have crisscrossed Tornado Alley,
killing nearly 500 people and leaving 1000s more homeless. Meanwhile, twice
as much rain fell in several states in the Ohio Valley this April than during
any other April on record. It produced extreme floods in May, swelling the
Mississippi River to a record depth of 60 feet.
Many people are wondering: Is climate change to blame for the extreme weather?
The tornadoes
Several studies have investigated the relationship between global warming and
the vicious tornado outbreaks. They've all given the same answer: "The data is
inconclusive."
"So far, we have not been able to link any of the major causes of the tornado
outbreak to global warming," Martin Hoerling, a National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research meteorologist, and his research
team recently announced.
Where tornadoes are concerned, inconsistent record keeping -- made more
difficult by the fact that the storms are relatively small and often last for
only minutes -- makes it hard to say whether there are more of them now than
there used to be. In recent years, the use of radar tracking, spotter networks
and higher populations "all contribute to an artificial upward trend in
tornado data, especially for smaller tornadoes," Hoerling, who works at the
Earth Systems Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo, told Life's Little
Mysteries, a sister site to LiveScience. "Those are becoming more frequently
reported not because there are more of them but because there are more eyes
looking for them. That creates some complications in doing a historical analysis
."
Setting the spotty historical record aside, researchers have started
investigating whether global warming might be conducive to conditions that are
favorable for tornadoes. Thermodynamic instability, the condition that causes
thunderstorms by forming vertical clouds, combined with wind shear, which
stabilizes the updraft and causes it to rotate, are the "perfect storm" that
leads to a funnel. Does global warming amplify these conditions?
Global warming does indeed increase the moisture content of the air (because
hotter air holds more moisture), which increases the likelihood of vertical
clouds forming.
However, those vertical clouds won't turn into tornadoes without the wind
shear, and "the expectation is that there will be less of that wind shear with
global warming," said David Easterling, chief of the Global Climate
Applications Division at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. "Part of it is
because you have an expansion of the tropical climate regime up into the
higher latitudes," and in the tropics, there is less wind shear.
So with one tornado-conducive factor being increased and the other being
decreased, it's really hard to say how global warming affects tornado
activity. But scientists are still looking into it. "Inconclusive data does
not lead you to conclude that there's no evidence of a connection," Hoerling sai
d.
The floods
As for the crazy flooding, scientists say that may well be caused, at least in
part, by global warming.
"The flooding and the heavy rainfall are consistent with what we expect with
global warming. Looking at some of the modern trends, we've seen increases in
the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, drawing a direct link between
what's happening in the Midwest and global warming," Easterling said.
There have always been floods, and global warming cannot be blamed for any
single event, the scientists explained. Overall, though, there is probably
more flooding than there used to be.
MYREF: 20110608210001 msg2011060815737
[224 more news items]
---
It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other
changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2
concentration would cause less than 1 deg C of surface warming (about
1 deg. F). This is NOT a controversial statement -- it is well understood
by climate scientists. (As of 2008, we were about 40% to 45% of the
way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2.)
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming 101", 2008
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Extreme heat could be fatal
Emergency officials urge people to drink lots of water in this high heat.
Jackie Johnson
Wisconsin Radio Network
June 8, 2011
Officials urge you to take precautions against heat stroke during these record
high temperatures.
In 2010, excessive heat claimed 138 lives across the country, according to Tod
Pritchard with Wisconsin Emergency Management. He says summer heat waves are
the biggest weather-related killers in Wisconsin. "We just seem to get a lot
of heat-related deaths; it far exceeds tornadoes and any other kind of severe
weather that we encounter."
In 1995 2 major killer heat waves affected most of the Badger State resulting
in 154 deaths and over 300 heat-related illnesses. Pritchard urges you to
listen to your body; slow down and limit physical activity; do things early in
the morning or evening -- not high noon; wear lightweight, loose-fitting,
light-colored clothing; and drink lots of liquids -- the right kinds of
liquids. "Water is still the best thing; alcohol will do more harm than good,
and avoid caffeine."
Pritchard says the most vulnerable people in our community are even more
vulnerable during heat waves. That means children and the elderly.
"...Because their bodies just are not able to handle severe heat. All of us
need to be careful, but those folks really need to be careful."
Pritchard says it's important to stay cool to keep you and your family safe,
but he admits that's easier said than done. When the temp is above 95 and you
don't have A/C, turn the fan around to blow that hot air out of the house. He
says you could go see a movie, shop at the mall, visit the library, or hang
out at a friend's house.
Be aware of cramps or muscle spasms, heavy sweating, paleness, weakness,
dizziness, headache, nausea, fainting, extremely high body temperature, rapid
pulse, confusion, and unconsciousness. Before things get bad, Pritchard
suggests you take a cool shower to cool down your body temperature. And, he
says, under no circumstances should any person or pet be left inside a vehicle
for any length of time. A car can heat up dramatically in a matter of minutes,
even with a cracked window. Madison Police, on Mon, cited a 42-year-old Sun
Prairie man for leaving a dog in a car for over 15 minutes. The temperature
was 93 at the time, and police said the dog was stuck in a vehicle that was
100 degrees or hotter.
MYREF: 20110609070001 msg2011060919765
[227 more news items]
---
[Call me kook:]
>A scientist cites a data point that is consistent with a trend and
>says "This data is consistent with the trend; no surprise".
>A kook cites a data point inconsistent with the trend and says "Surprise!
>The trend is Wrong Wrong Wrong!".
Sorry but 1917 invalidates the trend.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 7 Feb 2011 13:29 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Get Ready For a Historic Heat Wave, E Coasters
Temperatures across the U.S.'s E Coast could be as much as 20 degrees higher
than average, breaking records in some places.
RELATED:
Wildfires in Arizona
http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,2075894,00.html
Megan Gibson
Time Newsfeed
Jun 8 2011
The National Weather Service has issued a heat wave warning for parts of the E
Coast between noon Wed to 8 p.m. Thu, including southeastern Pennsylvania,
northern Delaware and W central New Jersey. There are predictions that
temperatures could near 100 degrees Fahrenheit. An expected high of 96 degrees
in Philadelphia would break the city's record previously set in 2008 for June 8.
New York City and some areas of New England could also be facing
record-breaking highs and the National Weather Service is warning that the
weather could lead to heat stroke and exhaustion, advising people to take
care. Please, NewsFeeders, stay hydrated and try to find some shade.
MYREF: 20110609110002 msg2011060911883
[223 more news items]
---
Scientists [and kooks] are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
have no tolerance for ambiguity.
It proves that all science is lies and the only thing we can trust is
right wing rhetoric.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100
CORRECTION:
True science, (remember that?) can be trusted, but this "science" is ALL LIES!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 19 Feb 2011 14:46 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Half the country sizzles in record heat
Brett Zongker
San Francisco Chronicle/AP
June 8, 2011 04:00 AM
Elsewhere:
* 2 Arizona towns empty as wildfire approaches
* US judges seem receptive to health care challenge
* Oakland bows out of running Museum of California
* Revolutionary Guard praises idea of nuke testing
Washington -- The mercury climbed into the 90s across 1/2 the nation Wed in a
record-breaking blast of August-like heat, forcing schools with no air
conditioning to let kids go home early and cities to open cooling centers.
Baltimore and Washington hit 99 degrees, breaking high-temperature records for
the date that were set in 1999, according to the National Weather Service. The
normal high for the date is about 82.
Philadelphia hit 97 degrees, breaking a 2008 record of 95, and Atlantic City,
NJ, tied a record of 98 set in 1999. Chicago reached 94 by midafternoon.
Forecasters said it felt even hotter because of the high humidity. The ridge
of high pressure that brought the broiling weather is expected to remain
parked over the region through Thu.
"I'm staying in my house. I'm going to watch TV and have a cold beer," said
84-year-old Harvey Milliman of Manchester, N.J. "You got a better idea than
that, I'd love to hear it."
Youngsters sweltered in Hartford, Conn, where school would have ended for the
summer by now if not for the heavy snows last winter that led to makeup days.
"I'm not even going to go outside this summer if it's going to be like this,
unless my mom makes me," said seventh-grader Kemeshon Scott, putting the final
touches on a social studies paper in a Hartford school with no air conditioning.
Public schools in Philadelphia and parts of New Jersey and Maryland cut their
days short. But Baltimore students were disappointed to find a public pool
closed when school let out early. The mayor later ordered the pools to open.
In Oklahoma, where temperatures have reached 104 4 times this month, the
Salvation Army said more people are seeking help with high utility bills
earlier in the season, and paramedics responded to more heat-related illnesses.
The deaths of 5 elderly people in Tennessee, Maryland and Wisconsin have been
blamed on the recent heat.
Cooling centers were opened in Chicago, Memphis and Newark, NJ, as a refuge
for those without air conditioning.
MYREF: 20110609185816 msg201106097174
[225 more news items]
---
It takes more than warmth to grow crops; otherwise the Sahara would be green!
--
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 21 Jan 2011 11:16 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Extreme Weather Makeover: The Dam Effect
Lori Pottinger
HuffPost
06/ 8/11 03:54 PM ET
It's been an unusually rainy spring here in the San Francisco Bay Area. The
damp weather has a few California farm-belt politicians mad as wet hens, as
some farmers in their districts will get less water than usual this y despite
high rainfall. These politicians -- who call the situation a "man-made
drought" (without a touch of irony) -- are now trying to dismantle
groundbreaking agreements that would restore the beleaguered San Joaquin River
with increased flows from huge dams that cut off the natural flow decades ago.
Man-made droughts are nothing new to those who live downstream of big
dams. Some 1/2 a bn people living on the dry side of dams have suffered from
the massive ecological and hydrological changes they cause. They experience
both man-made droughts from dams holding back the river's flow (in some cases,
to the point of the river disappearing completely from some of its course),
and man-made floods caused by poor dam design and management.
The 3 Gorges Dam has been much in the news in recent weeks, in part because it
has been implicated in worsening the impacts of a historic drought now
underway in China. According to the New York Times, water levels in 2 lakes
downstream of the dam -- Dongting in Hunan Province and Poyang in Jiangxi
Province -- have fallen dramatically in part because of the storage of water
in the reservoir behind the dam.
The Miami Herald reports: "Chinese officials pushed for water levels to hit a
height of 574 feet at the dam in 2008 and 2009 -- seeking maximum power
generation capacity -- and finally succeeded last Oct. That campaign came at
the cost of the downstream water supply."
In a measure of how desperate they are, China -- which has the world's biggest
weather-modification program -- is running out of cloud-seeding shells after a
massive effort to ease the drought in the Yangtze delta.
Three Gorges is only the latest dam to be associated with worsening
drought. In Venezuela last year, the Guri Dam -- the world's 3rd biggest dam
-- experienced a severe drought, leading to blackouts across the country. The
Guri Dam supplies 1/2 of the nation's electricity.
Dams don't just worsen droughts; it turns out that large reservoirs can also
be rainmakers. A new scientific study concluded that artificial reservoirs can
modify rainfall patterns in ways that natural lakes do not. Their findings
show that dams can increase the intensity of extreme rainstorms in their
immediate vicinity.
As Wired magazine notes, "That's a problem because the dams were designed for
the climate that existed in the area before they were built. If by virtue of
their creation, they increase the chance that an extreme weather event will
exceed the dams' capacity, they could be less safe than previously thought."
The researchers, which included scientists from a number of US universities
and research labs, note that the problem is worse in hot, dry
climates. Basically, the dam's surface area allows water to evaporate more
easily than it would from a river. The problem is worsened if the water is
spread around by large-scale irrigation. Some areas show as much as a 20%
increase in extreme precipitation events after dams were built.
Concerns about dam safety from rainmaking dams have not yet reached the
engineers who design them. The new study notes: "Indeed, dam design protocol
in civil engineering continues to assume unchanging [patterns of] extreme
precipitation events." My organization has for y been warning of the same
problem regarding climate change: large dams are being designed based on past
hydrological patterns, with little thought to how a changing climate will
affect dam viability or safety. Such practices create risks for future
generations that we can't begin to imagine.
Big dams are, in effect, experimental technology. Those who design, build and
operate them can't predict with any certainty the many serious impacts they
will have on life-giving river systems. With a changing climate, that learning
curve is about to get a whole lot steeper.
MYREF: 20110609233002 msg2011060922496
[220 more news items]
---
Scientists are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Detroit sizzles under record-breaking heat
Calvin Men and Santiago Esparza
The Detroit News
June 07. 2011 6:42PM
Metro Detroit's chilly, wet spring seems like a distant memory now.
Less than 2 wk after torrential rains caused widespread flooding,
the region is baking under record heat.
Temperatures in Detroit hit 94 degrees at 3 p.m. today, breaking the
43-year-old record for June 7 by 1 degree, according to the National
Weather Service.
"It's unusual to get such a warm air front at this time of the year,"
said Amos Dodson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in
White Lake Township.
The weather service issued a heat advisory through midnight Wed
for all of southeast Michigan, with the high temperatures and humidity
combining to make it feel like 95 to 100 degrees.
High temperatures of 93 to 95 are forecast for Wed.
A warm air mass is moving E across the Midwest, bringing the warm
temperatures and humidity, said weather service meteorologist Matt Mosteiko.
The Southeast Michigan Council of Governments today announced Wed
would be an Ozone Action Day, the 1st of the y in Metro Detroit
and the earliest since 1999.
To help keep the region's air clean, motorists are asked to avoid
refueling, or to do so in the evening. People are also urged to reduce
vehicle use and avoid using gas-powered lawn mowers.
Dave Bonman, 56, of Wyandotte spent about an hour this morning fishing
for perch and walleye at the municipal boat launch in his city.
"It's a pretty nice day," he said, outfitted with a hat and sunglasses.
"It's pretty good fishing."
Bonman, a General Motors employee at the plant in Hamtramck, is off
work until the end of the m and tries to go fishing with his sons
two or 3 times a week.
"I got all kind of time," he said.
MYREF: 20110610083001 msg2011061020501
[219 more news items]
---
[Weather is responsible for climate change:]
And that's the only reason for the heat!
Strong northeast winds being superheated desert air from the inland to the
the southern capitals.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 31 Jan 2011 13:42 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Dry Weather Brings Extreme Drought To Georgia
WSBTV [Atlanta, GA]
1:34 pm EDT June 7, 2011
ATLANTA -- The summer of 2011 is beginning with 2 different drought
stories depending where you live in Georgia.
Severe Weather Team 2 meteorologist David Chandley said Tue that
parts of N Georgia are experiencing no drought to abnormally dry
conditions, despite ten straight days of 90 degree temperatures.
However, most of central and S Georgia are in extreme drought
conditions or level 3 intensity set by federal officials.
Most of metro Atlanta is in the abnormally dry to moderate drought
category but rainfall over the past m has been 1/2 of our normal
amount and stream flows are low, according to Chandley.
The hot, dry weather is not impacting our lakes like in 2008. Alatoona
Lake is at full summer pool and Lake Lanier is only 2 feet from full
summer pool, and just below the June average.
The real fall line runs from Columbus to Macon to Augusta. S of
that line is where the drought situation is a huge concern as some
areas are reporting record low stream flows, Chandley said.
Right now the drought of 2011 is more agricultural than hydrological
and Chandley said the hope is for tropical rains to soak the parched
soils in the next several months.
Another day topping 90, that is 10 in row for Atlanta. Only a few spots
in the N Georgia Mountains may see a shower or t-storm this
evening. Little relief is ahead into the weekend.
Tonight:Mostly clear and warm. Lows in the 60s to near highs in the low
to mid 90s.
Thu: Mostly sunny and hot. 20% chance of isolated afternoon and
evening thundershowers. Winds SW 5-10 70 in town.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. Winds S 5-15 mph. mph. Lows near 70; highs
in the low to mid 90s.
MYREF: 20110610093001 msg2011061012009
[217 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
More extreme weather
China Daily
2011-06-08 07:56
The severe floods in some parts of the middle and lower reaches
of the Yangtze River that were suffering from the severest
drought in more than a 100 y points to the reality that
extreme weather conditions are becoming more prevalent.
The total area of arable land affected by the drought in the
drought-hit 5 provinces dropped from 3.79 mn to 2.3
million hectares in 3 days from Mon to Wed this week.
Grievances against either the dams in the upper reaches of the
Yangtze or the unfairness of the heavens won't help the victims
of the drought and deluge. What is urgently needed is the means
for people to rebuild their lives.
No less important is whether governments at all levels have
given enough thought to preparations against potential disasters
that might be brought about by extreme weather conditions.
The water conservancy capacity for small and middle-sized water
conservancy projects in Central China's Hubei province has
dropped by 40% in the past several decades, according to
statistics from the province's water control bureau. Their
capacity to drain flood-waters and irrigate farmland has shrunk
by 1/2 and more than 1/2 of the facilities in all the
province's water pumping stations are badly in need of repair or
maintenance. And 40% of the arable land can hardly resist
any drought or flood.
In an extreme case, an irrigation canal built with an investment
of more than 1 mn yuan ($154,281) was torn apart by local
residents in Xishui county of Hubei simply because it was so
badly deigned and constructed that it failed to provide the
water rural villagers need.
Hubei province is not prepared for the increasingly frequent
natural disasters and clearly the situation is no better in
other provinces seriously affected by the drought this year.
The water level in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze
has frequently fallen to new historical lows in the past decade,
reaching a record low this year. Fighting against drought and
floods, sometimes both in swift succession, will turn out to be
a permanent job in the near future, if it is not at present.
If anything, the need to be prepared and increase vigilance
should be the lesson governments at all levels learn from the
drought and floods this year.
Investment in water conservancy and irrigation projects will
effectively reduce the amount of money local governments will
have to pay for disaster relief in the future.
MYREF: 20110610100002 msg2011061023154
[216 more news items]
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Stretches of the Country Face Record-Setting Heat
Related
* Hot Enough to Exasperate, Since It's Technically Spring (June 9, 2011)
Timothy Williams
NY Times
June 9, 2011
It was so hot in St Paul that a once-giant snow pile, the remnant of a long,
harsh and suddenly vanquished winter, succumbed this wk in 103-degree heat.
So stifling in Indianapolis that a projected high on the cool side of 90
degrees -- even if that meant 89 -- was greeted with thanks worthy of
benediction. And so miserable in Philadelphia that a meteorologist summed up
the forecast in 3 words: "Considerably more disgusting" than the day before.
A heat wave that has taken hold across much of the Central and Eastern United
States intensified Thu, with cities from St Louis to Richmond, Va, seeing
record or near-record high temperatures, cloying humidity and dangerously
elevated ozone levels.
Officials responded by closing schools early, opening public pools before the
start of swimming season and establishing cooling centers in municipal
buildings for people without air-conditioning.
All this, and the start of summer is still nearly 2 wk away.
"We are seeing conditions that we normally don't have until August," said Jim
Keeney, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. "The heat has been
pushed N all the way into Wisconsin, and in the N especially, we are
seeing temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal."
A sampling of high temperatures from the past several days in places where
early June temperatures are often in the low 80s: Washington, 99 on Thu;
Indianapolis, 92 on Wed; St Louis, 97 on Mon; Richmond, 99 on Thu;
Minneapolis, 102 on Tue; Cincinnati, 96 on Thu; Detroit, 95 on Wed; Kansas
City, Mo, 96 on Mon; Philadelphia, 99 on Thu but it felt like 103; Baltimore,
103 on Thu; Milwaukee, 97 on Tue; and New York, 96 on Thu.
The weather has led to a number of heat-related deaths, mostly of elderly
people, in states including Maryland, Tennessee, Missouri and Wisconsin,
officials said.
For many people, it was not simply the heat -- or the humidity, for that
matter -- but the suddenness of the hot weather; in many areas, it seems that
spring has been abbreviated or skipped altogether.
"The heat came so quickly that people couldn't acclimate to it," said William
Snook, spokesman for the Kansas City, Mo, Health Department.
In some states, including Connecticut, where children were allowed to go home
early this week, school would not have been in session had it not been for
storms that shuttered schools for several days in Jan and Feb.
The people overwhelmed by swampy heat hardly needed a reminder, but many
places have had their weather come with a dose of superlatives of late. In
Indiana, the start of June has been the hottest on record for an early June
since 1942. In Nashville, there have been 11 consecutive days of temperatures
above 90 degrees -- a trend expected to continue for a few more days.
But for some people, there was a positive side to the brutal heat.
Tyrone West, 50, a cab dispatcher at Union Station in Washington, said people
tipped him better when it was hot. On Thu, he was sweating profusely and
seeking shade, but he had received several $20 tips.
"People get generous," he said as he smoked a cigar. "If you are in the line
and got your luggage, you'll be thankful."
In the Philadelphia suburb of Ambler, Pa, Evan Vernon, 25, was less lucky. He
was drenched in perspiration on Thu afternoon after having spent 4 and a 1/2
hours walking around town trying to sell credit card processing services to
local merchants. There was little he could do to avoid the heat except chat up
shop owners for as long as he could. "You just try to spend as much time
inside as you can," he said.
MYREF: 20110610180002 msg2011061013380
[218 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Kansas faces weather extremes: drought to deluge
[The second working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) is charged with estimating the impact of global warming on specific
regions of the world. Their summary report for policymakers (pdf), released in
Brussels today, predicts that "Drought-affected areas will likely increase in
extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in
frequency, will augment flood risk." In other words, droughts and floods will
get more severe in areas that are already prone to such disasters.
-- April 6, 2007].
John Milburn
The Associated Press
Jun 12, 2011 03:47 PM
Fort Leavenworth -- While extreme weather is a fact of life in Kansas, few y
have provided such a contrast between too much and too little water.
Much of western Kansas from the Colorado border to the middle part of the
state struggles through a prolonged drought that began more than a year
ago. Fields planted with wheat are faltering as spotty rains have provided
little to no moisture. Yields are likely to fall short of average.
In the eastern part of the state, communities are bracing for what forecasters
are expecting to be historic levels along the Missouri River caused by heavy
rains and snowmelt in Montana and the Dakotas. By next week, areas along the
river could see a crest of 27 to 33 feet, well above flood stage.
"The whole central region of the country is unique, that we are arid in the W
and we have the humidity and precipitation in the east," said Tracy Streeter,
director of the Kansas Water Office. "There's kind of a dividing line, and US
81 seems to be that dividing line."
Weather patterns for the past y have made those extremes more pronounced. The
National Weather Service says a La Nina over the Pacific Ocean has kept
western Kansas drier than normal, making the drought more
pronounced. Meanwhile, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has moved north,
causing rains over much of the Missouri and Mississippi river systems.
If the summer m are wet, as some models suggest, eastern Kansas could continue
to see adequate rains, which compounds the flooding. More water will cause
runoff, filling already full reservoirs along the Kansas River, a tributary of
the Missouri. With flood gates closed, Streeter said the lakes will rise and
cause localized flooding.
Communities along the Missouri have been forced to close their flood gates,
too. Angee Morgan, deputy director of the Kansas Division of Emergency
Management, said towns like Elwood could face flooding behind their levee if
heavy rains fall and the water can't be channeled to the river, as designed.
On the other extreme, Gov. Sam Brownback is seeking federal disaster
declaration for 46 counties affected by the drought. Conditions continue to
deteriorate across the southern portion of Kansas.
The roots of the Vulgamore family run deep in the Shallow Water area of
western Kansas. Brian Vulgamore, 35, and his family have been farming between
Scott City and Garden City for nearly 100 years.
Last week, Vulgamore was part of a water tour that included the rushing water
along the Kansas River, a sight seldom seen in the arid west. Vulgamore said
it would be nice to take some of the water back home.
"When you continuously see all this flooding going on, we realize that in
order to get our normal rainfall that we're going to have some severe weather
to get it," Vulgamore said. "That's a concern of mine."
Farmers in western Kansas will harvest a crop, but Vulgamore said the yields
won't be what they have been in the past. Some areas have had rain, but most
have had less than 1/2 of the normal amount over the past year. Watching the
radar and hearing the prospects for moisture is a blessing and curse when
storms fail to materialize.
"Psychologically, I think we would be better off not knowing," Vulgamore said.
Several 100 miles away, Sherman Army Airfield at Fort Leavenworth is nearly a
ghost town ahead of the rising water.
Crews waited until a jet carrying Army Chief of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey left
the field Fri morning before removing the final pieces of equipment, including
fire extinguishers and other gear.
The rest of the post, established in 1827, is on higher bluffs overlooking the
river and is unlikely to see any flooding affects. Trustees from the military
prisons will be sandbagging an area N of the runway where the levee meets the
railroad tracks. The area typically seeps water, which then travels S across
the airfield and begins collecting.
On Fri, crews moved aircraft out of the hangar, across railroad tracks and
onto higher ground. A gray line 12 feet high on the hangar walls indicate
where the water rose in 1993. Predictions are for the river to crest between
27 and 33 feet, which would flood the airfield again and get into the hangar.
"I guess we would need another shade of gray to mark that one," said Darren
Benson, airfield operations manager.
Tracy Streeter, director of the Kansas Water Office, said while communities in
the E are watching how much water comes down from the north, farmers out W are
watching how much water they pull from below to sustain withering crops. Much
of that region lacks the surface water to draw upon for irrigation and must
take it from aquifers.
Streeter said recent rains in northeast Kansas along the Kansas River have
compounded management ahead of the Missouri River's rise. The US Army Corps
of Engineers had planned to draw down water at 3 reservoirs, then shut off
releases to reduce the amount of water flowing in the Kansas River, a
tributary of the Missouri.
However, as those spillways close, recent heavy rains have pushed the levels
of Milford, Perry and Tuttle lakes as much as 10 feet above ideal
levels. Additional rain could force the closing of boat ramps, campgrounds and
other recreational levels.
"I hate to say that we don't want it to rain, but I hope we don't see any big
rains in the Kansas basin," Streeter said. "I don't think we are going to have
any opportunity to release from our reservoirs."
MYREF: 20110613173001 msg2011061324915
[219 more news items]
---
[On knowing your constituents:]
I always thought faremers were a gullible bunch!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 9 Feb 2011 12:09 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Is All the Wild Weather Connected?
Natalie Wolchover
Life's Little Mysteries
10 June 2011 Time: 10:55 PM ET
This has been a wild year, weather-wise.
In the winter, there was the record snowfall across the Northeast. Record
rainfall and floods in Ohio Valley followed in April and May. The Southwest
has been plagued by drought for months, while tornadoes have devastated the
Midwest and South. Record heat is scorching most of the country this wk --
just days after snow fell in Hawaii. Meteorologists predict a harrowing
hurricane season.
Is some underlying climactic condition driving these extreme weather events?
There are 2 potential candidates: The 1st is La Niña, trade winds that blow
through every 5 years, cooling the water of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and
shifting the jet stream northwest. The second is global warming, the
average worldwide temperature increase of 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit over the
past century that has resulted from the dramatic rise of CO2 levels in the atmos
phere.
La Niña and global warming are both partly responsible for some of the
episodes of wild weather, experts say. However, natural atmospheric
variability has also come into play this year; to some extent, the pile-on of
wild weather is random chance.
Drought here, floods there
According to Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist and chairman of the
climate variability research program at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), "Some aspects of the recent US climate anomalies,
for example, the Texas, Arizona and New Mexico drought, are likely linked to a
common factor: the cumulative effect of the prolonged La Niña event that has
lasted from summer 2010 until this spring."
"The impact of La Niña is also to generate wet Ohio Valley conditions in late
winter," Hoerling told Life's Little Mysteries, a sister site to
LiveScience. This year, however, the rains were heavier than in any prior
year, La-Niña-year or otherwise. "The extreme nature of these rains is beyond
what can be reconciled with La Niña alone."
Most NOAA researchers believe the extreme flooding is partially a result of
climate change induced by global warming. "The flooding and the heavy rainfall
are consistent with what we expect with global warming," said David
Easterling, chief of the Global Climate Applications Division at NOAA's
National Climatic Data Center. "Looking at some of the modern trends, we've
seen increases in the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, drawing a
direct link between what's happening in the Midwest and global warming."
On top of global warming and La Niña, natural weather variability is
undeniably playing a role, just as it does every year. "Natural atmospheric
variability almost certainly contributed significantly to these extreme
events," Hoerling wrote in an email. There have always been droughts and
floods, and while global warming and La Niña may have helped them along this
year, they may have hit hard regardless.
Heat everywhere
The nearly nationwide heat wave of the past wk was caused by what
meteorologists call a "high pressure ridge," a long strip of air that has
high atmospheric pressure, making it warm and dry. While such ridges come
about naturally, the record high temperatures this time around are linked to
global warming, experts say.
The average temperature of the Earth has shifted higher in recent years, and
that means the bell curve that represents the annual temperature variation has
shifted over as well. Along with the higher average temperature, you therefore
also get higher extremes. "An [average] warming of climate would indeed
increase the probability of extreme hot periods," Hoerling wrote.
Funnel storms
The link between global warming, La Niña and this year's violent tornadoes
is unclear. Some scientists speculate that La Niña did have an impact by dying
down earlier in the y than usual. "If La Niña had maintained its strength,
perhaps we wouldn't have seen so many tornadoes," Bill Patzert, a
climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, told
OurAmazingPlanet, a sister site to LiveScience.
The jet stream, an "atmospheric fence" where cool, dry air meets warm, moist
air, is usually pushed N by the La Niña trade winds in the spring, Patzert
explained. This year, La Niña's early departure left the jet stream draped
across the middle of the country, mixing cool, dry northern air with warm,
moist southern air in tornado alley -- a recipe for disaster.
Did global warming make the tornado season even worse? NOAA scientists have
been trying to figure that out; so far, they say, the evidence is inconclusive.
Thermodynamic instability, the condition that causes thunderstorms by forming
vertical clouds, combined with wind shear, which stabilizes the updraft and
causes it to rotate, are the "perfect storm" that leads to a funnel. Trends
associated with global warming do indeed amplify the 1st condition: Hotter
air holds more moisture, so global warming increases the likelihood of
vertical clouds forming. But you can't get tornadoes without wind shear, and
"the expectation is that there will be less of that wind shear with global
warming," Easterling said.
So with one tornado-conducive factor being increased and the other being
decreased, it's really hard to say how global warming affects tornado
activity. The scientists are still looking into it. "Inconclusive data does
not lead you to conclude that there's no evidence of a connection," Hoerling sai
d.
More extreme?
The scientists point out that there has always been extreme weather, and this
year's events aren't entirely caused by La Niña and climate change. "I don't
know whether climate has varied more extremely or not during recent decades,"
Hoerling wrote in an email.
Furthermore, "there is much more to extremes that just temperature and
precipitation. It's for example not clear how strong cyclones and their
associated wind speeds will change [due to climate change]. There has been no
evidence for a detected change in hurricanes or other violent wind storms.
Yet, there is an indication that heavy daily rain events have increased in
some regions during some seasons.
"In sum, there are many measures of extremes, and it's unclear if any
aggregate change in extremes has indeed occurred," Hoerling said.
MYREF: 20110614190002 msg20110614240
[219 more news items]
---
[In the search for credible quotes, "skeptics" can unknowingly promote
the views of scientists that actually accept AGW].
Well said Freeman!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 28 Feb 2011 16:35 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Preparedness agencies, forecasters organize extreme weather meeting in Chicago
Free to Public
AP
June 13, 2011 - 4:06 am
Chicago -- Tornadoes, floods and other extreme weather events are on the
agenda at a public meeting this wk in Chicago.
Participants include emergency response agencies and weather experts.
Attendees will hear tips on what to expect and how to prepare for extreme
weather this summer.
Wed's two-hour free event starts at noon at the Chicago Cultural Center.
Sponsors include Chicago's Office of Emergency Management and Communications,
the National Weather Service, the Federal Emergency Management Agency
officials and local television meteorologists.
Topics will include storm tracking and forecasting, severe weather emergency
response activities, and climate change.
Jose Santiago of Chicago's emergency management agency says the event "is
perfect" for young people and adults interested in science, environmental
issues and summer weather precautions.
MYREF: 20110615020001 msg2011061512550
[217 more news items]
---
[Assault on Vostok icecores:]
YOU are the one presenting the "evidence." Your evidence MUST be
performed using proven standards, not untested guesswork.
-- Michael Dobony <sur...@stopassaultnow.net>, 24 Feb 2011 19:49 -0600
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Warning: extreme weather ahead
Tornados, wildfires, droughts and floods were once seen as freak
conditions. But the environmental disasters now striking the world are
shocking signs of 'global weirding'
John Vidal
The Guardian
Mon 13 June 2011 19.59 BST
Drought zones have been declared across much of England and Wales, yet
Scotland has just registered its wettest-ever May. The warmest British spring
in 100 y followed one of the coldest UK winters in 300 years. June in London
has been colder than March. Feb was warm enough to strip on Snowdon, but last
Sat it snowed there.
Welcome to the climate rollercoaster, or what is being coined the "new normal"
of weather. What was, until quite recently, predictable, temperate, mild and
equable British weather, guaranteed to be warmish and wettish, ensuring green
lawns in August, now sees the seasons reversed and temperature and rainfall
records broken almost every year. When Kent receives as much rain (4mm) in
May as Timbuktu, Manchester has more sunshine than Marbella, and soils in
southern England are drier than those in Egypt, something is happening.
Sober government scientists at the centre for hydrology and ecology are openly
using words like "remarkable", "unprecedented" and "shocking" to describe the
recent physical state of Britain this year, but the extremes we are
experiencing in 2011 are nothing to the scale of what has been taking place
elsewhere recently.
Last year, more than 2m sq km of eastern Europe and Russia scorched. An extra
50k people died as temperatures stayed more than 6C above normal for many
weeks, crops were devastated and hunderds of giant wild fires broke out. The
price of wheat and other foods rose as 2 thirds of the continent experienced
its hottest summer in around 500 years.
This year, it's western Europe's turn for a mega-heatwave, with 16 countries,
including France, Switzerland and Germany (and Britain on the periphery),
experiencing extreme dryness. The blame is being out on El Niño and La Niña,
naturally occurring but poorly understood events that follow heating and
cooling of the Pacific ocean near the equator, bringing floods and droughts.
Vast areas of Europe have received less than 1/2 the rainfall they would
normally get in March, April and May, temperatures have been off the scale for
the time of year, nuclear power stations have been in danger of having to be
shut down because they need so much river water to cool them, and boats along
many of Europe's main rivers have been grounded because of low flows. In the
past week, the great European spring drought has broken in many places as
massive storms and flash floods have left the streets of Germany and France
running like rivers.
But for real extremes in 2011, look to Australia, China and the southern US
these past few months. In Queeensland, Australia, an area the size of Germany
and France was flooded in Dec and Jan in what was called the country's "worst
natural disaster". It cost the economy up to A$30bn (£19.5bn), devastated
livelihoods and is still being cleaned up.
In China, a "once-in-a-100-years" drought in southern and central regions has
this y dried up 100s of reservoirs, rivers and water courses, evaporating
drinking supplies and stirring up political tensions. The government responded
with a massive rain-making operation, firing 1000s of rockets to "seed" clouds
with silver iodide and other chemicals. It may have worked: for whatever
reason, the heavens opened last week, a record 30cm of rain fell in some
places in 24 hours, floods and mudslides killed 94 people, and tens of
thousands of people have lost their homes.
Meanwhile, N America's most deadly and destructive tornado season ever saw 600
"twisters" in April alone, and 138 people killed in Joplin, Missouri, by a
mile-wide whirlwind. Arizonans were this wk fighting some of the largest
wildfires they have known, and the greatest flood in recorded US history is
occurring along sections of the Missouri river. This is all taking place
during a deepening drought in Texas and other southern states - the eighth y
of "exceptional" drought there in the past 12 years.
"I don't know how much more we can take," says John Butcher, a peanut and
cotton farmer near Lubbock, Texas. "It's dry like we have never seen it
before. I don't remember anything like this. We may lose everything."
The impacts of extreme weather are greater in poorer countries, which this wk
are trying to secure a climate deal in the resumed talks in Bonn. In Mexico,
the temperature peaked at 48.8C (119.8F) in April, the warmest anywhere in the
world that month, and nearly 1/2 the country is now affected by drought. There
have already been 9k wildfires, and the biggest farm union says that more than
3.5 mn farmers are on the brink of bankruptcy because they cannot feed their
cattle or grow crops.
"We are being battered by the adverse impacts of climate change," says a
negotiator for the G77 group of developing countries who wants to remain
anonymous. "Frontline states face a double crunch of climate heat and
poverty. But the rich countries still will not give us the cash they promised
to adapt or reduce their emissions."
Wherever you look, the climate appears to be in overdrive, with stronger
weather patterns gripping large areas for longer and events veering between
extremes. Last year, according to US meteorologist Jeff Masters, who
co-founded leading climate tracker website Weather Underground, 17 countries
experienced record temperatures. Colombia, the Amazon basin, Peru, Cuba,
Kenya, Somalia and many other countries have all registered far more or less
rainfall or major heatwaves in the past few years, he says. Temperatures in
Bangladesh have been near record highs, leaving at least 26 people dead in the
past week; Kuwait has seen temperatures in excess of 50C and Rajasthan in
India 49.6C, while parts of Canada, including Toronto, have been sizzling at a
record 33C.
Rich countries may be more or less immune in the short term because the global
trading system guarantees food and access to electricity allows air
conditioning, but in parts of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, millions of people
this y have little or no food left after successive poor rainy seasons. Last
week, international aid agencies warned of an impending disaster.
Sceptics argue that there have always been droughts and floods, freak weather,
heatwaves and temperature extremes, but what concerns most climate scientists
and observers is that the extreme weather events are occurring more
frequently, their intensity is growing and the trends all suggest long-term
change as greenhouse gases steadily build in the atmosphere.
Killer droughts and heatwaves, deeper snowfalls, more widespread floods,
heavier rains, and temperature extremes are now the "new normal", says Nikhil
da Victoria Lobo of the giant insurance firm Swiss Re, which last m estimated
losses from natural disasters have risen from about $25bn a y in the 1980s to
$130bn a y today. "Globally, what we're seeing is more volatility," he says.
People in the most affected areas are certainly not waiting for climate
scientists to confirm climate change is happening before they adapt. In Nepal,
where the rain is heavier than before, flat roofs are giving way to pitched
roofs, and villagers in the drought-prone Andes are building reservoirs and
changing crops to survive.
New analysis of natural disasters in 140 countries shows that climate is
becoming more extreme. Last month, Oxfam reported that while the number of
"geo-physical" disasters - such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions - has
remained more or less constant, those caused by flooding and storms have
increased from around 133 a y in 1980s to more than 350 a y now.
"It is abundantly clear that weather-related disasters have been increasing in
some of the world's poorest countries and this increase cannot be explained
fully by better ways of counting them," says Steve Jennings, the report's
author. "Whichever way you look at the figures, there is a significant rise in
the number of weather-related disasters. They have been increasing and are
set to get worse as climate change further intensifies natural hazards.
"I think that global 'weirding' is the best way to describe what we're
seeing. We are used to certain conditions and there's a lot going on these
days that is not what we're used to, that is outside our current frame of
reference," says climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University.
New trends have been emerging for a decade or more, says the UN's World
Meteorological Organisation (WMO). "In Europe, a clear trend is emerging
towards drier springs. This year's drought follows exceptionally dry y in
2007, 2009 and 2010," says a spokesman.
While no scientist will blame climate change for any specific weather event,
many argue that these phenomena are textbook examples of the kind of impact
that can be expected in a warming world. Natural events, such as La Niña and
El Niño, are now being exacerbated by the background warming of the world,
they say.
"It is almost impossible for us to pinpoint specific events . . . and say they
were caused by climate change," says William Chameides, atmospheric scientist
at Duke University, who was vice-chair of a US government-funded national
research council study on the climate options for the US which reported last
month. "On the other hand, we do know that because of climate change those
kinds of events will very, very likely become more common, more frequent, more
intense. So what we can say is that these kinds of events that we are seeing
are consistent with climate change."
He is backed strongly in Europe. "We have to get accustomed to such extreme
weather conditions, as climate change intensifies," says Friedrich-Wilhelm
Gerstengarbe, assistant director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research in Germany. "Heavy storms and inundations will happen in northern
Germany twice or 3 times as frequently as in the past."
"We've always had El Niños and natural variability, but the background which
is now operating is different. [La Niña and El Niño] are now happening in a
hotter world [which means more moisture in the atmosphere]," David Jones, head
of climate monitoring and prediction at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
in Melbourne told Reuters after the Queeensland floods.
David Barriopedro, a researcher at Lisbon University's Instituto Dom Luiz,
last m compared last year's European heatwave with the one that struck in 2003
and calculated that the probability of a European summer experiencing a
"mega-heatwave" will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 y
if the warming trends continue. "This kind of event will become more common,"
he says. "Mega-heatwaves are going to be more frequent and more intense in the
future."
But there may be some respite coming from extreme weather because the El
Niño/La Niña episodes are now fading fast, according to the WMO. "The weather
pattern, blamed for extremely heavy downpours in Australia, southeast Asia and
S America over late 2010 and early 2011, is unlikely to redevelop in the
middle of 2011," it advises. "Looking ahead beyond mid-year 2011, there are
currently no clear indications for enhanced risk of El Niño or La Niña in the
second 1/2 of the year"
The WMO concludes, tentatively, that global weather will now return to
something approaching normal. The trouble is, no one is too sure what normal
is any more.
MYREF: 20110615030001 msg2011061522402
[215 more news items]
---
Another problem that has to be taken seriously is a slow rise of sea level
which could become catastrophic if it continues to accelerate. We have
accurate measurements of sea level going back 200 years. We observe a
steady rise from 1800 to the present, with an acceleration during the last
50 years. It is widely believed that the recent acceleration is due to
human activities, since it coincides in time with the rapid increase of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere.
-- Freeman Dyson, "Many Colored Glass: Reflections on the Place of Life in the
Professor Freeman Dyson, World Renowned "Heir To Einstein" Physicist
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 27 Feb 2011 12:50 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
2011 already among most extreme weather years
Herald-Tribune
Wed, June 15, 2011 at 7:56 p.m.
After a winter of blizzards and a spring of tornadoes, floods and drought,
this y already ranks as one of the most extreme on record.
With summer and fall yet to unfold, climate scientists see no signs of calmer
weather to come.
"We're not even into the active hurricane season yet," said Tom Karl, director
of the National Climactic Data Center, during a media teleconference Wed.
Predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration point to
a busier-than-normal hurricane season, ongoing drought in the southwest and
persistent rain in the northern part of the nation.
Halfway through the year, 2011 already ranks second for the number of natural
disasters costing more than $1 bn each. There have been 8 such events so
far this year, a record eclipsed only by 2008.
In total, disasters have cost $32 bn this year, and counting, Karl said. Loss
of life also ranks high, particularly from a rash of devastating tornadoes
that swept across the Midwest, southern states and Massachusetts.
Preliminary counts put the tornado death toll this y at 536, making this y the
sixth-deadliest on record so far. All of the other top 10 deadliest tornadoes
and tornado y occurred before 1960.
The tornado death toll, when calculated per 1 mn people, is on par with the
average annual tornado death toll before 1925, when weather forecasters could
not warn people as well as today.
It takes an extraordinary tornado y today to cause so much loss of life,
experts said.
"These are the kinds of y that happen on rare occasions and hopefully won't
happen again for a very long time," said Harold Brooks, meteorologist with the
National Severe Storms Laboratory.
Overall, the weather is trending toward an increase in $bn
disasters and greater disaster costs over time, Karl said.
The question is whether extreme events are becoming more common or whether
more infrastructure is in harm's way, Karl said.
Since the 1980s, extreme events, such as drought, record rainfall, tornadoes
and hurricanes, have increased. But when climate scientists look back to the
early 1900s, they see a similar uptick in extreme weather. Most extremes in
the early 1990s were caused by drought.
It is difficult for climate scientists to definitively link human activity and
increases in extreme weather, but the whole weather system is interconnected,
Karl said.
"Extremes of precipitation are generally increasing because the planet is
actually warming and more water is evaporating from the oceans," Karl said.
Warmer global temperatures can lead to more floods and more drought because a
warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. As moisture builds without falling out
as rain, drought develops until a blast of cooler air or some other trigger
throws the rain switch. When the switch gets flipped, a deluge can ensue
because the atmosphere has much more moisture to dump.
Where rain falls depends on the steering currents in the atmosphere and can
leave some areas parched while others flood.
Soil moisture readings across the US demonstrate that disparity. All of the
nation's southeastern states, and Texas, have soil moisture reading that rank
among the lowest ever, about 1 to 10% of normal. Soil moisture in the
northeast ranks in the 90th to 99th percentile.
The drastic difference in soil moisture could lead to even more bad weather,
said Ed O'Lenic, operation's branch chief for the Climate Prediction Center.
Wet soils create cooler air masses and dry soils create warmer air
masses. Side by side, the difference results in a more turbulent atmosphere
that can trigger thunderstorms and strong winds.
MYREF: 20110617033002 msg2011061727500
[215 more news items]
---
The claimed consensus views of hundreds of climate change "scientists" are
fundamentally erroneous.
[Bonzo has elsewhere claimed the germ theory of disease is an "erroneous
consensus view"].
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 19 Jan 2011 15:29 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Weather records, and Americans, battered by spring
Randolph E. Schmid
AP/BusinessWeek
June 16, 2011, 8:36AM ET
Washington -- It was a spring to remember, with America pummeled by tornadoes,
floods, wildfire, snowmelt, thunderstorms and drought.
Government weather researchers said Wed that, while similar extremes have
occurred throughout modern American history, never before have they occurred
in a single month.
The last time anything remotely looked like it was the spring of 1927, which
also had a lot of tornadoes and flooding, said Harold Brooks of the Storm
Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.
The tornado outbreak, floods and drought during April were comparable to
extreme events in the past, but never so close together, agreed Deke Arndt,
chief of the climate monitoring branch at the National Climatic Data Center in
Asheville, N.C..
The preliminary tornado count was 875 for April, and even after duplicates are
eliminated the final total is expected to approach the single-month record of
542 set in May, 2003, Tom Karl, director of the climatic data center, said at
a briefing.
The tornado death toll for the y is 536 so far, Brooks said, making 2011 the
6th deadliest y on record. That may still rise somewhat, he added, though
typically most annual tornado deaths occur by mid-June.
The researchers explained that April brought an active weather pattern across
the 48 contiguous U.S., with strong storms moving through the center of the
country, tapping into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as they matured across
the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Contributing to the thrashing were the La Nina conditions in the Pacific
Ocean, unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the
increase of moisture in the atmosphere caused by the warming climate.
But Karl cautioned against focusing on any single cause for the unusual chain
of events, "clearly these things interconnect."
Nonetheless, April lived up to poet T. S. Eliot's description as the cruelest
month, and March and May contributed to the battering in the 3 m of
climatological spring.
The tally included:
-- Heavy snowmelt in the upper Midwest combined with record rains in the Ohio
River Valley produced floods along the lower Mississippi River equaling or
surpassing the historic floods of 1927 and 1937.
-- Ideal wildfire conditions developed across the southern plains as rainfall
encouraged rapid plant growth, followed by drought and hot weather to launch
still-burning fires consuming millions of acres.
-- Consecutive dry m caused drought that extends across much of the Southwest
and S from Arizona and New Mexico across Texas to the Gulf Coast and southern Ge
orgia.
-- Yet it was the wettest April on record for Illinois, Indiana, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Kentucky and W Virginia.
So far this y the United States has suffered 8 disasters costing $1 bn or more
and the total damage to date is $32 bn and rising, Karl said. If no more
disasters occurred, 2011 would still rank in the top 25% of y for disaster
costs, he said.
La Nina is marked by a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean and has now
returned to more normal conditions. However, when it is under way it sets up a
storm weather track that brings storms into the upper Midwest and then S into
Ohio Valley. This resulted in the extremely thick snowpack in some areas that
contributed to the spring flooding and also brought dry, windy conditions to
the southern Plains.
The spring warming then brought the warm, moist southerly flow of air in from
the Gulf of Mexico, contributing energy to the storms that developed into the
outbreaks of tornadoes and other severe storms.
Years with more tornado deaths than 2011 were:
--1925, with 794.
--1936, with 552.
--1917, with 551.
--1927, with 540.
--1896, with 537.
MYREF: 20110618173001 msg201106185413
[219 more news items]
---
This ***global warming**** appears to be HIGHLY LOCALISED!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 5 Feb 2011 21:59 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
June sets records for temperature
Chalk Lubbock up as record-hot in June, and temperatures near triple digits
likely will produce a hotter-than-average summer, forecasters say.
June 17, 2011 - 11:34pm
The 1st 1/2 of the m goes down as the hottest on record in the Hub City, with
Lubbock's average day-and-night temperatures reaching 84.1 degrees, more than
a degree higher than the previous record set in 2008, according to the
National Weather Service here.
Already, the red line on the thermometer has hit 100 and higher 12 days this
month, compared to an average of 9 100-plus degree days a y since 1914,
said Mark Conder, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Lubbock.
Take comfort. This year's tally of 100-plus degree days remains lower than the
record 29 days in 1934.
Blame last winter's strong Pacific La Nina cycle for the combination of
dryness and above-average temperatures responsible for the lingering heat wave
in the Hub City and S Plains, Conder said.
"Until we can get some decent rain and greening up, we'll probably continue
seeing high temperatures," he said.
Much of W Texas, including Lubbock, should see above-average temperatures and
average precipitation accumulations through September, according to the
National Climate Prediction Center.
Averaging temperatures doesn't bring down the misery factor. This month's 99.2
degree average as of Thu stands more than 8 degrees above the usual June
average of 90.8 degrees.
And don't look for relief in July and August. July registers an average of
92.6 degrees and the August average comes in at 91.2 degrees, Conder said.
The traditional high pressure build-up over the Southeastern United States in
July and August could bring Lubbock fewer days of extreme heat. The high
pressure usually pumps in moist air from the northern Gulf of Mexico through
the region.
"And more moisture produces less of a temperature range," Conder said.
But for today, expect a high of 105. On Sun, the high should reach 102 with a
cool front pushing through the area Mon to lower the high temperature to 99
degrees and to 97 degrees Tue.
MYREF: 20110620220002 msg201106209293
[220 more news items]
---
[To Bonzo:]
Where do you even get the time for this parade of regurgitation? Paid
by the post from some Exxon/Mobil scheme? I actually wouldn't doubt
that. It takes work to match the Oznob level of mindless repetition.
Tiny classified ad at http://adelaide.craigslist.com.au that changed
Bonzo's life:
"Don't miss this work at home opportunity, mate! Disinfo jockey needed
for environmental topic on the Internet's oldest forum system. Paid by
character typed. Some pasting allowed. Must not repeat same paragraph
more than once a fortnight. Experience writing porn novellas
preferred. Must have experience with anagrams."
-- Enough Already, 24 Nov 2008
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
SW Montana experiencing record setting spring weather
Mike Heard
KXLF [Butte, Montana]
Jun 17, 2011 2:18 PM
According to the National Weather Service in Great Falls, SW Montana E of
the Divide is setting records, in the top 10, for the coolest and wettest
mid-May to mid-June time period.
Bozeman's average temperature was 51.8 degrees for mid-May to mid-June is the
5th coolest on record. Precipitation for the same period was 4.13" and that is
the eighth wettest on record.
Dillon is more impressive. The average temperature from mid-May to mid-June
was 49.4 degrees and that is the second coolest on record. Precipitation
measured 4.02" for the same time period and that is the 4th wettest on record.
Dillon is also setting record for the past 60 days, mid-April to
mid-June. Average temperature 45.4 degrees and that is the coolest on
record. Precipitation for the same 60 days measured 5.26" and that falls
within the top 10 as the ninth wettest on record.
The 90-day trend for Dillon is also impressive with an average temperature of
42.4 degrees which falls in the 4th coolest category. Precipitation measured
6.05" and that is the 8th wettest on record.
The National Climate Prediction Center updated the 30-day forecast for July
today and Montana is expected to continue to follow the current trend, cooler
than normal with near to above normal precipitation. Western and SW Montana
should see near normal precipitation, however, the far E and NE counties are
likely to see a 30% to 40% chance for above normal precipitation.
Temperatures for all of Montana has a 30% chance to be below normal with a 40%
chance of cooler than normal temperatures for eastern and NE Montana.
The only good news about a cooler and wetter than normal July forecast is that
the fire season will be short lived or we may not have a bad fire season at
all this year.
MYREF: 20110621080002 msg2011062117158
[217 more news items]
---
[Yasi is "the worst cyclone" to hit Qld:]
CORRECTION: The worst cyclone in history was the cat 5 Mahina in 1899.
[Bzzt! Thank you, come again!]
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 3 Feb 2011 15:12 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Damages From This Year's 8 Extreme Weather Events Already Total $32 Billion
Yeshiva World
Sat, June 18th, 2011
(Source: Washington Post)
Through mid-June 2011, an unprecedented 8 extreme weather events have become
billion-dollar disasters in the US according to the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). No other y on record (since 1980) has
experienced this many such disasters year-to-date.
In fact, the only other y with more bn dollar weather events is 2008, which
had 9 but over 12 m (compared to 8 over 6 m this year) . If the 2011
were to end today, it would rank second in terms of the number of extreme
weather events in the last 31 years.
NOAA reports damages from this onslaught of disasters have totaled nearly $32
billion. The average cost-to-date (through mid-June) is less than $6 bn.
At a press briefing on this year's extreme weather Wed, Tom Karl, director of
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, said only 7 entire y in the record
have produced more economic damage than 2011 (about 1/2 way done).
Historically, many of the costliest bn dollar weather disasters in the United
States have occurred during hurricane season, which peaks in August and Sept.
Here's is a compilation of these record setting events accompanied by
descriptions, reproduced in full from NOAA's Natonal Climatic Data Center:
1) `Groundhog Day Blizzard' Jan 29-Feb 3. Large winter storm impacting many
central, eastern and northeastern states. The city of Chicago was brought to a
virtual standstill as between 1 and 2 feet of snow fell over the area. Insured
losses >$1.1 billion; total losses (e.g., insurance, state and local snow
removal, business interruption) >$3.9 billion; 36 deaths.
2) Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes April 4-5. Outbreak of tornadoes over central
and southern states (KS,MO,IA,IL,WI,KY,GA,TN,NC,SC) with an estimated 46
tornadoes. Over $1.4 bn insured losses; total losses >$2.0 billion; 9 deaths.
3) Southeast/Midwest Tornadoes April 8-11. Outbreak of tornadoes over central
and southern states (NC,SC,TN,AL,TX,OK,KS,IA,WI) with an estimated 59
tornadoes. Over $1.5 bn insured losses; total losses >$2.2 billion; numerous
injuries, no known deaths.
4) Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes April 14-16. Outbreak of tornadoes over central
and southern states (OK,TX,AR,MS,AL,GA,NC,SC,VA,PA) with an estimated 160
tornadoes. Despite the large overall number of tornadoes, few were classified
as intense, with just 14 EF-3, and no EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes identified. A
total of 38 people were killed from the tornadoes, 22 of which were in N
Carolina. Over $1.7 bn insured losses; total losses >$2.0 billion; 38 deaths.
5) Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes April 25-30. Outbreak of tornadoes
over central and southern states (AL,AR,LA,MS,GA,TN,VA,KY,IL,MO,OH,TX,OK) with
an estimated 305 tornadoes and 320 deaths. Of those fatalities, 235 occurred
in Alabama. The deadliest tornado of the outbreak, an EF-5, hit northern
Alabama, killing 78 people. Several major metropolitan areas were directly
impacted by strong tornadoes including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Huntsville
in Alabama and Chattanooga, Tennessee, causing the estimated damage costs to
soar. Insured losses likely >$5.0 billion, yet this is still being
accounted. Insurance catastrophe modeler AIR estimated insured losses ranging
$3.7-5.5 billion. Total losses may approach $10.0 billion; 320 deaths.
6) Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes May 22-27. Outbreak of tornadoes over central
and southern states (AL,AR,LA,MS,GA,TN,VA,KY,IL,MO,OH,TX,OK) with an estimated
180 tornadoes and 172 deaths. Notably, an EF-5 tornado struck Joplin, MO
resulting in at least 141 deaths making it the deadliest single tornado to
strike the US since modern tornado record keeping began in 1950. Insured
losses still being accounted & are unavailable. Insurance catastrophe modeler
EQECAT estimates insured losses in Joplin alone ranges from $1.0-3.0
billion. Modeler AIR estimates insured losses for the full May 22-27 event may
total $4.0-7.0 billion. Total losses may exceed $7.0 billion; 172 deaths.
7) Texas Drought & Wildfires Spring-Summer 2011. During March and April,
drought and wildfires were the main headline across the Texas, New Mexico, and
western Oklahoma. Fighting/suppression costs are ~$1 mn / day; total
losses to agriculture and cattle are estimated to range between $1.5-3.0
billion. This cost estimate reflects losses as of 16 June, and will likely
rise as the event continues.
8) Mississippi River flooding Spring-Summer 2011. Estimated economic loss
ranges from $2.0-4.0 billion. Below are more detailed stats, which are
preliminary, as the event continues to unfold (as of 6/16):
$500 mn to agriculture in Arkansas
$320 mn in damage to Memphis, Tennessee
$800 mn to agriculture in Mississippi
$317 mn to agriculture and property in Missouri's Birds Point-New Madrid Spillwa
y
$80 mn for the 1st 30 days of flood fighting efforts in Louisiana
MYREF: 20110621183001 msg2011062119396
[229 more news items]
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Wild weather lashes NSW, Victoria, ACT and SA [Australia]
Falls creek snow fall
Temperatures across the southern states are expected to drop to -4C in places,
as the low deepens and snow is expected to fall well into Wed.
As a cold front moves through Sydney, the wind was enough to knock a
Cockatoo's comb off at Narrabeen.
thetelegraph.com.au
June 21, 2011
Snow and gale force winds are causing havoc in New S Wales, S Australia
and Victoria, leaving 1000s of homes without power.
Police in the state's Central W are urging motorists to take extreme care with
snow and ice covering major roadways across the region.
Heavy snow has been falling in the Bathurst, Orange, Blayney, Oberon, Mudgee
and Cowra areas today.
Emergency services have already responded to numerous traffic crashes and
police are advising motorists to slow down and exercise extra caution.
The Great Western Highway has been closed in both directions between Bathurst
and Lithgow due to heavy snowfall.
Powerful northwest winds as a result of a strong cold front moved through New
S Wales during the day.
Destructive winds averaging 60 km/h with peak gusts around 125 km/h were
forecast for parts of New S Wales, including Illawarra, Hunter Valley, Mid N
Coast and Sydney
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.
12.47pm
Roads have been closed around Canberra as weather worsens, reports The
Canberra Times.
The city's predicted maximum temperature for the day was reached by 9am this
morning and then proceeded to fall as conditions deteriorate.
11.55am The wild weather might be creating havoc across most of S eastern
Australia but the nation's ski resorts are loving the cold conditions, Falls
Creek lift operators Amy Michelon 21 and Zac Mattschoss (with shovel) 30, with
skier Chris Myers 23, look forward to the forecast blizzards at the resort tonig
ht.
10.55am Wind gusts of up to 72 km/h have also been recorded at Canberra
Airport . Strong north-westerly winds hit the city ahead of a strong cold
front today.
The weather forced federal MPs to abandon a Parliament House ritual - the
outdoor doorstop in the Senate courtyard.
10.12am While the wild winds and cold conditions are set to leave most of
Melbourne and Victoria shivering, it's been a windfall for snow bunnies with
Falls Creek receiving a large dump overnight with up to 40cm expected to fall
over the coming days.
9.53am
More than 1300 homes in S Australia still without power. Police are warning
motorists of hazardous driving conditions. Dozens of trees are blocking roads.
"The SES is advising motorists to avoid driving unless it is absolutely
necessary... drivers should be aware of Emergency Service workers and never
drive through floodwaters."
9.27am The full blast of gale force winds and blizzard conditions is still to
hit metropolitan Melbourne.
Bureau of Meteorology's Kevin Parkyn predicted today will be particularly cold
and blustery.
"This is likely to be the most significant wind event we've seen in about 12
months, since about June last year."
He said it will struggle to reach 10 degrees in many parts of the state and
hail and thunder were forecast also.
9.14am Extreme weather warning has been cancelled in SA. But SES crews are
still mopping up after minor flooding and trees brought down overnight.
They were called to about 200 jobs in the suburbs of Millicent, Kingscote,
Victor Harbor, Robe, Mt Gambier, Kingston and Adelaide.
7.42am Metropolitan Melbourne has been spared the gale force winds. But it
will still be bitterly cold - temperatures will hover around 13 degrees with a
risk of hail and thunder.
Winds peaked at 90 km an hour in Frankston. Alpine areas had gusts of up to
135 km an hour.
7.35am The storms are not the only thing to affect Victoria and South
Australia. Volcanic ash cloud from Chile is causing major disruptions to flights
.
7.11am The SES says occupants of a house in Warrnambool in southwest Victoria
were forced to find emergency accommodation when the roof was blown off.
Exposed areas of Melbourne such as bayside Frankston and Emerald in the
Dandenongs have so far been spared extensive damage.
The SES says it's answered around 300 calls for help in the last 24 hours
while the weather bureau says the gales will hit areas across Victoria's
southwest, northeast, N central, Wimmera, and west, E and S Gippsland regions.
6.00am Almost 10k properties were without power.
ETSA crews are working to restore power at Chain Of Ponds, Cudlee Creek,
Inglewood, Kersbrook, Millbrook, and Mount Crawford. Large parts of Tanunda,
Andrews Farm and Davoren Park were also without power. The stormy weather also
cut power to homes throughout the Adelaide Hills, the northern suburbs and the
Barossa Valley.
SES workers had responded to almost a 100 weather-related callouts across S
Australia by 10.30pm. 55 of these were in the state's southeast while 25 were
in the Adelaide Hills or Adelaide metro area.
The majority of the callouts were either fallen trees, minor flooding or roof
damage. Several powerlines have also fallen to the ground.
Dozens of trees are blocking roads in the area, especially S of Penola, after
being ripped from the ground by the strong winds.
3.00am A S Australian State Emergency Service Spokeswoman said workers were
remaining on "high alert" as they battle to remove hazards from roadways.
"The SES is advising motorists to avoid driving unless it is absolutely
necessary... drivers should be aware of Emergency Service workers and never
drive through floodwaters."
12.00am A significant cold front near the Lower Eyre Peninsula and Kangaroo
Island swept northwestward across central and eastern SA reaching Adelaide by 9p
m.
Wind speeds averaging 50-65 km/h with gusts in excess of 90 km/h, had hit near
the coast and over higher ground.
Adelaide, Port Lincoln, Kingscote, Maitland, Victor Harbor, Keith and Mount
Gambier were all hit by the storm.
The strong winds had earlier brought down trees and branches on many roads,
including the Dukes and Riddoch Highways, prompting police to warn motorists
in the S E of the State to take extreme caution.
11.54pm Drivers are being warned to slow down on the roads as the wild weather
begins to lash S Australia.
"Please slow down to allow extra time to spot hazards and debris on
roads. Allow plenty of room between your vehicle and the car in front and
arrive at your destination safely. Be aware of the many SES/CFS volunteers and
council workers working tonight helping clear roads." - Police
11.30pm The Bureau of Meteorology says the gales will hit parts of Victoria's
southwest, northeast, N central, Wimmera, and west, E and S Gippsland regions.
"This is likely to be the most significant wind event we've seen in about 12
months, since about June last year." - Senior forecaster Kevin Parkyn.
The cold front will be accompanied by rain and 10mm is expected to fall across
the state. Looks like tomorrow will be a particularly cold and blustery,
wintry day. It will struggle to reach 10 degrees in many parts of the state
and hail and thunder on the forecast as well.
The bureau is warning sheep graziers of a high risk of losses of lambs and
sheep exposed to such conditions.
For more on the storms and severe weather in S Australia go to AdvelaideNow.
MYREF: 20110622073002 msg2011062214188
[225 more news items]
---
>Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?
Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
After severe spring, a thin line separates wet from dry in the US
Andrew Freedman
The Washington Post
11:20 AM ET, 06/20/2011
When it comes to weather, there's a general notion that an extreme event in
one location will be "balanced out" by an opposite, extreme event in another
location. So if there's a flood in the Mid-Atlantic, then at the same time you
might expect a drought to be occurring on the W Coast of the US, or halfway
around the world. And this drought might be connected to the flood in some way.
The interconnected nature of earth's climate system is starkly evident right
now, as much of the Southern US experiences worsening drought conditions and
wildfires, while much of the northern tier continues to reel from flooding and
severe weather events.
In fact, I'm not sure I've ever seen such a prominent contrast between the
precipitation "haves" and the "have-nots." For perspective, all you'd need to
do to travel from parched conditions to sopping wet ground would be to take a
flight of less than 2 hours, such as from Austin to Little Rock, or New
Orleans to Indianapolis.
The statistics, most of which Jason highlighted in a post last wk , are startlin
g.
March to May was the wettest such period on record in 10 northern states,
spanning from Washington to Vermont. The Ohio Valley received 300 100% of its
normal amount of precipitation from March to May, and 1,300 daily
precipitation records were broken across the Midwest and South. An impressive
72 locations reported their wettest day on record for any April, and 5 set
all-time daily rainfall records for any month.
All of this rain led the Mississippi River to overflow its banks, flooding 6.8
mn acres of land. The flooding is estimated to have cost at least $2 to $3 bn
in insured losses.
Right now, major flooding is occurring in the Upper Missouri River Basin, fed
by above average rainfall and melting snowpack from the Upper Midwest and
northern Rocky Mountain states.
At the same time as the northern tier of the country has been submerged,
states from New Mexico to Florida have been suffering from varying degrees of
drought. It was the driest March to May on record in Texas. In El Paso, Texas,
it didn't rain at all for 110 days, a record dry stretch that ended on May
24th. "Extreme" to "exceptional" drought conditions are prevalent in Arizona,
New Mexico, and Texas, with severe drought conditions also popping up along
the Gulf of Mexico.
Wildfires have burned about 4.3 bn acres so far this year, mainly in Arizona,
New Mexico, and Texas, with a record amount of land going up in smoke in April a
lone.
According to NCDC, Texas ranchers have lost $1.2 bn because their pastures
have not greened, and livestock losses may top $1 bn because of shortages
in water and feed for cattle.
It's not an accident that there is such juxtaposition between droughts and
floods this year. The prevailing weather pattern throughout the winter and
spring, which was influenced by La Nina conditions that finally dissipated
earlier this month, steered storms away from the Southwest, and doused the
northern states with snow and rain. Also, precipitation extremes are already
increasing as the climate warms, as NCDC director Tom Karl pointed out in a
media call last week.
"Extremes of precipitation are generally increasing because the planet is
actually warming, and more water is evaporating from the oceans," he said,
adding that this "enables rain and snow events to become more extensive and
intense [than they otherwise would be]."
Increased instances of drought, and more severe droughts are expected as the
climate warms, but Karl said that scientists have not yet detected manmade
trends emerging out of the historical record of US drought conditions.
MYREF: 20110622083002 msg2011062225220
[223 more news items]
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Yes, 2011 has had unusually extreme weather, NOAA says
seatlepi.com
Jun 20 2011
This y is one of the most extreme weather y on record, according to the US
government, and scientists are pointing to climate change as a driving factor.
We're not quite halfway through 2011 and we have already seen devastating
tornadoes, droughts, wildfires and floods across the country. Damages have
already exceeded $32 billion, according to the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, and the hurricane season has yet to ramp up.
It makes our weather in Seattle - I believe the current m is June-uary,
correct? - seem mild in comparison. Sure, we complain about the weather, but
mainly because of its lack of extremeness.
For the most part, in the US, extreme weather events have gotten more and
more frequent since the 1980s, and climate change is at least partly to blame,
said Tom Karl, director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, according to
a report in Scientific American. Here's more from the report:
Warmer temperatures provide more energy and water in the atmosphere to feed
storms, (climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe) said, noting evidence that heavy
precipitation events are becoming more frequent in some parts of the globe.
But not everyone is convinced. Bill Patzert, a climate scientist at NASA's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory, says he believes that climate change is real, but "it's
too simple an answer to say there is more moisture in the atmosphere, so
storms are more violent."
"Sometimes we have a quiet year, and sometimes Mother Nature just blasts us,"
he said.
More obvious influences on this year's wild weather, experts said, were La
Ni�a and an unusual blast of cold Arctic air that reached as far S as the
central United States last winter.
As far as the the N and the west, NOAA blamed our unusually wet weather on
Arctic air that has dipped farther S than normal. Some researchers suggest
this is caused by a decline of sea ice in the Arctic, Scientific American report
s.
Read more about this year's extreme weather at ScientificAmerican.com.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=noaa-makes-2011-most-extreme-we
ather-year
MYREF: 20110622210002 msg2011062210890
[221 more news items]
---
[T]he United States has less than a century left of its turn as top
nation. Since the modern nation-state was invented around the year 1500, a
succession of countries have taken turns at being top nation, first Spain,
then France, Britain, America. Each turn lasted about 150 years. Ours began in
1920, so it should end about 2070.
-- Freeman Dyson, "Many Colored Glass: Reflections on the Place of Life in the
Universe", 2007.
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
June rain breaks records and plans across the Bay Area
Doug Jastrow
Contra Costa Times
06/04/2011 08:16:03 PM PDT
Baby goats, bunny rabbits and other furry petting zoo animals seemed like such
a good idea for Amanda Sills' joint son-daughter birthday party this month.
Toddler attendees could play with the potbellied pigs Sat and splash in the
Sills family's Moraga pool to cool down.
And then the spring of 2011 hit.
As rain pelted the pool, the petting zoo company canceled because the weather
would spook the animals.
Like many other E Bay residents, the Sills family had to improvise this wet
weekend. They hired James the Entertainer off Craigslist to make balloon
animals inside their dry house for 4-year-old Lucas and 1-year-old Ava's 70
party guests.
"My son was crying but now he's smiling and screaming around the house," Sills s
aid.
Records broke as raindrops fell Sat, with some long-standing rainfall
measurements blown away before noon as a deep low-pressure weather system
swept in from the Gulf of Alaska. The resulting precipitation came at a time
when outdoor festivals, graduations and pool parties were a part of many
people's weekend plans.
By 11 am, rainfall levels in downtown Oakland and San Francisco, which are
measured each hour, had shattered records. More than 1 inch of rain fell in
Oakland, beating the previous high of 0.10 inches, according to Bob Benjamin,
a National Weather Service forecaster.
Measurements for other cities are tracked over a 24-hour period so Benjamin
said those amounts would not be available until Sun. But he said the records
don't stand a chance.
"All will come toppling down," Benjamin said.
Art patrons in Oakland splashed through the puddles to attend the E Bay
Open Studios event, where more than 400 artists in 14 E Bay cities opened
their studios to the public.
Attendance was definitely down Sat, according to program coordinator Jackie
Im, but as the clouds began to break up by the afternoon she said the art
lovers began to return.
Vendors at the Art and Wine Festival at Walnut Creek's Heather Farm Park who
chose to pitch their tents and sell their wares had their pick of spots on the
park's fields because many decided to skip the event.
Customers, on the other hand, were hard to come by.
Evone Wilson, co-owner of Hats 'n' More, drove from Oroville to work at the
festival but had yet to recoup her costs. She said people tend to buy hats
when the sun is shining. When it's raining, they stick to umbrellas.
"We've hardly made any money at all, not today. But maybe tomorrow," Wilson said
.
The weather is expected to normalize in the coming days with less rain and
higher temperatures, according to forecasts. Sat's brunt of moisture is
expected to move S into Monterey County by Sun and farther S by Mon, according
to Benjamin.
Scientists are poring over data, trying to explain the odd weather.
"It's what I call global weirding," said Bill Patzert, a climatologist at
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. "This has been a very strange y
all over the planet."
What's going on?
First of all, this spring's weather is not unprecedented, just
uncommon. California has had wet, cold spring weather before, notably in 1983,
a y that produced record Sierra snows.
This year, the blame falls on a complex interaction between La Ni�a and
another phenomenon called a negative Arctic oscillation, Patzert and others said
.
La Ni�a is marked by a cooling of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean --
the opposite of El Ni�o. In the past, this pattern means an equal chance of
wet or dry weather.
What made this y so wet was the negative Arctic oscillation.
Typical conditions make the Arctic colder than the mid-latitudes, which
include the United States and Europe. This is a positive oscillation.
Negative conditions flip this around, making the Arctic warmer than usual and
pushing cold air and a vigorous jet stream down into the United States and Europ
e.
One theory gaining traction is that climate change, in fact, might be to blame.
The theory was developed in several published papers by Judah Cohen, an
atmospheric scientist in Massachusetts.
Colder and snowier winters caused by global warming? It may be one of the
counterintuitive consequences of climate change, he said.
"We don't understand everything, and we don't understand how the different
feedbacks affect different parts of the climate system," said Cohen, director
of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, a private
firm in Lexington, Mass. "It's very complicated. So we should expect the unexpec
ted."
Just ask Amanda Sills: "As soon as the last party guest left, the sun came out."
MYREF: 20110622223001 msg2011062215938
[219 more news items]
---
"Global warming" refers to the global-average temperature increase
that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more. But to
many politicians and the public, the term carries the implication that
mankind is responsible for that warming.
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming", 2008
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
City in N Dakota Braces for Flooding
Timothy Williams
NY Times
June 22, 2011
The mayor of Minot, N.D., told residents Wed morning to pack up their
belongings as quickly as possible and head to high ground ahead of record
floodwaters that are expected to break through [36]levees and engulf much of
the city sometime Wed.
The Souris River had not been expected to top Minot's protective levees until
later this week, but Mayor Curt Zimbelman told residents Wed morning that the
city's dikes would not be able to hold back the river beyond Wed afternoon.
"It is imminent that the flood sirens will be sounding in the City of
Minot. People should gather the final items that they want to take and
evacuate the evacuation zones," said a message posted on the [37]city's Web
site Wed morning.
Minot had given about 11k residents in low-lying areas -- more than a quarter
of its population -- until 10 p.m. Wed to leave their homes, but has moved
that deadline up by several hours.
"They are virtually certain that the levee system is going to be overtopped
and there's nothing they can do about it," said Pat Slattery, a spokesman with
the National Weather Service.
Patrick Moes, a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers in Minot, said that
although the flooding of Minot and neighboring Burlington appeared to be
imminent, officials were seeking to buy as much time as possible.
"We're still trying to shore up the levees in both Minot and Burlington to
allow enough time for residents to evacuate in a safe and orderly fashion," he
said. "I would project that the levee in Minot would overtop some time this afte
rnoon."
The record flooding is occurring because the basin in which Minot is located
has received about 200% more rainfall than usual during the past 2 months,
officials said. As a result, 3 reservoirs in Canada that have filled with rain
water have been forced to release water into the Souris River.
The Souris, now at the major flood stage level of 1,555 feet, is projected to
surpass the record of 1,558 feet on Thu or Fri, officials said. That record
was set Jan. 1, 1881. The river is expected to reach 1,560 feet by Mon.
"A flood is coming," Mr Moes said. "We are trying to manage this flow to
prevent the risk to human life as best as possible."
MYREF: 20110623040947 msg20110623229
[219 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Firefighters battle extreme weather
Sasha Horne
June 23, 2011
Greenville, N.C.- Every day is different but on average Station 1 in
Greenville responds to nearly 20 calls a day.
Within just 2 minutes- they're out the door, responding to both EMS and fire
calls.And the sweltering temperatures make it harder for them to do an already
stressful job.
"After we've had a crew that exited the structure during a situation, we want
to get them out of their gear, we want to make sure they're getting that body
temperature down get that hot gear off of them," said Fire Chief Brock
Davenport.
The protective gear they wear weighs about 40 pounds. Mix that with 90
temperatures and the heat from the flames, and you can only imagine the type
of training and stamina necessary to do this job"
Davenport says they promote fitness in the workplace. Putting emphasis on
core strength, not just pumping iron. He says stamina is key.
Fitness, proper hydration and teamwork is essential in this line of work.
But Davenport says it's something else, something inside that keeps them
motivated.
"We get to interact with people when they are having the worst part of the
moment of their lives but we also get to be a part of people's very emotional
and good times in their life, we get to see babies born. So there is so much
reward in what we do," Davenport said.
MYREF: 20110624160001 msg2011062412938
[219 more news items]
---
So you really, really believe that our universe just came about by
sheer chance? I prersonally, find that extremely hard to accept.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 11 Jan 2011 15:02 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Fri's high a record
Amarillo Globe-News
June 25, 2011 2:59 am
The Panhandle, a place famed for extreme weather, never saw it quite like Fri,
when the blistering heat set an all-time record.
Temperatures in Amarillo soared to 109 at 4:35 p.m., breaking the mark of 108,
reached 4 times since the National Weather Service began keeping records in 1892
.
Borger was even hotter at 110, topping its all-time high of 107 set in 1980.
The battle to keep cool triggered still another record. Xcel Energy recorded
peak usage of 5,755 megawatts, breaking the mark of 5,616 set June 16,
spokesman Wes Reeves said.
No relief is in sight. The weather service forecast highs of 105 today and 104 S
un.
A large ridge of high pressure has sparked the latest heat wave, said Sarah
Johnson, a meteorologist for the weather service in Amarillo.
The development is typical of this time of year, but the duration this time is
different, she said.
"The ridge has been here for about a week," she said. "It's being pretty stubbor
n."
Fri was the 13th time this y temperatures reached 100 or higher in
Amarillo. The record for the most days in triple digits is 26 in 1953.
Remarkably, the y began with historic chill - temperatures plunged to minus 6
on Feb. 10 and minus 5 on Feb. 3, record lows for those dates.
Dry air has driven the wide swings in temperatures, Johnson said.
Without moisture in the atmosphere, the air warms up and cools down much
faster, she said.
There's no explaining record cold in Feb and record heat in June, Johnson said.
"This is just an abnormal weather pattern," she said.
Along with the extreme temperatures, Amarillo has endured a drought that
threatens to break still more records. Just 0.68 inch of precipitation has
been recorded this year, 8.11 inches below the average and the driest start to
a y for Amarillo on record.
"It has been exceptionally dry here for any year," Johnson said.
<http://amarillo.com/news/local-news/2011-06-25/fridays-high-record>
MYREF: 20110625183002 msg201106253451
[221 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Minot braces for more rain as river nears crest
John Flesher and Dave Kolpack
Houston Chronicle/AP
June 25, 2011, 2:37AM
Minot, ND -- With a threat of still more rain looming, Minot was bracing Sat
for the Souris River to cascade past its already unprecedented level and widen
a path of destruction that had severely damaged 1000s of homes and threatened
many others.
City officials were expecting the river to peak as early as Sat evening at
some 8 1/2 feet beyond major flood stage and remain there for several days,
straining the city's levees to the limit and overwhelming some of
them. Forecasters said there was at least an even chance of additional storms
in coming days.
"A rain event right now would change everything. That's the scariest," Mayor
Curt Zimbelman said.
After a flyover Fri, officials estimated at least 2,500 homes had been swamped
and predicted the number would rise to 4,500 by the time the river crests. At
least 2 schools, a nursing home and 100s of businesses also were endangered,
Zimbelman said.
More than a quarter of Minot's 40k residents evacuated earlier this week,
packing any belongings they hoped to save into cars, trucks and trailers.
Fed by heavy rains upstream and dam releases that have accelerated in recent
days, the Souris surged past a 130-year-old record Fri and kept going. The
river was more than 5 feet above major flood stage Fri afternoon.
The predicted crest was lowered a foot based on new modeling by the National
Weather Service, but it was little consolation in Minot, where Gov. Jack
Dalrymple said frantic efforts to keep the floodwaters at bay soon would give
way to a daunting recovery challenge.
"The stress of this incident is going to build up very quickly," he said.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency pledged assistance to flood victims in
Burleigh and Ward counties, which include Minot and Bismarck, the state
capital, which has been damaged by Missouri River flooding. Sens. Kent Conrad
and John Hoeven and Rep. Rick Berg had pushed for the aid in a call to
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and said they hoped it would be
extended to other flood-ravaged counties.
As they had the past 2 days, emergency officials focused on protecting water
and sewer systems to avoid the need for more evacuations. They were confident
about the water system, but a little less so about the sewer treatment
plant. It had been sandbagged as high as possible.
Zimbelman said water coming up through a storm sewer briefly began to erode
one downtown levee before it was controlled.
Also of concern was the Broadway Bridge, a key north-south route. Levees
protecting the northern approach were being raised, but Army Corps of
Engineers Lt. Col. Kendall Bergmann said it was touch and go. The levee work
also protected the campus of nearby Minot State University.
Hoeven said a helicopter flight over the Souris valley showed damage to
smaller cities nearby. He estimated more than 5k homes in the valley would
eventually have water damage, including those in Minot and Burlington, where
officials gave up sandbagging Thu. The Army Corps of Engineers was leading an
effort to build emergency levees in Velva, a small town about 20 miles
downstream of Minot, before the Souris crests there Tue.
In Burlington, deputy auditor Cindy Bader estimated Fri that more than 1/2 of
the town's 1k residents had left to escape the rising Souris River.
Burlington's city hall, school and police and fire departments appeared safe,
but some homes in the evacuation zone had water up to their 1st floors and highe
r.
In one neighborhood, the tops of 2 traffic signs barely peeked above the
brown, brackish water, which reached just beneath the eaves of 2 nearby houses.
Wayne Walter, a Burlington city councilman and truck driver for a snack food
company, said residents were stunned by the river's rapid rise. Just a
trickle of water had slipped over the dikes Thu night, but by the next morning
"everything was gone," he said.
The National Guard had 870 members activated for the crisis. Minot is best
known as home to an Air Force base, which oversees 150 Minuteman III missiles
in underground launch silos scattered over 8,500 mi2 in northwest N Dakota.
Col SL Davis, commander of the 91st Missile Wing, said there was some
"localized flooding" at a handful of missiles sites because of the wet spring
and summer. But he said the silos are designed to safely handle some water and
protective measures were taken at a few sites similar to what's done in
preparation for spring runoff from snowmelt.
The US Fish and Wildlife Service launched 4 boats to patrol flooded
neighborhoods and respond to 911 calls. No injuries were reported. The
evacuation zone was empty except for emergency officials and some geese, who
paddled in about 5 feet of water washing down the streets.
George Moe, 63, whose house was about a block from the water's edge, returned
briefly Fri to pick up some keys. Moe said the only thing left in his house
was the mounted head of an antelope shot by his wife, who died about 3 y ago.
Moe worried about the home he's lived in for 4 decades and the shop where he
works as a mechanic; it was taking on water and he wasn't sure he'd have a job
after the flood.
"I hate to see something go to hell after 40 years," he said. "There ain't
much you can do."
MYREF: 20110625200001 msg2011062513867
[220 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Father's Day is a weather record breaker
ABC 4
6/19 11:07 pm
Salt Lake City (ABC 4 News) -The National Weather Service says today is
officially the last full day of spring and some would argue it felt more like
the first, especially those trying to celebrate Fathers Day with their
dads. In fact, it was record breaking.
"I was planning on going on a mountain bike ride but yeah, I woke up and it
was raining all day." Matt Ohran says he was forced to move his special day indo
ors.
Larry Dunn, a National Weather Service Meteorologist, says all of that rain
broke several records. "It's the wettest Father's Day that we can find on
record. The old record was .47 in 1947, and we've had 1.09 as of about 3
p.m. this afternoon. It's the wettest June 19 on record."
It was also colder than normal, which is why Nathan Orgain and his family
canceled outdoor concert plans. We found them at the Gateway Theater
instead. "Since the kids were going to go with us we decided to call it in and
go to Kung Fu Panda instead."
They weren't the only ones. Utah theaters reported brisk temperatures, lead to
brisk business. Steve Weiser, concession supervisor said the crowds indoors
were impressive. "The rain probably took away from backyard barbeques and
everything, but it was good for business."
Amber Combes canceled plans with her family at zoo. She says it didn't dampen
spirits. "It's all about family and being together."
<http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_9_0_t&bvm=grid&topic=blende
d&usg=AFQjCNE_rKOlytwBR3sUcRRXRFn0b5puIg&did=c097d4a610125f5e&sig2=n85e48aaUjxBJ
CyyHe5XIA&cid=8797714318827&ei=VXP_TYDcC8n1lAX3osvZAQ&rt=HOMEPAGE&vm=STANDARD&ur
l=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc4.com%2Fcontent%2Fnews%2Fslc%2Fstory%2FFathers-Day-is-a-we
ather-record-breaker%2FWGW1Fj2c9kij95HBhlpfJg.cspx>
MYREF: 20110626003001 msg2011062616531
[219 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Yes, 2011 has had unusually extreme weather, NOAA says
This y is one of the most extreme weather y on record, according to the US
government, and scientists are pointing to climate change as a driving factor.
Seattle's Big Blog
Jun 25 2011
We're not quite halfway through 2011 and we have already seen devastating
tornadoes, droughts, wildfires and floods across the country. Damages have
already exceeded $32 billion, according to the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, and the hurricane season has yet to ramp up.
It makes our weather in Seattle - I believe the current m is June-uary,
correct? - seem mild in comparison. Sure, we complain about the weather, but
mainly because of its lack of extremeness.
For the most part, in the U.S., extreme weather events have gotten more and
more frequent since the 1980s, and climate change is at least partly to blame,
said Tom Karl, director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, according to
a report in Scientific American.
Here's more from the report:
Warmer temperatures provide more energy and water in the atmosphere to feed
storms, (climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe) said, noting evidence that heavy
precipitation events are becoming more frequent in some parts of the globe.
But not everyone is convinced. Bill Patzert, a climate scientist at NASA's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory, says he believes that climate change is real, but "it's
too simple an answer to say there is more moisture in the atmosphere, so
storms are more violent."
"Sometimes we have a quiet year, and sometimes Mother Nature just blasts us,"
he said.
More obvious influences on this year's wild weather, experts said, were La
Ni�a and an unusual blast of cold Arctic air that reached as far S as the
central United States last winter.
As far as the the N and the west, NOAA blamed our unusually wet weather on
Arctic air that has dipped farther S than normal. Some researchers suggest
this is caused by a decline of sea ice in the Arctic, Scientific American report
s.
Read more about this year's extreme weather at ScientificAmerican.com.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=noaa-makes-2011-most-extreme-we
ather-year
MYREF: 20110627023001 msg2011062711423
[221 more news items]
---
Scientists [and kooks] are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
have no tolerance for ambiguity.
It proves that all science is lies and the only thing we can trust is
right wing rhetoric.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100
CORRECTION:
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Temperature records broken across Panhandle
Amarillo Globe-News
June 26, 2011 8:23 pm
Amarillo reached a record-high temperature of 111 today, according to the
National Weather Service. The old record of 109 stood for only 2 days,
having been set Fri. The previous high for this date was 107, set in 1990 and
matched in 1998.
Borger set an all-time-high of 113, smashing the old record of 108 set on Fri
as well.
Dalhart recorded an record-high temperature of 110. The previous record was
108, also set on Fri.
The region should enjoy a modest respite from extreme temperatures Mon. A cool
front is forecast to move in from the N and should reach Amarillo by late Mon
afternoon. High temperatures are expected to be in the 90s throughout the
region Mon.
The weather service has included a chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms in Mon's forecasts. The Northern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
have a 30% chance for showers or storms Mon evening, while Amarillo and the
southern Texas Panhandle have a 20% chance. Some of the storms could be
severe, with large hail and damaging winds.
<http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_9_0_t&bvm=grid&topic=blende
d&usg=AFQjCNGqMWfazevQWnL-Gn-dbD33l0zIdg&did=84eea3b24c42fe58&sig2=EaibnelEGVLQd
zMxcY9mkg&cid=0&ei=uNkHTrifJ8n1lAXy8o34Aw&rt=HOMEPAGE&vm=STANDARD&url=http%3A%2F
%2Famarillo.com%2Fnews%2Flatest-news%2F2011-06-26%2Frecord-temperatures-falling-
across-panhandle>
MYREF: 20110627163002 msg2011062725226
[224 more news items]
---
>Remember who you're talking to. :)
>The guy quotes Dyson without knowing Dyson accepts AGW;
Dyson accepts AGW???
News to me!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], Mar 2 16:10 EST 2011
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Weather Dominates the Head Lines at Record Entry Round the Island Race
Mon 27 June 2011
[Isle of Wight]
After a day dominated by the weather which threw everything it had to offer at
the record-breaking fleet that competed in Sat's 80th Anniversary JP Morgan
Asset Management Round the Island Race, the last of the 1900+ yachts home,
Pendragon of Dartmouth, a Jeanneau Sun Fizz 40, made it across the finish line
a mere 3 seconds before the line closed officially at 2200hrs, bagging
themselves the 'Tenacity Trophy' at today's Prizegiving at the Island Sailing Cl
ub.
Some 16k sailors faced wind speeds of up to 28 knots and there were huge
swells to contend with off the Needles and at St. Catherine's as the
record-breaking fleet of 1,900 yachts undertook this most famous 50 nautical
mile westabout Island circumnavigation on Sat. A number of incidents were
reported to the Coastguard, including 'Man Overboard' reports and capsizes as
well as dismastings. There was a lot of sail damage across the fleet that
ranged from high tech racers through to many smaller boats competing. However,
a spokesman for the Race Management team at the Island Sailing Club, stressed
that some of these incident reports were not attributable to the Race and were
involving spectator boats rather than competitors.
Dave Atkinson, Assistant Principal Race Officer of the day said, "It was a
successful race for the Island Sailing Club and we have received many
compliments on running a great but challenging event. We're looking forward to
welcoming competitors in 2012 for another record-breaking year."
Thousands of weary but generally happy sailors returned to Cowes and the
marinas along the S Coast of England from mid afternoon yesterday, all feeling
justifiably proud of their immense achievement in getting round the Island
safely in tough conditions for even the most experienced and hardened sailor.
Nick Rogers, who usually sails a 470 with partner Chris Grube, helmed the
Contessa 26 Sundowner to victory at the JP Morgan Asset Management Round the
Island Race.
Line Honours went to French skipper Lionel Lemonchois and his 50ft multihull
Prince de Bretagne who were 1st to cross the finish line in 3hrs 49m and 58s.
The final number of boats to cross the finish line in Cowes was 1,302 and
there were 438 retirements and 16 DSQ (disqualified) and/or OCS (on course side)
.
The Race has become progressively more high profile as enhanced technology and
communications has helped spread the scale and excitement of the Race farther
and more widely around the globe. On Race Day, the total number of page
impressions on the Race website amounted to 393k which is 100k up on 2010's
site visitors. The Race Viewer, allowing online spectators to track boats of
their choice, was downloaded by over 32k people. The interactive Race Progress
Blog produced by the Media Centre and Race Control attracted 17,762 visitors
over the course of twelve hours with appreciative comments coming in from as
far away as Australia, the Philippines, Mexico and the US.
The Island Sailing Club look forward to welcoming everyone to next year's Race
taking place on Sat 30th June.
MYREF: 20110627173001 msg2011062713592
[223 more news items]
---
[Even-number day of week:]
What feedbacks?
Oh ... you mean those mythical feedbacks in GIGO computer models.
Yeah right.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 11 May 2011 10:39 +1000
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Oklahoma City poised to set triple-digit temperature record for June
Elsewhere in Oklahoma, Hollis and Erick had high temperatures of 115 degrees
Sun. There were 16 Mesonet stations Sun in the western Oklahoma or the
Oklahoma Panhandle reaching or topping 110 degrees.
Bryan Painter
Oklahoman
June 27, 2011
Record-tying June heat is possible Mon in [136]Oklahoma City.
PHOTO: This NOAA satellite image taken Sun, June 26, 2011 at 01:45 PM EDT
shows scattered cloud cover over the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains
with more widespread cloud cover over the Upper Midwest. A cold front crosses
N Dakota with low pressure while a stationary front extends across S
Dakota. Energy from these systems kick up rain showers and thunderstorms
throughout the eastern Dakotas and parts of Nebraska. There is a moderate risk
of severe weather development in southeastern S Dakota, eastern Nebraska,
western Iowa, far northeastern Kansas, and northwestern Missouri. The main
concerns with these storms are tornadoes damaging wind, and hail.
Meanwhile, a slight risk of severe weather exists from portions of the
Northern and Central Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valleys to the Gulf
Coast States. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms develop near a stationary
front in parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and the Central
Appalachians. To the south, scattered rain showers continue in Florida and
areas of Georgia, while temperatures continue to heat up in the S from the
Southwest through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Various Heat Advisories and
Excessive Heat Watches remain in effect from southern Arizona through southern
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
PHOTO: Clusters of showers and thunderstorms develop near a stationary front
in parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and the Central
Appalachians. To the south, scattered rain showers continue in Florida and
areas of Georgia, while temperatures continue to heat up in the S from the
Southwest through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Various Heat Advisories and
Excessive Heat Watches remain in effect from southern Arizona through southern
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
MYREF: 20110628003001 msg2011062818801
[222 more news items]
---
[Non-performance. BONZO posted a dozen quotes before "discovering"
Freeman Dyson accepted man-made climate change as real]
>Dyson accepts AGW.
Huh?
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], Mar 1 16:00 EST 2011
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Extreme heat breaks Tulsa record
Quantcast
Jun 27 2011
Tulsa's temperature reached triple-digits on Mon for the 1st time in 2011 and,
at 106 degrees, far surpassed the previous record.
Tulsa National Weather Service meteorologist Craig Sullivan said Tulsa has had
only one day so far in June not reach the 90s, nearing records for the m set
in 1911 and 1934.
Sullivan said an upper level ridge pattern pushed the jet stream into the
northern states, which also pushed Tulsa's season ahead of schedule.
"We went into the summer pattern early," Sullivan said. "This is usually more
of what happens in July and August."
Another Tulsa weather issue is ahead of normal pace: heat-related patient
calls, said EMSA public information officer Kelli Bruer.
In June 2010, Tulsa had 55 heat-related calls, 12 where patients were in
serious or critical condition. By noon Mon, Tulsa had 61 heat-related calls so
far this month, also with 12 patients in serious or critical condition, Bruer sa
id.
Between midnight Sun night and 8 p.m. Mon, EMSA paramedics responded to 10
people with heat-related illnesses. Of those, 7 were taken to hospitals,
Bruer reported.
"The best medicine is to stay indoors, stay out of those elements, especially
during the hottest part of the day," she said. "Hydrate, hydrate, hydrate, and
take breaks if you can't stay out of it altogether."
Bruer said it may surprise people to know that it is often middle-aged people
who have heat-related illnesses.
"People tend to think it's the elderly that would have the biggest problem,"
she said. "People tend to think they're healthy, and it gets the better of them.
"
Oklahoma City is also experiencing above-normal temperatures, tying two
records for June. The high reached 103 degrees Mon at Will Rogers World
Airport - tying for the most triple-digit June highs in Oklahoma City, at
nine. That equals the number of days at or above 100 degrees in June
1933. Those records date back to 1896.
In addition, Mon marked the 27th day Oklahoma City has reached or exceeded 90
degrees this month. That tied a 100-year-old record. Sullivan said that
considering Tulsa's record snowfall and colder temperatures in Feb and
below-normal precipitation these past few months, it's hard to classify
Tulsa's 2011, except for one word. "The theme of the weather this past y
seems to be 'extreme,' " he said. "There's so much variability in weather, you
can't really tie it to one thing."
By the numbers
106: High temperature record broken Mon, the hottest June 27 in
Tulsa. Record previously set at 102 in multiple years.
103: High temperature record tied Mon, the hottest June 27 for
Oklahoma City. Record tied with 1994.
9: Tied Mon, the most triple-digit days in June for Oklahoma City,
tied with 1933.
27: Tied Mon, the most days reaching 90 degrees in June for Oklahoma
City, tied with 1911.
26: The number of days Tulsa reached 90 degrees this month, which may
tie 1911 and 1934 records for June (29 days).
Note: Temperatures are in degrees Fahrenheit. Oklahoma City records
date back to 1896. Tulsa records date back to 1882.
Source: National Weather Service
MYREF: 20110629073002 msg2011062913819
[224 more news items]
---
[It's not "land" warming -- it's just "ocean" warming!]
QUOTE: Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has
occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather
than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases over land.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 14 Dec 2010 10:35 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Storm Warnings: Extreme Weather Is a Product of Climate Change
More violent and frequent storms, once merely a prediction of climate models,
are now a matter of observation. Part 1 of a three-part series
John Carey
Scientific American
June 28, 2011
In N Dakota the waters kept rising. Swollen by more than a m of record rains
in Saskatchewan, the Souris River topped its all time record high, set back in
1881. The floodwaters poured into Minot, N Dakota's fourth-largest city,
and spread across 1000s of acres of farms and forests. More than 12k people
were forced to evacuate. Many lost their homes to the floodwaters.
Yet the disaster unfolding in N Dakota might be bringing even bigger headlines
if such extreme events hadn't suddenly seemed more common. In this y alone
massive blizzards have struck the US Northeast, tornadoes have ripped
through the nation, mighty rivers like the Mississippi and Missouri have
flowed over their banks, and floodwaters have covered huge swaths of Australia
as well as displaced more than 5 mn people in China and [105]devastated
Colombia. And this year's natural disasters follow on the heels of a
staggering litany of extreme weather in 2010, from record floods in Nashville,
Tenn., and Pakistan, to Russia's crippling heat wave.
These patterns have caught the attention of scientists at the National
Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., part of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). They've been following the recent deluges'
stunning radar pictures and growing rainfall totals with concern and intense
interest. Normally, floods of the magnitude now being seen in N Dakota and
elsewhere around the world are expected to happen only once in 100 years. But
one of the predictions of climate change models is that extreme
weather--floods, heat waves, droughts, even blizzards--will become far more
common. "Big rain events and higher overnight lows are 2 things we would
expect with [a] warming world," says Deke Arndt, chief of the center's Climate
Monitoring Branch. Arndt's group had already documented a stunning rise in
overnight low temperatures across the US So are the floods and spate of other
recent extreme events also examples of predictions turned into cold, hard realit
y?
Increasingly, the answer is yes. Scientists used to say, cautiously, that
extreme weather events were "consistent" with the predictions of climate
change. No more. "Now we can make the statement that particular events would
not have happened the same way without global warming," says Kevin Trenberth,
head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR) in Boulder, Colo.
That's a profound change--the difference between predicting something and
actually seeing it happen. The reason is simple: The signal of climate change
is emerging from the "noise"--the huge amount of natural variability in weather.
Extreme signals
There are 2 key lines of evidence. First, it's not just that we've become more
aware of disasters like N Dakota or last year's Nashville flood, which caused
$13 bn in damage, or the massive 2010 summer monsoon in Pakistan that killed
1,500 people and left 20 mn more homeless. The data show that the number of
such events is rising. Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance
companies, has compiled the world's most comprehensive database of natural
disasters, reaching all the way back to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in
A.D. 79. Researchers at the company, which obviously has a keen financial
interest in trends that increase insurance risks, add 700 to 1k natural
catastrophes to the database each year, explains Mark Bove, senior research
meteorologist in Munich Re's catastrophe risk management office in Princeton,
N.J. The data indicate a small increase in geologic events like earthquakes
since 1980 because of better reporting. But the increase in the number of
climate disasters is far larger. "Our figures indicate a trend towards an
increase in extreme weather events that can only be fully explained by climate
change," says Peter H�ppe, head of Munich Re's Geo Risks Research/Corporate
Climate Center: "It's as if the weather machine had changed up a gear.
MYREF: 20110629080557 msg2011062910187
[223 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[sour grapes from the coal lobby]
US counts the cost of extreme weather
Sheila McNulty
Financial Times
June 28, 2011 6:59 pm
Midland -- Firefighters on Tue battled a wildfire that threatened a government
nuclear facility in New Mexico, raising fears about the safety of radioactive
materials at the Los Alamos National Laboratory.
On Mon, a spot fire at the laboratory was quickly contained and officials said
that no contaminated material was released. Only essential employees have been
allowed on to the property.
<http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_5_0_t&bvm=grid&topic=blende
d&usg=AFQjCNGiMUCm5jg-gRO0ZSeez9qnJbI5ag&did=a5ad80c39408e278&sig2=ds8hSNqSSASZg
oT0SKg8Cw&cid=0&ei=rk8KTuiGKsn1lAXy8o34Aw&rt=HOMEPAGE&vm=STANDARD&url=http%3A%2F
%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F68f407de-a1ac-11e0-b9f9-00144feabdc0.html>
MYREF: 20110629103002 msg2011062923171
[221 more news items]
---
[Why Are Republicans Climate Skeptics?]
Maybe that's because the Republicans come from more rural states that haven't
had any warming, man-made or otherwise.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 28 Oct 2010 15:25 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[sour grapes from the coal lobby]
Ellis County fire burns as temperature ties record high
Aman Batheja
Star-Telegram.com
Sat, Jun 18, 2011
Related:
East Texas wildfire spreads over 15k acres
A house was destroyed and several others damaged Sat by a fire in the Ellis
County town of Glenn Heights, the Department of Public Safety said. More than
150 people were evacuated and a helicopter airlifted 2 firefighters who had
heat exhaustion.
More than 200 acres were blackened by wildfires in Dallas and Ellis counties,
DPS senior Cpl Robert White said. Smoke affected visibility to the point
where authorities closed Interstate 35E for more than 45 minutes, he said.
Meanwhile, temperatures soared to 104 degrees at Dallas/Fort Worth Airport,
making Sat the hottest day of 2011 and tying a record for June 18 set in 1918,
said meteorologist Dennis Cavanaugh of the Fort Worth office of the National
Weather Service. Meacham Airport recorded 105 degrees.
By 7:30 pm, 80% of the Ellis grass fire was contained, and some residents in
Glenn Heights and Red Oak were being allowed to return home, White said.
The worst-hit area was Gateway Estates, a neighborhood in southern Glenn
Heights, White said. The cause of the fire was not immediately known, and
officials are investigating, he said. Glenn Heights is about 38 miles
southeast of Fort Worth.
About 175 firefighters with 40 vehicles from several area departments
responded to the blazes, White said. The evacuated firefighters, taken to
Charlton Methodist Medical Center in Dallas, belong to the DeSoto and Ferris
departments, he said. One was treated and released late Sat, and the other was
expected to follow.
The hot, dry conditions prompted a red-flag warning -- for extreme fire danger
-- from noon till 9 p.m. Sat, the weather service said. It forecast a high of
101 today, 100 Mon and 98 Tue.
MYREF: 20110629150001 msg2011062925096
[223 more news items]
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[I am Luddite!]
You whackos just keep changing your "predictions" to suit reality!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 16 Feb 2011 15:57 +1100
No Consensus
"Mr Posting Robot" <ro...@kymhorsell.dyndns.org> wrote in message
news:4e0ab161$0$3033$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
>
> BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>>[sour grapes from the coal lobby]
>
> Ellis County fire burns as temperature ties record high
>
> Aman Batheja
> Star-Telegram.com
> Sat, Jun 18, 2011
>
> Related:
> East Texas wildfire spreads over 15k acres
>
> A house was destroyed and several others damaged Sat by a fire in the
> Ellis
> County town of Glenn Heights, the Department of Public Safety said. More
> than
> 150 people were evacuated and a helicopter airlifted 2 firefighters who
> had
> heat exhaustion.
>
> More than 200 acres were blackened by wildfires in Dallas and Ellis
> counties,
> DPS senior Cpl Robert White said. Smoke affected visibility to the point
> where authorities closed Interstate 35E for more than 45 minutes, he said.
>
> Meanwhile, temperatures soared to 104 degrees at Dallas/Fort Worth
> Airport,
> making Sat the hottest day of 2011 and tying a record for June 18 set in
> 1918,
So?
No hotter than 1918?
Where's the warming then?
Warmest Regards
B0nz0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author
"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics
"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."
Bertrand Russell
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[sour grapes from the coal lobby]
Oklahoma City ties 3 temperature records Mon
Bryan Painter
June 28, 2011
In one day, Oklahoma City tied 2 temperature records for the m of June and
tied a record for June 27.
The high reached 103 degrees Mon at Will Rogers World Airport, tying the most
triple-digit June highs in the city at nine. That equals the number of days at
or above 100 degrees in June 1933. The records date to 1896.
In addition, Mon marked the 27th day Oklahoma City has reached or exceeded 90
degrees this month. That tied a 100-year-old record.
Although the forecast is for a high of 95 degrees Tue in Oklahoma City, triple
digits are expected to return Wed, which would break the record.
The 103 degrees Mon also tied the record for the warmest high temperature for
June 27 in Oklahoma City, matching the high that date in 1994.
High temperatures Mon in the state included 110 degrees at Walters in southern
Oklahoma. In Tulsa, a high of 104 degrees set a record for June 27 in
Tulsa. The previous record high was 102 degrees in 1936, 1956 and 1980.
Precautions urged
The American Red Cross has several suggestions for staying safe in extreme
heat. Listen to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather
radio for critical updates from the National Weather Service. Never leave
children or pets alone in enclosed vehicles. And stay hydrated by drinking
plenty of fluids even if you do not feel thirsty.
People are encouraged to eat small meals and eat more often, and they should
wear loose-fitting, lightweight, light-colored clothing.
Adjust your daily routine if possible to stay indoors and avoid strenuous
exercise during the hottest part of the day. Take frequent breaks if you must
work outdoors.
The Red Cross also encourages Oklahomans to check on family, friends and
neighbors who do not have air-conditioning, who spend much of their time alone
or who are more likely to be affected by the heat.
Doug Paulsen, supervisor at the Woodson Park Senior Activity Center, said the
program schedule doesn't necessarily change in the summer, but he does tend to
see people occasionally coming by in the afternoons. It's not that their homes
aren't cool but rather that it's an air-conditioned center where they can
gather with friends.
"There are just some folks who want to get out and come over and see people in
a cool spot," he said.
The Red Cross also recommends checking on animals frequently to ensure they
are not suffering from the heat.
Looking ahead
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Tue, mainly across S central and
southeast Oklahoma. Better chances for thunderstorms Tue night will be across
N central Oklahoma as a front lifts to the north.
Exceptional drought across western Oklahoma will elevate the risk of wildfires
on very hot and windy days.
Temperatures are expected to increase again by Wed and continue into the
Fourth of July weekend.
Also, a clean air alert has been issued by the Oklahoma Department of
Environmental Quality for Tue for the Oklahoma City metro area due to expected
high concentrations of ozone.
People with existing heart or respiratory ailments should reduce physical
exertion and outdoor activity, according to information from the Department of
Environmental Quality.
The public is encouraged to help alleviate the problem by reducing vehicle
miles traveled by riding the bus, carpooling or avoiding unnecessary trips.
The public also is asked to avoid refueling during the morning and early
afternoon hours and avoid the use of two-cycle engines such as lawn mowers,
motorcycles, lawn trimmers and outboard engines.
MYREF: 20110629171502 msg201106296250
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Mr Posting Robot
Coal Lobby wrote:
> "Mr Posting Robot" <ro...@kymhorsell.dyndns.org> wrote in message
> news:4e0ab161$0$3033$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> No hotter than 1918?
> Where's the warming then?
World still warming up, researchers warn
AP/Boston Globe
June 29, 2011
Washington -- The world's climate is not only continuing to warm, it's adding
heat-trapping greenhouse gases faster, researchers said yesterday.
The global temperature has been warmer than the 20th century average every m
for more than 25 years, they said at a teleconference.
"The indicators show unequivocally that the world continues to warm," Thomas
R. Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center, said in releasing the
annual State of the Climate report for 2010.
"There is a clear and unmistakable signal from the top of the atmosphere to
the depths of the oceans," added Peter Thorne of the Cooperative Institute for
Climate and Satellites, N Carolina State University.
Carbon dioxide increased by 2.60 ppm in the atmosphere in 2010, which is more
than the average annual increase seen from 1980-2010, Karl added. CO2 is the
major greenhouse gas accumulating in the air that atmospheric scientists blame
for warming the climate.
The warmer conditions are consistent with events such as heat waves and
extreme rainfall, Karl said at a teleconference. However, it is more difficult
to make a direct connection with events such as tornado outbreaks, he said.
"Any single weather event is driven by a number of factors, from local
conditions to global climate patterns and trends. Climate change is one of
these," he said. "It is very likely that large-scale changes in climate, such
as increased moisture in the atmosphere and warming temperatures, have
influenced . . . many different types of extreme events, such as heavy
rainfall, flooding, heat waves and droughts.
The report, being published by the American Meteorological Society, lists 2010
as tied with 2005 for the warmest y on record, according to studies by the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA.
MYREF: 20110629191746 msg2011062923696
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Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[sour grapes from the coal lobby]
Spring's Extreme Weather Not Seen in Nearly 100 Years
Related:
* Natural Disasters: Top 10 US Threats
http://www.livescience.com/environment/top10_naturaldisasterthreats_us.html
* The World's Weirdest Weather
http://www.livescience.com/11344-world-weirdest-weather-251.html
Brett Israel
OurAmazingPlanet
Jun 15, 2011 6:51 PM ET
The weather this spring has been so severe -historic flooding, extreme drought
and record-breaking outbreaks of killer tornadoes -that the last time any
spring in the United States remotely looked like it was in 1927, according to
scientists.
The death toll has been staggering, and the bulk of hurricane season still
looms ahead.
A mix of climate patterns triggered these extreme events, scientists said
during a briefing today (June 15).
"The reality is there usually isn't one single smoking gun," said Thomas Karl
of the National Climatic Data Center.
One culprit was La Ni�a, a cyclical system of trade winds that cools the
waters of the equatorial Pacific. (El Ni�o is La Ni�a's warm-water
counterpart.) La Ni�a (Spanish for "the little girl") can muck with global
weather patterns, recurring every few y and lingering for as long as 2
years. [Weirdo Weather: 7 Rare Weather Events].
La Ni�a is gone now, but her slow exit -- along with a lingering reversal of
atmospheric pressure patterns and wind direction in the N Atlantic, called
the N Atlantic Oscillation -- appears to have been the big driver behind all
the wild weather.
"The effects of La Ni�a were sort of muddled together with the effects of the
enhanced N Atlantic Oscillation," said Ed O'Lenic of the Climate Prediction
Center.
Some of the extremes seen this spring could be just a taste of what we might
see in a future, warmer world -though scientists do not tie particular events
to climate change.
Floods & drought
The historic flooding of the Mississippi and Missouri rivers has dominated
headlines lately. [Mightiest Floods of the Mississippi River]
The floods were caused by heavy winter snows and torrential spring rains,
driven by La Ni�a and the N Atlantic Oscillation. All that water ran into the
2 rivers, and the US Army Corps of Engineers has been forced to release record
amounts of water from the Missouri's reservoirs to cope with the flooding. As
the Midwest continues to be soaked by rainstorms and parts of the snowpack
have yet to melt, the Corps may find itself releasing reservoir water through
mid-August.
Extreme floods could be a common sight in a warmer world, Karlsaid. The hotter
that Earth's atmosphere gets, the more water it can hold; this could cause
more intense rain and snow in certain parts of the world.
A warmer world is also expected to bring on more severe droughts, like those
the Southwest has experienced this year, Karl said. More moisture in the air
doesn't automatically mean extreme rain will fall everywhere.
"You need an atmospheric disturbance to wring that out of the air," Karl said.
An atmospheric disturbance -- a storm -- would be welcome in the Southwest
today, because the region is in the middle of one of the driest y since
recordkeeping began in the 1930s.
Tornadoes
The 2011 tornado season is already one of the most active ever, due to a steep
rise in twisters in April, the most tornado-filled April on record. It may end
up as the biggest tornado m of all time after the counts are finished, said
Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory.
The spike in tornadoes has turned this y into a blast from the past: Most of
history's deadliest tornadoes hit during the early part of the 20th century,
when tornado science was in its infancy and warnings were poor. Tornado season
isn't over yet, and the y could finish as the second deadliest on record,
Brooks said. It currently ranks fifth.
"That has made us look like the kind of y my grandpa would have thought of as
a normal y growing up," Brooks said.
La Ni�a's exit around 3 m ago precipitated the tornado-producing conditions
that held sway this spring. Its departure allowed the jet stream to go rogue,
driving winds into the heart of the country and violently mixing cool and warm
air masses, creating the thunderstorms that spawned the deadly tornadoes. Had
La Ni�a stayed strong, the jet stream would have been farther N during the
first few m of tornado season.
But this season is not necessarily a portent of those to come. Brooks isn't
ready to blame the extreme tornado season on climate change, and doesn't see
any reason to call this y a major shift toward more tornadoes.
"These are the kinds of y that happen on rare occasion and hopefully won't
happen again for quite some time," Brooks said.
MYREF: 20110629200001 msg2011062913292
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---
[In the search for credible quotes, "skeptics" can unknowingly promote
the views of scientists that actually accept AGW].
Well said Freeman!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 28 Feb 2011 16:35 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Wild weather draining fragile state budgets
Grace Muller
Southeast Farm Press
Jun. 30, 2011
Drought, floods, thunderstorms and tornadoes brutally hit the United States
this spring and hurricane season hasn't started yet.
With people and government budgets suffering from weather costs, what will
summer bring?
Meteorologists at AccuWeather.com predict 4 direct hits on the United States
by tropical systems this year. Cleanup costs from those storms will drain
already fragile state budgets hit by extreme weather this spring.
The damage this spring broke records. Last week, a report from Aon Benfield, a
re-insurance company, estimated $21 or $22 bn in damage from severe weather so
far this year.
Aon Benfield's report included uninsured losses from April and May's tornadoes
and severe storms. Aon said that in those 2 months, the amount of severe
weather insured losses is 3 times the US annual average (1990-2010).
The damage total reported by Aon does not include damage from flooding,
drought and wildfire.
Flooding of the Mississippi River from Illinois to Louisiana caused between
$850 mn and $2 bn in damage, John Michael Riley, agricultural economist at
Mississippi State, said.
In Minot, N.D., $90 mn is the preliminary estimate for flood damage to public
facilities. With the flood waters still high, there is no prediction on damage
to homes and other private property.
Aon Benfield's damage total also doesn't cover the amount of damage caused by
drought and wildfires in the Southwest. The National Climatic Data Center
estimates damage between $1 and $3 billion.
The severe weather events included in Aon Benfield's reports, added together
with some other unusual weather events, totals between $23 billion and $28
billion. For comparison, the top estimate, $28 billion, is 3 times the 2011
operating budget for the Environmental Protection Agency.
With 4 predicted tropical system hits this year, severe weather damage totals
will grow.
A tropical system hitting the United States does not necessarily mean that the
storm will be a hurricane. A tropical system could be anything from a tropical
storm to a Category 5 hurricane. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with winds
more than 73 mph.
How Much Does a Hurricane Cost?
$1.8 bn (2011 adjusted) is the median cost of an Atlantic hurricane that hits
land in the United States. The median cost is the most accurate measure of the
middle of the data because Hurricane Katrina's immense damage, at $145 bn
(2011 adjusted), inflates the average cost of a hurricane to close to $9 bn.
Cost estimates from a hurricane don't include damage the system causes once it
moves inland. For example, Hurricane Ike hit land in Texas but Ike's high
winds knocked down power lines across N America.
The hurricane costs don't include costs from tropical storms. Slower-moving
storms hover over an area, dumping more rain than a hurricane with high winds
that quickly passes through.
The National Weather service says that more than 1/2 of US tropical cyclone
deaths from 1970 to 1999 were caused by inland flooding.
MYREF: 20110701100002 msg2011070131352
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Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Global Warming and the Science of Extreme Weather
How rising temperatures change weather and produce fiercer, more frequent
storms. Second of a three-part series
John Carey
June 29, 2011
Scientific American
Extreme Weather and Climate Change: The Complete Series The evidence is
in: global warming has caused severe floods, droughts and storms. We present a
three-part series by John Carey, who was funded by the Pew Center on Global
Climate Change, and other selections from the editors.
Editor's note: This article is the second of a three-part series by John
Carey. Part 1, posted on June 28, is "Storm Warning: Extreme Weather Is a
Product of Climate Change".
Extreme floods, prolonged droughts, searing heat waves, massive rainstorms and
the like don't just seem like they've become the new normal in the last few
years--they have become more common, according to data collected by
reinsurance company Munich Re (see Part 1 of this series). But has this
increase resulted from human-caused climate change or just from natural
climatic variations? After all, recorded floods and droughts go back to the
earliest days of mankind, before coal, oil and natural gas made the modern
industrial world possible.
Until recently scientists had only been able to say that more extreme
weather is "consistent" with climate change caused by greenhouse gases
that humans are emitting into the atmosphere. Now, however, they can begin to
say that the odds of having extreme weather have increased because of
human-caused atmospheric changes--and that many individual events would not
have happened in the same way without global warming. The reason: The
signal of climate change is finally emerging from the "noise"--the huge amount
of natural variability in weather.
Scientists compare the normal variation in weather with rolls of the
dice. Adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere loads the dice, increasing
odds of such extreme weather events. It's not just that the weather dice are
altered, however. As Steve Sherwood, co-director of the Climate Change
Research Center at the University of New S Wales in Australia, puts it, "it is
more like painting an extra spot on each face of one of the dice, so that it
goes from 2 to 7 instead of 1 to 6. This increases the odds of rolling 11 or
12, but also makes it possible to roll 13."
Why? Basic physics is at work: The planet has already warmed roughly 1 degree
Celsius since preindustrial times, thanks to CO2and other greenhouse gases
emitted into the atmosphere. And for every 1-degree C (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit)
rise in temperature, the amount of moisture that the atmosphere can contain
rises by 7 percent, explains Peter Stott, head of climate monitoring and
attribution at the UK Met Office's Hadley Center for Climate Change. "That's
quite dramatic," he says. In some places, the increase has been much
larger. Data gathered by Gene Takle, professor of meteorology at Iowa State
University in Ames, show a 13% rise in summer moisture over the past 50 years
in the state capital, Des Moines.
The physics of too much rain
The increased moisture in the atmosphere inevitably means more rain. That's
obvious. But not just any kind of rain, the climate models predict. Because of
the large-scale energy balance of the planet, "the upshot is that overall
rainfall increases only 2 to 3% per degree of warming, whereas extreme
rainfall increases 6 to 7 percent," Stott says. The reason again comes from
physics. Rain happens when the atmosphere cools enough for water vapor to
condense into liquid. "However, because of the increasing amount of
greenhouse gases in the troposphere, the radiative cooling is less efficient,
as less radiation can escape to space," Stott explains. "Therefore the global
precipitation increases less, at about 2 to 3% per degree of warming." But
because of the extra moisture, when precipitation does occur (in both rain and
snow), it's more likely to be in bigger events.
Iowa is one of many places that fits the pattern. Takle documented a three- to
seven-fold increase in high rainfall events in the state, including the
500-year Mississippi River flood in 1993, the 2008 Cedar Rapids flood as well
as the 500-year event in 2010 in Ames, which inundated the Hilton Coliseum
basketball court in 8 feet (2.5 meters) of water . "We can't say with
confidence that the 2010 Ames flood was caused by climate change, but we can
say that the dice are loaded to bring more of these events," Takle says.
MYREF: 20110701130001 msg201107016048
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Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Scientists seek link between climate change and extreme weather events
Link between climate change and recent extreme weather events can no longer be
ignored, say top scientists
Related:
* It has been impossible to say these events were part of a bigger picture - unt
il now
Steve Connor
The Independent
Fri, 1 July 2011
Scientists are to end their 20-year reluctance to link climate change with
extreme weather - the heavy storms, floods and droughts which often fill news
bulletins - as part of a radical departure from a previous equivocal position
that many now see as increasingly untenable.
Climate researchers from Britain, the United States and other parts of the
world have formed a new international alliance that aims to investigate
exceptional weather events to see whether they can be attributable to global
warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
They believe that it is no longer plausible merely to claim that extreme
weather is "consistent" with climate change. Instead, they intend to assess
each unusual event in terms of the probability that it has been exacerbated or
even caused by the global temperature increase seen over the past century.
The move is likely to be highly controversial because the science of "climate
attribution" is still in the early stages of development and so is likely to
be pounced on by climate "sceptics" who question any link between industrial
emissions of CO2 and rises in global average temperatures.
In the past scientists have been extremely reluctant to link a single extreme
weather event with climate change, arguing that the natural variability of the
weather makes it virtually impossible to establish any definitive association
other than a possible general consistency with what is expected from studies
based on computer models.
However, a growing number of climate scientists are now prepared to adopt a
far more aggressive posture, arguing that the climate has already changed
enough for it to be affecting the probability of an extreme weather event,
whether it is an intense hurricane, a major flood or a devasating drought.
"We've certainly moved beyond the point of saying that we can't say anything
about attributing extreme weather events to climate change," said Peter Stott,
a leading climate scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter.
"It's very clear we're in a changed climate now which means there's more
moisture in the atmosphere and the potential for stronger storms and heavier
rainfall is clearly there."
Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished senior scientist at the US National Centre
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, also believes the time
has come to emphasise the link between extreme weather and the global climate
in which it develops.
"The environment in which all storms form has changed owing to human
activities, in particular it is warmer and more moist than it was 30 or 40 y
ago," Dr Trenberth said.
"We have this extra water vapour lurking around waiting for storms to develop
and then there is more moisture as well as heat that is available for these
storms [to form]. The models suggest it is going to get drier in the
subtropics, wetter in the monsoon trough and wetter at higher latitudes. This
is the pattern we're already seeing."
The Met Office and NCAR have joined forces with other climate organisations,
including the influential US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organisation
(NOAA), to carry out detailed investigations of extreme weather events, such
as the vast flooding in Pakistan last year, to see whether they can detect a
climate change "signal" as a likely cause.
A group of their researchers has formed a coalition called the Attribution of
Climate-Related Events which is preparing a report on the subject to be
published later this y at a meeting of the World Climate Research Programme in
Denver. They hope in future to assess each extreme weather phenomenon in terms
of its probability of being linked with global warming and then to post the
result on the internet.
"There is strong evidence if you look across the world that we are seeing an
increase in heatwaves and floods and droughts and extreme rainfall and extreme
temperatures," Dr Stott said.
"The evidence is clear from looking at the observational records globally that
extreme temperatures and extreme rainfall are changing. But you can't jump
from that and say that a specific event is straightforwardly attributable
because we know that natural variability could have played a part.
"We've been developing the science to be increasingly more quantitative about
the links and make more definitive statements about how the risk has
changed. You look sensibly about these things by talking about changing risk,
or changing probability of these events."
Dr Stott had his colleagues have already carried out studies of the 2003
heatwave in Europe, in which up to 35k people died of heat-related illnesses,
as well as the devastating UK floods in 2000 which cost £1.3bn in insurance
claims and destroyed 10k homes following the wettest autumn in England and
Wales since records began in 1766.
In both cases, the scientists found that the contribution of man-made
greenhouse gases to global warming substantially increased the risk of such
extreme events occurring. The group is also investigating the exceptional warm
April in Britain this year, which was the warmest since central England
records were kept in 1659 and 0.5C warmer on average than the previous warmest
April.
Also this year, an unprecedented number of tornadoes across the southeastern
US and the flooding of major rivers such as the Mississippi and Missouri led
many people to question whether they were exacerbated by global warming. In
the past scientists would have been reluctant to link single weather events
such as these with climate change, but Dr Trenberth believes this is wrong.
"I will not say that you cannot link one event to these things. I will say
instead that the environment in which all of these storms are developing has
changed," Dr Trenberth told The Independent.
"It's not so much the instantaneous result of the greenhouse effect, it's the
memory of the system and the main memory is in the oceans and the oceans have
warmed up substantially, at depth, and we can measure that. I will assert that
every event has been changed by climate change and the main time we perceive
it is when we find ourselves outside the realms of the previous natural
variability, and because natural variability is so large this is why we don't
notice it most of the time.
"When we have things that occur usually 4% of the time start to occur 10% of
the time, that's when we begin to notice. The main way we perceive climate
change is in changes in the extremes? this is when we break records."
A report by the insurance company Munich Re found that 2010 was one of the
worst y on record for natural disasters, nine-tenths of which were related to
extreme weather, such as the floods in Pakistan and eastern Australia and
heatwave in Russia, which is estimated to have killed at least 56k people,
making it the most deadly natural disaster in the country's history.
"This long-term trend can no longer be explained by natural climate
oscillations alone. No, the probability is that climate change is contributing
to some of the warming of the world's oceans," said Peter Höppe, author of the
Munich Re report.
Making the connection
Tornadoes, US, 2011 More than 220 people were killed by tornadoes and violent
storms that ripped through south-eastern United States in April; 131 were
killed in Alabama alone. Fifteen people died in Tuscaloosa and sections of the
city were destroyed.
Heatwave, UK, 2011April was the warmest since 1659, when records in England
began. Sun-lovers flocked to St Ives, above, but fears of drought were
raised. Rainfall in the UK that m was only 52% of the long-term
average.
Drought, Brazil, 2005 The Amazon region suffered the worst drought in more
than a century. The floodplains dried up and people were walking or using
bicycles on areas where canoes and river boats had been the only means of
transport.
Floods, USA, 2005 Katrina was one of the 5 deadliest hurricanes in the history
of the US, and it caused the destruction of New Orleans when levees were
overwhelmed. Some 90% of residents of SE Louisiana were evacuated.
MYREF: 20110701133001 msg2011070122188
[222 more news items]
---
Earth's atmosphere contains natural greenhouse gases (mostly water
vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane) which act to keep the lower layers
of the atmosphere warmer than they otherwise would be without those
gases. Greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation - the radiant heat
energy that the Earth naturally emits to outer space in response to
solar heating. Mankind's burning of fossil fuels (mostly coal,
petroleum, and natural gas) releases carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere and this is believed to be enhancing the Earth's natural
greenhouse effect. As of 2008, the concentration of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere was about 40% to 45% higher than it was before the
start of the industrial revolution in the 1800's.
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Weather in W turns July 4 into skier's paradise
[Record heat and unusual snow at the same time. No extremes where!]
Tony Overman
AP/USA Today
Jul 2 2011
As Fourth of July weekend kicks off, people across the W are donning shorts,
bikini tops and Hawaiian shirts -- and then they're hitting the slopes.
Ski resorts from California to Colorado opened for the weekend to take
advantage of an unusual combination of dense lingering snow from late-season
storms in the Sierra Nevada and the Rockies and a high-pressure system
ushering in warm air from the east.
Resort operators Sat reported large crowds, balmy temperatures and plenty of
bare skin.
"I've seen bathing suits, funny costumes like Hawaiian skirts and silver
sequined pants. Shorts are very standard today," said Rachael Woods, a
spokeswoman for California's Alpine Meadows, which has offered Independence
Day skiing just one other time in its 50-year history. "People are coming off
the slopes and putting on flip-flops."
The weather at the base of the mountain Sat climbed into the upper 50s.
At Snowbird Ski and Summer Resort in Utah, 783 inches of snow this season
smashed the old record of 688 inches set in the winter of 1983-84. By the time
the resort closes for the season after Mon's holiday, it will have been open a
record 202 days.
Colorado's Arapahoe Basin Ski Area drew more than 1,500 skiers and
snowboarders Sat -- about 1/2 as many people as a regular-season weekend day,
said spokeswoman Leigh Hierholzer. The resort, located 70 miles W of Denver,
last offered skiing on Fourth of July weekend in 1997, she said.
The weather allowed some of the more adventurous skiers at Arapahoe to try
"pond skimming," a blend of snow skiing and waterskiing in which an individual
picks up as much speed as possible going downhill and then attempts to coast
over the top of a mid-mountain lake.
But while snow-sport enthusiasts are celebrating, the peculiar conditions are
proving frustrating -- and even deadly -- for visitors to some of the West's
popular camping and hiking destinations. This year's massive snowpack is
thawing, causing rivers and streams to surge and prompting flood warnings.
At Yosemite National Park in California, one hiker was killed and another
remains missing after they were swept off a bridge into a reservoir Wed by
unusually high runoff. Several of the park's popular high-country campgrounds,
cabins and other amenities remain closed due to snow.
Officials at nearby Stanislaus National Forest have had to turn away many
disappointed visitors seeking permits to hike the popular backcountry this
weekend, said Karen Caldwell, summit district ranger for the forest, located
primarily in Tuolumne County.
Much of the terrain above 8k feet remains blanketed in snow, while some
lower-elevation areas are blocked by high- and fast-running creeks and
overflowing rivers.
"Many people from the (Central) Valley have been stopping at the ranger
station with the expectation they can go backpacking to their favorite
destinations They are under snow," Caldwell said.
Oregon and Wyoming both saw their second-wettest spring in 117 y of record
keeping as a result of late-season snowmelt and abundant rain, according to
the National Climatic Data Center.
Despite the potential hazards, chilled rivers and snowy mountains might sound
pretty good to those battling scorching heat that reached triple digits in
some places.
The National Weather Service on Sat issued a heat advisory for the San
Francisco Bay area, warning the elderly, the very young and the infirm to
avoid spending too much time outdoors. Farther south, Santa Barbara County
planned cooling centers in libraries, senior centers and other community
facilities in 7 cities.
Of course, not everyone has the option to travel to beat the heat. In
Arizona's Maricopa County, Sheriff Joe Arpaio ordered a box truck filled with
1000s of bags of ice to be delivered to the county's outdoor jails Sat afternoon
.
Arpaio said inmates would be able to have as many bags of ice as they needed
and could use them however they saw fit -- including to sit on.
MYREF: 20110703200001 msg201107035512
[222 more news items]
---
[W]omen are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Oklahoma's 2011 weather is extreme, typical
[Okla -- where "extremes" are "average"].
PHOTO: Lightning strikes the ground near Guymon. Severe thunderstorms struck
the drought-stricken Oklahoma Panhandle on Tue night, bringing some
much-needed rain, but the lightning strikes also sparked numerous grass fires
on the tinder-dry ground.
Althea Peterson
Tulsaworld.com
7/3/2011 2:26 AM
From Nowata's coldest temperature in state history in Feb to Tulsa's heat
record in June, weather officials across the state have 2 words to describe
Oklahoma's 2011:
Extreme. And typical.
"The hits keep coming for Oklahoma," said Gary McManus, associate state
climatologist with the Oklahoma Climatological Survey.
McManus said the 1st 1/2 of 2011 has had a wide variety of severe weather,
which collectively is unusual. Extremes, however, are to be expected in this
region, he said.
"It's not just an Oklahoma thing," McManus said. "It's a Great Plains
thing. We have a leg up because it seems that air masses tend to clash over
us. In reality, it's typical."
After enduring record setting snowfall in Feb, including the most snow
recorded in a m (22.5 inches), Tulsa was under a burn ban within a few months,
from April 4-17, said George Geissler, state forester for the Oklahoma
Forestry Service.
Awareness and caution to avoid generating sparks are appreciated by fire
officials, especially when most counties in the western 1/2 of the state are
currently under a burn ban, Geissler said.
"We are making sure we are prepared as a fire agency so we are ready to
respond," Geissler said. "It's going to take much more than an individual rain
to break a drought."
Drought is the current state concern, despite record flooding in the Illinois
River in Watts on April 26. Patrick Burke, Norman National Weather Service
meteorologist, said droughts are measured on a 0-4 scale.
"It's exceptionally difficult to get up to the D-4 rating and roughly about
1/3 of the state is classified as D-4," Burke said.
Tulsa National Weather Service meteorologist Pete Snyder said it is hard to
determine how such extremes could have occurred within the same calendar year,
let alone the 1st 6 months.
"It's too complex of an issue to say why this happened," Snyder said. "There
are so many things that could be affecting this."
An ongoing La Nina caused the state's typically rainy m to be drier, Burke said,
meaning for the near future, 2011 will likely continue to be extreme for Oklahom
a.
"For La Nina to disappear during the summer doesn't help us as much," Burke
said. "There is hope, but in the short term, we are still dealing with the
exceptional drought. Until further notice, we are looking at hot weather and
exceptionally dry weather."
Tulsa weather records for 1st 1/2 of 2011
29: Most days in June with highs in the 90s (tied with 1911 and 1934)
22.5: Most snowfall (in inches) in a m and for Feb
14: Most snowfall (in inches) for a 24-hour period and snow depth, set
Jan. 31 to Feb. 1.
13.2: Most snowfall (in inches) for a calendar day, set Feb. 1
Regional records
(for northwest Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma, excluding McCurtain
County) for 2011:
25: Most tornadoes in one day, set April 14
42: Most tornadoes in one month, set in April
68: Most tornadoes in one year
o The driest March on record in southeast Oklahoma and record flooding
at the Illinois River in Watts on April 26 also happened in 2011.
State records
-31: Coldest temperature, Feb. 10 in Nowata
27: Most snowfall (in inches) in a 24-hour period, Feb. 8-9 in Spavinaw
Source: National Weather Service
MYREF: 20110704080001 msg2011070430388
[220 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
The decline of agriculture?
Climate change induced extreme weather events and shifting weather patterns
are challenging farmer's ability to feed us.
Dahr Jamail
Al-Jazeera
04 Jul 2011 15:18
Wendy Johnston with Oakwyn Farms in Athens, W Virginia, is deeply concerned
about how shifting weather patterns are impacting farmer's ability to feed the
global population.
"This y we're off to a slow start," Johnston, who farms 40 hectares, told Al
Jazeera. "Last y in April we were able to plant, but this y we even had
rain, cold and snow a few days in April. The weather has become very
unpredictable, and that's the real problem."
Climate change is making farming more difficult for her, and she wonders how
much worse things will become.
On March 31, The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) warned of
"potentially catastrophic" impacts on food production from slow-onset climate
changes that are expected to increasingly hit the developing world.
The report filed with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, warned that food production systems and the ecosystems they depend on
are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. Changes in
temperature, precipitation, and related outbreaks of pest and diseases could
reduce production, the report said. Those particularly vulnerable are poor
people in countries that rely on food imports, although climate change events
are already driving up food costs around the globe, including in developed count
ries.
April broke many weather-related monthly records in the US, including 292
tornadoes and 5,400 extreme weather events, which combined to cause 337 deaths.
The US National Climatic Data Center announced in June that April's weather
extremes were "unprecedented" and "never before" seen in a single month. The
center also noted drought across the southern plains, wildfires in the
southwest, and record floods along the Mississippi River.
"Severe weather events around the world will increase, even parts of the globe
that don't normally see extreme weather events," said Steff Gaulter, Al
Jazeera's senior weather presenter. "Those parts of the world that already
struggle with water shortages will find matters worsening, including
Australia, Mexico, the southwest United States, and parts of Africa."
Gaulter agrees with the FAO that poorer countries are likely to be the worst
affected because they have less resources to cope with disasters. "With
worsening water-shortages, there will be more crop-failures, which means an
increase in malnutrition," she added. "There is also likely to be an increase
in disease as people drink water that is unsuitable for consumption. All of
this is an added expense that will be particularly punishing for poorer
regions to endure, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa."
Approximately 300 mn people in Sub-Saharan Africa currently lack access to
clean drinking water.
"It is also estimated that by 2020, an additional 75 to 250 mn people
there will also face water shortages," said Gaulter. "That's in less than ten ye
ars."
Soil in peril
Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the US National Centre for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, believes it is time to emphasize the
link between extreme weather and the global climate in which it develops.
"The environment in which all storms form has changed owing to human
activities. In particular, it is warmer and more moist than it was 30 or 40 y
ago," Dr Trenberth said.
"We have this extra water vapour lurking around waiting for storms to develop
and then there is more moisture as well as heat that is available for these
storms [to form]. The models suggest it is going to get drier in the
subtropics, wetter in the monsoon trough and wetter at higher latitudes. This
is the pattern we're already seeing."
Climate change has generated shifting weather patterns and extreme weather
events that make it more difficult for farmers to feed us. A reliance upon
non-renewable energy is also a factor in impending food crises.
Professor Michael Bomford, a research scientist at Kentucky State University
and a fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, is concerned about how our
dependence on oil to feed ourselves is leading to soil depletion and
degradation, as well as increasing prices.
"The farm is a very small proportion of the economy in the US and other
developed countries, but it has a disproportionate impact on global change,"
Professor Bomford, who has a Master's of Pest Management and a PhD in Plant
and Soil Sciences, told Al Jazeera. "Clearing land for farming releases carbon
into the atmosphere and that contributes to climate change. Then by farming
it, using cultivation causes soil to be lost in wind and erosion, and that
topsoil took 1000s of y to form. One extreme weather event can cause us to
lose 1000s of y of soil."
Modern farming impacts soil by the use of nitrogen fertilizers, which are
energy intensive to produce and which deplete carbon in the soil. "This
erodes the soil's ability to hold nutrients, and starts a positive feedback
loop," added Professor Bomford. "A lot of our soils now rely on irrigation
rather than rainfall, which depletes groundwater reserves, and these have huge
impacts on the soil."
William Ryerson, founder and president of the Population Media Center and
president of the Population Institute, is also very concerned about
fertilizers' impact on soil. He has questioned how, in the long run, this will
impact agriculture.
"The world's agricultural systems rely substantially on increasing use of
fertilizers," Ryerson told Al Jazeera. "But now, the world's farmers are
witnessing signs of a declining response curve, where the use of additional
fertilizer yields little additional food product. At the same time,
fertilizers and intensive cropping lower the quality of soil. These factors
will more and more limit the possibilities of raising food production
substantially and will, at a minimum, boost relative food prices and resulting
hunger for many."
Carbon stored in soil allows the soil to hold nutrients and water, and losing
soil contributes to climate change. Bomford is worried about other
contributing factors to climate change borne from the use of chemical fertilizer
s.
"Agriculture produces methane and nitrous oxides, like with animal agriculture
that contributes to climate change, and these have a much greater effect on
climate change than CO2," he said. "Ocean dead zones are associated with
fertilizers since phosphorus and nitrogen applied to our farms runs down
rivers into the oceans creating algal blooms, and that pulls oxygen out of the
water and we end up with vast dead zones from lack of oxygen for marine life."
In June, scientists from the University of Michigan predicted a record Gulf of
Mexico dead zone due in large part to the flooding of the Mississippi
River. The dead zone is forecast to be between 22,014 and 24,400 square
kilometers, an area roughly the size of the US state of New Hampshire.
This estimate dramatically surpasses the 15,539-square-kilometer average of
the past 5 years, as well as the current record, set in 2002, of 21,755 square
kilometers.
"Every spring, around this time, we see these vast dead zones forming at the
mouth of the Mississippi and other rivers," said Bomford. "Surface waters
carry valuable sediments from our soil into the water and that causes dirty
and cloudy water. Agriculture plays a disproportionate role in contributing to
the decline of the oceans."
Shifting towards crisis
Ryerson warns of these trends causing massive food shortages in the future.
"Because of industrialization leading to loss of agricultural land, population
growth, and the demand for more meat instead of grain as incomes rise, China
is projected to need to import 240 mn tons of food annually by the y 2030," he s
aid.
Projections also show that India, currently a food exporter, will need to
import 30 mn tons a y by 2030.
"Yet, total world agricultural trade is currently just 200 mn tons of grain or
grain equivalent, and that amount is decreasing as the exporting countries
consume more and more of their own food products," said Ryerson. "Accordingly,
the increasing demand for food imports by growing economies like China's will
almost certainly drive up the price of food over the next 30 years, virtually
ensuring that more people elsewhere will suffer from starvation."
Gaulter warned that shifting weather patterns lead to lack of drinking water
in many areas of the globe.
"It's also worth mentioning that as the world heats up, glaciers and snow
cover are also expected to decline," she said, "This will reduce water
availability in countries supplied by melt water, so lack of drinking water
will be a problem in parts of the globe such as S America and Asia, even
though the region may not technically be in a drought."
She cited Australia as a place where the increasing drought effects of climate
change are already being seen.
"Australia is already getting hotter and drier. By 2030, there are forecast to
be 20% more droughts, and it's estimated that by 2050, the annual flow into
the Murray-Darling basin will fall by up to a quarter. This basin takes up
much of southeastern Australia and provides 85% of the water that is used for
irrigation nationally."
Gaulter said counties like India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar are going to be
heavily impacted by increasing floods, and other poor countries will be
particularly heavily affected. "Not necessarily because they'll see more of
them [floods], but because they have less resources to call on in times of
emergency. Following a devastating flood we often see outbreak of disease,
such as diarrohea and dysentery, due to the lack of clean drinking water."
Winds of change
Johnston believes people who do not grow their own food can't realize when
certain crops should or should not be available.
"Things people expect at certain times are no longer there much of the time
now," she said, "There isn't squash available now like there used to
be. Usually in June [there are] lots of lettuce greens peas and squashes, but
because of changing weather patterns the squash will now be late, and the heat
caused us to replant the greens and lettuces, which will now be late as well."
Chandler Goule, vice president of government relations for the National
Farmers Union in the US, is a long-time supporter of the science behind
climate change. He believes the weather changes are from "impacts caused by huma
ns."
"As we continue to see increasing weather disasters in the US and around the
world, we will see increasing food costs, hungry people, and this will cause
the consumer to spend more of their income on food," Goule told Al Jazeera.
Farmers like Johnston are acutely in touch with the shifting weather patterns
due to climate change.
"We really don't have spring anymore," she said of where she lives. "In May,
it rained a lot and was cold, but the wk before Memorial Day [the last Mon of
May], it was 11 C and raining, and the next wk it was 33 C."
Johnston explained that an abrupt temperature shift like this is extreme for
agriculture, which cannot survive huge, sudden shifts. "I remember as a child
there was a gradual change from winter to summer," she said, "But I don't
think we're seeing that now."
MYREF: 20110705173001 msg20110705667
[219 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
June 2011: Tied for 3rd hottest on record in Washington, D.C.
Matt Rogers
The Washington Post
01:35 PM ET, 07/05/2011
June 2011 tied with June 1943 for the 3rd hottest June on record. The hottest
June on record occurred in 2010.While not as hot at the record-shattering 2010
(two degrees cooler), summer got off to a historically steamy start in
Washington, D.C. Averaging more than 4 degrees above average, June 2011
tied with 1943 as the 3rd hottest on record.
In recent years, Junes have trended hot. The blog Capital Climate noted:
"Two out of the top 3 hottest Junes, and 3 of the top 6, have been in the last
4 y (2008, 2010, and 2011). Only 1 of the top 5 [hottest years] has occurred
prior to 1981."
D.C.'s hottest temperature was that blistering day on June 9 when the mercury
soared to a record-tying 102. It not only matched the daily record from
1874, but also the hottest monthly temperature, and earliest reading in the
season so hot. On the same date, a record high minimum temperature of 79
(beating the previous 2008 reading by 2 degrees) was set. Additional record
highs were set on June 1 (98) and 8 (99). And another record high minimum
occurred on June 1 (76).
We had 10 days at or above 90 during the m compared to the 1981-2010
average of 7.1 days. Last year, we had a brutal 18 days at or above that
90-degree threshold..
Our coolest high temperature of the m occurred on June 15, a relatively cool 79.
Precipitation at National Airport was only 1.68", which is not as dry as our
driest on record (0.86" way back in 1940). It actually rained at the airport
on 18 of the 30 days of the past month. But most days only produced a trace to
a hundredth of an inch. Our one-day biggest rain total was a much-needed 0.83"
on June 16.
The precipitation pattern type over N America in June was typical of one seen
during and in the wake of a Pacific La Nina pattern. These situations tend to
favor a hot and dry South, which can frequently edge up the E Coast as
well. The Federal Government's Drought Monitor, below, shows this pattern type w
ell.
U.S. Drought Monitor shows dry conditions sneaking into the mid-Atlantic
states from the South. (U.S. Drought Monitor) This issue may become a bigger
story for the balance of summer as dry soil conditions can enhance heat waves
and, of course, create lots of other problems (farm woes, water shortages,
and, of course, fire danger). Despite some early July storms, we are still
running about 3 inches below normal since Jan 1
The National Weather Service publishes nice monthly assessments usually within
a wk of the close of each m (should be available shortly).
You can click on your closest airport location here:
Reagan National (DCA)
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/cx/cxus51.klwx.clm.dca.txt
Dulles Airport (IAD)
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/cx/cxus51.klwx.clm.iad.txt
Baltimore-Washington (BWI)
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/cx/cxus51.klwx.clm.bwi.txt
Historical Washington, DC data provided by NOAA and Speedwell Weather.
MYREF: 20110706064530 msg2011070620759
[222 more news items]
---
[Asked an answered:]
So How Do Met Office Carbon Based Forecasts Compare To Solar Based Forecasts?
-- BONZO [various nyms], 25 May 2011 16:00 +1000
Temperatures don't follow the 11-year solar cycle.
Other than that 11-year cycle the total solar output
is reasonably constant.
-- BONZO [various nyms], 5 Jun 2011 00:08 +1000
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Taipei records highest temperature of the y so far
[Cold snaps across the S hemisphere; heatwaves across the northern hemisphere.
Move along -- no extreme weather to see here].
Jamie Wang
CNA
2011/07/05 19:11:06
Taipei -- Taipei City saw its temperature spike to 36.3 degrees Celsius -- the
highest so far this summer, according to the Central Weather Bureau (CWB).
Islandwide, the highest temperature came in from Taitung County's Dawu
Township at 37.8 degrees Celsius. The CWB said foehn winds, a hot dry wind
blowing down the rainshadow side of the mountains, was responsible for
Taitung's scorching reading.
However, the CWB warned that Taiwan's summer heat is just getting started.
From Jan 2000 to July 2010, the heat record in Taipei was set at 38.6 degrees
Celsius. Even the twentieth highest temperature in the last ten y was still
0.8 degrees hotter than today's mark.
Judging from the historical pattern, the CWB said the heat wave will continue
to climb.
"The temperature today is just the beginning," the bureau said.
MYREF: 20110706150002 msg201107062228
[219 more news items]
---
What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Summer floods threaten record levels as rain predicted
Related News:
* Missouri River flooding closes another Nebraska-Iowa bridge 12:55pm EDT
* Omaha airport spending millions to keep flooding away Sat, Jul 2 2011
* Flooded cities look to dry skies for some relief Wed, Jun 29 2011
* Nebraska nuclear power plant beset by floodwaters Tue, Jun 28 2011
* More flooding woes along the Missouri, Souris rivers Tue, Jun 28 2011
Molly O'Toole
Wed Jul 6, 2011 7:39pm EDT
Washington (Reuters) - With rivers still running above flood stage and soils
saturated, forecasters predicted on Wed this summer flooding season could
rival the worst in United States history.
In the "Great Flood of 1993," record-breaking floods from April to August cost
more than $25 bn in damages in at least 9 states.
But due to current high water levels and soaked soil, just a small amount of
rain could trigger more flooding in areas that have already seen record
flooding this 2011 season, the National Weather Service reported Wed.
These factors indicate the flooding threat will continue through the summer,
and potentially rival the flood of nearly a decade past.
"There is nowhere for any additional water to go," Director of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's NWS Jack Hayes said in the NOAA
statement. "While unusual for this time of year, all signs point to the flood
threat continuing."
NOAA's Climate Prediction Service has forecasted above-average rain in
already-vulnerable areas of the upper Midwest and Northern Plans in the next 2
weeks, and for much of the region in monthly outlooks.
Rising temperatures over the Rockies will add to the flood threat, releasing
water from the remaining snowpack.
The highest flood risk areas include rivers of the N Central region in N
Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa; the Lower Missouri River regions from the Nebraska
and S Dakota border through Missouri to the Mississippi River; tributaries to
the Lower Mississippi in N Dakota; the lower Ohio River Valley; and the E
and W of Rockies, including Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, Montana and Utah.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency is currently providing federal
disaster assistance to Missouri, N Dakota, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska Montana and
S Dakota.
MYREF: 20110707110001 msg201107079046
[225 more news items]
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The global warming Mormons of NASA are so disturbed by public perception
that this winter is verging on the chilly across the northern hemisphere
that they have produced a map showing areas where they claim alarmingly high
temperatures are prevailing, such as the middle of the Arctic Ocean.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 29 Dec 2010 15:46 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Arizona Dust Storm 2011: Amazing Video Of The Extreme Weather
HuffPost
07- 6-11 12:00 PM
When an incredible wall of sand and dust began wafting through Arizona, folks
from Phoenix and other towns standing in the disaster's inevitable path
grabbed their cameras and braved the elements to produce some remarkable,
up-close-and-personal footage.
The dust wall, known as a haboob, reached peak heights of 8k to 10k feet,
National Weather Service meteorologist Paul Iniguez told the Associated
Press. By the time the storm reached Phoenix, it was an estimated 5k feet.
Check out some of the incredible home videos posted to YouTube.
<http://www.youtube.com/embed/84ZZi75w0qk?wmode=Opaque>
MYREF: 20110707120001 msg2011070723149
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[Something about "warm bath in sanctimony"]
Pop over to Tim Blair's for a look.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 14 Feb 2011 14:39 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Severe weather warning for Sydney
Gale force winds are predicted to hit the already damaged regions of the Blue
Mountains.
PHOTO: The sky is falling in ... Black heath resident Angela Marando is one of
many Blue Mountains residents stunned by the ferocious weather.
Glenda Kwek
Weatherzone.com
July 7, 2011 - 8:05AM
Sydneysiders were set to be hit by wind gusts of more than 80km/h this
morning, after wild weather destroyed homes across south-eastern NSW
yesterday.
A severe weather warning for winds strong enough to fell trees has been issued
for Sydney, the Illawarra, the southern tablelands, the central tablelands,
the ACT and the Snowy Mountains, weatherzone.com.au senior meteorologist Alex
Zadnik said.
Wind gusts of 100km/h have been recorded at Bellambi Point and 89km/h around
Wollongong just S of Sydney. Advertisement: Story continues below
State Emergency Service (SES) spokeswoman Becky Gollings advised people to
"stay indoors and go outside only if you need to", keep pets and children away
from the winds, secure loose items in backyards and move cars undercover.
The NSW Department of Transport advised motorists to "avoid all non-essential
travel in the Blue Mountains following strong winds which brought down
numerous trees and power lines over the last 36 hours".
Mr Zadnik said today's winds were expected to be similar to those experienced
on Tue evening.
"But up through the Blue Mountains, while the winds might still gust at
90km/h, we're unlikely to see the extreme gusts of 140km/h that pushed through
on Tue night."
Ms Gollings said it was "relatively quiet" overnight. The SES has received
1114 calls in the past 24 hours.
But winds had picked up by 6.30am today and the SES was expecting a busy day,
she added.
Cold snap
Sydney is expected to shiver through some of its coldest mornings this year,
with minimum temperatures in the city dropping to between 6 and 7 degrees over
the weekend, Mr Zadnik said.
The mercury is expected to dip even further in western Sydney.
"The current burst of winds is related to another cold front moving through
NSW and behind this front we have some very cold air that's moved up from near
the Antarctic Circle," he said.
"So there'll be chilly conditions over southern and central NSW with
temperatures only just reaching the mid-teens on the coast and struggling to
reach 10 degrees on the ranges."
Power cuts, roads closed, train services suspended
Up to 10k homes across greater Sydney were without electricity last night.
Train services between Katoomba and Lithgow were expected to remain suspended
until Mon as crews repaired transport infrastructure damaged by fallen
trees. Buses would replace trains between Katoomba and Lithgow.
Parts of the Illawarra Highway and the Jamberoo Mountain Road S of Sydney
remain closed, while the Department of Transport warned that the Great Western
Highway would be shut in some sections today as part of a clean-up operation.
Traffic lights from Katoomba to Blackheath were expected to be out of
operation due to power failures.
MYREF: 20110707180001 msg2011070720506
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Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change
IPCC First Assessment Report: 1990
Main article: IPCC First Assessment Report
The IPCC first assessment report was completed in 1990, and served as the
basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The executive summary of the WG I Summary for Policymakers report says they
are certain that emissions resulting from human activities are substantially
increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases, resulting
on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface. They calculate
with confidence that CO2 has been responsible for over half the enhanced
greenhouse effect. They predict that under a "business as usual" (BAU)
scenario, global mean temperature will increase by about 0.3 �C per decade
during the [21st] century. They judge that global mean surface air temperature
has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 �C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent
with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural
climate variability. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse
effect is not likely for a decade or more.
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[Call me kook:]
>A scientist cites a data point that is consistent with a trend and
>says "This data is consistent with the trend; no surprise".
>A kook cites a data point inconsistent with the trend and says "Surprise!
>The trend is Wrong Wrong Wrong!".
Sorry but 1917 invalidates the trend.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 7 Feb 2011 13:29 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Weather Talk: Las Vegas breaks record for dew point depression
When the air temperature and the dew point are the same, the relative humidity
is 100 percent.
John Wheeler
WDAY [N Dakota]
July 07, 2011, 12:00 AM
When the air temperature and the dew point are the same, the relative humidity
is 100 percent. When the temperature and the dew point are close together, the
relative humidity is high.
As these 2 numbers grow farther apart, the relative humidity goes lower and
lower. The difference (in degrees) between the temperature and the dew point
is known as the dew point depression. In Fargo Moorhead, the dew point
depression is usually between zero and 40 degrees. On rare occasions, it may
reach 50 or 60 degrees.
The weather sensor at McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas set a record
for dew point depression at 4:32 p.m. June 27. At that time, the air
temperature was 107 degrees and the dew point was 22 below. This created a
relative humidity of 1 percent.
MYREF: 20110707190002 msg2011070729054
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It takes more than warmth to grow crops; otherwise the Sahara would be green!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 21 Jan 2011 11:16 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Extreme weather warnings
Times Colonist [Victoria, Canada]
July 7, 2011
The collapse of a 30-storey B.C. Hydro tower into the Fraser River is another
warning of the need to prepare now for the effects of climate change. The
downed power lines created traffic chaos in the Lower Mainland. There is great
debate about B.C. Hydro's failure to anticipate the collapse.
But the underlying cause is the extraordinary high flow levels in the Fraser
River. Jeremy Venditti, a Simon Fraser University geography professor who
studies the river, said flows this y have been about 30% above average. And
while peak levels typically last a week, they have continued for 6 wk so far
this year. The potential for damage - to bridges, tunnels and docks, not just
transmission lines - is much greater.
Those record flow levels fit into a broad pattern of increasingly extreme
weather events.
Meteorologists have cautioned against linking specific events with climate
change. Weather patterns are complex and causal relationships difficult to
pinpoint. But researchers are identifying links between tornadoes in the U.S.,
fires in Alberta, floods across Canada and other extreme weather and climate cha
nge.
Warmer air, for example, holds more moisture, leading to greater precipitation
and increased risks of floods and landslides in areas like the B.C. coast -
and to higher river flows.
Other links are less direct, but dramatic. James Overland of the U.S.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that heat released last
fall from an unusually large expanse of open water in the Arctic helped create
high-pressure bulges. They disrupted jet streams over the polar area, which
brought colder than normal air into N America, Europe and China.
Reducing the human contribution to climate change by limiting emissions makes se
nse.
But that is a long-term solution. The evidence, increasingly, is that the
effects of climate change are being felt today. It will take a broad and
coherent response to reduce the damage from changing weather patterns.
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[Irony 101:]
[By my count BONZO has called people whacko 137 times; fool 26; idiot
22 times; twit 17 times; moron 14 times in just the past 4 wks. There
is a 10+-year history, however].
Warmist Abuse Shows They're Losing
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 16 Feb 2011 17:15 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Near record highs on Grandfather Mountain
Mountain Times
12:21 PM, 07/07/2011
The weather data from the m of June recorded at the official US Weather
Service reporting station located next to Grandfather Mountain's Mile High
Swinging Bridge shows warm temperatures and dry weather.
Last m was the second warmest June at Grandfather Mountain, falling just short
of last year's record-breaking heat. The average high temperature of 72.6
degrees was 6.1 degrees warmer than normal for June, and the average low
temperature of 56.3 degrees was 3.3 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Daily high temperature records were broken 5 times during the m of June
and tied one time.
June 1: 82 degrees | Previous: 73 degrees in 1961
June 3: 78 degrees | Previous: 74 degrees in 1989
June 11: 79 degrees | Previous: 75 degrees in 1958·
June 12: 77 degrees |Previous: 77 degrees in 2010 (tie)·
June 22: 80 degrees |Previous: 79 degrees in 1964·
June 29: 79 degrees | Previous: 78 degrees in 1978 and tied in 2010 The all time
highest
June daily temperature record of 82 degrees was tied June 1. The temperature
was originally recorded June 10, 2008.
The rainfall total of 3.06 inches for the past m was 3.15 inches, or 50
percent, below the 55-year average rainfall total for June of 6.27
inches. Rain for the year-to-date totals 30.62 inches, which is 1.36 inches
(or 4 percent) below the 55-year norm for this time of year.
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Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Record temperature set in western Arkansas
[For trends in US extremes see the CEI data at NCDC:
<http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/index.html> .
Plot the data at
<http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph.php> .
Typical example plot
<http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/cei/01-12>
(my time series s/w shows sig increase of 4.8 pts per century for this one) ].
Jul 7 2011
Fort Smith, Ark. (AP) - A new record high temperature has been set in Fort Smith
.
The National Weather Service says the daytime high on Thu was a blistering 107
degrees. That breaks the previous record of 106 degrees, which was set back in 1
964.
Fort Smith was the hottest spot in the state on Thu.
Temperatures elsewhere ranged from 85 degrees in W Memphis to 100 degrees in
Fayetteville and Highfill.
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[Asked an answered:]
So How Do Met Office Carbon Based Forecasts Compare To Solar Based Forecasts?
-- BONZO [various nyms], 25 May 2011 16:00 +1000
Temperatures don't follow the 11-year solar cycle.
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
High temperature records set in Oklahoma City and Tulsa as heat wave continues
[Prev OKc record only 5 years old].
AP
July 08, 2011 - 5:13 am
Oklahoma City -- The searing heat has set temperature records in Oklahoma City
and Tulsa.
The National Weather Service says the mercury peaked at 108 degrees in
Oklahoma City on Thu, breaking a record set in 1996 of 106 degrees.
Up the turnpike in Tulsa, a record high temperature of 104 degrees was set on
Thu. Forecasters say the old record high for July 7 was 103 degrees back in
1917.
As hot as those temperatures were, they weren't the hottest recorded in the stat
e.
According to the weather service, daytime highs ranged from about 97 degrees
in Bartlesville to 110 degrees in Altus. The hottest temperatures were
reported in western Oklahoma.
Forecasters say there will be a slight chance for storms, mainly in southern
Oklahoma, on Fri.
MYREF: 20110708230002 msg2011070814449
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[Sucked in:]
> 1/2 of what he posts always contradict the other 1/2.
> One day 50 ppmv is the warming cutoff.
Oh Puuhhleeeeeeze easy with the strawman!
Not "cutoff" but 90% of the warming effect below 50ppm.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 11:27 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Tornado Total Now at 9 for Dubois County
[For trends in US tornadoes see
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/torn.html>
and
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/state-torn.html>
].
Related:
* Tornado warning issued for 3 New Jersey counties
* National Weather Service issues tornado warning for Atlantic County
Jeff Lyons
14WFIE.com
Thu, July 7th, 5:26 pm
It has been a record y for tornado touchdowns in the Tri-State. Hardest hit
is Dubois County, with 9 confirmed tornadoes this year. John Denman,
meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Louisville, says his office
has confirmed 61 tornadoes in its county warning area so far in 2011. This
number doubles their previous record of 30 twisters in 2008.
Dubois is one of 49 counties covered by the NWS office in Louisville. A
strong La Nina pattern in the jetstream and abundant tropical moisture and
energy have helped spawn a record number of tornadoes across the nation. The
Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK had a preliminary count of 1,602
tornadoes as of July 7th...the average annual total is usually around 1,300.
The 1st Dubois twister of the y struck in the overnight hours of Feb 28. An
EF-0 storm with estimated winds of 80 mph moved through the northwestern part
of the county W of Ireland.
5 tornadoes roared through on April 19th. EF-0 storms caused tree and
building damage near Holland and Haysville, while a stronger EF-1 with winds
of 100 mph struck near Schnellville and strengthened to an EF-2 with winds of
125 mph as it moved through Celestine. Several homes were heavily damaged.
On May 25th, the skies darkened again and thunderstorms spawned 2 more
tornadoes over Dubois County: An EF-1 near Cuzco and an EF-2 W of Ferdinand
and Birdseye.
The most recent tornado confirmed by the NWS was an EF-1 with winds of 100 mph
that struck around 2:00 a.m. near Duff.
While the mid-summer and early fall m are typically the slow season for
tornadoes, a secondary spike in tornadoes often arrives with the cool season
in Nov and Dec.
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[Even-number day of week:]
What feedbacks?
Oh ... you mean those mythical feedbacks in GIGO computer models.
Yeah right.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 11 May 2011 10:39 +1000
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
An Era of Tornadoes: How Global Warming Causes Wild Winds
Destruction in Missouri and elsewhere offers a taste of increasingly extreme
weather. Part one in a four-part series on climate change.
Paul Epstein
[Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H., is associate
director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard
Medical School and is a medical doctor trained in tropical public
health. He co-authored the book Changing Planet, Changing Health].
The Atlantic
Jul 8 2011, 2:35 PM ET
Too hot, too cold, too rainy, too dry, too windy. The operative word is "too,"
and it is the exaggeration of normal weather events that defines the changing
climate.
Close to home (for me, at least), Massachusetts towns have been hit with
deadly tornadoes. In Joplin, Missouri, hospitalized patients were sucked out
of emergency room windows. The consequences will remain with these communities
and many others for decades, and the images will stay with all of us. In their
wake, many are asking: Is the intensity of these twisters associated with a
changing climate?
The picture on tornadoes is not straightforward, for this uptick in severe
twisters is a new phenomenon. And the future may hold ups and downs in their
frequency. But the recent series of severe and lethal tornadoes are part of a
global trend toward more severe storms. First, extremes in general.
Recent studies published in Nature and Science conclude that extreme weather
events (heavy rainfall events and heatwave intensity) are linked to climate
change. And the heat buildup in the deep ocean helps explain why.
Since the 1950s, the world's oceans have accumulated close to 95% of
all the additional heat related to global warming. Because warm ocean surfaces
evaporate faster than cool ones and the warmed atmosphere holds more water
vapor, the warming and water vapor fuel storms. (MIT climate modeler Kerry
Emanuel, for example, has demonstrated that Hurricane Katrina would not have
been as strong as it was in 2005 if it had occurred in 1980, when the
atmosphere and sea surfaces were cooler.)
So global warming is thus causing climate change, including altered weather
patterns, and the engine of change is the heat building up deep inside the
world's oceans. Water is warming, ice is melting, and water vapor is
rising. How does this help explain tornadoes?
For tornadoes, we have clear ideas on how they form and have some idea about
how their strength may be linked to global warming.
It's all about contrasts and gradients. Warmer temperatures over land surfaces
create low-pressure systems (since hot air rises, creating "lows"), while cold
fronts from the N come with high pressures.
Weather "flows downhill," as it were--from highs to lows. When temperature and
pressure gradients between highs and lows increase (as they do naturally in
spring), the clash can twist to form tornadoes.
The greater the contrasts, the greater the force of the twisters.
This spring, especially warm and moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico
met up with especially cold fronts from the north, driven by melting Arctic
and Greenland ice. (Between 2004-06 and 2007-09, the rate of ice mass loss in
the Canadian Arctic Archipelago sped up threefold.)
Warmer air and warmer seas are melting Arctic ice, and the shrinkage has
changed N Polar air circulation--allowing "leakage" of cold air outside the
Arctic Circle. Cold fronts previously contained within the polar vortex are
now slipping out (driving severe winter weather in the US and Europe in the
past 2 years), and melting Arctic ice has also altered the path of the
branches of the jet stream. Cold, fresh melt water from the Arctic has set up
a blocking high-pressure area in the Atlantic off the Northeast for most of
the past 18 months, altering the movement of weather fronts--sometimes
hastening them, sometimes stalling them.
In addition, winds have changed globally over the past half-century. Westerly
winds have increased in both hemispheres, more so in the S (affecting
Australia's weather). These changes in global circulation patterns have
climate scientists very worried.
This is complicated, and there are a lot of moving parts. Global warming is
affecting many components of the global climate simultaneously, and the result
is an increasing propensity for severe storms and other weather extremes.
When scientists are asked about the connections, they've carefully responded
that "no one event is diagnostic of climate change." But, as Kevin Trenberth,
the head of the climate analysis section of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research, explains, questioning whether singular incidents are or
are not caused by climate change misses the point. The climate is changing,
and all weather events occur in the context of natural variability and the
changing climate.
The same set of conditions will not be repeated each year--and tornadoes, like
hurricanes, will not increase each year. And the precise dynamics described
are open to discussion. But it is clear that changing atmospheric and oceanic
conditions underlie the changing patterns of weather--and that the stage is
set for more severe storms, including even more punishing tornadoes.
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"Global warming" refers to the global-average temperature increase
that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more.
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming", 2008
This is what the real climate scientist Dr Roy Spencer said.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 3 Mar 2011 16:29 +1100
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Thu storm didn't set Denver rainfall record
[There's a newspaper headline when a record *is not* broken these days?]
Liz Navratil
The Denver Post
07/09/2011 01:00:00 AM MDT
Related
* Jul 9:
* Denver neighborhood irritated to be flooded again
* Fri-night storms pound N metro Denver with more flooding
* Jul 8:
* Fresh warnings as new storms move into N Denver metro area
* Denver drying out, but thunderstorms lining up for another afternoon dump
* Players weather the storm
* Jul 7:
* Rain moves on, leaving damage, cleanup behind
* Jul 6:
* Showers likely in Denver metro area through midnight
* Heavy rains forecast for the afternoon just a preview of coming monsoon season
Thu's thunderstorm should have set a record when it dropped more than 3 inches
of rain on some parts of Denver, but it didn't because the National Weather
Service changed its official recording point.
The previous record for rain on July 7 was set when 1.41 inches fell in 1988,
when the Weather Service took its official measurements at Stapleton
Airport. On Thu, meteorologists recorded 3.17 inches of rain at the old
airport site, more than twice the old record amount.
None of that matters, though, because Denver International Airport, the
official observation point since 1995, received only 1.04 inches of rain Thu.
Kyle Fredin, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service, said scientists
aren't sure how the change in locations will affect their records in the long ru
n.
DIA gets less rain than Stapleton, so it's less likely to break precipitation
records. But DIA tends to be hotter, making it more likely to break
high-temperature records.
"We're not going to know the big difference for 150 or 250 years," he said.
The Weather Service switched its recording spots when DIA opened. Because of
its large size, DIA required an automated sensor to constantly monitor
conditions for the planes, Fredin said.
"That's the end of an era," he added. "The human aspect is pretty much removed."
Stapleton relied on human measurements. Scientists continue to take data from
the Stapleton site by hand twice a day.
Many scientists frequently still rely on hand measurements. Nolan Doesken, a
state climatologist at Colorado State University, collects data from a network
of volunteers, one of whom recorded 3.39 inches of rain near the Denver-Aurora b
order.
Monsoon season began about July 1 and is expected to run through the 1st or
second wk of August. This was one of the largest storms to hit the metro area
since the season began.
"Denver waited, and they got the granddaddy of the storm," Doesken said.
MYREF: 20110710090001 msg2011071013686
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Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Drought, hot weather pose obstacles to NC farmers
[According to the CEI the US "south" region is seeing
a decrease in drought indicators over time; it's the NW region
showing the largest threat for drought].
Renee Elder
AP/CharlotteObserver
Sat, Jul. 09, 2011
Raleigh, N.C. -- Corn crops are dying and tomatoes are withering on the vine
in portions of eastern N Carolina, where hot weather and dry conditions could
add up to serious losses for the region's farmers, according to agricultural
agents.
Thirteen coastal counties are now in extreme drought, the second-highest of 5
drought classifications. Sixty-eight other counties range from severe drought
to abnormally dry, said Sarah Young of the state Drought Management Advisory Cou
ncil.
Young said it was the 1st time since 2008 that any portion of the state has
been labeled as being in extreme drought.
"I heard some of the corn in Pender County was burned all the way up to the
tips, not from the wildfires they've been having, but the heat," state
climatologist Ryan Boyles said. "We are seeing widespread losses and, in some
cases, crop insurance is already being filed because no amount of additional
rain could help."
While some crops like cotton and soybeans are capable of weathering extreme
conditions as long as they get occasional significant rainfall, others, such
as corn, are more particular, officials said.
"That's why they call them the billion-dollar rains," Boyle said. "When the
rain comes at the right time in the right areas, you're talking about
substantial money. If not, it's substantial losses."
Most corn crops pollinate and flower in June, requiring moderate temperatures
and plenty of hydration. However, this June many eastern parts of the state
logged fairly consistent highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s. Rainfall for the m
was below normal, averaging 1.8 inches statewide - about 1/2 of the normal
3.5-inch average, weather service officials said.
April, May and June have been the driest on record for areas near Wilmington
and New Bern, according to Boyles.
Also feeling the heat are growers of commercial vegetables like tomatoes,
squash and cucumbers, says Robeson County horticultural specialist Kerrie Roach.
"Especially for tomatoes this year, it's been really rough," Roach
said. "Tomatoes don't set fruit when it's above about 90 degrees, depending on
the variety. So the heat this y has been especially limiting."
Corn is N Carolina's biggest row crop, with 900k acres planted in 2011,
according to US Department of Agriculture statistics. Corn harvested $327 mn
in income for the state's farmers last year.
The largest state crop by revenue is still tobacco, valued at about $706
million. Industry officials estimated that N Carolina growers planted about
175k acres this year, an increase of about 7k acres.
North Carolina's cotton crop has seen a large jump in acreage - 38% -
due to the increase in commodity prices. USDA figures show growers planted
760k acres in cotton in 2011.
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[On knowing your constituents:]
I always thought faremers were a gullible bunch!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 9 Feb 2011 12:09 +1100
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Experts demystify link between extreme weather and climate change
PHOTO: Plant sprouts are seen as small streams of water travel in the cracks
of a dried-up river channel on a branch of the Hanjiang River in Wuhan,
China's Hubei province, May 25, 2011. The worst drought in 50 y has affected
nearly 10 mn people in 4 central provinces, Xinhua News Agency reported.
Soumya Karlamangla
11 Jul 2011 18:58
London (AlertNet) - Scientists tackled the highly debated, and somewhat
perplexing, relationship between climate change and weather disasters at the
recent launch of a US magazine series on the subject, concluding that an
indisputable connection exists between the two.
"The link between climate change and extreme weather is not so much
theoretical as observational," Fred Guterl, executive editor of monthly
magazine Scientific American, told reporters on a conference call late last
month. "It's possible to look at this and really begin to see, in a way that
you can measure, that this is not really just business as usual in terms of
weather. There really is a climate signal."
The three-part series in Scientific American by science journalist John Carey
was funded by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, which is based in
Arlington, Virginia.
In conjunction, Pew Center experts Jay Gulledge and Dan Huber have released a
report that attempts to demystify the impacts of climate change on global
weather conditions, and were also on hand to discuss their findings.
Gulledge explained to journalists that much of the confusion surrounding
global warming and extreme weather events - including floods, droughts and
heat waves - stems from the public's desire for definitive cause-and-effect
answers and scientists' unwillingness to provide them.
"The question, `Did climate change cause this event?' is just a scientifically
illogical question. It doesn't comport with the definition of climate because
that is an average over time," he said. Because the word "climate" refers to
a mean value, one cannot draw a straight line between global warming and a
certain hurricane, for instance, he explained.
The paper puts it like this: if the norm used to be one hurricane pa and
then after global warming started, there were 2 hurricanes per year,
scientists cannot determine which was caused by climate change because the 2
are indistinguishable. The effect of climate change is the increase in the
average number of hurricanes.
"The upshot is that one event doesn't actually have information about climate
change and vice versa," Gulledge said. "So it becomes this question that
people focus on that science fundamentally has no answer for."
But that does not mean extreme weather events in the recent past are not, at
least partially, the product of global warming.
WEATHER EQUIVALENT OF SPEEDING
The Pew Center report refers to the barrage of weather disasters that plagued
the world last year. 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest y globally since
1880, with 19 countries reaching their highest temperatures ever, the largest
number of new records in a single year.
Parts of Pakistan endured Asia's hottest temperatures in history; Russia lost
56k people to an unprecedented heat wave; and China's Yunan province saw its
worst drought in 100 years. It was also the wettest y since 1990, bringing
deadly floods to Pakistan, Brazil, Australia, and many areas of the United State
s.
Yet while climate change did not directly cause these events, it is
responsible for their elevated frequency and heightened intensity, according
to the report.
"Just as speeding increases the risk of a deadly auto accident, but cannot be
conclusively assigned as the cause of an accident, a particular heat wave is
not directly caused by global warming, but has a higher risk of occurrence and
of being intense because of global warming," the analysis states.
Floods and droughts occurred long before any human-induced changes to the
surface temperature of the earth. But recent large-scale shifts - over the
past 50 years, total rainfall has risen by 7% and temperatures continue to
reach new highs - have made extreme weather events in general more common and
more dangerous.
"What matters is that there is a statistical record of these events occurring
with increasing frequency and/or intensity over time, that this trend is
consistent with expectations from global warming, and that our understanding
of climate physics indicates that this trend should continue into the future
as the world continues to warm," the report says.
Rather than trying to predict the details of specific catastrophic events,
policymakers should collaborate with scientists to understand these evolving
trends in weather patterns, which will undoubtedly play a role in future
disasters as global warming continues, the researchers recommend.
"The signal of climate change is emerging from the noise of immense
variability of weather," Scientific American's Carey said. "If you look at an
individual event, it wasn't caused by climate change, but the intensity, the
size, whatever, was caused by climate change."
MYREF: 20110712070001 msg2011071221559
[232 more news items]
---
Scientists are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Chicago storms: Record numbers left without power as storm smacks
75 mph winds topple power lines, down trees, shut businesses
chicagotribune.com
July 12, 2011
A fierce, fast-moving storm left a record 836k customers without power Mon, as
75 mph winds ripped down power lines, tossed tree limbs onto roads and
railroad tracks and forced businesses to close throughout the Chicago region.
"It was just instant darkness," said Nancy Hirsch, of Crystal Lake, who does
not expect to see her electricity return anytime soon. "It's a mess. My
flashlights are charged and ready."
Despite the ominous clouds and wind damage, the thunderstorm caused few
injuries and dropped a negligible amount of rain. During the storm's peak,
more ComEd customers lost power than in any storm over the last 13 years, with
more than 1/2 a mn still in the dark late Mon afternoon, according to the
utility officials.
The N suburbs were hit the hardest. Schools, gas stations, public buildings,
restaurants and attractions including 6 Flags Great America in Gurnee
closed, with ComEd predicting that it could take days to restore power in some a
reas.
The swath of storm cells that rolled through the region is called a "bow echo"
because it is shaped like an archer's bow. Damaging winds are often associated
with the fast-moving storms. They occur several times a year, said Ben
Deubelbeiss, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
In Waukegan, dozens of people were evacuated from Pine Grove Apartments, where
gusts tore off parts of the roof on 2 buildings.
"I was crying and trying to go downstairs," said Leticia Gallardo, a resident
who tried to carry her nephew, a toddler, to safety. She spoke Spanish through
her daughter, who acted as translator. "Everything was flying. A tree right in
front burst. I ran out with my shoes off, barefoot. My nephew was naked."
Metra sent out more than 80 service advisories because of delays on its lines,
primarily caused by high winds taking down trees and branches and blocking
tracks, said Metra spokeswoman Judy Pardonnet.
One Union Pacific N line train was stuck for hours on the tracks after tree
limbs and fallen power lines blocked it. Train 328 left Waukegan at 7:50
a.m. and was due at Ogilvie Transportation Center at 9:05 a.m., but it didn't
arrive until about 2 p.m., Pardonnet said.
The train's passengers were allowed to get off at the Highland Park and Lake
Forest stations.
In Gurnee, large trees and power lines toppled along Grand Avenue W of
Illinois Highway 21, forcing traffic to be rerouted near the 6 Flags theme park.
A Cook County sheriff's deputy and 2 Cook County jail inmates performing
community service suffered injuries in Palos Hills when the high winds damaged
a festival tent at Moraine Valley Community College, officials said. The
workers were dismantling the tent, put up for the Palos Hills Friendship Fest
over the weekend.
"As soon as they released the tent when they were bringing it down, that's
when the storm hit," said Pat O'Connor, the college's police chief. "It was
one of those quirky things."
McHenry County College and other school districts canceled summer classes
because of outages. In Rolling Meadows and Hoffman Estates, 2 elementary
schools will reopen Tue, using generators to provide electricity for a Park
District program and summer classes, said Scott Thompson, superintendent of
Community Consolidated School District 15.
The Palatine-based school district learned that it needs to provide an
alternative to its electricity-powered phone line during outages, Thompson said.
"When it doesn't work, parents just get a busy signal," he said. "Parents
should be able to call a number that will work whether electricity is on or not.
"
Stuart Friedman, co-owner of Gold Medal Cleaners in Wilmette, said he dodged a
bullet with June's storm that knocked out power across the street on Central
Avenue. This time, it was his turn to stand in the dark, while nearby
restaurants remained open.
"I'm just open so people can drop off clothes," Friedman said, as motorized
racks sat motionless behind him. "I can't use my computer, so I don't know
where their clothes are. And I can't get anything off the conveyers."
Libertyville officials, concerned about the heat, opened the civic center to
residents without electricity.
And in Elmhurst, a frustrated David Gray, owner of Fresco's Cafe, complained
that this latest power outage was nothing new.
MYREF: 20110712140002 msg201107121202
[229 more news items]
---
>Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?
Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Fans brave extreme weather for final Harry Potter premiere in Sydney and NY
NewsCore
July 12, 2011 7:41AM
Hundreds of Harry Potter fans have braved the elements in Sydney and New York
for the premiere of the final instalment in the billion-dollar wizarding franchi
se.
Though the film's stars, Daniel Radcliffe, Emma Watson and Rupert Grint, were
all no-shows on George Street last night for the Sydney premiere of Harry
Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II, Australian cinema fans and Harry
Potter enthusiasts alike made the most of the premiere.
Among the celebrity fans who ignored chilly conditions to attend the
long-awaited conclusion to the successful film series were Jessica Tovey, 2WS
radio pinup Brendan Jones, Dieter Brummer, the cast of Hairspray, Jay Laga'aia
and Kerri-Anne Kennerley.
The school holidays saw the guest list bolstered by a young contingent of
Sydneysiders enjoying a night out in the city.
Melbourne also played host to a premiere screening of the movie, with
celebrities including Sam Newman and Alex Fevola walking the red carpet.
Meanwhile, in New York, 100s of fans camped out outside Lincoln Centre
overnight for the movie's premiere despite the stifling heat.
Following the world premiere in London on July 7, stars of the film travelled
to New York to walk the red carpet outside Avery Fisher Hall for the US
premiere of the final instalment in the Harry Potter saga.
Die-hard fans of the books and movies began to take their places outside the
theatre as early as Sat, in hopes of catching a glimpse of the film's
stars. However, they had more to deal with than growing crowds as temperatures
reached 32C in the Big Apple overnight.
Some fans struggled with the rising temperatures, which prompted a heat
advisory for New York City lasting until tonight.
"I really hope this premiere is worth it because the weather is unbearable,"
said Gabby, a Long Island, N.Y., native. Others, however, were hardly phased
by the conditions.
"I'm dealing with the heat because I'm really just motivated to see people,"
said Chelsea, of Baltimore. "It's not even about the autographs or the
pictures, it really is just about being in their presence, because they just
helped me through my childhood and defined who I am, so that's really worth it
to me."
MYREF: 20110712150001 msg2011071218442
[229 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Heat hits record high on Sun [MO, US]
Roseann Moring
Springfield News-leader
Jul 10 2011
How to avoid heat-related diseases
» Drink plenty of water, even if you do not feel thirsty; avoid drinks
that contain alcohol or caffeine
» Wear light-weight, loose-fitting, light-colored clothing, hats and
sunglasses and use sunscreen
» Avoid strenuous work or exercise outside during the hottest part of
the day (If that is not practical, take frequent breaks and remember to
drink plenty of water.)
» Use a buddy system between co-workers in high heat-stress jobs to
watch for signs of heat stress
» Check on senior adults, young children and pets
» Never leave infants, children, senior adults or pets in a parked vehicle
» Eat small, frequent meals and avoid high protein foods, hot foods and
heavy meals
» Stay in an air-conditioned facility; if your home is not air
conditioned, visit a shopping center, public library, community center,
cooling center or other air-conditioned facility
» Do not rely on fans as your primary cooling device; fans re-circulate
room air and may actually increase your body temperature and your risk
of heat-related illness
» Ask your pharmacist or health care provider if medication you are
taking puts you at increased risk for heat-related illness
» Provide pets with extra water and access to a shady environment
Source: Springfield/Greene County Health Department
Sun was the hottest July 10 in the 130-year history of Springfield National
Weather Service records.
A little after 3 p.m. the temperature reached 102 degrees, according to the
NWS. The previous record was 100 degrees on July 10, 1980.
The temperature around this time is usually closer to 90 degrees, said NWS
meteorologist Andy Boxell.
"It's certainly dangerous out there," he said.
Sun was also the 1st day this y the temperature in Springfield topped 100 deg.
There is at least one benefit to such warm weather: Wehrenberg Theatres is
reviving a program where they sell adult tickets for children's prices during
a heat advisory or excessive heat warning.
Adults might be able to get their movie tickets more cheaply for awhile -- hot
weather will probably continue through today and Tue.
Thunderstorms might cool Springfield down later in the week, but temperatures
will rise again into the weekend, Boxell said.
An extreme heat warning is likely to continue through today.
There is a cooling center run by the Salvation Army at Kansas and Chestnut
Expressway that is open during heat advisories.
MYREF: 20110712210001 msg201107122288
[226 more news items]
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
2011 already costliest y for natural disasters
Expert: 'We are rewriting the financial and economic history of disasters on a
global scale'
MSNBC
Jul 12 2011
Natural disasters across the globe have made 2011 the costliest on record in
terms of property damage, and that's just 6 m in, according to a report
released Tue by a leading insurer that tracks disasters.
Moreover, that record builds on a trend of recent costly y -- which means more
expensive insurance for consumers over the long haul.
The 1st 6 m saw $265 bn in economic losses, well above the previous record of
$220 bn set for all of 2005 (the y Hurricane Katrina struck), according to
Munich RE, a multinational that insures insurance companies.
[20% is well above what would be expected for inflation or population
increases].
Japan's earthquake and tsunami last March account for the biggest chunk ($210
bn), as well as most deaths (15,500 dead with 7,300 still counted as
missing), but even without that cost factored in, overall losses still exceed
the 10-year average, the company stated.
After Japan, the costliest disasters so far this y were New Zealand's
earthquake in Feb ($20 bn), the twister outbreak in the US Southeast
($7.5 bn), and Australia's flooding in Dec-Jan ($7.3 bn).
2011 is "one for the record books," Bob Hartwig, head of the Insurance
Information Institute, told reporters being briefed on the study. "We are
rewriting the financial and economic history of disasters on a global scale."
For the United States, 98 events (storms, flooding, fires and earthquakes)
left $27 bn in economic losses, more than double the 10-year average of $11.8
bn, Munich RE stated.
The total number of events is trending up as well: The 1st 1/2 of 2011 has
already produced more events than most entire y before 2006, the company found.
The vast majority of US damage, $23.5 bn, was from twisters and other
severe storms. Twisters have also claimed nearly 600 lives this year.
2011 will go down as "the y of the tornado," predicted Carl Hedde, a risk
analyst at Munich RE.
The climate connection
Munich RE wasn't shy about drawing a connection between climate change and
what it sees as longer windows for extreme weather.
While the trend for earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions is fairly
stable, severe weather events are on the upswing, said Peter Hoppe, who runs
the company's Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Center.
There is "higher potential of thunderstorm development in the last decade" and
"more dates pa during which storms can develop," he added.
Munich RE has factored in increased population, and thus more property, to see
if those are behind the rise in economic losses.
But the data show those alone "cannot explain" the increase, "so there is a
significant trend in these losses," he said.
Natural events like La Nina and El Nino, ocean cycles that alter weather
systems, are certainly factors as well, but warming temperatures appear to be
adding a layer "on top" of that natural variability, Hoppe said.
He also cited a climate connection between Australia's severe floods and
rising ocean temperatures off the coast there. That means "more evaporation
and higher potential for these extreme downpours," he said.
"It can only be explained by global warming," he added.
Raising rates
The enormous losses translate into more payouts by insurers, which reduces
their bottom lines.
"It's definitely the worst 1/2 y for the insurance industry" on record, said Hop
pe.
So what does the trend mean for consumers? Higher insurance rates.
While "rates do not bounce up and down based on events in a single year," the
previous 3 y were also costly in the United States, Hartwig said.
"So we're in the midst of a longer term trend," he added, citing the fact that
3 of the 15 most expensive events globally happened in last 18 months: Japan's
quake/tsunami, and earthquakes in New Zealand and Chile. If you add the US
tornadoes this spring as a single event, he noted, that'd make it in the top
15 as well.
In the United States, the increase in events is "pushing up the cost of
providing insurance in many parts," Hartwig said.
"Insurers have begun to reflect that in their rates and will continue to do so."
1. For natural disasters, 2011 started with much of Queensland, Australia,
swamped by rain-triggered flooding. Parts of Brisbane are seen here on
Jan. 13. Munich RE, a multinational that insures insurance companies,
calculated that the Australia flooding left $7.3 bn in economic losses, making
it the 4th costliest natural disaster in the 1st 1/2 of 2011. The global bill
was $265 bn, Munich RE said, well above the previous record of $220 bn in 2005.
2. Munich RE produced this map showing where 355 natural disasters hit in the
1st 1/2 of 2011. The larger the dot the more significant the disaster.
3. Brazil also saw a natural disaster early in 2011 -- rain-triggered
landslides that killed nearly 800 and left 14k homeless. Here rescue workers
search for victims in Teresopolis, near Rio de Janeiro, on Jan. 12.
4. Australia saw a double whammy within a m -- flooding followed by 180-mph
Cyclone Yasi. This damage was in the coastal town of Cardwell on
Feb 3. Amazingly, no deaths were reported from Australia's biggest cyclone in
a century.
5. New Zealand saw the second costliest natural disaster in the 1st 1/2 of
2011, a Feb 21 earthquake that Munich RE estimates left $20 bn in economic
losses. The death toll reached 181. This damage was seen in Avonside on
Feb 25.
6. A tsunami wave hits homes in Natori, Japan, on March 11. The largest
earthquake in Japan's history triggered the tsunami, which slammed the eastern
coast. The 2 events killed at least 15,500 people and left behind $210 bn in
property damange, Munich RE estimates, making it the largest disaster so far
this year.
7. Property damage from Japan's disaster was mostly homes and businesses, but
included infrastructure like ships, railway lines and other transportation.
8. The US saw its deadliest outbreak of twisters in 50 y hit the Southeast in
late April. The death toll reached 280 people and damage spread across 5
states, including this area in Georgia's Bartow County. Munich RE estimates
$7.5 bn in property losses.
9. Flooding in the US S and Southeast have so far this y left $2.1 bn in
damage, Munich RE says, and that figure will rise since many areas are still
under water. This area of St. Francisville, La., was swamped by Mississippi
River floodwaters on May 20.
10. April's tornado outbreak was followed by a single twister that flattened
parts of Joplin, Mo., on May 24, killing 159 people. Tornadoes and other
severe weather in the US left $23.5 bn in property damage in the 1st 1/2
of 2011, Munich RE said.
11. Wildfires across the Southwest and S were among the US natural
disasters in the 1st 1/2 of 2011. A firefighter on June 30 walks through an
area burned by the Las Conchas fire near Los Alamos, N.M. In Texas, more than
3 mn acres burned, destroying some 200 homes and businesses and causing $50 mn
in insured losses.
MYREF: 20110713070001 msg2011071312910
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---
This ***global warming**** appears to be HIGHLY LOCALISED!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 5 Feb 2011 21:59 +1100
Of course "global temperature are rising", we're emerging from an ICE AGE!!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Stifling heat grips 1/2 US -- records set
chicagotribune
5:04 p.m. CDT, July 12, 2011
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Stifling heat gripped 1/2 of the continental United States
on Tue with record high temperatures set in some parts of the Northeast.
The National Weather Service issued heat warnings or advisories for 24 states
stretching from parts of Texas and Oklahoma to the plains, the Mississippi
Valley and the E coast.
* Related
* Pictures: Heat wave 2011
* Graphic: Summer heat wave
* Graphic: Missouri River flooding
* Graphic: Keeping cool tips
* Graphic: People most at risk from the heat
Newark, New Jersey temperatures hovered at 99 degrees, Islip, New York at 93
degrees, and the mercury hit 97 degrees at John F. Kennedy airport in New
York. According to the weather service these are record highs for July 12.
But the heat will be short-lived on the E coast. "For the most part it's a one
day heat wave," said Chris Vaccaro, a spokesman for the weather service.
It was a different story in other parts of the country.
In Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, temperatures were approaching 100 degrees for the
14th consecutive day.
"It feels like an easy-bake oven outside," said Lara O'Leary, the spokeswoman
for Emergency Medical Services Authority, Oklahoma's largest ambulance service.
O'Leary said her agency responded to 110 heat related emergencies since the
1st heat alert was issued on June 17th.
"Even the heartiest of Oklahoman's is having trouble handling the heat," said
O'Leary. She admitted experiencing heat exhaustion while playing with her
8-year-old son outside on Mon. "I felt a little dizzy and I went inside and
cooled down," she said.
Temperatures in Columbia, S Carolina, could hit 100 degrees on Tue with
heat index values near 115 degrees.
The average high temperature for Columbia since June 1 has been 95 degrees,
the second highest average high for this period in more than 100 years,
according Hope Mizzell, S Carolina's State Climatologist. And the heat was
intensifying the drought conditions the entire state was experiencing.
The S Carolina Drought Response Committee will meet on Thu, and there's a
chance at least 1/2 of the state could be upgraded to a severe drought status
then, said Mizzell.
Air quality alerts were also in effect on the E coast in parts of New Jersey,
eastern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, N Carolina, and Georgia.
In addition to the sweltering heat, scattered thunderstorms that could produce
damaging winds and hail were in the forecast from southern Nebraska to
northern Kansas to parts of the mid-Atlantic from Southern Virginia to N Carolin
a.
This was the same system that hit the Chicago area yesterday leaving a record
868k customers without power.
As of midafternoon, 307k customers were still without power Tue, according to
ComEd, the utility company servicing the area. "We have asked for support
from neighboring utilities," said Tony Hernandez, a ComEd spokesman, who also
said 900 crews are working around the clock.
Crews from Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan were already in the area. Crews
from Tennessee, Alabama and Pennsylvania were on the way.
MYREF: 20110713130001 msg201107139900
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---
[W]omen are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
NASA image: hotter lows and hotter highs in the US
Related articles:
http://news.mongabay.com/2011/0629-hance_hotmap.html
Hot map hard to ignore: interactive map points out local climate impacts
(06/29/2011) A global interactive map has been developed by the Union of
Concerned Scientists (UCS) to highlight climate impacts already occurring
worldwide. From glacier melt risking water supplies in Bolivia to coral
bleaching off the coast of Florida, the Climate Hot Map employs the best in
climate science to bring home the impacts of global warming.
http://news.mongabay.com/2011/0613-petm_moukaddem.html
Current carbon releases faster than at any time on record
(06/13/2011) The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a period of global
warming that occurred nearly 56 mn y ago due to massive releases of greenhouse
gases, is frequently referenced as an analogue for projected climate
change. However, recent findings suggest the current rate of carbon release is
almost 10 times as rapid as at the peak of the PETM--and that biological
systems may be significantly less able to adapt.
Jeremy Hance
mongabay.com
July 13, 2011
http://photos.mongabay.com/j/climate_normals_january_min_lrg.jpg
Jan minimum temperature comparison from 2 30 y measurements: 1971-2000 and
1981-2010. Map courtesy of NASA.
http://photos.mongabay.com/j/climate_normals_july_max_lrg.jpg
July maximum temperature comparison from 2 30 y measurements: 1971-2000 and
1981-2010. Map courtesy of NASA.
New images show just how much US temperatures in July and Jan have changed
recently as the nation feels the impact of global climate change. Dubbed the
'new normals' of US climate, the maps focus on July maximums - typically the
hottest m of the y - and Jan minimums - typically the coldest month. While
both July highs and Jan lows warmed recently, Jan lows saw the biggest jump.
By contrasting temperatures from 1971-2000 and 1981-2010, the maps show
significant rises in temperatures in many parts of the country. While July
maximums saw some cooling in the Midwest (up to 1.5 degree Fahrenheit), the
temperatures rose elsewhere, including up to 3 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of
the W and Pacific Northwest.
Jan minimums rose even more starkly. Except for Florida and parts of the
Southeast, Jan minimums rose everywhere else, especially in the Midwest and
Rocky Mountains, where between 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 minimums jumped up to 4
degrees Fahrenheit.
All fifty states saw average temperatures rise between 1971-2000 and
1981-2010.
According to decades of research from 1000s of scientists, the world is
warming because of emissions of greenhouse gases from human actions, such as
burning fossil fuels and destroying forests.
During the 20th Century, the global average temperature rose about 1.33
degrees Fahrenheit (0.74 degrees Celsius). Expected impacts from climate
change include more frequent and worsening extreme weather events, greater
precipitation events (both rain and snow), worsening droughts for parts of the
world, global sea level rise due to polar melting, large-scale species
extinctions, ocean acidification, a rise in massive fires, changes in the
range of diseases, and many others. Water supplies, food production, societal
health, the global economy, and international stability are all expected to be
threatened by climate change.
Future warming depends on how rapidly global society brings down current
greenhouse gas emissions.
MYREF: 20110714040001 msg2011071419786
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---
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Substantial heat on the way: Models point to 2011's First Heat Wave this weekend
Credits: WSI
Chicago Weather Examiner
July 13, 2011
The main weather headlines for the upcoming weekend around here will not be on
any major severe weather threats, but will instead be on the possibility of
extreme heat in and around the Chicaogland area.
Early signs continue to indicate what could be the summer's most formidable
hot spell this weekend into early next wk across the region and for that
matter across a vast majority of the contiguous United States.
A sub-tropical high pressure that continues to unleash extreme heat across the
Plains will expand N and eastward late this week. The sub-tropical high is
expected to expand as far N as southern Canada and E toward the mid-atlantic
region.
Widespread 90+ degree temperatures with triple-digit heat indices will take
place across the Plains, Midwest, Deep South, and Mid-Atlantic regions this
weekend into at least early next week. Sections of as many as 34 states could
see temperatures in the 90s with triple digit heat indices.
Current model guidance continues to show the main axis of this ridge over the
Upper Midwest. The timeframe of the most intense heat will be from July 15 to
July 19. There are some signs of the heat weakening, but will do so briefly
before building back up. Very warm weather could be expected to last till
around July 28 with some breaks in the heat.
Intense heat is a normal function in July. Historically, the period from July
15 through July 28 is usually when Chicago experiences its hottest
temperatures. This is a scenario worth watching in the days ahead!
Model guidance continue to put a 597 mb height which resembles triple
digit heat over portions of the Upper Midwest and Plains on Sun. Model
guidance continue to put a 597 mb height which resembles triple digit heat
over portions of the Upper Midwest and Plains on Sun.
Slideshow: 6-10 day temperature map, hazards map, and 850 mb temp map
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-chicago/6-10-day-temperature-map-hazards-map-
and-850-mb-temp-map-picture
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-chicago/6-10-day-temperature-map-hazards-map-
and-850-mb-temp-map-picture
MYREF: 20110714200002 msg2011071414293
[226 more news items]
---
[Yasi is "the worst cyclone" to hit Qld:]
CORRECTION: The worst cyclone in history was the cat 5 Mahina in 1899.
[Bzzt! Thank you, come again!]
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 3 Feb 2011 15:12 +1100
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[mining lobby spin]
Nation Overheated, But Nowhere Near Record
[Amusing headline. The US "record" is Death Valley at 154 consecutive days
over 100 F. So this is yardstick we're comparing New York with these days?]
Related:
* The 9 Hottest Places on Earth
http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/9-hottest-places-earth-1720/
* Weirdo Weather: 7 Rare Weather Events
http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/weird-weather-anomalies-110302-1183/
* Are Extra-Hot Summers Here to Stay?
http://www.livescience.com/14458-heat-waves-increase-climate-change.html
Brett Israel
OurAmazingPlanet
Jul 14, 2011 1:07 PM ET
This summer, some cities have recorded temperatures of at least 100 degrees
Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius) for more than a consecutive week, but none
is close to catching the all-time record holder for the most 100 degree days
in a row.
The country is boiling due to an oppressive heat wave that is lingering in the
heartland. Oklahoma City has had only 2 days this m with temperatures
cooler than 100 F. And they aren't alone: Heat advisories are in effect across
the Great Plains. Across the country this month, nearly 700 heat records have
been either tied or broken, according toNational Climatic Data Center.
But none of those records will match the all-time heat wave record. That
weather record belongs to the town of Marble Bar in Western Australia. From
Oct 31, 1923 to April 7, 1924, the tiny town scorched with 160 consecutive
days over 100 F, according Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.
Their average high temperature is more than 100 F for Jan, Feb, March, Nov and
Dec (the summer m in the Southern Hemisphere). On average, Marble Bar has
about 154 days of 100 F temperatures each year.
In the United States, Death Valley has come close to Marble Bar's record, with
154 consecutive days of at least 100 degrees F, in 2001.
Stubborn ridge
Thankfully, the weather in the US heartland will eventually give way to cooler
air, even if not anytime soon.
The atmospheric phenomenon fueling the hot weather is called a high-pressure
ridge. This ridge is essentially a long area of high atmospheric
pressure. These ridges often contain dry air, and block potentially cooling
clouds and rain.
The high-pressure pattern has settled over the middle of the country. Cooler
air hasn't been able to break through.
Sweaty cities
The heat wave is worst in places that have also been hit by severe
drought. Because of the lack of rain, these cities have seen higher
temperatures much earlier than usual.
Oklahoma City has already seen more than 20 100-degree days this year. Its
yearly average is 12 100-degree days. On June 9, the thermometer hit 110
degrees F (43 degrees C), the city's highest temperature in 15
years. [Related: What's the Highest Temperature Ever Recorded in the U.S.?]
"As wecontinue through July and August, we're probably going to set some
records," said Daryl Williams of the National Weather Service in Norman, Okla.
Oklahoma City isn't alone in its suffering. Wichita, Kan., and Austin, Texas,
have both surpassed their annual average of 100-degree days. Dallas is
closing in on its average.
MYREF: 20110715154129 msg2011071514863
[229 more news items]
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[Before The (2011) Flood:]
The recent Murray Darling run-off since the floods would have provided
enought irrigation water to last at least 15 years.
Instead it has all run out to sea!
Crazy anti-dam greenies!
-- "BONZO"@27.32.240.172 [100 nyms and counting], 12 Nov 2010 14:05 +1100
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Storm broke 24-hour rain record
Cheyenne hail damage expected to be in "tens of millions"
AP
July 14, 2011 - 3:49 pm
Cheyenne, Wyo. -- Damage from the thunderstorm that dropped golfball-sized
hail on Cheyenne is expected to reach into the "tens of millions" according to
the insurance industry.
The executive director of the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information
Association, Carole Walker, said Thu that the damage was so high partly
because Tue's storm hit during rush hour when so many cars were on the road or
in parking lots.
She said insurers are bringing in catastrophe teams and setting up mobile
units to respond to handle the claims.
A more precise damage estimate isn't expected until next week.
The storm shredded trees and also damaged some private planes at the city's airp
ort.
The Wyoming Tribune Eagle reported that the storm dumped 2.4 inches of rain
over 24 hours, breaking the previous record of 1.7 inches for the day.
MYREF: 20110715160002 msg2011071526488
[228 more news items]
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Heatwave Could Last Into Next Week
[14 days and counting, some places...]
Kulshrax
Online News Website
July 15, 2011
Much of the central US is warned to expect a severe heatwave and other extreme
weather starting today and, in some areas, extending to Tue.
The National Weather Service has warned about excessive heat - up to 110
degrees - in states such as Nebraska, S Dakota, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma.
One warning, for Oklahoma City, spoke about temperatures reaching 110 degrees
with "little overnight relief with low temperatures 75 to 84."
"The risk of heat-related illnesses continue," the warning stated, "and may
increase with each hot day and warm night, especially for those without air
conditioning. Check on friends, family and pets."
In addition to the heat and humidity, severe thunderstorms are likely coming
for the northern plains, and flash flood warnings have been issued for
sections of Tennessee and N Dakota.
The warnings are the latest development in what has been a wild-weather summer
for much of the country. Extreme drought conditions have hit more than a dozen
states, prompting the governor of Oklahoma, Mary Fallin, to implore her
constituents to pray for rain (Texas Governor Rick Perry did the same earlier
this year). Extended drought conditions can adversely affect the agricultural
industry and increase chances of wildfires.
The National Weather Service and other public agencies are also reiterating
warnings about the dangers of heatstroke. Precautions such as staying indoors
and drinking lots of water (avoid caffeine and alcohol) are stressed. The NWS
stated that for those who have to be outside, try to limit strenuous activity
to early morning or late evening, and wear loose-fitting clothing while
staying hydrated. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration
recommended that outdoors workers be granted frequent breaks in shaded or
air-conditioned areas.
Those younger than 65 are advised to check on their elderly friends and
family, as heatwaves can be especially threatening to the elderly. As MSNBC
reported, a 2006 Kent State University study found that such warnings often go
unheeded by seniors because they don't regard themselves as elderly.
MYREF: 20110716200001 msg201107168896
[226 more news items]
---
>Remember who you're talking to. :)
>The guy quotes Dyson without knowing Dyson accepts AGW;
Dyson accepts AGW???
News to me!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], Mar 2 16:10 EST 2011
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Heat wave lingers, submerges US in sizzling temperatures
Related News
* Another blast of heat to hit US Thu, Jul 14 2011
* Heat wave starts to ebb in eastern 1/2 of country Wed, Jul 13 2011
* Stifling heat grips 1/2 U.S., some records set Tue, Jul 12 2011
* Storms trigger near-record Chicago power outages Tue, Jul 12 2011
Molly O'Toole
Reuters
Credit: Reuters/Lucas Jackson
Sat Jul 16, 2011 4:45pm EDT
Washington (Reuters) - Fiery reds and oranges nearly covered the United States
on meteorologist maps as a massive heat wave hit hard in much of the country
on Sat.
Temperatures averaged up to 15 degrees above normal, with most peaks in the
90s but over-100-degree heat expected to strike from Montana to New Mexico,
according to lead meteorologists for The Weather Channel and The National
Weather Service.
The NWS issued excessive heat warnings and watches for the Midwest from Texas
to Canada, and heat index values over 110 degrees are possible for portions of
the central and eastern US by the middle of next week.
Locations affected are expected to see temperatures and heat indexes of up to
117 degrees, including cities like Minneapolis where that is unusual.
"The stage is being set for a massive heat wave to develop," the National
Weather service had warned on Thu.
Paired with oppressive humidity, the already high temperatures will feel even
hotter, as measured by heat indexes.
"When your body temperatures rises on a hot day, as much as 2 liters of sweat
can pour out of ... sweat glands each hour," Weather Channel Senior
Meteorologist Jonathan Erdman stated on Sat, meaning your body has a harder
time keeping cool.
The latest wave is also dangerous because meteorologists predict it will hang
on through as late as Fri of next week.
Following record heat that has already blasted the country in past weeks, the
prolonged high temperatures are even more dangerous.
BREAKING RECORDS
While the y is entering its hottest time -- the latter 1/2 of July -- an
exceptional drought is exacerbating summer heat that has broken daily,
monthly, and all-time record highs over the last couple of months.
Through spring and summer, drought and wildfires have affected millions of
acres of cropland, forests and grasslands in the United States, the
U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Fri.
In a statement directed to farmers and ranchers in states affected by extreme
weather, the USDA said drought conditions stretch from Arizona to the southern
Atlantic states.
In Colorado, the NWS forecasts temperatures to soar near triple digits in the
northern part of the state over the weekend, after 10 straight days of monsoon r
ains.
The southern part of the state did not see the rains, and it remains in the
grips of a multiyear drought that prompted Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper
this wk to request federal drought assistance in 8 counties.
Most of Utah is expected to see temperatures in the 90s over the weekend,
according to the NWS, which also issued a red-flag warning for extreme
wildfire conditions in the southwest and central parts of the state.
Several deaths in Tennessee have been attributed to the prolonged heat wave --
in a few cases, due to a lack of proper air conditioning.
Memphis Light Gas and Water began an emergency reconnection program Fri for
people who had been cut off for lack of payment, allowing them to be
reconnected to the electricity that powers cooling systems for one price, no
matter how much they owe.
Next wk the massive high pressure ridge suppressing storm and cold fronts is
expected to move from the central United States to the east, spreading
still-increasing heat to the Mississippi and Ohio regions and E Coast.
MYREF: 20110717090002 msg201107178259
[229 more news items]
---
[On knowing your constituents:]
I always thought faremers were a gullible bunch!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 9 Feb 2011 12:09 +1100
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Heatwave bakes US Midwest; E Coast is next
Related News
* Heatwave bakes US Midwest, threatens to move E 12:54pm EDT
* Heat wave plunges much of US into a deep fryer Sat, Jul 16 2011
* Heat wave lingers, submerges US in sizzling temperatures Sat, Jul 16 2011
* Upper Midwest braces for dangerous and long heat wave Fri, Jul 15 2011
* Another blast of heat to hit US Thu, Jul 14 2011
James B. Kelleher
Reuters
Sun Jul 17, 2011 2:43pm EDT
Chicago, July 17 (Reuters) - An oppressive and potentially deadly summertime
mix of sizzling temperatures and high humidity baked a large swath of the
United States on Sun, pushing afternoon heat indexes in dozens of cities to
dangerous levels.
Forecasters warned the heatwave would persist through much of the coming wk
and cautioned residents in more than 3 dozen states to take extra precautions.
The National Weather Service posted excessive heat warnings for much of the
nation's midsection, including Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri,
Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, as well as S and N Dakota, where forecasters
predicted heat indexes could hit 115 degrees Fahrenheit.
"This will likely be the most significant heat wave the region has experienced
in at least the last 5 years," the weather service said.
Cities especially hard hit by the heat included Rapid City, S Dakota;
Springfield, Illinois; and Minneapolis, Minnesota, where AccuWeather.com
meteorologists were predicting long-standing high-temperature records would
fall this week.
Kristina Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, said the heatwave
would likely affect more than 40 states.
All the states will see temperatures of 90 degrees Fahrenheit or higher, she
said, and "a large number of them will bake above 100 degrees for days on end."
The scorching weather is the latest in a series of meteorological problems to
best the Midwest in recent months.
The list includes the devastating tornado that ripped through Joplin,
Missouri, in late May, killing nearly 160 people and destroying more than 8k
homes and other structures, as well as the ongoing flooding along the Missouri
River, which has triggered wk of evacuations and other emergency measures from
Montana through Missouri.
While the heat wave is currently focused on the High Plains and Mississippi
Valley, it is expected to press E by the middle of the week, the weather
service said.
In Chicago, where high heat and humidity warnings were twinned with an alert
for poor air quality, temperatures were expected to hit 95 degrees by
afternoon, creating heat indexes as high as 105.
In Minnesota, the heat wave was expected to continue through Wed with possible
thunderstorms in some parts. Highs in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area could
reach 94 degrees F on Sun, and 97 degrees from Mon through Wed.
The weather service is projecting possibly 6 consecutive days of temperatures
at 90 degrees or higher in the Twin Cities, the longest stretch to far this
year, but short of records, meteorologist Jim Richardson said.
"Basically, (Sun) through Wed looks to be the warmest regime and humidity
levels up there as well," Richardson said.
By mid wk many locations on the E Coast will have heat index values
approaching or exceeding 100 degrees, including Washington, D.C., the weather
service said.
In St. Louis, temperatures are expected to reach 96 degrees on Sun, 98 on Mon
and touch the 100-degree mark on Tue. The heat index values are expected to
range from 105 to 115 degrees.
In the Kansas City area, heat index values are expected to range from 105 to
110 degrees on Sun and then average about 110 degrees through Fri with
oppressive heat and humidity.
MYREF: 20110718083001 msg2011071822012
[227 more news items]
---
What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100