I am familiar with his 1920 lecture and I believe that Einstein believed
in the aether until the day he died. In 1920 he knew that his theory
could be seen either as simply empirical, or as simply a specific way of
approaching Lorentz's maths. His 1920 lecture states that his one and
only objection to Lorentz's theory was the asymmetry in the theoretical
structure. The idea that there was a unique FoR stationary w.r.t the
aether which was not distinguishable. Essentially what he was after was
an aether which did not imply such a unique FoR. His "aether without the
immobility of Lorentz's". His ideas on the subject are however couched
in the vaguest of terms and the truth is he never did come up with an
alternative theoretical structure. The matter was taken out of his hands
when an arbitrary decision was made by the physics community, now
dominated by mathematicians, that theories did not need theoretical
structures, in fact they were a bad thing. Thus Maxwell's aether theory
became Maxwell's equations Einstein's mathematics was accepted as
preferable to Lorentz's theory (same mathematics) as it was uncluttered
by a theoretical structure and bizarrely Einstein was credited with
getting rid of the aether when he had come down firmly in its favour.
Some time after that Einstein went with the flow as it were
" We can distinguish various kinds of theories
in physics. Most of them are constructive.
They attempt to build up a picture of the more
complex phenomena out of the materials of a
relatively simple formal scheme from which
they start out. Thus the kinetic theory of gases
seeks to reduce mechanical, thermal, and
diffusional processes to movements of molecules
-- i.e., to build them up out of the hypothesis of
molecular motion. When we say that we have
succeeded in understanding a group of natural
processes we invariably mean that a constructive
theory has been found which covers the
processes in question.
Along with this most important class of
theories there exists a second, which I will
call "principle-theories." These employ the
analytic, not the synthetic, method. The elements
which form their bases and starting-point are not
hypothetically constructed but empirically
discovered ones, general characteristics of
natural processes, principles that give rise to
mathematically formulated criteria which these
separate processes or the theoretical
representations of them have to satisfy.
The advantages of the constructive theory
are completeness, adaptability, and clearness,
those of the principle theory are logical
perfection and security of the foundations.
The theory of relativity belongs to the latter
class. In order to grasp its nature, one needs
first of all to become acquainted with the
principles on which it is based".
Found in: "What is the Theory of Relativity?",
Einstein, Ideas and Opinions, Three Rivers
Press, p. 228-9.
His postulates have become "principles" (empirically discovered) and his
"theory" mathematics derived from those principles.
Alfonso