Tropical storm warning

[Weatherlawyer]

On Friday, 22 May 2015 13:58:27 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
> The MetO visibility forecast for Sennen might be GOOD, but in practice it's been thick sea mist all morning.
>
> Don't despair though, around in Mount's Bay the mist cleared by 09:00 to leave broken thin low cloud. It's now around 17C in Penzance, and feeling quite muggy. In the mist at St Ives it's 13C, as it is at Camborne. So not the big coast to coast temperature difference there can be in these conditions. No repeat of the 10C difference seen in April.
>
> Compare Sennen http://www.sennen-cove.com/harbourcam.htm with just the other side of Land's End at the Minack http://www.minack.com/webcams.htm
>
> (If there's no big difference when you look, there has been for a few hours, trust me!)

It looks like you are getting the hang of local conditions for forecasting tropical storms. I can't say it is before time though. Any slower and you would appear quite dawlish.

What do you think of that ocean of vapour pooling underneath Australia, quite something is it not?

When a significant pause occurs between epicentres the absence of medium magnitude quakes generally indicates a large storm with the peak and path of the storm lying on the epicentre. Since the recent pause was over a Mag 6.8 and a Mag 6.9 and there is an anticyclone in the mid Atlantic we should expect the magnificent. The problem is I can't recall the last time I saw one like that(unless you count Bougainville of course)

[Weatherlawyer]

I mentioned the North Pacific charts from Hawaii last time I collected data from them. There is a likelihood of earthquakes in the region as far as I can tell. If there is, then they will be on the fronts shown those are most likely to be at around the 1016 line there are some circles of that nature showing but I wouldn't know how recent any such epicentre stuff is likely to be.

As I recollect the storms that came across was a pretty severe one that reached deep into the sub-tropics it was quite a powerful storm and lasted as far as I recollect for quite a number of days affecting quite a lot of New Zealand IIRC this storm led to the events in Nepal but I don't remember clearly how that developed, it waslate in April and is all a bit of a blur.

[Weatherlawyer]

>
> I mentioned the North Pacific charts from Hawaii last time I collected data from them. There was a likelihood of earthquakes in the region as far as I could tell. If there is, then they will be on the fronts shown those are most likely to be at around the 1016 line there are some circles of that nature showing but I wouldn't know how recent any such epicentre stuff is likely to be.

This turned out to involve the Southern Mid Atlantic Ridge. What it looks like on the MetO charts is von Karman vortices, I have no idea to what effects. It never occurred to me before but seeing it so plainly this morning, I am left wondering what else has never occurred to me. The Aramaic Bible in Plain English:
But the way of the righteous ones is like the shining light, and the light progresses until the day is established. Proverbs 4:8.

The The That's right folks, (shuh shuh shoot yourselves now!)

[Weatherlawyer]

On Sunday, 24 May 2015 10:26:48 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
> >
> > I mentioned the North Pacific charts from Hawaii last time I collected data from them. There was a likelihood of earthquakes in the region as far as I could tell. If there is, then they will be on the fronts shown those are most likely to be at around the 1016 line there are some circles of that nature showing but I wouldn't know how recent any such epicentre stuff is likely to be.
>
> This turned out to involve the Southern Mid Atlantic Ridge. What it looks like on the MetO charts is von Karman vortices, I have no idea to what effects. It never occurred to me before but seeing it so plainly this morning, I am left wondering what else has never occurred to me. The Aramaic Bible in Plain English:
> But the way of the righteous ones is like the shining light, and the light progresses until the day is established. Proverbs 4:8.
>
> The The That's right folks, (shuh shuh shoot yourselves now!)

Seriously what is wrong with Californians that they can't see shit coming?how long have they had to string up rogue company directors by their testicles every time that they let oil lea without any attempt to fire off electronic alarms

I loved the quote from the managing director that caused all the trouble last time:

The director of parks gardens and nose-picking said they didn't have to be careful and described it as not a disaster because nobody died and then said "all this fuss over a few fish"

But not to worry the energy company that looked after the Japanese nuclear fuel industry so carefully, has got hold of a computer operating system that has a proven track record. Several thousand of their play stations are running on Windows XP.

Something tells me that it is going to be several more decades before someone offers me a job forecasting earthquakes. But not to worry I am already semi-retired. Who needs money?

In Britain we usually arrange for drunken oil tanker drivers to go ashore over the Xmess holidays because that is when the oceans here go into drunken Scottish moron-alert. I gather they do things differently in the land that god forgot. Or is it just that you prefer to have your storms in summer?

You do realise that I am getting old don't you :~D

[Weatherlawyer]

25 May 2015. A foreboding cyclone starts off today's run on the Australian charts, it is part of a triple complex so will go on to signal volcanism, at present the cyclone is active at 90 degrees east, an interesting angle, what?

The winds go on to blow out their own candle as the pressure butterflies-out during the week, such is the behaviour with pressure in Lagrangian points; you can always tell, it's easy enough except, when I am wrong! Besides, I am not wrong we just had a good show on here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html, so there!

There are still no tropical storms yet, though, that should be rectified, shortly or I am a fool. FNMOC should be showing something soon! But I can't see what is holding things up. We must be in for a crack of doom. The Hawaiian stuff is still showing dark-matter if there is such a thing as dark space or is it it just the colour of butterflies?

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/requests/sequences/86.15.227.105-1432548418.22048.tar. If you can't open these files you are using the wrong operating system. Fix it!! Fool!
I have the impression the NA-EFS was playing up earlier you know what that means, don't you?

Right; a scabbie forecast with alternating Lows and Highs indicating volcanic activity in the middle of the Pacific, so nothing knew there, then.
Well I flew through that one, I suppose it means I am going to have a bad day. Oh dear.

[Weatherlawyer]

The EFS looks difficult to interpret today, I think there is a pacific volcano on the cards but you know how those thing do in an active tornado set-up. The only thing to watch out for is hidden signals for large magnitude earthquakes I don't know what effect the coming storm on the 31st is going to have I don't suppose it would stave off a massive typhoon would it?

The Met Office is showing a Lambda front at the end of the run on the t+84 hours chart. I really should post the charts in exculpation.
There is something on Kirk Sorensns thorium talks that describes super-criticality the state you need to push a reactorr through before you can run it on subcritical -safe levels:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAVCaUonrbE&index=7&list=PLKfir74hxWhPsAXSrCy--ORaxxbXdWnXK.

Apparently with technetium a product of LFTRs, the energy levels of the radiation used in medicine are similar to the energy levels of dynamite when diluted with antibodies. Apparently the millions of whateverts they use are more effective if used in combination with naturally produced toxins.

Dynamite is a favourite feature of journalism when the morons are discussing nuclear bombs or earthquakes, the reasonthey nlike to introduce dynamite is that dynamite is more of an emotive story than diesel, which is another energy equivalent. Anyway it got me thinking that there is a physical/chemical relationship to all of this stuff.

Mr Sorenson states that these reactors stabilise themselves if you design them properly, which makes criminals out of most of the nuclear fuel engineers just as surely as if they were meteorologists refusing to accept that weather charts give warning of earthquakes.

But the point that stuck me is that the earth is a naturally balancing system not only dealing correctly with nuclear waste but running an easily gauged model for anyone to find out all about if they have the interest.
If it just supplies glowballers with something sensible to talk about for five minutes it will do for me, especially if the process involves thinking and it is catching.

[Weatherlawyer]

https://wordpress.com/post/84101895/1401
IMNVHO better late than never.
The vigorousness of the signal that has yet to apear on tropical storm wrning websites should begin to make itself visible mathemagically on earthquake lists. Not that I have any explanation for this apart from the fact a change in the weather is generally signified seismically:

2015/05/26
23:51. 58.68 S. 25.14 W. 5.4Mb. SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REgion
23:41. 58.72 S. 25.23 W. 5.2Mb. SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE
23:27. 58.67 S. 25.45 W. 5.3Mb. SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS RE

And that things look set to clatter along merrily before we see past Friday.The point I am trying to make is that there is usually a significant absence of earthquakes at 5.5 or more for about 24 to 30 hours when a significant tropical storm is due. The fact is that there is no real reason to suppose that it will be that large a storm. Merely being the first on in the series does not confer magesty.

The volcanic activity looks like dying down if it is signalled by the cyclone at 70 degrees east on the Australian charts. The actual growth of the storm appears on the chart at Midnight on Saturday south of Africa. So we can look for a large medium magnitude earthquake on that date if I hit my guess exactly. There is no reason why I shouldn't, dawn and the quarters feature significantly enough on the incidents lists.

Whatever that case, the isobars certainly begin to transform to the isobars that are the trademark of tropical storms. Some ide of their potential can be gained from how circular they become and for how long they last. Further developments can be seen best form the Met Office charts -which is why I hold them most accountable for the Nepalese disaster. (Well I am not going to blame myself, am I?)

Elongation is striking on Monday when things go off the chart what I will say but aught not to is that no place seems to be allowed for significant volcanism. Astronomical signs may be seen if the large planets are at southern declinations. I don't believe the moon is. Maybe I should look?

It seems to be a feature of the Mauna Kea runs that they lose the last 11 charts
That is so for the 384 selection:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/cgi-bin/process-sequence.cgi

Te volcanic activity continues through the month to June when significant rotation takes place as if volcanoes don't rotate.Tornadoes should return by then or should they? I am weak on that branch of things, disliking that model run a lot.

Wolf Volcano - John Seach
john

Galapagos Islands, Ecuador

0.02 N, 91.35 W
summit elevation 1710 m
shield volcano

Wolf is the highest volcano in the Galápagos Islands. The volcano is situated on the equator. Wolf is one of six shield volcanoes on Isabela Island. Western Galapagos volcanoes are formed by a deeply rooted mantle plume.

Wolf volcano has experienced periodic filling and collapse of the caldera. The volcano is different from other western Galapagos shield volcanoes due to depleted Pb, Sr, and Nd signatures.

Wolf volcano is bordered by younger volcanoes north (Roca Redonda), west (Ecuador), and south (Darwin). Before Wolf volcano emerged there was a one million year pause in volcanic activity in the area. Volcanic fissures at Wolf volcano are different to Hawaii and Iceland and contain diffuse rift zones.

2015 Eruption:

An eruption of Wolf volcano, Galapagos Islands began on 24th May 2015.

The eruption >>>began with a magnitude 4.7 earthquake<<<< and explosive activity. Wolf Volcano is located in the northern part of Isabela Island, and is the tallest volcano in the Galapagos (1710 m).

The previous eruption at Wolf volcano occurred in 1982. At 04:34 on 24th May an eruption column reached an altitude of 50,000 ft and drifted east-northeast. Satellite images showed an intense hotspot on the southeast flank of the volcano, confirming eruptive activity. National park staff observed a fissure on the upper south-southeast flank of the volcano with several lava flows moving towards the sea.

The eruption will have effects on the flora and fauna as well as the marine environment when the lava reaches the sea. The previous eruption of Wolf volcano occurred in 1982.
Wolf Volcano Eruptions

2015, 1982, 1973?, 1963, 1948, 1938, 1935, 1933, 1925-26, 1800, 1797
http://volcanolive.com/wolf.html
That's all for now; don't miss this coming opportunity.

[Weatherlawyer]

28 May 2015.
There is still plenty of volcanic activity on the NA-EFS if I have got it correct. Earlier I was of the opinion unchecked that it was dying down.
The North Atlantic charts are interesting as they are now offering a signal, as I said they would, that a tropical storm in forming.

Furthermore the signal is strong enough on the day, yet to arrive, when I said that it would be strong enough to arrive. I feel good about that. And provided nobody dies in the process, the best is yet to come.

What is left to deal with?

We still have not had a large enough magnitude earthquake on the likely path. Let us see if we can forecast where and when. From the Mauna Lea forecast:


The last dozen or so charts are blank on the 384 hour run of the surface model analysis but at t+78 the indications are that it will reach peak energy levels. Furthermore it looks like there will be swarm of epicentres over the period t+90 and t+108.

Behold a brave new world if god has forgiven me.
There is no reason you too can not enjoy as much fun, all you have to do is ask him to let you join in.

If he can forgive me I am damned sure he can forgive a plonker like you. He deals with ignorant arseholes all the time, that's his job description, isn't it?

[avag...@gmail.com]

NHC changed there mind following Texas ?

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/05/28/us/ap-us-obama.html?em_pos=large&emc=edit_nn_20150528&nl=nytnow&nlid=71480105&_r=0

[Weatherlawyer]

On Friday, 29 May 2015 17:37:19 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
> The Mauna Kea observatory has a model run that the local university runs for them. I'd bet it is the same type of model the Met Office uses as it is excellent. Does anyone know?

The MetOffice charts are now clearly showing a fully fledged East Pacific storm. In keeping with the fact that it is merely hurricane force, there is no anticyclonic content. No anticyclone but several days of F1 before getting an upgrade today. By noon Tuesday it is sitting over the UK and not running out just then too neither by the look of it.

If Blanca isn't a Pineapple express it will be the next in line on the customary track up from Central America: t+108 on today's Mauna Kea forecast, damned good model that!

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/requests/sequences/86.15.227.105-1432999516.7390.tar I don't know what a break in the Californian drought looks like but the recent run of three offshore storms may well be it and hopefully the fourth will do the honours.

[avag...@gmail.com]

I dunno if we can take volcanic for M. Mouse

http://goo.gl/7zw0HM