Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 2010
rogeONoppo
Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] remains at the
lowest level in at least three decades, and it's expected to decrease even
further.
In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere saw the lowest number of tropical cyclones
since 1977, the Western North Pacific had the fewest in at least sixty-five
years, and the Eastern North Pacific experienced the lowest number of
hurricanes in forty years.
Info @: http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/index.html
--
No Increasing Trend In Hurricane Activity
May 29, 2008
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2008/05/29/tropical-cyclones-down-under/
QUESTION: What will happen if you carefully study storms across the globe
and find out warming does not increase their frequency?
ANSWER: The media will ignore you
We have written so much about the link between climate change and hurricanes
(a.k.a., tropical cyclones, TCs) that we sometimes wonder if there could be
anything new to report.
No sooner than we have such a thought, yet another article on the subject
appears in some leading scientific journal. A sentence in the abstract from
this new article really caught our eye as we read "For the 1981/82 to
2005/06 TC seasons, there are no apparent trends in the total numbers and
cyclone days of TCs, nor in numbers and cyclone days of severe TCs with
minimum central pressure of 970 hPa or lower."
This latest research gem appears in a recent issue of Geophysical Research
Letters, and the work was conducted by a team of climatologists employed in
Melbourne at the National Climate Centre of the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology. Kuleshov et al. note that "Concern about the enhanced
greenhouse effect affecting TC frequency and intensity has grown over recent
decades. Recently, trends in global TC activity for the period 1970 to 2004
have been examined by Webster et al. [2005]. They concluded that no global
trend has yet emerged in the total number of tropical storms and
hurricanes."
We at World Climate Report could not agree more, and the scientific evidence
is overwhelming on the subject of global warming and hurricane frequency!
Imagine the reaction we would get if we claimed "the science is settled" and
the "debate is over" - hurricanes are not becoming more frequent!
Yet, you can visit thousands of websites claiming that hurricanes are
becoming more frequent thanks to the ongoing buildup of greenhouse gases.
Climate change alarmists make this claim over and over, the claim is almost
never challenged, and the claim is simply not consistent with reality.
Give the global warmers credit - from school kids to grandmas, they have the
world believing that hurricanes are definitely increasing in frequency, when
nothing could be further from the truth.
The Australian-based Kuleshov et al. team wanted to focus on the Southern
Hemisphere and they searched for data for an area from Africa to an oceanic
area well off the coast of South America. The cold Peru ocean current off
the west coast of South America inhibits (actually eliminates) hurricane
activity in ocean area near South America. Kuleshov et al. state "The data
for the Australian region (90°E to 160°E) has been provided by the
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, for the area from 30°E to 90°E by
Météo-France (La Réunion) and for the area east of 160°E by the
Meteorological Services of Fiji and New Zealand." They write "Further, TC
trends in the SH as the whole domain as well as in two sub-regions, the
South Indian Ocean (SIO) (west of 135°E) and the South Pacific Ocean (SPO)
(east of 135°E), are derived." The figure below (Figure 1)shows their study
area along with a basic climatology of tropical cyclones in the Southern
Hemisphere.
Figure 1. Average annual number of TCs in the Southern Hemisphere in El Niño
years in 2° x 2° boxes.
Kuleshov et al. find "There are significant inter-annual variations in TC
annual totals ranging from 16 to 34 TCs per year. Downward trends
(statistically not significant) in the total annual number of TCs in the SH
and in both sub-regions (SIO and SPO), have been identified."
We hate to bring this up to the global warming crusaders, but we did notice
that the authors are writing about downward trends in the number of tropical
cyclones of the Southern Hemisphere.
They go on stating "There are no apparent trends in total annual occurrences
of TCs in the SH for the 1981/82 to 2005/06 TC seasons, nor in severe TCs
with minimum central pressure of 970 hPa or lower (i.e., the calculated
trends are not statistically significant)." If you haven't heard, they fire
away in their summary again stating "For the 1981/82 to 2005/06 TC seasons,
there are no apparent trends in the total numbers and cyclone days of TCs,
nor in numbers and cyclone days of severe TCs with minimum central pressure
of 970 hPa or lower."
To be complete, the authors do report that they detected an upward trend in
the number of strong storms with a central pressure less than 945hPa.
Had these scientists found an increase in the total number of tropical
cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, they would need to hire press agents to
handle the global coverage.
Their work would be front page news all over the world, Time and Newsweek
would be all over the story, and thousands of web pages would trumpet the
results. However, they found no trends, or even downward trends, in total
tropical cyclone frequency over a huge area of the planet - coverage at
World Climate Report is about all they can expect.
References:
Kuleshov, Y., L. Qi, R. Fawcett, and D. Jones (2008), On tropical cyclone
activity in the Southern Hemisphere: Trends and the ENSO connection,
Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L14S08, doi:10.1029/2007GL032983.
Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H.-R. Chang (2005), Changes
in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming
environment, Science, 309, 1844-1846.
Warmest Regards
B0nz0
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author
"It does not matter who you are, or how smart you are, or what title you
have, or how many of you there are, and certainly not how many papers your
side has published, if your prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is
wrong. Period."
Professor Richard Feynman, Nobel Laureate in Physics
"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
"The fact that an opinion has been widely held is no evidence whatever that
it is not utterly absurd; indeed in view of the silliness of the majority of
mankind, a widespread belief is more likely to be foolish than sensible."
Bertrand Russell
Surfer
>
>
>Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] remains at the
>lowest level in at least three decades, and it's expected to decrease even
>further.
>
Perhaps the energy was dissipated in other ways before it could
accumulate. Eg
Russia Fires, Pakistan Floods Linked?
Extreme weather driven partly by global warming, experts say.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/08/100812-russian-wildfires-pakistan-floods-global-warming-science-environment
<Start extract>
This year's fierce monsoon rains have spawned Pakistan's worst
flooding in 80 years, affecting nearly 14 million people, according to
the New York Times.
And in Russia, widespread fires are stoked by the worst heat wave in
Russian memory. Around Moscow, choked with fire-related smog,
temperatures have hovered around 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees
Celsius) for weeks and show no sign of letting up soon, according to
the Bloomberg news agency.
<snip>
Both Russia and Pakistan are also experiencing "remarkable"
temperatures in 2010, which is shaping up to be one of the hottest
years since record-keeping began in the late 1880s, Jeff Masters,
director of meteorology for the Weather Underground website, told
National Geographic News in July.
Nine countries have shattered heat records, including Pakistan, which
on May 26 logged a mercury reading of 128.3 degrees Fahrenheit (53.5
degrees Celsius)—the highest ever seen in Asia, Masters said.
<End extract>
k...@kymhorsell.com
> On Mon, 3 Jan 2011 18:01:57 +1100, "nymnuts" <nym...@nymnuts.com> wrote:
>>Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] remains at the
>>lowest level in at least three decades, and it's expected to decrease even
>>further.
> Perhaps the energy was dissipated in other ways before it could
> accumulate. Eg
Remember, this is the guy that's trying to get you to forget all the
record UK heatwaves over the past few years and concentrate on
the most recent snowfall.
When someone whose job is misdirection indicates they are emphasising only
some of the datapoints, suspect they are trying to direct you
away from an overall trend, unless you know otherwise.
--
[...] the estimation of life expectancy will continue to be both art and science.
-- James S Krause,
"Accuracy of Life Expectancy Estimates in Life Care Plans", Feb 2004
k...@kymhorsell.com
> In sci.skeptic Surfer <n...@spam.net> wrote:
>> On Mon, 3 Jan 2011 18:01:57 +1100, "nymnuts" <nym...@nymnuts.com> wrote:
>>>Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] remains at the
>>>lowest level in at least three decades, and it's expected to decrease even
>>>further.
>> Perhaps the energy was dissipated in other ways before it could
>> accumulate. Eg
> ...
> Remember, this is the guy that's trying to get you to forget all the
> record UK heatwaves over the past few years and concentrate on
> the most recent snowfall.
I've put a set of graphs at http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/hurr.html
to show trends in N-hemi hurricane activity (i.e. maybe pertinent to
Indian monsoon that anyway shows trends as per http://.../indianmon.html).
Just in terms of numbers of hurricanes we see there is a trend
outside of the N "summer" season Jun-Sep. Between 1950 and 1990
there were at most 2 hurricanes outside the summer season.
But since 1990 -- when other datasets world-wide tend to show
"gear shifting" -- we see the numbers are trending up
with 2 years showing 3, and 2 years showing 5 hurricanes in "quiet months".
We also note the maximum number of hurricanes in any month
also shows a trend increase.
I'll see if there are other datasets involving wind strengths.
When I last reviewed that kind of data in the mid 90s there
was no significant trend (but only after the data was adjusted for some
WWII-era "measurement problem" suggested by one of the relevant
USAF pilots). I have a feeling there is now going to be something to see.
--
They said it was only luck. But the more I practised, the luckier I got.
-- Gary Player [and others]
rogeONoppo
"Surfer" <n...@spam.net> wrote in message
news:asm3i6hp4upbh9oe2...@4ax.com...
> On Mon, 3 Jan 2011 18:01:57 +1100, "rogeONoppo" <jk...@lkj.com> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] remains at the
>>lowest level in at least three decades, and it's expected to decrease even
>>further.
>>
>
> Perhaps the energy was dissipated in other ways before it could
> accumulate. Eg
>
>
> Russia Fires, Pakistan Floods Linked?
Yes ...
New Scientist, Low Solar Activity Caused Russian Heatwave & Pakistan Floods
Frozen jet stream links Pakistan floods, Russian fires
10 August 2010
QUOTE: Now he says he has evidence from 350 years of historical records to
show that low solar activity is also associated with summer blocking events
(Environmental Research Letters, in press). "There's enough evidence to
suspect that the jet stream behaviour is being modulated by the sun," he
says.
QUOTE: blocking events have been unusually common over the last three years,
for instance, causing severe floods in the UK and heatwaves in eastern
Europe in 2007. Solar activity has been low throughout.
Raging wildfires in western Russia have reportedly doubled average daily
death rates in Moscow.
Diluvial rains over northern Pakistan are surging south - the UN reports
that 6 million have been affected by the resulting floods.
It now seems that these two apparently disconnected events have a common
cause.
They are linked to the heatwave that killed more than 60 in Japan, and the
end of the warm spell in western Europe. The unusual weather in the US and
Canada last month also has a similar cause.
According to meteorologists monitoring the atmosphere above the northern
hemisphere, unusual holding patterns in the jet stream are to blame. As a
result, weather systems sat still. Temperatures rocketed and rainfall
reached extremes.
Renowned for its influence on European and Asian weather, the jet stream
flows between 7 and 12 kilometres above ground. In its basic form it is a
current of fast-moving air that bobs north and south as it rushes around the
globe from west to east. Its wave-like shape is caused by Rossby waves -
powerful spinning wind currents that push the jet stream alternately north
and south like a giant game of pinball.
In recent weeks, meteorologists have noticed a change in the jet stream's
normal pattern. Its waves normally shift east, dragging weather systems
along with it. But in mid-July they ground to a halt, says Mike Blackburn of
the University of Reading, UK (see diagram). There was a similar pattern
over the US in late June.
Stationary patterns in the jet stream are called "blocking events". They are
the consequence of strong Rossby waves, which push westward against the flow
of the jet stream. They are normally overpowered by the jet stream's
eastward flow, but they can match it if they get strong enough. When this
happens, the jet stream's meanders hold steady, says Blackburn, creating the
perfect conditions for extreme weather.
A static jet stream freezes in place the weather systems that sit inside the
peaks and troughs of its meanders. Warm air to the south of the jet stream
gets sucked north into the "peaks". The "troughs" on the other hand, draw in
cold, low-pressure air from the north. Normally, these systems are
constantly on the move - but not during a blocking event.
And so it was that Pakistan fell victim to torrents of rain. The blocking
event coincided with the summer monsoon, bringing down additional rain on
the mountains to the north of the country. It was the final straw for the
Indus's congested river bed (see "Thirst for Indus water upped flood risk").
Similarly, as the static jet stream snaked north over Russia, it pulled in a
constant stream of hot air from Africa. The resulting heatwave is
responsible for extensive drought and nearly 800 wildfires at the latest
count. The same effect is probably responsible for the heatwave in Japan,
which killed over 60 people in late July. At the same time, the blocking
event put an end to unusually warm weather in western Europe.
Blocking events are not the preserve of Europe and Asia.
Back in June, a similar pattern developed over the US, allowing a
high-pressure system to sit over the eastern seaboard and push up the
mercury.
Meanwhile, the Midwest was bombarded by air from the north, with chilly
effects. Instead of moving on in a matter of days, "the pattern persisted
for more than a week", says Deke Arndt of the US National Climatic Data
Center in North Carolina.
So what is the root cause of all of this?
Meteorologists are unsure.
Climate change models predict that rising greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere will drive up the number of extreme heat events. Whether this
is because greenhouse gas concentrations are linked to blocking events or
because of some other mechanism entirely is impossible to say.
Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder,
Colorado - who has done much of this modelling himself - points out that the
resolution in climate models is too low to reproduce atmospheric patterns
like blocking events. So they cannot say anything about whether or not their
frequency will change.
There is some tentative evidence that the sun may be involved.
Earlier this year astrophysicist Mike Lockwood of the University of Reading,
UK, showed that winter blocking events were more likely to happen over
Europe when solar activity is low - triggering freezing winters
(New Scientist, 17 April, p 6).
Now he says he has evidence from 350 years of historical records to show
that low solar activity is also associated with summer blocking events
(Environmental Research Letters, in press). "There's enough evidence to
suspect that the jet stream behaviour is being modulated by the sun," he
says.
Blackburn says that blocking events have been unusually common over the last
three years, for instance, causing severe floods in the UK and heatwaves in
eastern Europe in 2007. Solar activity has been low throughout.
rogeONoppo
<k...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
news:4d2202d5$0$13393$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> In sci.skeptic k...@kymhorsell.com wrote:
>> In sci.skeptic Surfer <n...@spam.net> wrote:
>>> On Mon, 3 Jan 2011 18:01:57 +1100, "nymnuts" <nym...@nymnuts.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>>Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE] remains at the
>>>>lowest level in at least three decades, and it's expected to decrease
>>>>even
>>>>further.
>>> Perhaps the energy was dissipated in other ways before it could
>>> accumulate. Eg
>> ...
>> Remember, this is the guy that's trying to get you to forget all the
>> record UK heatwaves over the past few years and concentrate on
>> the most recent snowfall.
> ...
>
> I've put a set of graphs at http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/hurr.html
> to show trends in N-hemi hurricane activity (i.e. maybe pertinent to
> Indian monsoon that anyway shows trends as per http://.../indianmon.html).
>
ROTFLMAO
"The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems
to be telling us." Kerry Emanuel, Hurricane Researcher, MIT, 1 Dec 2009
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=513997
ro...@kymhorsell.com
27 Jan, 2011 3:05AM AWST
ABC
Severe tropical cyclone Bianca continues moving W taking it slowly away
from the Pilbara coast.
Bianca could have gone either way.
A SW track would have brought damaging winds and dangerous storm tides
along the Pilbara coast.
But Bianca has been kind to the North West following a W course
overnight, slowly moving away from the Pilbara coast.
Although the danger isn't over, the risk of a damaging impact from Bianca is dec
reasing.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reports that winds are intensifying but the
system should continue to move off-shore in the next six to 12 hr.
FESA and the BoM a warning that it's no time for complacency.
Onslow and Exmouth could still be threatened by Bianca, but they're not
expecting the cyclone to cross the coast.
ABC Local Radio's Glynn Greensmith picks the brain of forecaster, Noel Pewsey
from the Bureau's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre.
---
[Before the flood:]
The recent Murray Darling run-off since the floods would have provided
enought irrigation water to last at least 15 years.
Instead it has all run out to sea!
Crazy anti-dam greenies!
-- "BONZO"@27.32.240.172 [79 nyms and counting], 12 Nov 2010 14:05 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
BEARING DOWN: Tropical Cyclone Bianca heads towards Perth after battering
North West WA.
[Pacific storm trends at http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/cyclone.html].
Narelle Towie and AAP
PerthNow
January 29, 2011 1:21AM
A TROPICAL cyclone which has been menacing North-West communities this week is
expected to bring wild weather to Perth and the South-West by Sunday.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone watch for coastal areas from
Jurien Bay to Albany as the category 4 storm continues to track south.
Residents are being warned to prepare for dangerous weather conditions over
the next 48 hr.
"On Saturday, Bianca will move in a southeasterly direction towards the
southwest corner of the state while weakening steadily," the bureau says.
"However, there is a significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical
cyclone intensity as it approaches the coast early on Sunday.
"If this scenario eventuates, coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Albany
could experience damaging winds with gusts to 120km/h.
"On Sunday, tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
signficantly above the normal high tide mark with very rough seas, dangerous
surf and flooding of low lying coastal areas.
"Heavy rainfall is also possible on the southern side of the system. Flash
flooding is possible but extensive flooding is not expected."
As at 5pm TC Bianca is estimated to be 545 km W of Carnarvon and
1110 km W of Perth, moving SW.
It is moving in a SW direction at 30 kph.
Fire and Emergency Services Authority (FESA) chief operations officer Craig
Hynes said emergency services were busy planning for the cyclone, which could
bring added hazards including bushfires, storm surges, and flash flooding.
He urged residents to stay informed about the cyclone's approach and to
prepare emergency plans.
"It's about shoring up your properties, getting rid of loose materials."
Heavy rainfall is also possible on the southern side of the system. Localised
flooding is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
A total fire ban has been put in place for the South West region until Sunday.
Extreme to Catastrophic fire dangers are likely across inland areas south of a
line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
Very high to severe fire dangers are likely near the W coast on Sunday.
This is very unusual weather that could cause significant damage to homes and
make travel very dangerous.
DEC park closures
RECREATION and camping sites in national parks, state forests, regional parks
and other areas managed by the Department of Environment and Conservation
SW of a line between Jurien and Bremer Bay will be closed from 9am
tomorrow.
Penguin Island as well as the sandbar from Mersey Point in Shoalwater Islands
Marine Park also will be closed.
The Bibbulmun Track and Munda Biddi Trail are currently being cleared by DEC
staff and will be closed over the weekend. All other tracks and trails also
will be closed.
DEC rangers will visit areas in the parks today and early tomorrow to warn peopl
e of the dangers of being in natural areas during a cyclone.
For more information visit www.dec.wa.gov.au.
All clear for Pilbara
EXMOUTH and the Pilbara region have been given the all clear this morning as
tropical cyclone Bianca moves away from the WA coast. The cyclone has forced
the suspension of oil and gas production and port facilities in the region,
and more than 50 Exmouth residents were relocated to Exmouth Shire Hall
overnight..
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) volunteers were on standby to help local
communities, but there was no major damage reported to homes or other
infrastructure due to the community being well prepared.
At 6.15am a high-level red alert put in place at 3.30am for communities in or
near Exmouth was revised to an all clear as the cyclone headed out to sea.
All roads closed by the cyclone have been reopened.
Strong and gusty winds are still possible between Cape Preston and Carnarvon,
though these will ease.
Tides will be higher than normal today between Exmouth and Onslow, but
flooding of low lying coastal areas is not expected.
Rio Tinto yesterday said the main body of the cyclone had passed to the W
of Dampier, where the company's Hamersley Iron division operates a port.
The mining giant had suspended all coastal operations by Wednesday afternoon.
Woodside Petroleum said it had suspended production from the Cossack Pioneer
floating oil facility on the North West Shelf and the Enfield oil field off
the Exmouth coast.
An Apache Corporation spokesman on Thursday said production had been suspended
at the Ocean Legend and Stag oil platforms, and the BHP Billiton Ltd-operated
Pyrenees FPSO.
Bianca is the first severe tropical storm of the season and the second cyclone
off the NW coast following Vince earlier this month.
One of the strongest La Nina events ever experienced is expected to generate
up to 5 more cyclones this season.
La Nina episodes happen every three to 7 years and it strengthens trade
winds - which travel from E to W driving warm, moist air over northern
Australia, while cooling the eastern Pacific.
The event pools warm surface water in the W Pacific, fuelling
evaporation and cloud development which, in turns, creates heavy rainfall.
It also increases cyclonic activity.
Scientists don't know what triggers La Nina, which means girl in Spanish.
The La Nina currently affecting Australia's weather system is one of the
strongest on record, while Australia's oceans are the warmest they have ever
been.
HBF Insurance has put special arrangements in place to help members over the
weekend in the event that Tropical Cyclone Bianca causes widespread damage to
homes and property.
General Manager HBF Insurance, Steve Hollow said the insurer was preparing for
worst but hoping for the best.
"They can be rest assured that in the event that storm damage does occur, HBF
has put in place special arrangements to respond as quickly as we can to
people who want to submit claims.
"This includes having a special team of people here in our main Perth office
on standby to talk to members should they require assistance. I am grateful to
our employees who have volunteered to give up their time to make this happen.
"Our IT people have also put in place arrangements to deal with phone overload
issues if they occur and we would urge people to visit the hbf website for
updates - especially if they are having trouble getting through on the
telephone.
"Our aim is to answer everyone first time but, as we learned in last year's
hail storm, there maybe peak periods where there are just so many people
trying to lodge a claim that we can't cope.
"In that instance people will be able to lodge claims online."
Strong and gusty winds are still possible between Cape Preston and Carnarvon,
though these will ease.
Tides will be higher than normal today between Exmouth and Onslow, but
flooding of low lying coastal areas is not expected.
Rio Tinto yesterday said the main body of the cyclone had passed to the W
of Dampier, where the company's Hamersley Iron division operates a port.
The mining giant had suspended all coastal operations by Wednesday afternoon.
Woodside Petroleum said it had suspended production from the Cossack Pioneer
floating oil facility on the North West Shelf and the Enfield oil field off
the Exmouth coast.
An Apache Corporation spokesman on Thursday said production had been suspended
at the Ocean Legend and Stag oil platforms, and the BHP Billiton Ltd-operated
Pyrenees FPSO.
Bianca is the first severe tropical storm of the season and the second cyclone
off the NW coast following Vince earlier this month.
One of the strongest La Nina events ever experienced is expected to generate
up to 5 more cyclones this season.
La Nina episodes happen every three to 7 years and it strengthens trade
winds - which travel from east to W driving warm, moist air over northern
Australia, while cooling the eastern Pacific.
The event pools warm surface water in the W Pacific, fuelling
evaporation and cloud development which, in turns, creates heavy rainfall.
It also increases cyclonic activity.
Scientists don't know what triggers La Nina, which means girl in Spanish.
The La Nina currently affecting Australia's weather system is one of the
strongest on record, while Australia's oceans are the warmest they have ever
been.
---
So you really, really believe that our universe just came about by
sheer chance? I prersonally, find that extremely hard to accept.
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [79 nyms and counting], 11 Jan 2011 15:02 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Stuff.co.nz
Last updated 18:11 30/01/2011
(NZPA) - More than 500 people stranded in Coromandel towns can now
leave after smaller slips were cleared from roads in the area.
Tropical cyclone Wilma caused 2 m of rain to fall in 12 hours
in Auckland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Waikato causing widespread
flooding, slips and power outages.
One large slip and a several smaller ones trapped residents and
holiday makers in Coromandel settlements of Tapu and Temata, about
20km northwest of Thames, yesterday morning.
Contractors broke through the smaller slips this afternoon, Thames
Coromandel District Council said.
However, motorists should take extraordinary care as roads were still
extremely narrow in places and people with larger vehicles, such as
campervans, should delay non-urgent travel.
A massive slip, of more than 3000 cubic metres, was still blocking
State Highway 25 at Ruamahanga Bay and was on the move, the council said.
The slip could take up to two days to clear and had forced the
evacuation of a house in its path, Thames-Coromandel Civil Defence
coordinator Ron White said.
Tapu hotel and camping ground owner Ron Efford told NZPA the
campground was at capacity and hundreds of disgruntled campers had
been forced to stay put since yesterday, as had the area's 400 or so
residents.
Slips and flooding across the top of the North Island had caused
traffic delays and other road closures, which had detours in place.
In Northland, farms in the low-lying Hikurangi swamp area remain
submerged after flood waters breached stopbanks along the Mangakahia
River, Northland Regional Council operations director Tony Phipps said.
The water could remain for several wk until the river levels recede
and the area can be pumped, he said.
Several houses were flooded in the Northland town of Moerewa overnight
as cars driving through surface flooding caused it to spill into
properties, a fire service spokesman said.
Plunket St was closed and Civil Defence was pumping water from some
basements, he said.
SH11 is also closed between Opua and Paihia due to flooding.
In the Waikato, river levels were expected to recede today or tomorrow
after the highest flows there since 1998, Environment Waikato
emergency management officer Adam Munro said.
The region's river systems were coping well with the influx of water
but there were still areas of flooding, he said.
"This one didn't pack as much of a punch as previous cyclones but
there have been some pockets that have been quite severely effected."
Only one lane remains open on Kuaotunu Wharekaho Rd, or SH25, due to a slip.
In the Auckland region there were still areas of significant flooding,
said Civil Defence Auckland group controller Clive Manley.
Several roads on Waiheke Island were closed by slips and the wet earth
remained unstable and there was a chance of further slips despite the
rain stopping, he said.
A public health warning remains in place for people not to swim in the
region's rivers and harbours due to a risk of contamination.
Tauranga residents no longer needed to conserve water as water
processing plants were back on line and the water supply system was
getting back to normal operation, a Tauranga City Council press
release said. Ad Feedback
All tracks on and around Mt Maunganui remain closed due to slips.
People are still advised to stay out of the water in the inner
Tauranga Harbour, including Pilot Bay, for the duration of the long weekend.
SH2 at Waimana Gorge is closed due to flooding.
In the Bay of Plenty, river levels peaked overnight but there had been
no further reports of flooding, Bay of Plenty Regional Council
spokeswoman Bronwyn Campbell said.
---
It takes more than warmth to grow crops; otherwise the Sahara would be green!
--
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [82 nyms and counting], 21 Jan 2011 11:16 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Financial Express [Bangladesh]
Jan 31 2011
The govt has planned to build more cyclone-resilient centres and houses
in the coastal areas to minimise loss of lives and property caused by natural
disasters, officials said.
"The govt has started building more cyclone shelters in the coastal
areas to save people from disastrous effects of natural calamities," said Food
and Disaster Management Minister Dr Abdur Razzaque while inaugurating cyclone
centres at Parerhat under Zianagar in Pirojpur district Sun, ministry
sources said.
Expatriates of Pirojpur living in Spain have donated Tk 9.0 mn (90 lakh)
for building a cyclone centre with a capacity of accommodating one thousand
people. It could be used as a community centre and primary school during
normal time. Supply of water is also ensured in the centre.
Dr Razzaque said, at the first phase, about 100 multi-purpose cyclone centres
will be built in the coastal areas with a cost of Tk 1.9 bn. The
implementation of the project is to start soon.
"About 6,186 cyclone-resilient houses will also be built with a fund of Tk
732.4 million. The govt of Japan has donated Tk 1.13 bn for
ensuring safe drinking water for the people of the coastal region," he
mentioned.
---
So you really, really believe that our universe just came about by
sheer chance? I prersonally, find that extremely hard to accept.
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [82 nyms and counting], 11 Jan 2011 15:02 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Largest cyclone to hit Qld zeros in on N coast.
[For Pacific cyclone trends see <http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/cyclone.html>]
.
Kirsty Sexton-McGrath, Maria Hatzakis, Penny Timms, Melissa Maddison, Sigrid Bro
wn, Brad Ryan and Imogen Brennan
Feb 1 2011
ABC News
Entire suburbs in 3 north Queensland cities will be evacuated today as
Cyclone Yasi powers towards the coast, bringing destructive winds, torrential
rain, and massive storm surges.
Yasi is expected to be packing winds of up to 280 kph when it makes landfall
as a category 4 system somewhere between Cairns and Innisfail at around
midnight (AEST) on Wed.
A cyclone watch is in place for communities for Cape Melville to Cooktown, and
adjacent inland areas east of Richmond.
As residents batten down, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has warned that the
storm has the potential to be the biggest the state has ever seen.
She is also warning residents in low-lying waterfront areas from Innisfail to
Mackay that today will be their last chance to get out ahead of the storm's
impact.
"We are very concerned about storm surges causing serious powerful flash
flooding," she said.
"Every council has identified those houses most at risk and if you are in one
of those areas, you should be relocating yourself and your family today.
"That means whole suburbs in some parts of the region will be looking for
alternative accommodation with friends and family today.
"Today is the last opportunity that people will have to make all the
preparations they need to keep themselves and their families safe.
"That means that if you are in a low-lying waterfront area, you should be
thinking of relocating your family to a friend in a higher place today."
The far north Queensland town of Innisfail was devastated during Cyclone Larry
in 2006 and there are predictions Yasi could be just as intense.
Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) says houses in low-lying areas of
Cairns will be evacuated today as the threat of a huge storm surge looms.
EMQ area director Wayne Hepple says communities at Innisfail are at risk of
flooding as well as the Cairns suburbs of Manoora, Manunda and Mooroobool.
"The storm surge will be an event that occurs on the southern side of the
cyclone, so from the eye to the south," he said.
"It's just the nature of the winds and how it pushes it up onto the coast.
"If you are on that southern side, that's why this thing is going to be quite
dangerous."
Cyclone to intensify
Forecaster Ben Suter says it is still a category 3 cyclone, but will
intensify as a high category 4 system when it makes landfall, with winds
reaching up to 280 kph.
"We have strong gale force winds extending just north of Cooktown and all the
way down to Bowen," he said.
"It looks like making landfall on the current forecast somewhere between Cairns
and Innisfail and it does still look to be a high category 4 when it does so.
"The current crossing looks earlier as well, maybe around midnight [AEST]
Wednesday, going into Thursday."
Mr Suter says the cyclone will cause a storm surge.
"The worst of any storm surge will probably be Innisfail southwards,
particularly around Townsville, even though the charts are further north," he sa
id.
"I think even Townsville could see a fairly storm surge.
"If this forecast track does actually go a bit further north, than obviously
that storm surge risk will transfer northwards."
Maritime Safety Queensland (MSQ) has issued a yellow alert for all boats from
Cape Flattery in Cape York to Mourilyan, south of Innisfail, out of the water.
All ports from Cairns to Mackay will be closed from late today.
Superintendent Brian Connors from the Cairns Disaster Coordination Centre says
police, State Emergency Service (SES) and council representatives, met
yesterday afternoon and will meet again today.
Superintendent Connors is urging residents to be prepared.
"Having a torch, radio, basic first aid supplies, a supply of food - all the
routine things that perhaps we take for granted in the time to a lead-up to an
event," he said.
"We want people to get into the habit of having these things ready early."
Cyclone plan
Townsville Mayor Les Tyrell says authorities will evacuate retirement and
nursing homes along the seaside suburb of Pallarenda today.
He says the size of Yasi means even if it does cross north of Townsville, the
city may still be affected by destructive winds and floods.
"We need to make sure we cater for the worst," he said.
"[If it] doesn't happen, then we've dodged a bullet.
Emergency authorities in Mackay say residents need to have a plan in place
well before the strong winds start affecting the region.
Inspector Peter Flanders says people must make sure they have a plan for their
families.
"If you're staying in your house, make sure that every person in your family
knows what the plan is, they know where to go in the house should a cyclone
hit," he said.
"If you are thinking about moving your family do it early - the whole key is
preparation.
"If the cyclone does hit with significant impact, all of those things need to
be in place - it's too late once the wind starts blowing."
Mackay Mayor Col Meng says a tidal surge is a concern.
Mr Meng says residents should not underestimate the seriousness of the weather
conditions.
"Wednesday is a 5.7 metre tide, so we have a reasonably high tide and if we
have the river in flood as well and a 5 metre tide and get a surge on top of
that, that's when our trouble will be," he said.
"The serious thing is everything's saturated - we already do have those flood
conditions.
"Our worry is if we do get that tidal surge it will push back in, they're
saying it could be up to 4 metres."
Whitsunday Regional Mayor Mike Brunker says tourists in the area should
postpone their holiday and move south of Rockhampton.
"People in the Whitsundays and Mackay and wherever else - if you're a tourist
I don't think there's going to be much of a tourist experience over the next
couple of days," he said.
"We must be looking at self-evacuation, going to a safe area.
"We need to get people further south - so Rockhampton down.
"If you've got friends in Brisbane, go to Brisbane.
"If you're on holidays and you live in Brisbane or Melbourne or whatever - I'd
be relocating, redoing your plans - there's not going to be a holiday
experience here for you."
Councils ready
Local Government Association of Queensland (LGAQ) president Greg Hallam says
councils are ready to deal with Cyclone Yasi.
"Councils have made sure that they've identified evacuation routes," he said.
"They've looked at low-lying areas that could be inundated, they've moved
council assets, they're cooperating with the police, communicating to the
local community, mobilising all of their equipment to assist in any emergency
situation."
Mr Hallam says there should not be any problems with getting food supplies to
affected areas.
"They're a little different to floods in the sense that this is a relatively
quick event," he said.
"We're talking about half-a-day, a day at most - certainly all the
preparations have been made resupply to communities that could be affected,
not just on the coast but right throughout Queensland as this big system moves
through the state."
The Local Disaster Management Group also met in Cairns yesterday to discuss
preparations.
Cairns Mayor Val Schier, who chairs the local group, says it will keep
monitoring the system as it approaches the coast.
"It will impact on Cairns, even though we're on the fringe of it," she said.
"We still may get winds of up to 100 kilometres an hour by Wednesday
afternoon, so we need to make sure that people are able to respond to that.
"What we're saying to people is that they need to make sure their preparations
are complete."
---
[A]s a Conservative, I have no tolerance for ambiguity.
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [82 nyms and counting], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
[Mommy, how big is a Cat 5 Tropical Cyclone?
It is 3.50 pm Australian E time. Residents in N Qld have been warned
to keep off the roads after 5 pm as the largest Cat 5 storm since 1918
approaches the Qld coast].
By Lincoln Archer and Andi Mastrosavas
news.com.au
Feb 02, 2011
If you're struggling to grasp the magnitude of Tropical Cyclone Yasi, consider
this: it is so large it would almost cover the United States, most of Asia and
large parts of Europe.
Most of the coverage about the scale of Yasi has tried to compare it with
storms of the past - it's bigger than Larry, more powerful than Tracy.
But just as powerful is this comparison, showing this storm is continental in
size. The main bloc of the cyclone is 500km wide, while its associated
activity, shown above in a colour-coding to match intensity, stretches over 2000
km.
The storm's scale of destruction is as shocking as it is inevitable. In the
map above, the United States from Pennsylvania in the east to Nevada in the
west, from Georgia in the south to Canada in the north and well into Mexico
would be battered with 300km/h winds and up to one metre of rain.
The economic impact would be felt around the world.
Yasi compared to Asia
Again, the scale is unthinkable - taking in an area from Japan, the Koreas and
China all the way through southeast Asia, around through India and the
Himalayas and threatening large parts of central Asia.
This would have billions of people directly in the path of the category 5
storm, creating a human tide of displaced cyclone "refugees".
Yasi compared with Europe
Just as we saw with the Queensland floods, the whole of Britain would be
overwhelmed.
But this time, France and Germany would also be catastrophically affected,
delivering another body blow to the European economy at the least and also
disrupting the lives of hundreds of millions of people.
Even the eye of Yasi is as big as a city. This next map shows the heart of
the storm over New Orleans, covering Louisiana and neighbouring states.
The eye itself, at 35km across, would stretch over all of the Katrina-ravaged
city's centre. In the maps below, you can see Shanghai and New Zealand's
north island bearing the brunt of category five.
[27 more news items]
---
[A]ll science is lies and the only thing we can trust is right wing rhetoric.
axmatt
<ro...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
news:4d48dd03$0$3032$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> How Cyclone Yasi compares around the world
>
> [Mommy, how big is a Cat 5 Tropical Cyclone?
>
Queensland has had at least three Cat 5 Tropical Cyclones since 1899.
The worst of all time INCUDING YASI is Mahina in 1899!
Some of the worst cyclones on the Queensland coast:
4 March 1899 CATEGORY 5 Mahina
Tropical Cyclone Mahina, a cyclone, which hit Princess Charlotte
Bay/Bathurst Bay on 4th March 1899.
To date it has been Australia's most severe cyclone and was a Category 5
also, killing over 400 people.
Jonathan Nott of James Cook University and Matthew Hayne of the Australia
Geological Survey Organisation describes it:
Tropical Cyclone Mahina was the most intense tropical cyclone to cross the
Australian coast in historical times. Its central pressure was recorded by
barometer at 27 inches (914hPa) as the eye approached the coast at Bathurst
Bay (Figure 1) at approximately 4.30 am on the 22nd March 1899 (Whittingham
1958).
Cyclone Yasi's central pressure is going to run Mahina's 914hPa close:
Central Pressure: 924 hPa
One of the most interesting aspects of this event was the eyewitness report
of a 43 foot (13m) surge at Ninian Bay adjacent to Barrow Point 30 km south
of Bathurst Bay which extended inland for 2-3 miles (3-5 km).
Constable Kenny, camped on a ridge fully 40 foot above sea level, was
inundated to his waist by a 'tidal wave' (storm surge and associated
ephemeral sea level rise) at his camp site
some 0.5 miles (800m) inland at approximately 5 am (Anonymous 1899).
This account suggests this surge was the largest ever recorded in Australia.
======================================
21 January, 1918. CATEGORY 5 "Mackay"
Mackay to Rockhampton, cyclone crossed at Mackay
Mackay hit by cyclone with almost every building damaged. A storm surge of
7.6 metres saw almost 3 metre waves breaking in the town centre. Huge flood
at Rockhampton. 30 lives lost.
.At least 30 deaths
.1141 mm rain in three days
.Storm surge sea level rise 2.36 meters above max high tide mark flood
entire city for one hour
.2 m waves in main street Mackay
.Main rail and road bridges destroyed
.Gas and water infrastructure destroyed
.1000 homes in Mackay destroyed -all damaged
.1400 homes damaged in Rockhampton10
10 March, 1918. CATEGORY 5, "Unnamed"
Cairns to Innisfail and Atherton Tableland Crossed at Innisfail
Of 3500 residents in Innisfail only 12 houses remained. Mission Beach to the
Atherton Tableland suffered destruction. Almost 100 dead.
This tropical cyclone is widely regarded as the worst cyclone to hit a
populated area of Queensland. It crossed the coast and passed directly over
Innisfail. The pen on the Post Office barograph was prevented from
registering below 948 hPa by the flange on the bottom of the drum. In
Innisfail, then a town of 3,500 residents, only around 12 houses remained
intact. Recent reports suggest that 37 people died at Innisfail while 40 -
60 lost their lives in nearby areas.
.At least 100 deaths
.Only 12 houses in Innisfail (3500 pop) escaped major damage
.Widespread damage in Cairns Babinda, Tableland
.Storm Surge -Mission Beach 3.6 m all bldgs destroyed -Coast 3 m all Bldgs
Babinda destroyed1-
ro...@kymhorsell.com
[Reports are just comin in of Yasi crossing over Australian islands 400 km off
the Qld coast. In Cairns, where 1/3 of the population has moved to high ground
and the hospital was evac'd yesterday by 11 military and civil aircraft, the
winds are reported to be picking up to storm strength].
With winds of up to 300 km (186 miles) per hour, Yasi is so powerful it could
blow apart even "cyclone proof" houses, engineers said on Wed. Yasi is headed
for major towns and cities...
1 Feb 2011
By Michael Smith
Sydney (Reuters) - Australia's Cyclone Yasi, with winds of up to 300 km (186
miles) per hour, is so powerful it could blow apart even "cyclone proof"
houses, engineers said on Wednesday.
Yasi is headed for major towns and cities along the northeast coast. It is
believed to be the strongest ever to hit Australia, surpassing Cyclone Tracy
which largely destroyed the northern city of Darwin in 1974.
"Once you get to extreme cases, you are in uncharted ground and the test data
I have got I would not trust it if I had to live there myself," said Dr Robert
Leicester, a researcher with the government's national scientific research
body.
Leicester, of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation, has studied the impact of Australia's two previous worst
cyclones, Tracy and Cyclone Larry in 2006.
"Of the cyclones up to now since Tracy, you have not really had a direct hit
on places with a lot of housing," he said.
Building standards have been tightened significantly since Tracy killed 71
people and destroyed about 70 percent of the northern city of Darwin.
But they may be no match for cyclones the size of Yasi. Standards are already
being reviewed because of worries that cyclones are getting stronger and
moving further south.
Engineers said that while most modern homes were designed to withstand high
wind-speeds, pressures were different during a severe cyclone which could suck
walls out and blow roofs off buildings.
Structures in the region built before 2002 were designed to withstand winds of
252 kph and those built since then for winds of 265 kph, according to
Professor Mark Bradford, of the University of New South Wales' School of Civil
and Environmental Engineering.
Smaller building are particularly vulnerable. "It doesn't look particularly
good, it is quite scary."
But Bradford said larger steel-reinforced structures such as high-rise
buildings and bridges were expected to withstand the cyclone. Ports and
refineries were also expected to be undamaged.
[27 more news items]
---
axmatt
<ro...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
news:4d48e0bc$0$13390$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> Australia's Cyclone Yasi may destroy even "cyclone proof" homes
>
Queensland has had at least three Cat 5 Tropical Cyclones since 1899.
Central Pressure: 924 hPa
======================================
.At least 30 deaths
.At least 100 deaths
Warmest Regards
B0nz0
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
Bertrand Russell
15:02 +1100
k...@kymhorsell.com
> <ro...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
> news:4d48dd03$0$3032$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
>> How Cyclone Yasi compares around the world
>> [Mommy, how big is a Cat 5 Tropical Cyclone?
> Queensland has had at least three Cat 5 Tropical Cyclones since 1899.
> The worst of all time INCUDING YASI is Mahina in 1899!
"Worst" in terms of what? Number of people killed who lived in straw shacks?
--
ro...@kymhorsell.com
[On twitter people in Cairns say the wind is howling but the storm is hrs
away yet. The Met Bureau says while cyclone Larry only 4 years ago was like
"2 hours of a jumbo taking off in your living room", Yasi will be 4 hrs
of the same].
By Annabel Crabb
ABC News
Feb 2, 2011 15:24:00
What an eerie feeling it is to watch, on ABC News24, interviews with North
Queenslanders about the impending destruction of their homes.
This cyclone is bigger than Cyclone Tracy, and our interaction with it is much
more intimate; instead of those familiar images of Darwin's aftermath we now
can see and feel the approach of this behemoth live to air; on TV, Twitter,
radio, Facebook.
It's as compelling and dreadful as a horror movie, its principal character's
presence menacingly implicit in the snuffing out of the Willis Island weather
station.
Those in the cyclone's path are helpless; watching, so are we.
It shouldn't take a second disaster - hell, it shouldn't even take a single
disaster - to remind us of what's important.
But whatever happens in Queensland tonight, let's hope that whatever we are
called upon to do to help, as a nation, when the sun comes up tomorrow, we can
avoid some of the foolishness of recent weeks.
Let's hope that arbitrary obsessiveness about the precise degree of federal
surplus two years' hence, or the bickering over who has to pay levies and who
gets excused, can be replaced by a common acceptance that some emergencies are
absolute.
Let's hope that the response from Canberra is less about mutual accusations of
vile opportunism and more about a gracious retreat from the political
gun-fight in deference to the extreme misfortune of others.
Let's hope that we can all develop some faith in the idea that there are some
circumstances in which only governments can come to the rescue, and let's hope
that that faith is justified.
And in the meantime, let's hope that those in peril can hold on.
[26 more news items]
---
[Before the flood:]
The recent Murray Darling run-off since the floods would have provided
enought irrigation water to last at least 15 years.
Instead it has all run out to sea!
Crazy anti-dam greenies!
-- "BONZO"@27.32.240.172 [82 nyms and counting], 12 Nov 2010 14:05 +1100
k...@kymhorsell.com
Talking about damages, the local insurance industry is positioning itself
for the claims after the latest TC.
On the heels of news 1.5 bn AUD/USD (around partity at the moment)
in claims around Qld following the floods, with cane growers
alone saying they've lost 1/2 bn, reps for the insurers have been
doing the rounds telling people to read the fine print on their policies.
As people squat in their homes N of the Whitsundays reading by
torchlight (power is on and off some places), they're about to learn
their insurance generaously covers tropical cyclone, but not the
usual bunch of storms that follow in the wake of a cyclone.
--
>> Sure. It was also once normal to not have humans, mammals or even chordates
>> on the planet. LOL.
>Those things are gone.
...
[Rewriting history 15 m later with the aid of judicious editing:]
I said, "Those times are gone." In other words, the time of "not having
humans", "not having mammals", etc. are GONE!
-- John Smith <assembl...@gmail.com>, 21 Dec 2010 22:23:15 -0800
axmatt
<k...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
news:4d48eab2$0$22469$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> In sci.skeptic axmatt <oob...@bobo.com> wrote:
>> <ro...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
>> news:4d48dd03$0$3032$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
>>> How Cyclone Yasi compares around the world
>>> [Mommy, how big is a Cat 5 Tropical Cyclone?
>> Queensland has had at least three Cat 5 Tropical Cyclones since 1899.
>> The worst of all time INCUDING YASI is Mahina in 1899!
> [...]
>
> "Worst" in terms of what? Number of people killed who lived in straw
> shacks?
In terms of wind speed, central pressure, and damage.
e.g.
Cyclone Yasi's central pressure is going to run Mahina's 914hPa close:
Central Pressure: 924 hPa
To date it has been Australia's most severe cyclone and was a Category 5
also, killing over 400 people.
And what about the tidal surge, AMAZING!
To date it has been Australia's most severe cyclone and was a Category 5
also, killing over 400 people.
Jonathan Nott of James Cook University and Matthew Hayne of the Australia
Geological Survey Organisation describes it:
Tropical Cyclone Mahina was the most intense tropical cyclone to cross the
Australian coast in historical times. Its central pressure was recorded by
barometer at 27 inches (914hPa) as the eye approached the coast at Bathurst
Bay (Figure 1) at approximately 4.30 am on the 22nd March 1899 (Whittingham
1958).
Cyclone Yasi's central pressure is going to run Mahina's 914hPa close:
Central Pressure: 924 hPa
One of the most interesting aspects of this event was the eyewitness report
of a 43 foot (13m) surge at Ninian Bay adjacent to Barrow Point 30 km south
of Bathurst Bay which extended inland for 2-3 miles (3-5 km).
Constable Kenny, camped on a ridge fully 40 foot above sea level, was
inundated to his waist by a 'tidal wave' (storm surge and associated
ephemeral sea level rise) at his camp site
some 0.5 miles (800m) inland at approximately 5 am (Anonymous 1899).
This account suggests this surge was the largest ever recorded in Australia.
Warmest Regards
k...@kymhorsell.com
>>> The worst of all time INCUDING YASI is Mahina in 1899!
>> [...]
>> "Worst" in terms of what? Number of people killed who lived in straw
>> shacks?
> Tropical Cyclone Mahina was the most intense tropical cyclone to cross the
> Australian coast in historical times. Its central pressure was recorded by
> barometer at 27 inches (914hPa) as the eye approached the coast at Bathurst
> Bay (Figure 1) at approximately 4.30 am on the 22nd March 1899 (Whittingham
> 1958).
And this was written today? You did say the record "included Yasi".
Have you been caught out again?
So far Yasi has not hit land and only destroyed a weather station 400 km out
to sea.
--
Scientists are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
have no tolerance for ambiguity.
k...@kymhorsell.com
storms since 1864.
We have the following pattern of "number of years between multiple-storms".
year number of years model
since multiple
storms crossed
qld coast
1870 3 3.54092
1876 3 3.46395
1892 2 3.25868
1893 1 3.24585* 1-sigma
1911 8 3.01492** 2-sigma outlier
1915 4 2.9636
1918 4 2.92512
1921 3 2.88663
1927 4 2.80965
1930 3 2.77116
1934 4 2.71985
1938 4 2.66853
1939 1 2.6557*
1940 1 2.64287*
1946 6 2.5659**
1947 1 2.55307*
1948 1 2.54024
1950 2 2.51458
1951 1 2.50175
1954 3 2.46326
1955 1 2.45043
1958 3 2.41194
1959 1 2.39911
1963 4 2.3478*
1964 1 2.33497
1967 3 2.29648
1971 4 2.24516*
1972 1 2.23233
1973 1 2.2195
1974 1 2.20667
1976 2 2.18102
1977 1 2.16819
1979 2 2.14253
1980 1 2.1297
1981 1 2.11687
1984 3 2.07838
1985 2 2.06555
1990 5 2.00141*
1992 2 1.97575
1996 4 1.92443*
1997 1 1.9116
1998 1 1.89877
2000 2 1.87311
2001 1 1.86028
2004 3 1.82179
A TS regression finds there is no serial correlation (for once).
So the ordinary OLS finds there is a statistically-significant
decline in the period between years where multiple storms (as
defined by the record) cross the Qld coast.
avx 1954.043457
sdx 34.540436 (= 1.767639% of avx)
rangex 1870.000000..2004.000000 (= 6.857575% of avx)
avy 2.695652
sdy 2.292422 (= 85.041452% of avy)
rangey 1.000000..14.000000 (= 482.258052% of avy)
1 (2.2%) points > 2.000000 \sigma discarded
avx 1955.466675
sdx 33.562943 (= 1.716365% of avx)
rangex 1870.000000..2004.000000 (= 6.852584% of avx)
avy 2.444444
sdy 1.571348 (= 64.282436% of avy)
rangey 1.000000..8.000000 (= 286.363639% of avy)
10 (22.2%) points > 1 \sigma
2 (4.4%) points > 2 \sigma
y = -0.0128293*x + 27.5317
sdx 225.174
rss 102.77
se 1.54596
r -0.274025
limits for beta at 90.0% CI
tc = 1.68107 at 43 d.f.
beta in -0.0128293 +- 0.0115416 = [-0.024371, -0.00128767]
T-tests on beta:
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta != 0.000000
calculated t = -1.86863 at 43 d.f.
|t| > tc (1.68107 2-sided); reject H0
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta < 0.000000
t < tc (-1.30156 left tail); reject H0
Probabilities:
P(beta!=0.000000) = 0.931503
P(beta<0.000000) = 0.965752
limits for alpha at 90.0% CI
tc = 1.68107 at 43 d.f.
alpha in 27.5317 +- 22.5726 = [4.95911, 50.1044]
r2 = 0.0751078
calculated Spearman corr = -0.129381
Testing:
H0: vars are independent
|r| <= rc (0.306000 2-sided) at 5%; accept H0
Durbin-Watson d = 2.213607
d>du (1.380000) and d<4-du (2.620000): No auto-corr at 5%
Discussion: 2-sigma outliers were removed (1 point == 2.2% of dataset).
The OLS finds there is a 97% likely non-chance relationship
between date and number of years since previous "multiple storm" year.
I.e. in 1900 there were around 3.1 years between multiple-storm years.
But in 2000 there was around 1.9 years between multiple-storm years.
However the non-parametric Spearman test does not find a significant
relationship at 95%, so we might regard the finding as weaker than
conclusive.
But don't let your insurance rep see this output before you write your
next contract.
--
You are now in the killfile.
[2 weeks later:]
Oh come on now. That little post should not have upset you so. I
only meant for you to ponder the future.
...
Lying? You can point out where I was lying? Then do so.
-- John Stafford <nh...@droffats.net> (AKA A Moose In Love
<parkstre...@gmail.com>), 21 Dec 2010 22:33:45 -0800
ro...@kymhorsell.com
The category-five system crossed the coast at Mission Beach south of
Innisfail.
[Live coverage suggests the storm and surge tide were not as severe as
expected. There are continuing reports of 100s of people turned away from
storm refuges because they left evacuation from their homes until the last
minute. Elsewhere, a group of "mid 60s" were the first to call for help in the
middle of the storm. They had ignored warnings of the storm surge and become
worried as the waves built up. They were advised to move to the 2nd floor of
their building and hang on; no-one was coming out in 200 kph winds to get
them. The call to emergency services for assistance to leave premises was the
first of many].
February 3, 2011
North Queensland residents will be greeted by scenes of destruction at first
light when the full impact of Cyclone Yasi is revealed.
Early reports suggest the communities of Mission Beach, where the
category-5 monster made landfall about midnight (AEST), nearby Tully and
Innisfail are the worst hit.
But Yasi's fury has been felt 100s of km away - in Cairns to the
north and Townsville to the south - and all locations in between.
[In Melbourne -- 2,800 km S of Cairns -- the "anvil" clouds around 5 pm
indicated something unusual was up].
The weather bureau says there have been reports of wind gusts ranging from
180kph to 290kph in and around Innisfail and the danger is not expected to
pass for a few more hours.
"It's a phenomenal speed. Unless your house is exceptionally well built, there
will be damage, there will be trees down, incredibly dangerous conditions,
lose objects flying around as well," said Neil Bennett from the Tropical
Cyclone Warning Centre.
The picture remains unclear at Cardwell, south of Mission Beach, where a storm
surge of up to seven metres beyond the high tide mark is expected.
There are also unconfirmed reports of falls of up to 200 mm in some areas.
The weather bureau downgraded Yasi to a category-four system at 3am.
Mother-of-2 Nicky Smith, who is taking shelter with nine people in a Mission
Beach home, is riding out the tempest in darkness.
"The house is just shaking at the moment. It's very noisy. It's like a train
all around us," she said.
Ms Smith lives in a high-set house so she and her partner took in a family of
four and a couple who lived on the beachfront.
"We can't see anything. We opened the door a while ago and could just see
leaves and everything flying everywhere. It's so dark. That's the worst bit."
The town of Tully is a scene of mass devastation, with roofs torn from houses
and power poles knocked over.
Cassowary Coast councillor Ross Sorbello ventured outside briefly during the
eye of the storm to assess the damage and said the streets were strewn with
debris, while power poles had been knocked over.
"It is just a scene of mass devastation," he said. "[Cyclone] Larry was a boy
compared to this."
Flying metal
In Townsville, many parts of the city are without power, including the CBD
where a number of evacuation centres are located.
The city has been lashed by 120kph winds, but the predicted storm surge there,
however, appears to be staying well below the worst forecast.
Authorities warned yesterday that Townsville could suffer a three-metre storm
surge, flooding thousands of homes, but the weather bureau says the surge is
occurring now on top of a receding tide and the 2 forces are countering each
other.
Townsville police have had more than 600 calls for help since Wednesday
afternoon, including a roof collapse, and the ambulance has received 20 calls,
but the ferocity of the weather has prevented them from responding.
Sheets of roof iron have been ripped from a shopping centre and locals have
reported seeing metal awnings flying down the street.
Castle Hill resident Wil Kemp described the conditions as "scary".
"It's dark outside so we can't see a lot, but there are whole trees, big ones,
which just aren't there anymore," he said.
"The rain doesn't fall - it just comes in horizontally as the wind goes
roaring past."
Clare told ABC Radio that her Townsville home suffered major damage.
"We've had a massive ironbark smash through our bathroom roof and into my
brother's bedroom," she said.
"Everyone's fine, a bit shaken up. [We] just heard a massive crash and went
outside and the tree's down, our garden shed has been ripped apart and there's
metal sheets flying everywhere."
Robert White, who lives in a four-storey waterfront unit, says he is
struggling to stop his glass doors from shattering in the raging wind.
"The waves have been unbelievable, and the wind... I can't believe it," he
said.
"We've got a glass frontage on our unit and we've put our lounge suite and
everything against the windows and the doors because they're all glass and
we're just trying to hold them together."
Helpless
Deputy Mayor of the Cassowary Coast Council Mark Nolan says authorities in
Innisfail feel helpless because it is too dangerous to respond to calls for
help.
"We are getting heaps of calls up here, text messages. People are really
frightened. Anxiety levels are raging at a high level at the moment and they
just want to know when the reprieve is coming, looking forward to daylight.
"Power's out, the winds are absolutely raging at the moment, and there is a
lot of anxious people out there that just want some security from police and
emergency services."
Innisfail police Inspector Dave Tucker says he has received reports of damage
across the region.
"There has been some damage reports to police residences, and in particular in
the Mission Beach area we have got one tree that has lanced one of the
houses," he said.
Simone Austin, who is sheltering in a pub at Tully with about 60 backpackers
and 20 locals, says people there used the calm as the eye passed over to try
and repair damaged parts of the building.
"It got pretty scary right when the eye came through. You could hear a lot of
things banging into the building and there's a lot of water inside just
through rain coming in under doors and stuff."
Escape
Cairns appears to have escaped the worst of the cyclone's effects, but there
is no power at the Earlville evacuation centre.
There is about 2,500 people in the centre, where it is becoming increasingly
stifling because the air conditioning stopped.
Officials have opened some of the doors to ventilate the area, but many people
are using pieces of paper as fans to keep their children cool.
The full force of Cyclone Yasi may never be known because there are no gauges
where the monster storm made landfall.
Weather bureau spokesman Rick Threlfall says the nearest official weather
instrument to Mission Beach, where Yasi crossed, was at Lucinda, 120km to the
south.
He says the bureau is making educated wind-gust assumptions although a
post-cyclone examination will give an indication of just how destructive Yasi
was when it crossed the coast.
He says the highest "unconfirmed" report made by an an official bureau
observer was at Innisfail, and the highest confirmed wind gust was at Lucinda.
"An unconfirmed report is a 220kph gust at Innisfail," he said.
[19 more news items]
---
[Weather is responsible for climate change:]
And that's the only reason for the heat!
Strong northeast winds being superheated desert air from the inland to the
the southern capitals.
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [82 nyms and counting], 31 Jan 2011 13:42 +1100
mackemmel
<k...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
news:4d490b3e$0$3032$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> Thanks to BONZO for pointing to the record of Qld coastline-crossing
> storms since 1864.
>
> We have the following pattern of "number of years between
> multiple-storms".
>
> year number of years model
> since multiple
> storms crossed
> qld coast
>
> 1870 3 3.54092
> 1876 3 3.46395
> 1892 2 3.25868
> 1893 1 3.24585* 1-sigma
> 1911 8 3.01492** 2-sigma outlier
> 1915 4 2.9636
> 1918 4 2.92512
> 1921 3 2.88663
Huh?
What happened to the two cat 5 cyclones in 1918?
Where is the cat 5 1899 cyclone?
ro...@kymhorsell.com
by Susan Kraemer
Wed Feb 2, 2011 5:24pm EST
Reuters
After the record-breaking flooding in Australia, now what has been described
as the worst cyclone in the country's history has hit the state of Queensland.
Waves of over 14 m (46 ft) and wind gusts above 260 kph (162 mph) are
predicted [peak speeds measured over 3 sec showed over 280 kph in one location]
from cyclone Yasi. Forecasters are saying that "phenomenal seas" are
predicted - the actual technical term. It indicates that the specific wave
heights predicted are the highest on the chart.
Like the recent flooding that scientists attribute to the warmer seas due to
climate change, this more intense cyclone is also commensurate with the
long-predicted effects of warmer temperatures due to climate change.
The warmer seas intensify the La Nina and El Nino cycles in the region, making
them more frequent and more intense. El Nino brings Australia droughts, which
have been more intense. La Nina blows winds that pile up warm water in the
western Pacific and around Australia.
The ocean around Australia is now warmer than at any time in history.
This La Nina has been one of the strongest La Nina patterns ever recorded,
according to the Australian government. The flooding of Queensland on
Australia's Pacific coast has been the worst in history. Warmer ocean
temperatures increase the frequency and intensity of cyclones.
"The waters off Australia are the warmest ever measuredand those waters
provide moisture to the atmosphere for the Queensland and northern Australia
monsoon," Matthew England of the Climate Change Research Center at the
University of New South Wales told Reuters earlier this month.
Around Northern Australia and Indonesia, ocean temperatures are 0.54 C
(1 degree Fahrenheit) higher than the last 50 years, on average, and
2010 was the highest in the last ten years, which was itself the warmest
decade on record for sea surface temperatures.
Scientists collect and tabulate temperature data worldwide to find average
global temperatures of both water and air. The average temperatures have
increased, which is commensurate with the predicted effects of adding more
greenhouse gases to the air. The global average is found by counting
temperatures in some regions that are warmer than, and others that are cooler
than, the global average.
Making the changes needed to help prevent further, and worse climate change is
not hard, but it takes overcoming the habit of procrastination. You can switch
to many clean sources of energy, news of which we cover at Cleantechnica.
Two of the biggest effects you can have on reducing your own contribution to
climate change, if you drive, are to buy an electric car instead of a gas car
the next time you buy one, and to get a solar estimate for your home
electricity. An estimate is free and could yield surprising news. Few people
know that in many states, solar is now cheaper than your utility electricity.
For a larger effect, vote for the party in your country that espouses the
policies that encourage the switch to clean energy with incentives that
counter the natural tendency to procrastinate on making a change.
[25 more news items]
k...@kymhorsell.com
the Qld coast has decreased in the past 100 years. While the trend
was statistically significant on the T-test, it was not highly
significant on a Spearman test.
Now let's look at the number of significant storms in any given year.
Year Number of storms model
crossing qld coast
1864 1 1.09261
1867 2 1.11758* 1-sigma outlier
1870 2 1.14255
1875 1 1.18416
1876 2 1.19248
1878 1 1.20913
1882 1 1.24242
1884 1 1.25906
1888 1 1.29235
1890 3 1.309*
1892 2 1.32564
1894 1 1.34229
1896 1 1.35893
1898 1 1.37558
1899 1 1.3839
1903 1 1.41719
1906 1 1.44216
1907 1 1.45048
1908 1 1.4588
1910 1 1.47545
1912 1 1.49209
1913 1 1.50042
1915 2 1.51706
1916 1 1.52539
1917 1 1.53371
1918 2 1.54203
1919 1 1.55035
1920 1 1.55868
1921 2 1.567
1923 1 1.58364
1925 1 1.60029
1926 1 1.60861
1927 2 1.61693
1928 1 1.62526
1929 1 1.63358
1930 3 1.6419*
1931 1 1.65022
1932 1 1.65855
1934 3 1.67519*
1936 1 1.69184
1937 1 1.70016
1938 2 1.70848
1939 2 1.7168
1942 1 1.74177
1946 2 1.77506
1947 2 1.78338
1948 4 1.79171**
1949 1 1.80003
1951 3 1.81667*
1954 2 1.84164
1955 2 1.84996
1956 1 1.85829*
1957 1 1.86661*
1958 2 1.87493
1959 3 1.88326*
1963 2 1.91655
1964 3 1.92487*
1965 1 1.93319*
1967 4 1.94984**
1970 1 1.9748*
1971 4 1.98313**
1972 3 1.99145*
1973 2 1.99977
1974 3 2.00809*
1975 1 2.01642*
1977 2 2.03306
1979 3 2.04971*
1980 3 2.05803*
1981 3 2.06635*
1983 1 2.083*
1984 3 2.09132*
1985 2 2.09964
1986 1 2.10796*
1988 1 2.12461*
1989 1 2.13293*
1990 3 2.14125*
1992 2 2.1579
1993 1 2.16622*
1994 1 2.17454*
1995 1 2.18287*
1996 3 2.19119
1997 2 2.19951
1998 2 2.20783
1999 1 2.21616*
2000 4 2.22448**
2001 3 2.2328
2003 1 2.24945*
2004 3 2.25777
The analysis again finds no serial corr, so an OLS finds:
avx 1942.505371
sdx 38.465214 (= 1.980186% of avx)
rangex 1864.000000..2004.000000 (= 7.207187% of avx)
avy 1.903226
sdy 1.098039 (= 57.693552% of avy)
rangey 1.000000..5.000000 (= 210.169494% of avy)
5 (5.7%) points > 2.000000 \sigma discarded
avx 1942.988647
sdx 38.873627 (= 2.000713% of avx)
rangex 1864.000000..2004.000000 (= 7.205395% of avx)
avy 1.750000
sdy 0.907669 (= 51.866821% of avy)
rangey 1.000000..4.000000 (= 171.428571% of avy)
32 (36.4%) points > 1 \sigma
4 (4.5%) points > 2 \sigma
y = 0.00832256*x + -14.4206
sdx 364.696
rss 63.2905
se 0.857867
r 0.356438
limits for beta at 90.0% CI
tc = 1.66276 at 86 d.f.
beta in 0.00832256 +- 0.00391128 = [0.00441127, 0.0122338]
T-tests on beta:
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta != 0.000000
calculated t = 3.53808 at 86 d.f.
|t| > tc (1.66276 2-sided); reject H0
H0 beta == 0.000000 against H1 beta > 0.000000
t > tc (1.29147 right tail); reject H0
Probabilities:
P(beta!=0.000000) = 0.999347
P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999674
limits for alpha at 90.0% CI
tc = 1.66276 at 86 d.f.
alpha in -14.4206 +- 7.6011 = [-22.0217, -6.81953]
r2 = 0.127068
calculated Spearman corr = 0.605826
Testing:
H0: vars are independent
|r| > rc (0.432000 2-sided) at 1%; reject H0
Durbin-Watson d = 2.293973
d>du (1.615000) and d<4-du (2.385000): No auto-corr at 5%
Discussion:
The T-test finds >99% beyond-chance trend indicating the number
of severe storms crossing the Qld coast has increased over time.
In 1864 around 1 storm hit Qld each year; by 2004 this had risen
to more than 2.
Unlike the "gap between multiple storm years", this data shows
a significant relationship according to both the T-test and
Spearman rank test at 99% significance.
The relationship is therefore "conclusively" shown.
The r2 shows about 13% of the year-to-year variation in number
of storms corresponds with a simple increasing trend of around
.83 cyclones per year over 100 years.
--
[A]s a Conservative, I have no tolerance for ambiguity.
ro...@kymhorsell.com
[Yasi isn't over just yet]
By Brooke Bannister
ABC North Queensland
3 Feb, 2011 9:41AM AEST
The Cyclone Warning Centre warns of a possible high risk storm surge that
could cause inundation in Townsville area as the seas reach a high tide.
Tony Auden from the Cyclone Warning Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology says
despite Tropical Cyclone Yasi being downgraded to a category 2 storm system
there is still a threat of storm surges in Townsville.
A high tide storm surge is expected between Ayr and Port Douglas between 9am
and 10am on Thu morning but it is not expected to be as high as first thought.
"But we do have a broad area of expected higher than normal tides, possibly
above the highest astronomical tide of the year," Mr Auden said.
Mr Auden agrees that Townsville City Council should be concerned about a high
tide storm surge this morning because the Ross River Dam is now at capacity.
"Given that we saw the cyclone come across on a lower tide I suppose the water
levels in that part of the world could be higher than what we saw at the
actual [cyclone] crossing."
Mr Auden says it should not be an extremely high tide but there is a
moderate to high risk which could cause problems and inundation.
State Emergency Service (SES) 132 500
Cyclone Yasi evacuation hotline 1300 993 191
[24 more news items]
---
Scientists are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
have no tolerance for ambiguity.
It proves that all science is lies and the only thing we can trust is
right wing rhetoric.
ro...@kymhorsell.com
[Pacific cyclone trends: <http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/cyclone.html> ].
Voxy News Engine
25 Jan, 2011
UNICEF and partners responding to prevent hunger and disease Protecting
children's development a key concern Port Vila, Vanuatu 25 Jan, 2011 - An
estimated 16k people, almost half of them children on the islands of Tanna
and Erramango in Vanuatu's Tafea Province face immediate hunger and lack of
safe water following a tropical cyclone that destroyed food crops and damaged
water sources.
Tropical Cyclone Vania ripped through Vanuatu's TAFEA Province on 13-14
Jan, pounding the islands with heavy rains and wind gusts up to 130kph. A
joint assessment by the government, UNICEF and partners has revealed an almost
complete destruction of crops on the islands - leaving families without food
or incomes for the next 6 m. Damage to water systems and extensive
flooding in some areas has raised concerns over access to clean water. With
ground wells contaminated and health centres impacted, there is a real risk
for disease outbreaks.
UNICEF Pacific's Emergency Response Coordinator, Hamish Weatherly said:
"People were clearly fearful for their immediate future. Villagers would walk
us through their gardens which are their only sources of food and livelihoods,
most totally destroyed, then lead us to a water tank, empty because a
landslide had cut the pipe at its source. They are well aware of the fact that
if they fall sick, there is no medicine in their local health post to help
them recover."
Reports show that the province suffered considerable damage to all crops,
notably losing all banana and manioc and much of the taro and kava, the main
food produce and source of income. Parts of the province were already
experiencing food shortages due to a drought earlier in the year and
heightened vulnerability due to ash from Mt. Yasur volcano. In addition, a
substantial number of houses were destroyed and rendered unusable.
A joint assessment mission including UNICEF and others has focused concern on
food and nutrition. As crops serve both nutritional needs and are the main
source of income, the livelihoods of the population are heavily affected and
their capacity to cope diminished. Water, sanitation, shelter and education
are also concerns.
In response, UNICEF will work with partners to ensure the provision of clean
drinking water to the most vulnerable communities on Tanna Island. Emergency
medical supplies will also be provided to under-resourced health centres where
an increased caseload is expected. UNICEF experts will work with the Vanuatu
government to ensure that emergency food rations are nutritionally sound and
meet the needs of vulnerable groups, particularly infants and young children.
UNICEF is also moving proactively to protect gains made in children's
development in Tafea province. Since 2008, these islands have been the focus
of intensive investment in education, health, and child protection. The
province has made tangible strides in advancing children's rights.
"Without appropriate and timely support there is a real risk that these gains
can be lost. Pacific communities have tremendous resilience in the face of
these disasters. But each storm and sea surge erodes their long-term
development and exacerbates inequities. With climate change this is only
getting worse." UNICEF Pacific's Chief of Planning and Policy, Samantha
Cocco-Klein noted.
[23 more news items]
mackemmel
<ro...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
news:4d4a07ac$0$3033$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> Australia's Worst Cyclone in History Follows Queensland Floods
>
CORRECTION:
The worst cyclone in history was the cat 5 Mahina in 1899.
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Phillip Hudson
Herald Sun
Feb 03, 2011 12:00AM
A massive rescue and clean-up operation led by the armed forces, codenamed
Operation Yasi Assist, will be launched today.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard said 4000 soldiers stationed in Townsville and
ships sheltering from the cyclone were ready to deal with the aftermath of
what she said could be "the worst cyclone that our nation has ever seen".
Helicopters and planes will help with critical aerial surveillance to find the
most damaged areas and identify danger such as fallen electricity poles and
wires.
Brigadier Stuart Smith, the Commander of the Townsville-based 3rd Brigade,
will lead the operation. He said specialist aviation, engineering, health and
logistical support was standing by.
Yesterday, air force mercy flights on C-130 Hercules and C-17 Globemasters
took 173 patients from 2 Cairns hospitals to Brisbane, including four
high-need patients and 102 on stretchers.
Defence also shifted 50 Townsville nursing home residents to Brisbane, flew in
sandbags and food and helped police go door to door for the mandatory
evacuation of some homes.
Ms Gillard promised the Government would help rebuild damage caused by Cyclone
Yasi.
She said there were no plans to increase the proposed $1.8 bn flood levy
on incomes above $50,000 to pay for the Queensland and Victorian flood damage.
Ms Gillard received a political boost yesterday with WA Nationals MP Tony
Crook becoming the first non-government MP to back the levy.
Mr Crook said, after talking with the PM and winning an exemption for
flood-hit residents in WA's Gascoyne region, he was convinced the levy was
"adequate and responsible".
[31 more news items]
---
A scientist cites a data point that is consistent with a trend and
says "This data is consistent with the trend; no surprise". A
kook cites a data point inconsistent with the trend and says
"Surprise! The trend is Wrong Wrong Wrong!".
ro...@kymhorsell.com
["Worst" has several interpretations. E.g. the population if Qld now is 4.57
mn and almost all will be affected by Yasi in some way. While there are no
reported deaths or significant injuries, tourism, bananas, sugar, coal,
insurance premiums -- all have been significantly hit. In some towns like
Tully [(pop 2,500), around 1/3 of the inhabitants have lost their homes. Of
course there are some deniers that claim there is no interpretation that makes
Yasi worse than their favourite candidate].
Thu 03 Feb 2011
Telegraph.co.uk
Here is a list of the most deadly cyclones in history:
1. Bhola Cyclone
In Nov 1970, 500,000 people were killed when the Bhola Cyclone hit what
is now Bangladesh. The storm was formed from the remnants of Tropical Storm
Nora, which raged for 2 days in the South China Sea. At its peak, the
cyclone had winds of 115mhp. In India, a 5,500-ton freighter was sunk by the
massive amounts of rain caused by the cyclone. East Pakistan lost over $65
million (�40m) worth of crops and cattle and 85 percent of homes were
destroyed.
2. Indian Cyclone
In 1839 a powerful cyclone struck India, killing 300,000 people.
The entire city of Coringa was flattened by a 40ft storm surge and more than
20,000 vessels at sea were completely destroyed. Coringa was never rebuilt.
3. The Calcutta Cyclone
There are few records about this cyclone, but the weather system is known to
have killed 300,000 people and destroyed 20,000 ships when it hit Calcutta in
1737. It was originally reported in Europe to be an earthquake, but a duties
collector for the British East India Company wrote in his official report that
a storm and flood had destroyed nearly all the thatched buildings and killed
thousands of the city's inhabitants.
4. The 1975 Super Typhoon Nina
The Super" Typhoon Nina was one of the largest recorded typhoons in history
and the second most deadly hurricanes in the Pacific. The short-lived but
intense storm began in the Philippine Sea and on July 31 began to move towards
China. The highest recorded wind speed at 155mph. Although it missed most of
the major cities in Asia, the death toll reached 210,000. The storm caused
US$1.bn in damage and caused 62 dams to fail and massive temporary lakes to
form.
5. The Great Backerganj Cyclone
In 1876 this cyclone formed over the Bay of Bengal. Its maximum wind speed
recorded was at over 136mph and the largest storm surge was 45ft. The cyclone
killed around 200,000 people and the property damage was massive. The storm
also caused famine and epidemic.
6. Cyclone Nargis
In May 2008 Cyclone Nargis hit Burma, packing winds of up to 133mph.
As it slowly travelled over the country, 1.5 mn people were affected. The
Labutta Township alone was reported to have 80,000 dead, with about 10,000
more deaths in Bogale. An estimated total of 146,000 people died. Relief
efforts were slowed for political reasons as Burma's military rulers initially
resisted large-scale international aid.
7. The Bangladesh Cyclone
On the night of April 29, 1991, the southern part of Bangladesh, Chittagong,
was hit my a powerful Cyclone., with wind speeds of up to 160 mph. At least
138,000 people died in the storm, with most of the deaths in the southern part
of Bangladesh. Most of the people drowned, including children and the
elderly. The storm caused over $1.5bn in damage to the surrounding areas.
8. The Bombay Cyclone
Little is known about this cyclone, that hit Bombay in 1882, killing 100,000
people.
9. The Swatow Typhoon
The Swatow Typhoon was first spotted July 27 near the Caroline Islands in the
Pacific Ocean. The typhoon moved slowly north as it intensified. In August
the typhoon hit the Chinese city of Swatow with the winds blowing at
100mph. The water levels as the storm hit were 12ft above normal and left the
land saturated with water many days after. Nearly 50,000 people were taken as
the storm swept over Swatow.
The total death toll was around 60,000 people.
10. Calcutta Cyclone
On Oct 5, a powerful cyclone hit near Calcutta, India, killing around
60,000 people. Over 100 brick homes and tens of thousands of tiled and straw
huts were leveled. Most ships in the harbor (172 out of 195) were either
damaged or destroyed.
[30 more news items]
ro...@kymhorsell.com
[As of 4 pm E time Yasi has been downgraded to TC1. It's headed for Mt
Isa and will reach the mining centre before midnight].
Ray Brindal
Dow Jones Newswires
Feb 02, 2011 2:27PM
The sugar industry in Australia, the world's 3rd-largest exporter, is facing
one of its biggest ever disasters in the next 24 hr as Tropical Cyclone
Yasi bears down on the prime growing and milling region on the country's
NE coast.
Yasi will add to the woes of an industry that was battered by poor weather
and floods through the key harvesting and crushing period in the latter half
of 2010, and it will further affect Queensland, which has only just started to
recover from deadly and devastating flooding in S and central regions
over the past m.
At time of publication, Yasi was rated at the highest category-5 level, with
winds exceeding 280kph. Yasi is expected to cross the coast between Cairns and
Townsville in Queensland around 1300 GMT, after intensifying while travelling
westward through the Coral Sea.
"Severe TC Yasi is a large and very powerful tropical cyclone and poses an
extremely serious threat to life and property within the warning area,"
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported. "This impact is likely to be more
life-threatening than any experienced during recent generations."
Farmer lobby Canegrowers has estimated the cost of Yasi will exceed $500
million, including crop losses and damage to farming infrastructure, which
also covers sheds and machinery.
Canegrowers chief executive Steve Greenwood said: "The half-a-billion
projected losses don't even start to include the cost of broader damage to
infrastructure, such as the road and rail network, houses, property, mills and
ports."
Theoretically, insurance premiums for sugar-cane growers in the region would
be so high as to make cover financially impractical.
Some growers stand to lose 100% of their crop, a blow from which they
may never recover, he said.
Yasi is projected to cross an area that accounts for least 1/3 of
Australia's sugar cane crop, almost 1/2 of the industry's 26 sugar mills and
4 of the industry-owned coastal export terminals and associated storage and
handling infrastructure.
Companies with milling assets in the area include Singapore-based Wilmar
International, Bundaberg Sugar - a unit of Belgium's Finasucre - and
Maryborough Sugar Factory.
Yasi looks set to track the movements of devastating Cyclone Larry, which 5 y
ago wiped out 40-50 of crops in its direct path, he said.
Neil Taylor, chief executive of marketing concern Queensland Sugar, which
operates the export terminals, said the company has developed contingency
plans "for this once-in-a-generation event. Our focus is on not letting
international customers down". He wouldn't comment on specific activities.
While sugar cane is a resilient plant and is traditionally capable of
withstanding some tropical storms, Yasi is likely to result in losses due to
its severity and because of the significant proportion of cane left standing
in fields after last year's harvest, Luke Mathews, the farm commodity
strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said yesterday.
Some 20% of the cane crop was left standing last year, unable to be cut
before the harvest ended ahead of Christmas, resulting in a 20% decline
in raw sugar production to around 3.6m tons in this financial y ending June
30, and a corresponding decline in export availability.
The cost of the weather-related damage to the sugar industry in 2010 was
estimated at $470m by Abares in Dec.
[30 more news items]
---
mackemmel
<ro...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
news:4d4a3a37$0$13389$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> Cyclone Yasi to hit 26 sugar mills, 4 coastal terminals
>
A drop in the bucket compared to cat 5 Mahina of 1899.
ro...@kymhorsell.com
[Latest reports say Yasi's central pressure was around 930 hpa. The
interior of Qld is seeing 90-100 kph winds at present, as the now TC1
heads toward Mt Isa].
ABC Online
Feb 3, 2011
ELEANOR HALL: Like Cyclone Larry, Yasi is devastating the region's key crops -
bananas and sugar cane.
It is still too early to calculate the financial cost of the cyclone.
Some farmers are struggling to even get out to their fields to assess the
damage as Lexi Metherell reports.
LEXI METHERELL: It's still too early to assess the full economic cost of
Cyclone Yasi but it's clear banana and sugar cane crops have been decimated.
JONATHAN ECCLES: The cyclone that passed right through Tully which is a major
growing area for bananas in Australia has done severe damage to crops there on
the coast in the Innisfail, Tully and Cardwell area.
LEXI METHERELL: North Queensland produces about 90% of all Australian
bananas.
The chief executive of the Australian Banana Growers Council Jonathan Eccles
says there's now only wk left until Australia's domestic banana supplies run
out.
JONATHAN ECCLES: The industry in that area is worth about $380 mn to the
far north Queensland economy. So it's a significant contributor.
LEXI METHERELL: And 30% of Australia's sugar cane is grown north of
Townsville.
Steve Greenwood is the chief executive of the peak body for canegrowers.
STEVE GREENWOOD: Some of the growers I've spoken to early this morning are
indicating it's very hard to even get past their front gate because of amount
of devastation to crop they're seeing.
LEXI METHERELL: He expects at least 1/2 a bn dollars in losses.
STEVE GREENWOOD: Definitely much worse than Larry. The area that has been
impacted is far, far wider. Larry was quite an intense this cyclone and for
that area that it hit it actually caused a lot of damage.
This cyclone - equally intense but a far wider reach.
LEXI METHERELL: What are farmers telling you?
STEVE GREENWOOD: The words they're using is absolute devastation. They're
absolutely shocked as to how much cane they're seeing destroyed and machinery
damaged.
They are - and these are quite seasoned growers. These are growers that have
been through cyclones before. But they're using words like you know the worst
ever.
LEXI METHERELL: He says they'll now be focusing on salvaging what they can
before the harvest starts in June.
The only silver lining for canegrowers is that sugar prices are high at the
moment. And on global markets overnight raw sugar hit a 30-year high as
traders reacted to the cyclone.
The deputy executive director of the official commodities forecaster
ABARES is Paul Morris. He says it's unlikely that consumers will pay more for
sugar because most of the sugar that comes from north Queensland is exported.
But it's a different story for bananas.
PAUL MORRIS: We did see retail prices increasing 3 times the normal price as a
result of Cyclone Larry.
So given that the domestic market is supplied solely by the domestic
production of bananas if similar devastation has occurred this time round we
can expect retail prices increasing to a similar sort of extent.
LEXI METHERELL: The key mines in the path of the cyclone are further west in
Mount Isa and Cloncurry. A spokesman for the region's biggest miner Xstrata
says it's not yet clear how strong the storm will be when it reaches them.
He says it's too early to tell how shipments will be affected. But the
Townsville port which Xstrata uses remains closed.
The insurance industry is readying itself for a rush of claims. Suncorp is the
most exposed to the region.
Insurers say it's too early to estimate damages. But Cyclone Larry cost the
industry $540 million.
[30 more news items]
---
mackemmel
<ro...@kymhorsell.com> wrote in message
news:4d4a07ac$0$3033$afc3...@news.optusnet.com.au...
> Australia's Worst Cyclone in History Follows Queensland Floods
>
> by Susan Kraemer
> Wed Feb 2, 2011 5:24pm EST
> Reuters
>
> After the record-breaking flooding in Australia, now what has been
> described
> as the worst cyclone in the country's history has hit the state of
> Queensland.
>
Oh really??
One notable cyclone is the CATEGORY 5 MAHINA CYCLONE OF 5th March 1899,
WHICH MOST LIKELY DWARFS YASI.
To date it has been Australia's most severe cyclone and killed over 400
people.
Here is one interesting eyewitness account of the Mahina cyclone .
"Constable Kenny, camped on a ridge fully 40 foot above sea level, was
inundated to his waist by a 'tidal wave' (storm surge and associated
ephemeral sea level rise) at his camp site
some 0.5 miles (800m) inland at approximately 5 am (Anonymous 1899)."
This account suggests this surge was the largest ever recorded in Australia.
Warmest Regards
B0nz0
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
Bertrand Russell
14:05 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
'Baby' Larry [only 4 y back] didn't compare to Yasi
Govt says damage "significant"
180k homes in the region without power [maybe for several days]
[So far, no reports of death or even significant injuries. The 6
"over 60s" that called the SES from a beach-front unit for help from
threat of tidal surge during the height of the storm are unhurt.
Central pressure of Yasi is believed to have been 930 hpa. Core
windspeeds are inversely related to pressure, so Yasi seems to exceed
all cyclones in Qld history, let alone affecting more people.
Qld presently has 4.6 mn pop -- 10x the 1900 level and 3.5x 1920].
Dan Nancarrow
Feb 3, 2011
SMH
Reports of vast structural damage to housing as dawn breaks in Tully, where
residents bore the brunt of Cyclone Yasi.
Yesterday morning Craig Murray and Daryl Brown had a picturesque 2-acre
property on a hill overlooking South Mission Beach and Dunk Island, complete
with its own rainforest.
When Cyclone Yasi tore through the area early this morning, that all changed.
"It's like a napalm bomb (sic) has gone off," Mr Murray said.
"There's tree branches everywhere. Everything's broken, everything's stripped.
"You can see neighbours' houses you could never see before."
The pair spent last night huddled for hours in the concreted bottom level of
their 2-storey Carmoo home, 12km from Mission Beach, as water poured into
the house through cracks in the doors and windows. The remnants of the lush
greenery surrounding Craig Murray's home at Carmoo, near Mission Beach, on Feb
3.
"All you could hear was trees snapping and the sound of the wind, which was
like a jet engine landing on top of you," Mr Brown said.
"When it hit at midnight it was horrendous; it howled for hours and hours.
"We went through [Cyclone] Larry and I'd say this was 10 times worse."
Yasi hits north Queensland
As Yasi passed over they could feel the air pressure being sucked out of their
ears. After 2 hr of these roaring winds, the pressure dropped and there was
dead silence.
"After 10 minutes of it being quiet we actually went out on to the balcony of
the house and had a look and it was beautiful starry night, it didn't even
look like a storm," Mr Murray said.
"Then 30 minutes later it started again from the other side and it was worse."
Water may have soaked the inside of their home but outside is where the real
damage occurred.
From their spot on the hill the pair said they could see extensive damage to
the surrounding region, homes with newly constructed extensions torn away and
roller doors blown off, while vegetation near the Hull River has been
completely stripped, although the river's mangroves seemed intact.
Twelve-metre-tall trees on their property have been torn out of the ground.
"We're just looking at everything and going 'wow, wow'," Mr Murray said.
"There's too much to do outside, I'd rather start on the inside first.
"After Cyclone Larry it took 12 to 18 m for everything to grow back. I think
this might take a bit longer," Mr Murray said.
[28 more news items]
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Joseph Aldridge
Northland Northern Advocate
3rd Feb 2011
Last Fri was officially Northland's wettest Jan day ever, with towns from
Kaitaia to Warkworth recording their highest one-day rainfall totals for the m.
The tail-end of ex-tropical Cyclone Wilma brought heavy rain to Northland last
Fri and Sat, causing widespread flooding, damaging property and roads.
The NIWA climate summary for Jan showed Whangarei recorded the region's
highest rainfall on Fri (211mm), the highest on a Jan day since records began
in 1943.
Heavy as it was, the rainfall fell well short of Whangarei's wettest-ever
recorded day in May 1975 when 309mm fell.
The rain did, however, break records in Leigh, which experienced its wettest
day since records began in 1967.
Cape Reinga (130mm), Kaitaia (124mm), Kaikohe (210mm), Dargaville (100mm) and
Warkworth (161mm) also recorded their highest Jan one-day rainfalls on Fri.
The extraordinary downpour pushed up monthly rainfall totals in the region to
record levels, giving Dargaville (212mm total) and Leigh (383mm) their wettest
Jan on record.
Whangarei recorded a massive 359mm rainfall for the whole of Jan, its second
highest Jan total ever - and more than 4 times the Jan average for the city.
Whangarei also received 58% of its total Jan rainfall on Fri.
But despite all the wet weather, Northlanders enjoyed warmer than normal
temperatures throughout Jan.
NIWA's national climate summary showed 3 Northland towns with record, or near
record, mean maximum daily air temperatures.
Kaikohe's 25.7C mean for Jan was the hottest, with Kaitaia on 24.8C and Leigh
on 24C.
[30 more news items]
---
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Julie Alipala, Edwin Fernandez and Frinston Lim, Inquirer Mindanao with
AP and Kristine L Alave in Manila
Philippine Daily Inquirer
03:27:00 02/05/2011
Zamboanga City, Philippines. At least 7 people, including 3 children, were
killed after floodwaters inundated parts of Jolo on Wed following a wk of
unceasing rain.
5 of the fatalities were from Sulus coastal capital of Jolo where raging flash
floods on Thu night swept away houses and damaged hundreds of homes, the Sulu
provincial disaster coordinating council said on Fri.
Some 25 people were injured in the disaster, the disaster office said. At
least 2 people have been reported missing.
The floodwaters and sea surges reached up to eight feet (2.4 meters) in some
areas, like Asturias and San Raymundo villages, said Jolo Mayor Hussin Amin.
This is the first time I've witnessed this kind of flooding, Amin said in a
phone interview.
Even vehicles were carried away by the strong current, he said.
Electricity was cut off and vessels stayed away from the islands port because
of big waves.
Like a catch basin
US troops stationed at the Jolo airport, which remained open, joined Marines
and civilian volunteers in rubber boats to rescue some of those trapped.
100s of US troops have been training Filipino soldiers who battle Muslim
rebels hiding in the jungles of Jolo and on nearby islands.
The water was too deep in some areas that even our trucks could not reach
these areas so we had to deploy rubber boats, said Col. Remigio Valdez, a
Marine Brigade commander.
Jolo town is like a catch basin surrounded by mountains so the water from the
rains just surged down the slopes into town, Valdez told the Associated Press.
Amin said the entire town is now under water. He described the situation in
Jolo today as similar to 2009 when the town was hit by Tropical Storm Ondoy.
He said the floodwaters have receded a few meters to only waist-deep, but then
noted that it had started to rain again on Fri.
We need prayers
Jeffrey Sampang, a reporter of dxMM radio, said people climbed up the roofs of
their houses to escape the raging waters.
The provincial disaster office said at least 300 houses were damaged in the
floods.
The Sulu social welfare office is still consolidating reports of the damage,
said Maydelin Bahjin, the office director.
Fr Charlie Inzon of the Notre Dame of Jolo told dxMS radio in Cotabato City
that the floods occurred after 2 freak tornadoes hit coastal villages in the
town.
It was really devastating, people were surprised by the waters sudden rise,
Inzon said.
He said the situation was compounded by watertriggered by weeklong
rainsrushing down the mountains.
Even the Jolo Cathedral was not spared, the water reached the altar, Inzon said.
Amin said food and medicines were the immediate need of families affected by
the disaster.
We also need prayers, he said.
Other provinces affected
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council reported flooding
in other Mindanao provincesMisamis Oriental, Gingoog City, Agusan del Norte,
Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Camiguin island.
In Compostela Valley, 2 people died after they were swept by floodwaters on
Wed, the police said.
Snr Spt Aaron Aquino, Compostela Valley police chief, said the body of
Teresita Alcon, 50, was fished out of a river in Osme�a village in Compostela
town on Fri, 2 days after she was swept away.
The body of the other victim, identified as Rocel Antipuesto, 6, of Elizalde
village in Maco was recovered after he drowned on Wed.
The cause of it all
The rains that caused the flooding in southern Mindanao were due to a
low-pressure area off the coast of the Zamboanga peninsula, said Robert Sawi,
chief weather forecaster of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
Low-pressure areas (LPAs) usually form in southern Mindanao at this time of y,
said Sawi, but noted that the rains were uncharacteristically heavy this time.
The LPA carried plenty of moisture because of the enhanced La Ni�a, Sawi said.
As of Fri, the LPA was sighted 130 km southwest of the Zamboanga peninsula,
Pagasa said.
This weather system is expected to bring scattered to widespread rains over
the Zamboanga provinces, Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi, which may trigger flash
floods and landslides, the weather bureau said.
Residents living in low-lying areas, along river banks and along the mountain
slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions, it said.
The LPA is moving toward southern Palawan and local governments in the area
were warned to brace for heavy rains.
Provinces in Southern Luzon and the Visayas will be cloudy and will experience
rainshowers, Sawi said.
[39 more news items]
---
It takes more than warmth to grow crops; otherwise the Sahara would be green!
--
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 21 Jan 2011 11:16 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
[Another depression is developing in the S Pac S of Fiji. The BOM
says it's presently not tracking toward AUS, but experts expect
another 2 cyclones to cross the Qld coast in the next 8 wks based on
historical data].
2011-02-06 11:31 AM
Associated Press
A storm will move across the northern Sea of Japan on Mon, bringing a
mix of rain and snow to the region. Cold air pouring in into the area will
dampen daytime temperatures from the Yellow Sea through the Sea of Japan
region.
Tokyo will rise into the mid-teens Celsius, while Seoul will be cooler with
highs near 5. Shanghai will see temperatures in the lower teens.
In Australia, a low pressure system in the middle of the country will
bring heavy rain to central areas. Elsewhere, light rain is expected between
Brisbane and Sydney.
Sydney and Melbourne will rise into the lower 20s, while Brisbane will see
highs in the upper 20s.
[56 more news items]
---
Scientists are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
have no tolerance for ambiguity.
It proves that all science is lies and the only thing we can trust is
right wing rhetoric.
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Floods continue unabated
By Arthur Wamanan
Nation [Sri Lanka]
5 Feb 2011
The incessant rains in several parts of the country have called for more
humanitarian assistance for those who have lost their homes and livelihoods.
The prevailing weather conditions in most parts of the country have once again
left 1000s homeless for the second time in 2 months.
This time, however, the number of people that have been affected is somewhat
lesser than last time. The people in the N Central and Eastern Provinces have
been warned of the situation and have been advised to be on alert. The
situation has forced many schools to once again temporarily halt their
activities for the safety of the children and the teachers. Some of them have
been converted into temporary shelters for those who have been displaced.
While priority has been given for the wellbeing of the affected people, the
focus has also been on unprecedented effects of climate change.
The Meteorological Department admits that this was the worst weather condition
experienced by the country in the past many years. It has been predicted that
the prevailing weather conditions would ease in the southern and western pars
of the country during the coming days. Director General of the Meteorological
Department, G B Samarasinghe pointed out that it was not unusual for the
country to face rains this part of the year. "We are now in the N E Monsoon
period. Therefore, rains are expected in the Northern and Eastern Province
during this period," he clarified. However, Samarasinghe accepted that the
climate was very different from the past y due to several factors affecting
the weather conditions around the world.
Samarasinghe attributed the present climate to the La Nina effect in the
Pacific region and explained the reasons behind the unusual weather condition
experienced in the country. "Changes in weather are very normal. But, we
should understand that these changes do not depend on the factors related to a
specific country or region. It is not an isolated incidence. The changes in
climate in other parts of the world too affect the conditions here. For
example, the adverse climate in Sri Lanka is mostly due to the La Nina effect
in the Pacific region," Samarasinghe explained. He also pointed out that the
people were warned of the situation a wk earlier. Samarasinghe added that
though there were signs of the situation improving in the East, the rains were
likely to continue for a while.
Nearly one mn people have been affected and more than 185k people from 11
districts have been displaced due to rains and floods. The displaced have
been sheltered in 543 temporary evacuation centres. The Disaster Management
Centre (DMC) reported that the highest displacement had been recorded in the
Trincomalee (65,688), Batticaloa (78,973), Polonnaruwa (18,325) and Ampara
(14,029) Districts. The Eastern Province once again has been heavily affected
owing to the prevalent weather conditions, as was the case last month. "This
time is far worse than the last time. Almost the whole of Batticaloa is
getting flooded. We have never experienced this before," said K Krishanthini,
a resident in Batticaloa. Deputy Resettlement Minister, Vinayagamurthi
Muralitharan who was in the E last wk said several villages in Batticaloa N
had gone under water leaving 1000s of people homeless. "It does not look as
if the rains would stop anytime soon. Villages such as Urani, Valaichchenai
and Siththandi have gone under water," he said.
Muralitharan pointed out that the water released from the Roogam Tank had also
flooded these areas. Muralitharan had met with Batticaloa Government Agent
(GA) Sundaram Arumainayagam and other officials and had briefed them on the
steps needed to be taken. However, sources in Batticaloa said the rains had
eased by yesterday afternoon but added more showers could be expected.
Trincomalee GA, Major General T R Silva stated that the situation was handled
well by the authorities. He said the situation could be managed through the
experience gained last month. The affected people are now being provided with
cooked meals. Muralitharan also added that they would be provided with dry
rations in the future.
With the rains showing no signs of providing respite, the government and the
humanitarian agencies are once again pushed to ensure the people are on safe
grounds. The latest situation report released by the UN Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) on Fri said water continued to
spill over from tanks and reservoirs in most of the provinces, despite the
precautions taken by the Irrigation Department. The authorities were forced
to open the sluice gates of water reservoirs due to incessant rains that hit
the Eastern and the N Central Provinces for the second time this year.
The report stated that this time, the water level was rapidly increasing and
things were being washed away by strong currents, which was not the case last
month. "Many towns are submerged and access roads to the provinces continue to
be flooded," the UN OCHA report said. The DMC said a total of 984, 256 people
belonging to 295,816 families have been affected due to the prevalent adverse
conditions. According to DMC most of the affected are from Trincomalee
(326,638 people), Ampara (98,501 people), Batticaloa (225,080 people) and
Polonnaruwa (20,638 people) districts. The DMC has recorded 7 deaths from
Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Vavuniya, Ampara and Kalutara. In addition 5 injuries
have also been reported. 2 persons have been reported missing.
While people on lower grounds face troubles due to flooding, those on the
mountain slopes in the hill country are faced with a different
problem. Several places have been affected due to landslides. Authorities
warned residents of Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla and Kandy of possible
landslides owing to unceasing rains. A situation of emergency was also
declared in Matale late last week, following heavy rains. The DMC has warned
the people living near reservoirs and tanks of flood risks and has asked them
to be on the alert.
At the same time, several relief operations have been organised and
implemented by the government and humanitarian agencies.
Disaster Management Minister Mahinda Amaraweera pointed out that damage could
be minimised this time due to the precautionary measures taken by the
authorities. The government has already instructed the Divisional Secretaries
of the affected areas on providing the people with immediate assistance.
"We are working with the Navy and the Air Force to rescue the people from the
flooded areas. We have boats and helicopters on standby," the Minister
said. "We also coordinated with the Met Department. That was how we were able
to manage the situation." The Minister, however, added the damages could not
be calculated as the situation had not improved.
The UNOCHA said that it had received US$ 11.6 mn towards the flood response
including US$ 7.7 mn mobilised through the Flash Appeal launched on Jan
18. The UN has said that it would continue to work with the government in
providing assistance to those in the flood affected areas. A team of UN
officials including the Head of Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) Sri Lanka were in the E last wk to assess the situation and
discuss on how assistance could be provided.
The UN had launched a flash appeal for US $51 mn for the flood affected areas
last month.
The appeal was made by UN Deputy Humanitarian Chief Catherine Bragg following
her visit to the country last month. UNOCHA Head in Sri Lanka Barbara Manzi
said that assistance to the current flood victims would be provided through
the amount received by the flash appeal. She said the appeal would be revised
during the course of this month.
Deputy Resettlement Minister, Vinayagamurthi Muralitharan said the recent
flood situation had revealed the need to restructure Batticaloa's drainage
system.
Muralitharan told The Nation that the flood situation in most parts of the
district was due to improper drainage system that had intensified the flood
situation. "We realised that we had to restructure the drainage system in the
region. We are right now focussing our attention on assisting the public.
The military is once again at the forefront of carrying out rescue operations
in the flood hit areas of the Eastern and the N Central provinces. Military
spokesperson Maj. Gen. Ubhaya Medawala said the military had evacuated at
least 41k people in the N Central Province and had taken them to various
welfare centres. "We are providing the people with dry rations. The government
too is drawing some of the stuff from our stock," he said. The dry ration
given by the military is taken from their own stores where they have one m
stock available for the soldiers.
[51 more news items]
mackemmel
[Giant storms around the planet, connected by avg sea temps N of Aus].
Philippine Daily Inquirer/AP/AFP
02/05/2011
Chicago -- A mammoth winter storm left dangerously slick roads and frigid
Midwestern temperatures in its frozen footprint Thu, a day after crushing
snow-laden buildings in the Northeast.
Three people were killed when the pickup truck they were in drove off a
snow-covered Oklahoma interstate and plunged 25 m into an icy river. Wind
chills dipped to nearly 30 below in parts of the countrys midsection as the
region began dealing with the storms aftermath.
The stormone of the largest since the 1950sground travel nearly to a halt Tue
and Wed, and authorities warned that road conditions remained treacherous even
though the storm had dissipated.
Officials also warned people to be careful of slippery sidewalks and not to
strain themselves while shoveling, noting that 40 people died of heart attacks
in the aftermath of a 1999 blizzard in Chicago.
Mayor Richard Daley spoke publicly for the 1st time to defend his citys
handling of the storm, which stranded 100s of motorists in whiteout conditions
on the famous Lake Shore Drive.
In a city known for punishing politicians for winter weakness, the retiring
Daley said when pressed that he wouldnt have handled anything differently and
that workers responded well.
Criticism of the citys response to a 1979 blizzard played a major role in
Mayor Michael Bilandics defeat.
Airports crippled
The sprawling system unloaded as much as 60 cm (2 feet) of snow across its
3,200-km path, crippling airports and stranding drivers from Texas to S
Dakota, where authorities rescued some motorists from more than 150 vehicles
that had become trapped overnight after high winds sent fallen snow drifting
onto an interstate in the northeast part of the state.
Icy roads were blamed for a 15-vehicle chain-reaction crash in southeastern
Louisiana that resulted in a few minor injuries.
Authorities in northeast Oklahoma said the pickup truck that drove into the
Spring River jumped a guard rail on Interstate 44 shortly before dawn while
carrying eight people.
The ground temperature was 11 degrees below zero, so it would take only a
second to become hypothermic in this water and ice, said Lt. George Brown, a
spokesperson for the Oklahoma Highway Department.
Dramatic rescue
An Oklahoma news crew captured the dramatic rescue of the eight people.
Six people had managed to climb onto the roof of the truck and the other 2
were able to stay out of the frigid water which seeped inside. But 3 of them
nonetheless died from exposure and the conditions of the others were unknown,
News on 6 reported.
The wk storm had rendered the interstate impassable earlier in the wk and
the lane in which the pickup was driving had not reopened until late Wed.
3rd floor collapses
In the Northeast, officials had warned homeowners and businesses for days of
the dangers of leaving snow piled up on rooftops. As the storm cloaked the
region in ice and added in to the piles of snow already spread across the
landscape, the predictions came true. No one was seriously injured, however.
In Middletown, Connecticut, the entire 3rd floor of a building failed,
littering the street with bricks and snapping 2 trees. A gas station canopy on
New Yorks Long Island collapsed, as did an airplane hangar near Boston,
damaging aircraft. Roof cave-ins also were reported in Rhode Island.
The Midwest was reeling from the storms wallop as the system swept
eastward. Chicagos 51 cm (20.2 in) of snow was the citys 3rd largest
amount on record.
The system was blamed for more than a dozen deaths before Thu, including a
homeless man, who burned to death on Long Island as he tried to light cans of
cooking fuel, and a woman in Oklahoma City, who was killed while being pulled
behind a truck on a sled that hit a guard rail.
Airport operations slowed to a crawl across the United States.
Havoc in Australia
In Australia, battered by Cyclone Yasi, the government marshaled 4k troops
and sent a supply ship with tons of food to the countrys northeast coast Fri,
as awe-struck residents in wrecked towns confronted debris that included boats
tossed into neighbors yards.
Authorities confirmed the 1st death from the storm that slammed into the coast
early Thu and said a search was underway for 2 missing people.
Yasi destroyed dozens of homes and ripped roofs and walls from dozens more. It
cut power supplies in 2 regional cities and laid waste to 100s of millions
of dollars worth of banana and sugarcane crops.
I just hope we dont get forgotten, said Lisa Smith, whose house had part of
its roof torn off in the hard-hit, seafront town of Cardwell. She complained
that state and federal officials had not yet given her remote community any
substantial help.
Yasi, a maximum-category 5 storm reportedly large enough to cover most of the
United States and with winds stronger than Hurricane Katrina, whipped the
coast with up to 290-kph winds and sent waves crashing ashore 2 blocks into
seaside communities, as 10s of 1000s of people huddled in evacuation centers.
Worse storms ahead
Australia will face storms of increasing intensity as a result of climate
change, a respected think-tank said Fri.
Researchers at the prestigious Climate Institute in Sydney said that warmer
temperatures were expected to produce more intense torrential downpours like
Yasi, particularly in the countrys tropical north.
Sadly, Australia must prepare for more of these types of catastrophic events
and even greater extremes as climate change drives more frequent and more
intense wild weather, said John Connor, the institutes head.
[61 more news items]
ro...@kymhorsell.com
8 Feb 2011, 5:05 pm
Press Release: NIWA
World experts converge in Wellington for the Extreme Weather Conference
Over the past decade, predicting the weather, and understanding the changes in
climate, has emerged as one of the most important and topical areas of
scientific endeavour.
An international community of over 200 scientists will converge on Te Papa in
Wellington this wk for the Extreme Weather Conference, from 9 -11 Feb. The
scientists will share information, and work to better understand extreme
weather events such as recent damaging storms in New Zealand, and Cyclone
Yasi, which hit northern Queensland last wk with destructive winds reaching
290 km per hour.
Cyclone Yasi demonstrated the importance of forecasting, and how, when
combined with good preparation, this can dramatically reduce the impact of a
cyclone.
Tropical cyclones occur almost twice as often in La Niña y as they do in El
Niño y in eastern Australia. Scott Power, an Australian scientist who is a
plenary speaker at the conference is using a new database with one of the
world's longest reliable records of tropical cyclone activity dating back to
the late 19th century to analyse patterns of cyclone activity. Land-falls of
cyclones have occurred almost twice as often in La Niña y as in El Niño years,
and multiple land-falls have only occurred during La Niña years.
Power's research paper is just one of 120 papers to be presented at the
conference. The recent cyclones and floods in Australia, and storms in New
Zealand, have emphasised the importance of the science being developed and
presented at this conference. The topics cover many aspects of meteorological
and oceanographic research in the Australasian region. NIWA's Chief Scientist,
Climate, Dr David Wratt will be speaking on recent developments in climate
science.
Extreme weather resulting in emergency situations can be expected to become
more frequent as a result of expanding settlements, combined with higher
temperatures and climate change. NIWA's Dr Mike Revell, who chairs the
conference organising committee, says, "The conference offers us the
opportunity to share findings on recent research with the Australians, and to
learn more about climate, oceanography, and extreme weather in Australasia."
The cost of climate change
One of the key issues that will be discussed at the conference is the
influence of climate change on the cost of weather-related disasters.
Neville Nicholls, from Monash University, Australia, will look at a
time-series of the economic costs of weather-related disasters: bushfires,
floods, tropical cyclones, which typically exhibit a strong increase over, for
instance, the 20th century. Nicholls will explore the lessons that have been
learnt from the devastating Queensland floods. Those floods give a clear
indication of the need for improved planning for our settlements and
infrastructure.
NIWA natural hazards scientist Dr Stefan Reese, who recently took part in the
damage assessment of the floods in Brisbane, will chair a session on the
impacts of extreme weather events on buildings and geographic areas. That
session will also look at guidance on where people should build to avoid
impacts from these events.
Conference presentations will cover 6 key areas: o extreme weather in the
Australasian region - from floods to droughts
o impact and meteorology of the main climate drivers (ENSO e.g. El Niño and La
Niña,)
o using high-resolution models to understand local meteorology
o oceanography of the Australasian region
o climate change in the Australasian region
o impacts of natural catastrophes in the Australasian region.
Award winner acknowledged
At the conference, NIWA's Dr Andrew (Drew) Lorrey will be presented with the
2010 Kidson Medal by the Meteorological Society of New Zealand for his
scientific paper "Regional climate regime classification as a qualitative tool
for interpreting multi-proxy paleoclimate data spatial patterns: a New Zealand
perspective"
This is a joint conference being held by the Meteorological Society of New
Zealand and the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society.
Research topics that maybe of interest to journalists include: The Pacific
Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) presented by Scott Power on behalf of
participating scientists and staff in Australia and participating
countries. The Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) is an AUD$20 mn
program to help the pacific countries gain a better understanding of how
climate has changed in the past and how it may change in the future.
Trends in public opinion on climate change, as reflected in contributions to
Australian Newspapers Will be presented by David Karoly who investigated
trends over time in public opinions on climate change in Australia through a
content analysis of letters and contributed editorials published in 5 major
Australian newspapers. The data covered 4 year, 2006-2009, from before the
release of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 to after the
Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009.
Physical and chemical oceanography of the Macquarie ridge region Dr Mike
Williams, NIWA, will present new work and addresses the physical and chemical
oceanography of the Macquarie Ridge region.
[69 more news items]
---
[A]ll science is lies and the only thing we can trust is right wing rhetoric.
mackemmel
Feb 09, 2011 23:22 PM
Johor Baharu, Feb 9 (Bernama) -- More and more evacuees left flood
relief centres and headed home as flood conditions in Johor and Melaka improved.
In Johor, the number of evacuees staying at 53 relief centres in Muar,
Batu Pahat, Ledang and Segamat, dropped to 11,576 as 6,037 were allowed
to return home since morning.
According to the official website of the Johor state government,
www.johordt.gov.my, there were 6,186 in Batu Pahat, comprising 1,366
families; Muar (2,686 from 714 families), Ledang (2,396 from 604
families) and 308 from 75 families in Segamat.
Reports also said that the Jalan Pogoh Tekam Seksyen 1-Seksyen 3
(Chodan to Tekam) in Segamat remained closed to all traffic as it was
submerged in 1m of flood waters for almost 1km.
In Muar, Km62-71 Jalan Muar-Labis (Labis border) remained flooded
(0.35m) but remained open for traffic while Km60-61 Bukit Kepong was
closed for all traffic said the report.
Floods in Johor has claimed 5 victims.
Meanwhile, in Melaka, 118 evacuees from 31 families remained at relief
centres in Jasin, namely 88 in Sekolah Kebangsaan Parit Penghulu and 30
at Sekolah Kebangsaan Seri Mendapat.
[90 more news items]
---
Of course "global temperature are rising" [...]
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Dick Whitaker
[Dick Whitaker is senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel].
The Australian
Feb 12, 2011
Over the past 6 m Australia has endured an almost unprecedented period of
weather disasters. These include flash floods, severe thunderstorms,
broad-scale inundation, tropical cyclones and in complete contrast, bushfires
that have devastated large tracts of the south-western mainland.
Much of this devastation has been attributed to the Pacific Ocean La Nina
phenomenon.
But does this really apply to the Western Australian situation, in particular
to the bushfires?
El Nino and La Nina: To take a step back, for many centuries Peruvian
fishermen were aware of a warm ocean current that periodically appeared around
Christmas time along the W coast of S America.
It was dreaded by the locals because it decimated their main fish catch: the
cold-water anchovy. When they detected increasing ocean temperatures, knowing
that the supply of their main food source would be likely to dwindle, they
planted sweet potatoes to cover the deficit.
They called this phenomenon El Nino (Spanish for boy). It was realised in more
modern times that this was not just a local event but part of a broad warming
of the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters which stretched 1000s of km
westward from the S American coastline.
Further research into the phenomenon showed that El Nino was part of an ocean
temperature "seesaw", that constantly rocks back and forth across the
equatorial Pacific.
Normally the sea surface temperatures across the western parts are much warmer
than those in the E because of prevailing winds and ocean currents, but on
occasion this situation is reversed and El Nino develops.
As with most things in nature there is an opposite phase: La Nina.
This is when sea surface temperatures cool over the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean, leaving conditions over the western Pacific,
adjacent to Australia, far warmer. This configuration was given the name La
Nina (Spanish for girl).
Like the Peruvians, the Fijians were aware of this phenomenon and they related
it to the behaviour of the mango tree. They believed when the mango tree
flowered early, a bad tropical cyclone season would follow.
There is science behind this observation as the tree will flower early when
waters in the surrounding ocean are warmer than normal, and this in turn
promotes tropical cyclone development.
In modern terms we would say the same thing in a different way. That is,
during times of La Nina, there is usually increased tropical cyclone frequency
over the western Pacific Ocean, a neat convergence of ancient and modern science
.
For much of the time, sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific
are somewhere between an El Nino and a La Nina, with cycles between the 2
occurring in an irregular fashion.
When the temperature patterns are between the recognised El Nino and La Nina
thresholds, the situation is said to be neutral.
El Ninos tend to occur roughly every 3 to eight years, and typically last for
12 to 18 months. La Ninas or neutral conditions dominate for the rest of the tim
e.
What are the main effects?
Both these situations have a profound effect on Australian weather, with
rainfall tending to "follow" the warmer areas of water across the Pacific.
El Nino is normally associated with drier than average conditions for eastern
and southern parts of the country, while La Nina conditions tend to promote
above-average rainfall over most areas of eastern, central and northwestern
Australia.
These effects are particularly pronounced during winter and spring.
Is Western Australia affected?: The rainfall response in Western Australia to
Pacific Ocean temperature variations is far more varied than the other
states. During La Nina in particular, well-above-average rain can be expected
across the tropical north.
As we head southwards particularly into the southwest land division, including
the areas around Perth, the effect of La Nina fades and other weather patterns
such as the position of highs, lows and cold fronts become more important to
the rainfall totals we can expect.
Rainfall over southwestern parts of Western Australia occurs primarily during
winter and spring. It is largely determined by the movement of cold fronts.
Last y the frequency of these fronts was far less than normal, rainfall was
well down, and we saw the tragic failure of much of the winter wheat crop.
As summer set in, the inevitable rise in temperatures across the already arid
landscape awaited only one further ingredient for disaster: wind. And last Sun
gusty, easterly blasts fanned major blazes across the Perth hills, destroying
more than 60 houses and 1000s of hectares of forest.
But was this really the consequence of La Nina?
Probably not. Other destructive fires occurred across south-western areas of
Western Australia in 1937, 1961 and 1978, but none of these y was a strong
La Nina situation. Rather, the blazes were a consequence of dry weather in the
previous few months, high temperatures and strong winds produced by adjacent
tropical cyclone activity.
Climate change?: Following the momentous events of the past 6 months, many
people are asking if climate change is somehow lurking behind the scenes here,
but in this respect expert opinion is somewhat divided.
Some climatologists believe that rising ocean temperatures around northern
Australia (about 1.5C above pre 1970s levels), will produce more intense La
Ninas, even if their frequency remains the same. Warmer oceans produce warmer
air above, and an atmosphere of this type can hold far more moisture that then
becomes available for rain.
The unusually strong monsoon that produced devastating floods across India and
China in the middle of last year, followed by the flooding disaster in
Pakistan in August has been linked to this pattern.
However, other experts have remarked that although it is almost certain that
rising ocean temperatures will be affecting the La Nina /El Nino seesaw it is
too early to say how.
They point out that the period of recorded history is too short to reach any
firm conclusion.
But what seems indisputable is that Dorothea Mackellar's description of the
Australian climate - a land of "droughts and flooding rains" - is entirely
correct. Much of this is due to the restless surge of warm waters back and
forth across the tropical Pacific Ocean.
[85 more news items]
ro...@kymhorsell.com
Melissa Martin
Queensland Country Life
13 Feb, 2011
Disaster-weary Queensland breathed a sigh of relief this wk when Tropical
Cyclone Zaka appeared S of Fiji, but continued to move south, steering clear
of Australia's E coast just days after the Category 5 Yasi left a trail of
destruction across the Far North.
But with the wet season far from over, forecasters say there is a "decent
chance" of more tropical cyclones forming and threatening the state in the
next 6 to eight weeks.
History shows that some of the most destructive tropical cyclones to hit
Australia's northern regions in the past 100 y have occurred in the Feb/ March
period.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry crossed the coast near Innisfail in March 2006;
severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid caused significant impact in March 2005 across
the coastlines of Queensland, NT and WA; while severe Tropical Cyclone Monica
menaced Queensland and the NT in April 2006.
On March 21 last year, severe Tropical Cyclone Ului made landfall near Airlie
Beach on the Whitsunday Coast.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Matthew Bass said the bureau would now be
watching for more monsoonal bursts.
"While the monsoon is weak, chances of another tropical cyclone are low," Mr
Bass said.
"But sea-surface temperatures are still warm throughout the whole Coral Sea
and the Gulf as well.
"We haven't seen anything in the Gulf this y yet, so we've got to keep an eye
on that area as well.
"You can get tropical cyclones in late April, early May at the very latest,
but the next 2 m are going to be the most likely time for it.
"Warm sea-surface temperatures are one of the necessary factors for spawning
cyclones - they have to be above 27deg C for the cyclones to form, while
28-29deg C is generally what's needed for cyclones to become severe."
On average, 4.7 tropical cyclones pa affect the Queensland Tropical Cyclone
Warning Centre Area of Responsibility.
Since 1858, there have been 207 known impacts from tropical cyclones along the
E coast.
[89 more news items]
---
[A]s a Conservative, I have no tolerance for ambiguity.
Robot
Yasi's great arc of chaos surges south
Jim O'Rourke and Peter Jean in Townsville
Feb 6, 2011
SMH
SES: 3700 calls in less than 24 hours
Torrential rains continue to cause flash flooding across the state. Emergency
Services say people should not be on the roads or playing in floodwater.
THE BIG PICTURE: CYCLONE YASI STRIKES
It will die tomorrow but cyclone Yasi continues to exert a massive influence
on the weather across eastern and central Australia.
The death toll remains at one after a married couple who were the focus of a
search at Port Hinchinbrook on the N Queensland coast were found, police
said last night.
There was also frustration that SES workers had only arrived yesterday.
"We've had 2 days of having to clean up and do everything ourselves. No
army, no SES, no council workers," said Christine Boric, 57, who owns a shop.
In its wake, Yasi, now weakened to a tropical low, has caused flash flooding,
hailstorms and 90km/h winds in an arc from Queensland's NW, through
Alice Springs and as far S as Melbourne.
Huge amounts of warm, moisture-laden air brought across the continent by one
of the largest cyclones in memory have been dragged south, colliding over
Victoria with a large cold front heading north. A house in Mourilyan,
south of Innisfail broken in 1/2 by cyclone Yasi. Click to play video
As a category 5 cyclone released its fury on the N Queenland coast,
residents could do little but shelter from the storm. We look at the wk that
brought us Cyclone Yasi.
That front "ingested" the moisture, causing huge cloudbursts that dumped
rainfall of up to 200 mm in just 2 hr over Melbourne and regional Victoria.
Thunderstorms were also recorded in NSW's SW and hailstones "as big
as golf balls" fell in Mildura.
In Melbourne's NE, an English tourist is in a critical condition after
a tree fell on her while she slept in a tent at a caravan park.
While Victoria coped with flash flooding in suburban Melbourne early
yesterday, forcing the rescue of 84 people from homes and cars, 4000 calls to
the SES and the closure of train lines, major roads and freeways, Sydney was
in the seventh day of a heatwave.
But the Bureau of Meteorology said Yasi was not affecting Sydney's
weather. The heat was due to a hot northerly airstream, caused by a
slow-moving high-pressure system in the Tasman Sea, bringing hot air from the
centre of the continent, coupled with high humidity, cloudy nights and high
ocean temperatures.
Yesterday Yasi was hovering over the Northern Territory about 430 km
SW of Mount Isa, causing heavy rain in far W Queensland.
Federal Opposition Leader Tony Abbott arrived in Townsville yesterday, and was
drenched by a storm as he helped soldiers clean up. He visited an ice factory,
which was overrun by residents desperate to prevent food from spoiling as
parts of the city experienced a 3rd day without electricity.
Before flying N to visit Innisfail and Tully, Mr Abbott said the damage
done to N Queensland by Yasi would not cause the Opposition to reconsider
its objection to proposed flood levy. Coles, meanwhile has promised not to
import bananas despite damage to N Queensland's crops.
[86 more news items]
---
Of course "global temperature are rising", we're emerging from an ICE AGE!!
Robot
Strong winds and heavy rain have caused havoc in Darwin.
Residents of Darwin has been warned to prepare a kit and be ready to evacuate.
Feb 15, 2011 20:37:00
A cyclone warning has been declared for Darwin and the Top End, the Bureau of
Meteorology says.
The warning covers coastal areas from the Daly River mouth to Point Stuart,
including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
A cyclone watch is current for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River
Mouth and Point Stuart to Cape Don.
A tropical low situated about 85 km SW of Darwin at 5:00pm (ACDT) is expected
to move into the Beagle Gulf and may develop into a tropical cyclone during
Wed, possibly about 4:00pm.
"Gales with gusts to 110 km per hour are expected to develop between Daly
River Mouth and Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, during
Wed," the bureau said.
"Destructive winds with gusts to 130 km per hour may develop over the Tiwi
Islands late Thu if the cyclone continues to intensify.
"Heavy rain may cause widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly
District."
Residents have been advised to make final preparations ahead of the expected
cyclone. Schools in Darwin and Palmerston will be closed tomorrow.
"Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you do not have
accommodation constructed to the building code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use," the
bureau said.
"You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready.
"Do not proceed to public emergency shelters until advised to do so."
Police have asked Darwin motorists to take extra care on the roads and expect
delays.
About 237 mm of rain fell at Dum-in-Mirrie, near Darwin, in the 24 hours to
9:00am on Tue, while 170 mm fell in the Darwin suburb of Marrara as the
tropical low moved over the Top End.
Unsafe for visitors
The Northern Territory Wildlife Park and the Darwin Botanic Gardens have both
been closed due to the wild weather.
Heavy rains caused localised flooding in the Wildlife Park, making it unsafe
for visitors.
In the Botanic Gardens, strong winds damaged trees. The area will remain
closed until loose debris and foliage can be cleared.
The operators of the Mandorah ferry say strong winds and heavy seas will
prevent the ferry from running today.
"It's not just choppy, it's blowing about 40 knots," said Gus Withnall from
the Sea Cat Ferry Service.
"They don't think they'll even be able to dock the ferry at the other end
because of the strength of the wind."
Speaker of the Legislative Assembly Jane Aagaar interrupted Parliament to make
the announcement this evening.
"I've just been advised that all schools are going to be closed tomorrow and
all non-essential public servants are not to go to work tomorrow," she said.
"So I'm waiting for further advice from the Chief Minister, but I imagine that
it will mean that our Parliament will not be sitting either."
[77 more news items]
---
[To Bonzo:]
Where do you even get the time for this parade of regurgitation? Paid
by the post from some Exxon/Mobil scheme? I actually wouldn't doubt
that. It takes work to match the Oznob level of mindless repetition.
Tiny classified ad at http://adelaide.craigslist.com.au that changed
Bonzo's life:
"Don't miss this work at home opportunity, mate! Disinfo jockey needed
for environmental topic on the Internet's oldest forum system. Paid by
character typed. Some pasting allowed. Must not repeat same paragraph
more than once a fortnight. Experience writing porn novellas
preferred. Must have experience with anagrams."
-- Enough Already, 24 Nov 2008
Robot
Joe DeCapua
Feb 15, 2011
VOA
Teams on foot and in helicopters are assessing the damage done Mon in
Madagascar by Cyclone Bingiza, a category 3 tropical storm. It may be a few
days before the full extent of the damage is known, but there's concern that
prime agricultural land may have been hit hard.
John Uniack Davis, country director in Madagascar for CARE International,
says, "The cyclone hit at 6 o'clock in the morning yesterday.... It's a
pretty strong storm. It 1st hit at the southern tip of the Masoala Peninsula,
which is a remote area with some of the densest tropical forests in
Madagascar."
Initial reports say a small village there was destroyed. No word on
casualties there or elsewhere in the country. Masoala National Park in the
northeast is a large protected area with about 2300 km2 of
rainforest. It's described as sparsely populated.
CARE Madagascar
A flooded home in Antalaha
"[The storm] didn't lose any force because it was still mostly over water in
northeast Madagascar. And it came back and it apparently hit land a second
time about 30 to 40 km next to the district center of Manana.
Learning more
Uniack Davis says most of the information is anecdotal at this point.
"The national disaster risk management agency, along with Care's emergency
coordinator and personnel from...Food for Peace Consortium are doing
helicopter over flights (of) the areas in and near the path of the cyclone,
trying to get a sense of the percentage of structures that are damaged, the
level of damage to the structures," he says.
Most of the dwellings, he says, are made from traditional material that cannot
stand the force of the cyclone.
"And then also look at administrative infrastructure - hospitals, schools and
the like and how much they're affected," he says. The economic effects of the
storm are also being assessed, especially the agricultural sector.
"The area that was hit on the northeast coast is the main cash crop-producing
area with coffee, cloves and vanilla bean," he says.
Assessment teams are expected to spend the night in the port of Antalaha,
before heading inland Wed.
[97 more news items]
---
[W]omen are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100
Robot
[Latest news is the TD has been upgraded to Cyclone Carlos].
Schools and a number of other institutions across the Darwin region have shut
down.
16 Feb 2011 07:54:00 +1100
Flights have been cancelled in and out of the northern Australian city of
Darwin after record downpours forced the closure of the city's airport.
A cyclone warning is currently in place for Darwin where a tropical low has
already brought heavy rain and gales of up to 110 km an hour.
More than 300 mm of rain has fallen at Darwin airport since early Tue,
breaking the previous record of 290.4 millimetres.
Schools and a number of other institutions across the Darwin region have shut
down.
All schools from Batchelor to the Tiwi Islands will be closed, including those
in Darwin and Palmerston.
A few staff will remain at schools but the Northern Territory Government is
urging parents to keep their children safe at home.
Courts will also be closed, along with the Darwin Port.
The Darwin Port Corporation last night advised boats and ships to leave Darwin
Harbour and stopped those coming in.
At Royal Darwin Hospital emergency surgery and urgent elective surgery will
still go ahead but less urgent surgery may be re-scheduled.
It's likely the Territory Parliament will sit, with Chief Minister Paul
Henderson expected to address the legislative assembly about the weather
situation.
[96 more news items]
---
Robot
[In other news Virgin has suspended flights in/out of Darwin for 24 hrs. Last
reports say the Cat 1 storm is moving very slowly -- about 7 kph -- and will
hang around for a while. While a couple dozen homeless people are in shelters,
authorities say the storm is presently not strong enough to warrant opening
shelters tonight].
Feb 16 2011
Nine News
Residents on the Cox Peninsula and the Tiwi Islands in the Northern Territory
have been told to boil their water after power outages from Tropical Cyclone
Carlos caused water supply problems.
The Northern Territory Department of Health (DoH) issued a statement on Wed
advising people in Belyuen, on the Cox Peninsula, and the Tiwi Islands, just N
of Darwin, that water could not be delivered to their communities from a
secure supply.
DoH environmental health senior policy officer Karen Beirne said that, as a
precaution, water for drinking, food preparation and cleaning teeth should be
obtained from bottled supplies or by boiling tap water for 3 minutes and
allowing it to cool.
"Residents who experience diarrhoea symptoms should seek advice from the
health centre or other health service," she said.
The NT Emergency Service (NTES) has established an emergency telephone
hotline.
The free hotline number is 1800 888 901.
To find out about road conditions, people can telephone 1800 246 199.
In the event of fallen power lines, people are urged to call 1800 245 090, and
to report fallen trees they should call the Emergency Telephone Hotline on
1800 888 901.
[88 more news items]
---
What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100
Robot
[One cyclone finishes; another threatens WA].
Tropical Cyclone Dianne sitting off the WA coast may develop into a category 3
system
Feb 17, 2011
ABC News
People in coastal areas in the Pilbara are being warned to prepare for the
possibility of a category 3 cyclone developing off the coast.
Tropical Cyclone Dianne is currently a category 1 system, about 385 kms north
W of Exmouth.
If Dianne moves closer to the coast, wind gusts of up to 100 km an
hour could develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Cape Cuvier later
today.
The Bureau of Meteorology's James Ashley says communities between Exmouth and
Cape Cuvier can expect gale force winds tomorrow and there is a chance the
cyclone will head towards the coast.
"There's certainly that possibility if it takes a more south-eastwards track,"
he said.
"Certainly for the next 48 hours, it's fairly unlikely but it is certainly a
possibility and people in that N W corner of the state should keep an eye out
for the latest advice."
[100 more news items]
---
[I am Luddite!]
You whackos just keep changing your "predictions" to suit reality!
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 16 Feb 2011 15:57 +1100
Robot
Hannah McNeish
Feb 16, 2011
VOA
Damage Assessments Underway After Cyclone Bingiza
Antananarivo, Madagascar -- A tropical cyclone that hit Madagascar on Mon has
brought damage and flooding to towns and villages in the northeast of the
country and killed at least 6 people. Relief workers are still assessing the
damage but reports indicate that flooding to houses, roads and crops in the
pre-harvest, so-called lean season, could lead to food shortages in the area.
Our reporter visited the devastated region earlier this wk and reports from
Madagascar's capital, Antananarivo.
Tropical Cyclone Bingiza struck the village of Vinanivao on the northeast
coast of Madagascar around dawn on Mon morning.
Authorities say there were winds of up to 180 km per hour, and more than 600
homes were destroyed, leaving 1000s without proper shelter.
Damage to the bridge and road has left the small fishing village cut off from
food markets The cyclone also damaged more than 200 other buildings and ruined
about 500 hectares of rice just m away from harvest.
While official evaluations are carried out in the farming region, helicopter
assessments of the worst hit areas surrounding Vinanivao show widespread
damage, with houses crushed and missing roofs and crops battered by winds or
floods.
Nurse Jean Michel from a village inland said the cyclone had stranded nearby
villages and ruined crops.
Michel said the storm came from the E with heavy rain and such strength it
damaged crops.
Charity CARE International's Emergency and Disaster Relief Coordinator, Didier
Young, said although the category-two cyclone has not done as much structural
damage as expected, flooding to rice paddies could mean food shortages this year
.
"If a cyclone hits at the beginning of the season, it is still possible with
short cycle varieties to replant, but after the beginning of Feb it's becoming
almost impossible, because it's not going to grow," said Young. "It's going to
get cold before the plants produce grain, so there will be no harvest."
CARE's Head of Project, Dasy Ibrahim in Antalaha, a coastal city in northeast
Madagascar, said damage to short cycle crops and trees during the lean season,
when supplies of food and money are at their lowest until the main harvest in
April, could make the food shortages immediate.
Ibrahim says things people live off during the lean season, like manioc,
bananas, and fruits, have been knocked to the ground by the cyclone and they
can't get them back immediately because it takes a y for a banana tree to
regrow and manioc rots wk by wk so people aren't going to have much to eat.
The only thing left for farmers whose rice harvest is destroyed is to use
seeds from relief groups to plant corn, but those living off cash crops such
as cloves, vanilla and coffee destroyed by strong coastal winds would be
seriously affected.
Relief agencies will deliver plastic sheeting and food supplies via boat to
the worst hit areas of northeast Madagascar that have been cut off, and
rebuild the houses of the most vulnerable who cannot seek out new materials
from the forests.
[98 more news items]
---
[Sucked in:]
> 1/2 of what he posts always contradict the other 1/2.
> One day 50 ppmv is the warming cutoff.
Oh Puuhhleeeeeeze easy with the strawman!
Not "cutoff" but 90% of the warming effect below 50ppm.
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 11:27 +1100
Robot
According to Northern Territory News Tropical Cyclone Carlos has inundated
Darwin with record rainfall.
AAP
Feb 17, 2011
Darwin residents are mopping up and assessing the damage left by Tropical
Cyclone Carlos, as the storm today moved off the coast and away from populated
areas.
Schools, courts, pubs, tourism attractions, the Northern Territory parliament
and Darwin Airport are expected to remain closed today as authorities
re-assess the situation.
The NT Counter Disaster Council is due to meet again today for a briefing from
the Bureau of Meteorology.
The Bureau of Meteorology confirmed that many of Darwin's rainfall records had
been broken or were under threat in the wake of the severe storm, which lashed
houses and inundated the Top End.
The category one system hovered over the Northern Territory capital yesterday
but didn't hit residents as hard as Tue, the bureau said.
The storm early today was moving away, taking its howling winds and torrential
rain with it.
Bureau duty forecaster David Matthews said gusts of about 90km/h had dropped
to about 60km/h.
Since 9am yesterday, Stokes Hill Wharf in Darwin had received 226mm of rain.
Senior forecaster at the bureau Mark Kersemakers said Darwin airport recorded
its highest gust at 98km/h, but last night the strongest gust topped just
85km/h.
Cyclone Carlos had helped Darwin break a number of rainfall records, he said.
So far this month, Darwin has already recorded at least 830mm, beating the
previous Feb monthly record of 814mm, in 1969.
The city needed to receive only a further 300mm by the end of April to beat
its previous wet season record of 2499mm set in 1997-98, Mr Kersemakers said.
Just before dawn the bureau issued its 14th advisory warning for areas from
Port Keats to Oenpelli, including Darwin, Batchelor, Adelaide River and the
Tiwi Islands.
The Tropical Cyclone was estimated to be moving southeast at 9km/h.
[99 more news items]
---
Of course "global temperature are rising" [...]
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100
Robot
[For trends in Pacific storms see <http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/cyclone.html
> ].
NECN
Feb 16, 2011
Camp Springs, Md. (AP) -- The active winter weather pattern over the United
States continues, as another Pacific storm is belting an area from California
to Washington state, and Eastward to Montana.
Much of it will fall as rain in the lower elevations, but forecaster Brian
Korty at the National Forecast Desk in Camp Springs, Maryland, says the Sierra
Nevada will be measuring snow by the foot.
The storm will then move into the Great Basin and Upper Plains, bringing more
winter weather to that section of the country.
And as the storm moves out, cold air from Canada will pour into the lower 48,
ending the Feb warm-up that many parts of the country have been enjoying.
[98 more news items]
---
[Cause and effect:]
>[explanations for climate change]
You left out "emerging from an ice age"!
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 12:40 +1100
Robot
[Another day, another 2 cyclones].
Trouble Brewing: Category One Tropical Cyclone Dianne has formed off the N W
coast, while thunderstorms have dumped massive rainfall on the northern
Goldfields.
Warning: The Tropical Low threatening NW WA has now become a
Category One Cyclone Dianne.
Kalgoorlie: A storm dumped 16mm on Kalgoorlie flooding normally dry streets.
Corey Stephenson
PerthNow
Feb 17, 2011
A Tropical Cyclone has formed off the NW coast threatening 100km/h gales for
Exmouth and Coral Bay, while Laverton in the Northern Goldfields has been
flooded after a massive downpour.
The Bureau of Meteorology said Tropical Cyclone Dianne is a Category One
cyclone which has winds up to 120km/h at its centre,which are intensifying.
At 8am the slow-moving cyclone was about 400km northwest of Exmouth.
A Cyclone watch has been declared for coastal areas from Onslow to Exmouth and
Coral Bay to Overlander Roadhouse, 705km N of Perth. At 8am Cyclone Dianne
was estimated to be 385km northwest of Exmouth and 480km north-northwest of
Coral Bay and is near stationary. The Bureau's Cyclone warning said:
"Tropical Cyclone Dianne is expected to drift slowly S during Thu.
"If it moves closer to the coast gales with gusts to 100km/h may develop in
coastal areas between Exmouth and Coral Bay late on Thu or Fri.
"Gales with gusts to 100km/h may extend E to Onslow and S to Overlander
Roadhouse later on Fri."
Current predictions show Dianne could become a Category 3 cyclone by Fri
night.
Unstable moist air brought thunderstorms to parts of the Goldfields with
Laverton, N of Kalgoorlie, recording 103mm in just 12 hours since 9pm last
night.
By 11am today Laverton had recorded 140mm since 9am yesterday.
The massive low pressure system associated with the now formed Tropical
cyclone has dumped heavy rain on the Pilbara for the past 48 hours with Shark
Bay receiving 42mm; Mardie 38mm; and Karratha 27mm to 9am today.
The mass of moist tropical air dominating the northern 1/2 of the state has
resulted in flood warnings for the following regions: Goldfields; the De Grey,
Gascoyne and Murchison River catchments; Pilbara Coastal streams and N and W
Kimberley.
Heavy rain hits Goldfields
Thunderstorms brought heavy falls to inland areas of the northern Goldfields
and eastern Wheatbelt with Laverton recording 110mm to 9am today; Yeelirrie
57mm; Leonora 53mm and Kalgoorlie getting 16mm, mostly in a downpour around
midday yesterday.
Southern Cross had 57mm; Merredin 30mm and Gingin, 80km N of Perth, got 39mm
late yesterday.
A creek on the outskirts of Laverton has broken its banks and isolated the
small mining town, which is now totally cut-off by road.
Local FESA spokesman Trevor Tasker said a mining camp with about 100 workers
had been evacuated and police had managed to evacuate a remote Aboriginal
community before the floods hit, but some people were stuck in their vehicles
between rising floodwaters.
Mr Tasker said preparations were now underway to cope with an expected deluge
of between 75-150mm which is forecast to hit the northern Goldfields in the
next 24 hours.
Crescent Gold was forced to move 100 workers from its Laverton operation.
Mine managing director Mark Tory said it was not clear how long workers will
stay off site, with bad weather forecast to continue until Sun, but they will
not return until their safety is assured.
"The safety of our employees and contractors is our primary concern at the
moment," he said
Flood Warning for Goldfields
At 8.25am the Bureau renewed its flood warning for the northern Goldfields to
Eucla in the south-east.
"For the next 24 hours to 9am Fri, rain areas with isolated thunderstorms and
moderate to heavy falls are forecast for an area from the northern Goldfield
towards Eucla.
"The rainfall associated with the thunderstorms could produce rainfall in
excess of 100mm.
"Local flooding is likely associated with the thunderstorm activity.
"FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises people in the area to prepare to
relocate equipment and livestock early. Put fuel in your vehicle and watch
water levels. Some roads may be impassable, obey road closure signs and do
not drive into water of unknown depth and current."
Flooding closes Karijini National Park
On Wed, the Department of Environment and Conservation advises that all gravel
roads and all gorges are closed to the public in Karijini National Park, due
to heavy rainfall.
Access to Dales Campground, Circular Pool day use and lookout area and
Fortescue Falls lookout remains open, but visitors are advised to be aware of
localised flooding in the area.
Perth had a maximum of 39C yesterday and an overnight minimum of 21.8C this
morning.
[96 more news items]
---
So you really, really believe that our universe just came about by
sheer chance? I prersonally, find that extremely hard to accept.
-- BO...@27-32-240-172.static.tpgi.com.au [86 nyms and counting], 11 Jan 2011 15:02 +1100
Mr Robot
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Exmouth to Coral Bay.
17 Feb, 2011 8:05PM AWST
ABC News
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Onslow to Exmouth and Coral
Bay to Overlander, including Carnarvon and Denham.
FESA have issued a BLUE ALERT for people in or near Exmouth and Coral Bay.
At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category 2 was estimated to be 460 km
northwest of Exmouth and 690 km N northwest of Carnarvon and was moving S at 6
km per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Dianne is located well off the northwest coast and has
started to drift slowly southwards.
Dianne is expected to continue moving southwards during Fri and Sat, and will
most likely remain well offshore from the WA coast.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres
per hour may develop in coastal areas between Exmouth and Coral Bay during Sat
morning, extending S to Overlander Roadhouse during Sat afternoon and evening.
Gales may also extend E to Onslow on Sat afternoon if the cyclone moves along
a southeastwards track.
The destructive core of Dianne is not likely to affect the WA mainland.
Tides along the entire W coast are likely to exceed the high water mark over
the next few days, with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible between
Onslow and Shark Bay (Denham).
A Flood Warning is current for the Gascoyne, Murchison and Greenough Rivers
and a Flood Watch is current for the Irwin River.
Flooding is also expected in other areas of Western Australia.
Please refer to the full list of Flood Watches and Warnings at
www.bom.gov.au/wa.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near Exmouth and Coral Bay need to prepare for
cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including 1st aid kit, torch,
portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Other communities between Onslow and Overlander Roadhouse, including Carnarvon
and Denham should listen for the next advice.
For more cyclone advice visit FESA
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at
www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone.
MYREF: 20110218113401 msg2011021827296
[105 more news items]
Mr Robot
Jessica Marszalek
Feb 17, 2011
SMH/AAP
A plan to build cyclone shelters from Bundaberg to the far N is an "idiotic
proposition", Queensland Public Works Minister Robert Schwarten says.
The state government has come under pressure following category 5 Cyclone
Yasi for not having built enough cyclone shelters despite promising them in
communities from Bundaberg to Cooktown.
Four have been completed since former premier Peter Beattie made the promise
after category 4 Cyclone Larry ravaged Innisfail in 2006.
A 5th will open in April.
Mr Schwarten told parliament on Wed the strategy might be reconsidered
post-Yasi and proposed buildings that withstood the storm, like school halls
and shopping centres, be upgraded to cyclone shelters.
This would stop the squandering of money on shelters that may never be needed,
he said.
On Thu, he took it further, alleging it was the opposition's "idiotic
proposition" to build a series of cyclone shelters.
However, the opposition said it does not have a cyclone shelter policy, and
the idea has always been the government's.
Mr Schwarten said for $500 per square metre, buildings could be strengthened
and cyclone-proofed instead.
"Instead of just going around and saying we're going to build evacuation
centres from Bundaberg through to the Torres Strait - what an idiotic
proposition that is - with money that we don't have," he said.
He said he wasn't going to "go around and make idle promises to people that
we're going to build evacuation centres in places where we don't have the
money to build it".
" ... The reality is that all of the buildings that have survived there prove
that they are cyclone-proof."
However, he said he was delivering his view only, not Premier Anna Bligh's.
The government has said cyclone shelters must be multi-purpose buildings, like
school halls and community centres, so the public's money is not wasted on
buildings that may never be needed.
Ms Bligh said earlier this m the government's commitment was on track, but
would take time and money.
"It's something we will be looking at whenever we're in a position,
financially, and when the community needs a facility that can be operated as a
cyclone shelter and as another building," Ms Bligh said on Jan 7.
" ... What we have is a program at a state government level to roll out these
shelters in an affordable way at every possible chance."
MYREF: 20110218113506 msg2011021826748
[104 more news items]
---
Check the dates and times when Bozo posts. It's a 5 day Monday-Friday 8
hour working week.
-- Tom P, 26 Nov 2008
Mr Robot
Brian Latham
Feb 17 2011
Bloomberg
Tropical cyclone Bingiza could lead to further flooding in Madagascar and
Mozambique where heavy rains have left soils saturated and people without
homes, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs.
Between 4k and 9,600 households, equivalent to as many as 48k people, are
likely to be affected by flooding in the Zambezi river valley in Mozambique,
OCHA, as the organization is known, said in an e-mailed statement today.
Flooding in southern Africa has affected S Africa, Mozambique, Madagascar,
Zimbabwe, Namibia and Angola during the last eight weeks. Crop damage in S
Africa, the continent's largest economy, could cost the nation more than $282
mn after grape farms were submerged, while OCHA estimates that almost 1% of
Mozambique's crops have been destroyed by rising water.
Floods in Lesotho, a mountainous, land-locked country surrounded by South
Africa, lost at least 672 homes and more than 4,700 livestock to floods that
led to outbreaks of diarrhea and dysentery in both humans and animal herds,
OCHA said.
In Angola, floods have displaced 34,380 people and killed 22, the UN
organization said. "Those made homeless have been placed at shelter camps,
staying in tents provided by the government," it said.
MYREF: 20110218190001 msg2011021810845
[106 more news items]
---
[Irony 101:]
[By my count BONZO has called people whacko 137 times; fool 26; idiot 22 times;
moron 14 times; twit 17 times in just the past 4 wks. There is a
10+-year history, however].
Warmist Abuse Shows They're Losing
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 16 Feb 2011 17:15 +1100
Mr Robot
Ex-tropical cyclone Carlos is tracking across the top end.
WA Today/AAP
Feb 19, 2011
Western Australian authorities warned of a possible cyclone in the N of
the state, the latest bout of severe weather to hammer the coast.
A tropical low is developing and a cyclone may hit the Kimberley region
between Mitchell Plateau and Bidyadanga, the Fire & Emergency Services
Authority of Western Australia said on its website today.
The area is on the northwest coast of Australia near the border with the
Northern Territory.
"Prepare your home inside and out for dangerous weather," the authority said.
"Although there is no immediate danger, you need to be aware and keep up to date
."
A La Nina event typically increases the number of cyclones between Nov and
April, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which was threatening the Western Australian coast
yesterday, is about 620km W of the coastal town of Exmouth as of 8am today and
is moving away from the mainland, the bureau said.
Woodside Petroleum's Enfield oil field off Australia's northwest coast remains
shut, Laura Hammer, a spokeswoman for the Perth, Western Australia-based
company, said by phone today.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is over land near the Northern Territory and
Western Australian border, about 105km E of Wyndham as of 9.30am local time,
the bureau said.
The weather system is expected to move W or southwest across the Kimberley,
and re-intensify into a cyclone off the coast late tomorrow or on Feb 21, if
it moves in a more westerly direction than expected, the bureau said.
MYREF: 20110219223001 msg2011021918716
[109 more news items]
---
Of course "global temperature are rising" [...]
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100
Mr Robot
at about 18:00 GMT on 20 Feb.
[Trends in Pacific storms <http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/cyclone.html> ].
Trust.org
18 Feb 2011
Tropical storm Seventeen is forecast to strike Vanuatu as a tropical cyclone
at about 18:00 GMT on 20 Feb. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint
Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 18.1
S,169.8 E. Seventeen is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to
the region of around 129 kph (80 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be
considerably higher.
According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and
flooding from a storm of Seventeen's strength (category 1)at landfall includes:
* Storm surge generally 1.2-1.5 metres (4-5 feet) above normal.
* No real damage to building structures.
* Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees.
* Some damage to poorly constructed signs.
* Some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to
make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the
region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact
their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.
This alert is provided by TropicalStorm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by
Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance,Crawford & Company and University College London
(UCL). TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.
MYREF: 20110219230002 msg2011021929554
[108 more news items]
---
This ***global warming**** appears to be HIGHLY LOCALISED!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 5 Feb 2011 21:59 +1100
Of course "global temperature are rising", we're emerging from an ICE AGE!!
Mr Robot
Paradise Tabucala, Watisoni Butabua
Feb 20 2011
Tropical Cyclone Atu which is currently moving away from the Fiji group, is
expected to develop into a hurricane within the next 6-12 hours however poses
no direct threat to the group.
The Nadi Weather Office revealed that at the moment, the cyclone which was a
category 1 in the morning has gathered momentum and is now category 2 and is
expected to develop further into a hurricane.
The duty forecaster revealed that Tropical Cyclone Atu since mid day today is
located at 16.8 decimal S 169.2 decimals east, which is about 990 km to the W
of Suva or about 880km W of Nadi.
It is a slow moving system towards the far W of the group
On its forecasted track, tropical Cyclone Atu is moving at 8 knots or 15 km
per hour and is affecting Vanuatu and then is projected to affect New
Caledonia as it moves South.
While there will be no direct threat on the Fiji Group as a result of Tropical
Cyclone Atu, the Weather office is calling for residents in the W and outer
lying Islands to brace themselves for heavy rain today.
Meanwhile, an active trough of low pressure which is lying over the group
remains slow moving over the western and southern parts of Fiji, which is
bringing a lot of rain.
The Weather office said as a result, there will be periods of rain, heavy at
times with squally thunderstorms for most parts of most parts of Viti Levu
which will result in flooding of low lying areas. Rain is expected to ease
over the northern part of the group.
Meanwhile, police will be closely monitoring the weather situation in the
flood affected areas and will be out to assist those in need.
Spokesman Inspector Atunaisa Sokomuri said though the reports show that flood
waters have started to recede in some areas, they are on standby especially as
more rain is expected.
Sokomuri has called on parents and guardians to take extra care as some in the
past take rainy weather as a chance to have a swim in flooded rivers and
creeks.
MYREF: 20110220230002 msg2011022011808
[103 more news items]
Mr Robot
A tropical cyclone that swept through Madagascar has left at least 15 people
dead and 20 000 others homeless.
Reuters/Sapa/AFP
Feb 21 2011 at 06:23pm
A tropical cyclone that swept through Madagascar last wk has left at least 15
people dead and 20 000 others homeless, the disaster management department
said on Mon.
Cyclone Bingiza hit the Indian Ocean island's eastern coast Mon and drove
through the northern and southern regions and before drifting away on Sat.
A total of 85 000 people were affected by the cyclone that destroyed homes and
1000s of acres of rice fields, the National Disaster and Risk Management
Bureau said.
"We are faced with an affected population without food reserves. There will
certainly be huge losses in harvest in May, the main harvesting season in the
y in the south-eastern region," said Didier Young, of the relief group CARE.
Bingiza was the 1st cyclone to hit Madagascar in the cyclone season that runs
from Nov to April.
In March 2010, tropical storm Hubert killed at least 83 people and affected a
total of 187 000.
MYREF: 20110222050002 msg2011022216324
[106 more news items]
---
[On knowing your constituents:]
I always thought faremers were a gullible bunch!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 9 Feb 2011 12:09 +1100
Mr Robot
Asia-Pacific News
Feb 21, 2011, 13:11 GMT
Wellington - Almost 400 people were evacuated from their homes in the Pacific
island nation of Vanuatu as Cyclone Atu brought gale force winds and heavy
rain to the region, reports said Mon.
National Disaster Management officials told Radio New Zealand's international
service that 381 people had been evacuated from low-lying areas near Vanuatu's
capital Port Vila as the cyclone moved southwards towards Tafea province.
Tafea was badly battered by last month's Cyclone Vania and there are fears the
latest storm may worsen food shortages there.
Atu was predicted to bring hurricane-strength winds of 165 km per hour
with gusts of up 235 km an hour.
MYREF: 20110222053001 msg2011022227194
[105 more news items]
---
What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100
Mr Robot
[In other news 65 people are confirmed dead from a 6.4 mag quake that hit
Christchurch at around midday local time].
Peter de Graaf
Northern Advocate
22nd Feb 2011
Forget Vania and Wilma. Now it's Atu which is beating a path towards
Northland, hell-bent on sowing havoc.
The good news, however, is that the latest cyclone to emerge from the tropical
Pacific is likely to brush past Northland's E coast.
The only danger - as long as Atu keeps to its predicted path - is to boaties,
who will need to be wary of large swells off the E coast, when the cyclone
makes itself felt later this week.
MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said Atu formed on Sat and was
yesterday heading S near Vanuatu.
It was expected to peel off to the southeast and bring 25-knot winds and
swells of up to 4m to Northland late tomorrow or on Thu, but the rain and
worst of the wind would bypass the land.
Boaties should avoid sailing towards the Kermadecs on Thu, he said.
Fortunately, Atu had started in a different area and was on a different path
to Cyclone Wilma, which inflicted serious damage on parts of the Mid N over
Anniversary Weekend.
WeatherWatch analyst Philip Duncan said sea temperatures and atmospheric
conditions were right for Atu, like Wilma, to grow from its current Category 2
to a Category 4 storm.
The chance of Atu hitting Northland directly was only 20% but a near miss
could still have some impact.
The greatest threat was from raised sea levels, with large swells likely to
cause coastal erosion in exposed areas.
Cyclone Wilma dumped up to 280mm of rain in parts of the Far N with the
floodwaters leaving a trail of destruction along the Waitangi River between
Puketona and Haruru Falls, and through Moerewa and Kawakawa.
Roads in the Mid N were cut for up to 2 days, while Kawakawa's bowling club
and vintage railway are likely to be out of action for months.
MYREF: 20110222174539 msg201102229494
[106 more news items]
---
Scientists are always changing their story and as a Conservative, I
have no tolerance for ambiguity.
It proves that all science is lies and the only thing we can trust is
right wing rhetoric.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 14 Jan 2011 14:46 +1100
Mr Robot
Amy Pyett
Sydney, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Australia's Port Hedland, one of the world's
biggest iron ore terminals, has suspended operations, as Tropical Cyclone
Carlos continues to build and sweep along the country's resource rich N W coast.
Cyclones are a normal fixture of an Australian summer but the national weather
bureau has indicated that above-average cyclone activity is to be expected
this season.
Port Hedland, the country's biggest iron ore export terminal, suspended
operations on Mon evening with the approach of Tropical Cyclone Carlos, a
category 2 storm, which is forecast to move westward and intensify in the
coming days and generate winds of up to around 150 kph.
A spokesperson for the Port Authority, told Reuters the harbour master would
wait until the danger had passed and assess the situation before reopening the
port to shipping.
Australia's northwest coast is also home to some of the country's biggest oil
and gas operations, with several of them suspending operations and battening
down as the cyclone crosses through the area.
Australia's Woodside Petroleum halted production at its Cossack Pioneer
floating, production, storage and offloading unit on the N W Shelf due to
Tropical Cyclone Carlos the company said on Mon.
Apache Corp also halted production at its Stag and Van Gogh oil fields off the
coast of Western Australia on Mon.
Chevron shut oil and gas production at Barrow and Thevenard Island facilities
on Mon and non-essential workers were evacuated from the facilities.
"Production is being shut in and wells secured," Chevron spokesman Guy Houston
said.
MYREF: 20110222203002 msg2011022216243
[103 more news items]
---
So you really, really believe that our universe just came about by
sheer chance? I prersonally, find that extremely hard to accept.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 11 Jan 2011 15:02 +1100
Mr Robot
MWC News
Tue, 22 Feb 2011 08:22
The Pacific islands of Vanuatu are currently being pummelled by a severe
tropical cyclone.
Tropical cyclone Atu is the equivalent of a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of up to 185kph and gusts of over
200kph.
The storm is expected to strengthen further, perhaps becoming the equivalent
of a category 4 - the second strongest on the scale.
Fortunately, the centre of the storm - where the worst of the winds are - is
expected to stay offshore, but it's very close to Vanuatu, an island nation
about 1,750km northeast of Australia.
Though the tiny islands may not be directly under the eye of the storm, they
are still taking quite a battering. The Vanuatu Meteorological Service is
warning of the potential of winds gusting at speeds exceeding 200kph.
Atu is moving very slowly, at less than 10kph - and this is bad news, as it
will take longer for the storm to clear the chain of 82 islands, and their
220k residents will have to endure the flooding and strong winds for longer
than is the case for most tropical storms.
And it's not only the Vanuatu islands that are affected. The nearby island
nations of New Caledonia, Fiji and the Solomon Islands are also seeing strong
winds and heavy rain.
In the 24 hours up to 6:00 GMT on Mon, the city of Santa Cruz on the Solomon
Islands recorded a staggering 133mm rain - more than a 3rd normally expected
for the entire m of Feb, which falls in the middle of the rainy season.
Flooding is a real danger on these Pacific islands, but as the majority are
volcanic, their mountainous nature also leaves them vulnerable to mudslides
and landslides.
The path of the storm should eventually take it away to the southeast, so it
should avoid making direct landfall before dissipating over the cooler waters
of the S pacific later in the week.
MYREF: 20110223053001 msg2011022327403
[106 more news items]
---
Mr Robot
Voxy
23 Feb, 2011 - 14:54
Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu is roaring into New Zealand waters today packing
sustained winds of almost 170km/h and gusts to 205km/h.
The 1st outer bands of the cyclone are now reaching the upper N Island as
high cloud but the centre of the low remains about 900kms to the N E of Northlan
d.
The powerful category 4 cyclone has taken a miraculous journey. Roaring into
life on Sat and within 48 hours exploding into a category 4 storm, the cyclone
has so far missed all the main popular islands, despite tracking very near them.
As if trying to avoid problems for populated nations Atu is weaving around the
main islands and will do so around the N Island over the next 48 hours as it
quite clearly curves further E away from land, before heading more southerly
after clearing E Cape.
"It's as if Atu knows we are there and doesn't want to cause us more problems"
says head weather analyst Philip Duncan, who has been tracking the storm since
it 1st started.
He says Atu is more powerful than Wilma, which hit Northland at Auckland
Anniversary Weekend in late Jan. "Atu is stronger and bigger than Wilma was at
this point. It's definitely fair to say that New Zealand is getting a lucky
escape from this monster cyclone as it brushes by several 100 km to the east".
Mr Duncan says if Atu had tracked further S the upper N Island would have been
facing a "devastating" tropical cyclone.
The models, which WeatherWatch.co.nz use, have been picking this cyclone since
Mon of last wk with the predicted track of the storm hardly moving over that tim
e.
Big seas are still predicted, with Weathermap.co.nz indicating the entire
eastern coastline from Northland to Bay of Plenty, and then E Cape to
Hawkes Bay, will see big seas and dangerous rips over Thu and Fri especially.
There are currently King Tides which may also increase the chance of coastal
erosion and some minor coastal flooding, says WeatherWatch.co.nz.
Atu's air pressure remains around 940hPa.
MYREF: 20110223180001 msg2011022310748
[103 more news items]
---
[Yasi is "the worst cyclone" to hit Qld:]
CORRECTION: The worst cyclone in history was the cat 5 Mahina in 1899.
[Bzzt! Thank you, come again!]
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 3 Feb 2011 15:12 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
Cameron Chai
23/2/2011
A cyclone of the N W mining coast of Australia has brought damage to homes and
closure to offshore oil rigs. Ports handling iron ore exports have also been
forced to shut down as per officials. The tropical cyclone Carlos measured 2
on a 5 point scale.
Port Hedland is the largest iron ore terminal in the country and it was forced
to close following the Cyclone across the Pilbara coast. The bad weather has
affected most major iron ore projects in the Pilbara as rail and roads were
also forced to close.
Towns like Dampier and Karratha have been on red alert since a freak storm ran
through the towns and damaged houses. In Karratha about 150 people stayed in
an evacuation shelter for the night. Heavy rains and winds gusting in excess
of 140 km were experienced in the area.
The Rio Tinto spokesperson Gervase Greene said that the company has had to
suspend coastal operations thanks to the bad weather. Hundreds of mine workers
have been asked to stay at home. They were making sure that employees knew
what was happening and that they were in a safe place.
Woodside Petroleum has stopped operations on its Enfield oilfield and Cossack
Pioneer floating facility. The Vincent oilfield was already shut due to its
maintenance schedule. Chief Executive Don Voelte said that the Pluto project
near Karratha which should have been completed by August may be delayed.
Apache Corporation has stopped production at Stag and Van Gogh fields in
Western Australia. The Varanus Island is still operational for the
company. Many smaller companies operating in the area have also been forced to
stop production and wait for the weather to improve. With Carlos in its 6th
day and Dianna moving further down the coast it is not clear when this will be
possible.
MYREF: 20110226201224 msg2011022630018
[120 more news items]
---
[A]ll science is lies and the only thing we can trust is right wing rhetoric.
Mr Posting Robot
[And, now, for a word from our sponsor...]
Cyclones and earthquakes of 2011 have caused the world leading poly tarps
provider to take action.
PR
2011-02-23
The cyclone and earthquake of the Australia and New Zealand area has prompted
the world leading tarps supplier Tarps Plus to take action.
The tarp company has increased it's poly tarps and canvas tarps inventory
by 30%. This is also due to the 2011 US hurricane forecast.
It is hard for many of us to imagine what it would be like to lose a home in a
natural disaster like a hurricane, tornado, earthquake, volcanic eruption, or
tsunami. For those that have been unfortunate enough to experience the type of
devastation that has occurred recently in Haiti, Chile, the Philippines, and
Indonesia, the prospect of not having a shelter over one's head is distressing
to say the least. The canvas tarps and poly tarps have provided some
relief for those in desperate need of someplace to hide from the elements and
feel like they have someplace to call home.
After the recent Tsunami in Indonesia, 1000s of people were left without
shelter and relentlessly exposed to the ravages of the rain, the wind, and the
sun. And while classic tarps provide decent shelter, they can seem slightly
claustrophobic since they don't allow any light or air to enter and circulate
through the makeshift shelter. The tarps design allows for the shelter to
breath, an important quality in a place like Indonesia where the heat and
humidity can be oppressive.
The poly tarp design also allows for privacy without sacrificing
comfort. Privacy can be a much appreciated luxury after you lose your home and
are cast into the streets or beaches with 100s if not 1000s of other victims.
The poly tarpaulin technology is also very affordable, a fact tat makes it an
attractive option for those relief agencies who have to provide these shelter
making materials in bulk. Canopy tents and other types of shelters often
constructed using canvas tarp is a staple of relief organizations like the
Red Cross and the UN.
So it is no wonder that when disaster strikes on the form of an earthquake, a
tsunami, or a volcanic eruption--all of which have occurred this year--that we
see a spike in demand for vinyl mesh tarps.
They are cheap, effective, and durable, and they go a long way in providing
relief for the multitudes who have been displaced or otherwise put out of
hearth and home. The tarp company also plans to make a special hurricane
relief tarp kit for the 2011 hurricane season.
MYREF: 20110226201412 msg2011022618729
[119 more news items]
---
[Weather is responsible for climate change:]
And that's the only reason for the heat!
Strong northeast winds being superheated desert air from the inland to the
the southern capitals.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 31 Jan 2011 13:42 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
Pip Doyle
WA Today
Feb 27, 2011 - 11:28AM
The Kimberley and Pilbara are again told to prepare for a possible cyclone,
with a tropical low developing.
The Fire and Emergency Services Authority has advised that those living or
travelling through the coastal areas between Cape Leveque in the Kimberley and
Port Hedland in the Pilbara need to be aware and keep up to date.
This includes people in the Dampier Peninsular communities, Broome,
Bidyadanga, Wallal, Sandfire, Pardoo and DeGrey.
There is no threat to lives or homes and no immediate danger, but FESA advises
residents to be vigilant.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the tropical low was estimated to be 330
kilometres NW of Broome and 225 km N of Derby at 8am.
It is moving SE at 3 km per hour.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone by late tomorrow if it moves
towards the SW and remains over water.
Gale winds are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however
gales could develop by late tomorrow or early Tue between Cape Leveque and
Port Hedland, if the low tracks to the south-west.
Heavy rainfall is expected on the Dampier Peninsula N of Broome today.
On Mon and Tue, heavy rainfall is likely E and SE of Port Hedland, including
Telfer and parts of the De Grey catchment.
Community alerts will be issued by FESA if the cyclone comes closer.
Meanwhile, people in the Kimberley should continue to prepare for possible
local flooding and rising water in local rivers and streams.
The Bureau of Meteorology advises a flood watch has been issued for the
Kimberley at 10.18am.
A tropical low developing nearby is expected to bring further heavy rainfall
totals today and tomorrow.
In the Fitzroy River catchment above Dimond Gorge, Lennard River catchment and
Dunham River in the eastern Kimberley, rainfall of 20mm to 50mm with isolated
heavier falls to 75mm have been reported for the 24 hour period to 9am Sun.
Heavy rainfall is expected on the Dampier Peninsula N of Broome during Sun.
Stream rises with minor flooding are likely in Fitzroy River catchment
above Dimond Gorge, and the Dunham and Lennard River catchments.
IMPORTANT NUMBERS:
* For SES assistance call 132 500.
* In a life threatening situation call 000.
* For weather information visit www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210.
* To keep up to date, call FESA on 1300 657 209, or visit www.fesa.wa.gov.au
* For the latest flood information visit www.bom.gov.au/wa/flood or call 1300
659 213.
* Current river levels are available from Department of Water at
www.water.wa.gov.au
MYREF: 20110227160001 msg2011022731550
[137 more news items]
---
[It's not "land" warming -- it's just "ocean" warming!]
QUOTE: Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has
occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather
than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases over land.
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 14 Dec 2010 10:35 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
ABC News
March 31, 2011 10:07:00
A cyclone watch remains in place for Darwin and parts of the Top End.
The Bureau of Meteorology says areas under the cyclone watch include coastal
communities between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, as well as Darwin.
Early today, a tropical low that is expected to become a cyclone by Fri was 30
km NE of Snake Bay and 215 km north-northeast of Darwin.
The bureau says the low is moving W at 5 km per hour.
"Gales may develop during Fri about the Tiwi islands, and may extend to the
coast later on Fri or early on Sat between Cape Hotham and Port Keats,
including Darwin, if the tropical low takes a more SW track," the
bureau said.
Residents in affected areas have been advised to put together emergency kits,
clear yards and balconies and commence home shelter preparations.
MYREF: 20110331130002 msg2011033112881
[126 more news items]
---
[I am Luddite!]
You whackos just keep changing your "predictions" to suit reality!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 16 Feb 2011 15:57 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
Phoebe Wearne
The W Australian
April 2, 2011, 11:51 am
A cyclone warning has been issued to coastal communities in the northern
Kimberley, which are being warned to prepare for dangerous weather and
possible widespread flooding.
Areas from Kalumburu to Kuri Bay, including Mitchell Plateau, are on blue
alert as a tropical low, estimated to be 135km NE of Kalumburu at 9.30am and
moving SW at 15km/h, approaches the coastline.
The tropical low was expected to develop into a tropical cyclone near the
Kimberley coast later today, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
The bureau said gales with gusts up to 110km/h are expected to develop between
Wyndham and Kuri Bay and may extend further W to Cape Leveque on Sun.
Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding in the northern Kimberly region over
the weekend.
Rainfall totals of 200mm with isolated heavier falls are expected,
particularly in the Kalumburu area, in the next 2 days.
Stream rises and local flooding are likely in the Pentecost, Drysdale and King
Edward River catchments on Sun.
There is no expected threat to lives or homes at this stage, according to
emergency services authorities.
MYREF: 20110402173002 msg201104025662
[127 more news items]
---
[Assault on Vostok icecores:]
YOU are the one presenting the "evidence." Your evidence MUST be
performed using proven standards, not untested guesswork.
-- Michael Dobony <sur...@stopassaultnow.net>, 24 Feb 2011 19:49 -0600
Mr Posting Robot
[For historical trends in Pacific cyclones see
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/cyclone.html> ].
Evan Schwarten
AAP
April 4, 2011 - 5:09PM
Australia will see fewer cyclones in the future as a result of climate change
but the outlook is increasingly bad for the Great Barrier Reef.
Scientists are meeting in Cairns this wk to discuss the latest developments in
climate science at the biennial CSIRO Greenhouse 2011 conference.
Among the new research is some relatively good news - the expected rise in
global temperature is expected to result in a drop in the number of cyclones
affecting Australia each year.
University of Melbourne Meteorologist Associate Professor Kevin Walsh said his
research into changes in tropical cyclones predicted a 20% drop in the number
of cyclones affecting Australia by 2100.
He said the reduction would be more or less uniform but there would also be a
corresponding increase of about five% in the strength of some cyclones.
"Overall there appears to be fewer cyclones but the most intense ones appear
to be getting more intense," he told reporters.
The research may be seen as a positive in cyclone prone regions such as far N
Queensland which was recently battered by Cyclone Yasi.
However, many scientists presented a bleak outlook for the future - especially
regarding the Great Barrier Reef.
University of Queensland climate change researcher Professor Ove Hoegh-Gulberg
said rising sea temperatures and the acidisation of oceans due to increasing
carbon levels would kill the reef if there wasn't a dramatic drop in emissions
within the next decade.
"We are going to get into a situation where reefs will no longer be able to
sustain themselves," he told the conference.
"If we don't achieve those lower levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and have no
more than a two-degree rise in sea temperature we will not have the Great
Barrier Reef to crow about."
Professor Hoegh-Gulberg said hopes that coral reefs may migrate S to cooler
waters as temperatures rise or could evolve to suit the changing conditions
were overly optimistic.
He said coral was a slow evolving species and reefs would need to migrate S at
a rate of about 15 km an hour to survive - where a migration rate of one km a
century was more realistic.
MYREF: 20110404200001 msg201104047874
[129 more news items]
---
The "Holy Grail": Climate Sensitivity Figuring out how much past
warming is due to mankind, and how much more we can expect in the
future, depends upon something called "climate sensitivity". This is
the temperature response of the Earth to a given amount of `radiative
forcing', of which there are two kinds: a change in either the amount
of sunlight absorbed by the Earth, or in the infrared energy the Earth
emits to outer space.
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming", 2008
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[usual coal lobby stuff]
Conditions in Atlantic ripe for big 2011 hurricane season, US says
2011 will be another above-average y for Atlantic hurricanes, says the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Plan your evacuation
strategy now, warns FEMA.
[For trends in Atlantic hurricanes see
<http://www.kymhorsell.com/graphs/hurr.html> ].
Pete Spotts
CSMonitor
May 19, 2011
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, looks to be another
above-average year, federal forecasters say, adding that residents along the
Gulf and E Coast should make sure now that they know what to do if ordered to
evacuate.
In an outlook released May 19, forecasters at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center are calling for a 70%
chance of 12 to 18 storms with tropical-storm-force winds or higher.
Of these storms, which would receive names ranging from Arlene to Sean, 6 to
10 are expected to grow into hurricanes. 3 to 6 of these are likely to become
major hurricanes, with winds in excess of 111 miles an hour.
The outlook brackets a similar forecast from Colorado State University's
Tropical Meteorology Project.
In April, the most recent outlook, Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, who
pioneered seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic, called for 16 named
storms, of which 9 are expected to become hurricanes. Of those nine, 5 are
expected to become major hurricanes.
In a typical season, the Atlantic basin might see 11 named storms, six
hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
Last year, conditions in the Atlantic and Caribbean spawned 19 named storms,
the third-highest number on record, according to Jane Lubchenco, who heads
NOAA. Twelve of those storms became hurricanes, the second-highest number of
hurricane ever recorded in one season.
"The US was lucky last year," she said during a May 19 press
briefing. Considering the number and severity of the storms, the US emerged
with remarkably little damage.
Hurricane Earl, which for a time strengthened to a category 4 storm, the
second-highest category, flirted with the US E Coast from N Carolina up to
Maine. Hurricane Bonnie spun close to the ongoing efforts to control the
Deepwater Horizon blowout, in the Gulf of Mexico near Louisiana.
But in the end, the US Gulf and E Coasts were spared significant damage from a
named storm - unlike countries in the Caribbean and along the E Coast of
Mexico and Central America.
<http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=us%2F0_0_s_16_0_t&bvm=grid&topic=blend
ed&usg=AFQjCNFZQa5KOMmej4eI8PFgjiztnBx1IQ&did=84e725859e84b868&sig2=zv0Iq-6QPrIW
xSW1Hs3-Xg&cid=8797699452926&ei=MHzVTdGGA8n1lAW_kKMM&rt=HOMEPAGE&vm=STANDARD&url
=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.csmonitor.com%2FUSA%2F2011%2F0519%2FConditions-in-Atlantic-rip
e-for-big-2011-hurricane-season-US-says>
MYREF: 20110520070001 msg2011052017665
[199 more news items]
---
>Why is it relevant that the 'chief scientist' is a woman?
Because women are easier prey for scams such as The Great Global Warming Hoax!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [86 nyms and counting], 7 Feb 2011 11:28 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
1st Tropical Storm of the Season Forms in Pacific
AP/Fox News [Fair and Balanced!]
June 07, 2011
MIAMI -- Forecasters say Tropical Storm Adrian has formed far out in
the Eastern Pacific, making it the 1st named storm of the 2011
hurricane season.
No coastal watches or warnings have been issued. Maximum winds around
the center of the storm late Tue were about 45 mph. Forecasters say
the storm is likely to strengthen.
The center of the storm is about 355 miles S of Acapulco, Mexico.
It is barely moving west-northwest direction. That is expected to
continue for the next couple of days.
MYREF: 20110609193002 msg2011060917661
[223 more news items]
---
[In the search for credible quotes, "skeptics" can unknowingly promote
the views of scientists that actually accept AGW].
Well said Freeman!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 28 Feb 2011 16:35 +1100
Mr Posting Robot
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[coal lobby spin]
Season's First Named Storm Makes Landfall
Tropical Storm Arlene brings heavy rains, threat of mudslides to Mexico.
Insurance Networking News
June 30, 2011
The 1st storm of what is expected to be an active hurricane season has reached
land, as Tropical Storm Arlene slammed into Cabo Rojo, Mexico, around 60 miles
(100 km) S of Tampico.
"Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected over the Mexican states
of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and eastern San Luis Potosi," Oakland, Calif.-based
catastrophe modeling EQECAT INC. stated in a release. "Isolated rainfall
amounts of up to 15 inches are possible over mountainous terrain, with the
potential for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. A storm surge may
raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above the normal tide along the immediate
coast near and to the N of where the center makes landfall."
Newark, Calif.-based Risk Management Solutions, Inc. notes that the outer
bands of the system are expected to affect the US, with rainfall forecast for
the Rio Grande Valley, Texas. Indeed, the US National Weather Service in
Brownsville, Texas, has issued a coastal flooding advisory, a high surf
advisory and a rip current alert for the lower Texas coast, which are expected
to remain in place through Fri, July 1.
"Arlene strengthened before landfall to a moderate tropical storm. It is
likely that had it remained over water it would have become the first
hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season," said Margaret Joseph, catastrophe
response analyst at RMS.
MYREF: 20110707123001 msg201107073025
[222 more news items]
---
Of course "global temperature are rising", we're emerging from an ICE AGE!!
-- BONZO@27-32-240-172 [100 nyms and counting], 8 Feb 2011 12:22 +1100
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[Aussie coal lobby spin]
Tropical Storm Katia Continues Record-Breaking 2011 Weather
International Business Times
September 2, 2011 1:32 PM EDT
Tropical storm Katia has officially been christened a hurricane, triggering a
state of emergency in Louisiana and prompting warnings of powerful winds and
torrential rain.
In other words, business as usual for 2011.
PHOTO: Residents use a boat to examine flooding in the town of Totowa, New
Jersey August 30, 2011.
New Jersey and Vermont continue to struggle with their worst flooding in
decades on Tue, 2 days after Hurricane Irene slammed an already soaked US
Northeast with torrential rain, dragging away homes and submerging
neighborhoods underwater.
Tropical Storm Lee Path: Mississippi Declares State of Emergency; New
Orleans Faces Significant Flooding Threat
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/207814/20110902/tropical-storm-lee-path-mississi
ppi-louisiana-state-of-emergency-new-orleans-flooding-threat-hurrica.htm
New Orleans, Gulf Coast Warned: Gulf Storm Posing Major Threat Labor Day Weekend
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/207791/20110902/new-orleans-gulf-coast-warned-gu
lf-storm-major-threat-tropical-depression-13-storm-lee-hurricane-lab.htm
Tropical Storm Lee: Oil Resurfacing Near Site of BP Disaster
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/207787/20110902/tropical-storm-lee-gulf-bp.htm
From soaring temperatures to overflowing rivers to an unprecedented spate of
tornadoes, 2011 has been a y of extreme, record-breaking weather. Hurricane
Irene's widespread destruction will almost certainly make it the 10th
billion-dollar disaster of the year, eclipsing the mark set in 2008.
Months before Irene churned up water along the E Coast and inundated
Vermont, heavy rains and a larger than usual melt of snowpack was deluging
towns across the Midwest. The Ohio River, the Mississippi River and the Red
River in N Dakota and Minnesota all surged to near-record levels, leading
the US Army Corps of Engineers to flood 100s of 1000s of acres of farmland as
they opened levees in an effort to redirect water from population centers.
The Mississippi also saw a series of record-setting crests, and April
broke some 1,300 monthly records for rain. The overflowing Souris River
in Minot, N Dakota broke a 130 y old record, overwhelming the city's
levees and forcing evacuations.
"This is the worst flooding that I can remember on the Missouri [River]," Iowa
governor Terry Branstad said in early June, when the swollen Missouri
threatened to submerge parts of Iowa, S Dakota, Nebraska and Missouri.
Other parts of the country were afflicted by brutal droughts that took a
heavy toll on agriculture as crops withered and the price of livestock
feed soared. The floods and the drought combined to produce the most
extreme spring on record for precipitation, with 46% of the country
facing abnormal wet or dry conditions.
A scorching July brought some of the highest temperatures on record, with
Oklahoma, Texas and the S climate region --including Arkansas, Kansas,
Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas -- had their hottest July on
record. July 21 broke or tied the hottest day on record in more than 100
cities. The National National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noted
that the July Climate Extremes Index was the highest ever for the U.S.
And then there were the tornadoes. One wk in April saw 312 tornadoes
across the U.S., including a record-setting 226 in one day that also claimed
334 lives. The April total of 753 tornadoes shattered the previous record
of 543 tornadoes in May 2003.
MYREF: 20110903110003 msg2011090317809
[230 more news items]
---
Mr Posting Robot v2.1
BONZO@27-32-240-172 [numerous nyms] wrote:
>[Aussie coal lobby spin]
Inland News Today [Cal, USA]
Nov 2, 2011
Inland Empire Weather watchers are shifting their attention to the weekend.
The Santa Ana winds made an impressive autumn debut hitting speeds of 68 miles
an hour in some mountain canyons.
Riverside forecaster Rob Krohn says an approaching Pacific storm will put an
end to the sunny, dry warm weather.
It will move through Fri afternoon with up to a half-inch of rain on the S
slopes of the San Bernardino Mountains. The snow level will plummet to 4k feet.
Weekend temperatures throughout Southern California will be up to 15 degrees
below normal. A little warming is ahead the middle of next week.
MYREF: 20111103100002 msg201111039361
[240 more news items]
---
[It's not "land" warming -- it's just "ocean" warming!]
QUOTE: Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has
occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather
than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases over land.