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NASA reschedules end-of-Earth from December 2012 to 2013 "sometime"

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Thad Floryan

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Jun 15, 2010, 3:17:12 PM6/15/10
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" Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with
" unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after
" the Sun wakes 'from a deep slumber' sometime around 2013. In a
" new warning, NASA said the super storm could hit like 'a bolt of
" lightning' and could cause catastrophic consequences for the
" world's health, emergency services, and national security — unless
" precautions are taken. Scientists believe damage could extend to
" everyday items such as home computers, iPods, and sat navs. 'We
" know it is coming but we don't know how bad it is going to be,'
" said Dr. Richard Fisher, the director of NASA's Heliophysics
" division. 'I believe we're on the threshold of a new era in which
" space weather can be as influential in our daily lives as ordinary
" terrestrial weather.' Fisher concludes. 'We take this very
" seriously indeed.

<http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/04jun_swef/>

<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7819201/Nasa-warns-solar-flares-from-huge-space-storm-will-cause-devastation.html>

Davoud

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Jun 15, 2010, 8:16:52 PM6/15/10
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Thad Floryan wrote:

> " Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with
> " unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after
> " the Sun wakes 'from a deep slumber' sometime around 2013. In a
> " new warning, NASA said the super storm could hit like 'a bolt of
> " lightning' and could cause catastrophic consequences for the
> " world's health, emergency services, and national security — unless

> " precautions are taken....

Fantastic. It makes me glad that I kept a couple of Nikon F3's around
that can be used without electronics so that I can get pictures of the
end of the world--so long as the bodies don't melt, that is.

I'm sure that S&T and the various photography forums will have useful
hints on photographing the end of the world.

Barman: Do you really think the world's goin' to end?
Ford: Yes.
Barman: Shouldn't we lie down or put a paper bag over our 'eads or
something?
Ford: Um, if you like.
Barman: Will it help?
Ford: Not at all.
Barman: Last orders, then!

(Film version)

Davoud

--
I agree with almost everything that you have said and almost everything that
you will say in your entire life.

usenet *at* davidillig dawt cawm

Quadibloc

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Jun 15, 2010, 8:49:52 PM6/15/10
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On Jun 15, 1:17 pm, Thad Floryan <t...@thadlabs.com> wrote:
> " Scientists believe damage could extend to
> " everyday items such as home computers, iPods, and sat navs.

I can see trouble for satellites and short-wave communications.

I suppose that home computers could be damaged if the power goes out
in a spiky fashion - and it _has_ happened that space weather has led
to power failures in areas served by hydroelectricity transported over
long distances. Thus, computer users in Montreal and New York might
want to exercise caution.

But even if somehow a giant CME fries all our iPods, it's hardly the
end of the world, even if they _did_ cost good money. Unless first the
electronic toys are destroyed, and _then_ we all go insane and die of
boredom.

John Savard

jwarner1

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Jun 15, 2010, 10:58:33 PM6/15/10
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Thad Floryan wrote:

Oh Good! I can wax the cat and slide him down the refractor one more
time.

Chris L Peterson

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Jun 16, 2010, 12:22:55 AM6/16/10
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On Tue, 15 Jun 2010 17:49:52 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc <jsa...@ecn.ab.ca>
wrote:

>But even if somehow a giant CME fries all our iPods, it's hardly the
>end of the world, even if they _did_ cost good money.

It's nonsense to suggest that solar activity is going to damage small
electronic devices. However, if we actually had solar activity strong
enough to fry iPods, that would be the end of civilization, if not the
world. That kind of energy would essentially destroy all electronics,
everywhere on Earth. Civilization would not survive that.
_________________________________________________

Chris L Peterson
Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com

Davoud

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Jun 16, 2010, 10:02:16 AM6/16/10
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Quadibloc:

>
> >But even if somehow a giant CME fries all our iPods, it's hardly the
> >end of the world, even if they _did_ cost good money.

Chris L Peterson:


> It's nonsense to suggest that solar activity is going to damage small
> electronic devices. However, if we actually had solar activity strong
> enough to fry iPods, that would be the end of civilization, if not the
> world. That kind of energy would essentially destroy all electronics,
> everywhere on Earth. Civilization would not survive that.

It's like the nuclear annihilation scenario. Even if we survived, life
wouldn't be worth living without iPads, iPhones, and iPods.

The Chinese should do well in such a scenario; they're the ones that
would manufacture all the replacements.

I gotta update my cosmic catastrophe insurance. Does the AppleCare
extended warranty cover that?

Martin Brown

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Jun 16, 2010, 10:58:27 AM6/16/10
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On 16/06/2010 05:22, Chris L Peterson wrote:
> On Tue, 15 Jun 2010 17:49:52 -0700 (PDT), Quadibloc<jsa...@ecn.ab.ca>
> wrote:
>
>> But even if somehow a giant CME fries all our iPods, it's hardly the
>> end of the world, even if they _did_ cost good money.
>
> It's nonsense to suggest that solar activity is going to damage small
> electronic devices. However, if we actually had solar activity strong
> enough to fry iPods, that would be the end of civilization, if not the
> world. That kind of energy would essentially destroy all electronics,
> everywhere on Earth. Civilization would not survive that.

Civilisation might not, but some humans probably would at least those
who were inside steel framed buildings at the time. Losing bank machines
and mobile phones would be much more of a problem. The Torygraph are
certainly hamming up the mad max / apocalypse now angle.

I suspect about the worst case would be GPS satellites damaged and
degraded and a loss of satellite live feed bandwidth. Anything that was
sealed inside something as unsophisticated an earthed biscuit tin would
survive serious levels of EMP so if you want your iPod to survive that
is where to put it.

Power grid at very northern latitudes could be knocked out - although
the power companies might chose to shut down and isolate key components
ahead of any incoming CME front hitting.

It is a relatively high risk low probability event and the satellite
monitoring should show any inbound CME in plenty of time for sensitive
systems to be shut down. I seriously doubt if Europes electricity grid
is all that vulnerable either. The magnetic pole is just north of
Canada. It is *extremely* rare to see aurora in the UK at latitude 51N.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tomchivers/100008500/nasas-2013-solar-flare-warning-how-much-do-we-need-to-worry/

Is somewhat more balanced in its reporting although it does detail the
so called Carrington flare of 1859 which would probably do a lot of
damage to long transmission lines and communication satellites today.
The aurora would be pretty impressive though.

If it has enough ooumph to key big grid distribution transformers then
it could take a while to recover power in affected zones. They are
usually made to order...

Regards,
Martin Brown

Chris.B

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Jun 16, 2010, 11:16:48 AM6/16/10
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One would think that the rotation of the earth would favour certain
locations and damage others.

Unless, of course, the solar storm was long lived enough to "bake" the
whole globe.

I've spent my whole life being told to be afraid of the latest scare.

Didn't affect me at all.

Didn't affect me at all.

Didn't affect me at all. ;-)

Message has been deleted

MIB

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Jun 16, 2010, 1:42:10 PM6/16/10
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"Morten Reistad" <fi...@last.name> wrote in message
news:k3ane7-...@laptop.reistad.name...

> At PPOE we were hit by multiple DRAM errors, unreproducable, during
> the March 13th 1989 storm. It led to two OS crashes, and several
> database tracebacks; and one failover to a backup system. And
> several PC crashes, but those didn't register. They happened all the
> time anyway.
>
> It was just weird errors at the time. We only correlated it with the
> solar storm a week after the fact, when hardware tests showed up
> absolutly no damage, just some records of parity faulted changed bits.
>
> You need a very, _very_ major storm to get beyond that level.
>
> The biggest danger for power supplies is not a grid failure, it is
> a grid disconnect. There are so many feedbacks into the grid that
> it is needed for dampening of shutdown effects. It is the cut
> that destroys hardware; when the elevator engines suddenly send a
> 30ms large spike back into the local, small, discnnected grid.
>
> -- mrr

How much of that was due to faulty electrical design and the electrically
wrong use of the grounding conductor as an electrical path?

Canada lost their grid because they failed to equalize the potential of their
system to ground.

Message has been deleted
Message has been deleted
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Bill M

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Jun 18, 2010, 10:00:30 AM6/18/10
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"Martin Brown" <|||newspam|||@nezumi.demon.co.uk> wrote:

> I suspect about the worst case would be GPS satellites damaged and
> degraded and a loss of satellite live feed bandwidth. Anything that was
> sealed inside something as unsophisticated an earthed biscuit tin would
> survive serious levels of EMP so if you want your iPod to survive that
> is where to put it.

EMP-proof boxes - a new line in iPod accessories!

> Is somewhat more balanced in its reporting although it does detail the
> so called Carrington flare of 1859 which would probably do a lot of
> damage to long transmission lines and communication satellites today.
> The aurora would be pretty impressive though.
>
> If it has enough ooumph to key big grid distribution transformers then
> it could take a while to recover power in affected zones. They are
> usually made to order...

Could take years, and you might not be able to flush your john:
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather/


Chris.B

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Jun 18, 2010, 2:00:06 PM6/18/10
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The whole thing reminds me of holding a burning glass over ants in our
youth. They rush headlong unaware of the source of their destruction.
A bit like us really.. Our lives so full of completely redundant
behaviours. The thin veneer of civilisation ready to be torn away by
the slightest accident of fate. Catastrophe always only a bend in the
road away. We keep up the pretence of immortality until the last and
then expect the lifeboatmen to rescue us from our own inexcusable
excesses. We are all heroes in or own eyes until the last moment
before the sacrificial rescuer lowers us shamefacedly from the
vertiginous cliff into the limelight of our own stupidity. Blind to
consequence we parade like bold, psychopathic Neroes on the stage of
life. Uncaring of outcome until the bitter tears of sanction are
finally wrung from our recalcitrant eyes. Alas, always too late for
our countless victims of indifference. While good men toil, bloodied
unto death, you rejoice in unjust reward. Will the fierce, astringent
focus of our loupe never fall on those, our perpetual tormentors? The
banking sect of the vampires.

Davoud

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Jun 18, 2010, 4:45:17 PM6/18/10
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Chris.B wrote:

Maudlin stuff. Too many adjectives. And, unlike those ants, we have no
super-being(s) looking down on us and deciding whether we prosper or
perish.

Furthermore, if it's any consolation, remember that the ants outnumber
us and by just about any rational measure are a far more successful
species than we are, unencumbered by sentience and the woes that are
troubling you.

Instead of mourning the few ants that get cooked by thoughtless little
boys, lets celebrate the uncountable myriad that live their lives in
relative peace and oblivion.

Quadibloc

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Jun 19, 2010, 9:36:18 PM6/19/10
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On Jun 15, 10:22 pm, Chris L Peterson <c...@alumni.caltech.edu> wrote:

> It's nonsense to suggest that solar activity is going to damage small
> electronic devices. However, if we actually had solar activity strong
> enough to fry iPods, that would be the end of civilization, if not the
> world. That kind of energy would essentially destroy all electronics,
> everywhere on Earth. Civilization would not survive that.

And if we aren't sent into a new dark age by all our computers being
fried in 2013... in 2015, the New Horizons mission will make its
closest approach to Pluto.

At which time, we will discover it is the home of the Mi-Go, and,
therefore, "retreat to the safety of a new dark age".

John Savard

Dave Typinski

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Jun 20, 2010, 10:37:09 AM6/20/10
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Davoud <st...@sky.net> wrote:
>
>Furthermore, if it's any consolation, remember that the ants outnumber
>us and by just about any rational measure are a far more successful
>species than we are, unencumbered by sentience and the woes that are
>troubling you.
>
>Instead of mourning the few ants that get cooked by thoughtless little
>boys, lets celebrate the uncountable myriad that live their lives in
>relative peace and oblivion.

Or those that seem to act rather like us?

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126221150&ft=2&f=510221
"Ants are the most warlike of all animals. War is something that can
only originate when you have societies. You know, you can say that one
snake was at war with another one in the swamp. But we mean it to be
of group against group. And ants actually are a lot more violent and
warlike than human beings." --E.O. Wilson, author of "Anthill"
--
Dave

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