Was Black Death Really Yersinia Pestis?
Matthew G. Saroff
Bubonic Plague, it really does not match the way Black Death
works.
There are not enough fleas, it hit rural areas too hard,
there is a constellation of symptoms only some of which
correspond with the plague.
This sucker didn't burn out until it killed half the
population of Europe, and it killed just as well in rural areas,
which mitigates against rat/flea transmission.
It moved blisteringly fast, 5 miles a day, going from the
South of England to the North of Scotland in about 6 months.
I'm wondering if the reservoir for this disease might
have been something that moves faster than people, or rats, or
bolts of wool containing fleas.
I watched a show that made what seemed to be a somewhat
persuasive case that it was something else. There is a mention
of hemorrhagic fever, because of reports of vomiting blood, and 5
miles a day is blisteringly fast given the transportation
infrastructure of the time, unless it was carried by birds (maybe
an avian disease?).
Diseases do change in contagious behavior and lethality
(it happened in near real time with that rabbit infection in
Australia), so today's Yersinia could simply be milder.
Someone once mentioned to me that he thought, as did
members of the Soviet bio defense establishment, that it was the
marmot plague, a sub variant that has the marmot as a reservoir,
which apparently tends to go straight for human lungs.
Any thoughts?
--
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Cynthia Virtue
> I watched a show that made what seemed to be a somewhat
> persuasive case that it was something else.
Could you tell us more about the show and how to find it? I'd be
interested in watching it.
--
Cynthia Virtue and/or Cynthia du Pre Argent
"The result is that Black Friday generally ends up ranking as the fifth
biggest sales day of the year at most, behind the four days comprising
the two weekends before Christmas." -- Snopes.com
Jim
to person with Y Pestis as the etiological agent. Unless I am mistaken
buboes were common since lancing them was described as part of the
treatment. So if another etiological agent was the sole cause it would
have been one that produced buboes. I believe boboes are due to
bacterial infections. My guess is it was a strain which rapidly went
from bubonic to pneumonic.
>
Jim Koch (Gladius The Alchemist)
David Friedman
Matthew G. Saroff <msa...@pobox.com> wrote:
> Someone once mentioned to me that he thought, as did
> members of the Soviet bio defense establishment, that it was the
> marmot plague, a sub variant that has the marmot as a reservoir,
> which apparently tends to go straight for human lungs.
My memory is that, according to _Plagues and Peoples_, ground living
rodents were an alternate host--perhaps the marmots you mention. It
spread across western asia via the rodents, then via humans/rats/fleas
when it reached the eastern end of European population density.
--
David/Cariadoc
www.daviddfriedman.com
macea...@astound.net
Yes. Even today, bubonic plague is endemic in many species of rodents.
It appears, as i recall, to be about like a cold to humans. Everyone
gets it, almost no one dies from it. The suspicion is that it
originally
jumped species and humans had little defense against it. Even today
the pulmonary version is deadly to humans.
Jeannette
Viz. ground squirrels, common in the west of the United States (and
probably other places, too).
I forget whether it was the one Potrerro or the one Estrella I
attended at which we were told that if, sometime not long after
arriving at home, we developed flulike symptoms, we ought to go
to the doctor and say that we might have been exposed to
bubonic plague.
I can just see *that* going over well in an Emergency Room,
can't you? "Excuse me, doctor, but I believe I may have the
Black Death..."
--Jeannette
BMDL, AEthelmearc
John Groseclose
Jeannette <neo...@thefreesite.com> wrote:
> I forget whether it was the one Potrerro or the one Estrella I
> attended at which we were told that if, sometime not long after
> arriving at home, we developed flulike symptoms, we ought to go
> to the doctor and say that we might have been exposed to
> bubonic plague.
If you heard this at an Estrella (flu-like symptoms) you would have
been told to go tell your doctor you have been exposed to
coccidioidomycosis, or "Valley Fever."
http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/001322.htm
Iain
--
spam delenda est
Jim
Jeannette wrote:
> >Even today, bubonic plague is endemic in many species of rodents
>
> Viz. ground squirrels, common in the west of the United States (and
> probably other places, too).
>
> I can just see *that* going over well in an Emergency Room,
> can't you? "Excuse me, doctor, but I believe I may have the
> Black Death..."
>
> --Jeannette
> BMDL, AEthelmearc
>
The plague arrived in North America via ship from China in 1895 and
jumped from wharf rats to squirrels to ground squirrels. About one
person in the US dies from it every year. Fortunately since it is
bacterial, it is easily treated if the doctor you see recognizes the
causal agent. The big problem is that many people who contract it are
initially misdiagnosed and die before the actual cause is recognized.
With proper care, most modern sufferers will survive. There was also
an anti-serum developed in the late 19th century which was the drug of
choice before antibiotics. Today it is still easily treated with
antibiotics.
Mike Andrews
My GP, at least, would just nod thoughtfully and then ask when you
were last in New Mexico, west Texas, Colorado, Wyoming, or points
westward of there. Y. pestis is moving from west to east, and the
gradient was steepest at roughly the Texas-NM border last time I
looked this up.
To put it in less abstract terms: if you can get close enough to a
chipmunk or other rodent to pet it, you should get away from it
because it might well be sick with plague. This is especially true
to the west of a line running north-south roughly through San Jon,
NM. That line is moving eastward about 10-30 miles per year.
--
Q: How many mathematicians does it take to screw in a lightbulb?
A: One. He gives it to six Californians, thereby reducing the problem
to the earlier joke.
Heather Rose Jones
> The plague arrived in North America via ship from China in 1895 and
> jumped from wharf rats to squirrels to ground squirrels. About one
> person in the US dies from it every year. Fortunately since it is
> bacterial, it is easily treated if the doctor you see recognizes the
> causal agent. The big problem is that many people who contract it are
> initially misdiagnosed and die before the actual cause is recognized.
> With proper care, most modern sufferers will survive. There was also
> an anti-serum developed in the late 19th century which was the drug of
> choice before antibiotics. Today it is still easily treated with
> antibiotics.
There is also a vaccine against it, although it's generally
only given to people likely to have significant regular
potential for exposure. (I was in that category for a while
when I was doing quality control testing of the vaccine.)
Tangwystyl
--
Heather Rose Jones
hea...@heatherrosejones.com
<http://heatherrosejones.com>
Livejournal: hrj
Harold Groot
wrote:
It may be unknown back in PA, but here on the west coast it is
certainly known (if rare). I would guess a dozen or two cases each
year, with perhaps one fatality. It's easily treated by antibiotics
if correctly diagnosed in time, but a PA doctor most likely would not
be looking for it. So yes, any time you travel and then return home
just before developing symptoms, mentioning your travels to your
doctor (and the possibility of specific local diseases found there) is
A Good Idea.
Jeannette
>it is certainly known (if rare).
Before my brief sojourn in Caid, I was unaware that plague
was endemic *anywhere* anymore. If I'd thought about it
I probably would have figured it had to be, but it's just not
something that occured to me. :)
>It's easily treated by antibiotics if correctly diagnosed in time,
>but a PA doctor most likely would not be looking for it.
Yep, that's exactly it. A doctor in the Southwest might
actually think to test for it; one around here probably wouldn't
even think of the possibility if s/he wasn't told it existed.
--Jeannette
BMDL, AEthelmearc
Matthew G. Saroff
Actually, the argument about Marmots, (just googled Wendy
Orent's Plague : The Mysterious Past and Terrifying Future of the
World's Most Dangerous Disease. http://tinyurl.com/cakkn warning
Amazon link) is not that they were the carrier, but that their
subspecies of plague that has an affinity for lung tissue (and
hence Pneumonic Plague).
Modern Plague has a Pneumonic rate of less than 3%, and
the black death appeared to be far more contagious.
Apparently, she collaborated with former Soviet bio
weapons scientist, Igor Domaradskij, and I'm kind of figuring
that he's probably got an encyclopedic knowledge of various sub
species of Y Pestis.
Of course, one of the problems is that the reports from
period are inconsistent, and record keeping is abysmal.
Poland has no record of major Plague outbreaks, but the
consensus is that it wasn't spared, because recorded labor pay
rates skyrocketed, just as in the surrounding areas. (sometimes
Economics is not such a dismal science).
Steve Mesnick
> I can just see *that* going over well in an Emergency Room,
> can't you? "Excuse me, doctor, but I believe I may have the
> Black Death..."
To which any ER doc worth his salt wouldn't even crack a smile.
Plague (still the disease's common name) is still around in small
pockets, particularly the AZ/NM area.
He'd culture for it, and prescribe streptomycin, 1 gram IM every
12 hours for 10 days. Alternatively, I think you can use oral
doxycycline. (Haven't seen many cases lately %^J). In any case,
relatively cheap and easy, but this is 2005, not 1349.
My recollection of conventional wisdom is that the Black Death was a
combination of several particularly virulent strains of Yersinia
(formerly Pasteurella) pestis, causing both bubonic and pulmonic plague.
Steve Mesnick, RPh
(Steffan thinks its due to an imbalance of
humours and consorting with heretics)
Matthew G. Saroff
>My recollection of conventional wisdom is that the Black Death was a
>combination of several particularly virulent strains of Yersinia
>(formerly Pasteurella) pestis, causing both bubonic and pulmonic plague.
I know that Y. Pestis is named after a Dr. Yersin. Why
the change in name?
The people who argue against Y. Pestis claim that it's
transmission and speed of progress mitigate against it being a
flea born disease.
Some also claim that the symptoms are wrong.
Personally, I think that it's a not (thankfully) extinct
sub variant that tended to go Pneumonic, and hence person to
person contagious, with greater frequency than the current
variants.
Jim
and changed in terms of virulence, morbidity and mortality over the
centuries, we also have to consider the fact that we are the
descendants of the people who survived the various plague outbreas.
Add to that the fact that our modern diet tends to make for a stronger
immune system. I believe where records exist, comparisons have been
made between the survival rates of average villagers and monks. The
monks had higher survival rates. The reason I have heard for this is
that they received better care. I suspect they were also better fed
and hence had a greater chance of fighting off the disease.
Derek Lyons
> Poland has no record of major Plague outbreaks, but the
>consensus is that it wasn't spared, because recorded labor pay
>rates skyrocketed, just as in the surrounding areas. (sometimes
>Economics is not such a dismal science).
It seems to me that if adjacent areas had their labor rates
skyrocketing, that unless Poland did so - it would soon have no labor.
Thus having raising pay rates is mixed evidence at best.
D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.
-Resolved: To be more temperate in my postings.
Oct 5th, 2004 JDL
Matthew G. Saroff
>Matthew G. Saroff <msa...@pobox.com> wrote:
>
>> Poland has no record of major Plague outbreaks, but the
>>consensus is that it wasn't spared, because recorded labor pay
>>rates skyrocketed, just as in the surrounding areas. (sometimes
>>Economics is not such a dismal science).
>
>It seems to me that if adjacent areas had their labor rates
>skyrocketing, that unless Poland did so - it would soon have no labor.
>Thus having raising pay rates is mixed evidence at best.
The rates skyrocketed by the same amount as surrounding
areas that were documented as being hit by the plague.
Given the relatively high cost of travel of the time,
there would have been a "stay at home" discount, and there was
none.
Ralph E Lindberg
fair...@gmail.com (Derek Lyons) wrote:
> Matthew G. Saroff <msa...@pobox.com> wrote:
>
> > Poland has no record of major Plague outbreaks, but the
> >consensus is that it wasn't spared, because recorded labor pay
> >rates skyrocketed, just as in the surrounding areas. (sometimes
> >Economics is not such a dismal science).
>
> It seems to me that if adjacent areas had their labor rates
> skyrocketing, that unless Poland did so - it would soon have no labor.
> Thus having raising pay rates is mixed evidence at best.
>
Theodoric, labor shortages and the increased cost of labor was one of
the major issues of concern to the (surviving) nobles/mercants. They
tried to control it via laws, but their laws ignored the laws of
economics.
TTFN
Ralg
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Derek Lyons
>In article <4394ee82...@news.supernews.com>,
> fair...@gmail.com (Derek Lyons) wrote:
>
>> Matthew G. Saroff <msa...@pobox.com> wrote:
>>
>> > Poland has no record of major Plague outbreaks, but the
>> >consensus is that it wasn't spared, because recorded labor pay
>> >rates skyrocketed, just as in the surrounding areas. (sometimes
>> >Economics is not such a dismal science).
>>
>> It seems to me that if adjacent areas had their labor rates
>> skyrocketing, that unless Poland did so - it would soon have no labor.
>> Thus having raising pay rates is mixed evidence at best.
>>
> Theodoric, labor shortages and the increased cost of labor was one of
>the major issues of concern to the (surviving) nobles/mercants. They
>tried to control it via laws, but their laws ignored the laws of
>economics.
I'm quite aware of that Ralg. I'm also aware of the modern effects of
raising labor rates and the availability of work - workers tend to go
where more work and more pay is available. This leads to things like
the growth of the Sun Belt and the depopulation of the rural midwest
here in the USA. (Though the latter is accelerated by other factors
of course. How are you going to keep them on the farm when they've
seen MTV?, to mangle a quote from post WWI.)
pyotr filipivich
is what happens: que...@infionline.net (Harold Groot) writes on Fri, 02
Dec 2005 05:08:54 GMT in rec.org.sca :
Years ago (mid early seventies), I recall reading of a report of a case
of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever showing up in a young man. Fortunately for
him, his doctor too had immigrated from the US, otherwise, the odds of
getting a correct & timely diagnosis in Jerusalem were quite low.
tschus
pyotr
--
Nikolai Petrovich Flandropoff
Whimiscal Order of the Ailing Wit
Scribe & Zampollet to Clan MacFlandry
Loose Canon, An Tir Heavy Opera Company
Semi-offical TASS correspondent (That makes me - the Demi-Tass)
Matthew G. Saroff
Usenet discussion.
In any case, I came across an series of posts, and blogged about
it
(http://40yrs.blogspot.com/2008/01/on-whether-y-pestis-caused-black-death.html),
and I thought that I would repost here:
I discussed this on the Usenet group Rec.Org.SCA about three
years ago.
I was watching something on the Discovery Channel, and some
people were making arguments that the Black Death could not have
been Yerisnia Pestis, because some of its characteristics were
simply completely at odds with what is observed in modern Bubonic
Plague outbreaks.
Looking back at the archives, my assessment was that it was
likely a variant of the Plague with a higher affinity for lung
tissues (I mention the Marmot sub-variant as an example).
In any case, Tara C. Smith just did a 4 part blog series on Y.
pestis as the black death, which thoroughly convinces me that Y.
pestis was Black Death.
* Part 1: Objections to Y. pestis causation
(http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2008/01/did_yersinia_pestis_really_cau.php)
* Part 2: Examination of the criticisms
(http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2008/01/did_yersinia_pestis_really_cau_1.php)
* Part 3: Paleomicrobiology and the detection of Y. pestis in
corpses
(http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2008/01/did_yersinia_pestis_really_cau_2.php)
* Part 4: Plague in modern times.
(http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2008/01/did_yersinia_pestis_really_cau_4.php)
It's a very good read.
Matthew G. Saroff
Usenet discussion.
In any case, I came across an series of posts, and blogged about
it (), and I thought that I would repost here:
I discussed this on the Usenet group Rec.Org.SCA about three
years ago.
I was watching something on the Discovery Channel, and some
people were making arguments that the Black Death could not have
been Yerisnia Pestis, because some of its characteristics were
simply completely at odds with what is observed in modern Bubonic
Plague outbreaks.
Looking back at the archives, my assessment was that it was
likely a variant of the Plague with a higher affinity for lung
tissues (I mention the Marmot sub-variant as an example).
In any case, Tara C. Smith just did a 4 part blog series on Y.
pestis as the black death, which thoroughly convinces me that Y.
pestis was Black Death.
* Part 1: Objections to Y. pestis causation
(http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2008/01/did_yersinia_pestis_really_cau.php)
* Part 2: Examination of the criticisms
(http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2008/01/did_yersinia_pestis_really_cau_1.php)
* Part 3: Paleomicrobiology and the detection of Y. pestis in
corpses
(http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2008/01/did_yersinia_pestis_really_cau_2.php)
* Part 4: Plague in modern times.
(http://scienceblogs.com/aetiology/2008/01/did_yersinia_pestis_really_cau_4.php)
It's a very good read.