Online Poker's Latest Cheating Scandal
lawh...@hiwaay.net
in SNG’s and so forth), I doubt if more than a few RGP’ers – if even
that many – were directly affected by this as almost all of what
follows occurred in high-limit and no-limit games on Stars and Full
Tilt. With that caveat out of the way, on to the meat of this post.
Online poker has been hit with another cheating scandal - and this one
is a real doozy. Folks who routinely listen to 2+2’s “PokerCast”
internet radio program:
http://pokercast.twoplustwo.com/
have already gotten a heads up on this. (The discussion of this
latest scandal begins at the 1 hour 37 minute mark of PokerCast
episode # 118.)
You’ll need a decent knowledge of math and statistics to follow all
this, but a very diligent fellow (i.e. “NoahSD”) who posts on 2+2 did
an exhaustive statistical analysis which leads to a damning
conclusion: It appears that Nick Grudzien, (aka “Stoxtrader”) who
founded [now defunct] poker training site StoxPoker, was a moderator
on the high limit/NL forum on 2+2, and wrote a 2+2 book, (i.e.
“Winning in Tough Hold ‘em Games”); engaged in multi-accounting and
collusion (in the form of soft playing) with at least one other
colluding associate. (The other player/colluder – who is identified
by name in the 2+2 thread – is described as a “business partner” and
“close personal friend” of Nick Grudzien.) Noah expended enormous
time and effort to uncover the cheating. It appears that Noah’s work
has been validated since Mr. Grudzien resigned his position with
StoxPoker. Furthermore, Mason Malmuth, the owner of 2+2, removed Nick
as a moderator in the 2+2 high stakes NL/PL forum. Mr. Grudzien, for
his part, has suddenly gone silent and is not screaming that he is
innocent and has been unfairly maligned. (As far as I know, Nick has
not yet threatened NoahSD with a lawsuit or bodily harm …)
There is an extended thread on 2+2 (with several hundred posts) where
you can read NoahSD’s original post and examine all the evidence he
lays out to back up his charges. (This is where you’ll need to
understand statistics and how to interpret things like confidence
intervals and standard deviation – the kind of things I barely
understand.) There are also a ton of questions, answers, and comments
from other posters. You can view that post here:
The amazing thing about this latest cheating scandal is that both
Poker Stars and Full Tilt were told about Nick Grudzien (and exactly
what to look for) more than a year ago. Both sites
“investigated” (and then cleared) Mr. Grudzien, declaring that there
was “no cheating” going on. Stated another way, both Poker Stars and
Full Tilt “missed” this cheating going on right under their noses! To
their credit, the security departments at both sites are now
[presumably] “looking into” NoahSD’s evidence hopefully with a view
toward refunding money to all the players who were cheated by Nick
Grudzien. (As far as I know, there has not yet been a formal
statement from either Poker Stars or Full Tilt acknowledging this
latest cheating scandal, but I’m assuming such a statement will be
forthcoming since neither one of these sites presumably wants to get
tarred and feathered with the same brush as Absolute Poker and
Ultimate Bet.)
This is precisely the reason why I would like to see online poker
legalized and regulated here in the United States. Making online
poker legal and regulated probably won’t put an end to all attempts at
cheating and collusion, but, with the Government looking over their
shoulder - and keenly interested in collecting tax revenue - cheating
allegations will probably be investigated with much greater vigor. As
part of the regulation and oversight, I would hope that the Government
sets up an anonymous “whistleblower hotline” where players who have
observed suspicious activity, outright cheating, and/or suspected
collusion would be able to report such activity. If the hotline
begins receiving numerous complaints about a particular player or
players, that would be a red flag for the security departments to look
more closely at that particular player or players. The Government
might also consider hiring a handful of very sharp guys – like
“NoahSD” – to staff this hotline and work with the sites to ensure
game security. I would also hope that legislation which legalizes
online poker would include provisions for jail time and stiff fines
for players who get caught doing what Nick Grudzien and his partner
have apparently got caught doing. Right now, with online poker in a
legal “gray area,” Nick and his partner(s) in crime have basically
gotten away with this – unless somebody he’s cheated catches him out
on the street …
Achieving 100 percent square games is probably impossible, but the
failures in this case are especially unsettling. Both Full Tilt and
Stars “cleared” Mr. Grudzien even when they had access to complete
hand histories – including hole cards – while NoahSD managed to
uncover this cheating without access to any of their hole cards!
Noah’s work is an incredible feat of dogged persistence and keen
detective work. If there is a Nobel Prize for statistical analysis,
Noah should win it hands down.
Alan C. Lawhon
Huntsville, Alabama
XaQ Morphy
> The amazing thing about this latest cheating scandal is that both
> Poker Stars and Full Tilt were told about Nick Grudzien (and exactly
> what to look for) more than a year ago. Both sites
I don't know why this is amazing. Stars has a history of harboring
multi-accounters, and FullTilt's support is flat out clueless.
---
Morphy
xaqm...@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
..and no, this doesn't mean I'm back.
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johnny_t
I disagree that non of us is affected by collusion. I am sure that we are.
They probably don't look for soft play, because that doesn't have as
clear as damage. There are tons of things that look a lot more like
collusion and damaging to third partys.
Things that you can do only if you see the whole cards.
I know that I have been damaged, I have had my account refunded some
dollars.
And I disagree with the idea that because one has thought of a new
investigative technique, that the sites are "untrustworthy" because they
hadn't already thought of it.
The proof in the pudding would be that if this worked in the future...
--
If it doesn't fit on a bumper
sticker, Republicans can't un
Clave in RGP
RUStupid Mark
<lawh...@HiWAAY.net> wrote in message
news:afffa9cc-6757-4322...@q30g2000yqd.googlegroups.com...
>(As far as I know, there has not yet been a formal
>statement from either Poker Stars or Full Tilt acknowledging this
>latest cheating scandal, but I�m assuming such a statement will be
>forthcoming since neither one of these sites presumably wants to get
>tarred and feathered with the same brush as Absolute Poker and
>Ultimate Bet.)
Same brush? IIRC the AB & UB scandals were both internal.
Collusion is a risk any time you're playing in a cash game against
more than one opponent (whether online, or live!) The only way
to ensure you're opponents aren't cheating you by colluding would
be to only play heads-up, one opponent at a time. Regardless of
the outcome, I don't think PS or FTP can be painted with the same
brush as AB/UB. You're comparing apples and oranges.
lawh...@hiwaay.net
> <lawho...@HiWAAY.net> wrote in message
>
> news:afffa9cc-6757-4322...@q30g2000yqd.googlegroups.com...
>
> >(As far as I know, there has not yet been a formal
> >statement from either Poker Stars or Full Tilt acknowledging this
> >forthcoming since neither one of these sites presumably wants to get
> >tarred and feathered with the same brush as Absolute Poker and
> >Ultimate Bet.)
>
> Same brush? IIRC the AB & UB scandals were both internal.
> Collusion is a risk any time you're playing in a cash game against
> more than one opponent (whether online, or live!) The only way
> to ensure you're opponents aren't cheating you by colluding would
> be to only play heads-up, one opponent at a time. Regardless of
> the outcome, I don't think PS or FTP can be painted with the same
> brush as AB/UB. You're comparing apples and oranges.
Dear Mr. RU:
In the Absolute Poker/Ultimate Bet cheating scandals, what was the
initial response of those two sites to charges and allegations that
cheating was going on? Both sites conducted thorough and impartial
"investigations" and promptly declared that their games were totally
on the up-and-up and there was absolutely no evidence of cheating.
(In other words, AP and UB initially responded by going into denial
and obfuscation mode.) Only when the evidence became overwhelming did
they come clean, admit the obvious, and promise to reimburse those
players who had been harmed. The important point here is that the
initial response was to deny and obfuscate - only later did these
sites - and the KGC - finally acknowledge the truth.
In the current scandal, according to strong statements by "NoahSD" and
others, we have both Full Tilt and Poker Stars informed - more than a
year ago - of suspicious activity involving Nick Grudzien and multiple
accounts linked to Mr. Grudzien. (If NoahSD's statements on the 2+2
thread are to be believed, Poker Stars and FT were even told what to
look for!) So what is the response from Poker Stars and Full Tilt?
They conduct their own "thorough and objective" investigations and
promptly clear Mr. Grudzien of any allegations of cheating. Poker
Stars and Full Tilt give Nick (and his cohort) a clean bill of
health. Now, with a mountain of strong and incriminating evidence -
primarily thanks to the yeoman's work of NoahSD - what is the response
of Poker Stars and Full Tilt? In one word: silence.
I don't see a great deal of difference in the response to these two
scandals. In both cases, the initial response of the sites was to
conduct their own "investigations" and promptly declare the thiefs
innocent! It looks like "apples to apples" to me, but what do I know?
johnny_t
> I don't see a great deal of difference in the response to these two
> scandals. In both cases, the initial response of the sites was to
> conduct their own "investigations" and promptly declare the thiefs
> innocent! It looks like "apples to apples" to me, but what do I know?
No, no, no. One is a failure of understanding and technological
discovery. As you said it was complex, but useful. Now that they know.
But it didn't involve the basic executive structure of the company,
and the risk wasn't fundamental and it didn't involve actually looking
at cards.
There is a massive difference between soft playing that was found using
a new approach to the data available. And the executive staff having
special access that allowed them to see players card.
If that looks like apples to apples to you. Ok, they are both poker
sites, that's probably good enough.
La Cosa Nostradamus
> <lawh...@HiWAAY.net> wrote in message
> news:afffa9cc-6757-4322...@q30g2000yqd.googlegroups.com...
>
> >(As far as I know, there has not yet been a formal
> >statement from either Poker Stars or Full Tilt acknowledging this
> >latest cheating scandal, but I�m assuming such a statement will be
> >forthcoming since neither one of these sites presumably wants to get
> >tarred and feathered with the same brush as Absolute Poker and
> >Ultimate Bet.)
>
> Same brush? IIRC the AB & UB scandals were both internal.
> Collusion is a risk any time you're playing in a cash game against
> more than one opponent (whether online, or live!) The only way
> to ensure you're opponents aren't cheating you by colluding would
> be to only play heads-up, one opponent at a time. Regardless of
> the outcome, I don't think PS or FTP can be painted with the same
> brush as AB/UB. You're comparing apples and oranges.
yeah, play against the magical people at fulltilt in headsup matches
--------�
La Cosa Nostradamus
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FULLSHIT KNEW THEIR PAL WAS CHEATING AND WHAT DO
THEY DO ?
FULLSHIT ALLOWS CHEATING IF YOU ARE IN THE TREEFORT CLUB.
THATS WHY FULLSHITTERS ARE GOING TO JAIL.
I will make sure i get the inmate addresses so you can send them stuff in
the pokey.
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lawh...@hiwaay.net
Clave (or johnny_t):
I see your point ... thanks for clarifying that. It's taking me
quite a bit of time to read through all the posts in NoahSD's thread,
but I did pick up on one where Noah stated that both FT and Stars are
very much aware of this situation. Noah expects both sites to
(eventually) release a formal statement. It's going to be very
interesting to see the stance both sites take in dealing with this
issue since this latest "problem" goes to the heart of their business:
namely "trust" and whether or not their customers have a reasonable
expectation of being dealt a square game. It's hard enough to beat
these online games as is, but if you're up against cheaters and
colluders like Grudzien, it's a virtual impossibility. Also,
considering the monumental contribution "NoahSD" and other members of
the 2+2 community made in uncovering this collusion, I would hope that
(in the future) sites like Poker Stars and Full Tilt will take reports
of "suspicious activity" by obviously intelligent folks like NoahSD
with much greater seriousness. This is really incredible, but one of
the postings on 2+2 was an email communication from Taylor Caby to
Nick Grudzien where Taylor was looking for an assurance (from Nick)
that Nick was not involved in any way with multi-accounting, cheating,
or collusion. (Taylor's legitimate concern was that instructors on
his training site - Card Runners - must be ethically clean and above
reproach.) Nick had the gall to tell Taylor, lying right through his
teeth, "Stars looked in to all this and cleared me." Just incredible,
but then again Nick used to work on Wall Street, so what do you
expect?
Deadmoney Walking
>
> - Show quoted text -
If an expert was multi accounting, wouldn't that be near impossible to
prove without knowing that he has a bunch of accouts.
let me guess, they proved it with statistics?
DELETETHIS
NoahSD"? We have a poster here that rants constantly about poker sites
cheating him. It is not as easy to wade through all the complaints and
with no real idea who is who- what are they to do? I dont want to
defend PS or FT but the task is not all that easy. I never play even
normal stakes poker on line because I simply do not trust the venue much
like many of the backroom poker games with total strangers. Long ago
many big time pool hustlers gave up the road games and started playing
by appointment. At one point with the amount of money involved, games
like this will be arranged since the cost of attending will be very
small when compared with the money on the table. Add that to the
problems of one line depositing and collecting money and these games
will start becoming more frequent? The reputation of the big game at
Bobby's place is not all that clean or it might be the spot.
I would hope that
> (in the future) sites like Poker Stars and Full Tilt will take reports
> of "suspicious activity" by obviously intelligent folks like NoahSD
> with much greater seriousness.
>
La Cosa Nostradamus
2 plus 2 is home for stars shills.
skanksee and mullmouth have some love comin there way.
The spineless pussies at gay plus gay gang together like 5 little gang
members who will be cryin for mommy when the gang aint around.
well , maybe the gang is bigger than 5 as i had an easier time with fat
albert and his gang in jail
2 pus 2 sux, stars sux and fullshit all have more love coming for them
than they are ready for.
Gangs are always tuff until they find themselves alone with a lone wolf.
2 pus 2 is home for spineless pussies and cheats, nothing more.
Gangs dont survive. lone soldiers do.
It will be nice to get just a few of them alone at a time in the future.
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HoneyMonster
> what do I know?
Fuck all, obv.
XaQ Morphy
> I don't see a great deal of difference in the response to these two
> scandals. In both cases, the initial response of the sites was to
> conduct their own "investigations" and promptly declare the thiefs
> innocent! It looks like "apples to apples" to me, but what do I know?
Then you need to go do some research on them before you write up another
book full of nonsense. If you think these two "scandals" are in any way
alike, all it shows is that you don't know what you're talking about. And
no, I'm not going to explain the differences to you, since the information
is readily available and has been posted on RGP several times over.
---
Morphy
xaqm...@donkeymanifesto.com
http://www.donkeymanifesto.com
..and no, this doesn't mean I'm back.
____________________________________________________________________�
K9way
i think the simulators are cheating people also
do you have a telephone number or a social security number or an address
or a ....
Alim's answer: None of those track my every move
RUStupid Mark
<lawh...@HiWAAY.net> wrote in message
news:3716ec30-c97b-4152...@o11g2000yqj.googlegroups.com...
On Apr 30, 10:39 pm, johnny_t <nobod...@home.com> wrote:
> On 4/30/10 6:43 PM, lawho...@HiWAAY.net wrote:
>
> It's going to be very
> interesting to see the stance both sites take in dealing with this
> issue since this latest "problem" goes to the heart of their business:
> namely "trust" and whether or not their customers have a reasonable
> expectation of being dealt a square game.
They are, and were always being dealt a square game.
Again, they're being cheated by other players, not the site itself.
> I would hope that
> (in the future) sites like Poker Stars and Full Tilt will take reports
> of "suspicious activity" by obviously intelligent folks like NoahSD
> with much greater seriousness.
How do they weed through the obviously retarded folks to find
those obviously intelligent folks? I'm guessing they get upwards of
5,000 complaints/inquiries from the former category for every one
from the latter... how do you weed out the skillz's ?
La Cosa Nostradamus
You start by being a shill and offer to help someone when in fact all you
are doing is being a shill
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Gary Carson
> This is precisely the reason why I would like to see online poker
> legalized and regulated here in the United States. Making online
> poker legal and regulated probably won�t put an end to all attempts at
> cheating and collusion, but, with the Government looking over their
> shoulder - and keenly interested in collecting tax revenue - cheating
> allegations will probably be investigated with much greater vigor.
LOL.
Cheating at poker does not effect tax revenues. You should bone up on the
history of poker cheating in live games in legal and regulated poker
rooms.
As
> part of the regulation and oversight, I would hope that the Government
> sets up an anonymous �whistleblower hotline� where players who have
> observed suspicious activity, outright cheating, and/or suspected
> collusion would be able to report such activity.
Like the government has done for live games?
> Achieving 100 percent square games is probably impossible, but the
> failures in this case are especially unsettling. Both Full Tilt and
> Stars �cleared� Mr. Grudzien even when they had access to complete
> hand histories � including hole cards � while NoahSD managed to
> uncover this cheating without access to any of their hole cards!
> Noah�s work is an incredible feat of dogged persistence and keen
> detective work. If there is a Nobel Prize for statistical analysis,
> Noah should win it hands down.
>
LOL.
He did good work, But his methods don't really instill tons of
confidence. I don't want to get into it but he seems to have been
appliying classical statistical methods to a data-mining chore. He
wasn't doing statistical testing so much as he was manipulating
statistical techniques to prove a pet theory. It seems he was right, but
that doesn't validate his statistical techniques.
Gary Carson
> Same brush? IIRC the AB & UB scandals were both internal.
> Collusion is a risk any time you're playing in a cash game against
> more than one opponent (whether online, or live!) The only way
> to ensure you're opponents aren't cheating you by colluding would
> be to only play heads-up, one opponent at a time. Regardless of
> the outcome, I don't think PS or FTP can be painted with the same
> brush as AB/UB. You're comparing apples and oranges.
I don't know anybody who considers soft-play in a live cash game as
cheating.
What makes it cheating in an online game is the likelihood that it's
accompinied by hole card sharing.
______________________________________________________________________�
johnny_t
> I don't know anybody who considers soft-play in a live cash game as
> cheating.
>
> What makes it cheating in an online game is the likelihood that it's
> accompinied by hole card sharing.
Why would I 3-bet the guy I am softplaying only with AA and KK if I am
hole-card sharing?
RichD
> but a very diligent fellow (i.e. “NoahSD”) who posts on 2+2 did
> an exhaustive statistical analysis which leads to a damning
> in multi-accounting and collusion (in the form of soft playing) with at least
> one other colluding associate.
LOL
Soft playing, forsooth!
Every time I see a discussion of collusion methods
on this board, I think: it would be +EV to pay your opponents
to collude.
"When the team has junk, you raise and raise to drive
everyone out. When the team has gold, you raise and
raise to build the pot "
--
Rich