Hustler Kills Yellow Chip Jackpot Drop
Speed Racer
The jackpot was imposed without consulting any of the regular players
whether they wanted a jackpot.
After the jackpot was imposed, the regular players expressed their
dissatisfaction to Hustler management. They were ignored.
Because of the jackpot drop, the regular players slowly left the
Hustler and took their action to other casinos.
The Hustlers yellow chip games began to break.
When the games began to break Hustler management was replaced and the
jackpot drop was eliminated.
Now the Hustler has new management, the jackpot drop is gone, but the
Hustler has lost a large proportion of their regular players.
It will probably take months for the new Hustler management to get
their regular players to return to the Hustler. They will probably
have to spend thousands of dollars in promotions and other incentives
to get them to return and they, like Hollywood Park, may ultimately
fail.
The whole Hustler jackpot drop fiasco could be a case study in how not
to run a cardroom.
P.S. copied below are excerpts from previous posts about the
imposition of the jackpot drop in the Hustler yellow chip games.
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Let me try again to express my thoughts on why the institution of a
jackpot drop in the Hustler yellow chip games is a big mistake.
It always amazes me how ignorant most cardroom managers are of the
underlying forces which drive the games in the top section.
Most cardroom managers think that they can install some poker tables
in an abandoned warehouse, hire some dealers and floormen, and presto,
a stream of players will descend on the cardroom like moths drawn to a
flame.
This may be true in areas where there is only a single playing venue
but in Los Angeles, where there are a half dozen casinos all spreading
the same games and limits within reasonable driving distance of most
poker players, this is naïve. If something is wrong with a particular
cardroom the players will simply vote with their feet, or in L.A. with
their gas pedals, and take their business elsewhere.
The original Hustler Cardroom manager (I think his name was Stan) was
hired from Bay 101 (?) and suffered under this illusion. He failed to
realize the difference between L.A. and Norcal-L.A. is a competitive
market with multiple cardrooms unlike the semi-monopolostic Norcal
market. He never figured out that top section players in L.A. have
alternatives---that he had to do more than just open the doors and
wait for the players to roll in. Of course, under his management the
Hustler top section never established itself and he was eventually
fired.
If you are an L.A. cardroom manager, your games are going good, you
think you can't mess up and that the players will never switch
cardrooms, you are tragically mistaken. You have only to look at the
recent history of the HPC and Bike top sections to see cardrooms that
were managed poorly, lost their players, and now are struggling at
great cost and unsuccessfully to get them back.
Well what allows a top section game to establish itself, survive over
time, and eventually grow?
In top section games, the money or at least the prospect of winning
money matters-and by winning money, I don't mean isolated players
"getting lucky" in negative expectation games like Pai Gow and
California Blackjack. By winning money, I mean the ability of skilled
players to play in games with the possibility of a positive
expectation.
Mason Malmuth, in Poker Essays, p. 217 wrote (and IMHO is correct as
he almost invariable is):
"If a poker room does not have a core of regulars to start the games
and keep them going, the room at best will have only a small number of
games. That means the room won't have a worthwhile drop. and if it
doesn't have a worthwhile drop then goodbye cardroom."
What brings the "core of regulars" into a particular cardroom is an
honest game, with competent dealers and floormen, and a time charge
that can be overcome with skilled play.
Once the core of regulars is coming to the cardroom everyday, the
games are spread everyday, the recreational and occasional players and
big losers will come because they know that if they drive to a
particular cardroom on any given day, there will be good action in
their game of choice. Once a cardroom attracts a core of regular
players they can also cut back on house players-the regulars
effectively act as unpaid props.
In a successful top section a balance gets established between the
positive expectation players and the recreational players. The
positive expectation players pay the collection to the cardroom and
slowly and inexorably take the money of the recreational and
occasional players, the recreational players give their money slowly
and inexorably to the positive expectation players and the cardroom,
(and the off duty dealers and floormen give their paychecks to the
positive expection players, the recreational players, to the cardroom,
and to dealers by over tipping---just thought I'd inject some humor
here!).
Once this balance has been established in a particular cardroom, the
cardroom management cannot become complacent and put cardroom
management on autopilot. They must be vigilant, watch the games
carefully and make sure that this precarious balance is not upset.
An example of lack of vigilance occurred in the Bike Top section in
the late summer and fall last year. The $40-$80 HE, a long established
Bike game, was infected by a group of southeast asian players who
played as a team and verbally berated the other players. Even though
the cardroom manager was told by the regulars what was happening, they
were slow to respond. Over a period of weeks, many of the regular and
recreational players reduced the frequency with which they drove to
the Bike or stopped coming altogether, the game became short handed,
word got around town, first that the game was being scammed, and,
finally, that the game was not going every night. Eventually, the game
broke and is no longer spread.
What about the Hustler yellow chip jackpot? How will this affect the
yellow chip games?
Before I answer this let me first say something about what has
happened in the Hustler Top Section since Yosh Nakano was hired as
manager.
Before Yosh took over, the top section games were on life support.
They were intermittently spread with poor action-the result of poor
management decisions made under the previous manager Craig.
Under Yosh, the Hustler has spent a lot of money propping up the top
section games. Yosh has hired a large group of house players and more
importantly he has hired a large group of house players who show up
everyday, are nice to the regular customers, and actually play the
games. The newly hired house players, generally speaking, are not just
seat warmers or rocks, they are actual players who are competent and
actively playing to win. The normal top section games are now spread
everyday, they are not overly tight, and there is no collusion or team
play.
Word has spread around town and over the last 6 months, the Hustler
top section games have become healthy and have been growing slowly but
steadily.
Under Yosh, the collection policy has been changed to increase the
drop without increasing the hourly rate-the treatment of new players,
the collection in newly spread games, the definition of a live board
etc. were all altered to increase the drop. IMHO, this seems like a
fair deal. Players are paying a slightly higher effective collection
but they have gotten an improvement in the quality, broadly defined,
of the games.
Management under Yosh has been excellent and the quantity and quality
of the Hustler's top section shows it.
Now enter the jackpot drop.
What are the effects of a jackpot drop?
The first effect is to effectively increase the collection. If 30
hands are played per hour, $30 in extra collection is taken. In a
$20-$40 with a $14 per hour collection this an extra $3.33 per player
per hour-an increase of 24%. In a $15-$30 HE, the same jackpot
increase the effective collection by a whopping 37%!
While it is true that some of this money gets returned to the players
in the form of jackpots, some of the money also gets "lost" by the
casino. Of the remaining money that is paid back in jackpots, a good
percentage of it is lost to the IRS. If a $50,000 jackpot is hit,
depending on the income bracket of the winners, 25-48% of the money
will be paid in taxes and be lost from the poker economy.
The second and more important effect is that the money placed into
play by the players is redistributed randomly rather than according to
the skill of the players.
To see this effect take an extreme case where everyday nine players
come to the casino everyday and buy in $500 in a $20-$40 HE game but
as a condition of play $100 is taken from each player and given out in
a random lottery every 6 months. The effect of the jackpot in this
extreme case is to make it impossible for the positive expectation
players to play with a positive expectation. No matter how skillfully
he plays he will not be a long term winner unless he "gets lucky" and
wins the jackpot.
While it may be true that someone is still going home a winner, the
jackpot drop has made it impossible for the positive expectation
player to win. It is true that in a 6 month period there will be one
winner and a bunch of losers but what the jackpot has done is turn a
game were a skilled player can win into a simple lottery.
This type of situation is always available in the California games
side of the cardroom but you don't see many regular top section poker
players giving their money away playing Pai Gow tiles-they are
intelligent and know better.
If you factor in the drain from paying taxes on jackpots and the
casino's skim from the jackpot pool, it entirely possible for the
jackpot to make every player a guaranteed loser.
Of course, when this happens, the regular players will take their
business to another cardroom where there is no jackpot drop, the games
will be become short, then sporadically spread, and the next thing you
know the cardroom has lost it's action and the cardroom manager will
be fired.
Cardroom management may think regular players are too stupid or
gambling addicted to realize the effect of the jackpot drop but they
are sorely mistaken. The cardroom regulars, the ones who keep the
games going daily, are mostly educated and informed gamblers. They
know which games in the casino are good, which are bad, and what their
general prospects are. The cardroom regulars will not put their money
in action everyday in a negative expectation game. If an alternative
exists they will vote with their feet and abandon the cardroom that
thinks otherwise. Once the regulars desert a cardroom, the games
become short, then break, and you have the Bike Top Section.
The only conclusions that can drawn from the Hustler's decision to
institute a jackpot drop in the yellow chip games is that they don't
really understand the business they are in or suffer under the false
illusion that most top section poker players are moronic unaware
gambling addicts who mindlessly drive to the nearest casino and plop
down their money in whatever crappy game the casino chooses to spread.
In a competitive market, like the poker market in SoCal, the market
punishes badly run businesses and I predict this is exactly what will
happen to the Hustler top section----if the yellow chip jackpot drop
is not abandoned.
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"The players are beginning to leach away, the Hustlers action is
suffering, and the games are beginning to evaporate.
When the games break the Hustler management will be sitting there
surveying an empty room, and will either have chagrined expressions
beacuse they thought they were being clever and got caught or they
will have blank dopey expressions because they failed to understand
the delicate balance of forces that keeps the bigger games going and
healthy, messed with those forces, and got burned.
These expressions won't last long because when this transpires, they
will get fired just like Stan (the first Hustler cardroom mananger)
and Craig (the second Hustler cardroom mananger). "
It's not too late for Hustler managment to admit their mistake and
deep six the jackpot drop. It is an experiment that has proven to be a
failure. There is no sound business rationale for Hustler management
to stubbornly refuse to admit they were wrong.
Pride goeth before the fall.
Hustler management should give up the jackpot drop in the yellow chip
games and start trying to get their old customers to come back.
It's not too late.
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MrBob
speed...@yahoo.com (Speed Racer) wrote:
> The Hustler has eliminated the jackpot drop in it's yellow chip games.
SNiP
> You have only to look at the
> recent history of the HPC and Bike top sections to see cardrooms that
> were managed poorly, lost their players, and now are struggling at
> great cost and unsuccessfully to get them back.
SNiP
Excellent post. I have only one question - what killed the Bike's top
section? Right now they have the lowest drop in town and free food in
the top section, has this always been the case? (OK - two questions).
The smaller drop, combined with the January $90 + 5/hour over 30 hours,
is making me think long and hard why I should play at Commerce or HPC.
MrBob
Speed Racer
regular players.
You can read about their problems in various RGP posts. An excerpt is
included below.
BTW, the prop problem described below no longer exists at the Bike.
When a player shows up, the floorman promptly pulls the props from the
game to give the player a seat, and the floormen are much more
aggressive in starting must move games with the props and new players.
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Orignally posted: 2002-02-26 13:04:36 PST
The Bike $40-$80 HE is dying/dead from similar problems.
Everyday the props, secret and open, start the game around 1PM. As the
afternoon progresses the regular paying customers show up.
If the floorman could control the props there would be no problem. As
the regular paying customers showed up, the props would give up their
seats, and the game would get going. This would be transparent to the
regular paying customers and require the regular paying customer make
no special effort.
If some of the regular paying customers quit, the props would fill the
seats until more regular paying customers showed up.
Everything is copacetic. The game is started, the regular paying
customers get seats when they arrive, and the game is maintained when
it would otherwise go short and break. The regular paying customers
know the game is going to be there everyday and they are going to get
a seat in an expeditious manner. Playing is pleasant, hassle-free, and
the game has a chance of growing to more than 1 table as it attracts
more regular players.
The problems arise because the Bike uses a mix of secret/open props
and the floorman cannot force the secret/open props to give up their
seats for the regular paying customers.
Problems also arise because the regular paying customers do not know
which props are open and which are secret and what the difference
between them is.
What happens in the Bike $40-$80 is that:
1) When the game is good, the secret and open props don't want to give
up their seats so the regular paying customers end up driving to the
Bike where there is only one game at that limit, the game is good and
going, but they end up sitting for an hour or more waiting for a seat
when there are 3 or more secret/open props in the game. If they know
there are props in the game, they are justifiably pissed.
2) When the game is bad, the secret and open props are more than happy
to give up their seats to the regular paying customers. The astute
regular paying customers now realize that if they drive to the Bike
they are only be able to get in the game when it is bad and are locked
out when it is good. They are justifiably pissed.
At the Bike $40-$80 HE, it is not uncommon for regular paying
customers to show up, the game is going and good, there are 3 props in
the game, they wait for an hour or more for a seat to open, no seat
opens, none of the props want to give up their seat, and the regular
paying customer leaves the casino--never getting in the game.
Of course, with the Commerce right down the street, one or two
episodes like this and the regular paying customer decides to avoid
the frustration and just drive directly to the Commerce and avoid the
Bike altogether.
3) The system also creates a perception problem for the non-regular
paying customers. They show up and don't know which props are secret
(and don't have to give up their seats if the floorman asks) and which
props are open (and do have to give up their seats).
The non-regular paying customer shows up, puts his name on the list,
and waits for a seat to open. He doesn't know to ask the floorman to
ask the prop to give up his seat, and, of course, when the game is
good, the prop does not volunteer to get up. The non-regular paying
customer sits there like a dummy. Of course later when he figures out
what has happened he is not happy.
The non-regular paying customer might show up on a different day and
sees a prop being forced to give up their seat to a regular paying
customer who is "in the know." The non-regular paying customer now
feels slighted because he feels correctly that all players are not
treated the same. This player will never become a regular if he thinks
he is being slighted.
Over time, the Bike $40-$80 HE game has lost all of its' players.
The players who would show up everyday, can't get in the game when it
is good or have to go through the hassle of asking the floorman or
host for a "favor. " i.e. asking the floorman or host to force one of
props out of the game. This is unpleasant, requires juicing the floor,
and creates a hostile dynamic between the props and the regular
players.
When you are playing against the props everyday and you do this when
the game is good, the props get mad at you. This creates a hostile
environment. Who would voluntarily play under such conditions when
the Commerce is right down the street?
The players in the lower limit games who would like to take a shot in
a bigger game when the game is good, are locked out by the props who
won't or don't have to give up their seats.
The walk-in player who sees the game being spread, sharks the game,
and decides to play also gets locked out by the props who won't or
don't have to give up their seats.
The game has no chance to bring in occasional players and the
occasional players who do get in never become regular players.
The props are happy because they get to select the games they play in
and are not forced out when the game is good so their earn is higher,
but the whole reason that the casino hired the props for in the first
place is never achieved.
The game never grows and eventually dies.
This is exactly what is happpening to the Bike $40-$80.
Lou Krieger
news:3e1c4e96...@mammoth.usenet-access.com...
BTW, the prop problem described below no longer exists at the Bike. When a
player shows up, the floorman promptly pulls the props from the game to give
the player a seat. <<
Pulling props from a game is not as black and white a situation as it may
appear. Props aren't shills, they're playing on their own money and unless
they get an opportunity to play in some good games as well as bad ones, it's
tough to keep a stable of props on hand for those times they are really
needed.
I don't think there's a simple answer to this. Never pulling props from
games is obviously a bad practice, but so is always pulling them. There are
a lot of judgments that have to be made to keep customers happy as well as
keeping props satisfied with their working conditions. I've never worked as
a prop, nor have I ever been a casino employee, though it's certainly clear
to me that this issue is not one that's easily solved nor an issue that
lends itself to a formulaic approach.
FWIW, I'd like to hear Rick Nebiolo chime in on this subject. He has worked
as a prop, is very articulate on subjects of poker management, and if his
opinion differed from mine, I'd probably defer to it.
Lou Krieger
Speed Racer
At the Bike, there are not many games going and frequently only a
single table of each game at each limit.
It is bad business for regular players to come in and have to wait a
long time while several props are in the game. It piques the regular
players and makes them patronize the bigger cardrooms where there are
multiple games e.g. Commerce.
If pulling the props reduces their earn so much they cannot survive,
it is better for the cardroom to increase their hourly wage as a
solution. Otherwise, the games will break and nobody, including the
props, will be earning anything.
The prop pulling issue may be more complicated at a larger room
spreading multiple games at each limit.
Patrick B. O'Malley
buddy of mine was coming into town and wanted to play live poker. I prefer
on line these days but gave it a shot.
I was looking forward to the 10/20 game. Well, I got there at 8pm and the
game was already broken. I guess it had gone under about an hour before. I
jumped in the 8/16 hold em game 5 handed until my name was called for the
20/40 game. When my name was called, the 8/16 game broke as well. 20/40
game was great action and I booked a typical $500 win in a half hour.
Action was very slow in the top section. Bike looked very nice, clean, hi
class. Maybe I just picked a slow night for the action.
"Speed Racer" <speed...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:3e1c6cc9...@mammoth.usenet-access.com...
david
was so slow, just one 20-40 holdem and another stud game I think.
It seems to me that their promotion didn't work well.
"Patrick B. O'Malley" <pbo.cop@(nospam)verizon.net> wrote in message
news:Jl0T9.6662$db....@nwrddc04.gnilink.net...
MrBob
<Lv0T9.101747$hK4.8...@bgtnsc05-news.ops.worldnet.att.net>,
"david" <da...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> I went Bike last Sat. night when it was supposed busy, but the top section
> was so slow, just one 20-40 holdem and another stud game I think.
> It seems to me that their promotion didn't work well.
>
Give the promotion time - I went for the first time on Monday evening,
liked what I saw, and went back Tuesday evening. On Monday evening the
10-20 went until 1:17, and the 20-40 went until 6:12. Last night there
was no 10-20 when I showed at 10:30, but the 20-40 went until at least
until I left at 6:05.
MrBob
Rick Nebiolo
wrote:
>>> "Speed Racer" <speed...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
>news:3e1c4e96...@mammoth.usenet-access.com...
>
>BTW, the prop problem described below no longer exists at the Bike. When a
>player shows up, the floorman promptly pulls the props from the game to give
>the player a seat. <<
>
>Pulling props from a game is not as black and white a situation as it may
>appear. Props aren't shills, they're playing on their own money and unless
>they get an opportunity to play in some good games as well as bad ones, it's
>tough to keep a stable of props on hand for those times they are really
>needed.
[Note: This should have posted several hours ago, but somehow got
hung up in my Agent Outbox.]
This is a very good point. It is tough to keep a staff of quality
props (Quick definition: reliable props who are fun to play with, who
play ethically, and who give reasonable action.) if they are too often
put in prop-on-prop-on-prop-on-prop "gladiator fests" and are never
allowed to play in a full game. The best ones usually quit first.
>I don't think there's a simple answer to this. Never pulling props from
>games is obviously a bad practice, but so is always pulling them.
The Bike uses a system that tries to provide a fair balance. For
example, during the day in top section, the floorman will often keep
one or two props in a main game 20/40 holdem and two props in the must
move game. So the main game will sometimes have seven customers and
two props while the must move might have two or thee props and five
customers. This is better OVERALL than a main game with all customers
and a must move with three customers and four or five props.
Eventually, all props are removed when there are enough customers but
the props get to play a little in a full game.
Note that the Bike's top section props are in most cases "action
players" who most knowledgeable customers like to play with. That
doesn't mean there are not props that may have problems with behavior
and so on (that we are of course working to solve), but in general, we
have a good staff IMO.
>There are
>a lot of judgments that have to be made to keep customers happy as well as
>keeping props satisfied with their working conditions. I've never worked as
>a prop, nor have I ever been a casino employee, though it's certainly clear
>to me that this issue is not one that's easily solved nor an issue that
>lends itself to a formulaic approach.
Among a host of nebulous duties, I manage the mid level props (3/6 to
8/16) in addition to assisting Robert "Chip Burner" Turner with
administrative matters regarding top section props. This doesn't
include my well-documented (on RGP and 2+2) unofficial duties annoying
my supervisors in my quest to provide fair collections and rake (and
especially eliminate or reduce "front loading" i.e., taking full
collections from small pots - which I maintain ultimately would
improve profits).
For the Royal Section (8-16 to 4-8) props, I'm currently working
toward developing new work rules that provide the props a fair shot at
making a living. At the same time, they must provide value to the
casino while keeping most customers happy. For example, if three
props help start a game I want no more than one to remain after the
game develops a board. But that one prop can still be pulled if he is
needed to start a game elsewhere (if no other props are available). I
especially don't want to see the prop on prop on prop fests discussed
above. Especially at the lower limits, this is bad for the props, bad
for customers, and obviously bad for the casino.
Not so quick story regarding misuse of props: I once worked as a top
section prop in another casino. I would come in at 7:00 a.m. and
inevitably join a short handed 20/40 game with four graveyard props
and about two customers. One day the game breaks at 8:00 a.m. and the
graveyard props still have an hour to work. Usually they would fill
in the smaller games as needed. But this day the small games were
full. So the shift manager, probably in an effort to make his or her
shift look busier that day, calls down a second 3/6 holdem game with
two people on the board (obviously, there are not many customers
milling about at 8:00 a.m.). The five 20/40 props sit down along with
a couple low limit props. One customer swings by, looks at the
lineup, laughs, and passes on the game. The other customer, who I
hadn't seen before, sits down. The game was collected with a $3 dead
drop on the button. The action for most hands goes prop folds, prop
folds, prop folds, customer calls, prop folds, prop folds, prop in big
blind checks. Post flop there is no action and $3 is dropped on a $6
pot. Alternatively, the action goes prop folds, prop folds, customer
limps, prop raises, and all others fold. The customer's dominated
hand had no chance. Once again, there is a $3 drop on small pot.
After 30 minutes of this the customer looks around, wonders what kind
of game she is in, gets up, walks out the door, and is never seen
again. Meanwhile, all the props are pissed that they spent time in a
game that had no chance of building (too many props, not enough
customers that early in the day). Repeat this and similar incidents a
few times and the best props eventually quit. But the shift manager
was able to note that he or she had one more game that day. The shift
manager wins, and the casino and customers lose.
>FWIW, I'd like to hear Rick Nebiolo chime in on this subject. He has worked
>as a prop, is very articulate on subjects of poker management, and if his
>opinion differed from mine, I'd probably defer to it.
I'd do more "chiming" but today is my chore day. But I'll be back
online tonight :).
Regards,
Rick
ADV Beth
This shift manager must have learned casino management philosophy at
Bay 101; their rule of thumb is that props should never be sitting
(out of a game) while on the clock. So we would regularly have
five-seven props and one customer in the lone Omaha game, even if this
would cause the lone stud game to bust, because the shift manager
insisted that the Omaha game keep going at all costs. I never saw
such short-sighted management decisions as when I worked there (Bay
101)! In close to a year of propping *graveyard* there, I probably
had only a total of 8 hours (at the most) away from a game. In the
end, I couldn't beat the drop...if I put the "drop reimbursement" back
in my bankroll, I would have just broken even. Of course, I also may
not be a good enough player.
(This doesn't even touch the Bay 101 philosophy of 100% tolerance in
regards to player behavior, even players who tell dealers that they
are "f*ckin' whores" for missing a draw! Ah, the memories...)
ADV Beth, who found Rick's discussion about props to be very
interesting