OT - How to fix "The Problem"
Too_Many_Tools
fix "The Problem".
Here is a story about how the Obama Administration is approaching it.
TMT
Financial overhaul bill gets wary reception
By JIM KUHNHENN and ANNE FLAHERTY, Associated Press Writers Jim
Kuhnhenn And Anne Flaherty, Associated Press Writers
Thu Oct 29, 6:30 pm ET
WASHINGTON – An Obama administration plan to dissolve large,
struggling financial firms rather than bail them out is encountering
Republican resistance, Democratic doubts and only qualified support
from regulators.
At a House Financial Services hearing Thursday, lawmakers from both
parties worried that the proposal would give regulators and the
executive branch unprecedented power.
"I'm not a man that fears this administration or you," Rep. Paul
Kanjorski, D-Pa., told Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. "But I do
fear the accumulation of power exercised by someone in the future that
can be extraordinary."
Others argue that by singling out financial firms important to the
economy, the government could inevitably set itself up to bail them
out, and that even dismantling rather than rescuing them would take
taxpayer money.
"Apparently, the `too big to fail' model is too hard to kill," quipped
Republican Rep. Ed Royce of California.
Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., called the bill "TARP on steroids,"
referring to the government's $700 billion Wall Street rescue fund.
"You've got permanent, unlimited bailout authority," he told Geithner.
Geithner disagreed.
"The only authority we would have would be to manage their failure,"
he told the committee.
The debate comes as Congress works on legislation to respond to the
financial crisis that clobbered Wall Street last year and fed the
recession.
For the committee's chairman, Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., who wrote
the proposal in close coordination with Treasury, the broad skepticism
illustrates the delicate work needed to tackle such a big task.
The legislation would let federal regulators identify and monitor big
financial firms and step in to wind them down before they collapse. If
the government must use taxpayer money to dissolve a company, Treasury
would recoup those costs by imposing a fee on firms with assets of at
least $10 billion.
When to create such a fund has become a significant point of
contention.
Frank and the administration recommended that any taxpayer infusion be
recovered after the fact from large institutions.
But Sheila Bair, the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.,
which would conduct such a wind down, said the industry should pay
into an insurance-like fund ahead of time. Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-
Ill., and AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka pressed for a similar
structure.
Large financial firms, however, oppose an up-front payment. And
Geithner said a prepaid fund would increase the temptation — or "moral
hazard" — for companies to take excessive risks with the expectation
that the government will step in to protect them.
"We don't want to create that expectation," Geithner said.
A key element of the proposal would assemble a council of regulators
to identify large institutions whose businesses and transactions are
so intertwined that their collapse would damage the economy.
The legislation envisions keeping the list of those firms secret,
though Geithner acknowledged that existing disclosure requirements
would make it hard to hide their identities.
The Federal Reserve would have additional powers to oversee those
institutions and, if necessary, step in and regulate them.
Comptroller of the Currency John C. Dugan said that additional power
the legislation would give the Fed could result in less effective
banking standards and undermine the role of other bank regulators.
The FDIC, which currently oversees smaller insured depository
institutions, could dissolve large failing institutions — an authority
it now only holds over banks.
Regulators were powerless last year when investment bank Lehman
Brothers and insurance giant American International Group neared
collapse.
The government let Lehman Brothers fail, helping trigger the worst
financial crisis in seven decades as nervous investors withdrew funds
from money markets and credit lines froze. When it came to AIG, the
Bush administration decided to swoop in with a hefty government
bailout. Frank and Geithner said the latest proposal would prevent the
government from having to decide between doing nothing and a costly
rescue.
"Without the ability for the government to step in, manage the failure
of a large firm and contain the risk of a fire spreading, we are
resigned to repeat the experience of last fall," Geithner said.
Bank representatives told lawmakers they oppose putting the FDIC in
charge of dismantling failing nonbank firms. Banks pay the FDIC to
insure deposits, and they don't want their premiums to pay for the
FDIC's new power.
"If our fund is strong and a major nonbank fails, there will be a
strong temptation to unfairly raid the bank FDIC fund to pay for it,"
said Edward Yingling, president of the American Bankers Association,
in written testimony.
Frank on Thursday also clashed on another financial regulation front.
The House Energy and Commerce Committee wants to change the governing
structure for a consumer finance protection agency that Frank's
committee had already approved.
The Financial Services Committee wants a single director to run the
agency. The energy committee on Thursday approved an amendment placing
a five-member bipartisan commission in charge.
Frank said the change "will weaken the capacity of the agency to
provide consumer protection."
F. George McDuffee
<too_man...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>I am interested in hearing your opinion as to how this Country should
>fix "The Problem".
>
>Here is a story about how the Obama Administration is approaching it.
>
>TMT
>
>
>Financial overhaul bill gets wary reception
>By JIM KUHNHENN and ANNE FLAHERTY, Associated Press Writers Jim
>Kuhnhenn And Anne Flaherty, Associated Press Writers
>Thu Oct 29, 6:30 pm ET
<snip>
It does not appear that Obama, Frank, et al. read this newsgroup,
nor do they appear to pay any attention to people that ask too
many questions/observations even when directly emailed, thus this
is an exercise in venting.
It appears that a major, albeit unannounced, change in the
operational government/governance of the United States and
several other major countries occurred in the late 80s and early
90s to the effect that while the forms of government remained the
same, the actual control is now by the major, mainly financial,
corporations.
To be sure, during the current economic contraction several large
corporate players were "whacked," but Wall Street now operates in
the milieu of the godfather and not the free market.
In and of itself this change would not be a disaster, but it
appears the dons [even those that graduated from Yale or Wharton
and whose names don't end in "i"] now running the corporations
and their capos are loony tunes whack jobs.
Gangsters fighting among themselves for "rights" to certain
geographic areas and particular rackets have a long history and
have left a long trail of bodies. Lehman Brothers and AIG are
just very large and very recent ones. In this connection it is
well to remember the Vietnam era adage, "when the elephants fight
the grass gets trampled" (along with us piss ants and
anyone/thing that gets in their way).
It is clear what must be done, but it is also clear it can't be
done, short of a bloody revolution and the establishment of a
second U.S. republic.
In no particular order I suggest:
(1) Reasonable enforceable limits must enacted and enforced on
corporate political and propaganda contributions, both direct and
third party. Corporations should be heard in Washington and
their viewpoints should publicly be known, but these should never
be the only voice in Washington nor the only opinion aired, if we
are to avoid the big lie effect. [Tell a big enough lie and tell
it often enough and the people will believe it. -- J. Goebels]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Goebbels
(2) Unification of the SEC [Securities Exchange Commission] and
the CFTC [Commodity Futures Trading Commission] with banking and
other commercial financial/fiscal regulation transferred to this
new agency, with police powers the same as the FBI and DEA.
Derivative oversight and monitoring by the new agency will be
critical. Given the global extent of many corporations the
closest cooperation with ICE [Immigration and Customs
Enforcement] and the counter money laundering efforts of the DEA
[Drug Enforcement Agency] will be vital.
(3) Reenactment of a "super" Glass-Steagall to not only again
separate the commercial/depository banks from the "investment"
banks, but also to split the hedge funds, the pension funds, and
the mutual funds from the banks and each other. The temptation
for "self-dealing" is simply too great.
(4) Elimination of the quasi/shadow banking system. If an
organization takes deposits and lends money it's a bank, even if
the "deposits" are in the form of notes or "loans." If it
engages in interstate commerce or any significant transactions,
it must be regulated as a bank and meet the bank rules, including
FDIC insurance payments on the "deposits."
(5) The FTC [Federal Trade Commission] must have augmented
authority over consumer credit including credit cards, and
national usury laws [re]introduced and enforced. The ancient
common law provision that the interest on a debt cannot exceed
the original amount of the debt must be reintroduced and
enforced. While limiting credit can and indeed does cause
problems, not limiting credit by not limiting fees and interest
results in far more serious and protracted problems. If the
Sopranos can't do it [loan sharking], then why is it legal for
MasterCard and Visa?
(6) The biggest single item appears to be a limitation on
corporate size and market dominance. The previous items will
accomplish much toward reducing the mega-corporations to
human/manageable scale, however as a matter of public policy, it
is unreasonable to expect an organization to operate as a free
market company when a free market does not exist in their market
sector or they are so large the normal free market conditions,
namely being as free to fail as succeed, do not apply. It is
therefore necessary that both market share and absolute
[inflation adjusted] dollar volume sales/handle limits be enacted
and enforced, or where this is not practicable, then the
corporation must be treated as a public utility/monopoly with
governmental rate setting and review of return on investment,
public board members, etc. [Two immediate candidates for this are
Wal-Mart and MicroSoft].
Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
He that will not apply new remedies,
must expect new evils:
for Time is the greatest innovator: and
if Time, of course, alter things to the worse,
and wisdom and counsel shall not alter them to the better,
what shall be the end?
Francis Bacon (1561-1626), English philosopher, essayist, statesman.
Essays, "Of Innovations" (1597-1625).
Gunner Asch
<gmcd...@mcduffee-associates.us> wrote:
>Gangsters fighting among themselves for "rights" to certain
>geographic areas and particular rackets have a long history and
>have left a long trail of bodies. Lehman Brothers and AIG are
>just very large and very recent ones. In this connection it is
>well to remember the Vietnam era adage, "when the elephants fight
>the grass gets trampled" (along with us piss ants and
>anyone/thing that gets in their way).
>
>It is clear what must be done, but it is also clear it can't be
>done, short of a bloody revolution and the establishment of a
>second U.S. republic.
Wait slightly less than 3 yrs........
"IMHO, some people here give Jeff far more attention than he deserves,
but obviously craves. The most appropriate response, and perhaps the
cruelest, IMO, is to simply killfile and ignore him. An alternative, if
you must, would be to post the same standard reply to his every post,
listing the manifold reasons why he ought to be ignored. Just my $0.02
worth."
F. George McDuffee
<gun...@NOSPAMlightspeed.net> wrote:
<snip>
>>It is clear what must be done, but it is also clear it can't be
>>done, short of a bloody revolution and the establishment of a
>>second U.S. republic.
>
>
>Wait slightly less than 3 yrs........
===========
IMNSHO very much an outside shot.
A progressive economic collapse marked by an increasing inability
to provide essential governmental services such as the courts and
public safety services [police, fire] and the maintenance of
essential pubic infrastructure such as bridges, roads and canals,
seems far more likely than any sort of rebellion. Indeed, such a
progressive slow motion collapse appears to be in progress in a
number of states and large metro areas.
Even if a violent revolt should occur, the odds are very high it
will be hijacked, if not by the people that caused it, then by
people equally opportunistic, sociopathic, megalomaniacal and
doctrinaire.
In all of recorded history only one revolution, or more exactly
colonial revolt, resulted in significant positive change for the
majority of people and this was the American Revolution. Even
then a very bloody civil war occurred within 73 years of the
establishment of the Republic. [1788-1861].
William Wixon
"F. George McDuffee" <gmcd...@mcduffee-associates.us> wrote in message
news:an3me5poec5q4a83j...@4ax.com...
that's a good one george. that i can believe. a usurper steps in. like
what hitler did. preys upon the public's instinctual fears.
b.w.
Gunner Asch
It wont be an organized Revolutiojn, but an unorganized killing of the
Leftwinger that pissed off the shooter/hanger/burner the most. Then
they will go buy a 6 pack of beer and go home and watch the TV.
And then the next guy(s) will go out and collect their Leftwinger and
repeat..and so forth and so on.
Pretty soon, the Leftwingers will be in hiding, moved out of the US, or
simply dead. And those in hiding have to come out sometime.
Its not so much as a a Revolution..as a Great Cull..killing cockroaches.
Shrug. And I will be sitting on the front porch, listening to the body
counts as they come in.
Lawyers, politicians of all levels, teachers, community activists, ACORN
members..the list is broad and large. And there is nothing anyone can
do to stop it from happening. Shrug..its been in the making since FDR
or before.
The clock is ticking.
Shrug
Gunner
Hawke
> A progressive economic collapse marked by an increasing inability
> to provide essential governmental services such as the courts and
> public safety services [police, fire] and the maintenance of
> essential pubic infrastructure such as bridges, roads and canals,
> seems far more likely than any sort of rebellion. Indeed, such a
> progressive slow motion collapse appears to be in progress in a
> number of states and large metro areas.
>
> Even if a violent revolt should occur, the odds are very high it
> will be hijacked, if not by the people that caused it, then by
> people equally opportunistic, sociopathic, megalomaniacal and
> doctrinaire.
>
> In all of recorded history only one revolution, or more exactly
> colonial revolt, resulted in significant positive change for the
> majority of people and this was the American Revolution. Even
> then a very bloody civil war occurred within 73 years of the
> establishment of the Republic. [1788-1861].
>
>
> Unka' George [George McDuffee]
The idea that there will be a revolution or even some kind of widespread
violence directed mainly against liberals is a stupid one and is only a
fantasy of nutcases on the far right. What's likely to happen is that
some reforms are going to be implemented by the Democrats to try to
prevent what happened on the republican's watch. The wisest thing to do
is to not ever let republicans get into a majority like they had under
Bush. Without the republicans in position to wreck things we have a
chance of making some improvements. We all know that the country has
been on the wrong track and we need to make some changes. Obama is
trying to do that, but as always he's opposed by entrenched special
interests both financial and business who want to do things their way.
They got what they wanted under Bush and they want to have that freedom
again. As long as Democrats are in power the corporations will see their
power curtailed. The question is how much and for how long. A lot of
George's ideas I agree with. But the main thing is the power of the
corporations to dominate the politics of the country needs to be cut
down. If that can be done we can make some progress. If they retain the
power they have now they will keep things exactly as they are and we all
lose...and they win. So it boils down to a battle between the people and
the corporations. They have had the whip hand. If that continues nothing
changes.
Hawke
F. George McDuffee
<gun...@NOSPAMlightspeed.net> wrote:
<snip>
>It wont be an organized Revolutiojn, but an unorganized killing of the
>Leftwinger that pissed off the shooter/hanger/burner the most. Then
>they will go buy a 6 pack of beer and go home and watch the TV.
>
>And then the next guy(s) will go out and collect their Leftwinger and
>repeat..and so forth and so on.
>
>Pretty soon, the Leftwingers will be in hiding, moved out of the US, or
>simply dead. And those in hiding have to come out sometime.
==============
This describes exactly the traditional "spontaneous" pogrom.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pogrom
Traditional a "spontaneous" pogrom is used by corrupt and
incompetent governments to divert popular attention and
discontent from their failure to properly administer the state,
generally perceived by the people as declining economic and
social conditions. e.g. Czarist Russia.
While pogroms have been traditionally directed against Jews,
where Jews are unavailable any identifiable minority will serve.
Some examples are the Tutsis [and Hutu political moderates] in
Rwanda, the Croatians and Moslems in Serbia/Yugoslavia, the
[Asian] Indians in Uganda, the Tamils in Sri Lanka, ethnic
Chinese in Malaysia, etc.
A frequent complement to the pogrom is the establishment of an
"official" external boogie man on which all the ills of society
can be blamed when the pogroms don't have the expected [by the
people] curative/ameliorative effect. Such an external "enemy,"
particularly in combination with the civil chaos resulting from
the pogroms, are very useful to the government to justify the
imposition of additional police/repressive measures, and these
may be welcomed by the general population. A domestic example is
the "Red Scare" of the 1920s combined with the explosive growth
of the KKK as a reaction to the growth of social progressive
movements and perceived threat to the established economic
privileges and [over] concentrations of wealth.
http://www.law.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/Saccov/redscare.html
It is well to remember that in almost all cases the minorities
targeted did not CAUSE the apparent/perceived problems, but are
generally the result of these problems and [frequently
covert/tacit] governmental policies, and the designated external
boogie man does not represent any significant national threat.
We are living in interesting times. Lets not make them even more
interesting�
Unka' George [George McDuffee]
-------------------------------------------
TinLizziedl
> The idea that there will be a revolution or even some kind of widespread
> violence directed mainly against liberals is a stupid one and is only a
> fantasy of nutcases on the far right. What's likely to happen is that
> some reforms are going to be implemented by the Democrats to try to
> prevent what happened on the republican's watch. The wisest thing to do
> is to not ever let republicans get into a majority like they had under
> Bush. Without the republicans in position to wreck things we have a
> chance of making some improvements. We all know that the country has
> been on the wrong track and we need to make some changes. Obama is
> trying to do that, but as always he's opposed by entrenched special
> interests both financial and business who want to do things their way.
> They got what they wanted under Bush and they want to have that freedom
> again. As long as Democrats are in power the corporations will see their
> power curtailed. The question is how much and for how long. A lot of
> George's ideas I agree with. But the main thing is the power of the
> corporations to dominate the politics of the country needs to be cut
> down. If that can be done we can make some progress. If they retain the
> power they have now they will keep things exactly as they are and we all
> lose...and they win. So it boils down to a battle between the people and
> the corporations. They have had the whip hand. If that continues nothing
> changes.
>
> Hawke
I like George's approach. His reminder about pogroms is also relevant
to the situation in Iran. Yes, we did intervene there decades ago, and
we're still paying for it with their demonization of America. They have
difficulty controlling/oppressing their domestic population, so they
blame all the problems on us.
In our own country, the right wing is blaming the left wing for all our
country's ills. They don't seem to realize that the bald eagle cannot
fly without both wings.
I'm not surprised at Gunner's comments. When it comes to politics, he's
just another extreme right wing doomsayer, incapable of rational,
independent thought. He'll prolly be disappointed when the world
doesn't end in 2012.
--
Tin Lizzie
"Elephant: A mouse built to government specifications."-Lazarus Long
Gunner Asch
<gmcd...@mcduffee-associates.us> wrote:
>It is well to remember that in almost all cases the minorities
>targeted did not CAUSE the apparent/perceived problems, but are
>generally the result of these problems and [frequently
>covert/tacit] governmental policies, and the designated external
>boogie man does not represent any significant national threat.
>
>We are living in interesting times. Lets not make them even more
>interesting�
Im simply reporting what will happen.
The coming Great Cull will be the end result of many decades of leftward
drift away from the Constitution and the People finally getting sick and
tired of it..and losing their homes, jobs and livelyhood.
And they will strike out, rightly or wrongly against the
Socialist/Marxist/Progressives that currently control the government.
Think of it as civil disobedience run amok..and striking back at those
most likely to have caused the nation to fall so far, so fast.
As Ive stated many times..I shall simply be sitting on the front porch,
banjo in hand, playing happy riffs as the news reports and body counts
come in.
John R. Carroll
No George, but we will likely have what is the "reasonable" alternative.
Thinking that what's gone on to date has "saved" the US economy in any
serious manner is an illusion. Dillusional, in fact.
The only thing the world was saved from was immediate and catastrophic
collapse.
Our political leaders threw away a perfectly good crisis/opportunity to act
forcefully without the voting public caring much about the carnage.
That time has passed for the moment but such a time will come again early in
2011.
Employment has never been as low as it is right now and it's going to
continue to shrink.
Capacity utilization is also continuing to decline if you add back what's
being removed permanemtly or temporarily from the pool.
The US is six percent of the labor pool away from havimg the rate hity 50.
It will. That's sort of a tipping point, in my opinion, in a consumer driven
economy.
Regional banking institutions that haven't failed are extremely weak by any
reasonably prudent standard and they will continue to weaken. Those that are
failing now aren't in trouble because they weren't prudent. They are failing
because their customers increasingly don't have the income required to repay
their debts. This is one of the direct consequences of two income families
and the encouragement they got to take on debt at the two income level.
Another is that with two incomes, there is less pressure to keep wages in
line. Rather than increase the earnings of, for instance, a Mold Maker or
Tool and Die Maker, spouses went to work. That second income has proven as
problematic in the long run as it was beneficial in the short.
America, as an economy and a country, has fewer and fewer consumers, even as
families, able to earn enough to satisfy the obligations they have, let
alone go out and consume more.
Everything you wrote beyond this point is as completely obvious as it is
impossible to get done in our system.
Reinstating G-S alone would be catastrophic in it's consequences because it
would be so complicated a migration from where we are now. That's what
Congress has to deal with and they have decided that it's to complicated a
maneuver for them to enact as law.
I agree with them.
What I think is that we'll just fall completely on our collective asses.
Rebuilding from scratch was a real advantage for FDR and it will be for
Obama and his team.
--
John R. Carroll
cavelamb
The Soviet Union fell - into chaos.
Is that what we too face?
wmbjk...@citlink.net
<gun...@NOSPAMlightspeed.net> wrote:
>It wont be an organized Revolutiojn, but an unorganized killing of the
>Leftwinger that pissed off the shooter/hanger/burner the most. Then
>they will go buy a 6 pack of beer and go home and watch the TV.
>
>And then the next guy(s) will go out and collect their Leftwinger and
>repeat..and so forth and so on.
>
>Pretty soon, the Leftwingers will be in hiding, moved out of the US, or
>simply dead. And those in hiding have to come out sometime.
>
>Its not so much as a a Revolution..as a Great Cull..killing cockroaches.
>
>Shrug. And I will be sitting on the front porch, listening to the body
>counts as they come in.
>
>Lawyers, politicians of all levels, teachers, community activists, ACORN
>members..the list is broad and large. And there is nothing anyone can
>do to stop it from happening. Shrug..its been in the making since FDR
>or before.
>
>The clock is ticking.
... very slowly, apparently. Didn't you start this fantasy revolution
nonsense back about January, and didn't you say that the carnage would
take place in 2-3 years? And didn't you say earlier today that "in
less than 3 yrs...most of you far leftwingers will be dead"? That
makes the start date about 14 months away, but it seems you've already
pushed the finish back an extra 9 months. When can we expect to see a
countdown clock, and where do you expect to find the strength to
backpeddle it?
Wayne
Andrew VK3BFA
>
> Im simply reporting what will happen.
>
> The coming Great Cull will be the end result of many decades of leftward
> drift away from the Constitution and the People finally getting sick and
> tired of it..and losing their homes, jobs and livelyhood.
>
> Gunner
>
Didn't know you could play the banjo Gunner - do you know "Joe
Hill?" A wonderful inspiring song.
But wouldn't it be simpler to just pass a law that said anyone who
loses more than, say $1 billion of investors money is put against a
wall and shot. And it would have the virtue of being politically
neutral. Its about as sane, and as likely, as the speculation here
(thanks George for pointing that out)
Nothing much will happen, there or here. The nutters of all
persuasions will rant, blaming everyone, and refusing to take any
personal responsibility. Civilisation will gradually wind down, until
it degenerates into anarchy and tribal camps, while people still
insist that "someone else does something"
The armed thugs, presiding over the ruins of civilisation, will
finally get their vindication, unaware that the civilisation they
despised so much has kept them alive to date. (boy, are they in for a
shock when the beer/ammo runs out!)
Yes indeed, we do live in interesting times..
Andrew VK3BFA.
Gunner Asch
While your version may be true in your neck of the woods..it wont happen
in America.
John R. Carroll
Not really.
The Soviet Union, as a nation, failed because they were bankrupt - as in not
solvent.
No thinking analyst or economist anywhere in the world would tell you that
America, the Nation, is financially bankrupt.
Our financial services sector, on the other hand, is, or is becoming,
exactly that.
America, as a Nation, has tremendous reserves of real wealth and capital. A
significant fraction af what is in existence in the world.
America, as a Nation, is solvent as well as liquid. Our liquidity is the
result of the Dollar being the worlds reserve currency.
There are NO circumstances under which any thinking analyst or economist
anywhere in the world would tell you that America's financial services and
Banking industry is solvent when fairly valued. What they will say in
response to the "fairly valued" bromide is
"Well sure - if you want to use fair valuations. Of Course!".
LOL
There is only one reason not to use fair valuation. I think you can figure
out what that reason is and who, or whom, is interested in ignoring it.
--
John R. Carroll
Gunner Asch
wrote:
The world nor America wont end in 2012. A certain segment of US society
will be killed off, and the nation will be in a certain amount of
turmoil for a short while, but it will hardly end. In fact..it will come
out of the Cull much stronger and wiser.
Shrug..but hey..believe as you chose.
The other alternative of course is the nation breaking up into Red and
Blue nations. And since most of the ag and raw materials come from Red
America..the Blue nation will slowly starve to death until it breaks up
into squabling nation/states and is later reconqured by the Red
States..but many many years later.
Shrug..I dont feel either is a bad thing, but a renewal of America and a
return to its Constitutional default settings. Something Im rather
looking forwards to actually.
And it wont be every Leftwinger thats killed..just the majority of th
far leftwing extremists. That could hardly be a bad thing.
Gunner
F. George McDuffee
<nu...@bidness.dev.nul> wrote:
<snip>
>> It is clear what must be done, but it is also clear it can't be
>> done, short of a bloody revolution and the establishment of a
>> second U.S. republic.
>
>No George, but we will likely have what is the "reasonable" alternative.
>Thinking that what's gone on to date has "saved" the US economy in any
>serious manner is an illusion. Dillusional, in fact.
>The only thing the world was saved from was immediate and catastrophic
>collapse.
=======
Much of this depends on your perception of the reality of
government.
You appear to be correct in your observation that the only thing
the "rescue" programs have accomplished was the immediate and
total economic collapse (which may be justification enough). As
you observe, unemployment continues to increase and the
commercial real estate bubble is beginning to explode bringing
down the regional and local banks that financed much of the
commercial expansion.
IMNSHO the corporations have captured the U.S. government and
they ain't letting go. What is now causing the "problems," other
than those staged as diversion and entertainment for the masses,
stems from the fact that there are several groups of
corporations, with divergent interests. For example, some groups
with extensive foreign operations benefit from a weak U.S. dollar
while a strong, even overvalued, US dollar is in the interest of
other, primarily financial groups, with U.S. dollar denominated
assets.
It appears that the financial and traditional heavy industries
such as automotive and mining/refining have captured the
Republican party while the new industries such as information
technology, biomedical technology, etc. have captured the
Democrats. Thus you are seeing the corporate blocs using the
nominal political parties as surrogates in their power struggles
to set governmental policy.
This is not a new insight, but an old method/technique of
socio-economic macro analysis called "interest group analysis."
While this methodology appears to have always been useful in the
more centeralized/oligaricial economies, it does not appear to
have been particularly useful in the U.S. until the mid to late
90s when the corporate takeover of the U.S. government became
significant.
If this of interest a google search on <"interest group
analysis"> produces about 66k hits. As is increasingly common it
appears most of the articles and applications are from other
countries. This reinforces my perception that the national U.S.
motto is "don't confuse me with the facts -- my mind is made up."
cavelamb
>
>> The armed thugs, presiding over the ruins of civilisation, will
>> finally get their vindication, unaware that the civilisation they
>> despised so much has kept them alive to date. (boy, are they in for a
>> shock when the beer/ammo runs out!)
>>
>> Yes indeed, we do live in interesting times..
>>
>> Andrew VK3BFA.
>
>
> While your version may be true in your neck of the woods..it wont happen
> in America.
>
> Shrug
>
It's already happening here.
Check out Detroit
Ed Huntress
"cavelamb" <cave...@earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:M6ydnSWmtfudMnbX...@earthlink.com...
Heard about Houston? Heard about Detroit?
Heard about Pittsburgh, PA?
You oughta know not to stand by the window
Somebody see you up there
I got some groceries, some peanut butter
To last a couple of days
But I ain't got no speakers, ain't got no headphones
Ain't got no records to play
dum, dum...
Heard of a van that is loaded with weapons
Packed up and ready to go
Heard of some gravesites out by the highway
A place where nobody knows
The sound of gunfire off in the distance
I'm getting used to it now
Lived in a brownstone, lived in a ghetto
I've lived all over this town...
Gunner's dream!
--
Ed Huntress
William Wixon
"Ed Huntress" <hunt...@optonline.net> wrote in message
news:4aebb148$0$4999$607e...@cv.net...
my god ed i can't believe an old far.. guy.. like you is quoting "talking
heads"!
(jeez, here i am thinking that's modern, that came out in '79, prolly would
be considered "oldies" now huh?)
b.w.
Ed Huntress
"William Wixon" <wwi...@frontiernet.net> wrote in message
news:FHOGm.1809$CK3....@newsfe12.iad...
Hey, I'm not *that* old. I was only 31 in 1979. In fact, I used to go to
CBGB's. But I never saw the Heads there. (I did sit next to Blondie (Debbie
Harry) on the Sixth Avenue subway once, though. Does that count?)
I think we should all be aware of Gunner's wartime anthem:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGoEcIEv3_Y&feature=related
For the wackos who think we're headed for a revolution it's
downright...inspirational.
--
Ed Huntress
William Wixon
OH! i thought you were in your late 70's! oops.
i was 20 in '79. used to go to CBGB too, but not very often.
the talking heads came to my college but my crowd were all too drunk to want
to bother to go. should've though, was just before they hit it big.
back in the 80's david byrne stood in behind me in line at a korean market
in soho. my brush with greatness.
never realized how appropriate that song is for the situation you described.
wow.
b.w.
John R. Carroll
> On Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:10:15 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
> <nu...@bidness.dev.nul> wrote:
> <snip>
>
> the "rescue" programs have accomplished was the immediate and
> total economic collapse (which may be justification enough). As
> you observe, unemployment continues to increase
It isn't the increases in the unemployed that are troubling.
What's bad, and beyond a point can't be recovered from, is the decreasing
percentage of the adult population on a payroll.
There is a difference. You might not have considered it but yuo certainly
understand.
We are now well beyond the point where a recovery can come organically from
the private sector.
The numbers just don't work, especially if you consider changes in things
like the savings rate and the efect on consumption.
> and the
> commercial real estate bubble is beginning to explode bringing
> down the regional and local banks that financed much of the
> commercial expansion.
I don't attribute the significance to this that you do.
Not in terms of the future of the American economy. Those bank failures
impact the shareholders but not depositors and any business they were doing
gets done by the survivor/purchaser.
In the long run, it's a self licking ice cream cone because the banks pay
premiums for just this eventuality.
That the FDIC/FSLIC might run short of cash isn't anything but a short term
issue that Congress and thr Federal Reserve can, and will deal with.
>
> IMNSHO the corporations have captured the U.S. government and
> they ain't letting go. What is now causing the "problems," other
> than those staged as diversion and entertainment for the masses,
> stems from the fact that there are several groups of
> corporations, with divergent interests. For example, some groups
> with extensive foreign operations benefit from a weak U.S. dollar
> while a strong, even overvalued, US dollar is in the interest of
> other, primarily financial groups, with U.S. dollar denominated
> assets.
>
> It appears that the financial and traditional heavy industries
> such as automotive and mining/refining have captured the
> Republican party while the new industries such as information
> technology, biomedical technology, etc. have captured the
> Democrats. Thus you are seeing the corporate blocs using the
> nominal political parties as surrogates in their power struggles
> to set governmental policy.
>
> This is not a new insight, but an old method/technique of
> socio-economic macro analysis called "interest group analysis."
> While this methodology appears to have always been useful in the
> more centeralized/oligaricial economies, it does not appear to
> have been particularly useful in the U.S. until the mid to late
> 90s when the corporate takeover of the U.S. government became
> significant.
Not new but in the current circumstance, 30 years behind the curve.
One of the interesting and unintended consequences of the health care debate
is that 73 percent of the population of the US has become convinced that
corporate America really doesn't have the peep's best interests at heart at
all.
Corporate America, in fact, is beginning to suffer the consequences of GW
Bush disease. They aren't believed even when they speak the absolute and
unvarnished truth.
That isn't something that can be recovered from except through catharsis.
Americans currently have little faith in their Congress but it's interesting
to note the plunge in that same measure when business leaders are concerned.
It's results, good and bad, that really form opinion George, and they are.
--
John R. Carroll
Ed Huntress
Jeez, don't wish my life away.
> i was 20 in '79. used to go to CBGB too, but not very often.
> the talking heads came to my college but my crowd were all too drunk to
> want to bother to go.
Hah! That almost happened to me when The Mothers of Invention came to my
college. They were just getting started, and I wasn't going to miss it, but
my roomies were too loaded to care. I went alone.
My hearing took a long time to recover, BTW. I stood right in front of Black
Death, which was Zappa's refrigerator-sized speaker set.
> ...should've though, was just before they hit it big.
> back in the 80's david byrne stood in behind me in line at a korean market
> in soho. my brush with greatness.
> never realized how appropriate that song is for the situation you
> described. wow.
>
> b.w.
I think of it every time I hear one of the twisted sisters here talk about
the impending revolution.
--
Ed Huntress
F. George McDuffee
<cave...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>> While your version may be true in your neck of the woods..it wont happen
>> in America.
>>
>> Shrug
>>
>
>It's already happening here.
>
>Check out Detroit
========
This being an international group it is a good idea to include
URLs where possible.
For the Detroit Free Press which is the big liberal paper in
Detroit goto http://www.freep.com/ The conservative paper is the
Detroit News see http://detnews.com/
FWIW -- both papers appear to be about the same with possibly a
few different columnists/oped ed writers.
In addition to the social/political news [which may make your
blood run cold] both papers have considerable information about
the U.S. auto industry and their suppliers [which may also make
your blood run cold].
Detroit had over 2 million residents at the height of the
domestic U.S. auto boom in the 60s. They are now down to c. 900
thousand in a metro area built for 2mm. One of their major
problems is the [futile] attempt to maintain public services and
fatalities [and graft] at the 2mm level, even as the producers
and taxpayers continue to depart in droves.
Most unfortunately, Detroit does not appear to be unique in any
way, just first. Other major metro areas such as Chicago do not
appear to be far behind.
Gunner Asch
<wwi...@frontiernet.net> wrote:
>> I think we should all be aware of Gunner's wartime anthem:
>>
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGoEcIEv3_Y&feature=related
>>
>> For the wackos who think we're headed for a revolution it's
>> downright...inspirational.
Actually...my anthem is somewhat different.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbwBahAh4Ps&feature=related
cavelamb
Which, unfortunately, bring me back around to my original question.
Is this the future?
F. George McDuffee
============
If the trend lines continue it is, and not just in the major U.S.
metro areas. For one example see
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091031/ap_on_fe_st/us_odd_just_move;_ylt=AqAgR7yeO6b_59VtElNdwJbtiBIF;_ylu=X3oDMTJoNmZuZzA5BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMDkxMDMxL3VzX29kZF9qdXN0X21vdmUEY3BvcwMxBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcnkEc2xrA2NyaW1lLXdlYXJ5bw--
John Carroll's observation about there being a tipping point for
employment is of particular concern in this context. As there
has been a gross change in the U.S. economy to largely
[financial] service no one knows what that tipping point is, nor
how close we are.
This problem is further aggravated by the official "pencil
whipped" numbers that ignore under employment [hours and over
qualification] and remove people from the unemployment
calculations when their unemployment compensation payments run
out because they are no longer actively looking for work.
The only thing the 800 billion $US TARP package and other
measures bought the people of the U.S. was a *LITTLE* time, which
the governmental and business leaders appear determined to waste.
FWIW -- a shortage or even the disappearance of financial
capital, while very disturbing/disruptive, is not necessarily a
disaster or catastrophe. If a society has reasonable amounts of
intellectual, ethical, social, etc. capital, the financial
capital pool can be quickly replenished or restored. On the
other hand, a deficit in the supply of intellectual, ethical,
social, etc. capital is extremely difficult to overcome, may take
generations to accomplish, and even if a pool of financial
capital exists, it quickly disappears with an intellectual,
ethical, social, etc. capital deficit. This is what makes
another of John Carroll's observations about the creation of a
credibility deficit for the U,S. political and industrial
leadership so critical and applicable in this situation.
Andrew VK3BFA
Gunner, admit it. You cant REALLY play the banjo, can you.
Andrew VK3BFA.
F. George McDuffee
<nu...@bidness.dev.nul> wrote:
>F. George McDuffee wrote:
>> On Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:10:15 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
>> <nu...@bidness.dev.nul> wrote:
>> <snip>
>>
>> You appear to be correct in your observation that the only thing
>> the "rescue" programs have accomplished was the immediate and
>> total economic collapse (which may be justification enough). As
>> you observe, unemployment continues to increase
>
>It isn't the increases in the unemployed that are troubling.
>What's bad, and beyond a point can't be recovered from, is the decreasing
>percentage of the adult population on a payroll.
>There is a difference. You might not have considered it but yuo certainly
>understand.
This is a very good point and one everyone should consider. With
the gross change of the U.S. economy away from heavy industry and
mass production to a [financial] service based economy no one
knows what that tipping point is not how close to it we are. The
"pencil whipped" official unemployment numbers/rates are of
little use and only serve to make the government officials feel
better.
>
>We are now well beyond the point where a recovery can come organically from
>the private sector.
>The numbers just don't work, especially if you consider changes in things
>like the savings rate and the efect on consumption.
One of the problems is that the private sectors [manufacturing]
that should be booming and leading the recover are indeed doing
so, but are now located in China.
>
>> and the
>> commercial real estate bubble is beginning to explode bringing
>> down the regional and local banks that financed much of the
>> commercial expansion.
>
>I don't attribute the significance to this that you do.
>Not in terms of the future of the American economy. Those bank failures
>impact the shareholders but not depositors and any business they were doing
>gets done by the survivor/purchaser.
>In the long run, it's a self licking ice cream cone because the banks pay
>premiums for just this eventuality.
>That the FDIC/FSLIC might run short of cash isn't anything but a short term
>issue that Congress and thr Federal Reserve can, and will deal with.
In the long run we are all dead anyhow. Its the short run that
is of concern. Many of the commercial real estate mortgages were
used to back CDOs which are now going sour just as the
alt-a/subprime backed CDOs did. By itself, this will be a huge
hit, but there are large numbers of derivatives based on these
CDOs, thus the high, i.e. excessive, leverage works just as well
to amplify the losses as the gains. For example see
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoRYl03Rw1_g
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDY0DAlVpb6M
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aEfyyJXNfGxE
>
>>
>> IMNSHO the corporations have captured the U.S. government and
>> they ain't letting go. What is now causing the "problems," other
>> than those staged as diversion and entertainment for the masses,
>> stems from the fact that there are several groups of
>> corporations, with divergent interests. For example, some groups
>> with extensive foreign operations benefit from a weak U.S. dollar
>> while a strong, even overvalued, US dollar is in the interest of
>> other, primarily financial groups, with U.S. dollar denominated
>> assets.
>>
>> It appears that the financial and traditional heavy industries
>> such as automotive and mining/refining have captured the
>> Republican party while the new industries such as information
>> technology, biomedical technology, etc. have captured the
>> Democrats. Thus you are seeing the corporate blocs using the
>> nominal political parties as surrogates in their power struggles
>> to set governmental policy.
>>
>> This is not a new insight, but an old method/technique of
>> socio-economic macro analysis called "interest group analysis."
>> While this methodology appears to have always been useful in the
>> more centeralized/oligaricial economies, it does not appear to
>> have been particularly useful in the U.S. until the mid to late
>> 90s when the corporate takeover of the U.S. government became
>> significant.
>
>Not new but in the current circumstance, 30 years behind the curve.
Only if 30 year old analysis is used. The current interest group
analysis seems to be pretty much on point and the technique is
becoming more popular.
http://psweb.sbs.ohio-state.edu/faculty/awiseman/syllabus_511_2009.pdf
>One of the interesting and unintended consequences of the health care debate
>is that 73 percent of the population of the US has become convinced that
>corporate America really doesn't have the peep's best interests at heart at
>all.
>
>Corporate America, in fact, is beginning to suffer the consequences of GW
>Bush disease. They aren't believed even when they speak the absolute and
>unvarnished truth.
I am not sure anyone in the "leadership" positions understands
what "the truth" means anymore.
>
>That isn't something that can be recovered from except through catharsis.
>Americans currently have little faith in their Congress but it's interesting
>to note the plunge in that same measure when business leaders are concerned.
>
>It's results, good and bad, that really form opinion George, and they are.
Let us hope so. However from the postings to this newsgroup and
many other instances, it appears that increasing numbers of the
population are highly susceptible to propaganda and will ignore
the facts if told to do so, even when this is contrary to their
own self interest.
Andrew VK3BFA
associates.us> wrote:
>
> FWIW -- a shortage or even the disappearance of financial
> capital, while very disturbing/disruptive, is not necessarily a
> disaster or catastrophe. If a society has reasonable amounts of
> intellectual, ethical, social, etc. capital, the financial
> capital pool can be quickly replenished or restored. On the
> other hand, a deficit in the supply of intellectual, ethical,
> social, etc. capital is extremely difficult to overcome, may take
> generations to accomplish, and even if a pool of financial
> capital exists, it quickly disappears with an intellectual,
> ethical, social, etc. capital deficit. This is what makes
> another of John Carroll's observations about the creation of a
> credibility deficit for the U,S. political and industrial
> leadership so critical and applicable in this situation.
>
> Unka' George [George McDuffee]
You have raised an interesting point - money is, after all, only
pieces of paper that we "believe" has value in return for goods and
services. If it disappeared, or became worthless, and society as a
whole had enough "moral capital" it might be messy but things would
eventually resolve themselves for the better.
Alas, going on history, the people would turn to a "strong" leader who
would provide a solution as by this time they would be effectively
disenfranchised by the government of the crisis. Then, an external
"threat" would come along, everyone would rally and co-operate to beat
the "enemy" and the economy would boom as "money" was spend on
munitions etc. Sounds really bizzare, and indeed totally insane that
anyone would fall for such a simple device, but it seems to happen
with monotonous regularity..
And it seems to me, from this remote outpost in the Pacific, that the
paper chasers seem to be in charge of running things - a thought
echoed here in this group about the demise of traditional
craftsmanship. We allow them far too much importance, they have
spooked us all, and our respective governments. (Show me a bridge a
stock trader has built, or indeed anything that will last longer than
the refresh rate on his monitor) Unregulated Capitalism has clearly
failed, but continues on because its...well......just too big to
fail........and its too spooky for most about what might replace it.
When the sovereign debt of advanced western countries becomes due in a
few years, how could it possibly be paid? - we give them back their
big Plasma TV sets, or the SUV's? - not likely....and my country is in
the same position so its not me hanging it you Yanks (well, not
entirely anyway)
We do indeed live in interesting times...
Andrew VK3BFA.
PS - this is a nice OT discussion, people are using logic and argument
rather than abuse. Who knows, we might all be wiser at the end of it.
(The usual obvious Nutters excepted, but even they seem have shown
some commendable restraint)
Ed Huntress
It wasn't when you asked the question, but it is now. Whoops...well that's
the past, now. Now is the future. NUTS! The future slipped away again. NOW
is the future. NO, no, that's the past now...
--
Ed Huntress
Michael A. Terrell
Andrew VK3BFA wrote:
>
> Gunner, admit it. You cant REALLY play the banjo, can you.
Them's fightin words!
--
The movie 'Deliverance' isn't a documentary!
Gunner Asch
<VK3...@wia.org.au> wrote:
Actually...yes. Not all that well, but I finger pick and play "three
finger" banjo.
Its something I do occasionally when I get stressed out, after a hard
day etc.
I also play the Mountain Dulcimer..though even worse than the banjo.
But..I started playing when I was hummm...40 yrs old. After my hands
had been busted many times. And Id lost a fair amount of hearing by
that time.
Shrug
Gunner
>
>Andrew VK3BFA.
cavelamb
ed, I think you need a better grip on the PRESENT...
Ed Huntress
Nonsense! You CAN'T get a grip on the present. It's too slippery.
I just saw the present go by, just a few seconds ago. There's another one!
The present keeps running by!
They're all in the past now. Here comes the future...there it goes! It's
gone to the past!...
--
Ed Huntress
cavelamb
See, THAT'S your problem - thinking of time as a discrete package
rather than a wave!
Actually, though, I do seem to recall from physics that the time quanta
was something like 1x10^-43.
But that integrates into a continuas wave pretty damned well.
cavelamb
I don't know if it will help - probably not -
congress has a way of ignoring me anyway.
But worth spreading around, I thought!
HR 615
On Tuesday, the Senate health committee voted 12-11 in favor of a two-page
amendment, courtesy of Republican Tom Coburn which would require all Members of
Congress and their staff members to enroll in any new government-run health plan.
Congressman John Fleming has proposed an amendment that would require
Congressmen and Senators to take the same health care plan that they would force
on us. (Under proposed legislation they are exempt.)
Congressman Fleming is encouraging people to go to his Website and sign his
petition. The process is very simple. I have done just that at:
http://fleming.house.gov/index.html .
Senator Coburn and Congressman Fleming are both physicians.
Regardless of your political beliefs, it sure seems reasonable that Congress
should have exactly the same medical coverage that they impose on the rest of us.
Please urge as many people as you can to do the same!
Hawke
> On Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:07:29 -0600, F. George McDuffee
> <gmcd...@mcduffee-associates.us> wrote:
>
>> It is well to remember that in almost all cases the minorities
>> targeted did not CAUSE the apparent/perceived problems, but are
>> generally the result of these problems and [frequently
>> covert/tacit] governmental policies, and the designated external
>> boogie man does not represent any significant national threat.
>>
>> We are living in interesting times. Lets not make them even more
>> interesting�
>
>
> Im simply reporting what will happen.
>
> The coming Great Cull will be the end result of many decades of leftward
> drift away from the Constitution and the People finally getting sick and
> tired of it..and losing their homes, jobs and livelyhood.
>
> Socialist/Marxist/Progressives that currently control the government.
>
> Think of it as civil disobedience run amok..and striking back at those
> most likely to have caused the nation to fall so far, so fast.
>
> As Ive stated many times..I shall simply be sitting on the front porch,
> banjo in hand, playing happy riffs as the news reports and body counts
> come in.
>
> Shrug
>
> Gunner
Gunner's prediction is nothing more than his unfulfilled dreams. What's
probably going to happen is the continuing move toward europeanization.
America is becoming less religious, like Europe. It's becoming more
socialistic, like Europe. Women are playing a bigger role in politics,
like Europe. America spent the last 30 years in a conservative trend
with only Bill Clinton's time in office being the only aberration from
all right wing presidents. We are now moving away from that model. It
has not served the country well as most will agree we have been off
track for a long time, not just the last 9 months. So, instead of
Gunner's fantasy of the future what we will see is an American far more
like Europe and much less like what it used to be or what conservatives
want it to be. They will get to be on the losing end of a long term
liberal/socialistic trend.
Hawke
William Wixon
"Hawke" <davesm...@digitalpath.net> wrote in message
news:hcipgv$h0e$1...@aioe.org...
>
>
> Gunner's prediction is nothing more than his unfulfilled dreams. What's
> probably going to happen is the continuing move toward europeanization.
> America is becoming less religious, like Europe. It's becoming more
> socialistic, like Europe. Women are playing a bigger role in politics,
> like Europe. America spent the last 30 years in a conservative trend with
> only Bill Clinton's time in office being the only aberration from all
> right wing presidents. We are now moving away from that model. It has not
> served the country well as most will agree we have been off track for a
> long time, not just the last 9 months. So, instead of Gunner's fantasy of
> the future what we will see is an American far more like Europe and much
> less like what it used to be or what conservatives want it to be. They
> will get to be on the losing end of a long term liberal/socialistic trend.
>
> Hawke
interesting.
more gun control. smaller, more fuel efficient cars. more interest in the
arts and culture. alternative energy sources. abolition of the death
penalty.
Gunner Asch
Time will tell.
In 3 yrs..will the Parakeet be alive? Will he be living in Canada?
My sources say he will be dead..but maybe, hopefully ..with luck he will
make it to Canada.
Gunner
John R. Carroll
> On Fri, 30 Oct 2009 22:27:05 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
> <nu...@bidness.dev.nul> wrote:
>
>> F. George McDuffee wrote:
>>> On Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:10:15 -0800, "John R. Carroll"
>>> <nu...@bidness.dev.nul> wrote:
>>> <snip>
>>>
>>> You appear to be correct in your observation that the only thing
>>> the "rescue" programs have accomplished was the immediate and
>>> total economic collapse (which may be justification enough). As
>>> you observe, unemployment continues to increase
>>
>> It isn't the increases in the unemployed that are troubling.
>> What's bad, and beyond a point can't be recovered from, is the
>> decreasing percentage of the adult population on a payroll.
>> There is a difference. You might not have considered it but yuo
>> certainly understand.
> This is a very good point and one everyone should consider. With
> the gross change of the U.S. economy away from heavy industry and
> mass production to a [financial] service based economy no one
> knows what that tipping point is not how close to it we are.
It isn't really that hard to come up with an educated guess.
There is, of course, no crystal ball but undercapitalization is pretty well
understood and that's what we are talking about when considering a consumer
based recovery.
Get out your pencil and do a little quick math as if you were advising a
client on a turnaround. Rough out the cash flow and reserve requirement (ie.
earnings) necessary to create seven million jobs to replace what's been
lost, increase savings to 8% of income and add 135,000 new jobs per month to
the real economy. I say "earnings" because we have already gone from a
paycheck to paycheck model where people hold their own to one where people
fall behind either by depleting their savings, assets or both. The reserve
is largely gone or will be soon.
That's what will have to be added to GDP and the entire amount will, by the
definition of our hypothetical, have to come from an increase in consumer
wherewithal. 100 million employed can't generate three trillion dollars in
fresh spending unless they see their disposable income jump by $30,000.00.
The only remaining feature to decide is the time frame, which I feel would
be two years to get the desired result. Every additional year would require
another trillion and a half dollars. You don't have to fart around with a
calculator for long to understand something basic. A consumer driven
recovery not only isn't going to happen, it can't.
>> I don't attribute the significance to this that you do.
>> Not in terms of the future of the American economy. Those bank
>> failures impact the shareholders but not depositors and any business
>> they were doing gets done by the survivor/purchaser.
>> In the long run, it's a self licking ice cream cone because the
>> banks pay premiums for just this eventuality.
>> That the FDIC/FSLIC might run short of cash isn't anything but a
>> short term issue that Congress and thr Federal Reserve can, and will
>> deal with.
> In the long run we are all dead anyhow. Its the short run that
> is of concern. Many of the commercial real estate mortgages were
> used to back CDOs which are now going sour just as the
> alt-a/subprime backed CDOs did. By itself, this will be a huge
> hit, but there are large numbers of derivatives based on these
> CDOs, thus the high, i.e. excessive, leverage works just as well
> to amplify the losses as the gains. For example see
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aoRYl03Rw1_g
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDY0DAlVpb6M
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aEfyyJXNfGxE
>>
None of that will impact Joe Blow, George. Not more than it already has.
The mirage or schimera that someone's 401K is actually worth anything is one
of those, not reality.
The illusion currently parading around as the DOW is a slight of hand, not
reality.
Were you to "cash out" the DOW today, you'd get a pretty rude suprise and a
BILL instead of a check, once the liquidation was complete.
>> Corporate America, in fact, is beginning to suffer the consequences
>> of GW Bush disease. They aren't believed even when they speak the
>> absolute and unvarnished truth.
> I am not sure anyone in the "leadership" positions understands
> what "the truth" means anymore.
Sure they do. They wouldn't be able to manipulate otherwise.
Don't confuse intentions and purposes with a lack of understanding and I
don't, in fact, believe you do.
You, like most people, would rather believe in stupidity and ignorance over
avarice, greed and self perpetuation at any price.
>>
>> That isn't something that can be recovered from except through
>> catharsis. Americans currently have little faith in their Congress
>> but it's interesting to note the plunge in that same measure when
>> business leaders are concerned.
>>
>> It's results, good and bad, that really form opinion George, and
>> they are.
> Let us hope so. However from the postings to this newsgroup and
> many other instances, it appears that increasing numbers of the
> population are highly susceptible to propaganda and will ignore
> the facts if told to do so, even when this is contrary to their
> own self interest.
Been that way forever.
The exception is when crisis forces awareness and that's why I say the
latest opportunity has been squandered.
Perhaps we'll make better use of the next chance. I doubt we'll have long to
find out.
--
John R. Carroll
Andrew VK3BFA
> On Sat, 31 Oct 2009 03:51:25 -0700 (PDT), Andrew VK3BFA
>
>
>
>
>
> Actually...yes. Not all that well, but I finger pick and play "three
> finger" banjo.
>
> Its something I do occasionally when I get stressed out, after a hard
> day etc.
>
> I also play the Mountain Dulcimer..though even worse than the banjo.
>
> But..I started playing when I was hummm...40 yrs old. After my hands
> had been busted many times. And Id lost a fair amount of hearing by
> that time.
>
> Shrug
>
> Gunner
>
>
>
> >Andrew VK3BFA.
>
Andrew VK3BFA.
Gunner Asch
I had two choices in instruments to learn. Id played the harmonica a bit
when I was a kid..even did some blues in a band..but I was always fond
of the banjo..and bagpipes. I LOVE the bagpipes. Past life
recognition..whatever..but the pipes send the prickles up the back of my
neck, I start seeing old battles..the usual.
But...sigh...the dogs and cats hate the pipes..the Phillistines!..so it
was the banjo or nothing.
Sigh....
Gunner
Stormin Mormon
--
Christopher A. Young
Learn more about Jesus
www.lds.org
.
"Gunner Asch" <gun...@NOSPAMlightspeed.net> wrote in message
news:egqqe512uqqp8rvr4...@4ax.com...
Michael A. Terrell
Gunner Asch wrote:
>
> I had two choices in instruments to learn. Id played the harmonica a bit
> when I was a kid..even did some blues in a band..but I was always fond
> of the banjo..and bagpipes. I LOVE the bagpipes. Past life
> recognition..whatever..but the pipes send the prickles up the back of my
> neck, I start seeing old battles..the usual.
>
> But...sigh...the dogs and cats hate the pipes..the Phillistines!..so it
> was the banjo or nothing.
Wait till they find out it's strung with catgut. ;-)
Gunner Asch
<cayoung61**spamblock##@hotmail.com> wrote:
>Maybe the dogs and cats also see old battles?
I wonder then if its possible to reincarnate as a dog or cat?
Decisions decisions.....dog or cat..hummmm...Ill have to ponder which
one I want to come back as.
Ill get back to you on that one.
Gunner Asch
Nah..mine are steel
And the head is covered with plastic.
No anti pet musical instruments in MY home! No sirreBob!
Michael A. Terrell
Gunner Asch wrote:
>
> On Sun, 01 Nov 2009 13:43:02 -0500, "Michael A. Terrell"
> <mike.t...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> >
> >Gunner Asch wrote:
> >>
> >> I had two choices in instruments to learn. Id played the harmonica a bit
> >> when I was a kid..even did some blues in a band..but I was always fond
> >> of the banjo..and bagpipes. I LOVE the bagpipes. Past life
> >> recognition..whatever..but the pipes send the prickles up the back of my
> >> neck, I start seeing old battles..the usual.
> >>
> >> But...sigh...the dogs and cats hate the pipes..the Phillistines!..so it
> >> was the banjo or nothing.
> >
> >
> > Wait till they find out it's strung with catgut. ;-)
>
> Nah..mine are steel
>
> And the head is covered with plastic.
>
> No anti pet musical instruments in MY home! No sirreBob!
In three years you can switch to liberal gut strings. ;-)
--
The movie 'Deliverance' isn't a documentary! Well not yet, anyway!
Gunner Asch
<mike.t...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
>Gunner Asch wrote:
>>
>> On Sun, 01 Nov 2009 13:43:02 -0500, "Michael A. Terrell"
>> <mike.t...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>>
>> >
>> >Gunner Asch wrote:
>> >>
>> >> I had two choices in instruments to learn. Id played the harmonica a bit
>> >> when I was a kid..even did some blues in a band..but I was always fond
>> >> of the banjo..and bagpipes. I LOVE the bagpipes. Past life
>> >> recognition..whatever..but the pipes send the prickles up the back of my
>> >> neck, I start seeing old battles..the usual.
>> >>
>> >> But...sigh...the dogs and cats hate the pipes..the Phillistines!..so it
>> >> was the banjo or nothing.
>> >
>> >
>> > Wait till they find out it's strung with catgut. ;-)
>>
>> Nah..mine are steel
>>
>> And the head is covered with plastic.
>>
>> No anti pet musical instruments in MY home! No sirreBob!
>
>
> In three years you can switch to liberal gut strings. ;-)
Then anything that comes out of it will sound like a Marxist
Balalaika,,,,,,,,,
Hawke
> In <hcipgv$h0e$1...@aioe.org>, on Sat, 31 Oct 2009 18:50:51 -0700, Hawke,
>
>> What's
>> probably going to happen is the continuing move toward europeanization.
>> America is becoming less religious, like Europe. It's becoming more
>> socialistic, like Europe. Women are playing a bigger role in politics,
>> like Europe. America spent the last 30 years in a conservative trend
>> with only Bill Clinton's time in office being the only aberration from
>> all right wing presidents.
>
No he wasn't, but I meant from 1980 on. From when Reagan was elected we
have had nothing but conservative presidents until now. The only break
in the last 3 decades was Bill Clinton. See?
Hawke
Michael A. Terrell
Gunner Asch wrote:
>
> On Sun, 01 Nov 2009 15:55:12 -0500, "Michael A. Terrell"
> <mike.t...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> >
> >Gunner Asch wrote:
> >>
> >> On Sun, 01 Nov 2009 13:43:02 -0500, "Michael A. Terrell"
> >> <mike.t...@earthlink.net> wrote:
> >>
> >> >
> >> >Gunner Asch wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> I had two choices in instruments to learn. Id played the harmonica a bit
> >> >> when I was a kid..even did some blues in a band..but I was always fond
> >> >> of the banjo..and bagpipes. I LOVE the bagpipes. Past life
> >> >> recognition..whatever..but the pipes send the prickles up the back of my
> >> >> neck, I start seeing old battles..the usual.
> >> >>
> >> >> But...sigh...the dogs and cats hate the pipes..the Phillistines!..so it
> >> >> was the banjo or nothing.
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > Wait till they find out it's strung with catgut. ;-)
> >>
> >> Nah..mine are steel
> >>
> >> And the head is covered with plastic.
> >>
> >> No anti pet musical instruments in MY home! No sirreBob!
> >
> >
> > In three years you can switch to liberal gut strings. ;-)
>
> Then anything that comes out of it will sound like a Marxist
> Balalaika,,,,,,,,,
Or a cheap plastic ukulele. ;-)