Actually, it was a huge strategic victory and psychological warfare at
its best.
It is difficult to understand the situation on the home front in early
1942. First, Nazi Germany had conquered essentially all of Europe,
North Africa, and Asia west of the Caucasus. They had a two year long
unbroken string of victories and seemed unstoppable. Meanwhile, our
only major ally, Great Britain, was exhausted and on the brink of
disaster.
In the East, the Japanese Empire had occupied all of China's major
cities and seaports, along with Korea, Taiwan and French Indo-China.
But in the West, and in America particularly, there was nonetheless a
racist stereotype that held the Japanese to be morally, physically and
militarily inferior to his Western counterpart, and a corresponding
confidence that they could not prevail against the military might of
America, Britain and the other European colonial powers.
Then came the tremendous shock of Pearl Harbor and the collapse of the
American position in the Pacific, and the capture of Singapore by the
Japanese, which was probably the single greatest military defeat EVER
suffered by the British. Suddenly, America found itself thrust into a
two-front global war against two separate, incomprehensible, but very
real evil empires that seemed overwhelming, unstoppable, and vastly
superior to our own still rather puny and largely untested military.
The psychological trauma caused by these events cannot be overstated.
Americans were shocked and demoralized. In many quarters, civilian,
political and military alike, confidence and belief in the ultimate
victory of the Western powers was shaken to its very core, and in those
dark early days of 1942, even our national will to persevere and our
drive to win were in grave doubt.
We continued to be on the retreat wherever and whenever we met the
Japanese, and they were pushing us hard and expanding their reach all
across the Pacific. We NEEDED to do something about that before we were
driven out of the Western Pacific entirely, or we could lose the war.
The Doolittle Raid, in single daring stroke, but with relatively low
strategic risk, changed the course of the war. First, it gave Americans
at home a desperately needed boost of confidence, helped dispel much of
the doubt and gloom about the war, and proved that our military was at
least the match of the Japanese and could hit back hard.
Second, it had an equal effect on Japanese confidence and their belief
in their own unstoppable military, in the senior levels of government
(civilians were kept in the dark). The Japanese military was also so
embarrassed that they felt they could not bear the loss of face involved
in allowing another such attack on the home islands. So they were
forced by the Doolittle raid to take certain steps to prevent anything
similar from happening again.
Chief among these was their decision to reinforce and consolidate their
position in the central Pacific. This led to their plan to invade
Midway Island and the Aleutians. Because of superior sigint, the USN
was able to develop a plan to bushwhack the IJN off Midway, and destroy
the bulk of their offensive striking power, a loss from which the IJN
never recovered. It also gave the hard pressed USN some breathing room
until America's tremendous industrial capacity to make itself felt in a
decisive way.
Most experts agree that the Battle of Midway was the turning point in
the war against Japan, like the Battle of Stalingrad was in the war
against Germany. the victory at Midway was the direct result of the
Doolittle Raid, which was therefore of inestimable and unquestionable
strategic importance.