What happened to the bike boom?

[Frank Krygowski]

I've long thought that surges and declines in bicycling popularity are
chaotic, driven more by fashion than by policy or government action.

The author of this excerpt seems to agree:
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/jun/16/pedal-ins-patchouli-bikeology-americas-forgotten-1970s-cycle-boom

Want to get more butts on bikes? Instead of trying to influence
government to install paint stripes and concrete barriers, it may be
more effective to arrange to photograph a couple Kardashians riding.

--
- Frank Krygowski

[Joerg]

Looks like there wasn't ever a dramatic drop-off, almost as many new
bikes are sold in the US today as in the boom year:

http://nbda.com/articles/industry-overview-2015-pg34.htm

Corrected by the increased population it's less but OTOH the bikes that
are sold nowadays contain a larger percentage of "real" bicycles. Bought
at reputable bike shops and in the four-digit price range. Else
companies such as Trek, Felt, Fuji, Cannondale would not exist.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

[cycl...@gmail.com]

I might suggest that the Kardashians (is that from Star Trek?) actually are followers and not leaders.

Send letters to the editors explaining the advantages of bicycling. Just riding isn't enough. You have to brag about how fast you are or how your health is better than theirs. Challenge people and they react.

[cycl...@gmail.com]

But the population has grown a great deal and most new bike sales are to aficionados.

[Joerg]

From 1975 the population grew by about 30%, not an extreme percentage.
Aficionados are a good thing because that means the average miles ridden
per year are probably much higher now per sold bicycle. Minus the garage
queens, of course, but we always had those.

What had a lot to do with keeping the numbers that good are cities such
as Portland which built out cycle paths. They achieved a respectable
mode share which results in lots of cycling miles per year, and
subsequently bike sales. I can see the same effect here, just not to
that extent.

[AMuzi]

I once had a box of postcards with Audrey Hepburn riding:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-DVLxBn5pN1o/UP2ebt1oCWI/AAAAAAAADOc/DR0p_ELcg90/s1600/FLICKR+11.jpg

Corresponded on them for years but I doubt any non-cyclists
changed their behavior.

--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

[cycl...@gmail.com]

They probably didn't even know who she was. Now you need someone like Stefan Curry.

[Emanuel Berg]

Frank Krygowski <frkr...@sbcglobal.net> writes:

> I've long thought that surges and declines in
> bicycling popularity are chaotic, driven more by
> fashion than by policy or government action.

If you read the press there is always a bike boom
somewhere: Chicago, Detroit, Paris, Peking... Here,
people always went by bike but very few are *into*
bikes. Actually, I wasn't into bikes either before
I started this project even tho I've used them all my
life. Now I read the cycling press and the books I've
found in the city library. I suppose it is just the
way the brain works. Lucky me I didn't start a studio
for collecting stamps because then maybe this "post"
would have ended up on alt.collecting.stamp instead...

--
underground experts united
http://user.it.uu.se/~embe8573

[sms]

On 6/27/2017 9:06 AM, Joerg wrote:

<snip>

> Looks like there wasn't ever a dramatic drop-off, almost as many new
> bikes are sold in the US today as in the boom year:
>
> http://nbda.com/articles/industry-overview-2015-pg34.htm
>
> Corrected by the increased population it's less but OTOH the bikes that
> are sold nowadays contain a larger percentage of "real" bicycles. Bought
> at reputable bike shops and in the four-digit price range. Else
> companies such as Trek, Felt, Fuji, Cannondale would not exist.

You can't really correlate new bicycle sales to the number of actual
riders, since there are often other factors that lead to more or less
cycling.

In my area, there is a "boom" in riding but it's being driven by several
factors that aren't directly related to new bicycle sales.

1. Increased infrastructure so it's safer to bicycle, or at least it's
perceived as safer (and the increased number of riders does probably
make it safer).
2. Increased vehicle traffic so the time difference between driving and
bicycling has decreased.
3. Increased mixed-mode commuting (bicycle/train, bicycle/light-rail,
bicycle/bus).
4. More cycling segments. I see seven different groups in my area and
they all seem to be increasing in numbers
1. Professionals commuting to work.
2. Day workers.
3. Students
4. Recreational "hard core" riders
5. Bike-share riders, specifically Apple employees riding between
buildings.
6. Mountain Bikers
7. Seniors, specifically non-driving seniors from other countries
that live with their adult children.

Also be careful about "real bicycles." Besides "reputable bicycle shops"
there's a tier between Walmart/Target bicycles with a street price of
$50-150 and higher end bicycle shop bikes. Dick's Sporting Goods, for
example, sells some mid-range models in the $500-1000 price range. REI
and Sports Basement have excellent bicycle departments. Even Costco
occasionally has some decent stuff in the $400 price range, though you
get zero service from Costco (though when Cannondale did the recall for
quick-release/disc brakes, their dealers did have to fix the Costco-sold
Cannondales as well).

[Joerg]

In our area those almost exclusively only show up in areas where bike
paths or at least bike lanes have been built.

> 2. Day workers.
> 3. Students
> 4. Recreational "hard core" riders

I guess I am mostly one of those. Plus errand rides.

> 5. Bike-share riders, specifically Apple employees riding between
> buildings.
> 6. Mountain Bikers

Their numbers have increased here, big time. In part after some trails
were opened so you actually had some legal riding turf. Many truck their
bikes up from the Bay Area because there ain't that much turf there.
Some bike shop owners said the mountain bikers have kept them afloat
during lean years because they break expensive stuff all the time.

> 7. Seniors, specifically non-driving seniors from other countries
> that live with their adult children.
>
> Also be careful about "real bicycles." Besides "reputable bicycle shops"
> there's a tier between Walmart/Target bicycles with a street price of
> $50-150 and higher end bicycle shop bikes. Dick's Sporting Goods, for
> example, sells some mid-range models in the $500-1000 price range. REI
> and Sports Basement have excellent bicycle departments. Even Costco
> occasionally has some decent stuff in the $400 price range, though you
> get zero service from Costco (though when Cannondale did the recall for
> quick-release/disc brakes, their dealers did have to fix the Costco-sold
> Cannondales as well).

Yes, there is the club warehouse segment and similar. However, most of
the sub-$1k bicycles lack in many details. For example, a MTB with rim
brakes is almost useless out here as a year-round vehicle. So they end
up shelling out another $200 plus labor for a disc upgrade. It the bike
doesn't have the caliper bosses they are screwed.

Then those bikes have cheap tires and tubes so they have to replace
those almost immediately. Next, the saddle wears through, fast. Either
itself or the rider's butt. There goes another $50-100. Pretty soon the
bargain is not much of a bargain anymore.

[cycl...@gmail.com]

The Tour de France starts in a couple of days.

[John B.]

On Tue, 27 Jun 2017 09:06:01 -0700, Joerg <ne...@analogconsultants.com>
wrote:

According to www.statista.com the highest bike sales in recent history
was 20.9 million bikes in 2,000. the lowest was 14.9 million in 2009
and the last year quoted was 2015 with sales of 17.4 million.

In per capita terms that would be 1 per 13.5 people in 2000, 1 per
20.5 in 2009 and in 2015 it was 1 per 18.4. In short bike sales were
substantially lower, per capita, in 2015 then they had been at their
peak, in 2000.

As to place of sales, nbda.com (National Bike Dealers Association) has
it that. "Department, discount and chain toy stores (mass merchants)
sell mostly price-oriented products. Approximately 74% of bicycle
units were sold through the mass merchant channel in 2015".
--
Cheers,

John B.

[AMuzi]

Which is roughly the same proportion sold through general
merchandise outlets 50 years ago.

[John B.]

Who was it that said, "the more things change the more they stay the
same".
--
Cheers,

John B.

[avag...@gmail.com]

Heisenburg

[avag...@gmail.com]

Armstrong n Co presented cycling as fun n adventurous .. hard replacing the Co

But all systems rise n fall

The Lance time was anomalous

[Frank Krygowski]

On 6/27/2017 11:24 PM, avag...@gmail.com wrote:
> Heisenburg
>
Are you certain?

--
- Frank Krygowski

[James]

There may be something in that.

We have had a national cycling participation survey conducted every two
years since 2011. There has been a statistically significant decline in
the number of people cycling in this country.

Most of the news that has anything to do with cycling is when one or
more are killed or injured in a collision, or a media beat up "war" on
the roads between cyclists and drivers.

Had the propaganda been a Kardashian like figure shown enjoying a fun
pedal with friends, cycling may well be booming!

https://www.onlinepublications.austroads.com.au/items/AP-C91-17

--
JS

[avag...@gmail.com]

Of course, entropic.

Search 'loss of energy'

[avag...@gmail.com]

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 2:55:27 AM UTC-4, avag...@gmail.com wrote:
> Of course, entropic.
>
> Search 'loss of energy'

also consider the seeming gro$$ expansion of the tech parts market for fiddlers in the upper brackets.

I doahn know the extent only its advertising.

[cycl...@gmail.com]

As usual he's full of crap. It's a translation from French. It was in a book written by Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr. I believe he was quoted in a newspaper article about him in the mid-1800's. Heisenberg indeed!

[cycl...@gmail.com]

It never hurts to have a national hero doing something that anyone can do - ride a bike.

[AMuzi]

That knife cuts both ways:
https://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2008/10/03/palin-and-obama-on-bikes/

[Emanuel Berg]

John B. <sloc...@gmail.com> writes:

> Who was it that said, "the more things change the
> more they stay the same".

Indeed, who said it? I have used that quote myself and
had/have no idea. Anyway it is true. Probably in the
stone age some guys were sitting by the camp fire
musing some phrase and wondering who said it first.
Could it be the guy in the other cave? No, older than
that I think...

[Duane]

On 28/06/2017 3:45 PM, Emanuel Berg wrote:
> John B. <sloc...@gmail.com> writes:
>
>> Who was it that said, "the more things change the
>> more they stay the same".
>
> Indeed, who said it? I have used that quote myself and
> had/have no idea. Anyway it is true. Probably in the
> stone age some guys were sitting by the camp fire
> musing some phrase and wondering who said it first.
> Could it be the guy in the other cave? No, older than
> that I think...
>

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Baptiste_Alphonse_Karr

I had to look it up the first time I heard it in french and mistakenly
told someone I thought it was an anglicism.

[Doug Landau]

> Heisenberg indeed!

https://www.google.com/search?q=new+yorker+cartoon+looking+down+nose&rlz=1C1GGRV_enUS751&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjBk62a9-DUAhVIllQKHUv-AjAQ_AUICigB&biw=1388&bih=660#tbm=isch&q=new+yorker+cover+&imgrc=G7aGX09bPZruKM:

[Doug Landau]

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 12:45:47 PM UTC-7, Emanuel Berg wrote:
> John B. <sloc...@gmail.com> writes:
>
> > Who was it that said, "the more things change the
> > more they stay the same".
>
> Indeed, who said it? I have used that quote myself and
> had/have no idea. Anyway it is true. Probably in the
> stone age some guys were sitting by the camp fire
> musing some phrase and wondering who said it first.
> Could it be the guy in the other cave? No, older than
> that I think...

It was Rush, from the song "Freewill"

[Doug Landau]

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 4:33:46 PM UTC-7, avag...@gmail.com wrote:
> C is a moron

https://www.google.com/search?q=charlie+brown+kite&rlz=1C1GGRV_enUS751&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_9tbi2uHUAhULqFQKHcPfCYkQ_AUICigB&biw=1363&bih=670#imgrc=E4KnX6tT6mb06M:

[avag...@gmail.com]

C. the Heisenberg comment is humor tween Frank n me

[Emanuel Berg]

> The Tour de France starts in a couple
> of days.

I've seen a couple of documentaries on YT and
I can understand the appeal to road bike riders
and to the people who live in a region thru
witch the race passes.

Myself, I feel unrelated tho, and I always
considered sport stars to be a bunch of spoiled
and one-dimensional brats. Sports is great to
do but I don't follow them as a fan.

[John B.]

On Thu, 29 Jun 2017 03:08:11 +0200, Emanuel Berg <moa...@zoho.com>
wrote:

>> The Tour de France starts in a couple
>> of days.
>
>I've seen a couple of documentaries on YT and
>I can understand the appeal to road bike riders
>and to the people who live in a region thru
>witch the race passes.
>
>Myself, I feel unrelated tho, and I always
>considered sport stars to be a bunch of spoiled
>and one-dimensional brats. Sports is great to
>do but I don't follow them as a fan.

I suspect that one would find anyone at the top of any endeavor to be
pretty much one-dimensional. After all, to become "the best in the
world" takes a tremendous amount of time and energy leaving little
time for anything else.
--
Cheers,

John B.

[Emanuel Berg]

John B. wrote:

> I suspect that one would find anyone at the
> top of any endeavor to be pretty much
> one-dimensional. After all, to become "the
> best in the world" takes a tremendous amount
> of time and energy leaving little time for
> anything else.

With sports, yes.

But for example Neil Armstrong, Stephen King,
Reinhold Messner? Pretty much on top of
their games.

Might have something to do with the age factor.
If you do one thing from early age and with
such success, fame and the extreme focus on
something that actually is many, many times
less complex than normal life - you don't
grow up.

Michael Jackson. An extreme example - I don't
think the Tour de France guys are like that.
His onedimensionalness came with
a multidimensional twist...

[cycl...@gmail.com]

I also find the drive for the maximum performance from the human body extremely interesting. After you've watched a solo breakaway that stays ahead for an entire stage and the poor soul can hardly hold the back of the pack the next day it gives you faith that you can earn better performance with effort.