Maybe, maybe not. Barring new developments (always possible), the only
way to get any practical benefit out of impeachment is the
investigations, the negative publicity for Trump and his congressional
defenders, and the drag all that can impose on all their reelection
campaigns. As soon as the impeachment vote is over and the House hands
it over to the Senate, the Democrats lose control of the narrative to
Mitch McConnell, and Pelosi knows that. She's always known it. If
she's smart, she doesn't let it come to a vote until close to a year
from now, so that Trump's acquittal (or McConnell's refusal to even
hold the trial) doesn't end up being "last year's news" as voters go to
the polls.
Some will piss and moan about "establishment Democrats" until the cows
come home, but I think Pelosi waited until a good pretext emerged for
moving forward, a pretext that itself was closer to the election than
all the previous pretexts, which could have grown cold (and did) in the
news cycle before 2020. Trump has been guilty of multiple crimes all
along, but most people don't care about some of them (e.g., porn stars,
though the actual crime was campaign violations), and other crimes were
too complex for the average Joe to follow (most Americans did not read
the hundreds of pages of the Mueller report). But the Ukrainian phone
call was easy for most people to follow. Withholding aid to a foreign
power to coerce foreign help in a domestic election is straightforward.
I don't see someone who was derelict in her duty, but someone who had a
harvest full of lemons and is trying to make lemonade. Pushing for an
inevitably unsuccessful impeachment before now would have been impotent
grandstanding. It might have scratched some people where they itched at
first, but the itch would have just come back worse than ever.
-Micky