On Mon, 17 Feb 2014 17:19:14 -0500, Lawrence Watt-Evans
<
l...@sff.net> wrote in <news:ldu1t1$m0j$
1...@dont-email.me> in
rec.arts.sf.written:
> On 2014-02-17 15:46:54 -0500, Greg Goss said:
>>
jdni...@panix.com (James Nicoll) wrote:
[...]
>>> We may be lucky to avoid negative population growth.
>> Many of the Western Democracies are already there, if you
>> adjust your demographics by age. Canada is supposedly
>> better prepared to weather the boomer retirement than
>> most because we've brought in a lot of fairly young
>> immigrants.
>> And I think (though I don't know where to look it up)
>> that the former Soviet block are crashing even harder.
> Russia certainly is; I believe _some_ of the former Soviet-bloc states
> are doing okay, though.
> Japan is probably the worst off because of (among other
> things) their xenophobia and rejection of immigrants --
> their population is dropping steadily now. It peaked a
> few years back -- 2008, maybe?
According to
<
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/population>,
it reached an anomalous all-time high of 128.1 million in
December of 2010:
Jan 2005: 127.787
Jan 2006: 127.768
Jan 2007: 127.770
Jan 2008: 127.771
Jan 2009: 127.692
Jan 2010: 127.510
Jan 2011: 128.057
Jan 2012: 127.799
Jan 2013: 127.515
Jan 2014: 127.220
Another source says that 2013 was the fifth consecutive year
of decline, while yet another says that it peaked seven
years ago at 128 million. (Both of these were written in
January.) The graph at
<
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Population_of_Japan_since_1872.svg>
seems to put the peak a little earlier even than that,
around 2004.
It appears that Japan has been taking a census at five-year
intervals at least since 1950. There has been an increase
in each of these intervals, but the rate of increase has
been declining since 1975: the increase from 2005 to 2010
was only 0.2%.
<
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/index.htm>
The graph at
<
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_pop_totl&hl=en&dl=en&idim=country:JPN:KOR:RUS>
has slightly different data from those in the first table
above:
2005: 127.773
2006: 127.756
2007: 127.771
2008: 127.704
2009: 127.558
2010: 127.451
2011: 128.817
2012: 127.562
I suspect that the figures represent both a different
methodology and a later point in the year.
The same graph shows the Russian Federation hitting a
post-1983 low of 141.91 million in 2009 and then increasing
for three straight years to 143.533 million in 2012.
Kazakhstan has been growing steadily since 2001 after a
ten-year decline. Azerbaijan, the Kyrgyz Republic,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have been growing
almost linearly since 1960. Georgia has had very modest
growth since 2008, Kosovo since 2000; neither has returned
to its previous peak (in 1993 and 1997, resp.). Poland has
grown very slowly since 2007, approaching its 1999 peak,
from which it did not fall very much. The Czech Republic
hit an all-time high in 2010, dropped very slightly in 2011,
and recovered most of that in 2012, but it’s had only small
fluctuations since 1980. The Slovak Republic gained from
1960 to 2010, dipped slightly in 2011, and recovered some of
that in 2012. Slovenia has grown very, very slowly since
1998, Macedonia FYR since 1995. Montenegro is at an
all-time high, but the curve has been almost flat since
1990. Poland peaked in 1998 at 38.6635 million, dropped to
38.1206 million in 2007, and has made it back up to 38.5427
million as of 2012.
Hungary is just a hair below its 1960 population after
growing slowly to a peak in 1981 and then declining
steadily; it comes close to being steady-state (from 9.984
million to 10.7118 million to 9.9438 million).
Bulgaria has been declining steadily since 1988. Serbia has
declined slowly but steadily since 1995. Ukraine has lost
an eighth of its 1993 population, but the curve seems to be
leveling out. Belarus also peaked in 1993 and shows the
same general pattern, though it lost a substantially smaller
percentage, and Moldova has a very flat version of the same
pattern after a peak in 1992. Bosnia and Herzegovina peaked
in 1989, dropped sharply to 1996, recovered about 3/8 of the
loss by 2002, and has been slowly declining since then.
Croatia was nearly steady-state from 2000 to 2010, dropped
significantly in 2011, and then dropped slightly in 2012.
Brian