Review: 87th Academy Awards Predictions

[Roger Bell_West]

For the last few years I've been making predictions of the Academy
Award winners. Last year I called ten winners out of twenty
predictions. I'll update this post with the actual winners once the
results are out.

As usual, I haven't seen most of the contenders; I'm going by
reviews and impressions I've picked up, as well as my mental model of
the typical Academy voter (an ageing white man who wants to appear
progressive while not actually making anyone uncomfortable). I'm also
considering old reliable Paddy Power who as always are
[giving odds](http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/hollywood/oscars).

This year feels much quieter than last. I'm sure the usual hype
machines are running, but out on the fringes I've been hearing much
less enthusiasm, either for the whole process or for specific
contenders.

As before, I'm going to use the "should win" vs "will win" division
from [Flick Filosopher](http://www.flickfilosopher.com/), which is
where you should go for actual film criticism rather than my
maunderings;
[MaryAnn's list of nominees is here](http://www.flickfilosopher.com/2015/02/87th-academy-awards-oscar-nominees-2015.html).
"Will win" is my prediction for the award; "should win" is where I
think it *ought* to go.

# Best Picture

Wow. They couldn't even find ten films worthy of consideration.

I see a three-way split: _American Sniper_ is generic thudding
war-isn't-fun, _The Imitation Game_ is generic thudding
anti-homophobia, and _Selma_ is generic thudding anti-racism (and a
"black film" won last year). Of the others, __Grand Budapest Hotel_
and _Birdman_ are too thinky, _Theory of Everything_ ticks off points
for disabled people (combined with a very physical performance which
might help its chances), and _Whiplash_ has wandered into the wrong
room by accident.

Though there's still _Boyhood_, if the Academy gives up all its
diversity credentials for the year and celebrate the young white men
who are responsible for most of its income. And actually I think
that's just the sort of thing the Academy might do. My side bet would
be on _Selma_, since it's the one nomination in a "big" category that
involves black people at all and the voters may have tried not to look
racist.

American Sniper
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Boyhood *(will win)*
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma **(should win)**
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

# Actor in a Leading Role

If _Birdman_ won best picture, everyone would assume Hollywood was up
itself. So it'll win Leading Actor instead. Though again, Redmayne's a
strong contender (at least for people who haven't seen him in _Jupiter
Ascending_).

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) **(should win)** *(will win)*
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

# Actress in a Leading Role

Witherspoon has been getting all the buzz. From what I'm hearing,
Moore really deserves this one, but _Still Alice_ is a depressing film
and voters want to push cheerful stuff.

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice **(should win)**
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild *(will win)*

# Actor in A Supporting Role

I've not heard much buzz here. It'll probably be Norton.

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) *(will win)*
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J. K. Simmons, Whiplash

# Actress in a Supporting Role

And nobody seems to be talking about this at all. There's no stand-out
performance like Lupita Nyong'o's last year.

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) *(will win)*
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

# Animated Feature Film

_Hero_ got a big PR push, but people actually liked _Dragon_; _Kaguya_
is Foreign and Looks Weird. The elephant not in the room is _The Lego
Movie_, of course, which was both more financially successful _and_
more critically lauded than any of these. One could argue that some of
the foreign entries are better than _Lego_, but _Boxtrolls_ is
entirely out of its depth in this company.

Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2 *(will win)*
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya **(should win)**

# Cinematography

By many accounts the cinematography in _Mr. Turner_ is one of the best
things about the film; it's the only nominee that's getting talked
about.

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner **(should win)** *(will win)*
Unbroken

# Costume Design

Lushness usually wins.

The Grand Budapest Hotel *(will win)*
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner

# Directing

Oh, hey, an actual non-white person (at least by American standards)
got nominated in the Big Five personal awards. And he'll probably win
it. And he probably should.

Obviously Girls don't make films. Or write music. Or write or adapt
scripts.

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) **(should win)** *(will win)*
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

# Foreign Language Film

Leviathan's the only one I've heard of, so it'll probably win.

Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia) *(will win)*
Tangerines (Estonia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)

# Film Editing

_Imitation Game_ if it hasn't got any other awards, which it probably
won't have. If it has, _Sniper_.

American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game *(will win)*
Whiplash

# Makeup and Hairstyling

Can the Academy bring itself to give a makeup award to a film that's
basically about men? Probably not. So _Budapest_ it is

Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel *(will win)*
Guardians of the Galaxy

# Music / Original Score

Original Score is far enough from the important awards that the
Academy can dare to honour science fiction without being thought
"nerdy".

The Grand Budapest Hotel -- Alexandre Desplat
The Imitation Game -- Alexandre Desplat
Interstellar -- Hans Zimmer *(will win)*
Mr. Turner -- Gary Yershon
The Theory of Everything -- Jóhann Jóhannsson

# Music / Original Song

It's no "Let It Go", but as with last year there's only one song I've
even _heard_.

"Everything Is Awesome" from The Lego Movie *(will win)*
"Glory" from Selma
"Grateful" from Beyond the Lights
"I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
"Lost Stars" from Begin Again

# Production Design

_Budapest_ is made for this award. But actually I think we may see
_Interstellar_ take a run of minor awards.

The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar *(will win)*
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

# Sound Editing

We can't turn down the chance to kick a _fantasy_ film in the teeth!

American Sniper
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar *(will win)*
Unbroken

# Sound Mixing

And the difference between editing and mixing is, erm? _Whiplash_ vs
_Hobbit_, that's what it is.

American Sniper
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Interstellar *(will win)*
Unbroken
Whiplash

# Visual Effects

For sheer scope and majesty, _Interstellar_ does actually deserve this.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar **(should win)** *(will win)*
X-Men: Days of Future Past

# Writing / Adapted Screenplay

_Imitation Game_ gets diversity credentials. Homosexuals beat motor
neurone disease. On the other hand, if _Sniper_ gets anything, I think
it'll be here.

American Sniper
The Imitation Game *(will win)*
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

# Writing / Original Screenplay

You can be up yourself in a screenplay. _Birdman_.

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) *(will win)*
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler


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