The AO and ABC languages do not guarantee termination. It is not difficult to write a divergent loop (e.g. `[dup inline] dup inline`). I've recently implemented a 7-word fixpoint function based on the Z-combinator `[swap dup bind composeLeft] bind dup apply`. (That one tied my mind in knots for a week. :)
I do plan to perform termination analysis. Naturally, any such analysis will be partial: there will be some programs for which I cannot decide termination, and I'll just apply some limited computational effort towards such analysis. But termination analysis can improve over time, and meanwhile it also serves a useful purpose of regularly reminding developers that programs should terminate, and encouraging alternative models for long-running processes - e.g. incremental processes or continuous reactive behaviors.
What "fast and loose reasoning" does is relax the burden of proof, e.g. for purpose of refactoring, rewriting, optimization, or partial evaluation. We don't need to prove termination. We're free to assume it, and any violation of the assumption is a bug.
Anyhow, while AO/ABC don't guarantee termination, the RDP effects model does make it pretty easy to enforce termination because of how it tracks latencies. For example, I could provide a powerblock that is only good for a reactive latency of at most 3 seconds (i.e. such that it takes at most 3 seconds for bits twiddled at one location to wag values at another). A problematic program will be halted pretty easily, and the same constraints can simplify static analysis.
Re: the AO program being a signal in itself, and so e.g. a number == a constant signal
This is the model I've been pursuing. There have been a few difficulties - e.g. what are the spatial-temporal properties (location and latency) for a literal number? But I've managed to design around them. Program-as-a-signal works really well for a live programming context. Widgets, in a sense, can be expressed as directly manipulating code. I have an idea for an AO/RDP-based spreadsheet that seems pretty cool in my head, but it will be a while before I can implement it.
Best,
Dave