Stock market Approves of Healthcare Insurance Reform
mrmcafee
higher than it was on Monday the 22 the first trading day after
insurance reform past the House just 3 1/2 days ago, it appears that our
stock investors accept reform as a GOOD THING! Economic optimism reigns
on Wall St. in spite (or is it because of) this landmark legislation.
BobR
Once again, you show total ignorance and a profound lack of reasoning
capacity.
catron cattle co.
wrote:
The Dow is not presently forecasting 2014.
--
mrmcafee
Oh! I disagree. I know when I invest I'm looking to the future and 2014
is just 3 3/4 years from today.
catron cattle co.
wrote:
You must not understand the Dow, because it does not forecast that far in
advance.
Quarterly to annual earnings feed the Dow forecast.
The 200 & 400 day moving averages are the key analytics.
Going longer simply increases risk.
--
gb
<c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>You must not understand the Dow, because it does not forecast that far in
>advance.
The DJIA doesn't forecast at all. Not even tomorrow.
>Quarterly to annual earnings feed the Dow forecast.
Forecasts of quarterly earnings feed the DJIA but only in the short
term. If you forecast increased earnings, then ceteris paribus the
stock price goes up. It doesn't always go down when a downtrend is
forecast, however. Forecast a downturn properly, and provide a
reasonable rationale for it, and the hit on the stock can be
minimized.
It surely Does go down if you forecast over-optimistically, however --
quite dramatically in fact.
>The 200 & 400 day moving averages are the key analytics.
Right up until they aren't.
That's the core Joy of the Invisible Hand of the Market -- no one ever
sees it coming.
>Going longer simply increases risk.
The HPS doesn't bother with Long-Term forecasts as a general rule. Its
time horizon runs to Maybe 5 years for most investments.
We don't Do long-term investments in this country.
catron cattle co.
> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 14:38:57 -0500, "catron cattle co."
> <c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>
>
>> You must not understand the Dow, because it does not forecast that far
>> in
>> advance.
>
> The DJIA doesn't forecast at all. Not even tomorrow.
All aftermarket trades are forecasts of the next day's pricing trend.
One of the main effects of trading after-hours is the impact it has on
stocks the next day. Oftentimes, the activity of buying and selling during
after hours trading can either lower or raise the stock's opening price
the next day.
The overall trend of the DJIA is a forecast on expected earnings.
[...]
> We don't Do long-term investments in this country.
http://www.bondsonline.com/asp/research/bondratings.asp
http://money.usnews.com/funds/lists/fund-category-long-term-bond
Long-term bond portfolios invest primarily in corporate and other
investment-grade U.S. fixed-income issues and have durations of more than
six years (or, if duration is unavailable, average effective maturities
greater than 10 years). Due to their long durations, these portfolios are
exposed to greater interest rate risk
--
lein
And the Bond Market says the Democrat CBO input for scoring was a
sham.
gb
<c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 16:08:49 -0500, gb <g...@amusenet.com> wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 14:38:57 -0500, "catron cattle co."
>> <c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>>
>>
>>> You must not understand the Dow, because it does not forecast that far
>>> in
>>> advance.
>>
>> The DJIA doesn't forecast at all. Not even tomorrow.
>
>All aftermarket trades are forecasts of the next day's pricing trend.
Well, no -- they really aren't that. They may be harbingers of what
the next day's trades Might be -- but then again, they may well not be
that either.
That's one of the neat case studies from MBA school -- the times when
Forecasts are Wrong.
>The overall trend of the DJIA is a forecast on expected earnings.
Predicted != Expected.
>> We don't Do long-term investments in this country.
>
>http://www.bondsonline.com/asp/research/bondratings.asp
>
>http://money.usnews.com/funds/lists/fund-category-long-term-bond
>
>Long-term bond portfolios invest primarily in corporate and other
>investment-grade U.S. fixed-income issues and have durations of more than
>six years (or, if duration is unavailable, average effective maturities
>greater than 10 years). Due to their long durations, these portfolios are
>exposed to greater interest rate risk
Ten years ought to be considered Middle Term in the great scheme of
things. In an era where bringing out a new product line takes five
years of development before the first sale is made, a ten-year horizon
is hardly Long, as such things go.
This nation doesn't much Care for long-term equities. Bonds are a
slightly different matter -- but little attention is paid to bonding
firms that don't already have considerable assurance that there's
little default risk on the bond. Which means that most relatively new
firms don't issue bonds in the first place, for a lack of issuers.
(This also explains why capital investment in public infrastructure is
best funded through bonding. The asset is likely to be long-lived,
and the entity paying likewise. Which is A Good Thing. This aims at
public capital assets with expected lifetimes of 50-100 years -- a
truly Long-Term time horizon that the (hallowed) Private Sector
doesn't prefer even to consider. As you say -- Too Risky. But
necessary withal.)
catron cattle co.
> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 15:40:16 -0500, "catron cattle co."
> <c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 16:08:49 -0500, gb <g...@amusenet.com> wrote:
>>
>>> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 14:38:57 -0500, "catron cattle co."
>>> <c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>> You must not understand the Dow, because it does not forecast that far
>>>> in
>>>> advance.
>>>
>>> The DJIA doesn't forecast at all. Not even tomorrow.
>>
>> All aftermarket trades are forecasts of the next day's pricing trend.
>
> Well, no -- they really aren't that.
For the buyer and seller they must be, or they have both failed to justify
the additional expense of doing so.
> They may be harbingers
[...]
Semantics.
>> The overall trend of the DJIA is a forecast on expected earnings.
>
> Predicted != Expected.
[...]
>>> We don't Do long-term investments in this country.
>>
>> http://www.bondsonline.com/asp/research/bondratings.asp
>>
>> http://money.usnews.com/funds/lists/fund-category-long-term-bond
>>
>> Long-term bond portfolios invest primarily in corporate and other
>> investment-grade U.S. fixed-income issues and have durations of more
>> than
>> six years (or, if duration is unavailable, average effective maturities
>> greater than 10 years). Due to their long durations, these portfolios
>> are
>> exposed to greater interest rate risk
>
> Ten years ought to be considered Middle Term
[...]
Failure to accept standardized terms noted.
--
Using Opera's revolutionary e-mail client: http://www.opera.com/mail/
BobR
>
> - Show quoted text -
The Dow is a measure of stability. The more stable the government and
the world, the more the Dow goes up. Instability in any form will
drive the market down and the greater the percieved instability the
greater the decline. Yes, the market responded favorably to the
perceived end of the Healthcare debate because it represents some
measure of perceived stability. The Dow is not the only measure of
stability though, virtually all business entities are driven by the
same perception. Very few businesses will expand during times of
perceived unstability, especially if that perceived instability may
result in unknown for their cost of doing business.
gb
<c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 17:46:29 -0500, gb <g...@amusenet.com> wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 15:40:16 -0500, "catron cattle co."
>> <c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>>
>>> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 16:08:49 -0500, gb <g...@amusenet.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> The DJIA doesn't forecast at all. Not even tomorrow.
>>>
>>> All aftermarket trades are forecasts of the next day's pricing trend.
>>
>> Well, no -- they really aren't that.
>
>For the buyer and seller they must be, or they have both failed to justify
>the additional expense of doing so.
Nope. They "must" not be anything of the sort. The "additional
expense" of after-hours trading is merely a CODB to a buyer/seller.
Each trusts that s/he will make money on the trade regardless of the
expense. Each may Expect to do so, but oddly enough, it seldom
happens that both Can do so all that easily.
If you are trading in an Index Fund that has a portfolio of the entire
list of firms that make up the DJIA, there's some relevance of the
DJIA at the close of bidniss of any given day.
But the DJIA provides No forecast of the fate of any given stock
within the index.
>> Ten years ought to be considered Middle Term
>
>[...]
>
>Failure to accept standardized terms noted.
It's not a Failure -- it's a disagreement with the use of the term in
such a "standardized" fashion. In fact, it's an indication that the
term has become less meaningful in any given sense. When "long term"
means <10 years, regardless of whether or not that's the common use,
it still misses what Long Term really ought to mean.
catron cattle co.
> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 16:50:19 -0500, "catron cattle co."
> <c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 17:46:29 -0500, gb <g...@amusenet.com> wrote:
>>
>>> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 15:40:16 -0500, "catron cattle co."
>>> <c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 16:08:49 -0500, gb <g...@amusenet.com> wrote:
>>>>
>
>>>>> The DJIA doesn't forecast at all. Not even tomorrow.
>>>>
>>>> All aftermarket trades are forecasts of the next day's pricing trend.
>>>
>>> Well, no -- they really aren't that.
>>
>> For the buyer and seller they must be, or they have both failed to
>> justify
>> the additional expense of doing so.
>
> Nope. They "must" not be anything of the sort. The "additional
> expense" of after-hours trading is merely a CODB to a buyer/seller.
> Each trusts that s/he will make money on the trade regardless of the
> expense. Each may Expect to do so, but oddly enough, it seldom
> happens that both Can do so all that easily.
>
> If you are trading in an Index Fund
[...]
Non sequitur.
Explore your ideas for index funds in some other thread.
>>> Ten years ought to be considered Middle Term
>>
>> [...]
>>
>> Failure to accept standardized terms noted.
>
> It's not a Failure -- it's a disagreement with the use of the term
[...]
End of discussion as no standard terms apply.
--
LDosser
news:roOdnSMMTMBHCTbW...@giganews.com...
You DUMFUCK, you still don't Get it!! The entire thing is brought to you by
the insurance industry who got the best President and Congress their money
could buy.
You applied for subsidized insurance yet, DumbFuck?
Sanders Kaufman
news:hohlh2$tml$1...@news.eternal-september.org...
>
> You DUMFUCK, you still don't Get it!! The entire thing is brought to you
> by the insurance industry who got the best President and Congress their
> money could buy.
Wow, you really hate the US government a LOT.
Sancho Panza
"gb" <g...@amusenet.com> wrote in message
news:gtrnq51jg89tf3f3r...@4ax.com...
> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 16:50:19 -0500, "catron cattle co."
> <c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>
>>On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 17:46:29 -0500, gb <g...@amusenet.com> wrote:
>>
>>> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 15:40:16 -0500, "catron cattle co."
>>> <c...@gher.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Thu, 25 Mar 2010 16:08:49 -0500, gb <g...@amusenet.com> wrote:
>>>>
>
>>>>> The DJIA doesn't forecast at all. Not even tomorrow.
>>>>
>>>> All aftermarket trades are forecasts of the next day's pricing trend.
>>>
>>> Well, no -- they really aren't that.
>>
>>For the buyer and seller they must be, or they have both failed to justify
>>the additional expense of doing so.
>
> Nope. They "must" not be anything of the sort. The "additional
> expense" of after-hours trading is merely a CODB to a buyer/seller.
> Each trusts that s/he will make money on the trade regardless of the
> expense. Each may Expect to do so, but oddly enough, it seldom
> happens that both Can do so all that easily.
>
> If you are trading in an Index Fund that has a portfolio of the entire
> list of firms that make up the DJIA, there's some relevance of the
> DJIA at the close of bidniss of any given day.
>
> But the DJIA provides No forecast of the fate of any given stock
> within the index.
Tell that to the initiator of the thread who exulted that it did.
catron cattle co.
wrote:
> With the Dow at 10934.25 as of this post, which is about 250 points
News & Commentary
THURSDAY, MARCH 25, 2010 Buyer's Remorse in Bond Market?
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
Treasuries plunge on lack of demand one day after health-care reform is
signed into law. Quantity vs. quality.
THE TREASURY BOND MARKET took a hit that was roughly comparable to a
200-point hit in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Wednesday when far fewer
buyers than usual showed up for the U.S. government's sale of notes.
That this buyer's strike took place just a day after President Obama
signed into law the sweeping reform of the American health-care system may
have been just coincidence. Still, it is curious that the huge sell-off in
Treasuries came against a news backdrop that might have been expected to
boost the market, especially since it did send the dollar surging,
indicating the world was bidding for U.S. assets.
[...]
But Pimco's Bond King and Barron' s Roundtable member Bill Gross contends
the relatively high yield on a 30-year bond (compared to a less than 1% on
a two-year note) reflects the mounting unfunded obligations taken on by
the U.S. government.
In his latest monthly missive, Gross notes the discounted present value of
future social-insurance expenditures, mainly Social Security and Medicare,
total $46 trillion. The passage of health-care reform will only add to
that entitlement.
"No investment vigilante worth their salt or outrageous annual bonus would
dare argue that current legislation is a deficit reducer as asserted by
Democrats and in fact the Congressional Budget Office," Gross writes.
"Common sense alone would suggest that extending health-care benefits to
30 million people will cost a lot of money and that it is being 'paid for'
in the current bill with standard smoke, and all-too-familiar mirrors that
have characterized such entitlement legislation for decades."
In that regard, Gross cites an op-ed piece in Sunday's New York Times by
former CBO director Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who wrote that rather than
reducing the budget deficit by $138 billion over the next 10 years,
health-care reform will add $562 billion to the deficit over that span.
"Long-term bondholders beware," he warned.
The impact of entitlements is further underscored by another New York
Times article Thursday, which reports that Social Security will pay out
more than it takes in for the first time in 2010. That had been forecast
to happen out in 2016, but rising unemployment has meant fewer workers
paying into the system and more early-wave Baby Boomers receiving benefits.
One anomaly of the bond market's slide is that the yield on some top-grade
corporate debt securities ducked under that of comparable Treasuries. That
suggested that the credit of the U.S. government was being called into
question.
--
catron cattle co.
Also please note the underlying credit markets' fundamental reaction:
[...]
--
gb
wrote:
>You applied for subsidized insurance yet, DumbFuck?
Federal crop insurance, federal flood insurance come to mind as two
good examples of that. Do you have a problem with those two too?
LDosser
Yes. But, as usual, the point went clean over your head, DumbFuck!
catron cattle co.
You support people living in mapped floodplains and receiving federal aid
to rebuild there?
That's not sane.
--
gb
I do not. Never have. But you will note that thousands get federally
subsized flood insurance. Including a bunch of folks in Orygun.
And farmers get subsidized crop insurance -- even as they more than
likely vote Republican
>That's not sane.
Doesn't have to be sane. But it is Gubmint Money, is considered to be
Free, and folks go for it whenever they get a chance.
Sancho Panza
So that makes it all right and socially defensible. What an attitude!!