[Lnc-votes] [Lnc-business] Boats Against the Current

[lnc-...@hq.lp.org]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/15/upshot/how-we-became-bitter-political-enemies.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0

Quotes:

When asked why they identified as Republican, 68 percent of respondents told Pew that a major factor was the harm that Democratic policies posed, just surpassing the 64 percent who cited the good that could come of their own party’s policies. Among Democrats, 62 percent said fear of Republican policies was a major factor for their affiliation, while 68 percent cited the good of their own party’s policies.

Independents, who outnumber members of either party and yet often lean toward one or the other, are just as guided by fear. More than half who lean toward either party say a major reason for their preference is the damage the other party could cause. Only about a third reported being attracted by the good that could come from the policies of the party toward which they lean.

While we all probably know this, seeing the numbers laid out brings the point home for me.  The difference suggests, although not strongly, that Democrats may be slightly more willing to vote for a third party than Republicans, all else being equal (although all else is never equal).  

This is also why the Rs and Ds, especially the Rs, can do the opposite of what they campaign on and suffer little if any punishment at the polls.  This wasn't always the case - consider H. W. Bush's lost reelection.  But the more people choose a party out of fear of the other one, the more, for instance, the Republicans can turn against the most consistent policy position they've held for decades - trade.  Creating fear of the other rather than love for yourself is both more motivating and less dependent on your own goodness.

What I think it means for us is that many people are not going to react to anything attacking their default party, because they aren't making their decisions based on the goodness of their own party.  Furthermore, seeing an attack from us on their opposition party will not encourage them to vote for us, but in fact discourage them.  "Yes, the Ls are exactly right about the Xs, which is why I've got to vote Y to keep the Xs out."  If we're going to reach people who are voting out of fear, only a positive, inspirational message will do it.

Joshua A. Katz