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Considering our code is already written against and supporting 5.3, I'd envision that we'd still end up with a product that's mostly supporting that environment.
Longer term, 5.3 support isn't something that shouldn't have too much energy put into it.
But IMHO, really 6 months after EOL is the absolute earliest any breakage should happen, and even then it's likely some hosts won't have updated.
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Looking around the marketplace some (both CMS and Framework), there's already folks not supporting 5.3.
Us supporting 5.3 allows us to hit that piece of the market others are missing because of it, but how long would we then continue to support it past its EOL?
Another thing to consider too is that Framework 1.x will most likely in some form live on as long as CMS 3.x with us looking at trying to backport some of the Framework code into that application. Folks really needing PHP 5.3 support will be able to find it,
but I think newer development and refactoring shouldn't have to consider that environment.
Of course, if I'm in the minority, I'll happily shut up and go about my merry way; I'm just trying to get a feel for opinions right now and not just make a decision and force people to live with it ;-)
Except that a lot of hosts won't bother updating for quite some time. Sure, anyone running their own systems should be off 5.3 reasonably soon, but it'll be some time before some hosting services upgrade. We can argue that they're crap hosts, but from a users perspective, if the software they want to use doesn't work on their hosting, it's the software that's crap.
I do agree with those just telling BC is not a big issue since nobody uses the framework now.
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