Beyond Oil: Beginning of A New Era?
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DK Matai
Jun 6, 2010, 7:57:20 AM6/6/10
to Holistic Quantum Relativity (HQR)
Dear Friends
Future life forms might ask: Who were they, what happened to them?
To which the reply would be: They were primitive humans belonging to
a less advanced civilisation and they were forced to break their
addiction to oil after the Gulf of Mexico catastrophe which started in
2010. Easy oil is over for international energy firms without access
to sovereign reserves in the Middle East, Russia and Latin America,
driving an ever more desperate search for more costly supplies deep
under the sea or trapped in shale and sand. Whilst the deep water
oil gusher has caused an unparalleled environmental and economic
disaster along the US Gulf Coast, Canadian tar sands are also in the
investor spotlight over substantial pollution and influence on longer
term climate chaos. The stage is now being set for an extreme
makeover in investment flows from large pension funds, mutual funds
and some sovereign wealth funds away from the oil industry, which is
in the process of losing its "safe haven" status. This tidal movement
in investment flows will have massive, and as yet unknown,
consequences for the end of the oil dependency era.
We Are All Involved
Not just the US, the Gulf oil spill is a disaster for all of us
worldwide as supercomputer modelling demonstrates the rapid drift of
the oil into Atlantic waters and beyond in the coming weeks and
months. Whilst it is easy to lay blame on a single global oil
company, as some are wont to do, this complex issue is much broader
and deeper than that. It is a world-wide civilisation challenge. The
whole global economic system is oil dependent. Even the financial
world is an inverted pyramid resting on the fossil fuel energy that
powers world growth. None of us are excluded. We would be truly
surprised if we knew where the oil and gas burnt in our cars, boats
and aeroplanes actually comes from and how it is transported, refined
and delivered to find its way into our forever hungry fuel tanks! The
complicit nature of our relationship with the oil industry is ill
understood.
Man-made Disaster
The Gulf of Mexico gusher is a reminder that the oil industry is now a
high-risk sector where the risk profile has grown exponentially.
"Black gold" is running out and oil exploration companies are entering
more and more risky areas of operation to keep production levels up.
The Deepwater Horizon disaster has all the familiar ingredients of
deregulation, deception, and knee jerk damage-limitation that
typically characterise the relations between government regulators and
multinational corporations in crisis after crisis. Enron, Worldcom,
Lehman Brothers, AIG etc. The list goes on. It is a man-made disaster,
like Three Mile Island in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986 and Exxon Valdez in
1989.
Toxic Rain?
Not only are several million gallons of crude oil sitting within the
Gulf of Mexico, with more pouring in by the day, but the region is
relatively prone to hurricanes early in the season, which begin in
less than a few weeks. In parallel, millions of gallons of toxic
dispersants like Corexit 9500, are being dumped into the Gulf of
Mexico to add to the pollution from the oil spill. Dispersants have
never been applied on this scale. The oceans are part of a larger
precipitation cycle, and scientists are concerned that soon the
consequences of using dispersants could be falling from the sky. The
hurricanes could take some of the lighter oil and toxic dispersant
components with them and promptly drop the lot as toxic rain along the
east coast of the US and beyond. This toxic rain could be fatal for
all species -- from the microbial level all the way to humans -- no
matter where it falls, essentially collapsing the environment from the
bottom up.
Oil Consumption and Investment Exit
There is a fundamental change happening. The moratorium on offshore
drilling is to be expected given the rising public concern. This is a
direct result of the metamorphosis in psychological perception and
attitudes amongst mass consumers and return-hungry investors in regard
to the risk of oil. The Gulf oil gusher is ushering in an end to the
era of oil investment and consumption without questions asked.
Generally there has been a perception in the global financial
community that the oil and gas majors are reliable, blue chip
investments delivering a steady stream of above-average growth in
profits and generous dividends. As fund managers see billions of
dollars wiped off the value of BP and some US lawmakers want the
company to suspend shareholder dividends, large investors will
undoubtedly be keen to ensure they understand all the issues
surrounding deep-water drilling thoroughly and begin to diversify away
from their massive oil industry exposure. It is a big change in
direction since oil has played such a large role in global investment
strategy for so long. This will mean asking oil companies probing
questions about risk management, contingency planning, crisis
management and approaches to regulatory compliance etc. Investors'
scrutiny is likely to spread beyond offshore drilling to tar sands and
then shale gas. For example, the half a trillion dollar Norwegian
sovereign wealth fund, has demanded that major oil companies account
for the environmental impacts of their tar sand operations. An
extreme response to the spill may be for funds to exit oil companies
altogether, for example into low-carbon clean energy alternatives.
This could trigger the end of the oil era.
Eleventh Hour and Extinction
We have reached a collective turning point in history as we arrive at
the eleventh hour. It’s time to shape up, to get our act together,
and to find an equitable place in the interwoven fabric of nature, or
else we face the possibility of extinction of a number of species with
unintended consequences for ourselves. If everything is interlinked,
how long before we pay a formidable price as a species? Whilst these
questions may not be at the top of the mind of investment houses,
their extreme risk aversion to oil stocks in coming months and years
may prove to provide the answers that enlightened humanity has been
seeking for decades. Common sense should now tell investors and
consumers that the current industrial-scale exploitation of hard to
reach oil fields in vulnerable natural spots is an insult to
intelligence. The alternatives may be slightly more expensive but the
risk profile is significantly lower. No sensible analyst can deny
that we are bringing disaster on ourselves and the global ecosystems,
when we engage in ruthless practices, such as deep sea drilling at
5,000 feet below the surface, with wanton disregard for safety and
environmental security. The exorbitant cost of the Gulf oil spill
cleanup is likely to deter future adventure licensing and high-risk
investment in the oil sector. This is what will begin to mark the end
of the oil era, step by step, just like the Three Mile Island nuclear
accident in 1979. That accident crystallised anti-nuclear safety
concerns among activists and the general public, resulting in new
regulations for the nuclear industry, and has been cited as a
contributor to the accelerated decline of new reactor construction
that was already underway in the 1970s.
Unintended Consequences
The business fallout from the Gulf oil gusher is likely to be
widespread. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill could end up causing
massive damage to companies that were in no way involved with the
tragedy. Risks of different types of operation will be reassessed,
new rules will be enacted, and the energy business will change
radically.
Conclusion
What is the real moral in the Gulf oil gusher narrative? As the
marginal cost of extracting oil has risen ever higher, it has been a
red rag to the investment bulls seeking a return. However, given that
the risk profile of extracting that extra barrel of oil has now grown
exponentially. This is likely to act as a new deterrent. The risks
are rising much faster than previously anticipated as we approach peak
oil. Recalibrating the value we put on hydrocarbon extraction is now
the new mantra amongst oil investors and analysts. This is no
different from the changed perception in regard to bank stocks, which
were considered to be solid cash cows until The Great Unwind (2007-?)
and The Great Reset (2008-?) began. Beyond subprime and sovereign
risk, as the revelations about high frequency trading and flash
crashes manifest, coupled with trillion dollar bailouts, many
financial institutions are also seen as high risk casino players.
Similar changes are likely to occur in the perception of oil companies
as safe cash cows, which they have ceased to be.
The inertia which has set in amongst governments, businesses and the
investment community in regard to preserving the status quo is going
to be knocked sideways by the Gulf oil spill and as the costs of the
cleanup mount, it will become imperative to invest in cleaner and
safer forms of energy. The change in direction will ultimately be
driven by a forced change in our collective value system. The end of
oil-dependency is likely to mark the end of an era for the globalised
western civilisation's model of oil-centric capitalism. If we survive,
the age of oil will be followed by an age of recovery, restoration and
a return to local generation of power through alternative means. What
does the future look like without oil-dependency? Cleaner forms of
energy are likely to proliferate. The possibility of a world in
balance with natural resources, clean air, clean water, and with the
natural environment, is like a shining light at the end of a dark
tunnel. To reach a new agreement, to explore our way into a friendlier
way of life could be fun, more interesting, more gratifying, healthier
and happier! Generations to come will also thank us for this welcome
change of direction precipitated by the global financial community's
new found risk aversion to the age of oil.
[ENDS]
In order to maintain membership it is essential to provide feedback
regularly. We welcome your thoughts, observations and views. To
reflect further on this, please respond within Twitter, Linked and
Facebook's ATCA Open and related Socratic dialogue platform of HQR.
All the best
DK Matai
Chairman and Founder: mi2g.net, ATCA, The Philanthropia, HQR, @G140
To connect directly with:
. DK Matai: http://twitter.com/DKMatai
. Open HQR: http://twitter.com/OpenHQR
. ATCA Open: http://twitter.com/ATCAOpen
. @G140: http://twitter.com/G140
. mi2g: http://twitter.com/intunit
- ATCA, The Philanthropia, mi2g, HQR, @G140 --
This is an "ATCA Open, Philanthropia and HQR Socratic Dialogue."
The "ATCA Open" network on LinkedIn and Facebook is for professionals
interested in ATCA's original global aims, working with ATCA step-by-
step across the world, or developing tools supporting ATCA's
objectives to build a better world.
The original ATCA -- Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance -- is a
philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex
global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint
executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to
the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses asymmetric threats and
social opportunities arising from climate chaos and the environment;
radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics and energy; organised
crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo &
AI; demographic skews and resource shortages; pandemics; financial
systems and systemic risk; as well as transhumanism and ethics.
Present membership of the original ATCA network is by invitation only
and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 120 countries:
including 1,000 Parliamentarians; 1,500 Chairmen and CEOs of
corporations; 1,000 Heads of NGOs; 750 Directors at Academic Centres
of Excellence; 500 Inventors and Original thinkers; as well as 250
Editors-in-Chief of major media.
The Philanthropia, founded in 2005, brings together over 1,000 leading
individual and private philanthropists, family offices, foundations,
private banks, non-governmental organisations and specialist advisors
to address complex global challenges such as countering climate chaos,
reducing radical poverty and developing global leadership for the
younger generation through the appliance of science and technology,
leveraging acumen and finance, as well as encouraging collaboration
with a strong commitment to ethics. Philanthropia emphasises multi-
faith spiritual values: introspection, healthy living and ecology.
Philanthropia Targets: Countering climate chaos and carbon neutrality;
Eliminating radical poverty -- through micro-credit schemes,
empowerment of women and more responsible capitalism; Leadership for
the Younger Generation; and Corporate and social responsibility.
Future life forms might ask: Who were they, what happened to them?
To which the reply would be: They were primitive humans belonging to
a less advanced civilisation and they were forced to break their
addiction to oil after the Gulf of Mexico catastrophe which started in
2010. Easy oil is over for international energy firms without access
to sovereign reserves in the Middle East, Russia and Latin America,
driving an ever more desperate search for more costly supplies deep
under the sea or trapped in shale and sand. Whilst the deep water
oil gusher has caused an unparalleled environmental and economic
disaster along the US Gulf Coast, Canadian tar sands are also in the
investor spotlight over substantial pollution and influence on longer
term climate chaos. The stage is now being set for an extreme
makeover in investment flows from large pension funds, mutual funds
and some sovereign wealth funds away from the oil industry, which is
in the process of losing its "safe haven" status. This tidal movement
in investment flows will have massive, and as yet unknown,
consequences for the end of the oil dependency era.
We Are All Involved
Not just the US, the Gulf oil spill is a disaster for all of us
worldwide as supercomputer modelling demonstrates the rapid drift of
the oil into Atlantic waters and beyond in the coming weeks and
months. Whilst it is easy to lay blame on a single global oil
company, as some are wont to do, this complex issue is much broader
and deeper than that. It is a world-wide civilisation challenge. The
whole global economic system is oil dependent. Even the financial
world is an inverted pyramid resting on the fossil fuel energy that
powers world growth. None of us are excluded. We would be truly
surprised if we knew where the oil and gas burnt in our cars, boats
and aeroplanes actually comes from and how it is transported, refined
and delivered to find its way into our forever hungry fuel tanks! The
complicit nature of our relationship with the oil industry is ill
understood.
Man-made Disaster
The Gulf of Mexico gusher is a reminder that the oil industry is now a
high-risk sector where the risk profile has grown exponentially.
"Black gold" is running out and oil exploration companies are entering
more and more risky areas of operation to keep production levels up.
The Deepwater Horizon disaster has all the familiar ingredients of
deregulation, deception, and knee jerk damage-limitation that
typically characterise the relations between government regulators and
multinational corporations in crisis after crisis. Enron, Worldcom,
Lehman Brothers, AIG etc. The list goes on. It is a man-made disaster,
like Three Mile Island in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986 and Exxon Valdez in
1989.
Toxic Rain?
Not only are several million gallons of crude oil sitting within the
Gulf of Mexico, with more pouring in by the day, but the region is
relatively prone to hurricanes early in the season, which begin in
less than a few weeks. In parallel, millions of gallons of toxic
dispersants like Corexit 9500, are being dumped into the Gulf of
Mexico to add to the pollution from the oil spill. Dispersants have
never been applied on this scale. The oceans are part of a larger
precipitation cycle, and scientists are concerned that soon the
consequences of using dispersants could be falling from the sky. The
hurricanes could take some of the lighter oil and toxic dispersant
components with them and promptly drop the lot as toxic rain along the
east coast of the US and beyond. This toxic rain could be fatal for
all species -- from the microbial level all the way to humans -- no
matter where it falls, essentially collapsing the environment from the
bottom up.
Oil Consumption and Investment Exit
There is a fundamental change happening. The moratorium on offshore
drilling is to be expected given the rising public concern. This is a
direct result of the metamorphosis in psychological perception and
attitudes amongst mass consumers and return-hungry investors in regard
to the risk of oil. The Gulf oil gusher is ushering in an end to the
era of oil investment and consumption without questions asked.
Generally there has been a perception in the global financial
community that the oil and gas majors are reliable, blue chip
investments delivering a steady stream of above-average growth in
profits and generous dividends. As fund managers see billions of
dollars wiped off the value of BP and some US lawmakers want the
company to suspend shareholder dividends, large investors will
undoubtedly be keen to ensure they understand all the issues
surrounding deep-water drilling thoroughly and begin to diversify away
from their massive oil industry exposure. It is a big change in
direction since oil has played such a large role in global investment
strategy for so long. This will mean asking oil companies probing
questions about risk management, contingency planning, crisis
management and approaches to regulatory compliance etc. Investors'
scrutiny is likely to spread beyond offshore drilling to tar sands and
then shale gas. For example, the half a trillion dollar Norwegian
sovereign wealth fund, has demanded that major oil companies account
for the environmental impacts of their tar sand operations. An
extreme response to the spill may be for funds to exit oil companies
altogether, for example into low-carbon clean energy alternatives.
This could trigger the end of the oil era.
Eleventh Hour and Extinction
We have reached a collective turning point in history as we arrive at
the eleventh hour. It’s time to shape up, to get our act together,
and to find an equitable place in the interwoven fabric of nature, or
else we face the possibility of extinction of a number of species with
unintended consequences for ourselves. If everything is interlinked,
how long before we pay a formidable price as a species? Whilst these
questions may not be at the top of the mind of investment houses,
their extreme risk aversion to oil stocks in coming months and years
may prove to provide the answers that enlightened humanity has been
seeking for decades. Common sense should now tell investors and
consumers that the current industrial-scale exploitation of hard to
reach oil fields in vulnerable natural spots is an insult to
intelligence. The alternatives may be slightly more expensive but the
risk profile is significantly lower. No sensible analyst can deny
that we are bringing disaster on ourselves and the global ecosystems,
when we engage in ruthless practices, such as deep sea drilling at
5,000 feet below the surface, with wanton disregard for safety and
environmental security. The exorbitant cost of the Gulf oil spill
cleanup is likely to deter future adventure licensing and high-risk
investment in the oil sector. This is what will begin to mark the end
of the oil era, step by step, just like the Three Mile Island nuclear
accident in 1979. That accident crystallised anti-nuclear safety
concerns among activists and the general public, resulting in new
regulations for the nuclear industry, and has been cited as a
contributor to the accelerated decline of new reactor construction
that was already underway in the 1970s.
Unintended Consequences
The business fallout from the Gulf oil gusher is likely to be
widespread. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill could end up causing
massive damage to companies that were in no way involved with the
tragedy. Risks of different types of operation will be reassessed,
new rules will be enacted, and the energy business will change
radically.
Conclusion
What is the real moral in the Gulf oil gusher narrative? As the
marginal cost of extracting oil has risen ever higher, it has been a
red rag to the investment bulls seeking a return. However, given that
the risk profile of extracting that extra barrel of oil has now grown
exponentially. This is likely to act as a new deterrent. The risks
are rising much faster than previously anticipated as we approach peak
oil. Recalibrating the value we put on hydrocarbon extraction is now
the new mantra amongst oil investors and analysts. This is no
different from the changed perception in regard to bank stocks, which
were considered to be solid cash cows until The Great Unwind (2007-?)
and The Great Reset (2008-?) began. Beyond subprime and sovereign
risk, as the revelations about high frequency trading and flash
crashes manifest, coupled with trillion dollar bailouts, many
financial institutions are also seen as high risk casino players.
Similar changes are likely to occur in the perception of oil companies
as safe cash cows, which they have ceased to be.
The inertia which has set in amongst governments, businesses and the
investment community in regard to preserving the status quo is going
to be knocked sideways by the Gulf oil spill and as the costs of the
cleanup mount, it will become imperative to invest in cleaner and
safer forms of energy. The change in direction will ultimately be
driven by a forced change in our collective value system. The end of
oil-dependency is likely to mark the end of an era for the globalised
western civilisation's model of oil-centric capitalism. If we survive,
the age of oil will be followed by an age of recovery, restoration and
a return to local generation of power through alternative means. What
does the future look like without oil-dependency? Cleaner forms of
energy are likely to proliferate. The possibility of a world in
balance with natural resources, clean air, clean water, and with the
natural environment, is like a shining light at the end of a dark
tunnel. To reach a new agreement, to explore our way into a friendlier
way of life could be fun, more interesting, more gratifying, healthier
and happier! Generations to come will also thank us for this welcome
change of direction precipitated by the global financial community's
new found risk aversion to the age of oil.
[ENDS]
In order to maintain membership it is essential to provide feedback
regularly. We welcome your thoughts, observations and views. To
reflect further on this, please respond within Twitter, Linked and
Facebook's ATCA Open and related Socratic dialogue platform of HQR.
All the best
DK Matai
Chairman and Founder: mi2g.net, ATCA, The Philanthropia, HQR, @G140
To connect directly with:
. DK Matai: http://twitter.com/DKMatai
. Open HQR: http://twitter.com/OpenHQR
. ATCA Open: http://twitter.com/ATCAOpen
. @G140: http://twitter.com/G140
. mi2g: http://twitter.com/intunit
- ATCA, The Philanthropia, mi2g, HQR, @G140 --
This is an "ATCA Open, Philanthropia and HQR Socratic Dialogue."
The "ATCA Open" network on LinkedIn and Facebook is for professionals
interested in ATCA's original global aims, working with ATCA step-by-
step across the world, or developing tools supporting ATCA's
objectives to build a better world.
The original ATCA -- Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance -- is a
philanthropic expert initiative founded in 2001 to resolve complex
global challenges through collective Socratic dialogue and joint
executive action to build a wisdom based global economy. Adhering to
the doctrine of non-violence, ATCA addresses asymmetric threats and
social opportunities arising from climate chaos and the environment;
radical poverty and microfinance; geo-politics and energy; organised
crime & extremism; advanced technologies -- bio, info, nano, robo &
AI; demographic skews and resource shortages; pandemics; financial
systems and systemic risk; as well as transhumanism and ethics.
Present membership of the original ATCA network is by invitation only
and has over 5,000 distinguished members from over 120 countries:
including 1,000 Parliamentarians; 1,500 Chairmen and CEOs of
corporations; 1,000 Heads of NGOs; 750 Directors at Academic Centres
of Excellence; 500 Inventors and Original thinkers; as well as 250
Editors-in-Chief of major media.
The Philanthropia, founded in 2005, brings together over 1,000 leading
individual and private philanthropists, family offices, foundations,
private banks, non-governmental organisations and specialist advisors
to address complex global challenges such as countering climate chaos,
reducing radical poverty and developing global leadership for the
younger generation through the appliance of science and technology,
leveraging acumen and finance, as well as encouraging collaboration
with a strong commitment to ethics. Philanthropia emphasises multi-
faith spiritual values: introspection, healthy living and ecology.
Philanthropia Targets: Countering climate chaos and carbon neutrality;
Eliminating radical poverty -- through micro-credit schemes,
empowerment of women and more responsible capitalism; Leadership for
the Younger Generation; and Corporate and social responsibility.
alyce santoro
Jun 6, 2010, 9:23:28 AM6/6/10
to holistic-quantu...@googlegroups.com
DK, i hope you are correct. "common sense" and "sensible analysts" have become rare, having been all but made extinct by voracious greed and quest for profit. thankfully, there are many things individuals can do right now to speed your vision along:
1. move money out of 401K plans and other investment packages that invest money your for you, invisibly, into anything deemed profitable, regardless of the level of risk or damage to the environment. find out where your money is, and begin investing it in healthier ways (whether it be moving thousands into wind power, or spending $10 at your local farm stand instead of at the local fast food conglomerate). your money is a powerful political tool - boycott not just BP, but all products and services you know to be harmful socially or environmentally. do the research to find out.
2. begin to simply use less of all resources. western civilizations, and americans in particular, have become accustomed to a lifestyle of excessive waste. while i personally find a life of relative austerity to be extremely rewarding, i do not even suggest that everyone go that far - this is not about self-deprivation - this is about learning to appreciate and feel rewarded by positive, healthy, less-wasterful behavior. most people would hardly notice a dent in their "comfort level" if they strived only to eliminate excess waste (don't heat or cool unused rooms, hold meetings via video skype rather than flying when possible, ride a bike or walk for short local errands, buy foods with the least amount of packaging and from the closest possible locations, line-dry laundry on warm, dry days, etc).
3. join or start community groups aimed to assist with the transition to more sustainable practices. "transition US" has groups in many towns. join the facebook group USE HALF NOW, a brainstorming group designed for those willing to learn and share ideas on simple ways we can all begin to shift our culture away from one of gluttonous excess.
4. Even in the face of extreme adversity and the recognition that it is likely we have pushed our little planet earth beyond the point where it will be able to support life for much longer, we cannot give up. By giving up hope, we also relinquish any modicum of contentment and
peace that may come from striving for that which we know is right. When
hope is gone, humanity is truly lost.
my article spaceship earth: navigators wanted explores these ideas further.
with peace and gratitude,
alyce santoro
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Buddy Page
Jun 6, 2010, 4:39:53 PM6/6/10
to holistic-quantu...@googlegroups.com
| Hello again HQR, The oil industry is merely one symptom of the larger problem and systematic failure underway throughout this brain-dead and deceptive model of civilization. If you want to truly grasp what is coming your way, then look at the big picture. What is failing globally is the institution of money and all the great harm that it causes and perpetuates. Not only are the day to day mechanics of the system crumbling (as if the wizard that built the edifice is also dying...), but the confidence required to sustain has been shattered. For humanity to survive beyond the in-progress landing of the large flock of dark birds circling overhead, people must finally grow wise enough to manage a cooperative civilization without money and without the greedy and arrogant souls who currently rule this world, using money. If you want an accurate glimpse into the future , it is vital to grasp that the death you see before your eyes is that of a money-driven civilization, not just its most obvious failings. What rises from the ashes will be a shamed (humbled, meek...) humanity, with the proper perspective to survive and thrive without the deceptions and follies that have led us to this sad and sordid state of affairs. The tide has shifted, just as I predicted it would. Now comes the balance... Peace and Wisdom, Buddy Page ***************** Pay close attention, profundity knocks at the door, listen for the key. Be Aware! Scoffing causes blindness... --- On Sun, 6/6/10, DK Matai <dkm...@googlemail.com> wrote: |
|
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