David Cameron is on course to lose the next election, and his leadership, and he knows it. He has admitted as much to friends, who are even now using the summer weeks to debate what might be done to get the Prime Minister out of his difficulties. On the surface, normal business is suspended. The Olympic truce has been embraced by the political classes. The Games fortnight offers a respite from daily combat. But behind the scenes nothing has changed. The Government is still scratching around furiously to produce some sort of autumn relaunch that might give the Coalition fresh impetus, while Tory MPs agonise about their future and scheme their schemes.
And among the plotters, it is Boris Johnson who has snatched the spotlight away from the Prime Minister and used the Games as a launch pad for his leadership ambitions. Westminster is divided between those who now believe him to be unstoppable, and those who can’t stop laughing at the idea that he is being taken seriously as an alternative prime minister. The outbreak of speculation about his chances, or even his suitability, should worry Mr Cameron less than the reason for the sudden outbreak of Boris-mania: Conservative donors have had enough, and are lining up behind the London Mayor. In City terms, the money men are shorting the Tory leadership. This has happened before; it’s what helped finish Iain Duncan Smith.
The reason for this City stampede is plain enough. Business has had enough of what it complains is the Government’s equivocating on the economy. Mr Cameron is now routinely derided by business leaders as another Ted Heath, a failure who started on the right track but lost his way. They want robust action on tax, workplace regulation, European bureaucracy and reducing the size of government, all themes that the London Mayor made a central part of his campaign for re-election. It doesn’t seem to matter that Mr Johnson enjoys the luxury of being able to pronounce on issues over which he has no say. He has found a knack for speaking Thatcherite truths about the economy in a modern idiom that does not appear to frighten the voters.
The consensus is that recession and the absence of growth have put paid to Mr Osborne’s hopes of one day taking over from Mr Cameron. A poll for the ConservativeHome website last week found that he is the choice of only two per cent of activists; the same poll had Mr Johnson as the favourite on 32 per cent. Mr Osborne bungled the presentation of the Budget this year, for reasons that continue to puzzle those who know him. His friends try to blame the Liberal Democrats, but there was also an unforgiveable absence of rigour by the Chancellor and those around him in mitigating the political consequences of his measures. Tory MPs who once sang his praises have turned on him with a remarkable degree of viciousness. He in turn is phlegmatic, indeed he is surprised it took him so long to become unpopular. Unlike his critics who somehow imagine he is an autonomous player in this drama, he has always acknowledged that he has no future without Mr Cameron.
Mr Osborne’s prospects depend entirely on the economy coming good and Mr Cameron producing a majority at the election. This was true a year ago and remains true now. If Mr Cameron falls, so does he. In that sense nothing has changed. Equally, if they pull it off, rows about pasties and bad GDP figures will be forgotten.
But the Prime Minister is in charge; it’s his Government. He is the one who is being tested, judged and – so far – found wanting. He fills the office of First Lord of the Treasury with grace and resolve, but he is discovering that being a good steward is not sufficient. After nearly seven years as Conservative leader, and two as Prime Minister, he has still not found a personal connection with the electorate. Voters neither love nor loathe him. They respect his abilities, but are unsure about his motivation. Worse, they give every impression of being indifferent to him.
This is the summer Mr Cameron had hoped would mark the turning point in his and the Government’s fortunes. There was a time when the Olympics were imagined in No 10 as a springboard to electoral success. National euphoria helped by economic recovery would waft the Conservatives to victory in 2015. Well, euphoria there may be, but it counts for nothing against the bleakness of the economic prospect. Now the ambitions for the immediate legacy of the Games are more modest. Some at Westminster fear that they will be precisely zero for Mr Cameron; that the minute the torch is extinguished Sunday week, he will be back where he was before it all started, in a hole. All the magic that is holding the nation in thrall will have passed him by. For the country, the hope is that enthusiasm for the Olympics will translate into some kind of economic renaissance, but to judge by the tumbleweed blowing down Oxford Street yesterday morning, the opposite is more likely. If a few days of Jubilee was enough to shrink the economy in the second quarter, what will a fortnight of watching archery and eventing in the office do in the third?
Worse for Mr Cameron in recent days must have been to watch 60,000 people in Hyde Park chanting “Boris! Boris!” on Thursday night. He can only dream of achieving such popular recognition. He is reduced to a bit player in the Games, while his blond rival is everywhere, on the radio, across television screens, booming from the tannoys on the London Underground, and in the pages of The Daily Telegraph setting out his 20 reasons to be cheerful about the Olympics, including the presence in the heart of Whitehall of beach volleyball players “glistening like wet otters”, a phrase that proves once again that the normal rules of politics do not apply to Boris. Mr Cameron knows that if Mr Johnson wants to return to Westminster a way – and a seat – can be found.
It is the certainty that when the moment comes Mr Johnson will be able to call on the support of major donors that is giving energy to his efforts to make himself the obvious alternative to Mr Cameron. A few weeks ago the mayor could be seen assiduously glad-handing wealthy patrons at the opening of the Orbit in the Olympic Park. Last night, I am assured, influential figures from the world of hedge funds were making a point of attending an awards dinner patronised by Mr Johnson to underline their support. More significantly, I hear, he met Rupert Murdoch recently to discuss how his candidacy might be promoted, and has invited the media tycoon to join him at the Olympics. It is said that Mr Murdoch wants to get rid of Mr Cameron. Westminster has noted the Sun’s growing enthusiasm for Boris, and how it contrasts with the vitriol the newspaper now reserves for Messrs Cameron and Osborne.
There are still too many ifs between Boris and Downing Street to say for sure whether the audacity he is showing now will be rewarded. Far more pressing is the imminent test of strength between Mr Cameron and those who provide the Tories with their gold. It may be an internal political fight, but it is about the economy and how to get Britain growing again.
The Olympics may be the greatest show on earth, but the future of Britain remains the only show in town.
Its from the toryagraph locky
Well you should find it easy to understand then locky...We can all remember the the slogon of "it was the sun that won it"..
sorry until you can post something sensible its impossible to reply to this rubbish