To Trade or Not to Trade...

[feralcomprehension]

That is the question.

  I suck at trading the twins.  Suck.   I can't get past the "what if it really is the long-imagined home run/grand slam/RV?!"  

And I've been here a long time.  

And I'm sitting on big wins.  FMCKJ at .60 is going to pay for my kid's college, no bs.

Even so I wince at the opportunity cost- 30-50% of my portfolio has been tied up in this since '10; wtf.

My commons are probably up some.  I used to hold more but sold at a small loss when it last approched 2 from above (a year ago, I guess) and then layered back in to a smaller degree.  

I've also bought additional chunks thinking "this will be my trading block" and have parallel accounts to allow holding both Fannie and Freddy without danger of wash trades. (But I can't seem to pull the trigger.)

This really does look like the endgame, and while I expect volatility to continue the fear of being out at the wrong time (trying to be clever) and losing out significant profits for which we've waited so patiently is paralyzing.

But what if it's a headfake?  Sure wouldn't be the first time...EEeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

So how do y'all decide when to let some loose? 

[Ace]

So what you're trying to tell us, Feral, is that here come the profit-takers?

It's a tough spot.  I still have some grad school debt, but sometimes I look at it as financing a chance at par.  I could sell today, cover LT cap gains, erase school / car debt, and have a tidy sum left over to re-enter the exact same position should pps cut in half.  except for the fact that I'd also have ~1000 dollars + cash flow if I pulled the GD trigger.

edit:  I have a little spread sheet that returns taxes owed, time-to-payoff, and positive value all based on pps.  

I have not however assessed the value of a full win, either par, or a moelis conversion netting more than par  [ie, 50 pfds converting to 6 common at $15 pps].

It's a little tricky to determine the balance between what I can get from holding until some unknown best result, mitigated by the time it takes to actualize, versus what I will definitively have saved over definite time frame[s] by selling now.

If there are any handy-dandy formulae out there, please share.

Orrrrrrr I could launch a go-fundme and you can all payoff a little piece of my student debt, you know, in exchange for all the immoral support I've lent over the years.

[feralcomprehension]

"So what you're trying to tell us, Feral, is that here come the profit-takers?"

Welll.... If I'm trying to tell anyone anything it's that I can't seem to treat these positions in a fully rational manner and that maybe I'd like some input on how others go about making a determination if/when to sell.   I've missed multiple opportunities by which I was tempted at the time.

I have three separate guidelines I've successfully applied to other stocks:

1.  Layer in/layer out.

2.  If it hits a price at which you'll be angry at yourself for not having sold should it drop, sell some.

3.  When the price curve goes suddenly parabolic (I think this is frequently the algos boosting volatility for a quick score).

There will be profit takers, yes.   Will you be one?  How will you decide?

I might like to be one, maybe make up for some lost time.

[joseph s]

I truly believe that this is our last run.

I stupidly sold my tiny common position but whatever. I suck at trading the common since it is too spec, too many variables and too much dilution risk.

I have been pretty amazing at buying the preferred. 8/17/12, 10/2/14 and the summer of 2016.

I am holding but maybe swapping low rate variables for higher coupon names.

I buy BEFORE I sell when swapping out on the way up

[feralcomprehension]

"I buy BEFORE I sell when swapping out on the way up"

That's a good one, thank you!

[Jeff Wood]

I've kicked myself repeatedly the last two runs for not selling some when it was up, then selling in panic mode and having to buy back in at a higher rate. this time I was prepared. I have no intention of selling my long term holdings, but I did buy more late last year with the intention of selling it in the next run. I was hoping for 20-30 cents, but got surprised. Nevertheless I sold out on Friday. Big gains. Up even more today .. but no regrets. I accomplished what I wanted. Now I want it to keep going ... TO DA MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON!

If you bought some with the intention of taking profits early, then take profits. Greed kills.

[Duncan Macleod "Beta"]

Being a pfd also affects scenarios. Most likely the pps will cap at redemption value. So as we approach that price risk reward flattens out.
Now if Brandon is correct. There may be more. But that's us another game theory scenario

[joseph s]

I don't want to mislead but imo, it is clear that Watt was obstructing the whole thing. I believe Otting and Mnuchin now.

The reason the preferred is so low is that we have had 3 runs like this.

I swapped about 20k in low rate preferred for fmcct. Buy 1000 fmcct on a 17 limit. Once filled, sell 1000 of a low rate for 17.01

As it goes up, you swap

Not a recco

[joseph s]

I think the deal will be inked before Labor Day. Maybe before Easter

Not a recco

[joseph s]

Remember. A stock price going up does not make any of a a genius! But we feel like geniuses! Same is true for those poor people who shorted common. Doesn't mean they are dumb.

Not a recco

[tarif...@gmail.com]

So far so good LD. I appreciate your thoughts on Calabria. I sold another half of my common holdings today. I got a good price, 1.75. Going into the close, I am glad I did. As of now, I hold only 25% of what I used to.

May I ask you a question? Are you WayneZ from Ihub? There is speculation there that you are. Either way, I don’t care. I follow that guy too. I appreciate the dialogue.

Thanks.

[joseph s]

Pretending to hold the board hostage as if one individual is more important than another person is silly. Supporting Camaro although she booted most of us off. Yep. Classy move, too.

Yeah. You can post. I am not revoking it.

Ronnie tried the same. Also real classy.

The Pauly guy owns commons.

Let's boot him since he doesn't subscribe to 150 on the common. Yup. Real cool.

Well. Being a mod is not only thankless, it opens us up to stupid attacks. When we review and see the bully is the one banned or the one complaining, it is telling.

This is not mob rule. This is a very open board with allowed shared ideas, information and discourse that should be decent.

This board is run by 2 ppl that care about the investment but also are not afraid of spirited discussion and debate

[joseph s]

This board is not run by 2 robots or perfect ppl. If you don't like the way we do things, leave. Mhill is probably one of the most savvy owners in fnf land. He just doesn't post much.

Again. The 2 dictators are mhill and myself. We learned the hard way about mob rule. Ski learned with us.

Eff any of you all who think you can do it better. Make your own board. Go.

It's cool by me.

Not a recco

[Chris Roberts]

You have to ask yourself.

Why announce a plan which needs Congress now?

Why not wait for Calabria?

My intuition is that Calabria knew it was a theft - he wrote as much.

Yes, he is a free-market libertarian and may want to reduce GSEs, but RnR with specific role (i.e. as utility) is what FHFA has done.  They securitize / bundle mortgages.  No buying / selling MBS for their book, etc.  So the Moelis recap plan - just like the NWS - required no Congress approval.

If Congress wants to change the nature of the companies, they can do that post recap.  It was preposterous that Congress got to make calls on how to replace existing companies (and their shareholders) in the first place.  Dreams and visions of making (other people's property) them into government corporations, co-ops, etc. were outlandish.  Just as receivership was.  They're too big and important.

Otting seems to be rolling over and they seem to anticipate a loss in Collins Court and they are preparing for this.

Now, LD and others can trade in and out if you want, but I wouldn't be too far away from the terminals as we do know that a couple of weeks goes by quickly.

(I do trade / swap, but I always expect to sell at the bid and buy at the ask and there is almost daily some anomaly to get a few, 10 or 20 more shares)

Good luck to all longs

Chris

On Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 12:32:33 PM UTC-6, Littledevils90210 wrote:

Feral, da devil's advice is do your DD.  Roll with your gut.  Da devil likes holding Preferreds and trading Commons.  Only sell Preferreds if something is fishy or you are sitting at monster %%%%% gains.   Da devil said for almost a year da best risk reward  for commons is buying at the 1.20s.  Do not buy if its below and do not buy if its above.  Da devil sold 200k Fmcc today between 2.70-2.80.  Da devil booked gains.  That is what mez gut tells da devil and da devil do not believe this is da last run after looking into it over da weekend.  Da devil only exited FnF completely once and dat was because of da % gains.  Da devil sold during the pre lamberth run because da devil bought 50s at about 60 pences.......Sold all by 20.  Da dinking is da devil is willing to leave monies on da table (which mez did, high was 22-24ish)  Da devil would have bought back in at 25 with less shares and take the remaining 50% if da devil dinks we end there.  Da math from .50 to $20 is easy.....60cents to $20 is 3800% and 25 to 50 is 100%.  Da devil booked.  Da risk/reward for not selling was poor.  Da basis is much higher nowadays of around 4.80......so da devil no longer have da uber cheap .60 dillemma to deal with.......ANYWAYS.....da devil mumbling now....

Admin said they will reveal a plan to end da cship but will not put a timeline on it.  Da devil grappled about plans......details of plans (%) can also change if its not final....fnf can draw and how does that effect da plan?  Da details are important.  

Da devil after DDing Calabria pegs dis as a likely utility model over a Recapper run.  Dat has always been da MOMO club conclusion. A utility.  With dat mindset, da devil trades in and out of commons with ease because da devil holds preferreds as insurance.  Da devil will take 100% plus anyday.

This is not a recommendation....Each goober makes up his/her own minds......go figure...devil 

[Chris Roberts]

Furthermore - AIG and Citi did not take 10 years.  It took weeks or months.  They converted preferred (or offered).  They always had options and the options on GSEs have been percolating a long long time... Moelis has been around for 1.5 years.

Moelis did not envision debate with Congress.  Moelis gives the plan and everything on a silver platter, and we know they not only submitted the Blueprint but there was mentions of meetings with Treasury.

The FHFA questionalire had people respond to the Moelis 3.24% ratio suggestion.

DeMarco and others see this... they say... oh, now that the results are in... lets have another round of debate and maybe we can gain some influence.  FWIW, I don't think so.  I think they have the plan, they will introduce the plan. They might have to go to the Hill and explain the whys:

It meets all of the MBA objectives - with potential for break-up down the line

Gets them out of c-ship

Pays a commitment fee to govt.

Has private capital in front

SIFI status

All of it.

We shall see, but I think the plan will be pushed through, esp. if tomorrow shows that 16 judges are looking to give a W to plaintiffs.

Fingers crossed.

[SimSla]

If we win Collins (or Sweeny) you can forget about Moelis. Moelis pretends the Gov did not do anything wrong. Moelis is a plan you could wish for before the NWS was implemented.Today we have over 30 lawsuits with many pissed off people. I don't know about you but i am not willing to settle just because the Gov has decided to throw us a bone and i suppose many of the plaintiffs feel the same way. They will have to give up a lot in order to settle the lawsuits.

[Guido da Costa Pereira]

Well said SimSla. Agree with you. But, to my knowledge, the only posters here who have filed lawsuits are Bryndon and Chris. Chris appears to be willing to accept Moelis, whereas, Bryndon has been very eloquent in his opposition. With all due respect to Chris and other supporters of Moelis, I hope Bryndon prevails.

Bryndon - you have my support. Let me know if there is anything I can do towards promoting our common cause.

[tarif...@gmail.com]

Chris- 

"Why not wait for Calabria?"  

Calabria is not a part of the announcement forthcoming?

"Otting seems to be rolling over and they seem to anticipate a loss in Collins Court and they are preparing for this."

I hope so.  Do you think the upcoming announcement is because of Collins moving forward?

  
On Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 3:15:36 PM UTC-6, Chris Roberts wrote:

[Chris Roberts]

As many note. En banc is a big deal. There will be a lot of scrutiny and explaining. They have willett and brown and other opinion to review. As for the lawsuits most are looking for end of NWS. Only some deep throat exposer. I don’t know what that would be. But seriously no one has gotten far with the challenges even though obvious the death spiral was a lie. We shall see but I think most everyone is happy with full rv. Maybe not Brunson. Maybe not me if I see some cracks

[tarif...@gmail.com]

LD- I did not mean to imply that you are Wayne. I met the guy on ihub. I did not know there was an issue here. I am impartial. I respect everybody.

[joseph s]

Chris Roberts: Thx for the post. Yeah. Could be interesting tomorrow.

Not a recco

[tarif...@gmail.com]

What is up with all the deleted messages?

LD- commons are down. Is this temporary in your view or is this going to new highs after a breather? Are you buying back the commons you sold?

[feralcomprehension]

LD has left the building.

[tarif...@gmail.com]

What? Why? I was hoping to bounce off a few questions on commons to him. We are down today.

[feralcomprehension]

I'd characterize his departure as having resulted from philosophical differences with the board ownership.   

Yes, down today.  Are you surprised?

[tarif...@gmail.com]

That sucks. Does it have to do with yesterday and the deleted posts?

[feralcomprehension]

Yes, but which came first?

At this point the cause is academic.

[tarif...@gmail.com]

I think I saw enough of this board. Its back to Ihub for me. I did learn a few things from LD the short time he was here. The guy have friends amongst haters on ihub. That is telling. Good luck compadres. Catch you guys on ihub.

[Pack a Baggie]

leave it to this board to slam my ham in the doorway as they leave me holding this turd.  thanks for the stock tip gentlemen.

[Doris Ng]

Packabaggie: you should read LD's Calabria piece. Wait, that got deleted too. Why have a board if the admins will just run people off? You can add me to the list of people who left. I am a small fish preferred holder anyways. Good luck and bye guys. God bless.

[Pack a Baggie]

Mark Calabria won't give us one dime. Bought and paid for.

[Europegoodold]

Not today :-)

For those, who are all in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ph7oZnBH05s

Am Dienstag, 22. Januar 2019 16:59:02 UTC+1 schrieb feralcomprehension:

That is the question.