:-)

[Little Devil]

💲🚀🚀🚀 💲💰💲💰.....go figure....devil

[XXX]

LOL

[feralcomprehension]

11 fucking years... I dunno that qualifies as Moooooooona Soooooona!

[Jeff Wood]

The money rocket is taking off .........  to da moooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnn!

[Brian L]

💰💸💰💴💰💵💰🤑, hopefully your money robot is about to appear.

[XXX-XX-XXXX]

And to Carney and all the other nonbelievers who called us bag holders these last 11 years🖕

[IAmJ_1]

LD,

Welcome Back.  I hope that all goes well with the rest of your Trifecta.  You have been missed here.

Have a Blessed Day!

IAmJ_1

On Saturday, September 7, 2019 at 2:20:44 PM UTC-5, Little Devil wrote:

💲🚀🚀🚀 💲💰💲💰.....go figure....devil

[Little Devil]

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀💲💲💲💰💰💰🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀💲💲💲💲💲💲💰💰💰💰💰.....go figure....devil

Fnf is a buy all around......Ps should be RV....If NWS is struck from the beginning, commons will have a monster % gains from here and even more from the 2s and 1s...obviously...da devil bullish on fnf....not da market dough...but on da trifecta....commons break 3.50 wez going straight to 4.20....trade commons...also hold a few....Ps are just a long term hold for RV....nutding wrong with dat...go figure...devil

[seysmont]

Hello. Long time no see.

I have a question about CTs. Where did you read about non dischargeablility? I was thinking about outcomes, and I'm sure even if they are non dischargeable, there will be a settlement to sign off on satisfied in full for whatever the settlement will be. THere is zero sense to roll them over into a NOL structure. Also not sure why would they pay with NOLs.

[Little Devil]

Money Robot is activated!!!!....good signs....da premise still remain...NWS have to go....and finally a ruling with teeth came wez goober way....if wez get rid of NWS, dilution wont matter much....da devil holding Ps and will buy more on dips and more and more commons each day. Da MOMO club bout 30k at tree...wanted to see tree first befoe buy....and it came.....go figure...devil

[Little Devil]

Seysmont....read da letter EH sent to judge Chapman. Its one of da moe recent dockets. A few updates.

1. Wez in Appeals. Plan Admin did not respond much to da Appeals but did a data dump. Da devil likes da chances of da appeals betta Dan da original motion....

2. Non dischargability has been notified to judge Chapman, trustee, US trustee, plan admin and LBHI

3. Da biggest ding Chapman fail to recognize in da original motion is da motion was brought forth with the status of da trustee and pointed out on da Appeals and da judge did not rule on any of da arguments of da motion. So it's in appeals and da district judge will decide.

Da devil planning to make big big huge O monies here...watch...da trifecta is all for history to judge....go figure...devil

[seysmont]

I hear you, but if NOLs are in play, and nobody drops $50B in NOLs, then if nothing is settled, we travel as sub debt to the NOL entity. Who would allow that to happen? So I expect the trustees to settle before NOLs are in play. I'd guess something between $2.50-$5.00. If NOLs are not in play it's a wipe out. If there is a miracle and they don't deal with subs, it's literally par + interest (?). I just don't see the par scenario unless the BK admins are completely incompetent.

[Little Devil]

"In parity with the most senior preferreds or preference stock of LBHI and its affiliates"

LBIE class A was issued after the CTs. Its RV is 1000 a share.

ECAPs settled but terms not disclosed.

The plan admitted that the global guarantee is valid.

Anyways, da devil is here to make monies. All that da devil wants to say is said. We now let history judge da trifecta.

[seysmont]

I don't think ECAPS are that important. I think they indicate NOLs are coming, but non dischargeablility is very important. Can't have that and NOLs, so have to settle. Unfortunately we are represented by the trusts who can settle lower, but with NOLs it's non zero securities. If they roll over into NOLs entity, oh buy is this a crazy trade.

[Little Devil]

NOLs are there. It's more than NOLs. RV is achieved with the "parity". LBIE pref A shares are 1000 makes CTs RV.

Non dischargability guarantees the reissuance of the subdebt back to the CTs before it can be discharged. Values in average case studies is 8-50%. Thus my 2-25, the 2 at the low end.

NOLs can be reached either way. Non discharge is important because it prevents the CTs discharge. Without it, they can discharge the CTs along with class 10, 11 12 and remaining debt and give " Lamco" to senior debt. Nondischarable is crucial for NOLs or any payout or to claim post bk company. There is no doubt there will be one. Da devil will be judged by history on da trifecta during da financial crisis period of His to ry.

Back to fnf....da devil is heavy on Ps and still.likes Ps...also have Cs..Cs are trading stock to accumulation....da devil have a nice position 2.40s -3....

WaMu is just WaMu....1st trifecta to.complete although da devil still have escrow shares....go figure...devil

[me andyou]

Cha ching at 4 close? Stampede, but still tamed. 4 is a good base at this point.

[Brian Adams]

I think there will be one more weak hand shakeout, but we'll see!

[Little Devil]

4.20 is likely to be hit tomorrow. Then da numbers signal a pullback which da devil dinks is a breather. Wez should hover I da 4s until more news. 4s is a good assessment point....go figure...devil

[feralcomprehension]

I told myself that the next time they surged I'd sell some.   This is a paradigm shift, however, so I find myself unwilling to do so.

On Saturday, September 7, 2019 at 3:20:44 PM UTC-4, Little Devil wrote:

💲🚀🚀🚀 💲💰💲💰.....go figure....devil

[IAmJ_1]

LD,

Do you have any preference for yourself concerning the four Preferreds, of course understanding you are recommending no security to anyone?

IAmJ_1

[Brian L]

Seys:

While I'm certainly not well versed on the Lehman BK, here's iwhat I researched on the guarantee from the NQ prospectus:

 Pursuant to and to the extent set forth in the guarantee, Lehman Brothers Holdings will irrevocably and unconditionally agree to pay in full to the holders of the preferred securities and common securities, on a pro rata basis, as and when due, regardless of any defense, right of set-off or counterclaim which the trust may have or assert, the following payments without duplication

Start on page 21:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806085/000104746905000357/a2149684z424b2.htm

[Little Devil]

They are the same imo but I like OLD. THEREFORE K,L M N. I Bought my fred prefs that way too but with the old symbols not the fmcc? Symbols and factor in value.

I like Ns the least. I dont know why...go figure...devil

[seysmont]

Thanks, Brian. The idea here is NOLs bring forth the need to settle the sub debt. And that's where the play is. If they don't settle them, they roll over to the new NOL entity. So more than likely they will be settled before NOLs came up like ECAPs. The trusts will sign satisfied in full. I think non dischargeability in this case means they roll over to the NOLs entity if the issues are outstanding. I don't know why settlement with ECAPs will bring forth the same settlement, it's just a settlement. They should, but not sure they will be paid the same. Very roughly they are an impediment to floating NOLs. Without NOLs there is no play.

[IAmJ_1]

LD,

Thanks.  I guess I should have clarified that I was OT for FnF.  I meant Lehman.

THanks,

IAmJ_1

[Chris Roberts]

Hold tight until 4s and some settling in.

Even Mad Ivan Boltansky comes out with $7.75. BUY target.

News getting out.

People bought in $2s & now $3s have their lottery ticket.... there may be a lull... and they get bored... but then again maybe not.

GL

[feralcomprehension]

Those are the lehman CT tickers, or rather, the differentiating letters. I have 10k each lehnq and lehlq. Sitting on 77% losses in each ATM, hoping the devil is right again.

[Brian Adams]

After a long wait, we could have some catalysts happening quickly. SCOTUS Appeals and cert news, September sweep (or no sweep!), Lower court (summary?) judgment, a settlement announcement?, capital rules announced, ... All plausibly before the end of the year.

[Little Devil]

Da devil likes....lehKq, lehLq, LehMq and lastly LehNq. Dat is fa order

But...da devil likes value...when da devil buys...da devil buys da one wit da cheapest bid. 10% above bid plus da signature for da MMs.....0009....feel free to use da signature....go figure...devil

[Little Devil]

7.75 buy target is too high....4s are a good base. 3.8 to 4.8.....so 4s...it reaches 5 without news.....sell all and book da gains and regroup...at 4s it's a toss up to hold or sell....

Da devil so far wit what news is out there dinks Ps are golden at RV which means Cs now have value...conservatives will peg 3.5 but da devil sees 4s...wit more good news...even higher....for now...4s..go figure...devil

[Brian Adams]

I assume $7.75 is a year out.

Depending on events, that is achievable and more. Seems like a fair risk-reward calculated target.

[IAmJ_1]

Feral,

Thanks.

IAmJ_1

[IAmJ_1]

LD,

That's what I was looking for.  That info went away , so it is good to see it , and you, back.

Thanks,

IAmJ_1

[G. Buckman]

Brian, I was wondering the same on his timeframe.  Has anyone seen a timeframe (I haven't) associated with the Boltansky FNMA $7.75 price target? 

TIA.

On Monday, September 9, 2019 at 11:28:40 PM UTC-4, Brian Adams wrote:

[Chris Roberts]

I believe Boltansky couldn't say $12 from $1.

He picked the middle.

Not to worry about HIS timeline, but Mnuchin & Calabria.

End NWS

Keep earnings

Discussions on Explicit g-fee

Recapitalization

Mnuchin says 3 to 6 months.

We may get shorts coming back if there is a lull, but NWS announcement could come any time.

[Little Devil]

Come up wit  you own guestimate.  Dont rely on others.  Da devil's hypothesis/analysis is 4ish....3.80-4.80 on current news and trends.  its 2 days short on volume but whatever....Ps are hard to come up with ranges because of the volume......at 3s Cs are a buy until more factors become available for new data......so far so good...it no no go straight up...as long as it trends up its good.......FNF Ps and Cs are looking good.,..go figure...devil

[Little Devil]

ending NWS is KEY!!!!

On Tuesday, September 10, 2019 at 11:15:23 AM UTC-5, Chris Roberts wrote:

[Chris Roberts]

LD - Welcome back!

Yes, Mnuchin said today, working on ending NWS and building capital. Plus.

Crapo or Brown - think Crapo - said "GSE utility" a couple of times - and didn't choke on the phrase.

Mnuchin said 3-6 months.

Nothing today gave me pause. This group always plays close to the vest... so no shockers.

What is missing is a timeline for any Leg. action. I mean, someone mentioned it had been years since they had any markup... well... there wasn't a follow-on... like, so can we get something together in the next couple of months... before Mnuchin acts... crickets....

There is nothing coming from Congress and Mnuchin is 3-6 months away... and NWS lays the first brick.

See you soon... in Vegas... or maybe E-

[seysmont]

Mnuchin is the same as Hank Paulson. How long did it take him to use the bazzoka? As soon as he got it. Mnuchin has the bazooka now. Same thing, different side. Funny enough FNMAS was $14 on the dot when c-ship was introduced. It will be $14 when whatever Mnuchin has will be introduced. It's literally the mirror image of 2008. They can't take their time. There is MBS market and agency bonds markets hanging in uncertainty. We have a repeat of .com bubble and inverse on 2008 here. Same players, same methods, same results. .con replacement was housing. It's the same playbook.

[Little Devil]

All da devil knows is da talk of zero interest rates is coming is scary. Another thing, how do you read da inverse yield curve in reality?   The stock market as we know it is broke.  Da devil is starting not to like me Anaysis anymoe because da fundamentals of da system are changing.   What data can you rely on nowadays for da economy?  We had no issues when da world was at peace (meaning Russia and China are passive).  Now that they are not, and they are diversfying their foreign reserves, currency and technology, and being more assertive.  The most scary thing is they are moving more and more to the gold standard.  When they are there, what will happen to the current system.  The yaun is backed by gold with 1.5 billion people.  What would the exchange rate be?  What will happen to the dollar?  its backed by nukes but russia and china have nukes too.  everything starts with the dollar from interest rates to treasuries to valuing commodities etc etc.  China cannot  go back to the gold standard.  If they do, the global western financial structure will change.  

ken Griffin got it right.  BUY real estate and commodities.  Da devil likes land....like 20 acres for 750K in Montana....da goal is to buy 1000 acres of land across DA US over da devil's lifestime and to have a RE porfolio of about 5 + properties (net land).......buy land and lots of it....Da day of reckoning starts when Trump starts to sanction chinese offiicials or elites.  

As a goober....der is nothign we can do but trade da markets and take it as it comes.  FnF equity IMO now will survive.  It is a matter of how much we will make.  the Ps IMO will get RV.  so that is easy money....da question remains is playing the risk on commons.  Dat question is how much will da new utility be worth.  mez dink a utility is coming from congress at da end....if goobers dont like da word, lets say how much da recap and release entity be worth?  Same CH it!!!den we put in our wager.....wit da current news...da devil guestimate 3.80-4.80...da devil dinks with a good conversion Cs can see 12 at da end.  Da entry price for Cs if you are a P hard nose holder is about 7ish.  Until then, you are better buying Ps.  Yes, the entry price if you are smart is about 7 bucks for fmcc.  That would mean Ps are supposed to hit RV.  After RV is acheived then you look at Cs.....Dat is what smart goobers do...but da devil is not smart....da devil likes to buy 3s and hold some at 2s to trade....da devil wont mind holding a healthy C position long term to play the risk....go figure....devil

[seysmont]

Ditto this.

One thing I want to add. BTC pay ~5% a month in borrow at the exchanges. That also is a way out in 0% interest world.

On Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 11:14:38 AM UTC-4, Little Devil wrote:

All da devil knows is da talk of zero interest rates is coming is scary. Another thing, how do you read da inverse yield curve in reality?   The stock market as we know it is broke.  Da devil is starting not to like me Anaysis anymoe because da fundamentals of da system are changing.   What data can you rely on nowadays for da economy?  We had no issues when da world was at peace (meaning Russia and China are passive).  Now that they are not, and they are diversfying their foreign reserves, currency and technology, and being more assertive.  The most scary thing is they are moving more and more to the gold standard.  When they are there, what will happen to the current system.  The yaun is backed by gold with 1.5 billion people.  What would the exchange rate be?  What will happen to the dollar?  its backed by nukes but russia and china have nukes too.  everything starts with the dollar from interest rates to treasuries to valuing commodities etc etc.  China cannot  go back to the gold standard.  If they do, the global western financial structure will change.  

ken Griffin got it right.  BUY real estate and commodities.  Da day of reckoning starts when Trump starts to sanction chinese offiicials or elites.  

[Jacob Steele]

Wow Devil!  Where did all this sky is falling bunk come from?

Since you went there, I'd suggest not heavily investing in anything.  Bury your money.

To go a little sky is falling myself - if the Democrats ever regain complete control, it won't matter how much land you own, account balances, etc..  They will be coming after all of it.

[me andyou]

Going back to price valuation, now is the best time for secondary offering since markets at all time high now. PE ratio has expanded vs. 5-6 yrs ago. I think 20 PE may still be a good valuation for secondary. GSEs are one of a kind, so hard to peg against similar companies. If they are more like quasi utilities, it may be even higher. I still can't believe some utilities trading at 60 PE. That's crazy.

[me andyou]

Going out on a limb and will say commons will outperform prefs on the legs up and underperform on legs down. As it stands, commons are now way under valuation since prefs are priced at over 50% par for the liquid 25s.

[Little Devil]

Its not gloom and doom.  Its just prudent to hold REAL Assets and not all paper.  Its not even paper nowadays HEHEHAHA....changes to da markets are coming.  Da devil dont believe da dolla will be replaced anytime soon but it is reasonable to think that there might be challeges to da dollars dominance.  Da devil no no dink any single country can over take da dolla in a fake money world.  But, there is a possibility a country can if their monies are not fake and da dolla is.  If that country is close to a gold standard and have da largest economy in da world?  (IE CHINA) then there is a possibilty.  But da devil still peg that not a threat in da next 20 years.  China would have to buy lots of gold.  That is da hedge against red white and blue goobers (der gooberland)....so why not take n insurance policy in buying land and RE.  

another thing is if the predictions are true and global warming swallows up islands and bring inward shorelines, lands in mainlands all over da world should go up in PPS.  You can buy land cheap now, hold and hand it down to little goobers in da future.....da grandkids goobers....1000 acres can be bought cheap now but in a 100 years IF there is a land shrinkage, grand or grand grand kids goobers will be taken care off.

Back to FnF,  You cant go wrong with buying Ps.  So anything up to 60% of RV should be a no brainer buy.  And buy 50s for value.  Its all % gains not volume.  Da devil sees Ps going to or close to RV.  Commons are a buy technically after it hits 7 bucks.  da devil can see commons hitting 12 maybe 14 even after dilution.  so what you make off da commons if you are a P holder is 12 or 14 minus 7 which is 5-7 more dollars or you see a 10-15% more profits if you were to buy play Ps and Cs together (DA WHOLE FNF)

if you only hold C, buy at da cheapest levels.   Da devil sees Cs between 8-14.  more so 10-14 range at da end.  those are da expectations.  if it goes higher, then even better....just dont RS or go lower dan 8 HEHEHAHA......go figure...devil

[Little Devil]

60 PE?  now dat is high and unreasonable.  Esp if manny is pushing competitions to also benefit from the explicit guarantees.

[me andyou]

Ps will not go to RV until it's over, which will shoots straight up right away. Until then, I can't see Ps going higher than 18-20 for the 25s. Definitely, 20 will be profit taking point for alot of people... no point holding for 25% gain if it's not over soon.

[Little Devil]

Da devil no no see Ps reaching 80% of RV without a clear path announced.  40-50% yes, maybe even 60% but not 80%.  AND YES....goobers please take profits along da way...just a suggestion!!!

25% is still good monies...da devil will take 25% any day.  Da devil plans to max out Ps opportunities as much as possible while also playing Cs....go figure...devil

[joseph s]

I figured that you would stick to Camaro and Catbird 's board because it was so superior.

Hmmm

Go figure

[Little Devil]

I was not on that board.  I took a vacation with posting on ihub, yahoo and google.  By you saying that they are superior you must to some degree feel that way!!.....for each der own....go figure...devil

[Man in the Moon]

Glad you’re back!

[joseph s]

Maybe they are superior and they need you....

[joseph s]

Eh. I could care less if you are here or not. I don't see the value.

The board goes on and has excellent contributions from many.

I think by posting here, you admit the format is better.

Trying to make demands is not cool in my book.

Not a recco

[Jeff Wood]

I don't normally disagree with Joseph but I for one am glad to see you back LD. Your contributions are significant. And sometimes funny!

[Europegoodold]

No travel to the moon without LD :-)

Am Samstag, 7. September 2019 21:20:44 UTC+2 schrieb Little Devil:

💲🚀🚀🚀 💲💰💲💰.....go figure....devil

[neo]

Da greatest trick da devil will ever pull is convincing da world da senior preferreds never existed.... wind up da money robots 

[joseph s]

I threw out the "superior" thing because of the past comments saying the highly esteemed Camaro and Catbird were *paraphrased: "much more fair".

He said that he was leaving and not returning. So it is curious how he shows up as we are winning big time to "advise us all"

Coolio though, I will simmer but expect zero attacks if he wishes to stay. The board will be moderated as usual.

The board was fine without LD drama and I expect Lehman to stay on the Lehman board for speculation in that paper. I expect escrow receipts in that situation will be mailed shortly anyways....

Not a recco

Did I mention that I will simmer?

[joseph s]

Maybe. Maybe not. Look at ihub. Moderaters immediately delete any negative comments directed towards the mods.

Make your own board with devil as the leader if you so chose.

You can throw out Justice Janice comments all day. Cool.

I don't care if this board stays or goes. What I won't have is people casting stones when they have never managed a board.

MH and I consult each other and run it how we do. I have a better group of folks that are much kinder than attacking Glen, MH, Paulie or whoever.

Leave and make another board if you don't like it.

I will simmer and likely follow ihub protocol and just delete stuff. Glen and others complained about good posts gone...

Not a recco